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Could climate become the weak link in your supply chain? | McKinsey
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datetime="2020-08-06T00:00:00Z">August 6, 2020</time> | Article</div></div></div><div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium FullHero_mck-c-full-hero__arrow__jtXdj" data-click-track="true" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="article" data-layer-text="skip article header section" data-layer-region="full hero"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xl___3BEee_2734c4f mck-arrow-down-icon"></span></button></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="AnchoredHero" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class=""><div class="FullHero_mck-c-full-hero__second-fold__gUeV7" tabindex="-1"><div class="mck-c-full-hero__second-fold-content"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 FullHero_mck-c-full-hero__description__WOtti"><span>Greater frequency and severity of climate hazards can create more disruptions in global supply chains—interrupting production, raising costs and prices, and hurting corporate revenues.</span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="FullHero_mck-c-full-hero__background__tdkXY"></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Lola Woetzel<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Dickon Pinner<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Hamid Samandari<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/hauke-engel" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Hauke Engel</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/our-people/mekala-krishnan" class="mdc-c-link-inline___7DRrt_2734c4f mdc-c-link-inline--secondary___YKoOK_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Mekala Krishnan</span></a> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Claudia Kampel<span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Jakob Graabak</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Fsustainability%2Four%20insights%2Fcould%20climate%20become%20the%20weak%20link%20in%20your%20supply%20chain%2Fcould-climate-become-the-weak-link-in-your-supply-chain-v3.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="could-climate-become-the-weak-link-in-your-supply-chain-v3" data-layer-report-name="could-climate-become-the-weak-link-in-your-supply-chain-v3>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (29 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Much of global economic production</strong> is organized around a complex system of interdependent supply chains. Supply chains facilitate the production of everything from computers and cars to lifesaving medicines and food, and support world trade in goods that is worth almost $20 trillion annually. End products have up to many thousands of parts, sourced from diverse geographies around the world. Over time, these supply chains have been honed to deliver maximum efficiency and speed.</p> <p>But questions about supply-chain risks and resilience are now being raised in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic as well as acute weather events. As climate change makes extreme weather more frequent and/or severe, it increases the annual probability of events that are more intense than manufacturing assets are constructed to withstand, increasing the likelihood of supply-chain disruptions.</p> <p>Recent MGI research examines how industry value chains are exposed to a broader set of risks, including climate events. This work also examines vulnerabilities within specific companies and broader value chains, financial losses, and ways to bolster resilience.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_2734c4f" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>An overview of the case study analysis</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>In <em><a href="/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts">Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts</a></em>, we measured the impact of climate change by the extent to which it could affect human beings, human-made physical assets, and the natural world. We explored risks today and over the next three decades and examined specific cases to understand the mechanisms through which climate change leads to increased socioeconomic risk.</p> <p>In order to link physical climate risk to socioeconomic impact, we investigated cases that illustrated exposure to climate change extremes and proximity to physical thresholds. These cover a range of sectors and geographies and provide the basis of a “micro-to-macro” approach that is a characteristic of McKinsey Global Institute research. To inform our selection of cases, we considered over 30 potential combinations of climate hazards, sectors, and geographies based on a review of the literature and expert interviews on the potential direct impacts of physical climate hazards. We found these hazards affect five different key socioeconomic systems: livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital.</p> <p>We ultimately chose nine cases to reflect these systems and to represent leading-edge examples of climate change risk. Each case is specific to a geography and an exposed system, and thus is not representative of an “average” environment or level of risk across the world. Our cases show that the direct risk from climate hazards is determined by the severity of the hazard and its likelihood, the exposure of various “stocks” of capital (people, physical capital, and natural capital) to these hazards, and the resilience of these stocks to the hazards (for example, the ability of physical assets to withstand flooding). We typically define the climate state today as the average conditions between 1998 and 2017, in 2030 as the average between 2021 and 2040, and in 2050 between 2041 and 2060. Through our case studies, we also assess the knock-on effects that could occur, for example to downstream sectors or consumers. We primarily rely on past examples and empirical estimates for this assessment of knock-on effects, which is likely not exhaustive given the complexities associated with socioeconomic systems. Through this “micro” approach, we offer decision makers a methodology by which to assess direct physical climate risk, its characteristics, and its potential knock-on impacts.