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The cover depicts then-president Dilma Rousseff.]] From mid-'''2014''' onward, '''[[Brazil]]''' experienced a severe '''[[financial crisis#Wider economic crisis|economic crisis]]'''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/michel-temer-signs-security-decree-stem-rio-violence-180216183747559.html|title=Michel Temer signs security decree to stem Rio violence|website=www.aljazeera.com|access-date=2018-02-16}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Barua |first1=Akrur |title=Brazil: Yearning for the good times |url=http://dupress.com/articles/global-economic-outlook-q2-2016-brazil/ |series=Global Economic Outlook, Q2 2016 |publisher=Deloitte University Press |access-date=21 May 2016 |date=29 April 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160823114946/http://dupress.com/articles/global-economic-outlook-q2-2016-brazil/ |archive-date=23 August 2016 |url-status=dead }}</ref> The country's [[gross domestic product|Gross Domestic Product]] (GDP) fell by 3.5% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016, after which a small economic recovery began. That recovery continued until 2020, when the [[COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil|COVID-19 pandemic]] began to impact the economy again. The economic crisis occurred alongside a political crisis that resulted in the [[Impeachment of Dilma Rousseff|impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff]]. These events combined caused mass popular dissatisfaction with the political system. The cause of the crisis was the aforementioned political crisis, as well as the [[Commodity price shocks#Second half of 2014|2014 commodity price shock]], which negatively affected Brazil's exports and reduced the entrance of foreign capital into the economy. However, the most important cause was internal, which is associated with economic measures that didn't achieve the expected results. Adopted in 2011, these measures are known as the ''{{ill|nova matriz econômica|pt|Nova matriz econômica|vertical-align=sup}}'' ("new economic matrix", in a free translation). During the economic crisis, high unemployment rates were reported throughout the country, and there was widespread uncertainty regarding Brazil's economic future following a series of political scandals.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/pib-positivo-e-saida-tecnica-da-recessao-mas-recuperacao-e-incerta-entenda.ghtml|title=PIB positivo é 'saída técnica' da recessão, mas recuperação é incerta; entenda|date=2017-06-01|author=Darlan Alvarenga|access-date=5 June 2017|work=G1}}</ref> In the first quarter of 2017, Brazil's GDP rose by 1%. This was the first GDP increase to occur in eight consecutive quarters. Finance Minister [[Henrique Meirelles]] announced that Brazil had "emerged from the greatest crisis of the century".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/08/c_136110450.htm |title=Brazil GDP falls by 3.6 percent in 2016 |author=Mu Xuequan |date=March 8, 2017}}</ref> However, the rise in GDP marked only the end of a technical recession, not the end of the crisis. The [[recession]] was the second most severe in the country's [[economic history of Brazil|history]],<ref>{{cite web|url=https://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,com-revisao-ultima-recessao-deixa-de-ser-a-maior-da-historia,70002628638|title=Com revisão, última recessão deixa de ser a maior da história |work=Estadão|access-date=9 January 2020|date=1 December 2018|author=Vinicius Neder}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/estagnacao-recessao-ou-depressao-pib-confirma-retomada-mais-fraca-das-ultimas-decadas-23704758|title=Estagnação, recessão ou depressão? PIB confirma retomada mais fraca das últimas décadas |work=O Globo|access-date=9 January 2020|date=30 May 2019|author=Gabriel Martins}}</ref><ref name="book" /> and was followed by the slowest recovery.<ref name="book" /> == Context == === Economic === [[File:Brazilian bonds.webp|thumb|300px|Brazilian bonds had an [[Inverted yield curve]] in August 2014 when the 1 year bond got above the 10 year bond {{legend-line|#009739 solid 3px|10 year bond}} {{legend-line|#FEDD00 solid 3px|5 year bond}} {{legend-line|#012169 solid 3px|1 year bond}} ]] [[File:Brazil inflation 1996-2022.webp|thumb|300px|Brazil inflation 1996-2022]] Brazil's economy is largely dependent on the export of [[commodities]], particularly iron ore, petroleum and soy. From the late 1990s till 2012, prices for these export commodities rose significantly (partly because of increasing demand from [[China]]), resulting in about two decades of economic growth. As a result of the [[Great Recession]], Brazil's GDP dropped sharply and unemployment rose.<ref name="agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br">{{Cite web|url=https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2016-05/crise-internacional-e-problemas-internos-sao-causas-do-desemprego-no-brasil|title=Crise internacional e problemas internos são causas do desemprego no Brasil|date=2016-05-01|website=Agência Brasil|access-date=2020-03-31}}</ref> During [[Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva]]'s left-wing presidency from 2003 to 2010, the government redistributed wealth through welfare programs and raised the [[minimum wage]] in order to increase consumption.<ref name=":2">{{cite journal|title=Entenda a crise econômica|url=http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2016-05/entenda-crise-economica|journal=Agência Brasil |date=15 May 2016 |author=Giselle Garcia |via=[[Agência Brasil]]}}</ref> In response to critics of Lula's [[Socialist economics|socialist economic]] stance, his successor, Dilma Rousseff (president during the crisis), introduced [[Macroeconomics|macroeconomic]] [[tax exemption]]s and [[Subsidy|subsidies]]. These policies are widely acknowledged as a major factor in the 2014–16 economic crisis.<ref name="book" /> === Political === The economic crisis was followed and intensified by a political crisis. In 2014, a series of corruption scandals uncovered by [[Operation Car Wash]] engulfed many influential politicians. In the presidential election of the same year, President [[Dilma Rousseff]] was re-elected to a second term, defeating the [[Brazilian Social Democracy Party|PSDB]] candidate [[Aécio Neves]] by a narrow margin.<ref>{{cite web|title=Na disputa mais acirrada da história, Dilma é reeleita presidente do Brasil - 26/10/2014 - Poder|url=http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2014/10/1537894-dilma-e-reeleita-presidente-do-brasil.shtml|work=Folha de S.Paulo|access-date=2019-06-09}}</ref> The result was not recognized by a section of the opposition and provoked popular discontent.