国泰君安期货：基本面驱动仍存，沪铜阶段性或维持多头走势-我的钢铁网

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id="text"> <p>最近，<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>经历调整后再度回升。宏观方面，特朗普关税政策反复，但市场对欧洲经济未来预期较为乐观。基本面上，亏损使得冶炼厂减停产概率加大，同时消费旺季逐步来临，<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>材企业存在较大的刚性补库需求，预计国内社会库存面临持续回落的可能。</p> <p><strong>欧洲经济预期乐观</strong></p> <p>美国2月新增非农就业人口略低于预期，失业率意外上升至三个月高位，不过美国2月服务业扩张速度加快，给市场带来了一定安抚。美联储主席鲍威尔表示美国经济状态仍良好，尽管不确定性增加，美联储仍无需急于降息，等待特朗普政策更明确。但是，特朗普关税政策反复无常，包括计划对铜加征25%关税和特朗普对美国经济没有排除衰退的可能性的言论等，加剧了风险资产价格的波动。欧盟委员会主席提出的总计约8000亿欧元的“重新武装欧洲”计划获得欧洲理事会同意，市场预期军费和基础设施支出将成为推动欧洲经济复苏的新引擎。</p> <p><strong>供需格局依旧偏多</strong></p> <p><a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tongjingkuang/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜精矿</a>现货紧张加剧，未来冶炼厂面临减产可能。本周铜精矿现货TC为-15.83美元／吨，冶炼厂亏损为2800元／吨左右，亏损幅度较大。印尼政府已解除Freeport铜精矿出口禁令，部分铜精矿库存将供应国际市场，预计铜精矿TC可能阶段性止跌企稳。但是考虑到冶炼行业持续亏损，全球某些冶炼厂可能出现减产或者停产行为，进而影响精铜供应。</p> <p>铜价走势偏强，限制铜材企业补库，但是生产旺季预期依然较强。民用、基建等建筑工程类中低压类电线电缆订单低迷，高压电缆及新能源发电类订单表现相对较好，电线电缆周度开工率上升，但依然弱于去年同期。精铜杆周度开工率小幅下滑，高铜价抑制了新增订单的释放。铜价上升抑制<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tongbandai/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜板带</a>箔需求，企业开工率承压。制冷企业3—4月排产增加，传统旺季带动<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tongguan/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜管</a>需求回升，铜管企业开工率上升。我们认为3—4月是国内的生产旺季，在消费端有望修复的背景下，铜材企业刚性补库量可能较大。综合供需，当前国内社会库存开始出现回落，预计后期依然存在下降空间。</p> <p>整体而言，市场对欧洲经济未来预期较为乐观，且国内利好政策预期依然较强，基本面上，消费旺季预期依然较强，同时全球铜冶炼面临减产可能，这些都有利于铜价保持阶段性多头走势。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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