Mysteel日报：铜价拉涨市场提货增加再生铜杆交投升温明显-我的钢铁网

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style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>-近期热点-</strong></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>市场将美联储峰值利率的预期推高至5%以上</strong></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>资讯：</strong></span>鲍威尔11月3日表示可能需要大幅提高利率，掉期交易员对此仍持怀疑态度。2023年5月和6月的利率掉期合约显示，利率将达到近5.15%的峰值，高于周三低于5%的水平。这对美国国债的持有者来说是一个打击，他们在美联储周三加息75个基点之前就押注利率即将见顶。CIBC Private Wealth US固定收益部门主管表示，市场正在推高对终端利率的预期，这可能导致收益率走高。道明证券利率策略全球主管表示，美国国债收益率曲线可能进一步倒挂，因为美联储可能会继续加息，并容忍经济出现一定程度的放缓。预计目前的实际紧缩力度可能会导致美国经济在2023年下半年陷入衰退。</p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080; font-family: 微软雅黑;"><strong>-总结预测-</strong></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>总结：</strong></span></span><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日精<a style="color: #3861ab; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="https://tong.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">铜</a>杆价格主要集中在64740-65340元/吨，再生<a style="color: #3861ab; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="https://tong.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">铜</a>杆价格主要集中在63700-64000元/吨。精<a style="color: #3861ab; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="https://tong.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">铜</a>杆方面，</span>今日各主流市场成交表现有所分化，华北、华南等区域多数企业表现欠佳，但部分大型企业及低价货源日内订单量不断涌现，成交量多在十余车以上；华东区域整体市场接货端拿货意愿较低，订单量环比下滑。再生<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>杆方面，早间<span style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: sans-serif;"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>尾盘快速拉涨带动精废杆差有序扩张，从市场各方的反馈情况来看，江西、广东等地市场接货端拿货热情高涨，询盘问价积极度明显上升，多数铜杆企业在接到足量订单后选择上调报价，但下游企业拿货动作依旧频繁，市场交易浪潮迭起，成交量多在10车以上；然而河北等地由于疫情扰动，物流受阻，整体成交表现欠佳。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>预测：</strong></span></span><span style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: sans-serif;">铜价日内拉涨，下游企业对精<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020105-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废铜</a></span><span style="text-indent: 2em; font-family: sans-serif;">杆采购意愿均有所增强，日内拿货量均有所回升，但更多交易依旧集中在低价货源方面</span><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; text-indent: 2em; font-family: sans-serif;">；</span><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; text-indent: 2em; font-family: sans-serif;">同时市场更多关注铜价走势，预计短时间内订单情况更多取决于铜价表现</span>。</p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080; font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><strong>-精铜杆市场-</strong></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>华东地区：</strong></span></span></span><span style="text-indent: 2em;">今日市场成交情况整体不太理想，虽市场加工费继续下调，但铜价早间尾盘快速拉升，市场接货端询价积极性较弱，拿货情绪欠佳，从成交情况来看，部分铜杆企业订单量在200余吨，交投转冷。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;">江苏某铜杆生产企业表示，今日日内订单量较少，多数订单集中在昨日夜盘。据调研，随着进口货源持续流入华东市场，预计后期区域升水或将继续承压；但由于铜价波动较大，市场交易多以谨慎采买、逢低补库为主，仍需持续留意铜价表现对市场交投的影响。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>华北地区：</strong></span></span></span><span style="text-indent: 2em;">今日市场订单情况各企业间有所分化，由于早间市场出现超低价货源，市场交易基本集中在低价货源方面；而其他企业由于加工费下调空间有限，实际零单成交情况欠佳，多以长单提货为主。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;">北方某铜杆生产企业表示，由于企业加工费存在优势，日内订单表现优异，录得十余车以上成交量。据调研，目前河北廊坊、沧州、邢台等地疫情形势日渐严峻，区域下游企业提货效率出现明显下降，加之天津部分区域亦有类似情况，整体北方物流效率明显受损；同时，当前铜价波动率上升，市场更多关注铜价走势，预计短期内北方市场铜杆交投仍将取决于铜价表现。