Mysteel：节后东北地区无缝管价格简要分析-我的钢铁网

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src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/29/01a908487d5e40459a694e4e2c646812.png" alt="" width="521" height="309" /><br /> </p> <p>纵观近五年沈阳地区无缝管价格变化，前两年一季度前后价格以窄幅震荡为主，影响市场价格走势的因素多受东北地区天气影响，下游需求恢复较为缓慢。而在，2021年后，市场金融政策发布，市场价格呈现增长趋势，在2021年7月东北地区无缝管价格到达顶点。在房地产出现震荡后，与之相关的钢材整体情绪受到影响，出现了震荡走低的趋势，底部越来越低，截止今日，沈阳地区无缝管108*4.5mm报4900元/吨，较最高点7100元/吨，下跌2200元/吨。从观察趋势图，近三年春节后价格呈现上行而后震荡走弱的趋势，每年三月一季度数据分布期间，市场交易逻辑多为政策利好仍存，但进几年传统的金三银四并未如期而至，市场价格收到影响，走势偏弱。而从今年情况来看，节后两周原料价格经过充分调整，价格已获得一定的支撑，加上3月需求较一季度前期小幅增加，原料需求将恢复，或将同钢材价格震荡偏强运行态势，但谨防往年出现的基本面矛盾再现导致市场价格下跌。</p> <p align="justify">2.无缝管产量仍处于同期低位</p> <p><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/29/77f9fb0397ae420da4a2dbc57bcd06f8.png" alt="" width="553" height="335" /><br /> </p> <p>观察近三年管厂厂里变化情况，今年产量变化呈现窄幅震荡趋势，供应仍处于全年中低位水平，据笔者电话调研得知，部分管厂有计划调整一季度产量，总体产量下降50%左右。2023年整体产量多于2022年的情况下，市场需求量并未明显提升，管厂库存方面出现了一定的增加。节后无缝管厂产线复产较多，库存增幅较大，截至最新一期调研数据，无缝管厂开工率为48.36%，产能利用率为65.38%，管厂库存突破70万吨，为72.15万吨。目前东北地区管厂接单情况一般，因东北地区恢复较慢，贸易商以消耗冬储库存为主，以目前情况来看，管厂压力仍存。</p> <p>总结</p> <p>综上，近三年节后价格下跌多为需求未达预期，但今年前期整体市场价格并未出现往年上涨情况，经过四季度震荡磨底阶段，此时市场资源多为冬储资源，并未大幅下跌风险。与此同时，需要注意的事，根据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研：企业项目以存量项目为主，而非新开工项目，69.7%的企业新开工项目较去年减少；库存方面管厂以及贸易商高于同期水平，需观察3月份前期市场消化库存情况，若市场需求恢复好于预期，管厂库存压力得到缓解，市场价格有获得支撑的可能，但同时注意天气以及三月会议利好政策不达预期的情况，短期来看东北地区市场价格或有支撑，中长期看冬储资源消化情况。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：赵盼盼 021-26093696 </br> 资讯监督：陈文花 021-26093859 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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