Fifty Years Later: U.S. Intelligence Shortcomings in the Nigerian Civil War

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clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Global Climate Agreements: Successes and Failures</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2020/10/climate.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">International efforts, such as the Paris Agreement, aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But experts say countries aren’t doing enough to limit dangerous global warming. </div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Backgrounder</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Lindsay Maizland and <a href="/bio/clara-fong" class="card-article__authors-link">Clara Fong</a></span> <span class="card-article__date"> January 21, 2025</span> <a href="/programs/renewing-america" class="card-article__series"> Renewing America </a> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/defense-and-security" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Defense & Security</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/diplomacy-and-international-institutions" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Diplomacy & International Institutions</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/economics" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Economics</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/energy-and-environment" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Energy & Environment</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/health" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Health</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/human-rights" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Human Rights</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/politics-and-government" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Politics & Government</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/social-issues" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Social Issues</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/regions" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Regions</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article article card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/index.php/asia/myanmar" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Myanmar </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/index.php/backgrounder/myanmar-history-coup-military-rule-ethnic-conflict-rohingya " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Myanmar’s Troubled History</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2021/02/myanmarbgr.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Introduction Throughout its decades of independence, Myanmar has struggled with military rule, civil war, poor governance, and widespread poverty. A military coup in February 2021 dashed hopes for…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Backgrounder</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Lindsay Maizland</span> <span class="card-article__date"> January 31, 2022</span> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/americas" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Americas</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/asia" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Asia</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/europe-and-eurasia" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Europe & Eurasia</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/global-commons" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Global Commons</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/middle-east-and-north-africa" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Middle East & North Africa</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/oceania" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Oceania</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/sub-saharan-africa" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Sub-Saharan Africa</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/explainers" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Explainers</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article article card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/health" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Health </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/article/how-new-tobacco-control-laws-could-help-close-racial-gap-us-cancer " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">How Tobacco Laws Could Help Close the Racial Gap on Cancer</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2023/01/GettyImages-1409152899_Resized_0.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">During the 2020 presidential campaign, Joe Biden promised that his administration would make a “historic effort” to reduce long-running racial inequities in health. Tobacco use—the leading cause of p…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Interactive</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Olivia Angelino, <a href="/expert/thomas-j-bollyky" class="card-article__authors-link">Thomas J. Bollyky</a>, Elle Ruggiero and Isabella Turilli</span> <span class="card-article__date"> February 1, 2023</span> <a href="/programs/global-health-program" class="card-article__series"> Global Health Program </a> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/backgrounders" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Backgrounders</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/inbriefs" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">In Briefs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/podcasts" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Podcasts</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/videos" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Videos</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/timelines" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Timelines</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/special-projects" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Special Projects</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/infoguides" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">InfoGuides</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/research-analysis" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Research & Analysis</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article report card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/economics/trade" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Trade </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/report/tariffs-trading-partners-can-president-actually-do " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Tariffs on Trading Partners: Can the President Actually Do That? </p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2025/02/2023-06-08T110230Z_229146447_RC2U7Z9AERJW_RTRMADP_3_CALIFORNIA-PORT-AUTOMATION%20%282%29.JPG.