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data-loaded="true">6</a></li></ul><p class="text-sm text-muted mb-1">Article modifié le <time datetime="2025-01-29"> 29/01/2025 </time></p><div class="content whole type-article" ><div class="block_1" data-ucode="yT140089_0"><i class="anchor" id="yT140089_0"></i><p> Après six ans de travail auquel ont participé quelque deux mille cinq cents scientifiques du monde entier, le <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Fondé en 1988 par le Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement (PNUE) et l’Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM), le Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) – en anglais, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) – est un organisme international qui regroupe 195 pays membres. Sa principale activité est d’élaborer des rapport..." title="Article : GIEC (Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat)" href="/encyclopedie/giec/">GIEC</a>, Groupement intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (en anglais IPCC pour Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), a remis son quatrième rapport d'évaluation en 2007. Cet organisme, dont le rôle est « d'évaluer l'information scientifique, technique et socio-économique pertinente pour comprendre le risque du changement climatique d'origine humaine », s'est aussi vu attribuer, cette même année, le prix Nobel de la paix, conjointement avec l'ancien vice-président américain Al Gore. </p><p>Références pour le travail des scientifiques et les décisions des gouvernements du monde entier, les rapports d’évaluation du GIEC compilent les travaux de trois groupes de travail. Pour le quatrième rapport, les conclusions de ces groupes de travail ont été présentées lors de trois conférences échelonnées au cours de l'année 2007.</p><p>Le groupe I, chargé de l'évaluation du changement climatique et de l'appréciation du rôle qu'y joue l'homme, a remis ses conclusions à Paris (29 janvier-3 février). Il confirme l'accélération du réchauffement sous l'impact des activités humaines. D'ici à 2100, l'augmentation de la température terrestre moyenne serait comprise entre 1,8 <sup>0</sup>C et 4 <sup>0</sup>C. Ces augmentations pourraient être plus élevées dans les régions polaires (jusqu'à 6,4 <sup>0</sup>C au lieu de 5,1 <sup>0</sup>C prévus en 2001). Les précipitations seraient plus importantes sous les hautes latitudes et se réduiraient dans les zones subtropicales (— 20 p. 100 d'ici à 2100). Il faut également s'attendre à une augmentation de la fréquence des canicules et vagues de chaleur en zone tempérée, avec des périodes de sécheresse plus longues et plus intenses dans les régions tropicales et subtropicales.</p><p>Le groupe II, en charge de la prospective des « conséquences, adaptations et vulnérabilités », a présenté ses conclusions à Bruxelles (2-5 avril), délivrant les lourdes inquiétudes provoquées par les risques avérés concernant la montée de l'océan mondial (3 millimètres par an), la multiplication des <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Les inondations peuvent se définir comme l'envahissement par l'eau douce ou salée de lieux terrestres habituellement émergés. Plusieurs causes et des processus complexes aboutissent à ce phénomène, dont l'ampleur peut conduire à une catastrophe majeure. On considère que les inondations sont responsables de plus de 60 p. 100 du total des morts provoqués par l'ensemble des catastrop..." title="Article : INONDATIONS" href="/encyclopedie/inondations/">inondations</a>, les risques de sécheresse accrus dans les régions déjà touchées par les pénuries en eau, l'instabilité des sols en montagne, la fonte du permafrost, les modifications des aires de répartition et des dates de floraison de la <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Dans les divers pays, le langage a toujours distingué certains types de végétation. On n'a pas besoin de connaître le nom des plantes pour parler de forêt, de lande, de maquis, de savane, de steppe, de pelouse. Étudier la végétation revient à décrire le « paysage végétal ».. On confond souvent flore et végétation, réalités pourtant très différentes pour le botaniste : la..." title="Article : VÉGÉTATION" href="/encyclopedie/vegetation/">végétation</a>, l'extension de maladies comme le paludisme.</p><p> Le groupe III, chargé de proposer des mesures de limitation d'émission des gaz à effet de <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Dans son sens le plus large, une serre désigne un dispositif établi pour modifier à moindres frais l'action des facteurs naturels et l'adapter au mieux aux besoins des plantes . Par sa présence, la serre crée, à partir du milieu naturel, un milieu semi-artificiel permettant de cultiver des végétaux qui, sans elle, ne pousseraient pas ou ne monteraient pas à fleurs et à fruits , ou pous..." title="Article : SERRE" href="/encyclopedie/serre/">serre</a> (GES) et d'atténuation des changements climatiques, s'est réuni à Bangkok (30 avril-3 mai). Donnant aux décideurs les différentes options de réduction des GES, il en a précisé les coûts et suggéré les conditions de mise en œuvre ainsi que les bénéfices attendus des décisions possibles dans différents secteurs des activités humaines. Les mesures prises (modification de l'usage des sols, protection des <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Le terme « écosystème » désigne un groupe d'êtres vivants – parfois désigné sous le nom de biocénose (animaux, végétaux et microorganismes) – et de composantes physiques et chimiques – parfois regroupées sous le terme de biotope . Il correspond à une vision intégrative de la nature, centrée sur le concept d’interaction : toute composante de l’écosystème, vi..." title="Article : ÉCOSYSTÈMES" href="/encyclopedie/ecosystemes/">écosystèmes</a> et des infrastructures) sont notoirement insuffisantes, alors que l'inertie de la machinerie climatique devrait imposer l'adoption immédiate de mesures telles que la protection des zones industrielles exposées à la montée des eaux et la reforestation de millions d'hectares.</p><p>La synthèse de tous ces travaux a été présentée à Valence (Espagne), du 12 au 16 novembre 2007. Sont proposées des évaluations plus fines sur les différents aspects régionaux du changement climatique. À partir du constat de l'inégalité de la menace – les habitants des pays en développement et des pays émergents seront les plus exposés –, l'accent est mis sur l'impérieuse nécessité d'accélérer les efforts de recherche et les investissements coordonnés internationalement, afin notamment de prévenir la montée inexorable de l'océan mondial ainsi<a href="javascript:" title="Lire la suite" class="read-more ms-1">[...]