<ref>{{cite web|title=Crise econômica e corrupção marcarão a nova presidência|url=https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2014/10/26/politica/1414356634_215134.html|work=EL PAÍS|date=2014-10-27|access-date=2019-06-09|first=Antonio Jiménez|last=Barca}}</ref> Due to the disputed legitimacy of the election, the Operation Car Wash investigation, and the economic crisis; dissatisfaction with the government became widespread. By 2015, Rousseff's approval rating had plummeted to 8% according to a [[Datafolha]] survey.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/08/17/brazils-corruption-scandal-economy-drive-rousseffs-ratings-to-record-low/|title=Brazil's corruption scandal, economy drive Rousseff's ratings to record low|website=Pew Research Center|language=en-US|access-date=2020-03-31}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|url=http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2015/08/06/avaliacao_dilma_agosto_2015.pdf|title=Avaliaçãdo DO Governo Dilma Rousseff|publisher=Datafolha Instituto|year=2015}}</ref> == Causes ==  === Errors in macroeconomic policy === [[File:Brazil's fall (The Economist).jpg|thumb|Cover of ''[[The Economist]]'' in January 2016 ("Brazil's fall: Dilma Rousseff and the disastrous year ahead"), highlighting the negative aspect of the then-president|upright=0.925]] {{Main article|New economic matrix}} According to [[Gustavo Franco]], President of the Central Bank during the [[Fernando Henrique Cardoso government|FHC government]], the main cause of the crisis was internal and related to "local macroeconomic measures that went wrong."<ref>{{Cite web|title=A crise brasileira não vem de fora, ela foi autoinfligida|url=https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2015/03/25/economia/1427322429_883162.html|work=El País|date=27 March 2015|author=Carla Jiménez|author2=Heloísa Mendonça|accessdate=6 February 2018}}</ref> A 2017 academic study on the subject arrived at the following conclusion regarding the origin of the crisis:<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal|last=Filho|first=Fernando de Holanda Barbosa|title=A crise econômica de 2014/2017|journal=Estudos Avançados|doi=10.1590/s0103-40142017.31890006|volume=31|issue=89|year=2017|pages=51–60 |issn=0103-4014|eissn=1806-9592|publisher=[[University of São Paulo]]|doi-access=free}}</ref> {{Blockquote|text=The exhaustion of the NEM [new economic matrix] due to the loss of the government's financial capacity reduced several investments in the Brazilian economy from 2015 onward, with the sharp reduction in Petrobras' investment being a notable example. The ensuing fiscal sustainability crisis raised country risk, long-term interest rates, and uncertainty, substantially reducing consumption and investment in 2015 and 2016. The reestablishment of prices and the necessary monetary policy to bring inflation back to target also contributed to the recession, mainly due to the loss of credibility of the Central Bank. [...]|author={{Cite journal|last=Filho|first=Fernando de Holanda Barbosa|title=A crise econômica de 2014/2017|url=https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-40142017000100051|journal=Estudos Avançados|accessdate=6 February 2018|volume=31|issue=89|year=2017}}}} [[File:Entrevistas Diversas (14879045080).jpg|thumb|left|[[Guido Mantega]], Minister of Finance during the first Dilma government. In July 2012, Mantega admitted for the first time that the government practiced a new "macroeconomic matrix".<ref>{{Cite web|title=Mantega indica novo modelo econômico|url=https://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,mantega-indica-novo-modelo-economico-imp-,896017|work=Estadão|location=Brasília|author=Beatriz Abreu|date=5 July 2012|accessdate=11 December 2019}}</ref>]] Previously, the state had played a crucial role in expanding the domestic market through consumer incentives, such as raising the minimum wage, income transfers, and credit expansion. However, by the end of the [[Lula government]], there was a growing perception that this strategy would be unsustainable.{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=11}} On May 26, 2011, an article published in ''[[Folha de S.Paulo]]'' titled "an agreement for the Brazilian industry" reaffirmed the importance of that economic policy of the Lula government but criticized the shrinking share of the national industry in GDP and the substitution of domestic production with imported industrial products. The article was signed, among others, by [[Paulo Skaf]], president of the [[Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo]] (FIESP), who years later would request and support [[Impeachment of Dilma Rousseff|Dilma's impeachment]].{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=57}}<ref>{{Cite web|title=Um acordo pela indústria brasileira|url=https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/fz2605201107.htm|work=Folha de S.Paulo|accessdate=11 December 2019|date=25 May 2011|author=Paulo Skaf|author2=Artur Henrique|author3=Paulo Pereira da Silva}}</ref> Dilma, an economics graduate from an industrialist school, agreed with the demands. Therefore, the new economic matrix was a set of measures to benefit the industrial sector, aiming to reduce the costs of national companies and increase competitiveness against foreign competition. However, the industry did not react. Industrial production, which had grown by 2.7% in 2010, declined by 0.9% and 3.7% in the following two years, damaging government revenue and, consequently, public investments.{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=58}} [[File:CAE - Comissão de Assuntos Econômicos (16989641502).jpg|thumb|Joaquim Levy, Minister responsible for fiscal adjustment, in March 2015]] In an attempt to reverse the deterioration in public accounts due to falling revenue, a fiscal adjustment was implemented in 2014, which included highly recessive policies (i.e., aimed at reducing expenses and increasing taxes). These policies mainly involved cutting public expenses and investments, such as cuts to the [[Growth Acceleration Program]] (PAC). The adjustment continued throughout 2015. In that year, there was a sharp reduction in administered prices. (See section [[#Anticrisis measures|Anticrisis measures]].) These measures further deepened the crisis because, according to Carvalho, there was a decrease in public investments.{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=97–98}} Additionally, the sharp adjustment of administered prices and the significant depreciation of the currency<ref>{{Cite web|last1=Treviz|first1=Karina|last2=G1|first2=o|url=http://g1.globo.com/economia/mercados/noticia/2015/12/dolar-termina-ultima-sessao-do-ano-em-alta.html|title=Dólar sobe 48% em 2015, maior alta anual em quase 13 anos|date=2015-12-30|accessdate=2021-10-12|website=Mercados|language=pt-br|last3=Paulo|first3=em São}}</ref> led to soaring inflation, reaching over 10%. This increase, in turn, caused the [[Selic Rate]] to rise successively until reaching 14.25% per year.