</p> <p>Climate science makes extensive use of scenarios ranging from lower (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) to higher (RCP 8.5) CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. We have chosen to focus on RCP 8.5, because the higher-emission scenario it portrays enables us to assess physical risk in the absence of further decarbonization. (We also choose a sea level rise scenario for one of our cases that is consistent with the RCP 8.5 trajectory.) Such an "inherent risk" assessment allows us to understand the magnitude of the challenge and highlight the case for action. For a detailed description of the reason for this choice see the technical appendix of the full report.</p> <p>Our case studies cover each of the five systems we assess to be directly affected by physical climate risk, across geographies and sectors. While climate change will have an economic impact across many sectors, our cases highlight the impact on construction, agriculture, finance, fishing, tourism, manufacturing, real estate, and a range of infrastructure-based sectors. The cases include the following:</p> <ul> <li>For livability and workability, we look at the risk of exposure to extreme heat and humidity in India and what that could mean for that country’s urban population and outdoor-based sectors, as well as at the changing Mediterranean climate and how that could affect sectors such as wine and tourism.</li> <li>For food systems, we focus on the likelihood of a multiple-breadbasket failure affecting wheat, corn, rice, and soy, as well as, specifically in Africa, the impact on wheat and coffee production in Ethiopia and cotton and corn production in Mozambique.</li> <li>For physical assets, we look at the potential impact of storm surge and tidal flooding on Florida real estate and the extent to which global supply chains, including for semiconductors and rare earths, could be vulnerable to the changing climate.</li> <li>For infrastructure services, we examine 17 types of infrastructure assets, including the potential impact on coastal cities such as Bristol in England and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam.</li> <li>Finally, for natural capital, we examine the potential impacts of glacial melt and runoff in the Hindu Kush region of the Himalayas; what ocean warming and acidification could mean for global fishing and the people whose livelihoods depend on it; as well as potential disturbance to forests, which cover nearly one-third of the world’s land and are key to the way of life for 2.4 billion people.</li> </ul></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>In this case study, we examine how risks from climate hazards, already present in global supply chains, are likely to evolve over the next few decades (see sidebar, “An overview of the case study analysis”). We identify three broad types of supply chains: specialty, intermediate, and commodity. Typically, the more specialized the supply chain, the more severe the impact could be for a downstream player as supply of a critical input may only be available from the source that has been disrupted. However, the more commoditized the supply chain is, the larger the number of downstream players that may be affected by spiking prices from a sudden reduction in supply (Exhibit 1).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/could%20climate%20become%20the%20weak%20link%20in%20your%20supply%20chain/svgz-mgi-climatesupply-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Supply chains face different knock-on effects from production disruption depending on the degree of commoditization." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/could%20climate%20become%20the%20weak%20link%20in%20your%20supply%20chain/svgz-mgi-climatesupply-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>For a deeper appreciation of the extent of risks, we focus on two supply chains that illustrate how disruption may play out. As an example of specialty supply chains, we examine the semiconductor industry; for commodity supply chains, heavy rare earth metals. Both create critical inputs for advanced industries. Semiconductor chips are ubiquitous in electronics from computers to smartphones to electronic watches. Rare earths are critical in aerospace and defense, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, medical appliances, and other electronics. Both supply chains are highly geographically concentrated in regions with an increasing probability of relevant climate hazards. However, these are only examples illustrating broader trends.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/climate%20risk%20and%20response%20physical%20hazards%20and%20socioeconomic%20impacts/climate-risk-standard-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Climate risk and response</div></h3><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-7"><p><div><p>Learn how earth’s changing climate could <a href="/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts">impact socioeconomic systems</a></p></div></p></div></div></header></div></div></div> <h2>The probability of a hurricane of sufficient intensity to disrupt semiconductor supply chains may grow two to four times by 2040</h2> <!-- --> <p>By 2040, a company using leading-edge chips (for example, with applications in memory, logic, communication, or optoelectronics) such as an automotive OEM, sourcing from geographies in Korea, Japan, Taiwan, or other hubs in the western Pacific, can expect that hurricanes sufficient to disrupt their suppliers will become two to four times more likely. Some of these disruptions may last for several months. This has implications for many industries as chips are increasingly critical to the modern economy. For example, electrical content in cars increased from 2 percent in 1960 to 35 percent in 2010.