Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in Pharmaceutical Sales Through an Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach

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Pharmaceutical Sales Through an Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach</title> <meta name="description" content="Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in Pharmaceutical Sales Through an Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach"> <meta name="keywords" content="Gaussian Process Regression, Ensemble Kernels, Bayesian Optimization, Pharmaceutical Sales Analysis, Time Series Forecasting, Data Analysis."> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, minimum-scale=1, maximum-scale=1, user-scalable=no"> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta name="citation_title" content="Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in Pharmaceutical Sales Through an Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach"> <meta name="citation_author" content="Shahin Mirshekari"> <meta name="citation_author" content="Mohammadreza Moradi"> <meta name="citation_author" content="Hossein Jafari"> <meta name="citation_author" content="Mehdi Jafari"> <meta name="citation_author" content="Mohammad Ensaf"> <meta name="citation_publication_date" content="2024/07/01"> <meta name="citation_journal_title" content="International Journal of Computer and Information Engineering"> <meta name="citation_volume" content="18"> <meta name="citation_issue" content="5"> <meta name="citation_firstpage" content="255"> <meta name="citation_lastpage" content="260"> <meta name="citation_pdf_url" content="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/pdf"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon" rel="shortcut icon"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/bootstrap-4.2.1/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/fontawesome/css/all.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/css/site.css?v=150220211555" rel="stylesheet"> </head> <body> <header> <div class="container"> <nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg navbar-light"> <a class="navbar-brand" href="https://waset.org"> <img 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mt-3 mb-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem">Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in Pharmaceutical Sales Through an Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Shahin%20Mirshekari">Shahin Mirshekari</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Mohammadreza%20Moradi"> Mohammadreza Moradi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Hossein%20Jafari"> Hossein Jafari</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Mehdi%20Jafari"> Mehdi Jafari</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Mohammad%20Ensaf"> Mohammad Ensaf</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> <p>This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matérn, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matérn, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.</p> <iframe src="https://publications.waset.org/10013623.pdf" style="width:100%; height:400px;" frameborder="0"></iframe> <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Gaussian%20Process%20Regression" title="Gaussian Process Regression">Gaussian Process Regression</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Ensemble%20Kernels" title=" Ensemble Kernels"> Ensemble Kernels</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Bayesian%20Optimization" title=" Bayesian Optimization"> Bayesian Optimization</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Pharmaceutical%20Sales%20Analysis" title=" Pharmaceutical Sales Analysis"> Pharmaceutical Sales Analysis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Time%20Series%0D%0AForecasting" title=" Time Series Forecasting"> Time Series Forecasting</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Data%20Analysis." title=" Data Analysis."> Data Analysis.</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Digital Object Identifier (DOI):</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12602880" target="_blank">doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12602880</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/enhancing-predictive-accuracy-in-pharmaceutical-sales-through-an-ensemble-kernel-gaussian-process-regression-approach" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/apa" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">APA</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/bibtex" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">BibTeX</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/chicago" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Chicago</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/endnote" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">EndNote</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/harvard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Harvard</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/json" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">JSON</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/mla" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">MLA</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/ris" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">RIS</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/xml" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">XML</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623/iso690" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">ISO 690</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10013623.