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sand niggers understand is force and I’m about to introduce them to it.”</h2> <div id="search"><form method="get" id="searchform" action="https://web.archive.org/web/20130124053544/http://gorillasguides.com/"> <div><input type="text" value="" name="s" id="s"/> <input type="submit" id="searchsubmit" value="Search"/> </div> </form> </div> </div> <hr/> <div id="content" class="span-13 append-1"> <div class="post clearfix" id="post-14206"> <div class="postmetadata"><span class="comments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130124053544/http://gorillasguides.com/2012/09/22/%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%b9%d8%b3%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%82-%d9%84%d9%87%d8%a7-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%82/#respond" title="Comment on استعدادات عسكرية لا سابق لها في المنطقة">No Comments</a></span> Posted on September 22nd, 2012 by Um Thalit</div> <h3><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130124053544/http://gorillasguides.com/2012/09/22/%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%b9%d8%b3%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%82-%d9%84%d9%87%d8%a7-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%82/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to استعدادات عسكرية لا سابق لها في المنطقة">استعدادات عسكرية لا سابق لها في المنطقة</a></h3> <p class="postmetadata">Category: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130124053544/http://gorillasguides.com/category/analysis-briefings-commentary/" title="View all posts in Analysis Briefings Commentary" rel="category tag">Analysis Briefings Commentary</a>, Tags: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130124053544/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/american-imperialism/" rel="tag">American Imperialism</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130124053544/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/american-war-mongering/" rel="tag">American war mongering</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130124053544/http://gorillasguides.com/tag/iran/" rel="tag">Iran</a></p> <div class="entry" dir="rtl" align="right"> <p>تتسارع وتيرة التحضيرات العسكرية في منطقة الخليج العربي تحت عناوين مختلفة انما لهدف واحد وهو الاستعداد لكل السيناريوات التي قد تسير بها الجهود لوقف برنامج ايران النووي. ورغم تضارب التصريحات واشتداد لهجة الخلاف وارتفاع نبرتها بين أميركا واسرائيل، بات واضحا أن الادارة الأميركية عدلت من سياستها تجاه ايران، وتحولت من احتواء وتعايش مع ايران نووية الى سياسة منع طهران من الحصول على سلاح نووي. وتتفق غالبية المراقين على أن إخفاق العقوبات الاقتصادية والضغوط السياسية في ثني ايران عن تطوير برنامجها النووي سيؤدي عاجلاً أم آجلاً الى الخيار العسكري. ولم يعد الخلاف بين واشنطن وتل أبيب اليوم على منع ايران، ولو بالقوة، من التحول الى قوة نووية عسكرية، وانما متى يجب اللجوء الى الخيار العسكري لمنعها من ذلك.وبحسب مسؤولين أميركيين وأوروبيين وخبراء التقوا في مؤتمر مغلق خلال الشهر الجاري في عاصمة أوروبية لمناقشة الملف الايراني وتداعياته، تصر الحكومة الاسرائيلية على تقديرات أجهزتها الاستخباراتية لمدى تقدم البرنامج النووي الايراني، والتي تتوقع أن تملك طهران سلاحاً نووياً خلال سنة واحدة، في حين تشير التقديرات الأميركية الى أن طهران تحتاج الى فترة أطول تصل حتى عامين أو ثلاثة. وتختلف التقديرات الاسرائيلية عن الأميركية أيضاً في حجم الرد الايراني المتوقع على أي هجوم على منشآتها النووية. ففي حين يروّج المسؤولون الاسرائيليون لفكرة الرد المحدود من جانب طهران بحجة خشية النظام الايراني من أن يجد نفسه في حرب لا يستطيع كسبها ضد أميركا وقوى الغرب والعرب في حال أقدم على إغلاق مضيق هرمز واستهدف منشآت أميركية في المنطقة، تعتقد غالبية المسؤولين الأميركيين بأن الرد الايراني سيكون كبيراً مما سيشعل حرباً اقليمية – دولية.وكشفت تصريحات، في المؤتمر المذكور، وجود حال من عدم ثقة من جانب الحكومة الاسرائيلية بالرئيس باراك أوباما، وبكونه سيقدم فعلاً على الخيار العسكري في الوقت المناسب، ولذلك قررت الضغط عليه في فترة الانتخابات. ويخشى بعض المسؤولين في الادارة الأميركية من أن تقدم الحكومة الاسرائيلية في حال شعرت بأن حظوظ أوباما بالفوز في الانتخابات ستكون قوية باللجوء الى شن ضربات جوية وصاروخية ضد بعض المنشآت النووية الرئيسية في ايران. وفي حال رد إيراني كبير يشمل إغلاق مضيق هرمز واستهداف قواعد أميركية، ستجد ادارة أوباما نفسها مضطرة الى دخول الحرب على رأس تحالف غربي – عربي.وفي أي حرب مستقبلية سيكون للقوات الأميركية الدور الأكبر بخاصة في العمليات البحرية والجوية والحماية ضد الصواريخ الباليستية والجوالة وازالة الألغام البحرية.ولفت محللون عسكريون الى أن الفارق الأساسي اليوم بين التهديدات التي اطلقت في الاعوام السابقة باللجوء الى الخيار العسكري ضد ايران وما يجري حالياً هو حجم الاستعدادات العسكرية الجدية، والتي لم تشهدها المنطقة من قبل. إذ يحشد الجانب الأميركي وحده ثلاث حاملات طائرات وعشرات المدمرات والفرقاطات وكاسحات الألغام وسفن الانزال وقاعدة عائمة للقوات الخاصة وسفن انزال وغواصات نووية مسلحة بصواريخ جوالة، وهي مدعومة بمدمرات وفرقاطات وكاسحات ألغام من قوى غربية وعربية منتشرة منذ فترة في الخليج العربي وبحر عمان تحت عنوان إجراء مناورات مشتركة. كما تنتشر سفن وقوات أميركية داخل وقبالة الشواطئ الاسرائيلية بحجة اجراء تدريبات مشتركة في الدفاع ضد الصواريخ الباليستية.يختلف المراقبون حول توقيت اللجوء الى الخيار العسكري، الا أنهم جميعاً يتفقون على أنها ستشعل حرباً مدمرة، تكون كلفتها كبيرة على الاقتصاد الدولي ودول المنطقة وبخاصة ايران التي ستخسر بنيتها التحتية العسكرية والمدنية وينهار اقتصادها وتتهدد وحدة أراضيها.</p> </div> </div> <hr/> <div class="navigation"> <div class="alignleft"></div> <div class="alignright"></div> </div> </div> <div id="sidebar" class="span-10 last"> <div class="span-10" id="tabs"> <ul> <li class="ui-tabs-nav-item"><a href="#featured-articles">Featured Articles</a></li> <li class="ui-tabs-nav-item"><a href="#latest-articles">Latest Articles</a></li> </ul> <div id="featured-articles" class="widget"> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130124053544/http://gorillasguides.com/2012/04/19/hezbollah-says-latest-bombings-in-iraq-thwart-mission-to-build-state/">Hezbollah says latest bombings in Iraq “thwart mission to build state”</a></li> <li><a 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