下周指数无风险，十月剣指三千点_次序无敌

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href="http://blog.sina.com.cn/" target ="_blank"><img class="SG_icon SG_icon107" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="18" height="18" title="已推荐到博客首页，点击查看更多精彩内容" align="absmiddle" /></a> </span> <h2 id="t_4fc778ea0102xzpf" class="titName SG_txta">下周指数无风险，十月剣指三千点</h2> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2018-09-22 10:01:29)</span> </div> <div class="articalTag" id="sina_keyword_ad_area"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <script> var $tag=''; var $tag_code='c488a170be432327fefeb28effe8d105'; var $r_quote_bligid='4fc778ea0102xzpf'; var $worldcup='0'; var $worldcupball='0'; </script> </td> <td class="blog_class"> </td> </tr> </table> </div>  <div id="sina_keyword_ad_area2" class="articalContent newfont_family"> <font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>一、观点回顾：可以说，本次底部判断堪称精准而坚定，只从文章题目就可看出。大上周末九月七日就指出“下周有望触底回升“，十日指出：二三天内或见底部。十二日指出：金九希望在明天。结果十三日在消息面的配合下，收出长下影中阳。上周末的十四日，虽然指数收阴，仍然指出本周收阳有望，即使周一中阴下跌，在市场完全被悲观情绪所笼罩之时，仍然明确指出空方已是强弩之末。并且精准提示次日第三小时就是第一个可以开涨的时间，有形成小双底的预期。结果在18日第三小时丝毫不着，象定好闹表一样准时开涨。</FONT> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr> 九月十三日这个时间，是在八月十一日文章：“一张图告诉你底在何处”中就给出过的，当时指出只要后面能跌破2691，九月十三日就有望见中期底。九月一日文章：“金九银十应可期，长期大底在那里”一文中进一步指出，九月十三日附近，是最有可能成为低部的时间，并且指出如果没有特大利空，这一波跌破2638有点难了。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr> 大盘实际见底时间，其实有两个，九月十三日的2647和九月十八日的2644并无本质区别。是个小双底结构，所以说哪个时间见底都是对的。关键之处是从周线上判断，底就在这附近，才能在九月十七日中缩量中阴之后，仍然坚持看多，而不是被中阴吓到继续看空。这一点极为重要。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr> 当然，十八日长阳后，你就不要担心什么熊市多长阳，或放量不够，十九日再涨之后，要能看清到达阻力位。而二十日小阴线强势调整，当然更不能认为指数会有多大风险，最差的情况也就是继续强势调整而已，并且随时有返身向上的可能。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>总之，之前指出的金九银十必居其一，金九行情如期出现，收阳已无悬念。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>二、直播回顾：周五盘前，先是指出了周四晚出现多个利好，外围大涨，加上大盘本身调整强势，周四最后一小时为时间点，大盘可能会有超预期表现，特别重要的是在集合竞价之前，指出周五可以考虑回补仓位。盘中突破2750时即指出至少可卖可不卖的个股，不需要再出了，因为大盘已经相对安全。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr> 个股方面，早盘感觉很难选，只勉强给出两个，其中第二个一没注意股票名还打错了，结果否打正着，恰好那个表现也不好。而第一个给出智慧松德上午涨停封的很好，但下午二八轮动，二股吸引资金，小股走弱，此股也被带开并大幅回落，盘中打板南风化工，还好，好不容易坚持住没有开板。所以虽然对大盘判断没有问题，但是对突然出现的二八转换，没有预期，盘中发现时，已经失去先机，所以个股把握的反而不好。不过A股例来是大盘搭台，小股唱戏，相信下周小股应有更好的表现。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr> 三、行情研判：周四文章等说过，突破上方阻力位的方式有两种。第一种是直接暴量上涨突破。第二冲是回调蓄势后再次攻击。显然昨天的突破多少有点两种结合的意味。2750到2800这五十点之间，是个多重阻力汇集之处，但到周五收盘已经突破了几道最主要压力，所以十八日是低点提前于二十日时间点两天见底的可能大增，这样节前几天也是处于上涨周期。即便周五属于超预期偶发上涨，是高点错后时间点出现，那么也因为是占用了下跌时间，并且力度极强，下周调整也会是很强势的，维持在高位震荡的概率也是很大的。所以总的判断是下周或涨或横，向下的机率很小。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr> 下周如果继续上涨，十一前最后一天还是时间点，按理说应当是高点，那样十一后走势反而有些不确定。但如果下周震荡向下，对突破后的趋势线时行一下回踩，节后开盘即涨的概率反而会比较确定。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr> 从就中期而言，18日盘中再三强调本周为周线时间点，而本周如期收出两年半以来的周线最大阳线，绝非偶然，那么周线一旦启动，就不会那么轻易结束，周五突破3587以来形成的下跌趋势线及中期生命线60均线，短期已经进入主多区间，所以说中期反弹基本可以确认。那么从一般规律而言，经过我的分析，上涨的第一空间目标可以看到三千点。极限目标应当不会超过3226点。时间方面，先看十二月初。</FONT></DIV> <div><font STYLE="font-size: 18px;"> <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>  <wbr>四、关于操作：周四文章指出，操作上完全可以在周五处理掉短线仓位，中线仓位不动，提前给自己放假。最多如果回调，节前最后一天成低点，可以回补一下仓位。其实周五指数大涨，这个策略也并无不当之处。因为短线仓位肯定是不会去做大盘股，主要还是题材小股，周五逢高出正是好时机。因为除了涨停的，冲高回落和炸板的的数量众多，炸板和冲板不封的近二十支。而周五的换手连续涨停的，勉强算只有三支。强股中的科新机电，达刚路机，睿康股份纷跌停，西安饮食，智慧松德，德新交运等高位大面。如果执行以上策略，这些可能都与你无关。那么下周总的策略是上涨持有，下跌加仓。短线非做不可的话，看周一题材股是否回暖，否则仍可休息到十一后。</FONT></DIV> </div>  <div id='share' class="shareUp nor"> <div class="share SG_txtb clearfix"> <span class="share-title">分享：</span> <div class="bshare-custom" style="display:inline;margin-left:5px;"> </div> </div> <div class="up"> <div title="喜欢后让更多人看到" id="dbox_4fc778ea0102xzpf" class="upBox upBox_click" style="cursor: pointer;"> <p ti_title="下周指数无风险，十月剣指三千点" 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