</p> <p>There are three drivers of near-term losses for suppliers that are hit by such events, potentially leading to losses of up to 200 percent of annual profit and 35 percent of revenues: physical damages to assets, including facilities, production equipment, and inventories; reduced sales, either because production is disrupted or because goods cannot be shipped to the market; and higher costs in the reconstruction phase and after the plant is back in production, as market prices of labor, energy, and logistics may spike following a disaster. The combination of these impacts may also limit suppliers’ ability to quickly and efficiently restore production, by reducing their ability to raise capital for repairs or by choking short-term cash flow and presenting unusual operational obstacles.</p> <p>Semiconductor supply could be reduced by an extreme hurricane in several ways: loss of infrastructure services such as roads or power, direct damages to manufacturing assets, and damages to critical internal systems such as specialized equipment. We find that a severe supply disruption can cause cascading production disruptions downstream, particularly for unprepared players (Exhibit 2). Using a hypothetical example, we estimate that downstream players could lose up to a third of annual revenue if supply is disrupted for an illustrative period of five months. This could be the case if no alternative source or substitute was able to keep supply going (beyond a minimal inventory of finished goods) and if no measures had been taken to limit losses from disrupted downstream production (for example, insurance or negotiations with customers to delay supply).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/could%20climate%20become%20the%20weak%20link%20in%20your%20supply%20chain/svgz-mgi-climatesupply-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Being prepared for extreme weather impacts can minimize supply-chain disruptions." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/could%20climate%20become%20the%20weak%20link%20in%20your%20supply%20chain/svgz-mgi-climatesupply-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>A well-prepared player, on the other hand, may only lose about 5 percent of revenue in a similar event. Preparations may include dual sourcing (so only 50 percent of supply is lost), increasing supplier resiliency through due diligence and collaboration with suppliers on asset hardening; this can limit the recovery time to less than one month. Several other actions can help further reduce the losses, including insurance, even faster recovery through best practice emergency procedures, and discounted cross-selling of substitute products (for example, premium models or older product versions) to end consumers. These adaptations come with a cost that needs to be considered, but many of these investments may be smaller than the loss avoided.</p> <p>There are two key areas of adaptation for semiconductor supply chains: building disaster-proof plants (for producers) and raising inventory levels in order to continue production even if a supply chain is interrupted (for downstream players). We find that building disaster-proof plants means additional costs of roughly 2 percent of the building costs which equals an additional $20 million for an average plant. Raising the inventory to provide a meaningful buffer in case of supply disruption, with estimated costs for warehousing and working capital, could increase input costs by less than a percent.</p> <h2>The probability heavy rare earths production is severely disrupted from extreme rainfall may increase 2 to 3 times by 2030</h2> <p>Heavy rare earths production is concentrated in southeastern China, which is increasingly exposed to extreme rainfall. We find that heavy rare earth production in southeastern China will experience extreme precipitation events (defined as events that occurred historically with an annual probability of about 2 percent, corresponding to precipitation of about 170 millimeters per day in the relevant region) twice as often by 2030. Expert estimates and historical events indicate that such rainfall events significantly increase the risk of landslides in the region.</p> <p>We estimate that the manifestation of an extreme precipitation event, or series of events, could cause at least a 20 percent drop in heavy rare earth output, and potentially much more in a worst-case scenario. Damage mechanisms include excessive mud and landslides in mines, flooding treatment ponds, and disrupted logistics to and from mines. Landslides are of particular concern, as they could both disrupt the ongoing leaching process in the mine if leach holes collapse and prevent production after the landslide if on-site repair works are required before new leach holes are dug (for example, to make sure that the soil has stabilized). This means a large landslide could disrupt production for up to 12 months in severely hit mines, though for most mines the disruption would be shorter if the landslide is shallow and only affects parts of the mine.</p> <p>Even a limited supply shortfall could cause prices to rise substantially (Exhibit 3). During the supply crisis in 2010–11, prices of several rare earths increased more than ten times. Since the supply shortages, some rare earth consumers have attempted to build stockpiles in case of price spikes, but public data on the scale of the stockpiling are scarce. For downstream players without substantial inventories, a price spike would mean they either have to reduce their consumption of heavy rare earths or increase their spending.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/could%20climate%20become%20the%20weak%20link%20in%20your%20supply%20chain/svgz-mgi-climatesupply-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Supply shortfalls in rare earths could cause price spikes similar to 2010–11." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/could%20climate%20become%20the%20weak%20link%20in%20your%20supply%20chain/svgz-mgi-climatesupply-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>A supply shortfall would be more critical for some heavy rare earths than others. Since the supply shortage in 2010–11, significant effort has been put into researching alternatives to rare earths, but with limited success in the key application areas. Going forward, there is concern about whether supply for some of these rare earth elements can keep up with demand for the materials that are used in high-growth segments like cleantech and consumer electronics, as well as high-end segments like aerospace and defense and medical appliances. Disruptions from climatic disruptions will add extra pressure to a supply chain that has little to no slack.</p> <p>Downstream players dependent on rare earths can protect themselves from climate-change induced physical risk by raising inventory levels at the cost of additional working capital and storage space needed, similar to the semiconductor example above. Rare earth miners can also adapt in other ways, for example, by using different leaching products and processes that decrease the risk of landslides or moving leach holes away from the steepest slopes. We estimate these measures could increase COGS by less than 5 percent.</p> <p>Other adaptation measures could slightly decrease the output of the mines: one option would be to select sites in areas with a lower concentration of mines in order to diversify risk, even if these mines have marginally lower potential. For example, Yunnan and Hunan have less than 2 mines today, while there are more than 54 mines in Jiangxi. Finally, if extreme rainfall is expected, miners could extract the leach in the most mature leach holes ahead of schedule. This would limit destruction of work in progress inventory when the rainfall turns mines to mud. All adaptation measures mentioned could be implemented in the short term and would eliminate about 50 to 80 percent of risk for rare earth miners, according to our estimates.</p> <hr/> <p>Supply chains and the infrastructure that supports them are designed for a stable climate. As hazards evolve, it will be necessary to increase investment in adaptation, possibly at the expense of efficiency. We find significant potential for many industries to adapt in the next decade, including conducting risk diagnostics, protecting manufacturing assets, redesigning operations (for example, by increasing safety stock of key inputs), broadening supplier base, shoring up infrastructure, etc. Indeed, measures of this kind are already underway in some areas, including from public authorities, suppliers in high-hazard locations, and customers in downstream sectors.</p> <p><em>For additional details on the risks to supply chains and possible adaptation measures, download the case study, </em><a href="/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/sustainability/our insights/could climate become the weak link in your supply chain/could-climate-become-the-weak-link-in-your-supply-chain-v3.pdf">Could climate become the weak link in your supply chain?</a> (PDF–865KB).</p> <p><em>About this case study:</em></p> <p><em>In January 2020, the McKinsey Global Institute published </em><a href="/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts">Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts</a><em>. In that report, we measured the impact of climate change by the extent to which it could affect human beings, human-made physical assets, and the natural world over the next three decades. In order to link physical climate risk to socioeconomic impact, we investigated nine specific cases that illustrated exposure to climate change extremes and proximity to physical thresholds.</em></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong><a href="/sitecore/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7b8d840caa-6a65-4626-8ce5-1f9fefe604dd%7d%40en">Lola Woetzel</a></strong> is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute, where <strong><a href="/our-people/mekala-krishnan">Mekala Krishnan</a></strong> is a senior fellow. <strong>Dickon Pinner</strong> is a senior partner in McKinsey’s San Francisco office. <strong><a href="/sitecore/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7bfd4428d4-5bb2-466c-aea7-4305b520d6d0%7d%40en">Hamid Samandari</a></strong> is a senior partner in the New York office. <strong><a href="/our-people/hauke-engel">Hauke Engel</a></strong> is a partner in the Frankfurt office. <strong>Claudia Kampel </strong>is a consultant in the Stuttgart office. <strong>Jakob Graabak</strong> is a consultant in the Oslo office. </p> <hr> <p>This article was edited by Anna Bernasek, a senior editor with the McKinsey Global Institute.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_2734c4f" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-2 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-clima-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts" class="picture-uniqueKey-clima-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/climate%20risk%20and%20response%20physical%20hazards%20and%20socioeconomic%20impacts/climate-risk-standard-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Report - 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Supply chains facilitate the production of everything from computers and cars to lifesaving medicines and food, and support world trade in goods that is worth almost $20 trillion annually. End products have up to many thousands of parts, sourced from diverse geographies around the world. Over time, these supply chains have been honed to deliver maximum efficiency and speed.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut questions about supply-chain risks and resilience are now being raised in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic as well as acute weather events. As climate change makes extreme weather more frequent and/or severe, it increases the annual probability of events that are more intense than manufacturing assets are constructed to withstand, increasing the likelihood of supply-chain disruptions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRecent MGI research examines how industry value chains are exposed to a broader set of risks, including climate events. This work also examines vulnerabilities within specific companies and broader value chains, financial losses, and ways to bolster resilience.