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百年建筑调研：资金和需求边际好转，建材价格或偏强运行-百年建筑网
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class='time'>作者：金央央</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="8558" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">一、核心观点</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">宏观方面，8月百强房企销量跌幅扩大，专项债发行集中度高位回落；供给方面，<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1001-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>水泥</a>窑线运转率回升，超过去年同期水平，钢厂利润回升，小幅增产；库存方面，水泥及<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>库存去化较好，尤其是华东、华北和西南；需求方面，下游需求环比好转，基建强度大于房建；成本方面，原料价格小幅探涨；心态方面，商家挺价意愿较浓。综合来看，预计本周<a href='https://m.100njz.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>建筑材料</a>价格或震荡运行。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">二、正文</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">1. </span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">重点事件聚焦</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">1</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">） 建筑：样本工地资金到位率边际好转</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">据百年建筑调研，截至8月27日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为62%，周环比上升0.02个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位率为65.02%，周环比上升0.10个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为45.32%，周环比下降0.61个百分点；在手项目数增速持平，较上期增加1.13个点。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">本周资金到位率边际好转，主要受基建及市政项目资金改善的支撑，而房建资金已连续三周下降。具体来看，福建、广东和陕西的非房建项目资金有所好转，浙江、福建有部分房建样本工地资金恶化。据了解，近期地方专项债落地速度有所加快，或进一步改善9月建筑业资金及建材需求。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center; text-indent: 21pt;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 314.179px; visibility: visible;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/f7a109ecef6d437d84af62a6deee4b1d.png" width="600" height="314" /></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">2</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">） 建筑业：8月建筑业PMI走弱，主要拖累项在投入品价格和销售价格</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">8月建筑业PMI环比连续4个月下降，绝对值突破年内低点，说明8月建筑业PMI偏低。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">拖累项在于价格，投入品和销售价格均下滑，投入品价格跌幅大于销售价格跌幅；利好的点在于新订单和业务活动预期两个预期指标均保持增长。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 154.68px; visibility: visible;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/b8102eec43b24d2fb79076bd09097e68.png" width="600" height="154" /></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><img style="width: 390pt; height: 261pt; visibility: visible;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/721b146bb93d44b0bc6c537510ac3541.png" width="520" height="348" /><img style="width: 415.3pt; height: 263.15pt; visibility: visible;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/66154c52820a4a79a3f088ae51ff6807.png" width="554" height="351" /></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">2.</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">价格：建筑材料价格行情1涨12跌2稳</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">截至2024年8月30日，周内建筑材料价格涨价品种为0个；下跌品种为12个；持稳品种为3个；</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">涨价品种：螺纹钢、水泥<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1007-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>熟料</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1011-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>脚手架</a>和粉煤灰；</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">跌价品种：水泥、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1010-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>加气块</a>、天然砂、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1013-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>砂浆</a>、机制砂、碎石、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1009-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>矿渣粉</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1002-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>混凝土</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1008-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>木方</a>、建筑沥青和浮法玻璃；</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">持平品种：水泥。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center; text-indent: 21pt;" align="center"> <img style="width: 600px; height: 97.6077px; visibility: visible;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/8cc5812d6e304e1a8b82c667ae510d38.png" width="600" height="97" /> <img style="width: 388.3pt; height: 245.15pt; visibility: visible;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/71c3a78ef09a4b68ba89016c58c188d6.png" width="518" height="327" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">3. </span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">地产、基建需求分析</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21.1pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">1</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">）建筑业下游需求：水泥出库量周环比下降0.61%</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">截至2024年8月30日，国内250家水泥厂周出库量324.3万吨，环比下降0.61%，同比下降41.7%。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">从区域上看，七大地区中，东北、华东、华中和西北环比上升，华北、华南和西南出库量环比下降。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 165.749px; visibility: visible;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/ba991441aa284a8d89c4a4efdac7dfe9.png" width="600" height="165" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21.1pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">2</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">）基建重大项目需求：水泥直供量周环比增加0.6%</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">截至2024年8月30日，国内250家水泥厂周基建直供量168万吨，环比增加0.6%，同比下降21.9%。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 150.26px; visibility: visible;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/230d94e4e9a541189e7c249f7253e15c.png" width="600" height="150" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21.1pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">3</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">）房建需求：混凝土发运量周环比上升2.37</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">截至2024年8月30日，国内506家混凝土搅拌站周发运量144.4万吨，环比上升2.37%，同比下降33.6%。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">从区域上看，七大地区中，东北、华东、华南、华中和西北环比增加，华北、西南环比均表现下降。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center; text-indent: 21pt;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 172.097px; visibility: visible;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/09/02/ea5df4f860c04eaa87dc275ee055a852.png" width="600" height="172" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">4. </span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">本周重点关注</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">1</span><span style="color: black;">）宏观：8月百强房企销量跌幅扩大，专项债发行集中度高位回落；</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">2</span><span style="color: black;">）供给：水泥窑线运转率回升，超过去年同期水平，钢厂利润回升，小幅增产；</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">3</span><span style="color: black;">）库存：水泥及螺纹钢库存去化较好，尤其是华东、华北和西南；</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">4</span><span style="color: black;">）需求：下游需求环比好转，基建强度大于房建；</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">5</span><span style="color: black;">）成本：原料价格小幅探涨；</span></p> <p><span style="color: black;">6</span><span style="color: black;">）心态：商家挺价意愿较浓。</span></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：金央央 021-26303224 </br> 资讯监督：汤浛溟 021-26093670 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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