Mysteel：预计节后国内工字钢价格或震荡走高运行-我的钢铁网

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href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a>出厂价格会“锁降不锁涨”的政策，对于成品材价格来说是一个稳定支撑，而各大钢厂均有一定的冬储、春节的销售政策，节中七天价格至少平稳运行。</p> <p>表1：近五年春节前后全国工字钢价格变化</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/01/26/160537.png" style="width: 893px; height: 182px;" /></p> <p>二、供应预计减少</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/01/26/153946.png" style="width: 480px; height: 288px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">图1:2021年全国工字钢产量分布图数据来源：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>我的钢铁网</a></p> <p>全国工字钢产能分布和整体型钢产能分布类似，主要集中在华北、华东地区，如上图，2021年华北和华东工字钢的产量的分布占据主导地位。</p> <p>工字钢供应端自2017年起，产能呈逐步增长态势，但产能利用率呈现下降趋势，产量2021年出现首次下幅，连续四年产量增加。产能出现连年增加，虽然有部分工字钢产线退出，但是新增产能大于退出、淘汰产能，总体维持产能连续五年增加，但考虑到型钢产线，一般是一条型钢线轧制多个品种，例如工字钢和槽钢换轧、工字钢和<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010705-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>H型钢</a>换轧，因此产能虽然增加，但实际分配到工字钢品种上是有一定比例的。此外，因为技术升级改造，单位时间工字钢平均产量也有了一定提升，这也是常态化限产后，在有限的时间内，效能弥补了生产天数的不足。</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/01/26/155954.png" style="width: 554px; height: 270px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">图2:近5年工字钢产量、产能变化数据来源：我的钢铁网</p> <p></p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>不完全统计，全国工字钢生产厂家共有25家，轧钢厂占到12家。从产量上讲，轧钢厂的产量比重也占到60%以上；但因为冬奥会的管控以及春节期间放假停产，轧钢厂大部分在1月25日前后就开始停产，集中复产日期或在2月7日左右，因此供应会大幅减少。</p> <p>据Mysteel调研唐山地区2022年重点时段空气质量保障工作分两阶段执行，第一阶段为一般管控期（1月30日-2月20日），应急管控期（2月4日-2月20日、3月4日-3月13日），主要集中于1月-2月下旬以及三月中上旬，按照应急管控计划对生产的影响，预计停产天数在16天，预计影响唐山型钢总产量84.55万吨；预估自1月25日至2月7日，按照全国调坯轧钢厂放假以及限产影响型钢产量将会达到134万吨。</p> <p>三、成品库存预计累库</p> <p>表2:2019-2022年全国工角槽钢企成品库存统计</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/01/26/155758.png" style="width: 828px; height: 203px;" /></p> <p>历年来看钢企成品库存节后回归多数是增加的，考虑2022年冬奥会原因，京津冀地区管控措施加压，型钢供应在一个较低水平，节前工角槽库存总量破百万吨，库存压力加大，节后归来一方面是供应较低，另一方面下游需求回升，尤其是工角槽在节后归来一般会有个需求的快速释放，因此去库速度节后2周或较快，库存整体在2月份或呈现下降趋势。</p> <p>表3：全国27城工角槽社库统计</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/01/26/160658.png" style="width: 705px; height: 244px;" /></p> <p>截止1月20日，全国工角槽社库总计70.86万吨，月比增8.41%，预计春节前，社库仍会继续累库。</p> <p>四、工字钢消费结构和趋势</p> <p>工字钢目前来说产品分类上看，国标产品占比在20%，非标占比80%。工字型钢不论是普通型还是轻型的，由于截面尺寸均相对较高、较窄，故对截面两个主轴的惯性矩相差较大，故仅能直接用于在其腹板平面内受弯的构件或将其组成格构式受力构件。对轴心受压构件或在垂直于腹板平面还有弯曲的构件均不宜采用，这就使其在应用范围上有着很大的局限。工字钢广泛地应用于建筑或其他金属结构。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>工字钢在桥梁和公路隧道方面是有专门的的应用的，目前也不可替代性，就目前而言，至少每年200万以上应用到这方面，常用规格主要是，14#、16#、18#、20#、22#、25#、36#、40#、45#等，最主要还是16-22#，部分规格在特殊应用场景中与钢板等做焊接等，可以说是不可替代性。钢构方面，钢构总体产量维持一个增幅，但是实际上钢构各品种应用体量占比中，工字钢并不大，因此钢构后期增幅对于工字钢消费量影响并不大。最主要还是要关注桥梁和公路隧道的建设和投资，但是一般这样工程持续时间较长，虽然每公里隧道需要的工字钢大概再500-1000吨左右（根据隧道直径大小），但是货到工地消耗较慢，工程建设不如房地产建筑或者钢结构建筑那样快速。此外工字钢在支撑强度和焊接性能方面、稳定方面都不如H型钢，此后极可能被H型钢替代，目前没有被替代还是由于工字钢的经济性。</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/01/26/154927.png" style="width: 554px; height: 277px;" /></p> <p>图3：中国工字钢消费结构占比数据来源：我的钢铁网</p> <p>总体来看，未来工字钢的产量随着粗钢产量而变化，总体变化不会太大，消费激增和大幅减量可能性不大。工字钢进出口体量均不是很大，每年进口大约在5万吨，出口30-50万吨。供需整体维持较为平衡状态，供应端随时可以释放产能来满足下游需求的增量，全年受制于需求的释放，因此市场也是买方市场。</p> <p>综合预计，工字钢品种价格因供应区域性比较明显，成本在价格影响因素中占据主要地位，因此要关注原料钢坯价格的波动，同时考虑到节后回归受到限产影响，区域间供需不平衡性更加明显，近四年成品库存累积或是最高，但考虑下游需求释放速度逐步加快，节后价格或有震荡走高的可能。</p> <p></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：陈业亮 021-26094230 </br> 资讯监督：王美 021-26093608 </br> 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