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<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd"> <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" lang="en"> <head> <title>Senate races 2024</title> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" /> <meta name="keywords" content="election, electoral vote, poll, polls, pollster, President, Senate, election prediction" /> <meta name="description" content="Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls." /> <meta name="robots" content="noodp" /> <link rel="icon" href="/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon" /> <link rel="stylesheet" media="all" href="/evp2024/style.css" type="text/css"/> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="RSS" href="../RSS/index.rss" /> <meta http-equiv="Expires" content="Sun, 31 Dec 2000 08:00:00 GMT" /> <meta http-equiv="Pragma" content="no-cache" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-cache" /> </head> <body> <div class="internal-body"> <div class="header"> <div class="header-holder-int"> <div class="bar"> <a class="text-electoral" href="/">electoral-vote.com</a> <div class="placeholder"> <a href="http://www.votefromabroad.org"><img src="../Art/VFA.jpg" alt="votefromabroad.org" width="602" height="62" /></a> </div> </div> <div class="blue-box"> Senate races 2024 </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-int"> <div class="container-int"> <div class="section-int">    <p>The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the three independents as Democrats):</p> <ul> <li> 23 Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2024 and 28 seats are not up, for a total of 51 seats</li> <li> 11 Republican seats are up for reelection in 2024 and 38 seats are not up, for a total of 49 seats</li> </ul> <p>For the time being, we are assuming all incumbents will run for reelection unless they specifically state that they won't.</p> <p>The map strongly favors the Republicans. Half a dozen Democrats are potentially in danger and no Republicans are potentially in danger. Democrats have to play defense in Arizona, Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, and West Virginia, among other places. <p>The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Independents and then Republicans following.</p> <p>Click on a <b>picture</b> for the candidate's <b>webpage</b>.<br /> Click on a <b>name</b> for the candidate's entry in <b>Wikipedia</b>.<br /> Click on a <b>party</b> (D) or (R) for the <b>state party.</b><br /></p> <a name="binoculars"></a> <p>The <img src="../Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> indicates a race to watch.</p> <p>All links open in a new window. Type CTRL-W in the window to close it (Command-W on a Mac).</p> <hr/>  <b>Map of the 2024 Senate races. Mouse over a state for the candidates. Details of all the races are below the map.</b> <table> <tr> <td> <div class="map-holder"> <script type="text/javascript" language="JavaScript" src="/evp2024/Senate/JS/senate_map.js"></script> <noscript> <img width="580" height="359" src="/evp2024/Senate/Pngs/senate_map.png" alt="Electoral college map" /> </noscript> </div> <br /> </td> <td>     </td> <td> <div class="frame"> <ul class="legend-list"> <li class="legend-1">Strongly Dem (41)</li> <li class="legend-2">Likely Dem (1)</li> <li class="legend-3">Barely Dem (5)</li> <li class="legend-4">Exactly tied (0)</li> <li class="legend-5">Barely GOP (2)</li> <li class="legend-6">Likely GOP (4)</li> <li class="legend-7">Strongly GOP (47)</li> </ul> </div> </td> </tr> </table> <div class="block"> <strong class="poll-label">Dem <acronym title="States with a Republican senator where Democrat is leading now">pickups vs. current Senate</acronym>:</strong> <strong class="dem-pickups"> (None) </strong>                    <strong class="poll-label"> GOP <acronym title="States with a Democratic Senator where the Republican is leading now">pickups vs. current Senate</acronym>: </strong> <strong class="gop-pickups"> MT OH PA WV </strong> </div> <hr /> <h1>Democratic-held seats</h1> <a name="CA"> </a> <h2>California</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/california.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://adamschiff.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Adam_Schiff.gif" class="center" alt="Adam Schiff" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Schiff" target="_blank"> <br /> Adam <br /> Schiff </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.cadem.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://stevegarvey.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Steve_Garvey.gif" class="center" alt="Steve Garvey" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Garvey" target="_blank"> <br /> Steve <br /> Garvey </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.cadem.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Dianne Feinstein would have been 91 on Election Day, which is well past retirement age in most professions, but is middle-aged in a body where members sometimes linger past the century mark (see: Thurmond, Strom). Still, she decided to throw in the towel. This set off a feeding frenzy because open Senate seats in California are a once-in-a-generation event. Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) couldn't wait and declared even before Feinstein announced her plans. A day later, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) told fellow lawmakers that she was in. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) also jumped in. Later Feinstein died, but that didn't affect the race. At first, everyone thought it would be Schiff vs. Porter in November, but Schiff played dirty. He ran ads telling the voters how Trumpy and conservative former baseball player Steve Garvey is. It worked. Republicans streamed to the polling places and Garvey came in second. Now it is Schiff vs. Garvey in November and Schiff will win in a landslide. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="CT"> </a> <h2>Connecticut</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/connecticut.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.chrismurphy.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Chris_Murphy.gif" class="center" alt="Chris Murphy" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Murphy" target="_blank"> <br /> Chris <br /> Murphy </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ctdems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://coreyforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Matthew_Corey.gif" class="center" alt="Matthew Corey" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Corey" target="_blank"> <br /> Matthew <br /> Corey </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ct.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Nothing to see here. Murphy is popular in his home state, is a leading Trump critic, and won his first Senate election by 11 points. The second time he won by 20 points. The Republicans will find some sacrificial lamb, but it won't matter who it is except to determine whether Murphy's margin is 10 points, 20 points, or 30 points. The sacrificial lamb is a Navy veteran who owned a window cleaning company and later a pub at a golf course. Are those qualifications for the Senate? Well, he's very Trumpy, which is clearly enough. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="DE"> </a> <h2>Delaware</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/delaware.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.lisabluntrochester.