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Mysteel周报：华东冷轧板卷价格延续跌势 成交表现不佳（7.26-8.2）-我的钢铁网
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<p>具体价格来看，上海市场1.0*1250*C本钢冷卷3800元/吨，较上周下跌60元/吨；宁波市场1.0*1250*C本钢冷卷3860元/吨，较上周下跌20元/吨；常州市场1.0*1250*C本钢冷卷3890元/吨，较上周下跌40元/吨；杭州市场1.0*1250*C邯钢冷卷3900元/吨，较上周下跌40元/吨；合肥市场1.0*1250*C马钢冷卷3920元/吨，较上周下跌40元/吨；南昌市场1.0*1250*C新钢冷卷4000元/吨，较上周下跌50元/吨；日照市场1.0*1250*C山钢日照冷卷3780元/吨，较上周下跌70元/吨。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/08/02/2e458437de9a4983843270a37c98f7a9.png" width="1000" height="171" /></p> <p>三、市场情况</p> <p>上海市场：本周上海冷轧现货价格下跌60元/吨，市场周初继续走弱，周中后相对稳定。具体价格方面，截至发稿1.0鞍卷3800，本卷3800，鞍板3880，本板3860，青山卷3880，唐二卷3800，首卷3800，邯卷3800；1.5-2.0各大钢厂3790-3860（元/吨）。冷热价差方面，本周上海市场冷热价差为370元/吨，周环比扩大10元/吨。库存方面，8月2日本网所盘上海全体仓库冷轧库存周环比下降0.6万吨，市场继续走弱背景下，贸易商订货消极，库存因此出现走低。钢厂方面，目前由于贸易商订货谨慎，终端订单不足，钢厂接单压力依旧较大。后市而言，上海冷轧价格维持在3800元/吨附近，期货继续下行空间收窄，短期现货价格下跌空间同样表现也不大，预计上海冷轧价格走势将震荡偏弱。</p> <p>宁波市场：本周宁波冷轧板卷价格偏弱运行。截至发稿，1.0*1250*C本钢冷轧报盘3860元/吨，1.0*1250*C鞍钢冷轧报盘3880元/吨，1.0*1250*C新天钢冷轧报盘3890元/吨。市场方面，本周热卷期货盘面震荡运行，周中期卷盘面波动加剧，市场整体观望心态浓厚；周五盘面震荡上行，但无法带动市场现货价格跟涨，下游采取逢低采买策略。近日市场成交略显冷清，成交量继续萎缩，贸易商在销售压力下，对于市场信心稍显不足，主动锁单意愿不强。综合来看，下周宁波冷轧板卷价格或将继续震荡偏弱运行。</p> <p>常州市场：本周常州冷轧市场价格继续弱势下行。价格方面：截至发稿，1.0*1250*C本钢冷轧报盘3890元/吨，1.0*1250*C鞍钢冷轧报盘3910元/吨，1.0*1250*C日钢冷成形报盘3840元/吨。市场方面，本周热卷期货盘面震荡偏弱运行，现货市场价格跟跌为主。再者，受上海等周边市场较大库存量的低价资源流出影响，常州市场竞争压力进一步加剧，且相对来说，常州市场对于客户的竞争力更弱，为保证出货，也只能跟着在价格上不断作出让步来换取客户。库存方面，据最新统计数据，船厂库冷轧板卷库存周环比减少0.24万吨，当前库存变现能力较弱，市场心态低迷，短期现货仍有压力。综合来看，预计下周常州市场冷轧价格或将继续弱势运行为主。</p> <p>山东市场：本周山东冷轧价格仍弱势下跌。具体价格方面：1.0莱钢报3730元/吨，周环比下跌100元/吨。从市场了解情况来看，本周期货盘面震荡运行，但市场交投氛围不加，现货价格多是以下跌为主，市场成交整体表现一般。据贸易商反馈，八月山东有钢厂冷轧停产，市场供应或将有所减弱，但总体影响并不大，再加上贸易商手中资源较多，对市场价格支撑力度并不足，市场价格仍跟随市场需求变化为主。钢厂结算价已经陆续出台，大多与现货价格倒挂，贸易商大多反馈目前亏损严重，逐渐有减少钢厂订货量的操作，再加上处于市场淡季，对后市多以谨慎偏悲观看待。综合来看梅雨季下周山东冷轧板卷价格或将窄幅偏弱运行为主。</p> <p>四、总结</p> <p>当前需求端弱势未改，在供应端供应量不减的情况下，市场后期想要止跌或者是企稳的可能性不大，预计下周华东市场冷轧价格或将继续震荡趋弱运行。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> 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