Asia Times - Southeast Asia-China: Threats, opportunities

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</td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="10"> </td> <td width="407" align="left" valign="top"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td><font class="subhead"><strong class="head"> China </strong></font> </td> </tr> </table> <br> <table width="392" border="0" align="left" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top" width="392"><font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><font color="#000000" size="3"><strong>Southeast Asia-China: Threats, opportunities</strong></font> <br>By Eddie Leung <br><br>PETALING JAYA, Malaysia - For decades after the World War II, China was seen as an exporter of communism among Southeast Asian countries. Diplomatic relations were strained as Southeast Asian governments suppressed communist insurgents, many of which were ethnic Chinese. Formal economic relations between China and Southeast Asian countries were almost non-existent. <br><br>Since global communist revolution subsided and China started economic reforms, the situation has undergone a staggering change. Chinese businessmen and tourists have flooded Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. <br><br>This flourishing trade relationship is best exemplified by the seventh World Chinese Entrepreneurs Convention (WCEC) held in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, from Sunday to Wednesday this week, in which almost 1,000 representatives from China participated, accounting for nearly one-third of the total number of participants. <br><br>While the host was keen on lavishing praises on the rapid development of the Chinese economy, below the surface the feelings toward China are much more ambivalent. Once again, China is feared - this time not for exporting communism, but rather deflation. With its cheap labor costs, increasing productivity, and mastery of modern technology, China is fast becoming the factory of the world. As manufacturing industries in neighboring countries are "hollowing out", even ethnic Chinese businessmen based in Southeast Asian countries have felt the heat. <br><br>Indeed, this ambivalent attitude was expressed in Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's opening address. Without mentioning the less-than-pleasant memories of the 1960s, Mahathir delivered a flattering account of China's relationship with Southeast Asian countries: "We are very near to China, but China never conquered us. We are not afraid of China becoming a big military power and gobbling us up, because this is not the tradition of China." <br><br>However, Mahathir added that China at the moment is certainly a threat to the economies of Southeast Asian countries, as it has a cheap but highly skilled workforce and could therefore attract more foreign investment. <br><br>Malaysian and other Southeast Asian businessmen are of course attracted to China, but is the picture as rosy as it is often painted? Many who have first-hand experience in investing in China have the other side of the story. <br><br>The flop of the Singapore's pet project in Suzhou, even with the blessing of both Beijing and Singapore governments, is widely discussed in Southeast Asian business circles. William Cheng Heng Jem (the Lion Group), a Malaysian steel and motor-tires magnate, is known to have suffered a huge loss in China in 1997. <br><br>In an interview with Asia Times Online, David Chua, deputy secretary general of the Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia and one of the organizers of WCEC, hinted at some of the difficulties overseas businessmen are facing in China: "Business practices in China are somewhat different. Some business norms such as mutual trust and keeping promises we have taken for granted may not be so in China. We did not have adequate knowledge in this area in the past. <br><br>"There is also a difference between policies of the central and local governments regarding taxation and charges. Foreign investors should be very careful in establishing mutual understanding with the local government before they proceed. <br><br>"Thirdly, in China, there are still many national enterprises. As private enterprises of smaller size, we have difficulties in competing with them," Chua said. <br><br>Unlike their US counterparts, Southeast Asian governments and businessmen are restrained in their criticisms of China. Complaints of all sorts have been made in private, but governments and business circles are keen on maintaining a harmonious relationship with China. Even tycoon William Cheng is returning to Nanjing for motorcycle manufacturing despite the huge losses he has suffered. <br><br>This is because at the end of the day the Chinese market is too large to be ignored. "The capacity of the Chinese market in absorbing product is amazing. We don't have that kind of market here," said one Malaysian delegate in the convention. <br><br>Said Chua: "The rise of the Chinese economy is a trend we have to accept. Unless China is dumping its products in other markets or using unfair trade measures ... we have no right to interfere in China's own business." <br><br>"Adjustment" is the approach Chua and other Malaysian businessmen follow. "To survive this trend, we have [to] adjust or else we'll be eliminated," he said. <br><br>Adjustment, however, is a painful process. Hong Kong, a classic case of price-differential leveling, has suffered a more than 60 percent depreciation of real-estate prices and persistent deflation for more than 36 months, while across the border, mainland cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou are enjoying annual growth of about 10 percent. <br><br>"Hong Kong is a case we always bear in mind," Chua said. <br><br>The pain of adjustment can also be translated in political pressure. Commentators in the United States argue that China's currency, the yuan, is deliberately undervalued to facilitate Chinese exports. <br><br>Indeed, the yuan exchange rate was debated in the WCEC seminar. One of the seminar speakers, Dr Lin See Yan, former Bank Negara deputy governor, said the exchange-rate issue is not on China's priority list. The Chinese government has made a wise decision in maintaining a stable exchange rate and focusing on other more urgent matters. <br><br>Chua echoed Lin's opinion. "There is no universal consensus of what constitutes an appropriate exchange rate. There are pros and cons on every level. The task of the Chinese government is to find a balance point. How a government chooses its economic strategy is a matter of national sovereignty and should not be interfered [with] by foreign comments. I trust the Beijing leaders will make a wise decision on [their] own," he said. <br><br>To be fair, while the Chinese market is huge, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Free Trade Area is something China cannot afford to ignore either. If Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, with its 200 million population, begin economic and social reform, the impact could be substantial. <br><br>Southeast Asian governments and business circles are pinning their hopes on the maturing of the Chinese economy, when production costs rise. As Mahathir said in his opening speech, "This is only a transition period, and over time production costs in China [will] rise and it will become less attractive to investors. <br><br>"But more than that, as the Chinese people get richer, they are going to need a lot of things. They are going to need products from other countries, and China will become a big market. And we should look at what we can sell to China." <br><br>The "wealth effect" of the Chinese economy has already benefited the tourism industry of the Southeast Asian countries. It will benefit other sectors of Southeast Asian economies as time goes by. <br><br>But more important, history has shown that no products from a single country can dominate the market forever. "In our youth, British brand names such as Austin and Rover were the obvious choice for cars; in the '70s, we had Mercedes-Benz from Germany; in the '80s, we saw Toyota and Honda from Japan. It may now be China's turn, but this won't last forever either," said Mew Jin Seng, vice president of the Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Kuala Lumpur and Selangor. <br><br>Will China be an exception to the rule? We will have to wait and see. <br><br>(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20031219075705/mailto:content@atimes.com"><font color="#0000ff">content@atimes.com</font></a> for information on our sales and syndication policies.)</font> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top" width="392"> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td width="105" align="middle" valign="top"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="44" align="middle" valign="center"><font class="time"><strong> Aug 2, 2003 </strong></font> </td> </tr> </table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="75"><img height="75" src="/web/20031219075705im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/1pix.gif" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="middle" valign="center"><a href="javascript:atprint();"><img height="26" src="/web/20031219075705im_/http://www.atimes.com/images/f_images/print.gif" width="91" border="0"></a></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="5" align="middle" valign="center"><img 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