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Sidebar 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eIn this case study, we examine how risks from climate hazards, already present in global supply chains, are likely to evolve over the next few decades (see sidebar, \u0026ldquo;An overview of the case study analysis\u0026rdquo;). We identify three broad types of supply chains: specialty, intermediate, and commodity. Typically, the more specialized the supply chain, the more severe the impact could be for a downstream player as supply of a critical input may only be available from the source that has been disrupted. However, the more commoditized the supply chain is, the larger the number of downstream players that may be affected by spiking prices from a sudden reduction in supply (Exhibit 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eFor a deeper appreciation of the extent of risks, we focus on two supply chains that illustrate how disruption may play out. As an example of specialty supply chains, we examine the semiconductor industry; for commodity supply chains, heavy rare earth metals. Both create critical inputs for advanced industries. Semiconductor chips are ubiquitous in electronics from computers to smartphones to electronic watches. Rare earths are critical in aerospace and defense, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, medical appliances, and other electronics. Both supply chains are highly geographically concentrated in regions with an increasing probability of relevant climate hazards. However, these are only examples illustrating broader trends.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[disruptor1up dis1]]\n\u003ch2\u003eThe probability of a hurricane of sufficient intensity to disrupt semiconductor supply chains may grow two to four times by 2040\u003c/h2\u003e\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eBy 2040, a company using leading-edge chips (for example, with applications in memory, logic, communication, or optoelectronics) such as an automotive OEM, sourcing from geographies in Korea, Japan, Taiwan, or other hubs in the western Pacific, can expect that hurricanes sufficient to disrupt their suppliers will become two to four times more likely. Some of these disruptions may last for several months. This has implications for many industries as chips are increasingly critical to the modern economy. For example, electrical content in cars increased from 2 percent in 1960 to 35 percent in 2010.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are three drivers of near-term losses for suppliers that are hit by such events, potentially leading to losses of up to 200 percent of annual profit and 35 percent of revenues: physical damages to assets, including facilities, production equipment, and inventories; reduced sales, either because production is disrupted or because goods cannot be shipped to the market; and higher costs in the reconstruction phase and after the plant is back in production, as market prices of labor, energy, and logistics may spike following a disaster. The combination of these impacts may also limit suppliers\u0026rsquo; ability to quickly and efficiently restore production, by reducing their ability to raise capital for repairs or by choking short-term cash flow and presenting unusual operational obstacles.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSemiconductor supply could be reduced by an extreme hurricane in several ways: loss of infrastructure services such as roads or power, direct damages to manufacturing assets, and damages to critical internal systems such as specialized equipment. We find that a severe supply disruption can cause cascading production disruptions downstream, particularly for unprepared players (Exhibit 2). Using a hypothetical example, we estimate that downstream players could lose up to a third of annual revenue if supply is disrupted for an illustrative period of five months. This could be the case if no alternative source or substitute was able to keep supply going (beyond a minimal inventory of finished goods) and if no measures had been taken to limit losses from disrupted downstream production (for example, insurance or negotiations with customers to delay supply).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 2]]\n\u003cp\u003eA well-prepared player, on the other hand, may only lose about 5 percent of revenue in a similar event. Preparations may include dual sourcing (so only 50 percent of supply is lost), increasing supplier resiliency through due diligence and collaboration with suppliers on asset hardening; this can limit the recovery time to less than one month. Several other actions can help further reduce the losses, including insurance, even faster recovery through best practice emergency procedures, and discounted cross-selling of substitute products (for example, premium models or older product versions) to end consumers. These adaptations come with a cost that needs to be considered, but many of these investments may be smaller than the loss avoided.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are two key areas of adaptation for semiconductor supply chains: building disaster-proof plants (for producers) and raising inventory levels in order to continue production even if a supply chain is interrupted (for downstream players). We find that building disaster-proof plants means additional costs of roughly 2 percent of the building costs which equals an additional $20 million for an average plant. Raising the inventory to provide a meaningful buffer in case of supply disruption, with estimated costs for warehousing and working capital, could increase input costs by less than a percent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eThe probability heavy rare earths production is severely disrupted from extreme rainfall may increase 2 to 3 times by 2030\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHeavy rare earths production is concentrated in southeastern China, which is increasingly exposed to extreme rainfall. We find that heavy rare earth production in southeastern China will experience extreme precipitation events (defined as events that occurred historically with an annual probability of about 2 percent, corresponding to precipitation of about 170 millimeters per day in the relevant region) twice as often by 2030. Expert estimates and historical events indicate that such rainfall events significantly increase the risk of landslides in the region.