{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=101}}{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=98}} The fiscal adjustment was not successful even in its main objective, which was to achieve a surplus in public accounts, as the recession in which the country found itself reduced government revenues.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Costas|first=Ruth|title=Como se chegou à pior recessão desde os anos 90?|url=https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/noticias/2015/12/151201_pib_terceirotri2015_ru|work=BBC|accessdate=10 October 2021|date=1 December 2015}}</ref> === Commodities Devaluation === {{Main article|Commodity price shocks#Second half of 2014}} {| class="wikitable" style="text-align: right; margin-left: 10px; font-size: 85%; float: right;" |colspan="2"|'''Average annual growth of<br />commodity prices'''<ref>IMF (Primary Commodities Price Index). Data extracted from the book "A Valsa Brasileira" (see bibliography)</ref> |- !Period !Change<br /><small>(% per year)</small> |- style="text-align: center;" |1999-2002 |10.3 |- style="text-align: center;" |2003-2005 |19.1 |- style="text-align: center;" |2006-2010 |10.5 |- style="text-align: center;" |2011-2014 |-7.0 |- style="text-align: center;" |2015-2016 |-6.5 |} An external cause identified was the slowdown of the Chinese economy, Brazil's largest trading partner.<ref name=":2" /> This slowdown led to a sharp drop in commodity prices, which are the basis of Brazilian exports. As a result, Brazil's trade surplus plummeted and some exporting companies, such as Usiminas and Vale, suffered heavy losses. According to Roberto Dumas, a professor at Insper, the government made a strategic mistake during the commodity supercycle by stimulating consumption instead of prioritizing industrialization and improving productive capacity.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Estadão |url=https://infograficos.estadao.com.br/public/economia/por-que-o-brasil-parou/ |title=Por que o Brasil Parou? |access-date=2021-10-12 |website=Estadão }}</ref> According to Steven Tobin from the International Labour Organization (ILO) Research Department, the decrease in external demand, especially from China, combined with the fall in commodity prices in the second half of 2014, were factors that contributed to the crisis. However, Tobin also stated that this unfavorable external scenario revealed structural weaknesses in the country, such as low productivity.<ref>{{Cite news|title=Crise internacional e problemas internos são causas do desemprego no Brasil|url=https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2016-05/crise-internacional-e-problemas-internos-sao-causas-do-desemprego-no-brasil|newspaper=Agência Brasil|date=1 May 2016|author=Mariana Branco|access-date=30 June 2017}}</ref> Between June and December 2014, the commodity price index published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) experienced a cumulative decline of 29.3%, which continued to increase until it was interrupted in January 2016.{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=95}} In 2015, ''The Economist'' magazine also stated that the immediate causes of the crisis were external,<ref name="causas-imediatas">{{cite web|title=Causas imediatas da crise econômica brasileira são externas, diz The Economist|url=https://noticias.r7.com/economia/causas-imediatas-da-crise-economica-brasileira-sao-externas-diz-the-economist-30102015|work=R7|access-date=30 June 2017|date=30 October 2015}}</ref> and that the decline in commodity prices partly explained the crisis.<ref>{{cite web|title=Capa da 'Economist' alerta para queda do Brasil e prevê desastre em 2016|url=https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/capa-da-economist-alerta-para-queda-do-brasil-preve-desastre-em-2016-18384376|work=O Globo|access-date=30 June 2017|date=30 December 2015}}</ref> The publication also argued that then-president Dilma Rousseff could have made better use of the commodity boom of the 2000s to reduce the bloated state, which consumed 36% of GDP in taxes. Instead, the government chose to guarantee subsidized loans and costly tax incentives for favored industries.<ref name="causas-imediatas" /> Silvia Matos, a researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV), concluded that external factors were responsible for 30% of the crisis. {{Blockquote|Silvia Matos shows [...] through a comparative analysis that, although other economies have also experienced a growth reduction in recent years, the Brazilian deceleration was more intense. This occurred even when compared to Latin American countries, which form a natural control group for performance comparisons. Then, she confirms this diagnosis through an econometric analysis of panel data with a sample of 14 emerging countries. In fact, the results indicate that only 30% of the Brazilian deceleration can be explained by external factors. Based on this, Silvia Matos concludes that factors specific to our economy are the most relevant in explaining the worsening performance of the Brazilian economy|author={{Cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=MjY8DwAAQBAJ|title=A Crise de Crescimento do Brasil|author=FGV|date=4 April 2017|publisher=Elsevier Brasil|isbn=9788535266382|location=Brazil}}}} === Political Crisis === {{Main article|Dilma Rousseff government|Operation Car Wash|Impeachment of Dilma Rousseff|Michel Temer government}} {{Further information|2013 protests in Brazil|2014 Brazilian general election|2015–2016 protests in Brazil}} In the international context of major protests following the [[2008 financial crisis]], such as the [[Arab Spring]] in the Arab world, ''[[Occupy Wall Street]]'' in the United States, and ''[[2011–2012 Spanish protests|Los Indignados]]'' in Spain,<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/portuguese/noticias/2013/06/130623_protestos_pressreview_bg.shtml|title=Protestos globais crescem com perda de fé na política e no Estado|publisher=[[BBC Brasil]]|date=23 June 2013|access-date=25 June 2013}}</ref> Brazil experienced major protests in 2013, the largest since the demonstrations for the impeachment of Fernando Collor in 1992.<ref name="folha-imp">{{cite web|url=https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2013/06/1296834-protesto-em-sao-paulo-e-o-maior-desde-manifestacao-contra-collor.shtml|title=Protesto em São Paulo é o maior desde manifestação contra Collor|publisher=Folha de S.Paulo|date=17 June 2013|access-date=18 June 2013}}</ref> The protesters initially challenged increases in public transportation fares but later questioned the hosting of FIFA mega-events ([[2013 FIFA Confederations Cup|Confederations Cup]] and [[2014 FIFA World Cup|World Cup]])<ref>{{Cite news|date=17 June 2013|title=Contra a Fifa e serviço de ônibus, 12 mil manifestantes fecham a praça Sete em Belo Horizonte|url=https://noticias.r7.com/minas-gerais/contra-a-fifa-e-servico-de-onibus-12-mil-manifestantes-fecham-a-praca-sete-em-belo-horizonte-17062013|newspaper=R7.com}}</ref> and political corruption. In response, the federal government announced measures to try to address the protesters' demands<ref name="UOL-DILMA/21-JUN">{{cite web|url=https://noticias.uol.com.br/cotidiano/ultimas-noticias/2013/06/21/em-pronunciamento-dilma-diz-que-chamara-prefeitos-e-governadores-para-discutir-mobilidade-urbana.htm|title=Dilma diz que receberá líderes de protestos e propõe pacto para melhorar transporte, educação e saúde|publisher=UOL|date=21 June 2013}}</ref> and the National Congress of Brazil passed a series of concessions, known as the "positive agenda."