Mysteel：新能源车企减停产不断向上传导镍需求压力凸显-我的钢铁网

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微软雅黑;">2022年4月11日，沪<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍</a>早市开盘后随即出现大幅下跌，午前一度跌破了21万关口；午后有所回升，主力2205合约收盘于210900元/吨，较上一交易日下跌6420元/吨，跌幅2.95%；伦镍亦在下午开盘后大幅跟跌，截至北京时间15:54，伦镍下跌3.77%至32710美元/吨。目前内外价差仍然巨大，沪伦比6.42，进口亏损2.75万元/吨。</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/11/d7e93cf09fa343a888419331c24c9c50.png" width="604" height="335" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;" align="justify"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">造成<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍价</a>大幅下跌的原因，</span><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>认为主要有以下几点：</span></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;" align="justify"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-weight: bold; font-size: 14.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1、美联储加快货币紧缩步伐宏观利空刺激镍价下跌</span></span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日前，美联储公布的</span>3月议息会议的会议纪要显示，<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;">此次会议讨论的结果比此前预期的更加鹰派。</span>美联储官员在3月会议上讨论了缩表路线图，多数与会官员认为，每月最多缩减950亿美元资产可能是合适的，且可能需要1次或多次加息50个基点。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">此外，美联储理事、鸽派官员布雷纳德（</span>Lael Brainard）近期表示，为使通胀降温，美联储需要采取更快速更激进的行动，在稳步加息的同时，须快速缩减资产负债表，可能最快5月启动缩表，而加息幅度可能高于传统的25个基点。</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/11/27c4a12a572b44428f035009363c28c5.png" width="538" height="287" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在三月的议息会议上，</span></span><a href="https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美联储</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">市场</span></span><a href="https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E5%A7%94%E5%91%98%E4%BC%9A"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">委员会</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">已经宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间上调</span>25个基点。而根据CME Fed Watch的数据显示，美联储5月再度加息50基点的概率接近80%，市场预期美联储之后的加息次数将从早前预测的6次升至9次。</span></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">宏观利空的刺激下，市场避险情绪蔓延。不仅伦沪镍，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0203-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铅</a>等其他有色品种，以及黑色、能源等期货盘面也出现不同程度的下挫。</span></span></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-weight: bold; font-size: 14.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2、镍矿及中间品供应增加成本端支撑走弱</span></span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">随着国际能源署（</span>IEA）一个月内第二次释放原油储备，国际原油价格逐渐回落至100美元/桶以下。海运费也随之下调，菲律宾至中国的镍矿海运费从前期高位的32美元/湿吨，下降至22美元/湿吨。此外，二季度随着菲律宾雨季的结束，镍矿供应也将有显著增加。</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/11/926319dc49b04ec49f51774bbe7be0eb.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">近期，钢厂积极入场采购，国内中高镍铁成交价格不断上移，国内镍铁出厂价格已攀升至</span>1615-1630元/镍；到厂价格也已达到1640-1650元/镍。目前市场交投氛围活跃，多家主流钢厂各有上万吨成交。国内多数镍铁厂即期利润率普遍超过了10%，部分自备电厂企业利润率超过20%。</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/11/53e94e2f7db047dfbbacdc6fc24235b6.png" width="522" height="295" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在原料供应充足及利润可观的情况下，</span>4月份国内镍铁产量预计将有所增加，镍铁价格向上动力不足，预计</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">价格维持在</span>1620-1650元/镍</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></span></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">另一方面，印尼各中间品项目的陆续投产将从二季度开始带来大量的原料回流。随着青山高冰镍产线不断放量，到达国内的货物将逐月递增；同时国内的高冰镍相关加工产线也在逐步开工投料（详见</span></span><a href="https://info.mybxg.com/22/0407/22/54921E5B5FA3D013.html"><em><u><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; color: #0000ff; text-decoration: underline; font-style: italic; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">《华友高冰镍加工产线投产</span> 下半年新能源镍豆消费将显著下降》</span></u></em></a><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">）。二季度后每月高冰镍回流量预计达到</span>1万镍金属吨以上，将有效缓解自2021年以来新能源产业原料供应紧张的情况。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-weight: bold; font-size: 14.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3、疫情影响下游开工需求端消费动力不足</span></span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3月开始国内疫情出现新一轮反复，尤其在<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>及新能源企业较为集中的东部沿海地区，部分城市防控措施加强，限制人员流动，导致产业链的仓储、物流、销售、交易结算等商业活动受到严重阻碍。</span></span></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不锈钢行业方面，由于东部沿海省市物流管控加强，不锈钢企业的原料供应、下游出货都受到较大影响。但目前为止，各主流钢厂开工率均维持稳定，产业内并无大规模停产发生。而在国内不锈钢的主要交易集散中心无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>和佛山两地，无锡地区目前物流运输</span>“易进难出”，几乎没有车队愿意运货入锡，当地物流订单减少了70-80%；佛山则虽然管控亦有加强，但物流运输尚正常运行。总体来说，在疫情影响下，不锈钢市场运行受到了较大影响，下游运输不畅，库存也有所累库。</span></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">新能源行业方面，在防控最为严格的上海地区，上汽通用、特斯拉上海工厂等早已宣布暂时停产。蔚来汽车也表示，由于其在吉林、上海和江苏等地的零部件供应商纷纷暂停生产，公司也不得不停止电动车生产，目前的订单也将延后交付。而宁德时代与</span>ATL则表示，相应政府的物流管控政策，已严格采取网格化管理模式，确保宁德基地有序生产。</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/11/8ef50f7cba4a4fcbb0e418bd1849091a.png" width="405" height="209" /></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;" align="justify"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">总体来看，在疫情影响下，不锈钢及新能源原料供应、生产及终端消费均受影响，对镍原料需求增速放缓或持平。</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;" align="justify"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-weight: bold; font-size: 14.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">总结及预期</span></span></strong></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">二季度菲律宾</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">雨季结束，镍矿发运恢复</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。在</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">原料供应充足及利润较好下，</span>4月</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">份国内</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">镍铁产量将有所增加。而不锈钢</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">则</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">因钢厂盘价过高</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">，</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">以及疫情影响等问题导致不锈钢产量环比</span>3月持平</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">，</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">原料供应</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">偏紧</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">局面</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">将有所</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">缓解，镍铁价格向上动力不足，价格维持在</span>1620-1650元/镍。</span></p> <p style="text-indent: 21pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">新能源方面，三元正极调涨，给予前端原料空间，硫酸<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍价格</a>或将以补涨方式进行利润修复。但下游电池及汽车行业承受成本上涨压力，产量增速放缓，短期</span>镍价或震荡偏弱运行，震荡区间20-22万元/吨。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12.0000pt;"> </span></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block 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