</a></p></div><div class="clearfix"></div></div><ul class="pagination justify-content-center public-links "><li class="page-item active"><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 1" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">1</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 2" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">2</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" 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class="text-center mb-3 d-print-none"><a class="d-inline-flex flex-row justify-content-center align-items-center btn btn-light btn-large text-start" title="Carte mentale : GIEC (4e RAPPORT D'ÉVALUATION DU)" href="/carte-mentale/rapport-d-evaluation-du-g-i-e-c-4e/"><i class="fa fa-sitemap fa-rotate-270 me-1 fs-1 text-universalis"></i><p class="m-0"><strong class="fs-4">Carte mentale</strong><br /> Élargissez votre recherche dans Universalis </p></a></div></section> <section class="mb-5 article-classification" data-print-label="la classification" data-print-target=".article-classification"> <i class="anchor" id="yT140089_ROOT_LINES"></i> <p class="title-minor">Classification</p> <nav aria-label="Classification 1"> <ol class="breadcrumb"> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Sciences humaines et sociales" href="/classification/sciences-humaines-et-sociales/"> Sciences humaines et sociales </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Politique" href="/classification/sciences-humaines-et-sociales/politique/"> Politique </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Relations internationales" href="/classification/sciences-humaines-et-sociales/politique/relations-internationales/"> Relations internationales </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item active" data-dc-subject="Coopération internationale"> <a title="Classification : Coopération internationale" href="/classification/sciences-humaines-et-sociales/politique/relations-internationales/cooperation-internationale/"> Coopération internationale </a> </li> </ol> </nav> <nav aria-label="Classification 2"> <ol class="breadcrumb"> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Environnement" href="/classification/environnement/"> Environnement </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item active" data-dc-subject="Protection et gestion de l'environnement"> <a title="Classification : Protection et gestion de l'environnement" href="/classification/environnement/protection-et-gestion-de-l-environnement/"> Protection et gestion de l'environnement </a> </li> </ol> </nav> <nav aria-label="Classification 3"> <ol class="breadcrumb"> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Environnement" href="/classification/environnement/"> Environnement </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item active" data-dc-subject="Environnement: droit et politique"> <a title="Classification : Environnement: droit et politique" href="/classification/environnement/environnement-droit-et-politique/"> Environnement: droit et politique </a> </li> </ol> </nav> <nav aria-label="Classification 4"> <ol class="breadcrumb"> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Environnement" href="/classification/environnement/"> Environnement </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Dégradation de l'environnement" href="/classification/environnement/degradation-de-l-environnement/"> Dégradation de l'environnement </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Changements de l'environnement global" href="/classification/environnement/degradation-de-l-environnement/changements-de-l-environnement-global/"> Changements de l'environnement global </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item active" data-dc-subject="Effet de serre et réchauffement climatique"> <a title="Classification : Effet de serre et réchauffement climatique" href="/classification/environnement/degradation-de-l-environnement/changements-de-l-environnement-global/effet-de-serre-et-rechauffement-climatique/"> Effet de serre et réchauffement climatique </a> </li> </ol> </nav> </section> <section class="mb-5 d-print-none article-indexes learn-more"> <i class="anchor" id="yT140089_INDEXES"></i> <p class="title-minor">Voir aussi</p> <ul class="list-inline list-inline-bullet"> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : TEMPÉRATURE, météorologie et climatologie" href="/index/temperature-meteorologie-et-climatologie/"> <span class="rg">TEMPÉRATURE, </span><em class="it">météorologie et climatologie</em> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CLIMATS" href="/index/climats/"> <span class="rg">CLIMATS</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE" href="/index/changement-climatique/"> <span class="rg">CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CLIMATIQUES VARIATIONS" href="/index/variations-climatiques/"> <span class="rg">CLIMATIQUES </span><span class="pc">VARIATIONS</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : RÉCHAUFFEMENT CLIMATIQUE" href="/index/rechauffement-climatique/"> <span class="rg">RÉCHAUFFEMENT CLIMATIQUE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : GAZ À EFFET DE SERRE" href="/index/gaz-a-effet-de-serre/"> <span class="rg">GAZ À EFFET DE SERRE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : EFFET DE SERRE" href="/index/effet-de-serre/"> <span class="rg">EFFET DE SERRE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : NIVEAU DES MERS" href="/index/niveau-des-mers/"> <span class="rg">NIVEAU DES MERS</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : ANTHROPISATION" href="/index/anthropisation/"> <span class="rg">ANTHROPISATION</span> </a> </li> </ul> </section> </div> <div class="col-lg-4 col-xl-3 px-0 d-none d-lg-block side-bar position-relative"> <div id="ad_rightslot" class="pub-container text-center"> <div class="pub-placeholder"></div> </div> <div id="ad_rightslot2" class="pub-container text-center"> <div class="pub-placeholder"></div> </div> <a class="wrapper cta" href="/abonnement" title="Abonnez-vous à Universalis pour 1 euro" data-matomo-category="CTA" data-matomo-name="Clic" data-matomo-value="Col right"> <img src="/typo3temp/assets/_processed_/b/6/csm_abo-3_74169bae4d.webp" 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