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe estimate that the manifestation of an extreme precipitation event, or series of events, could cause at least a 20 percent drop in heavy rare earth output, and potentially much more in a worst-case scenario. Damage mechanisms include excessive mud and landslides in mines, flooding treatment ponds, and disrupted logistics to and from mines. Landslides are of particular concern, as they could both disrupt the ongoing leaching process in the mine if leach holes collapse and prevent production after the landslide if on-site repair works are required before new leach holes are dug (for example, to make sure that the soil has stabilized). This means a large landslide could disrupt production for up to 12 months in severely hit mines, though for most mines the disruption would be shorter if the landslide is shallow and only affects parts of the mine.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEven a limited supply shortfall could cause prices to rise substantially (Exhibit 3). During the supply crisis in 2010\u0026ndash;11, prices of several rare earths increased more than ten times. Since the supply shortages, some rare earth consumers have attempted to build stockpiles in case of price spikes, but public data on the scale of the stockpiling are scarce. For downstream players without substantial inventories, a price spike would mean they either have to reduce their consumption of heavy rare earths or increase their spending.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 3]]\n\u003cp\u003eA supply shortfall would be more critical for some heavy rare earths than others. Since the supply shortage in 2010\u0026ndash;11, significant effort has been put into researching alternatives to rare earths, but with limited success in the key application areas. Going forward, there is concern about whether supply for some of these rare earth elements can keep up with demand for the materials that are used in high-growth segments like cleantech and consumer electronics, as well as high-end segments like aerospace and defense and medical appliances. Disruptions from climatic disruptions will add extra pressure to a supply chain that has little to no slack.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDownstream players dependent on rare earths can protect themselves from climate-change induced physical risk by raising inventory levels at the cost of additional working capital and storage space needed, similar to the semiconductor example above. Rare earth miners can also adapt in other ways, for example, by using different leaching products and processes that decrease the risk of landslides or moving leach holes away from the steepest slopes. We estimate these measures could increase COGS by less than 5 percent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOther adaptation measures could slightly decrease the output of the mines: one option would be to select sites in areas with a lower concentration of mines in order to diversify risk, even if these mines have marginally lower potential. For example, Yunnan and Hunan have less than 2 mines today, while there are more than 54 mines in Jiangxi. Finally, if extreme rainfall is expected, miners could extract the leach in the most mature leach holes ahead of schedule. This would limit destruction of work in progress inventory when the rainfall turns mines to mud. All adaptation measures mentioned could be implemented in the short term and would eliminate about 50 to 80 percent of risk for rare earth miners, according to our estimates.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSupply chains and the infrastructure that supports them are designed for a stable climate. As hazards evolve, it will be necessary to increase investment in adaptation, possibly at the expense of efficiency. We find significant potential for many industries to adapt in the next decade, including conducting risk diagnostics, protecting manufacturing assets, redesigning operations (for example, by increasing safety stock of key inputs), broadening supplier base, shoring up infrastructure, etc. Indeed, measures of this kind are already underway in some areas, including from public authorities, suppliers in high-hazard locations, and customers in downstream sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eFor additional details on the risks to supply chains and possible adaptation measures, download the case study, \u003c/em\u003e\u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/sustainability/our insights/could climate become the weak link in your supply chain/could-climate-become-the-weak-link-in-your-supply-chain-v3.pdf\"\u003eCould climate become the weak link in your supply chain?\u003c/a\u003e (PDF\u0026ndash;865KB).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAbout this case study:\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eIn January 2020, the McKinsey Global Institute published \u003c/em\u003e\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts\"\u003eClimate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts\u003c/a\u003e\u003cem\u003e. In that report, we measured the impact of climate change by the extent to which it could affect human beings, human-made physical assets, and the natural world over the next three decades. In order to link physical climate risk to socioeconomic impact, we investigated nine specific cases that illustrated exposure to climate change extremes and proximity to physical thresholds.