Mysteel年报：2025内蒙古型钢价格或震荡偏弱运行-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>价格整体呈现震荡下行的价格走势，开年受到部分高负债省市终端项目工程被叫停影响，型材需求收缩明显。贸易商存在谨慎避险心态，市场强预期与持续弱现实间的博弈下，钢价不断下移。以内蒙古包头5#角钢为例，均价较去年环比下降367元/吨，价格较去年同比下降610元/吨。那么2025年内蒙古型钢市场将如何演绎？下面笔者通过以下几点，对2024年西北型钢市场回顾及2025年展望。</span></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span style="color: #000000;">一、2024年价格走势回顾</span></strong></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #000000;">一季度：以内蒙古包头5#角钢为例，一季度末价格对比季度初整体下跌360元/吨。1月至春节期间型材价格波动幅度整体不大，春节过后受到下游项目工程恢复进度慢影响型材价格弱调。进入3月，传统“金三”预期落空，市场方面打破传统预期，贸易商悲观情绪加剧。</span></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #000000;">二季度：4月份宏观政策不断发力，推动所有增发国债项目于今年6月底前开工建设。在一系列利好消息的提振下，期钢先行上涨，原料方坯价格紧随其后，型材成品被动上涨。后半月随着向供需层面以及现实需求端的回归，市场价格呈现出“降温”观望状态。五一假期结束后，国内利好消息的释放，国外美联储政策、中东地缘冲突缓解，以及离岸人民币大幅升值等正向消息刺激。型材市场迎来了贸易商集中投机补库，钢厂集中放量火热。此时的5#角钢型材价格达到二季度高点3910元/吨，较二季度低点相差240元/吨。6月常规需求淡季，内蒙古型钢市场供需基本面矛盾难以化解，供需矛盾加大。</span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 347.943px;" src="https://img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/06/0929301.png" width="600" height="348" /></span></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #000000;">三季度：7-8月份内蒙古型材市场，在宏观预期消退以及<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>新旧标切换影响下，市场情绪回落。加之正值需求淡季去库压力加大，贸易商操作愈发谨慎，主要以促出货为主。9月末随着存量政策有效落实和增量政策加快推出，以及人民银行下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点等多项重磅金融政策密出台。市场稳预期信心增强，型钢价格迎来强势上涨。9月包头市场5#角钢单日最大涨幅160元/吨。</span></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #000000;">四季度：十月一假期过后首日价格快速上涨，10月8日单日价格较节前对比上涨130元/吨。但伴随着价格的9月底，十月初价格的短期、快速拉涨后，市场心态回归谨慎，存在恐高避险心理。市场对于政策“敏感度”明显降低，收效甚微。型材价格开启震荡下跌“模式”场需求表现不佳。10月包头5#角钢价格月度下跌240元/吨。11月以来型钢需求持续不佳，供需矛盾不断扩大。截至12月31日，包头5#角钢价格降至3440元/吨，季度价格对比下跌420元/吨。</span></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><strong><span style="color: #000000;">二、北方区域型钢厂生产库存情况回顾</span></strong></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 385.561px;" src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/06/0929302.png" width="600" height="386" /></span></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #000000;">华北区域型钢开工率和产能利用率于2月份新年期间降至全年低点，全年开工率均值23.6%。3月份传统“金三”预期落空，市场悲观情绪浓重。终端下游工程恢复进程缓慢，且项目资金压力大。此时的北方区域部分型钢厂存在主动停产检修，主力降低库存的情况，库存在3月22日降至年内低位52.4万吨。6月份进入常规淡季，供需矛盾扩大化，钢厂亏损加剧，需求不济等因素影响，随之而来的是厂家的高库存压力，钢厂端形成累库阶段。于6月28日达到年内库存高位107.4万吨。当前北方区域工角槽厂家开工率21.28%，较全年均值低2.3%。工角槽库存99.85万吨，处于全年次高水平。全年北方区域<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010705-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>H型钢</a>厂开工率均值49.6%，产能利用率均值47.1%。H型钢方面主要的销售模式属于代理协议定量模式，全年库存均值在9.37万吨。那么当前H型钢北方区域库存有6.4万吨，H型钢厂厂库压力不大。</span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 388.424px;" src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/06/0929303.png" width="600" height="388" /></span></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #000000;">那么整体北方型钢区域来看，型钢厂当前厂内库存总量106.25万吨。