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valign="top" id="boxB_3053751_tab3_c" style="display:none;"><td class="boxBI_3053751"><div class="textHang"><div style="padding-bottom:3px"><span class="bulletRedSmall">• </span><span class="textMed"><a href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13281392/" id="gted" ce="Link-1">Drinking coffee cuts alcohol's harmful effects</a></span></div><div style="padding-bottom:3px"><span class="bulletRedSmall">• </span><span class="textMed"><a href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13272368/" id="gted" ce="Link-1">Philly officials cite eatery for English-only sign</a></span></div><div style="padding-bottom:3px"><span class="bulletRedSmall">• </span><span class="textMed"><a href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13272123/" id="gted" ce="Link-1">Florida issues hurricane warning, evacuations</a></span></div><div style="padding-bottom:3px"><span class="bulletRedSmall">• </span><span class="textMed"><a href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13279232/" id="gted" ce="Link-1">Big Ben in surgery after motorcycle crash</a></span></div><div style="padding-bottom:3px"><span class="bulletRedSmall">• </span><span class="textMed"><a href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13146115/" id="gted" ce="Link-1">FBI reports first rise in violent crime in 5 years</a></span></div><div style="padding-bottom:3px"><span class="bulletRedSmall">• </span><span class="textMed"><b><a href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7468311/">Most viewed on MSNBC.com</a></b></span></div></div></td></tr></table><script>pop_pushTabBox('boxB_3053751');</script></div></div></div><div class="CCol w160 fR clrR"></div><div class="mR165"><div><div class="textMedBlackBold">By Gary Lee</div><div class="textMedBlack">Washington Post Staff Writer</div><img border="0" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20060612221700im_/http://media.msnbc.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Sources/Art/postLogo_msnbc.gif" height="20" width="140" vspace="0" hspace="0" alt="The Washington Post"><div class="textTimestamp"><div id="udtD">Updated: 2:34 p.m. ET June 5, 2006</div><script language="javascript"> function UpdateTimeStamp(pdt) { var n = document.getElementById("udtD"); if(pdt != '' && n && window.DateTime) { var dt = new DateTime(); pdt = dt.T2D(pdt); if(dt.GetTZ(pdt)) {n.innerHTML = dt.D2S(pdt,((''.toLowerCase()=='false')?false:true));} } } UpdateTimeStamp('632851292504900000'); </script></div></div><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>A summer trip to the Caribbean has definite advantages. Cheap low-season flights to the region pop up constantly, such as last month's offer by USA3000 of $198 round-trip flights from Washington, D.C., to Cancun, Mexico. Many of the region's hotels also offer sharp seasonal discounts.</p><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>But -- you knew there was a but -- summer and early fall are also hurricane season. And at least one study is predicting that the run of storms in 2006 will be almost as treacherous as last year's record season.</p><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>According to a Colorado State University team headed by hurricane analyst William M. Gray, nine hurricanes will sweep through the Caribbean and United States this year, five of them major ones. In addition, 17 named storms and other less forceful tropical storms and depressions are expected.</p><div class="aC"><div class="textSmallGrey w320"><a href="#storyContinued">Story continues below ↓</a><hr noshade size="1"> advertisement <div style="padding:0 10 10 10;"><script>ad_dap(250,300,'&PG=NBCSMT&AP=1089');</script></div><hr noshade size="1"></div></div><a name="storyContinued"></a><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>In its own hurricane forecast issued late last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that slightly fewer storms will hit this year than last, but still far more than average: at least eight hurricanes, four to six of them serious, and 13 to 16 named tropical storms. The question is "not whether the season will be above average, but how much above normal it will be," NOAA's report said.</p><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>The forecasts stress that <em>where</em> and <em>when</em> storms will hit in the coming months is impossible to predict. While the official hurricane season extends from June through November, according to past patterns the heaviest activity is generally concentrated between mid-August and mid-September in the eastern Caribbean and between mid-September and mid-November in the western Caribbean.</p><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>Still, "compared to the beauty of the region, the risks of something untoward happening are small," said Chris Landsea, a NOAA hurricane specialist. "If somebody offered me a trip to the Caribbean in the middle of hurricane season, I'd jump on it."</p><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span><div class="box_brl" style="width:100%;;"><script></script><table width="100%;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" class="boxH_brl"><tr><td width="*" nowrap="true" class="boxHC_brl"><div class="textSmallBold"> Share your thoughts</div></td></tr></table><table width="100%;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" class="boxB_brl"><tr valign="top"><td class="boxBI_brl"><div class="bigRedLink"><p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20060612221700/http://boards.live.com/MSNBCboards/board.aspx?BoardID=471">Would you travel to the Caribbean during storm season?</a></p></div></td></tr></table></div></p><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span><b><strong>Check weather patterns<br></strong></b>There is no shortage of data designed to help travelers plan where to go and when. "No one would head to Antarctica without studying the weather patterns and how to protect themselves," said NOAA spokesman Frank Lepore. "Why should they go to the Caribbean, in a time of high storm activity, without making preparations?" </p><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>Among the resources available:</p><ul><li class="textBodyBlack">Caribbean Hurricane Network ( <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20060612221700/http://www.stormcarib.com/">http://www.stormcarib.com/</a> ), maintained by storm watchers throughout the Caribbean, has satellite maps of daily weather patterns and an island-by-island account of hurricane hits dating back to the 1800s.</li><li class="textBodyBlack">NOAA's site, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20060612221700/http://www.noaa.gov/">http://www.noaa.gov/</a>, is packed with useful information, including weather reports, historical data and news. One page features maps showing which Caribbean regions are most hurricane-prone during each month of the season.</li><li class="textBodyBlack">The Weather Channel's home page, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20060612221700/http://www.weather.com/">http://www.weather.com/</a> , offers maps that track a hurricane's path and has a regular update of airport closings, among other useful details.</li></ul><p class="textBodyBlack"><span id="byLine"></span>"The point is not to deter people from traveling to the Caribbean," said James Elsner, who specializes in hurricanes at Florida State University. "It's to help them be prepared in the event that a storm emergency happens."</p><div class="t1 f70 c666"><span cm="PageNavBot"><a class="b" id="gted" ce="2" href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13149970/page/2/">CONTINUED: Choosing an island</a><hr size="1">1 | <a class="b" id="gted" ce="2" href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13149970/page/2/">2</a> | <a class="b" id="gted" ce="2" href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13149970/page/2/">Next ></a></span></div><div class="userRating t1 b f11 c000" style="margin-top:20px;"><nobr> Rate this story </nobr><span style="white-space:wrap;"></span><nobr> Low <span id="URplace"></span> High </nobr></div><span class="t1 f11 c000" style="display:none" id="userRatingTotal"></span><span> </span><span class="bulletRedSmall"> • </span><a href="/web/20060612221700/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7468311/" class="t1 b f11 c000">View Top Rated stories</a><br><script>moveURCode();</script><br><div class="textMedBlack doThis" 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