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"MGI Research","displayName":"MGI Research","title":{"value":"MGI Research"},"relatedlinks":{"url":"/mgi/overview"},"landinglinks":{"jsonValue":{"value":[]}}}},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2020-08-06T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"McKinsey Sustainability"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/sitecore/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7b8d840caa-6a65-4626-8ce5-1f9fefe604dd%7d%40en\"\u003eLola Woetzel\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute, where \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/mekala-krishnan\"\u003eMekala Krishnan\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior fellow. \u003cstrong\u003eDickon Pinner\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior partner in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s San Francisco office. \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/sitecore/service/notfound.aspx?item=web%3a%7bfd4428d4-5bb2-466c-aea7-4305b520d6d0%7d%40en\"\u003eHamid Samandari\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior partner in the New York office. \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/hauke-engel\"\u003eHauke Engel\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in the Frankfurt office. \u003cstrong\u003eClaudia Kampel \u003c/strong\u003eis a consultant in the Stuttgart office. \u003cstrong\u003eJakob Graabak\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant in the Oslo office. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Anna Bernasek, a senior editor with the McKinsey Global Institute.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"548F5B4C050F45D0B61B709203DA7E52","name":"Lola Woetzel","authorTitle":{"value":"Lola Woetzel"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Lola Woetzel","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/lola woetzel/lola woetzel_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"22372BA697E049959E1D9EB93B36AA1E","name":"Dickon Pinner","authorTitle":{"value":"Dickon Pinner"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"16008486AD414D74B4139371C7B203A8","name":"Hamid Samandari","authorTitle":{"value":"Hamid Samandari"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"E8BDB344313D40629D5C37C7197A6D61","name":"Hauke Engel","authorTitle":{"value":"Hauke Engel"},"description":{"value":"Partner in McKinsey's Sustainability Practice. Leads work on climate change globally and supports businesses across sectors with challenges involving strategy and sustainability"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/hauke engel/hauke-engel_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":"Hauke Engel"},"emailLinks":{"value":"Hauke_Engel@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/hauke-engel-b1204475/"},"description":{"value":"Partner in McKinsey's Sustainability Practice. 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Width"}}},"callToAction":{"url":"/user-registration/register-mvc","text":"Subscribe"},"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Stay current on your favorite topics"}}},{"mediaID":{"value":"left"},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"left"},"value":{"value":"Left"}}},"callToAction":{"url":"/user-registration/register-mvc","text":"Subscribe"},"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Stay current on your favorite topics"}}}]},"articlesidebar":{"results":[{"mediaID":{"value":"1"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eIn \u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts\"\u003eClimate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e, we measured the impact of climate change by the extent to which it could affect human beings, human-made physical assets, and the natural world. We explored risks today and over the next three decades and examined specific cases to understand the mechanisms through which climate change leads to increased socioeconomic risk.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn order to link physical climate risk to socioeconomic impact, we investigated cases that illustrated exposure to climate change extremes and proximity to physical thresholds. These cover a range of sectors and geographies and provide the basis of a \u0026ldquo;micro-to-macro\u0026rdquo; approach that is a characteristic of McKinsey Global Institute research. To inform our selection of cases, we considered over 30 potential combinations of climate hazards, sectors, and geographies based on a review of the literature and expert interviews on the potential direct impacts of physical climate hazards. We found these hazards affect five different key socioeconomic systems: livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe ultimately chose nine cases to reflect these systems and to represent leading-edge examples of climate change risk. Each case is specific to a geography and an exposed system, and thus is not representative of an \u0026ldquo;average\u0026rdquo; environment or level of risk across the world. Our cases show that the direct risk from climate hazards is determined by the severity of the hazard and its likelihood, the exposure of various \u0026ldquo;stocks\u0026rdquo; of capital (people, physical capital, and natural capital) to these hazards, and the resilience of these stocks to the hazards (for example, the ability of physical assets to withstand flooding). We typically define the climate state today as the average conditions between 1998 and 2017, in 2030 as the average between 2021 and 2040, and in 2050 between 2041 and 2060. Through our case studies, we also assess the knock-on effects that could occur, for example to downstream sectors or consumers. We primarily rely on past examples and empirical estimates for this assessment of knock-on effects, which is likely not exhaustive given the complexities associated with socioeconomic systems. Through this \u0026ldquo;micro\u0026rdquo; approach, we offer decision makers a methodology by which to assess direct physical climate risk, its characteristics, and its potential knock-on impacts.