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Lisa_Rochester.gif" class="center" alt="Lisa Rochester" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Rochester" target="_blank"> <br /> Lisa <br /> Rochester </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.deldems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://voteerichansen" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Eric_Hansen.gif" class="center" alt="Eric Hansen" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Hansen" target="_blank"> <br /> Eric <br /> Hansen </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.delawaregop.com" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Given how many seats the Democrats need to defend in 2024, they are lucky that quite a few of them are safe. Delaware is in that category even though the retirement of Tom Carper has made it an open seat. The state's only representative, Lisa Blunt Rochester, will be the Democratic nominee and also almost certainly the winner of the general election. A Republican did file and get the nomination. His name is Eric Hansen. His main qualification seems to be he went to church on his own at 12. He later became an executive at Walmart, so he is a man of the people. His platform is pretty close to what a generic Democrat would have (pro-choice, pro-climate) but it won't do him any good. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="HI"> </a> <h2>Hawaii</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/hawaii.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.mazieforhawaii.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Mazie_Hirono.gif" class="center" alt="Mazie Hirono" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazie_Hirono" target="_blank"> <br /> Mazie <br /> Hirono </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.hawaiidemocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://votemcdermott.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Bob_McDermott.gif" class="center" alt="Bob McDermott" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_McDermott" target="_blank"> <br /> Bob <br /> McDermott </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.gophawaii.com" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Hawaii is the bluest state in the Union, and Hirono has solid approval ratings. The only thing she has to fear is a challenge from the left. That didn't materialize last time and probably won't this time. She's safe. The Republicans did find a candidate, though. Bob McDermott. He was in the Marine Corps and then in the Hawaii state House a few terms, where he championed "traditional marriage," that is, he opposed same-sex marriage. He ran for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and was crushed. It's going to happen again. We guess he has nothing better to do with his time. He should do something more productive, like surfing. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="MD"> </a> <h2>Maryland</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/maryland.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.angelaalsobrooks.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Angela_Alsobrooks.gif" class="center" alt="Angela Alsobrooks" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Alsobrooks" target="_blank"> <br /> Angela <br /> Alsobrooks </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.mddems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://larryhogan.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Larry_Hogan.gif" class="center" alt="Larry Hogan" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Hogan" target="_blank"> <br /> Larry <br /> Hogan </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.mdgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Ben Cardin would be 87 at the end of a new term and saw what happened to Dianne Feinstein at the end of her life. He doesn't want to follow her down that road, so he will retire after this term. Maryland has boatloads of Democrats who would love his job. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) is the best known one, but he declined. The main Democratic candidates were Rep. David Trone and Angela Alsobrooks. Trone spent $61 million of his own money in the primary and lost anyway, so Alsobrooks, who is Black, will face former Maryland governor Larry Hogan. Maryland is very blue but Hogan is far better knownn than Alsobrooks, so the DSCC will have to spend money in Maryland that it would much prefer to spend in Ohio or Montana. That's politics. On the other hand, Arizona is looking good for the blue team, with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) both outraising and outpolling crazy right-winger Kari Lake, so the DSCC won't have to spend any money there. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="MA"> </a> <h2>Massachusetts</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/massachusetts.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.elizabethwarren.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Elizabeth_Warren.gif" class="center" alt="Elizabeth Warren" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Warren" target="_blank"> <br /> Elizabeth <br /> Warren </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.massdems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://johndeatonforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/John_Deaton.gif" class="center" alt="John Deaton" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Deaton" target="_blank"> <br /> John <br /> Deaton </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.massgop.com" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Elizabeth Warren has a huge national profile and is an incumbent in a very blue state. The only Republican who could possibly cause her to sweat is former governor Charlie Baker. But he is not running, so it's all over but the shoutin'. For reasons we can't imagine, multiple Republicans filed to run against her. A Marine Corps veteran and lawyer named John Deaton won the primary. He supports ordinary people. For example, his platform states: "As your next Senator, I will fight for policies like reforming the Accredited Investor Rule, which currently excludes over 90% of the population from being able to own private equity the way members of Congress can." Right. What poor people need is the legal right to invest their millions in private equity. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="MI"> </a> <h2>Michigan    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/michigan.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://elissaslotkin.org" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Elissa_Slotkin.gif" class="center" alt="Elissa Slotkin" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elissa_Slotkin" target="_blank"> <br /> Elissa <br /> Slotkin </a> <br /> <a href="https://michigandems.com" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.rogersforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Mike_Rogers.gif" class="center" alt="Mike Rogers" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Rogers" target="_blank"> <br /> Mike <br /> Rogers </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.migop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Debbie Stabenow eked out a victory in her first Senate race, defeating incumbent Spencer Abraham (R) 49.5% to 48%. Since then, she's won by 16, 21, and 5 points, so she's clearly good at harnessing the power of incumbency. At 72, she could probably serve another two terms easily, but she decided to retire and won't run for reelection. The Democratic bench in Michigan is loaded. The governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and AG are all Democrats. So are seven members of the U.S. House and 20 members of the state Senate. Nevertheless, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) entered the race and scared off all the others. She won the nomination easily. The Republicans got former representative Mike Rogers to jump in. He is a Bushy Republican, not a Trumpy Republican. He won his primary, so it is Slotkin vs. Rogers. It could be a close race but polling has Slotkin consistently ahead. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="MN"> </a> <h2>Minnesota</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/minnesota.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.amyklobuchar.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Amy_Klobuchar.gif" class="center" alt="Amy Klobuchar" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar" target="_blank"> <br /> Amy <br /> Klobuchar </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.dfl.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://roycewhite.us" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Royce_White.gif" class="center" alt="Royce White" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royce_White" target="_blank"> <br /> Royce <br /> White </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.mngop.com" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Amy Klobuchar is one of the most popular members of the Senate with an approval rating of 58%. She ran for president in 2020 and would probably have considered it again if Joe Biden had declined to run. Since he wanted another term, she went for another term as well and will get it easily. The Republicans found a candidate in Royce White. He was drafted by the NBA Houston Rockets but never played because his fear of flying made it impossible to get to games away from home. How does he expect to be a senator, where you have to spend some time in D.C. and some time back home if you don't want to fly? By train? Nope. Amtrak doesn't have any trains from D.C. to Minneapolis. If you don't mind spending a night in Chicago, you can do it that way, though. Fortunately, the problem won't arise in practice since he will crushed like a bug. We sometimes wonder why anyone would enter a race that you have a 99.999% chance of losing in a landslide. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="MT"> </a> <h2>Montana    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/montana.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.jontester.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Jon_Tester.gif" class="center" alt="Jon Tester" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Tester" target="_blank"> <br /> Jon <br /> Tester </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.montanademocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://timformt.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Tim_Sheehy.gif" class="center" alt="Tim Sheehy" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Sheehy" target="_blank"> <br /> Tim <br /> Sheehy </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.mtgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Montana is a tough state to get a read on. On one hand, Donald Trump won there by 17 points in 2020. The other senator, Steve Daines, is a Republican as are the governor and both representatives. Nevertheless, Tester has been elected to the Senate three times, so he is a good fit for the state. This race will be his toughest ever, with the Republicans doing absolutely everything to unseat him. At first there was going to be a tough primary, with Rep. Matt Rosendale vs. businessman Tim Sheehy. Then Rosendale dropped out a week after jumping in. Somebody must have gotten to him. So Sheehy became the Republican nominee. The state legislature tried to pass a new law to create a top-two primary, like California and Washington. The goal of this was get the Libertarian Party off the November ballot, in the hope that libertarian voters then hold their noses and vote for the Republican. In the end it backfired and the Libertarian candidate will be on the November ballot. In a close election, 2-3% taken from the GOP could matter. Sheehy is leading in the polling even though he is a carpetbagger from Minnesota. Control of the Senate may depend on this race. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="NV"> </a> <h2>Nevada    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/nevada.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.rosenfornevada.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Jacky_Rosen.gif" class="center" alt="Jacky Rosen" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacky_Rosen" target="_blank"> <br /> Jacky <br /> Rosen </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.nvdems.com" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://captainsambrown.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Sam_Brown.gif" class="center" alt="Sam Brown" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Brown" target="_blank"> <br /> Sam <br /> Brown </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.nevadagop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Nevada is a bluish swing state. The voters just tossed out the Democratic governor and replaced him with a Republican. However, both senators are Democrats, three of the four House seats have Democrats sitting in them, and Democrats control both chambers of the state legislature. Rosen won her first try for the Senate in 2018 when she beat an incumbent (Dean Heller) by 5 points. She is certainly in a strong position in a presidential election year but no shoo-in. The Republican primary was contested and the NRSC favorite, Sam Brown, won. He is an Army veteran who was badly burned while fighting in Afghanistan. That will certainly help with veterans, but Nevada doesn't have a lot of veterans. Still, as a swing state, the race should be competitive. But it is not. Rosen will probably win by close to double digits. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="NJ"> </a> <h2>New Jersey</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/new-jersey.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.andykim.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Andy_Kim.gif" class="center" alt="Andy Kim" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Kim" target="_blank"> <br /> Andy <br /> Kim </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.njdems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://bashawforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Curtis_Bashaw.gif" class="center" alt="Curtis Bashaw" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_Bashaw" target="_blank"> <br /> Curtis <br /> Bashaw </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.njgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> New Jersey hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 1972, so this seat is likely to remain in Democratic hands next year. However, Bob Menendez has been connected to a shady eye doctor named Dr. Salomon Melgen, who is now a convicted felon, and Menendez was indicted for taking bribes from him. The trial resulted in a hung jury and the government decided to drop the case, so Menendez got off. The Senate Ethics Committee admonished Menendez. This year he was indicted for taking bribes and being an unregistered foreign agent for Egypt. He knew he couldn't win so he decided not to run for the Democratic nomination. Instead he registered to run as an independent and has said he would run if he was acquitted. He wasn't acquitted. He was comvicted and is going to prison, not the Senate. Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) and Tammy Murphy, wife of the sitting governor, both jumped into the Democratic race. Then on March 24, Murphy dropped out. Kim got the Democratic nomination and easily be elected. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="NM"> </a> <h2>New Mexico</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/new-mexico.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.martinheinrich.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Martin_Heinrich.gif" class="center" alt="Martin Heinrich" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Heinrich" target="_blank"> <br /> Martin <br /> Heinrich </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.dpnm.net" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://nellaforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Nella_Domenici.gif" class="center" alt="Nella Domenici" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nella_Domenici" target="_blank"> <br /> Nella <br /> Domenici </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.newmexico.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Martin Heinrich's net approval rating is +14 points and New Mexico is a blue state. In 2022, the Republicans ran a TV weatherman (Mark Ronchetti) against Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) and she won by 6 points. He could have run again and predicted sunny weather, but he didn't. However, the daughter of former senator Pete Domenici, Nella Domenici got the GOP nomination. Domenici has never run for public office before and the only thing in her favor is that her father used to be a senator, albeit a senator who behaved rather poorly (he had an affair with another senator's daughter and got her pregnant. The result was Nella). Heinrich will be reelected easily. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="NY"> </a> <h2>New York</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/new-york.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.kirstengillibrand.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Kirsten_Gillibrand.gif" class="center" alt="Kirsten Gillibrand" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand" target="_blank"> <br /> Kirsten <br /> Gillibrand </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.nydems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://mikesapraiconeforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Mike_Sapraicone.gif" class="center" alt="Mike Sapraicone" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Sapraicone" target="_blank"> <br /> Mike <br /> Sapraicone </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.nygop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Some New Yorkers haven't forgotten how Gillibrand personally drove then-senator Al Franken from the Senate and haven't forgiven her for that, but New York is a blue state and she should be able to win—unless Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) had challenged her in a primary, but AOC didn't (this time). She is waiting her turn, so Gillibrand is a lock for another term. The Republicans didn't even bother to hold a primary. It is completely futile, so the state party just picked a retired detective and will watch him be slaughtered. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="OH"> </a> <h2>Ohio    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/ohio.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.sherrodbrown.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Sherrod_Brown.gif" class="center" alt="Sherrod Brown" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherrod_Brown" target="_blank"> <br /> Sherrod <br /> Brown </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ohiodems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://berniemoreno.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Bernie_Moreno.gif" class="center" alt="Bernie Moreno" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Moreno" target="_blank"> <br /> Bernie <br /> Moreno </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ohiogop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Ohio is becoming redder every year and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is going to have one tough race here. In 2022, Tim Ryan, who is a pretty good match for the state, was badly beaten by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), a wealthy author, who is a very bad match for the state. Brown is a liberal, but one with strong populist leanings. He laments trade agreements, for example. Despite Ohio's red hue, Brown has won five statewide elections (two for secretary of state and three for the U.S. Senate) and it is always hard to beat a popular incumbent. Three Republicans entered the primary: Secretary of State Frank LaRose, State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, and Bernie Moreno, a wealthy Mercedes-Benz dealer, Trump supported the very Trumpy Moreno and he won the primary. Moreno has enough to worry about being very Trumpy, which tends not to go over with independents. For proof, just ask Sen. Mehmet Oz (R-PA) or Sen. Herschel Walker (R-GA). But a week before the primary, a news item surfaced that an account was opened at Adult Friend Finder in Moreno's name looking for a man-to-man gay sex partner. No one disputes that the account existed, but Moreno claims someone else created it as a prank. Since control of the Senate could depend on this seat, the Democrats have to think carefully about how to play this right. Maybe get some outside group to run ads saying something "positive," like about how it is time for a gay senator. Would Moreno then run counterads showing him kissing the daylights out of his lovely wife? The dogs will get pain in their ears from all the whistles. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="PA"> </a> <h2>Pennsylvania    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/pennsylvania.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.bobcasey.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Bob_Casey.gif" class="center" alt="Bob Casey" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Casey" target="_blank"> <br /> Bob <br /> Casey </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.padems.com" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.davemccormickpa.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/David_McCormick.gif" class="center" alt="David McCormick" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_McCormick" target="_blank"> <br /> David <br /> McCormick </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.pagop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Bob Casey is a moderate, which is a good match for this swing state. His net approval rating is +5, which is OK, but not great. On the other hand, he has won statewide election in Pennsylvania six times as auditor general, treasurer, and senator. Pennsylvania Republicans seem to have trouble putting up decent candidates. They have convinced wealthy businessman David McCormick, who lives in Connecticut, to run again. In 2022, he lost the primary to Mehmet Oz. In the 2022 primary against Oz, McCormick made statements saying that he opposed all abortions except to save the life of the mother. Pennsylvania voters will be treated to clips of those statements roughly every 60 seconds next fall. If 2024 is all about abortion, those clips could be fatal to McCormick. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="RI"> </a> <h2>Rhode Island</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/rhode-island.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.whitehouseforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Sheldon_Whitehouse.gif" class="center" alt="Sheldon Whitehouse" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheldon_Whitehouse" target="_blank"> <br /> Sheldon <br /> Whitehouse </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ridemocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://patriciamorgan.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Patricia_Morgan.gif" class="center" alt="Patricia Morgan" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patricia_Morgan" target="_blank"> <br /> Patricia <br /> Morgan </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ri.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Rhode Island is one of the bluest states in the country, with a grand total of zero Republicans holding office at the state and federal levels. Whitehouse won his last Senate race by 23 points. So, there's not much drama here. Whitehouse will get another term. The Republicans found a candidate in former state House minority leader, Patricia Morgan, but it is completely futile. Maybe she is bothering to run out of a sense of party loyalty, but she will be squashed. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="VA"> </a> <h2>Virginia</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/virginia.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.timkaine.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Tim_Kaine.gif" class="center" alt="Tim Kaine" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Kaine" target="_blank"> <br /> Tim <br /> Kaine </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.vademocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://Hungforva.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Hung_Cao.gif" class="center" alt="Hung Cao" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hung_Cao" target="_blank"> <br /> Hung <br /> Cao </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.virginia.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Tim Kaine has solid approval numbers with a net approval of +9 points. Yes, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) was elected governor in 2021, but that may be a fluke due to the Democrats running a somewhat sleazy candidate. Kaine has won statewide election in Virginia four times and unless the Republicans can pull a rabbit out of a hat and find a sterling candidate. They picked a Navy Veteran, Hung Cao, we very much doubt he is spectacular enough to knock off the popular Kaine. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="WA"> </a> <h2>Washington</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/washington.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.cantwell.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Maria_Cantwell.gif" class="center" alt="Maria Cantwell" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Cantwell" target="_blank"> <br /> Maria <br /> Cantwell </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.wa-democrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://Garciaforwa.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Raul_Garcia.gif" class="center" alt="Raul Garcia" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raul_Garcia" target="_blank"> <br /> Raul <br /> Garcia </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.wsrp.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Maria Cantwell is an outspoken opponent of Donald Trump, and has hewed to a Bernie Sanders-style party line, including a $15 minimum wage, aggressive protections for the environment, and healthcare for all. All of this makes her very popular in Washington, and an overwhelming favorite to be elected to a fifth term. The other Washington senator, Patty Murray (D-WA), won her 2022 contest by 18 points. Cantwell is a shoo-in for another term. For anyone interested, her opponent is Raul Garcia, a Cuban-born doctor, but he is wasting his time. He could use it more wisely seeing patients. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="WI"> </a> <h2>Wisconsin    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/wisconsin.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.tammybaldwin.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Tammy_Baldwin.gif" class="center" alt="Tammy Baldwin" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammy_Baldwin" target="_blank"> <br /> Tammy <br /> Baldwin </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.wisdems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://erichovde.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Eric_Hovde.gif" class="center" alt="Eric Hovde" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Hovde" target="_blank"> <br /> Eric <br /> Hovde </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.wisgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Given Tammy Baldwin's middling approval rating (net +1 approval) and Wisconsin's position as the ultimate swing state, this one could be close. Baldwin is openly lesbian, but that doesn't seem to matter much to the voters. In any event, she is definitely running for a third term. Despite the state's even balance, she won her 2012 race by 5 points and her 2018 race by 10 points, so she is probably the favorite to win again. The Republicans finally have a candidate in wealthy banker Eric Hovde. Unfortunately for him, he lives in a $7 million mansion in Laguna Beach, CA, and that doesn't seem to sit well with Wisconsin voters. Also his bank owns a nursing home it acquired when the owners couldn't pay the mortgage, and it has been sued for mistreating the residents and elder abuse. </td> </tr> </table>  <br /> <br /> <h1>Independent-held seats</h1> <a name="AZ"> </a> <h2>Arizona    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/arizona.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://gallegoforarizona.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Ruben_Gallego.gif" class="center" alt="Ruben Gallego" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruben_Gallego" target="_blank"> <br /> Ruben <br /> Gallego </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.azdem.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://???" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Kari_Lake.gif" class="center" alt="Kari Lake" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/karilake.com" target="_blank"> <br /> Kari <br /> Lake </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.az.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> This one is no longer complicated. Kyrsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat, frustrated Joe Biden on just about everything, then in 2022 became an independent. Nobody knows what she was up to. Democrats are pretty sure she holds regular strategy meetings with Satan, though they are not clear how much she charges the Devil for her assistance. On Jan. 23, 2023, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) announced a Senate run. He got the nomination unchallenged. Kari Lake entered the Republican primary and dispatched Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb with ease. On March 5, Sinema announced that she would not run for reelection setting up a race between a progressive Democrat, Gallego, and a super Trumpist, Lake. We thought this would be the hottest Senate race this cycle, and not just due to the weather in Phoenix in August. We were wrong. If Lake can keep her loss to single digits, she will thank God 100x over (be she won't concede). </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="ME"> </a> <h2>Maine</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc"> Challenger </td><td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/maine.