<ref>{{cite web|url=https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2013/08/como-ficou-agenda-positiva.html|title=Como ficou a 'agenda positiva'|date=29 August 2013|website=globo.com}}</ref> [[File:Posse Dilma 2015 cropped.jpg|thumb|left|[[Dilma Rousseff]] at her [[Second inauguration of Dilma Rousseff|inauguration as president]] in 2015, alongside her vice president, [[Michel Temer]]]] The following year, in 2014, the [[Operation Car Wash]] investigation began, revealing a vast corruption scheme involving the political class and parties. The re-election of [[Dilma Rousseff]] a few months later exacerbated the political crisis. Running for a second term as a candidate for the [[Workers' Party (Brazil)|Workers' Party]], Dilma won the [[2014 Brazilian general election|presidential election that year]], defeating the candidate from the [[Brazilian Social Democracy Party|Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB)]], [[Aécio Neves]], in the most fiercely contested presidential race in the country's history at that time.<ref>{{cite web|title=Na disputa mais acirrada da história, Dilma é reeleita presidente do Brasil|url=https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2014/10/1537894-dilma-e-reeleita-presidente-do-brasil.shtml|access-date=17 June 2017|publisher=Folha de S.Paulo|date=26 October 2014}}</ref> The election was also marked by turmoil and controversies, mainly due to Operation Car Wash.<ref>{{cite web|title=NY Times: brasileiros lamentam campanha eleitoral feia|url=https://www.dci.com.br/politica/ny-times-brasileiros-lamentam-campanha-eleitoral-feia-id423083.html|access-date=17 June 2017|date=26 October 2014|work=The New York Times}}{{dead link|date=May 2023}}</ref> In this context of political crisis, the Congress began to vote on measures that could generate more expenses for the government. These were called "bills bombs" (''pautas-bomba''). If the president vetoed any of these bills, the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Eduardo Cunha, would entertain an impeachment request against her. These bills were used as instruments of blackmail. The proposed spending increases voted by Congress occurred at the same time the government intended to make cuts to achieve the fiscal target for the year. In a scenario of an economy in crisis, this hindered the rebalancing of public accounts by increasing state expenses and making the economic adjustments proposed by Dilma unviable.{{Sfn|Bernoulli|2021|p=135}}<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://m.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2015/08/1664711-saiba-o-que-sao-as-pautas-bomba-nas-maos-do-congresso-contra-o-governo.shtml |title=Saiba o que são as 'pautas-bomba' nas mãos do Congresso contra o governo - 05/08/2015 - Mercado - Folha de S.Paulo |access-date=2021-10-12 |website=m.folha.uol.com.br}}</ref>  In December 2015, after the PT voted for the impeachment of Eduardo Cunha{{Sfn|Bernoulli|2021|p=135}} (who was involved in corruption scandals), he accepted an impeachment request against Dilma for alleged [[crime of responsibility]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Eduardo Cunha accepts impeachment request against Dilma Rousseff|url=https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,eduardo-cunha-aceita-pedido-de-impeachment-contra-dilma-rousseff,10000003662|accessdate=June 17, 2017|work=Estadão|date=December 2, 2015|author=Gadelha|author2=Cardoso|author3=Sorg|author4=Carvalho}}</ref> On May 12, 2016, the [[Federal Senate of Brazil|Federal Senate]] removed her from the presidency for 180 days. Immediately, her vice-president [[Michel Temer]] assumed the position [[acting president|temporarily]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Dilma will be removed from office for up to 180 days; Temer assumes presidency|author=Mariana Jungmann|url=https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2016-05/dilma-sera-afastada-do-cargo-por-ate-180-dias-temer-assume-presidencia|accessdate=June 17, 2017|work=Agência Brasil|date=May 12, 2016}}</ref> Even though he was acting president but behaving as if he were the definitive president,<ref>{{cite web |title=Temer: "I don't behave as if I were interim, I behave as if I were definitive" |url=https://www.em.com.br/app/noticia/politica/2016/06/21/interna_politica,775311/em-entrevista-temer-diz-que-se-comporta-como-presidente-definitivo.shtml |newspaper=Estado de Minas |accessdate=May 21, 2019 |date=June 21, 2016}}</ref> Temer established his government plan and made "stopping the free fall in economic activity" a priority in his first speech as president.<ref>{{cite web |title=Read the full transcript of Temer's first speech as acting president |url=https://g1.globo.com/politica/processo-de-impeachment-de-dilma/noticia/2016/05/veja-integra-do-primeiro-discurso-de-temer-como-presidente-em-exercicio.html |work=G1 |date=13 May 2016 |accessdate=May 7, 2020}}{{Quote2|Brazil, my friends, is currently going through its worst economic crisis. There are 11 million unemployed, double-digit inflation, a deficit of nearly R$100 billion, recession, and also a serious chaotic situation in public health. Our biggest challenge is to stop the free fall in economic activity, which has led to increased unemployment and the loss of well-being of the population.|author=Michel Temer}}</ref> However, early in his government, Temer became involved in controversies due to his ministers who were being investigated in the scope of Operation Car Wash, as well as himself.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://zh.clicrbs.com.br/rs/noticias/politica/noticia/2016/06/lava-jato-leia-a-integra-da-delacao-premiada-de-sergio-machado-que-cita-michel-temer-6003084.html |title=Lava-Jato: read the full text of Sérgio Machado's plea bargain that mentions Michel Temer |date=June 15, 2016 |accessdate=June 17, 2017 |work=ClicRBS}}</ref> The scandals affected the progress of the government's proposed reforms aimed at economic recovery.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://exame.com.br/brasil/acusacao-contra-temer-pode-ter-impacto-direto-nas-reformas/ |title=Accusations against Temer may have a direct impact on reforms |date=May 17, 2017 |accessdate=June 17, 2017}}</ref> Not only did they affect the progress itself, but they also required Temer to allocate many resources to maintain his allied base cohesive. The total amount of funds released in 2017 for parliamentary amendments (a legal mechanism used for political negotiations) increased from 959 million to 1.5 billion reais just in June, the month following the JBS scandal.