其中工角槽厂库99.85万吨，H型钢厂库6.4万吨。全年库存平均值99.6万吨。</span></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><span style="color: #000000;">当前部分型钢厂采取不饱和生产或主动停产检修，主力销售现有库存情况。北方区域型钢厂处于库存高位，需求呈现弱势，厂家去库压力加大。</span></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><strong><span style="color: #000000;">2025年市场展望</span></strong></p> <p style="text-align: left; margin: 5pt 0pt;"><strong><span style="color: #000000;">一、宏观方面：</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 5pt 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000000;">1、1月3日，重要会议指出，城市更新关系城市面貌和居住品质的提升，是扩大内需的重要抓手。要加快推进城镇老旧小区、街区、厂区和城中村等改造，加强用地、资金等要素保障，盘活利用存量低效用地，支持各地因地制宜进行创新探索，建立健全可持续的城市更新机制。</span></p> <p style="margin: 5pt 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000000;">2、1月3日，新闻发布会上表示，2025年，要加力扩围实施“两新”政策。一是扩大范围。将设备更新支持范围扩大至电子信息、安全生产、设施农业等领域。实施手机等数码产品购新补贴，对个人消费者购买手机、平板、智能手表手环等3类数码产品给予补贴。二是提升标准。进一步提高新能源城市公交车及动力电池更新、农机报废更新补贴标准。加大家装消费品换新支持力度。</span></p> <p style="margin: 5pt 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000000;">3、2025年中国人民银行工作会议1月3日-4日召开。会议强调，实施适度宽松的货币政策，为经济稳定增长创造适宜的货币金融环境。综合运用多种货币政策工具，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息，保持流动性充裕、金融总量稳定增长，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。更好把握存量与增量的关系，注重盘活存量金融资源，提高资金使用效率。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，坚决防范汇率超调风险。</span></p> <p style="margin: 5pt 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>二、供应方面：</strong>从整体24年型钢供应形式来看，北方型钢整体呈现供应大于需求局面。型钢区域化发展进程明显，市场资源竞争加剧。那么，《2024—2025年节能降碳行动方案》明确，到2025年底，钢铁行业能效标杆水平以上产能占比达到30%，能效基准水平以下产能完成技术改造或淘汰退出，全国80%以上钢铁产能完成超低排放改造。钢铁企业产品结构调整及节能降碳改造，行业供给有望收紧。</span></p> <p style="margin: 5pt 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>三、需求方面：</strong> 2024年前期新增专项债发行速度较缓，三季度的超量发行，使得今年新增专项债券额度殆尽。投向来看，目前“特殊”新增专项债券规模约8800亿元，且根据统计地方政府债券资金的投向，我国2024年1-11月地方政府债券基建投资占比为57%左右，较2023年下滑近3%。12月25日发布关于优化完善地方政府专项债券管理机制的意见（以下简称意见）中提出要扩大专项债券投向领域，将完全无收益的项目以及楼堂馆所、形象工程和政绩工程以及除保障性住房、土地储备以外的房地产开发等一系列项目纳入“负面清单”；扩大专项债券用作项目资本金范围；完善专项债券项目预算平衡；优化专项债券项目审核和管理机制；加快专项债券发行使用；强化专项债券全流程管理；加强专项债券监督问责以及强化保障措施。预计2025年基础设施投资或将超过2024年，但幅度或将有限。</span></p> <p style="margin: 5pt 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>总结：</strong>2025年型钢行业供应大于需求仍将是影响价格波动的决定性因素，生产企业的高供应在未有明确的政策前或继续维持高点，需求改善或将不具备主动性。内蒙古型钢在需求预期偏弱的前提下均价或将有所下移。且要综合考虑2025年宏观政策性调控方面的实际发行力度和执行落地情况。综上所述，内蒙古型钢价格或均价下移。</span></p> <p style="margin: 5pt 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #000000;"> </span></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：窦金星 021-26093601 </br> 资讯监督：王美 021-26093608 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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