腾讯，或将出手了_要闻频道

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style="color: #0e478c;text-decoration: underline;">涉企侵权信息举报专区</a> </div> <div class="ybnm"> <i> 关注证券之星官方微博： </i> <a href="//weibo.com/stock666666"> <img src="//i.ssimg.cn/images/public/news/Snipaste_2020-04-13_13-19-55.png" alt=""> </a>  <a href="//user.qzone.qq.com/1651671413"> <img src="//i.ssimg.cn/images/public/news/Snipaste_2020-04-13_13-19-42.png" alt=""> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div>   <div class="w clearfix" id="Wapper"> <div class="content clearfix"> <div class="clear"></div> <div id="Detail"> <div class="box" id="container-box"> <div class="article"> <div class="article_content"> <p>昨日晚间，市场一则关于腾讯境外发债的消息，一度引发了市场不小的讨论。不少粉丝朋友对此也是比较关注，所以今天的文章，我们就先来点评几句，并再聊聊当下我们对于腾讯的一些看法。</p><p><strong>以下为主要内容：</strong></p><p><strong>1.首先是对腾讯境外发债的观点</strong></p><p>信息来源是彭博：据知情人士称，腾讯控股正在筹划最早在未来几周内于境外发行债券融资，目前就发行美元债和离岸人民币债与一些投行洽谈。不过发债具体的期限和规模目前尚未最终确定。</p><p>事实上，关于腾讯境外发债的事情其实并不稀奇，在过去，腾讯也曾多次发行过美元债券，助力其出海的发展以及公司回购等需要。</p><p>这里可能会有小伙伴有疑问，像腾讯这么大的一家公司，现金流还不错，为何还要发债融资呢？</p><p>实际上，腾讯发行债券的动机并不难理解。</p><p>首先，这是腾讯加强与国际资本市场联系的战略举措，向市场传递了公司对未来业务发展的信心。</p><p>其次，考虑到资金的空间错配，腾讯需要进行资金调动。</p><p>具体来说，腾讯在国内业务中赚取的是人民币，但海外扩张需要使用美元。而腾讯的大部分资金储备在国内，大规模的货币兑换需要经过审批。因此，发行美元债券成为了一个更方便的选择。</p><p>此外，腾讯发行债券也是为满足其公司股票回购的需求。</p><p>腾讯的回购资金可能部分来源于其海外业务的收益，这些收益通常是以美元形式存在的。为了将这些美元兑换成港币进行回购，汇率的波动对腾讯回购的实际成本和效果有着直接的影响。</p><p>所以，腾讯海外发债也只是一个企业经营过程中的正常现象。</p><p>近些年，腾讯的海外业务占比日益提升(海外游戏收入占比由2019年的15%提升至2023年30%)，全球化扩展也是十分明显。</p><p>到时候便宜借债，再用海外公司转到的钱来慢慢还，其实还是美滋滋的。大致逻辑其实芒格早年提到过，是不是很类似？</p><p>“伯克希尔的投资原则：我们就像刺猬，只会一招，就是寻找利率低于3%的浮存金，并把它投向能产生13%回报的企业”。</p><p><strong>另外关于腾讯游戏海外布局及收入预测等，见下图：</strong></p><p align="center"><img src="https://i.ssimg.cn/szzylive/sns/post/20241127/b98943d3f1e44413b3bcf1217aba5080.png" alt="" title="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;">(腾讯外海收购与投资情况)</p><p align="center"><img src="https://i.ssimg.cn/szzylive/sns/post/20241127/f383db24f9114bf09749ef79fb537f7c.png" alt="" title="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;">(腾讯海外游戏IP储备丰富)</p><p align="center"><img src="https://i.ssimg.cn/szzylive/sns/post/20241127/63886bcf82c84ddd9c3e6b63b40e898e.png" alt="" title="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;">(腾讯游戏管线)</p><p align="center"><img src="https://i.ssimg.cn/szzylive/sns/post/20241127/53db0f3cf30a4757899977564e58b071.png" alt="" title="" /></p><p style="text-align: center;">(腾讯游戏收入预测)</p><p><strong>2.另外再来聊聊对于腾讯的看法</strong></p><p>这段时间以来，不少互联网公司的股价也出现了较为剧烈的波动，这里再来主要聊聊我们对于腾讯当下的看法。</p><p><strong>对于腾讯，研究院此前在腾讯的逻辑依旧在逐步印证一文中曾提到，我们依然认可腾讯的长期的竞争力，以及商业模式依然能打。</strong></p><p><strong>“腾讯管理层总体上对自己的认知是很到位的，务实且卓有成效，而且一直能够积极落地去做。这两年的大环境逆境，反而让腾讯的竞争力变得愈发鲜明。”而后腾讯持续亮眼的财报，也进一步印证了我们的想法。</strong></p><p><strong>估值方面，我们在腾讯跌破400，三季报怎么看？，中提及腾讯全年2000亿左右的利润级别，对应上目前港股的市值，不扣资产也才17倍。</strong></p><p><strong>虽然我们很难精确预测腾讯接下来十年里的收入增速、利润等等。但在竞争环境没变化之前，我们倾向于认为腾讯的竞争优势可以维持，腾讯大概率能够跑赢通胀，考虑回购股息等，中期有大个位数到接近双位数的增速，其实也还是值得期待一下的。</strong></p><p style="text-align: center;">PS:本文仅为观点数据分享，不做投资建议。</p> </div> </div> <div class="tags"> <div class="ybnm"> <div class='ylng'> <a href='http://weibo.com/stock666666' class='share_stock' target="_blank">证券之星</a> <a href="http://weibo.com/stock666666" class="share_sina" title="证券之星官方微博"></a> <a id='Weixin' onmouseover="this.className='hover'" onmouseout="this.className=''" href="http://info.stockstar.com/hb/mobquote/" style="text-decoration:none" 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