{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=138}} All the corruption scandals involving the Temer government, combined with the unpopular reform proposals, caused Temer's approval rating, according to CNI/[[Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics|Ibope]] polls, to drop to 3 percent in September 2017, even lower than Dilma's.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2017-09/popularidade-de-temer-tem-3-de-aprovacao-diz-pesquisa-cniibope |title=Temer's popularity has 3% approval, says CNI/Ibope poll |accessdate=November 19, 2017 |work=Agência Brasil|date=28 September 2017 }}</ref> Therefore, Dilma's impeachment and the beginning of the Temer government were not able to halt the political crisis or the economic crisis. The persistence of the political crisis continued to hinder economic recovery because the scandals affect the markets, especially those subject to short-term speculative movements, such as the stock market and the foreign exchange market, which are the first to react.<ref name=":1">{{cite journal |url=https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/opiniao/artigos/a-crise-politica-e-seus-impactos-sobre-a-economia-dw1dfff5yzml8jcfcbtiuezzq/ |title=The political crisis and its impact on the economy |date=June 25, 2017 |accessdate=January 11, 2018 |journal=Gazeta do Povo |author=Marcelo Curado}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2017/05/1885077-entenda-o-impacto-da-crise-no-governo-na-economia.shtml |title=Understanding the impact of the crisis on the economy |date=May 18, 2017 |accessdate=January 11, 2018 |newspaper=Folha de S.Paulo |location=São Paulo}}</ref> Although Temer survived, his image was damaged. Several [[Protests against Michel Temer's government|popular protests]] questioned whether he could remain in office.<ref>{{cite web|title=Group protests against Temer in Brasília|url=https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,grupo-faz-protesto-contra-presidente-em-brasilia,70001790465|date=May 17, 2017|accessdate=June 17, 2017}}</ref> === Economic Impacts of Operation Car Wash === Operation Car Wash mainly affected the construction and oil sectors.{{Sfn|Carvalho|2018|p=98}} A study by the [[Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies|Dieese]], published in March 2021, indicated that about 4.4 million jobs were lost in the country from 2014 to 2017 as a result of Operation Car Wash. Of these, 1.1 million were in the construction sector.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.poder360.com.br/lava-jato/lava-jato-acabou-com-44-milhoes-de-empregos-aponta-dieese/ |title=Operation Car Wash ended 4.4 million jobs, according to Dieese |date=March 16, 2021 |accessdate=October 12, 2021 |website=Poder360}}</ref> During the same period, the sector recorded a negative balance between hirings and dismissals of 991,734 formal positions.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://valor.globo.com/opiniao/coluna/consequencias-economicas-da-operacao-lava-jato.ghtml |title=Economic Consequences of Operation Car Wash |accessdate=October 12, 2021 |website=Valor Econômico |date=28 August 2019 |url-access=subscription}}</ref> According to a study published in 2018 by the [[Independent Fiscal Institution]], since the beginning of 2014, the construction industry experienced 14 quarters of negative results, with a negative impact of 0.9 percentage points per quarter. The study also pointed out that the sector was a limiting factor to the recovery trajectory of industrial GDP and economic activity in aggregate terms.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.conjur.com.br/dl/ifi-senado-construcao-civil-lava-jato.pdf |title=RAF - Fiscal Monitoring Report|date=June 11, 2018 |accessdate=October 11, 2021}}</ref> Some consultancies estimated that the economic contraction caused by Operation Car Wash would be around 1% to 1.5% of the GDP per year.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.istoedinheiro.com.br/lava-jato-esta-corroendo-o-pib-e-dai/ |title=Operation Car Wash is corroding the GDP. So what? |date=June 2, 2017 |accessdate=January 11, 2018 |newspaper=Istoé Dinheiro |publisher=Editora três |author=Luís Artur Nogueira}}</ref> The direct and indirect effects of Operation Car Wash on the country's economy may have caused, according to a projection by the consulting firm Go Associados for 2015, a contraction of more than 140 billion reais in the country's economy.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2015/08/impacto-da-lava-jato-no-pib-pode-passar-de-r-140-bilhoes-diz-estudo.html |title=Impact of Operation Car Wash on GDP could exceed 140 billion reais, says study |date=August 18, 2015 |accessdate=January 11, 2018 |work=G1 |author=Luís Artur Nogueira}}</ref> According to a study by consultancy Tendências, the recession could be three times smaller without the impacts of the operation on the economy.<ref>{{cite web |last=Paulo |first=Ruth CostasDa BBC Brasil em São |url=http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2015/12/sem-lava-jato-recessao-poderia-ser-3-vezes-menor-dizem-consultorias.html |title=Without Operation Car Wash, recession could be 3 times smaller, say consultancies |date=December 2, 2015 |accessdate=October 12, 2021 |website=Economia }}</ref> == Consequences == === Unemployment === [[File:Evolução do desemprego 2012-2017.png|thumb|355px|The unemployment rate from 2012 to 2017. Each vertical line corresponds to a month.<ref name="desemprego">{{cite web|url=https://br.advfn.com/indicadores/pnad|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171106064226/https://br.advfn.com/indicadores/pnad|url-status=dead|archive-date=2017-11-06|title=Desemprego {{!}} Pnad {{!}} IBGE|date=2017-11-06|access-date=2017-11-26}}</ref>]] Before the recession, Brazil's [[unemployment]] rate hovered around 6.8% for most of 2014, but began increasing in February 2015, resulting in a 2015 average of 8.5%. The economy lost more than 1.5 million jobs throughout 2015, fueling public discontent against the political establishment and the political leadership of the [[Workers' Party (Brazil)|Worker's Party]] and President [[Dilma Rousseff]].<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-15/brazil-s-unemployment-jumps-in-2015-adding-to-rousseff-s-woes|title=Brazil's unemployment jumps in 2015, adding to Rousseff's woes|newspaper=Bloomberg|date=15 March 2016 }}</ref> The unemployment rate continued to rise throughout 2016 to finish the year at 12.0%, with 12.3 million people unemployed and an estimated 2.8 million private-sector jobs cut over the preceding two years.