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>华南地区：</strong></span></span></span><span style="text-indent: 2em;">铜价早间缓慢攀升，待至早盘尾声迅速拉涨，目前广东<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>交投依旧清淡，区域升水继续承压回落，致使精铜杆零单加工费跟随下调；由于当前零单报盘已低于市场长单加工费，下游线缆企业零单采购情绪有所回升，市场交投氛围有所回暖，但更多以中小型企业刚需采购为主，不过由于市场铜杆现货偏紧，大型企业依旧维持长单提货为主，零单采购为辅的补库计划；从询得的情况来看，多数铜杆企业零单成交量在200-300余吨左右，部分表现优异的企业录得500吨以上成交，长单提货量继续下滑。</span></span></p> <p><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;">广东某铜杆生产企业表示，今日订单表现环比昨日继续向好，但多为小型企业分散采购，大型企业依旧以长单为主。据调研，目前广州、佛山、汕头等地疫情形势依旧不容小觑，尤其广州情况最甚，但从了解的情况来看，区域铜杆企业生产及物流运输暂未受明显影响，不过仍需持续关注区域疫情形势变化；同时，随着年末来临，南方市场部分区域天然气调价明显，区域铜杆企业生产成本增加，部分企业生产积极性有所降低，但大型企业生产情况依旧维持高水准，但精铜杆更多仍以长单交易为主，叠加再生铜杆替代效应逐渐凸显，预计短时间内南方市场成交将更多围绕再生铜杆优质货源及精铜杆长单两方面进行。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><img style="border-width: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; width: 870px; height: 616px; margin: 0px auto 0px auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/11/04/378b010ea9894c17a2f451f2ed65c6bb.png" alt="" /></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: right;">数据来源：<a style="color: #3861ab; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="https://www.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mysteel</a></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">-再生铜杆市场-</span></span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>华北地区：</strong></span>河北市场，市场厂家报价多为63700-63800元/吨，较前一交易日基本不变。今日市场接货情绪表现尚可，后再生铜杆价格跟涨，致使午后订单下滑，市场参与者多目前区域内疫情仍是限制订单回升的主要因素，部分铜杆企业日内成交仍未见明显改善。今日某铜杆企业以63800元/吨自提成交约200吨。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>华东地区：</strong></span>江西市场，今日铜厂成交价主要集中在63800-63900元/吨自提，价格较上一交易日上调300元/吨。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>今日铜价</a>午后拉升，订单情况表现差异，从厂家反馈情况来看，午后时段为成交高潮，多数铜杆厂家跟随盘面调高报价，而下游企业担忧后续铜价继续走高纷纷入场按需采购。今日日间成交量在400吨以上，少数企业录得700吨以上优异表现。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>华中地区：</strong></span>湖北市场，今日铜杆成交价为63700-64400元/吨自提，价格较上一交易上调200元/吨。今日湖北市场成交分明显，一方面，随着铜价走高，部分厂家畏高情绪浓厚，原料采购不佳后停止报价出货；另一方面，部分铜杆厂家随铜价采买销售，以采定销，整体出货量良好，在300吨以上。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>华南地区：</strong></span>广东市场，今日市场贸易商报价63850-63900元/吨送到，较前一交易日上涨200元/吨。今日午间铜价迅速走强提振市场交投氛围，再生铜杆价格优势再度显现，贸易商及铜杆企业反馈日内订单量相当充裕，多数企业录得十余车成交表现，部分大型企业由于原料补库充足，更是录得20车以上订单量，成交环比明显转好。日内某铜杆企业以63900元/吨自提成交约400吨。</span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><img style="border-width: 0px; display: block; max-width: 100%; width: 870px; height: 539px; margin: 0px auto 0px auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/11/04/ff0e8ddcfac7435bb667f9e8278e8d30.png" alt="" /></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: right;">数据来源：<a style="color: #3861ab; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="https://www.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mysteel</a></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>-原料市场-</strong></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>电解铜-<a style="color: #3861ab; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="https://shanghai.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">上海</a>市场：</strong></span></span></span><span style="text-indent: 2em;">隔夜铜价低开高走，日内震荡上涨，整体交投重心较上个交易日小幅下移，现货升水维持跌势。近期进口货源仍在流入补充市场，主以差平、湿法等货源为主。持货商面对流通货源增多情况下，难以挺价，现货升水再次走低，且湿法铜货源买盘稀缺，日内报价呈现贴水行情，仍成交有限。早间铜价收回昨日跌幅，盘面表现强势，下游市场畏高情绪不减，虽升水下调，但未能达到其采购心理预期，加之下游订单表现不佳，因此日内维持刚需采购为主。整体来看，美联储加息靴子落地，短期市场情绪修复，盘面维持高位震荡运行，加工企业畏高采购需求疲软，交投一般。据mysteel数据调研统计周四上海库存继续保持增加，市场逼仓局势基本缓解，因此短期市场看空情绪氛围较浓，加之宏观环境仍利空于铜价，警惕盘面高位回落风险。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>电解铜-广东市场：</strong></span></span></span><span style="text-indent: 2em;">今日广东市场成交清淡。据反馈，目前下游对铜价畏高情绪依旧浓厚，加之下游消费不佳，因此采购需求较弱。贸易商方面，基本以满足长单交付为主，散单成交较少。