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New episodes of the Chanticleer podcast are available every Friday at 5pm AEST.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"8e3da490f158bfca5b1812baeb0cd917c328467b\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EMarket’s war footing\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EJames Thomson: \u003C\u002Fstrong\u003EFears of a full-scale regional conflict in the Middle East are rising, and they’re very real. It’s even become an issue in Australian politics, but markets are largely unmoved.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EOil has jumped around a bit, but global sharemarkets are really looking past this. Has that surprised you at all?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EJames Chessell:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E It’s a really good question, James. I think the geopolitical environment is very, very fraught, to say the least. And notwithstanding the optimism that has permeated markets in recent weeks ... I would have expected a little bit more nervousness about how this may play out.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIt obviously says two things: many investors are expecting some kind of resolution that doesn’t involve a worst-case scenario, and that would probably differ with some of the geopolitical observers that we talk to every day at \u003Cem\u003EThe Australian Financial Review\u003C\u002Fem\u003E. It also says a bit about the inbuilt optimism in global markets at the moment.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EThomson:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E I think it also says that perhaps some parts of the global economy are going the other way.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIf you think about the oil price, it’s supposed to be the main transmission mechanism when we have conflict in the Middle East – oil goes up, and we’ve seen a bit of that this week. But oil is at $US75 a barrel, right? It was at $US90 back in May, and we’ve had in the last few days the Saudi energy minister come out and say oil is actually more likely to go to $US50 a barrel than $US100 a barrel because the demand is not there.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESo, that’s the other thing … demand is not really strong in Europe [or China], and on top of that, none of this conflict has really affected the supply of oil.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIran’s oil supply is at a six-year high. So, even with all this stuff going on, they’re still managing to get plenty of barrels out into the world. It just shows you that our perceptions of what goes wrong in a conflict like this sometimes don’t match reality.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003EVirgin v Qantas fight\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EThomson:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E We don’t know what Qatar paid [for its 25 per cent stake in Virgin Australia], but this is pretty good news for Virgin, which infamously collapsed into administration in 2020 and was ultimately rescued by a US private equity firm called Bain Capital.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EVirgin and Qatar will team up to help Virgin get back into the international travel game. From next year, Virgin customers will be able to fly from Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth to Doha and then on to Europe, which should help bring ticket prices down.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut Virgin boss Jayne Hrdlicka was most excited about the potential for this deal to improve Virgin’s competitiveness against Qantas in the domestic market. How does this mainly international deal strengthen Virgin’s hand at home?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EChessell:\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E Jayne Hrdlicka is saying to people that this is a moment in time for Australian aviation, and I think in this case the hyperbole is probably real.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EIf we just take a step back … remember that in the first half of last year, Qatar wanted the rights to land a lot more planes – close to 30 planes in Australia – and was thwarted by the Albanese government, despite the transport department thinking it was a good idea. That was probably a low point for Qatar and also for Virgin.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EFast-forward to now, they’re back at the table, they have a stake in Virgin, [and] they’re able to land planes in Australia at a much greater volume.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EI think that’s due to three main factors in Australia. The first is that we’ve had the collapse of a couple of airlines, Rex and Bonza, and that’s probably focused everybody’s thinking.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe second is that competition is a big national conversation these days, sometimes not particularly intelligent conversation, but it’s certainly front of mind for people. And I think the government is very aware that they’ve said some things about supermarkets … [and] they don’t want to expose themselves on the airline front by looking like they’re anticompetitive.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EI think the third thing is the public mood has probably moved against Qantas a little bit over that period of time.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EI think it is unequivocally a good thing for Virgin, but more importantly, it’s a good thing for Australian consumers.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003ERBA’s hush-hush problem\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cb\u003EChessell: \u003C\u002Fb\u003EThis week, the \u003Cem\u003EAFR\u003C\u002Fem\u003E has broken a series of really interesting stories about a problem with the Reserve Bank of Australia, and it’s around this practice the RBA has of holding private briefings with selected investment banks and their clients.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESurprise, surprise. It turns out that word from these briefings got out, in one way or another, and at various times the RBA has been forced to ban these banks.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWe had a story about RBC Capital at the start of the week, and then we followed up with another story about Westpac getting a one-year ban from future briefings after the RBA discovered that information had been leaked.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhy would the RBA even do these briefings in the first place?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EThomson: \u003C\u002Fstrong\u003EI think one of the criticisms of a central bank is that you can be sitting in an ivory tower there in Martin Place, and you don’t listen to anyone, yet deliver sermons from the mount every few weeks. And that creates a bit of a command-and-control relationship. So, I think the RBA getting out there in the community is important.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EI think generally, as a rule, you want the RBA talking to banks. You want the RBA talking to traders. You want the RBA talking to investors from overseas and local investors, and just getting a sense of where they see the economy.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E[Former RBA governor] Phil Lowe and [current RBA governor] Michele Bullock have also talked about how important it is to go out and engage with community groups.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe problem they’ve got here is that we just don’t know a whole lot about [these meetings]. They do go on behind closed doors, and you never see the guest list. Everybody who gets invited feels like they’re getting the inside running.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut that’s the confusing thing to me … if the RBA doesn’t use these meetings to talk about things that it hasn’t already discussed publicly, why is it so upset about the leaks?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWhy put Westpac and RBC in the sin bin for a year if the discussions are pretty innocuous?\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch2\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EBest of the Chanticleer column this week\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E\u003C\u002Fh2\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"012ddb6ad578b12bb30bdd58dc9be6fb7dd21aca\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E Virgin’s deal with Qatar will make it a stronger competitor to Qantas. But the two airlines are set to duke it out over one key part of the new arrangement.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"5b09b79d0525cebfa86da16b72f3c92432c259ed\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E A world where ordinary investors hold private equity alongside their share portfolio? Wall Street giant Marc Rowan thinks it’s coming as the world goes private.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"35fdf545e8f1a9680ad9ca43971340f7c98a1f6f\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003EThanks to the Fed and China, markets are back at the levels reached during the 2021 frenzy. But it might not take much for investors to let a little air out.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"351fdea071bec90dcc048345126a728bf2747191\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E The MFF Capital Investments boss and Magellan co-founder says the “everything rally” is likely to reverse, but calm, long-term investors can fight through the noise.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"cdfe15f8ebc8e2b1109680b6b83d9f72943cfa78\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E Bain’s deal with the Gulf carrier will make it a more formidable rival to Qantas, and put pressure on a government that claims to want stronger competition.\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cx-placeholder id=\"bc88c7e883bb14784f5b97886629c59aa6b5210e\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fx-placeholder\u003E For the second time this year, an attempt by an ASX giant to buy a British target has fallen over. 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