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-employment-idUSKBN15F1LE|title=Brazil's jobless rate ends 2016 at 12 percent with 12.3 million unemployed|publisher=Reuters|date=1 February 2017}}</ref> Young people were affected most by the worsening job market. While the overall unemployment rate was 12.7% in the first quarter of 2019, the rate in people from 14 to 17 years was 44.5% and 27.3% for people from 18 to 24 years. Experts expressed concern for the unintended economic and social repercussions for Brazil's younger population, as the economic crisis decreased social security contributions and depreciated [[human capital]] (caused by the decrease in the technical capacity of future workers).<ref>{{cite web |title=Desemprego deixa herança maldita aos jovens e cicatrizes no país |url=https://exame.abril.com.br/economia/desemprego-deixa-heranca-maldita-aos-jovens-e-cicatrizes-no-pais/ |work=Exame|date=28 June 2019|author=Ligia Tuon|access-date=18 November 2019}}</ref> === Recession === [[File:Crescimento do PIB do Brasil entre 2010 e 2016.png|355px|thumb|Change in GDP from 2010 to 2016 in Brazil.<ref name="oglobo">{{cite web|title=Economia encolhe 3,6% em 2016 e país tem pior recessão da história|date=7 March 2017 |url=https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/economia-encolhe-36-em-2016-pais-tem-pior-recessao-da-historia-21022917|access-date=6 June 2017}}</ref> Growth slowed significantly in 2014 which was followed by two consecutive drops.<br /><br />(Note: The values for 2015 and 2016 were later revised to 3,5% and 3,3%, respectively.)]] At the end of the second quarter of 2014, the country was in a technical [[recession]]. According to some Brazilian economists, a technical recession is negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. It is different from an actual recession, in which the situation of the country depreciates significantly.<ref>{{cite web |title=Entenda o que a recessão técnica significa para a economia|url=https://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,entenda-o-que-a-recessao-tecnica-significa-para-a-economia,384664|work=Estadão|author=Alessandra Corrêa|date=9 June 2009}}</ref> Finance Minister, [[Guido Mantega]], lessened the economic result and, in comparison to Europe, declared that: {{blockquote|[In Brazil] we're talking about two trimesters [of negative GDP growth], and we know that the economy is in motion. Recession is when there are rising unemployment and decreasing income. Here we have the opposite.|Guido Mantega, Finance Minister<ref>{{cite web|url=http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2014/08/entenda-o-que-e-recessao-tecnica.html|work=G1|date=29 August 2014|access-date=7 December 2016|title=Entenda o que é recessão técnica|location=São Paulo}}</ref>|title=|source=}} Regardless of Mantega's statements, specialists had already spotted signs that a strong recession was well underway, citing the technical recession and later, the small growth of 0.5% at the end of 2014. The expectations were confirmed in the next year when the economy shrunk by 3.5%. In 2016, there was another sharp decrease of 3.3%.<ref>{{cite web|title=Como o Brasil entrou (e pode sair) da maior recessão da história|url=http://exame.abril.com.br/economia/como-o-brasil-entrou-e-pode-sair-da-maior-recessao-da-historia/|access-date=24 June 2017|work=EXAME|date=7 March 2017|author=João Pedro Caleiro}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Como o Brasil entrou, sozinho, na pior crise da história|work=Época|access-date= 24 June 2017|author1=Graziele Oliveira |author2=Marcos Coronato|url=http://epoca.globo.com/ideias/noticia/2016/04/como-o-brasil-entrou-sozinho-na-pior-crise-da-historia.html|date=4 April 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|date=3 July 2017|title=Brasil vive a pior recessão da história|url=http://g1.globo.com/jornal-hoje/noticia/2017/03/brasil-vive-pior-recessao-da-historia.html|access-date=2017-06-01|work = Jornal Hoje|author1=Renata Capucci |author2=Larissa Castro}}</ref> In the first trimester of 2017, the GDP rose for the first time after eight consecutive trimesters of negative growth.<ref name="jn">{{cite journal|date=2017-06-01|title=PIB do primeiro trimestre cresce 1% após oito quedas seguidas|language=pt|trans-title=First quarter GDP grows 1% after eight straight falls|url=http://g1.globo.com/jornal-nacional/noticia/2017/06/pib-do-primeiro-trimestre-cresce-1-apos-oito-quedas-seguidas.html|journal=Jornal Nacional|access-date= 24 June 2017}}</ref> The recession caused a [[fiscal crisis]] and an increasing [[budget deficit]] which, according to Bloomberg, was "the largest-ever primary budget gap ... as a two-year [[economic recession]] sapped tax collection while expenses grew further."<ref> {{cite news|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/brazil-posts-largest-budget-deficit-for-february-ever |title=Brazil posts largest budget deficit for February ever |newspaper=Bloomberg |date=30 March 2016 |access-date=18 May 2016 }} </ref> The government deficit reached 5.8 billion [[Brazilian real|reais]] (US$1.7 billion) in the first three months of 2016, the widest reported since December 2001. The two-year fiscal deterioration can be explained by the decrease in government revenue from taxes as a result of the recession, while government expenses have been growing constantly.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-29/brazil-records-worst-ever-first-quarter-budget-deficit|title=Brazil records worst-ever first quarter budget deficit|newspaper=Bloomberg|date=29 April 2016 |access-date=18 May 2016}}</ref> === Increase in economic inequality === [[File:Gini da Renda do Trabalho nos Domicílios per Capita.png|355px|thumb|Evolution of the [[Gini coefficient]] in Brazil from 2012 to 2019. Source: Ibre/FGV<ref name="IBRE" />]] A 2019 study by the [[Instituto Brasileiro de Economia]] (IBRE), part of [[Fundação Getúlio Vargas]] (FGV), obtained by the magazine [[Valor Econômico]], showed that the [[Gini coefficient]], which measures the [[economic inequality]] in society from 0 to 1, had increased year after year since 2015 and reached its peak in March 2019. In seven years, the accumulated wealth of the top 10% rose by 8.5%, while that of the 40% poorest dropped 14%. The research showed that people with lower incomes suffered the effects of the crisis more intensely and recovered from the crisis slower.<ref>{{cite web|title=Desigualdade de renda no Brasil atinge o maior patamar já registrado, diz FGV/IBRE|url=https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2019/05/21/desigualdade-de-renda-no-brasil-atinge-o-maior-patamar-ja-registrado-diz-fgvibre.ghtml|work=G1|access-date=2019-05-22|date=21 May 2019}}</ref><ref name="Valor">{{cite web|title=Desigualdade de renda no Brasil sobe pelo 17º trimestre consecutivo|url=https://www.valor.com.br/brasil/6265917/desigualdade-de-renda-no-brasil-sobe-pelo-17-trimestre-consecutivo|work=Valor Econômico|date=2019-05-19|access-date=2019-05-22|author=Bruno Villas Bôas|location=Rio de Janeiro}}</ref><ref name="IBRE">{{cite web |title=Levantamento do FGV IBRE aponta desigualdade recorde na renda do trabalho |trans-title=FGV IBRE survey points to record inequality in labor income |url=https://blogdoibre.fgv.br/posts/levantamento-do-fgv-ibre-aponta-desigualdade-recorde-na-renda-do-trabalho |work=IBRE/FGV |access-date=23 May 2019 |date=27 January 2022 |language=pt }}</ref> According to an Ibre researcher, Daniel Duque, the recovery of the job market benefited the most qualified and experienced, reinforcing inequality. Many underqualified people gave up trying to get a job, and the loss of hope was at a "[...] record high, and it helps to explain why, even after the decrease in unemployment, inequality kept rising."<ref name="Valor" /> === Emigration === {{main|Brazilian diaspora}} [[File:Quantidade de declarações de saída definitiva do Brasil.jpg|thumb|355px|Number of declarations of definite emigration from the country. Source: [[Receita Federal do Brasil|Receita Federal]].<ref name=":4">{{cite web|title=Cresce número de brasileiros que decidem viver no exterior; países oferecem oportunidades de emprego|url=https://g1.globo.com/economia/concursos-e-emprego/noticia/2019/04/03/cresce-numero-de-brasileiros-que-decidem-viver-no-exterior-paises-oferecem-oportunidades-de-emprego.ghtml|work=G1|author=Luiz Guilherme Gerbelli|access-date=25 October 2019|date=3 April 2019}}</ref>]] The number of declarations of definitive departure from the country began to grow in the first year of crisis and has increased steadily ever since, according to [[Receita Federal do Brasil|Receita Federal]]. Among the countries that received the most Brazilian citizens were the [[United States]], [[Japan]] and [[Canada]], which, due to low unemployment and aging populations among other reasons, needed a boost to decrease the age of the workforce.<ref name=":4" /> Another destination was [[Portugal]], which conceded Portuguese citizenship to 8,000 Brazilians only in 2016, according to [[Eurostat]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Brasileiros foram os que mais receberam nacionalidade portuguesa em 2016|url=https://exame.com.br/brasil/brasileiros-foram-os-que-mais-receberam-nacionalidade-portuguesa-em-2016/|date=9 April 2018|author=Agência Brasil|language=pt|access-date=28 March 2021}}</ref> Besides the crisis, another reason for the emigration were the elevated levels of [[Crime in Brazil|criminality]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Mais de 80 mil brasileiros migram para Portugal em busca de segurança|url=https://exame.com.br/brasil/mais-de-80-mil-brasileiros-migram-para-portugal-em-busca-de-seguranca/|language=pt|access-date=28 March 2021|publisher=EXAME|author=Agência Brasil|date=8 May 2018 }}</ref> According to a JBJ Partners employee (a company specialized in expatriation to the [[United States]]), many who fled Brazil were qualified workers: {{blockquote|We're talking about qualified people. The profile of the immigrant is no longer that of the poor individual looking for better opportunities. They are high executives, who are abandoning their careers to open a business abroad, people with Ph.D., which is sad because the country is losing resources.|Jorge Botrel, a JBJ partner.<ref>{{cite web |title=Com a crise, dispara a quantidade de brasileiros que desistem de viver no Brasil |url=https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/com-a-crise-dispara-a-quantidade-de-brasileiros-que-desistem-de-viver-no-brasil.ghtml |work=G1|access-date=25 October 2019|date=17 December 2017|author=Luísa Melo}}</ref>}} An [[OECD]] report shows an even higher number {{Citation needed|reason= Stub sentence - needs comparative material|date=April 2020}} . In 2016 80,000 Brazilians emigrated legally to one of the member states of the OECD, whereas 99,000 did so in 2017. Similarly, data from Receita Federal shows that the number of people leaving Brazil increased in consecutive years since the beginning of the crisis.<ref>{{cite web |title=Imigração de brasileiros para países da OCDE subiu 24%, o terceiro maior aumento |url=https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2019/09/18/politica/1568843366_553673.html |work=El País|author=Felipe Betim|access-date=25 October 2019|date=19 September 2019}}</ref> === Credit rating === This is a table of the credit ratings of the Brazilian economy according to Trading Economics.{{who|date=April 2017}}{{citation needed|date=April 2017}} {| class="wikitable" |- ! Agency !! Rating !! Outlook !! Date |- | Fitch || BB || negative || May 5, 2016 |- | TE || 34 || negative || Apr 16 2016 |- | Moody's || Ba2 || negative || Feb 24 2016 |- | S&P || BB || negative || Feb 17 2016 |} == Anti-crisis measures == [[File:Entrevistas Diversas (30847431200).jpg|[[Henrique Meirelles]], the [[Ministry of Finance (Brazil)|Minister of Finance]] from May 2016 to April 2018|thumb]] Since the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and [[Michel Temer]]'s subsequent rise to power, several measures, most of which are unpopular, were implemented or proposed to get the economy back on track.<ref>{{cite journal|title='Aproveito impopularidade para tomar medidas necessárias', diz Temer|url=http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2016/12/1843702-aproveito-impopularidade-para-tomar-medidas-necessarias-diz-temer.shtml|journal=Folha de S.Paulo|date=22 December 2016|access-date=17 June 2017|author=Marina Dias Valdo Cruz|location=Brasília}}</ref> The most important of which were: * The {{ill|95º Constitutional amendment|pt|Emenda Constitucional do Teto dos Gastos Públicos|vertical-align=sup}} (a.k.a. "new fiscal regime"): Constitutional amendment which established a "ceiling" (upper limit) to government spending for the next 20 years;<ref>{{cite journal|title=Temer elogia aprovação da PEC do Teto e minimiza menor número de votos a favor|url=http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2016-12/temer-elogia-aprovacao-da-pec-do-teto-e-minimiza-menor-numero-de-votos|access-date=17 June 2017|location=Brasília|journal= Agência Brasil|date=13 December 2016|author=Paulo Victor Chagas}}</ref> * The [[Outsourcing law in Brazil|Outsourcing law]], which allows companies to hire outsourced employees to work on primary activities, and not just secondary activities (such as security or cleaning);<ref>{{cite web|title=Com vetos, Temer sanciona lei que permite terceirização de atividade-fim|url=http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2017-03/temer-sanciona-lei-que-permite-terceirizacao-em-atividade-fim-das-empresas|access-date=17 June 2017|work = Agência Brasil|date=31 March 2017|author=Ivan Richard Esposito|location=Brasília}}</ref> * The [[Brazil labor reform (2017)|2017 labor reform]], a significant change in the [[Consolidation of Labor Laws]]; and<ref>{{cite web|title=Com flexibilização de vários pontos da CLT, reforma trabalhista divide opiniões|url=http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2017-04/com-flexibilizacao-de-varios-pontos-da-clt-reforma-trabalhista-divide|access-date=17 June 2017|work = Agência Brasil|location=São Paulo|date=13 April 2017|author=Daniel Mello}}</ref> * a pension reform, which the government failed to approve.