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.angusformaine.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Angus_King.gif" class="center" alt="Angus King" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus_King" target="_blank"> <br /> Angus <br /> King </a> <br /> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus King" target="_blank"> (I) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.costelloforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/David_Costello.gif" class="center" alt="David Costello" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Costello" target="_blank"> <br /> David <br /> Costello </a> <br /> <a href="https://mainedems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://demiforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Demi_Kouzounas.gif" class="center" alt="Demi Kouzounas" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demi_Kouzounas" target="_blank"> <br /> Demi <br /> Kouzounas </a> <br /> <a href="https://mainegop.com" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Angus King is very popular in Maine and, as an independent, can reasonably expect to get both Democratic and Republican votes. Of course, that means he can also reasonably expect to face both a Democratic and Republican challenger, all the way to the bitter end. The Democratic Party will nominate someone, because it's hard to keep some random Joe or Josephine from declaring, but not support that candidate at all. King is not as popular as that other New England independent, Bernie Sanders, but he has establishment support on both sides of the aisle, and is still a sure bet in November. Sure enough, a guy named David Costello got the Democratic nomination. The Republican one went to Demi Kouzounas, who was chair of the Maine Republican Party until she got the hook for doing a lousy job as chair. Her full name is Demitroula Kouzounas. Good thing she will be on the ballot. Running a write-in campaign would have been tough. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="VT"> </a> <h2>Vermont</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc"> Challenger </td><td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/vermont.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.berniesanders.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Bernie_Sanders.gif" class="center" alt="Bernie Sanders" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders" target="_blank"> <br /> Bernie <br /> Sanders </a> <br /> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie Sanders" target="_blank"> (I) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.deploymalloy.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Gerald_Malloy.gif" class="center" alt="Gerald Malloy" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Malloy" target="_blank"> <br /> Gerald <br /> Malloy </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.vtgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Bernie Sanders is the single most popular senator in America, with a remarkable 63% approval rating. While Vermont's meteorological climate is very different from Hawaii's, its political climate is about the same. Bernie is as sure a shoo-in as they come. Despite the pointlessness of it, a Republican, Gerald Malloy, actually filed to run. He spent 22 years in the Army and then 16 years as a defense contractor. In most states, that would be a plus. In Vermont, probably not. The Army made him put this disclaimer on his Website: "Use of candidate鈥檚 military rank, job titles, and photographs in uniform does not imply endorsement by the Department of the Army or the Department of Defense." On the plus side, the URL for his Website is clever, especially given his Army background. It is deploymalloy.com. Bernie will crush him, of course. The Democrats didn't even bother to field a candidate. As chairman of the Senate HELP Committee, he has turned into a regular senator and is no longer the rabble rouser he used to be. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="WV"> </a> <h2>West Virginia</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/west-virginia.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://elliottforvw.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Glenn_Elliott.gif" class="center" alt="Glenn Elliott" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Elliott" target="_blank"> <br /> Glenn <br /> Elliott </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.wvdems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://jimjusticewv.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Jim_Justice.gif" class="center" alt="Jim Justice" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Justice" target="_blank"> <br /> Jim <br /> Justice </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.wvgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> West Virginia went for Donald Trump by a mind-boggling 40 points, which leaves Joe Manchin dead in the water, right? Probably. So he decided not to run for reelection, which means Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) will become Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV) in Jan. 3, 2025. The seat is irretrievably lost to the Democrats now. If Manchin had run, he might have won, but it would have been a struggle against Justice, a coal billionaire and the richest man in West Virginia. The Democrats did find a sacrificial goat, though, Mayor Glenn Elliott of Wheeling, WV. It hardly matters though. </td> </tr> </table>  <br /> <br /> <h1>Republican-held seats</h1> <a name="FL"> </a> <h2>Florida    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/florida.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://rickscottforflorida.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Rick_Scott.gif" class="center" alt="Rick Scott" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Scott" target="_blank"> <br /> Rick <br /> Scott </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.florida.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://debbieforflorida.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Debbie_Mucarsel-Powell.gif" class="center" alt="Debbie Mucarsel-Powell" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debbie_Mucarsel-Powell" target="_blank"> <br /> Debbie <br /> Mucarsel-Powell </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.floridadems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Rick Scott was planning to run for president in 2024. He even drew up a platform. It included things like having Social Security and Medicare expire in 5 years unless Congress voted to keep them. That didn't go over real big, to put it mildly. That was the end of President Scott. Democrats will use that against him, but it probably won't be enough. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) won easily in 2022 against a strong challenger. Former representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell ran for the Democratic nomination and got it. She is a Latina and an immigrant from South America, not a bad demographic to be in when running for office in Florida. It would probably take a huge blue wave to unseat the Senator. That said, with Donald Trump on the GOP ticket, a blue wave is not impossible. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="IN"> </a> <h2>Indiana</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/indiana.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://banksforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Jim_Banks.gif" class="center" alt="Jim Banks" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Banks" target="_blank"> <br /> Jim <br /> Banks </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.indiana.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://valeriemccray.org" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Valerie_McCray.gif" class="center" alt="Valerie McCray" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valerie_McCray" target="_blank"> <br /> Valerie <br /> McCray </a> <br /> <a href="https://indems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) is running for governor, leaving an open seat here. Rep. Jim Banks, one of the Trumpiest Republicans in the House, is the Republican nominee. Valerie McCray, who is Black, is a professional psychologist. She is no doubt a nice lady but she is wasting her time running. Banks will crush her in November. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="MS"> </a> <h2>Mississippi</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/mississippi.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.wickerforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Roger_Wicker.gif" class="center" alt="Roger Wicker" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Wicker" target="_blank"> <br /> Roger <br /> Wicker </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.msgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://typinkins.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Ty_Pinkins.gif" class="center" alt="Ty Pinkins" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ty_Pinkins" target="_blank"> <br /> Ty <br /> Pinkins </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.mississippidemocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> There was a time when Democrats could win elections in Mississippi, even if they nominated a yellow dog, but then the Civil Rights Movement happened. The last time the state sent a Democrat to the Senate was in 1982, when John C. Stennis was elected to the final term of a career that began in 1947. Roger Wicker is going for his fourth term in 2024. He'll get it. The Democrats found a nominee nevertheless. Ty Pinkins is the son of a tractor driver. Ty worked in the cotton fields as a teenager to help his family survive. He tried college but the finances didn't work, so he joined the Army where he served for 21 years, including three tours in Iraq. After he retired, he got a J.D. It is an honorable resume, but he will be crushed anyway by Wicker. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="MO"> </a> <h2>Missouri</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/missouri.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://joshhawley.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Josh_Hawley.gif" class="center" alt="Josh Hawley" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Hawley" target="_blank"> <br /> Josh <br /> Hawley </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.missouri.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://lucaskunce.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Lucas_Kunce.gif" class="center" alt="Lucas Kunce" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_Kunce" target="_blank"> <br /> Lucas <br /> Kunce </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.missouridemocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Josh Hawley has gone full-bore Trumper, no holds barred. Missouri used to be a swing state, but it has since become a red state. The Democrats ran a wealthy beer heiress (Trudy Busch Valentine) for the open seat in 2022 and lost badly against another Trumper, Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO). This time they are trying a 13-year Marine Corps veteran and attorney. On paper he looks good, but Missouri has become a very red state so it would take a huge blue wave to sweep him in. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="NE"> </a> <h2>Nebraska</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/nebraska.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.fischerfornebraska.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Deb_Fischer.gif" class="center" alt="Deb Fischer" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_Fischer" target="_blank"> <br /> Deb <br /> Fischer </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ne.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://osbornforsenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Dan_Osborn.gif" class="center" alt="Dan Osborn" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Osborn" target="_blank"> <br /> Dan <br /> Osborn </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.nebraskademocrats.org" target="_blank"> (I) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Fischer has moderate approval ratings (44% approval vs. 38% disapproval) and is a decent fundraiser. The Democrats' problem is that they need to find a strong opponent. There aren't a lot of them in Nebraska. Maybe what the Democrats should do is dig up William Jennings Bryan and run him. Plan B is to support the independent candidate, Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran and union leader. He is doing quite well in the polls, but unseating an incumbent Republican in Nebraska won't be easy. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="NX"> </a> <h2>Nebraska-special</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/nebraska.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://???" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Pete_Ricketts.gif" class="center" alt="Pete Ricketts" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Ricketts" target="_blank"> <br /> Pete <br /> Ricketts </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ne.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://love4senate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Preston_Love.gif" class="center" alt="Preston Love" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_Love" target="_blank"> <br /> Preston <br /> Love </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.nebraskademocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) was appointed to the seat left behind by Ben Sasse when he left to become president of the University of Florida. Now he has to compete in a special election to hold the seat. He has already won election twice for governor, so that shouldn't be so hard. Nevertheless, somebody actually filed to run as a Democrat, Preston Love, who is Black. He is a community organizer and professor at the University of Nebraska Omaha. It is not clear why he is even bothering, though. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="ND"> </a> <h2>North Dakota</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/north-dakota.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.kevincramer.org" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Kevin_Cramer.gif" class="center" alt="Kevin Cramer" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Cramer" target="_blank"> <br /> Kevin <br /> Cramer </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.ndgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://katrinaforussenate.