临近交割换月，加之目前铜价超出下游心理预期，因此预计下周市场将仍持谨慎观望态度，成交难有较大改善。</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #000080;"><strong>再生铜：</strong></span></span><a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-align: justify; background-color: #ffffff; color: #444444;" href="https://tong.mysteel.com/">铜价</a><span style="color: #444444; text-align: justify; background-color: #ffffff; float: none; display: inline;">低位拉升，现货供应紧张。上游货商捂货待涨情绪较强，但考虑到手中库存偏低，高价补库风险较大，贸易热情持续被打压。而部分贸易商面临交单，选择加价采购，效果同样难及预期。下游企业普遍反馈期铜月差较大，接货意愿不强，仍将维持按需补库节奏。鉴于废铜采购需求难有实质性提升，今日厂家报价倾向保守，即使按照市场价格小幅溢价，实际成交表现依旧困难。废黄铜方面，持货商出货情绪懈怠，报价不及预期则坚决捂货，致使市场成交寡淡。</span> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><img style="border-width: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; width: 587px; height: 373px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/11/04/72ac5fb7cbc74da1a8f3214f5c431020.png" alt="" /></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline;"><img style="border-width: 0px; display: block; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; width: 587px; height: 344px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/11/04/3bc1ec9801234b81be71bdea7f563d60.png" alt="" /></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: right;">数据来源：<a style="color: #3861ab; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="https://www.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mysteel</a></p> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; overflow: hidden; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: left;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px; background-color: #ffffff; float: none; display: inline;">2022大宗商品年报出炉在即！欢迎抢鲜品读！</span><br style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px;" data-filtered="filtered" /><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px; background-color: #ffffff; float: none; display: inline;">报告聚焦钢材、煤焦、</span><a style="color: #3861ab; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px;" href="https://tks.mysteel.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">铁矿石</a><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px; background-color: #ffffff; float: none; display: inline;">、<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>新材料、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>等9大品种，由100余位资深分析师倾力打造，深度剖析钢铁产业1000余条细分产业链长周期数据，涵盖价格、产能、产量、进出口、库存、资源流向、市场消费量、区域供需平衡等市场基本面解析，囊括行业热点、宏观政策等全方位解读。</span><br style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px;" data-filtered="filtered" /><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px; background-color: #ffffff; float: none; display: inline;">点击下方链接预定：</span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #e10000;"><a style="color: #e10000; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="http://sem.mysteel.com/report.html">http://sem.mysteel.com/report.html</a> </span></strong><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px; background-color: #ffffff; float: none; display: inline;">或者</span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei'; font-size: 16px; text-indent: 32px;"><span style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; color: #e10000;"><a style="color: #e10000; text-decoration-line: none; outline-style: none;" href="https://sem.mysteel.com/reportm.html">https://sem.mysteel.com/reportm.html</a></span></strong></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：龙晶 021-26094234 </br> 资讯监督：全长煜 021-26093852 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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