“新王”绿城上海滩豪掷60亿“抄底”-乐居财经

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data-w="1080"/></section><section><strong>01 新王降临 后市难料</strong><o:p></o:p></section><section>绿城此次获得的地王名叫徐汇区斜土街道xh128D-07地块，位于徐汇滨江板块，距离黄浦江约400米。地块此前为商办综合用地，为小米所得，后不知何故退地，土地规划改为住宅后重新出让。<o:p></o:p></section><section>在8月7日的现场拍卖中，虽有7家参与争夺，但最终达到封顶价并愿意参加摇号的仅有4家——绿城、中海&西岸、宸嘉、招商&徐汇城投。最终，摇号机跳出3号球，绿城幸运胜出。<o:p></o:p></section><p><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="100001167" data-ratio="1.904" data-s="300,640" src="https://ess.leju.com/common/photo/16-1-eG2haXviErU4eq0nzdSa6ZdhzoamUvlItynXMUmymnarxbDx6MXgWQOqf4argHVj4vp4iir6F5IXOvpv.jpeg" data-type="webp" data-w="750"/></p><section></section><section><strong>如果按照传统计算方法，本地块楼板价为13.1万每平方米。但是地块中有部分配套设施，剔除后可售住宅楼板价约为13.8万每平方米。有业内为其算了一笔账，算上各方面成本，未来保本售价至少为17万每平方米。</strong><o:p></o:p></section><section>因此，绿城地块的未来入市售价将决定拿地成败。值得一提的是，地块出让条件中并未设置房地联动价，答疑纪要的回复是：落实《关于优化本市房地产市场平稳健康发展政策措施的通知》（沪建房管联[2024]258号要求），具体执行可向地块所在地房管部门咨询。<o:p></o:p></section><section>目前板块内新房价格天花板为地块南侧的启元，其今年入市均价为17.8万每平方米。从地理位置可以发现，启元是一线江景，而绿城地块江景被部分遮挡。地块北侧的楼盘为汇元玺，均价为13.1万每平方米，与绿城地块楼板价相同。<o:p></o:p></section><p><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="100001168" data-ratio="0.6092592592592593" data-s="300,640" src="https://ess.leju.com/common/photo/16-1-cVWdteb8UFKehOIiDKm2vDSaLWKv0r1Ch0e8h75vDYGJSYwShsG0hLKjvvMcSkKLqZokd9a36HjXlDzE.jpeg" data-type="webp" data-w="1080"/></p><section></section><section>一年后，该地块能挖掘出多少利润将考验绿城在上海市场的溢价能力。<o:p></o:p></section><section><strong>02 抄底虹口焉知非福</strong><o:p></o:p></section><section>除了斩获全国单价地王之外，在8月7日的上海四批次土拍中，绿城还拿下了另一幅市区地块——虹口区江湾镇街道HK0017-18、HK0017-21、HK0018-31地块，溢价率为6.5%。<o:p></o:p></section><p><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-imgfileid="100001169" data-ratio="1.904" data-s="300,640" src="https://ess.leju.com/common/photo/16-1-aAJ13eRo21q4c0xa5Rs66uiuNzY17wkKFwMAZZF6YNvfxrSsAb97F5dvOCTSCYcZDaXxsrtlYa5TQvAR.jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="750"/></p><section></section><section>对于本次拿地，市场观点不尽相同。</section><section>乐观者认为“绿城这次拿地属于抄底，赚到了”。原因很简单，虹口江湾地块成交楼板价48451元每平方米。一年前同板块也出让过一幅宅地，当时中建八局溢价6.4%拿下虹口区江湾镇街道HK0018-33地块，楼板价为55372元每平方米。<o:p></o:p></section><section><strong>以此计算，绿城相当于享受了一次8.8折拿地优惠，在利润方面多增加10%空间。</strong><o:p></o:p></section><section>然而，悲观者则认为绿城之所以能抄底，归根结底是其他房企对于市场预期下降。作为市区宅地，仅有3家房企参与。此外，板块内楼盘销售情况也并不算好。<o:p></o:p></section><section>2023年7月30日，虹口江湾板块由上海城投开发的盛虹里开盘推出451套房源，截至2024年8月7日，已销售100套，销售率22.2%。<o:p></o:p></section><p><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="100001170" data-ratio="0.7333333333333333" data-s="300,640" src="https://ess.leju.com/common/photo/16-1-105MuxNH5sqy009oMxPaltPxjlHX1g3wSTwdkXjUvIjW3aa8eecAjX47tnXW96fwxfZYGwZYeHHAkTsa.jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1080"/></p><section></section><section>与徐汇滨江地块不同，虹口江湾地块在未来入市价格上预计不会有太多突破，将考验同等价位下，市场对于绿城产品的接受程度。<o:p></o:p></section><section><strong>03 繁花三章命运迥异</strong><o:p></o:p></section><section>有意思的是，近几年有一个现象，绿城在上海要么不拿地，要么就一连串拿地。今年四批次如此，去年二批次亦是如此。<o:p></o:p></section><section>在2023年二批次集中土拍期间，绿城连下三城，分别拿下闵行、嘉定、青浦三幅宅地，随后推出繁花三章概念，楼盘分别定名为绿城沁蘭园、绿城留香园、绿城春晓园。<o:p></o:p></section><section><strong>没想到的是，上述三盘2023年陆续入市后却遭遇不同销售情况，命运迥异。</strong><o:p></o:p></section><section><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100001171" data-ratio="0.47925311203319504" src="https://ess.leju.com/common/photo/16-1-R71iSsewLrKU3VKGP4D0UEuw5mUk3sxxqW3ow1TzIAaXwPz9fpYkpMoDKHubrc9O2MkqWjoxb45Fw1Ge.jpeg" data-type="png" data-w="482"/></section><section>三盘中销售最为顺利的是位于闵行的绿城沁蘭园，其共推出1172套房源，截至2024年8月7日已销售1170套，几乎售罄。<o:p></o:p></section><section>排名次之的是位于嘉定的绿城留香园共推出1264套房源，目前已销售1052套，销售率83%。但其与同板块的时代之城直面竞争中却落于下风，今年6月两盘均有开盘记录，绿城留香园认筹率43.6%，而时代之城则是120.7%。<o:p></o:p></section><section>位于青浦的绿城春晓园则是三盘中销售最差的一个，目前其共推出657套房源，已销售310套，销售率47%，项目此前开盘甚至出现因认筹人数太少而取消摇号的情况。<br/></section><section><o:p></o:p></section><section>值得一提的是，绿城今年在上海高端市场表现较为出色，绿城外滩兰庭、前滩百合园均触发积分制。<o:p></o:p></section><section>对于刚刚拿下地王的绿城而言，未来将面临更多的机遇和挑战，不管前方如何，唯有产品和销售才是最好的答案。</section><section class="channels_iframe_wrp"><mp-common-videosnap class="js_uneditable custom_select_card channels_iframe videosnap_video_iframe" data-pluginname="mpvideosnap" 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“新王”绿城上海滩豪掷60亿“抄底”-乐居财经