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Katrina_Christiansen.gif" class="center" alt="Katrina Christiansen" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katrina_Christiansen" target="_blank"> <br /> Katrina <br /> Christiansen </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.demnpl.com" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> North Dakota is an extremely red state now. It used to be more prarie-populist. At recently as 2018 it had a Democratic senator, Heidi Heitkamp, but she lost her reelection bid in 2018. They have a candidate, but we're not sure she is a prarie populist. Katrina Christiansen has a Ph.D. in agricultural engineering and is an expert on biofuels. Maybe while the Democrats have their shovels out for William Jennings Bryan, they could also dig up Quentin Burdick, who won six elections as a Democrat before dying in office. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="TN"> </a> <h2>Tennessee</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/tennessee.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://marshablackburn.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Marsha_Blackburn.gif" class="center" alt="Marsha Blackburn" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsha_Blackburn" target="_blank"> <br /> Marsha <br /> Blackburn </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.tngop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://votegloriajohnson.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Gloria_Johnson.gif" class="center" alt="Gloria Johnson" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gloria_Johnson" target="_blank"> <br /> Gloria <br /> Johnson </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.tndp.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Marsha Blackburn is not one of the smartest senators, but she is one of the Trumpiest. In Tennessee, that is all you need. Democrats do win occasionally in Tennessee. Phil Bredesen (D) served as governor from 2003 to 2011, but he lost to Blackburn in 2018. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Bredesen was their best hope and he wasn't good enough. This time they nominated one of the "Tennessee Three," the three members of the state House members who protested gun violence in violation of House rule. The other two were expelled from the House but she survived by one vote. She also said that Tennessee is less democratic than North Korea. She'll get lots of publicity but will be crushed by Blackburn in November. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="TX"> </a> <h2>Texas    <img src="/evp2024/Art/binoculars.gif" alt="" /> </h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/texas.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.tedcruz.org" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Ted_Cruz.gif" class="center" alt="Ted Cruz" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Cruz" target="_blank"> <br /> Ted <br /> Cruz </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.texasgop.org" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://colinallred.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Colin_Allred.gif" class="center" alt="Colin Allred" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Allred" target="_blank"> <br /> Colin <br /> Allred </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.txdemocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> A lot of Texans don't like Ted Cruz because he thinks first of what is good for Ted Cruz and second what is good for Texas. Well, actually, what is good for Ted Cruz is probably also second and third, but what is good for Texas is a solid fourth. Or maybe fifth. Beto O'Rourke came within 2½ points of beating him in 2018, but Cruz ultimately won. Since then, Cruz probably hasn't become any more popular, in part because everyone knows he is just using the Senate as a stepping stone to run for president some day. Two Democrats, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) (who is Black), and Roland Gutierrez (who is Latino) announced their candidacies. Allred won the primary. Beating Cruz will be tougher, but in a blue wave, against an unpopular senator, he's got a small chance. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="UT"> </a> <h2>Utah</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/utah.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.johncurtis.org" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/John_Curtis.gif" class="center" alt="John Curtis" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Curtis" target="_blank"> <br /> John <br /> Curtis </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.utah.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://carolineforutah.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Caroline_Gleich.gif" class="center" alt="Caroline Gleich" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Gleich" target="_blank"> <br /> Caroline <br /> Gleich </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.utahdemocrats.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> Mitt Romney is quite popular in Utah. If he wanted another term, he could have it easily. But he doesn't want it and is not running for reelection. So Utah will have an open seat race in 2024. The Republicans had a contested primary and the winner was Rep. John Curtis (R-UT). The Democrats nominated a professional mountaineer and environmental activist, Caroline Gleich, who is running to elevate her cause, not to win. After all, she climbed Mt. Everest, so she knows about elevation. This being Utah, Curtis will win the election, of course. </td> </tr> </table>  <a name="WY"> </a> <h2>Wyoming</h2> <table border="1" cellspacing="0" Summary="candidate" bgcolor="white"> <tr> <td class="sbc">Incumbent</td> <td class="sbc">Challenger</td> <td class="sbc">Notes           <a href="/evp2024/Senate/Graphs/wyoming.html">Polls</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.barrassoforwyoming.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/John_Barrasso.gif" class="center" alt="John Barrasso" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Barrasso" target="_blank"> <br /> John <br /> Barrasso </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.wyoming.gop" target="_blank"> (R) </a> </td> <td class="senator" width="112" valign="top"> <a href="https://www.morrowforwyoming.com" target="_blank"> <img src="/evp2024/Images/Scott_Morrow.gif" class="center" alt="Scott Morrow" width="100" height="125" /> </a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Morrow" target="_blank"> <br /> Scott <br /> Morrow </a> <br /> <a href="https://www.wyodems.org" target="_blank"> (D) </a> </td> <td class="notes" valign="top"> And finally, it's the biggest slam dunk of them all for the Republicans. Wyoming is ruby red, and Barasso has won his Senate elections by 55, 54, and 36 points, respectively. Barrasso could beat up a reporter the night before the election, and then get caught in bed with a live boy, a dead girl, and a goat, and he'd still win. The Democrats will have to hunt high and low to see if they can find a party member who lives in Wyoming and is willing to run. It could be tough. Is reader R.L.D. in Sundance interested? Newsflash: A Democrat, Scott Morrow, showed up and filed. Whee! The Democrats have a candidate, not that it matters.