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Though Congress holds power over regulating commerce with foreign nations, it has incrementally delegated significant authority to the president, giving him broad discretion to take trade actions.     </div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Report</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by <a href="/expert/inu-manak" class="card-article__authors-link">Inu Manak</a> and <a href="/bio/helena-kopans-johnson" class="card-article__authors-link">Helena Kopans-Johnson</a></span> <span class="card-article__date"> February 4, 2025</span> <a href="/programs/greenberg-center-geoeconomic-studies" class="card-article__series"> Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies </a> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/experts" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Experts</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/programs" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Centers & Programs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/publications" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Books & Reports</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/blog" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Blogs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/task-force-program" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Task Force Program</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/fellowships" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Fellowships</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/outreach" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Communities</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article event card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/oil-and-petroleum-products" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Oil and Petroleum Products </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/event/academic-webinar-geopolitics-oil " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Academic Webinar: The Geopolitics of Oil</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <span class="card-article__icon"> <svg viewBox="0 0 15 15" class="icon icon-play" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Play</title> <path d="M0 15V0l15 7.5z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </span> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_xl/public/image/2023/04/cms%20Saudi%20Arabia%20oil%20refinery%20by%20Ahmed%20Jadallah%20Reuters.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Webinar</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> with Carolyn Kissane and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/bio/irina-faskianos" class="card-article__authors-link">Irina A. 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class="article-header__title">Fifty Years Later: U.S. Intelligence Shortcomings in the Nigerian Civil War</h1> <figure class="article-header__image for-tablet-down"> <div class="article-header__image-picture"> <img src="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/slide_3_2/public/image/2017/09/CIA-US-Intelligence-Biafra-Nigeria-War.webp" alt="The lobby of the CIA Headquarters Building in Langley, Virginia, U.S. on August 14, 2008." class="article-header__image-img" /> </div> <figcaption class="article-header__image-caption"> The lobby of the CIA Headquarters Building in Langley, Virginia, U.S. on August 14, 2008. <span class="author">Larry Downing/Reuters</span> </figcaption> </figure> <p class="article-header__byline"> <span class="article-header__metadata-type article-header__metadata-type--with-definition" > Post </span><span class="article-header__byline__by">by</span> <a href="/bio/john-campbell" class="article-header__link">John Campbell</a> </p> <p class="article-header__date-ttr"> <span>September 19, 2017 10:38 am (EST)</span> </p> </section> <section class="article-header__section-bottom"> <div class="share-kit share-kit--icon-color-coral share-kit--bg-color-white " data-share-anchor="" data-share-query="" data-share-name="Fifty Years Later: U.S. Intelligence Shortcomings in the Nigerian Civil War" data-share-description="The Nigerian Civil war, which lasted from July 1966 to January 1970, remains the most significant event in the country’s post-independence history in ways reminiscent of the American Civil Wa…" data-share-caption="" data-share-picture="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/image/2017/09/CIA-US-Intelligence-Biafra-Nigeria-War.jpg" data-share-type="article" data-share-authors="[{"first_name":"John","middle_name":"","last_name":"Campbell"}]" > <div class="share-kit__icons"> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" onclick="CFR.Share.facebook(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-facebook" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> 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data-share-picture="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/image/2017/09/CIA-US-Intelligence-Biafra-Nigeria-War.jpg" data-share-type="article" data-share-authors="[{"first_name":"John","middle_name":"","last_name":"Campbell"}]"> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" onclick="CFR.Share.facebook(this)"> Facebook </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__twitter" onclick="CFR.Share.twitter(this)" data-summary="CFR 140 character message"> X </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__linkedin" onclick="CFR.Share.linkedin(this)"> LinkedIn </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__email" onclick="CFR.Share.email(this)"> Email </button> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <figure class="article-header__image "> <div class="article-header__image-picture"> <img src="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/slide_3_2/public/image/2017/09/CIA-US-Intelligence-Biafra-Nigeria-War.webp" alt="The lobby of the CIA Headquarters Building in Langley, Virginia, U.S. on August 14, 2008." class="article-header__image-img" /> </div> <figcaption class="article-header__image-caption"> The lobby of the CIA Headquarters Building in Langley, Virginia, U.S. on August 14, 2008. <span class="author">Larry Downing/Reuters</span> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </header> <dl class="article-header-glossary-def"> <dt