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eClimate science makes extensive use of scenarios ranging from lower (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) to higher (RCP 8.5) CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e concentrations. We have chosen to focus on RCP 8.5, because the higher-emission scenario it portrays enables us to assess physical risk in the absence of further decarbonization. (We also choose a sea level rise scenario for one of our cases that is consistent with the RCP 8.5 trajectory.) Such an \"inherent risk\" assessment allows us to understand the magnitude of the challenge and highlight the case for action. For a detailed description of the reason for this choice see the technical appendix of the full report.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur case studies cover each of the five systems we assess to be directly affected by physical climate risk, across geographies and sectors. While climate change will have an economic impact across many sectors, our cases highlight the impact on construction, agriculture, finance, fishing, tourism, manufacturing, real estate, and a range of infrastructure-based sectors. The cases include the following:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor livability and workability, we look at the risk of exposure to extreme heat and humidity in India and what that could mean for that country\u0026rsquo;s urban population and outdoor-based sectors, as well as at the changing Mediterranean climate and how that could affect sectors such as wine and tourism.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor food systems, we focus on the likelihood of a multiple-breadbasket failure affecting wheat, corn, rice, and soy, as well as, specifically in Africa, the impact on wheat and coffee production in Ethiopia and cotton and corn production in Mozambique.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor physical assets, we look at the potential impact of storm surge and tidal flooding on Florida real estate and the extent to which global supply chains, including for semiconductors and rare earths, could be vulnerable to the changing climate.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor infrastructure services, we examine 17 types of infrastructure assets, including the potential impact on coastal cities such as Bristol in England and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFinally, for natural capital, we examine the potential impacts of glacial melt and runoff in the Hindu Kush region of the Himalayas; what ocean warming and acidification could mean for global fishing and the people whose livelihoods depend on it; as well as potential disturbance to forests, which cover nearly one-third of the world\u0026rsquo;s land and are key to the way of life for 2.4 billion people.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e"}},"aboutTheAuthors":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":"An overview of the case study analysis"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"showShareTools":{"boolValue":true},"backgroundColor":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Lightest Grey"},"value":{"value":"lightest-grey"}}},"gradientDirection":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Bottom Right"},"value":{"value":"bottom-right"}}},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Collapsible"},"value":{"value":"default"}}},"isAboutAuthor":{"boolValue":false},"background":{"targetItem":null},"image":{"src":null,"alt":""}}]},"boxout":{"results":[]},"globalsidebar":{"results":[]},"video":{"results":[]},"scrollycontainer":{"results":[]},"bespokeinteractive":{"results":[]},"storycontainer":{"results":[]},"interactive":{"results":[]},"sectionheader":{"results":[]},"statementdisruptor":{"results":[]},"fullbleedphoto":{"results":[]},"tocitem":{"results":[]},"quizcontainer":{"results":[]},"generalup":{"results":[]},"twoupmedium":{"results":[]},"accordion":{"results":[]},"factoid":{"results":[]},"promobarwithquote":{"results":[]},"oneupmedium":{"results":[]},"oneupmediumquote":{"results":[]},"gridwall":{"results":[]},"twoupsmall":{"results":[]},"oneclicksubscribe":{"results":[]},"promobar":{"results":[]},"promobanner":{"results":[]},"sectionhero":{"results":[]},"threeuplinklist":{"results":[]},"table":{"results":[]},"explainertooltip":{"results":[]},"isFiveFiftyHorizontalArticle":{"boolValue":false},"fiveFifty":{"results":[]}},"contextItem":{"ancestors":[{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":"Our Insights"},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Insights on Sustainability","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/capabilities/sustainability/how-we-help-clients"},"breadCrumbTitle":null,"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":true},"displayName":"Sustainability","template":{"id":"414C6C64AD35440E9668CF39D8A18CCF"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/capabilities"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":"Capabilities"},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Capabilities","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}},{"breadCrumbUrl":{"path":"/"},"breadCrumbTitle":{"value":""},"isMiniSite":{"boolValue":false},"displayName":"Home","template":{"id":"85FF05307883480F9A4C82123F72FFD8"}}]}}},"placeholders":{"main-area":[],"sidebar-area":[]}}]}},"itemId":"9bfdfdd6-8ebc-45d9-9235-97e7a199808d","pageEditing":false,"site":{"name":"website"},"pageState":"normal","language":"en","pageMetaData":{"alternateLanguages":[{"languageCode":"en","displayName":"English","url":"/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/could-climate-become-the-weak-link-in-your-supply-chain"}],"currentLanguage":"en","navigationLink":"capabilities","activeItemId":"{167A4DEB-04E8-4AA5-8531-1F0306D97396}","miniSiteId":"{A0C88A50-47ED-49AB-9934-443BB95D39E5}","officeCode":"","officeDisplayName":"","subscriptionPracticeData":null,"isAlaisedPage":false,"originalHostName":"www.mckinsey.com","updatedDate":"2024-02-12T16:19:01Z","createdDate":"2020-07-20T17:24:57Z","practice":{"isDefaultPractice":false,"name":"Sustainability","code":"N31","stickyTitle":"Sign up for emails on new Sustainability articles","stickySubtitle":"Never miss an insight. 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