<ref>{{cite web|title=Governo desiste da votação da Previdência e anuncia nova pauta prioritária no Congresso|url=https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/governo-desiste-da-votacao-da-previdencia-e-anuncia-nova-pauta-prioritaria-no-congresso.ghtml|work = G1|access-date=26 May 2019|date=19 February 2018|author1=Guilherme Mazui |author2=Roniara Castilhos}}</ref> One year after the labor reform was approved, however, it was verified that the decrease in unemployment was minimal, while the contracts of intermittent, outsourced and temporary labor increased.<ref>{{cite web|author=Fabiana Futema|date=10 November 2018|title=Um ano depois, reforma trabalhista não gera empregos esperados|url=https://veja.abril.com.br/economia/um-ano-depois-reforma-trabalhista-nao-gera-empregos-esperados/|work=VEJA.com|access-date=2019-05-26}}</ref> == Recovery == {{Update|section|date=January 2023}} In early 2017, there were already signals that the economy was beginning to recover, however, it was agreed that the process would be long and slow.<ref>{{cite web|title=Recuperação da economia brasileira será longa e lenta, aponta 'FT'|url=http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,recuperacao-da-economia-brasileira-sera-longa-e-lenta-aponta-ft,70001658076}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Recuperação da economia brasileira ainda é lenta, diz presidente do Itaú|url=http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2017/04/1876544-recuperacao-da-economia-brasileira-ainda-e-lenta-diz-presidente-do-itau.shtml}}</ref> In June 2017, a 1% rise in GDP in the first quarter of the year was reported.<ref name="jn"/> It was the first rise of the GDP after eight consecutive falls (two years).<ref name=":0"> {{Cite news|title= PIB do Brasil cresce 1% no 1º trimestre de 2017, após 8 quedas seguidas|url=http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/pib-do-brasil-cresce-10-no-1-trimestre-de-2017.ghtml}}</ref> Minister of Finance [[Henrique Meirelles]] said that the country had left the "greatest recession of the century."<ref>{{citation |title=PIB sobe 1% no 1º trimestre, após oito quedas consecutivas|url=http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,pib-sobe-1-0-no-1-trimestre-apos-oito-quedas-consecutivas,70001821658}}</ref> However, economists say that the growth characterizes only the end of the "technical recession" and that it is still too early to claim that the crisis is over, given that unemployment remains high and there's still widespread uncertainty regarding the future of the economy, especially in the aftermath of the recent political scandals.<ref>{{cite web|title=PIB positivo é 'saída técnica' da recessão, mas recuperação é incerta; entenda|date=June 2017 |url=http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/pib-positivo-e-saida-tecnica-da-recessao-mas-recuperacao-e-incerta-entenda.ghtml|access-date=5 June 2017}}</ref> == Comparison with other crises == [[Image:Countries by Real GDP Growth Rate (2016).svg|thumb|Real GDP growth in 2016. Source: ''CIA World Factbook''<ref>{{cite web|title=The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2003rank.html|work=Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)|access-date=2020-02-29|archive-date=2017-07-01|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170701201952/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2003rank.html|url-status=dead}}</ref>|355px]] In countries with similar size and wealth, there were a few, but less severe crises in the same period. In 2015, among [[OECD]] countries, only [[Russia]] went through a recession. Even after the economic sanctions imposed by other countries due to the [[Russian military intervention in Ukraine (2014–present)|conflict in Ukraine]], Russia's GDP fell by only 4% in two years (2015 and 2016). Few other countries in this period were going through a recession, which reinforces the argument that the crisis in Brazil was mainly due to local causes.<ref name="book">{{Cite book|last=Carvalho|first=Laura|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=XppWDwAAQBAJ|title=Valsa brasileira: Do boom ao caos econômico|date=2018-05-08|publisher=Editora Todavia S.A|isbn=978-85-93828-63-8|language=pt-BR}}</ref> In comparison to other crises in Brazil, it was verified that the 2014 crisis was not the deepest recession of Brazilian history, as previously thought. After the GDP values for 2015 and 2016 were reviewed by the [[Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics]] (IBGE), the economy shrank by 8.2% in the period, in contrast to the 8.5% in the 1981 recession. Despite the relative mildness, the crisis was prolonged, being followed by the slowest economic recovery in Brazilian history.<ref name="book" /> According to Codace (committee part of [[Fundação Getúlio Vargas]]), the 1981 crisis lasted nine economic quarters, reached its peak in the first quarter of 1983 and, since then, took seven quarters for the GDP the reach its pre-crisis level. Later, the 1989-1992 crisis lasted 11 quarters and the recovery time was the same: seven quarters. This crisis, however, had a lower intensity, with an accumulated decrease in the GDP of 7.7%.<ref name="book" /> In turn, Brazil's GDP after the 2014 crisis was expected to reach the pre-crisis level in 2022, according to an optimistic estimate, with 20 quarters of recovery in total. When taking into account both GDP and the employment rate, the recovery from this economic crisis would be measured as taking longer. In addition to the sluggish recovery, the new jobs will likely be of lower quality, including informal and autonomous labor.<ref name="book" /> == See also == * [[List of economic crises in Brazil]] * [[Brazil labor reform (2017)]] * [[Economy of Brazil]] * [[2018 in Brazil]] == References == {{Reflist|2}} ===Works cited=== * {{Cite book |title=Bernoulli 2a Série Ciências Humanas e Linguagem – Volume 4 |publisher=Editora DRP Ltda |date=2021 |location=Belo Horizonte |chapter=Capítulo 8: Nova República |author1=Geraldo Magela |author2= Edriano Abreu |author3=Isabel Cristina Leite |author4=Viviane Silva Gonzaga |ref={{harvid|Bernoulli|2021}}}} {{Government of Michel Temer}} {{Financial crises}} {{Operation Car Wash}} {{DEFAULTSORT:2014 Brazilian economic recession}} [[Category:2014 in economic history]] [[Category:2014 in Brazil]] [[Category:Economic crises in Brazil]] [[Category:Recessions]] [[Category:Government of Michel Temer]] [[Category:Economic history of Brazil]] </textarea><div 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