class="article-header-glossary-def__term">Post</dt> <dd class="article-header-glossary-def__definition">Blog posts represent the views of CFR fellows and staff and not those of CFR, which takes no institutional positions. </dd> </dl> <div class="main-wrapper__article-body main-wrapper__article-body-explainer"> <aside class="right-rail"> </aside> <div class="highlight-to-share"> <div class="body-content"><body><p>The Nigerian Civil war, which lasted from July 1966 to January 1970, remains the most significant event in the country’s post-independence history in ways reminiscent of the American Civil War. In the aftermath of a coup, a counter-coup, and a pogrom against the predominately Christian Igbos living in the mostly Muslim north, Igbos in their south-eastern homeland organized an independent state, Biafra, and attempted to secede from the Nigerian Federation. The civil war left an estimated 1.5 million dead, mostly from disease and starvation. Commonly called the Biafra War in the West, it was the first in a dreary series of large and highly publicized post-independence conflicts, which include those in Angola, Central African Republic, Congo, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, and Sudan. A widely published photograph of a starving Igbo child became the face in the West of these African conflicts.</p> <p>In the United States, especially on college campuses and in progressive circles, there was strong support for the Biafran cause. Activists in the Vietnam anti-war movement, the civil rights movement, and the feminist movement tended to support Biafra. Pro-Biafra sentiment was strengthened by Biafra’s highly effective international propaganda and by the presence of large numbers of Igbo students on American college campuses, sent there by various Nigerian governments using newly-acquired oil wealth. Hence, Biafra was an American domestic issue, as well as a foreign policy challenge for the Johnson and Nixon administrations. In addressing those challenges, presidents Johnson and Nixon turned to the intelligence community (IC), as all administrations do when shaping foreign policy.</p><section class="more-on desktop-only "> <p class="more-on__title">More on:</p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/sub-saharan-africa/nigeria" class="more-on__link">Nigeria</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/defense-and-security/intelligence" class="more-on__link">Intelligence</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/defense-and-security/wars-and-conflict" class="more-on__link">Wars and Conflict</a> </p> </section> <p>More than fifty years after the end of the Nigerian civil war, Judd Devermont has analyzed the IC’s biases that contributed to distortions in policy making in a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article/doi/10.1093/afraf/adx032/4106239/The-US-intelligence-community-s-biases-during-the" title="recently published paper" target="_blank">recently published paper</a>. Devermont is currently the national intelligence officer for Africa at the U.S. National Intelligence Council. Hence, he is writing as an insider. His lessons-learned study has a primary focus on intelligence, but it also provides important insights into the broader process (or lack thereof) of policy making.</p> <section class="desktop-only newsletter-form-article default-embed"> <div id="subscription-breaker" class="newsletter-tout "> <div class="newsletter-tout__content-wrapper"> <div class="newsletter-tout__form newsletter-tout__initial" id="4aa42e53-7b57-4b66-aec1-bc56b356084e"> <h3 class="newsletter-tout__title"> <div>Africa in Transition</div> </h3> <div class="newsletter-tout__blurb"> <div><p>Michelle Gavin, Ebenezer Obadare, and other experts track political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa. 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<h3 class="newsletter-tout__title newsletter-tout__recommended-title">Think Global Health</h3> </div> <div class="newsletter-tout__blurb newsletter-tout__recommended-blurb"><p>A curation of original analyses, data visualizations, and commentaries, examining the debates and efforts to improve health worldwide. <em>Weekly.</em></p> </div></div><div class="newsletter-tout__legal">By entering your email and clicking subscribe, you're agreeing to receive announcements from CFR about our products and services, as well as invitations to CFR events. You are also agreeing to our <a href="https://www.cfr.org/privacy-policy" title="Privacy Policy" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a> and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/terms-use" title="Terms of Use" target="_blank">Terms of Use</a>.</div><div class="newsletter-tout__form-container email-signup-form__container js-form-wrapper form-wrapper" data-drupal-selector="edit-container" id="edit-container"><input class="embedded__newsletter-submitbtn button-container__btn button js-form-submit form-submit" id="post-signup-submit" data-drupal-selector="post-signup-submit" type="submit" name="op" value="Subscribe"> <div class="newsletter-tout__viewall"> <a href="https://link.cfr.org/join/66n/signup&hash=2d4c5929e9e04cc42f5cd375fb8dcfb1" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="View all newsletters >">View all newsletters <span>></span></a> </div></div> </div><input autocomplete="off" data-drupal-selector="form-8-ci-4r5s1fyba2imfz0r-vkey2bwr-5ucbeuqtyl68" type="hidden" name="form_build_id" value="form-8-CI_4R5S1fyBa2ImfZ0R-VKEy2bwr-5ucBeuqTyl68"> <input data-drupal-selector="edit-embedded-form-2" type="hidden" name="form_id" value="embedded-form-2"> </form> </div> </div> </section> <p>Devermont give good marks to the IC’s reporting on the coming of the civil war. However, once the war started, Devermont shows that IC “cognitive biases and faulty assumptions tilted its judgments in favor of Biafra and amplified its fear of mass atrocities committed by Nigerian forces.” Those biases included wishful thinking about the Biafran military, an undervaluing of the Nigerian military, and an over-estimation of the abilities of Odumegwu Ojukwu, the charming, Oxford-educated Biafran leader. The IC also underestimated Yakubu Gowon, the Nigerian chief of state who, among other things, was a Christian, which contradicted the popular Muslims vs. Christians narrative. Contrary to IC views, he successfully instituted a policy of “no winners, no losers” once the civil war was over in order to reintegrate Biafra. (Arguably, national reconciliation in Nigeria took place faster than in the post-civil war United States.) </p> <p>Devermont concludes with lessons for the IC community that are equally applicable to the broader policy community. 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