中州期货：玉米回调空间有限-我的钢铁网

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<p>自9月末以来，玉米期货价格出现止跌反弹，玉米期货2501合约价格从此前的2150元/吨快速上涨至2247元/吨，短短几天时间上涨接近100点。我们评估本轮玉米价格出现快速反弹的主要原因在于宏观层面因素。9月24日，央行行长潘功胜、国家金融监管总局局长李云泽、证监会主席吴清出席国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会，介绍金融支持经济高质量发展有关情况。会上多项重磅金融政策出炉：降准0.5个百分点、降息20个基点、创设股票回购、增持再贷款、降低存量房贷利率和统一房贷最低首付比例等。政策发布之后，市场反应非常积极，当日国内股票市场、商品市场都出现大幅上涨。我们认为，短期玉米市场受宏观因素影响会比较大，因此建议投资者适当降低敞口头寸，将风险控制在合理范围之内。</p> <p><strong>新季玉米陆续上市</strong></p> <p>玉米属于季产年销的品种，价格波动呈现出明显的季节性特征。一般来说，每年四季度玉米价格处于相对低点，每年二、三季度玉米价格处于相对高点。自9月下旬以来，华北、东北新季玉米陆续上市，农户面对当前玉米价格并未表现出惜售情绪。截至10月6日，锦州港玉米周度集港量约为12万吨，处于近几年同期高位水平；山东深加工厂门前剩余到车数量约为606辆/天，同样处于近几年同期高位。上述数据可以侧面说明，当前农户环节并未表现出惜售情绪。</p> <p>我们认为基于季节性角度考虑，玉米供应或陆续增加。如果贸易商和终端用粮企业依然按照中性策略进行采购不建库存，未来一段时间玉米价格或继续承压。那么贸易商和终端用粮企业心态有无改善？我们认为截至9月30日当周，贸易商心态是有改善的。</p> <p>根据9月30日锦州港玉米现货和期货价格测算，玉米2501合约基差约为-107元/吨，处于历史同期低位。需要说明的是，9月中旬，玉米现货价格还是高于玉米期货的，玉米2501合约基差约为10元/吨。由于玉米基差变化，我们评估9月末贸易商购销心态是有明显改善。我们认为，节后会有更多中大型贸易商通过期货卖出套保，然后积极采购现货，进而带动玉米现货市场购销转好。</p> <p><strong>小麦饲用价值不明显</strong></p> <p>自5月下旬新季小麦上市以来，国产小麦价格持续在2450~2520元/吨区间波动。我们分析玉米价格走势，认为小麦依然是不容忽视的因素之一。从中长期来看，我们认为玉米价格将围绕小麦价格波动。因此，小麦价格走势在很大程度上决定了未来一段时间玉米价格走势。为稳定小麦市场预期、保障种粮农民利益，我国充分发挥储备粮“丰则贵籴、歉则贱粜”调节收储作用，今年首次在小麦主产区启动新季小麦增储收购。截至9月30日，中储粮在小麦主产区累计启动增储收购库点436个，进一步稳定小麦市场价格，保障种粮农民利益。分地区来看：北京分公司68个、河南分公司147个、山东分公司52个、江苏分公司58个、安徽分公司67个、湖北分公司16个、上海分公司2个、西安分公司6个、新疆分公司20个。</p> <p>根据小麦产需及政策性因素考虑，我们评估未来一段时间小麦价格将在2500元/吨左右波动。按照饲用价值粗略估算，相当于玉米价格2430元/吨。参考机构统计数据，当前华北玉米价格约为2200元/吨，华北小麦价格约为2480元/吨。综上可知，短期华北小麦价格是没有饲用价值的，但中长期玉米价格也会受到小麦价格压制。</p> <p><strong>结论</strong></p> <p>综合考虑玉米价格季节性特征、小麦价格、贸易商心态及宏观因素，我们认为四季度玉米价格将维持低位震荡，继续往下空间较为有限。基于政策性因素及赔率角度考虑，我们倾向于逢低做多为主。当然，基于当前玉米基差考虑，我们优先推荐买入玉米基差策略。（作者单位：中州期货）</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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