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">111</span> </span> <p class="card-text"><strong>References:</strong></p> <br>[1] S. R. Dutta, S. Das, P. Chatterjee, ”Smart Sales Prediction of Pharmaceutical Products,” in 2022 8th International Conference on Smart Structures and Systems (ICSSS), pp. 1-6, Apr. 2022, IEEE. <br>[2] P. K. Mianaei, M. Aliahmadi, S. Faghri, M. Ensaf, A. Ghasemi, and A. A. Abdoos, “Chance-constrained programming for optimal scheduling of combined cooling, heating, and power-based microgrid coupled with flexible technologies,” Sustainable Cities and Society, vol. 77, p. 103502, 2022. <br>[Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103502. <br>[3] R. Rathipriya, A. A. Abdul Rahman, S. Dhamodharavadhani, A. Meero, G. Yoganandan, ”Demand forecasting model for time-series pharmaceutical data using shallow and deep neural network model,” in Neural Computing and Applications, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 1945-1957, 2023. . <br>[4] Y. Han, ”A forecasting method of pharmaceutical sales based on ARIMA-LSTM model,” in 2020 5th International Conference on Information Science, Computer Technology and Transportation (ISCTT), pp. 336-339, Nov. 2020, IEEE. <br>[5] L. P. E. Yani, A. Aamer, ”Demand forecasting accuracy in the pharmaceutical supply chain: a machine learning approach,” in International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1-23, 2023. <br>[6] M. R. Moradi, S. R. N. Kalhori, M. G. Saeedi, M. R. Zarkesh, A. Habibelahi, et al., “Designing a Remote Closed-Loop Automatic Oxygen Control in Preterm Infants,” Iran J Pediatr., vol. 30, no. 4, p. e101715, 2020. <br>[Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.5812/ijp.101715. <br>[7] S. Ratre, J. Jayaraj, ”Sales Prediction Using ARIMA, Facebook’s Prophet and XGBoost Model of Machine Learning,” in Machine Learning, Image Processing, Network Security and Data Sciences: Select Proceedings of 3rd International Conference on MIND 2021, pp. 101-111, Jan. 2023, Springer Nature Singapore, Singapore. <br>[8] A. E. Jery, M. Aldrdery, N. Ghoudi, M. Moradi, I. H. Ali, H. H. Tizkam, S. S. Sammen, ”Experimental Investigation and Proposal of Artificial Neural Network Models of Lead and Cadmium Heavy Metal Ion Removal from Water Using Porous Nanomaterials,” in Sustainability, vol. 15, no. 19, p. 14183, 2023 <br>[9] R. Gustriansyah, E. Ermatita, D. P. Rini, ”An approach for sales forecasting,” in Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 207, p. 118043, 2022. <br>[10] S. Punia, S. Shankar, ”Predictive analytics for demand forecasting: A deep learning-based decision support system,” in Knowledge-Based Systems, vol. 258, p. 109956, 2022. <br>[11] G. A. Chressanthis, A. Sfekas, P. Khedkar, N. Jain, P. Poddar, ”Determinants of pharmaceutical sales representative access limits to physicians,” in Journal of Medical Marketing, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 220-243, 2014, doi: 10.1177/1745790415583866. <br>[12] J. F. Torres, D. Hadjout, A. Sebaa, F. Mart´ınez-A´ lvarez, A. Troncoso, ”Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: A Survey,” in Big Data, vol. 9, no. 1, Mary Ann Liebert Inc., pp. 3–21, Feb. 01, 2021, doi: 10.1089/big.2020.0159. </div> </div> </div> </main> <footer> <div id="infolinks" class="pt-3 pb-2"> <div class="container"> <div style="background-color:#f5f5f5;" class="p-3"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-md-2"> <ul class="list-unstyled"> About <li><a href="https://waset.org/page/support">About Us</a></li> <li><a href="https://waset.org/page/support#legal-information">Legal</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://publications.waset.org/static/files/WASET-16th-foundational-anniversary.pdf">WASET celebrates its 16th foundational anniversary</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="col-md-2"> <ul class="list-unstyled"> Account <li><a href="https://waset.org/profile">My Account</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="col-md-2"> <ul class="list-unstyled"> Explore <li><a href="https://waset.org/disciplines">Disciplines</a></li> <li><a href="https://waset.org/conferences">Conferences</a></li> <li><a href="https://waset.org/conference-programs">Conference Program</a></li> <li><a href="https://waset.org/committees">Committees</a></li> <li><a href="https://publications.waset.org">Publications</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="col-md-2"> <ul class="list-unstyled"> Research <li><a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts">Abstracts</a></li> <li><a href="https://publications.waset.org">Periodicals</a></li> <li><a href="https://publications.waset.org/archive">Archive</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="col-md-2"> <ul class="list-unstyled"> Open Science <li><a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://publications.waset.org/static/files/Open-Science-Philosophy.pdf">Open Science Philosophy</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://publications.waset.org/static/files/Open-Science-Award.pdf">Open Science Award</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://publications.waset.org/static/files/Open-Society-Open-Science-and-Open-Innovation.pdf">Open Innovation</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://publications.waset.org/static/files/Postdoctoral-Fellowship-Award.pdf">Postdoctoral Fellowship Award</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://publications.waset.org/static/files/Scholarly-Research-Review.pdf">Scholarly Research Review</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="col-md-2"> <ul class="list-unstyled"> Support <li><a href="https://waset.org/page/support">Support</a></li> <li><a href="https://waset.org/profile/messages/create">Contact Us</a></li> <li><a href="https://waset.org/profile/messages/create">Report Abuse</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="container text-center"> <hr style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:.3rem;"> <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" class="text-muted small">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a> <div id="copy" class="mt-2">© 2024 World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology</div> </div> </footer> <a href="javascript:" id="return-to-top"><i class="fas fa-arrow-up"></i></a> <div class="modal" id="modal-template"> <div class="modal-dialog"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="row m-0 mt-1"> <div class="col-md-12"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"><span aria-hidden="true">×</span></button> </div> </div> <div class="modal-body"></div> </div> </div> </div> <script src="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/jquery-3.3.1.min.js"></script> <script src="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/bootstrap-4.2.1/js/bootstrap.bundle.min.js"></script> <script src="https://cdn.waset.org/static/js/site.js?v=150220211556"></script> <script> jQuery(document).ready(function() { /*jQuery.get("https://publications.waset.org/xhr/user-menu", function (response) { jQuery('#mainNavMenu').append(response); });*/ jQuery.get({ url: "https://publications.waset.org/xhr/user-menu", cache: false }).then(function(response){ jQuery('#mainNavMenu').append(response); }); }); </script> </body> </html>

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Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in Pharmaceutical Sales Through an Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach