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value="temperature">Temperature</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-2161" data-sf-count="12" data-sf-depth="0" value="tipping-points">Tipping points</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-1897" data-sf-count="42" data-sf-depth="0" value="translations">Translations</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-59" data-sf-count="107" data-sf-depth="0" value="uk-emissions">UK emissions</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-64" data-sf-count="355" data-sf-depth="0" value="uk-policy">UK policy</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-24" data-sf-count="33" data-sf-depth="0" value="uk-temperature">UK temperature</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-2041" data-sf-count="67" data-sf-depth="0" value="un-climate-talks">UN climate talks</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-1835" data-sf-count="34" data-sf-depth="0" value="us-policy">US Policy</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-2177" data-sf-count="14" data-sf-depth="0" value="webinars">Webinars</option> <option 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href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bb84c8ced9d1ded8cf86fccedec8cf9bcbd4c8cf819bf7dec8c8d4d5c89bd7dedac9d5dedf9bddc9d4d69bddd2cdde9bc2dedac9c89bd4dd9bdec3cfc9ded6de9bccdedacfd3dec99b593b23c9dacbd2df9bdacfcfc9d2d9cecfd2d4d5593b229ddad6cb80d9d4dfc286d3cfcfcbc8819494cccccc95d8dac9d9d4d5d9c9d2dedd95d4c9dc94dccedec8cf96cbd4c8cf96d7dec8c8d4d5c896d7dedac9d5dedf96ddc9d4d696ddd2cdde96c2dedac9c896d4dd96dec3cfc9ded6de96ccdedacfd3dec996c9dacbd2df96dacfcfc9d2d9cecfd2d4d59495" title="Share by Email"><i class="fa fa-envelope"></i></a></li> </ul> <a href="#" id="showArtS"><i class="shareIconG"></i></a> <a href="#"><i class="printIcon"></i></a> </div> <div class="scrollWrapper"> <div class="scroll-bar"></div> </div> </div>  <div class="article-wrapper"> <aside class="guest-editor-box"> <p><span style="font-weight: 400">This guest post is by:</span></p> <p><a href="https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/onze-mensen/geert-jan-van-oldenborgh" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Dr Geert Jan van Oldenborgh</strong></span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, a senior researcher at the </span><a href="https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/about" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400">Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> (KNMI)</span></p> <p><strong><a href="http://www.karinvanderwiel.nl/" target="_blank">Dr Karin van der Wiel</a></strong><span style="font-weight: 400">, a senior researcher at KNMI</span></p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sarah-Kew" target="_blank">Dr Sarah Kew</a></strong><span style="font-weight: 400">, a researcher at KNMI</span></p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sjoukje-Philip" target="_blank">Dr Sjoukje Philip</a></strong><span style="font-weight: 400">, a researcher at KNMI</span></p> <p><a href="https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/fotto.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Dr Friederike Otto</strong></span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, associate director of the </span><a href="https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400">Environmental Change Institute</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> at the </span><a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400">University of Oxford</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">.</span></p> <p><a href="https://www.climatecentre.org/about-us/our-people" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Prof Maarten van Aalst</strong></span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, director of the </span><a href="https://www.climatecentre.org/" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400">Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> and a </span><a href="https://research.utwente.nl/en/persons/maarten-van-aalst" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400">professor</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> in the </span><a href="https://research.utwente.nl/en/organisations/faculty-of-geo-information-science-and-earth-observation" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400">Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> at the </span><a href="https://www.utwente.nl/en/" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400">University of Twente</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">.</span></p> </aside> <div class="innerArt"> <p>In the immediate aftermath of an extreme weather event, a common question arises around how much human-caused climate change contributed to its likelihood or severity.</p> <p>For the past two decades, the rapidly growing field of <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">extreme event attribution</a> means that scientists have increasingly been able to answer this question.</p> <p>However, carrying out these assessments and publishing them in peer-reviewed journals typically takes a year or longer. This means that the findings are only available long after the event has ended and it is merely a distant memory in the public mind.  </p> <p>To tackle this problem, we established the <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">World Weather Attribution</a> (WWA) initiative in 2015. This collaboration – between climate scientists in the UK, Netherlands, France and beyond – works to rapidly quantify the role of climate change within a few days or weeks after an extreme event. This means we are providing information while it is still highly relevant for the public and disaster recovery planners.</p> <p>Since our first study of the <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/european-heat-wave-july-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">European heatwave</a> in the summer of 2015, we have carried out <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analyses/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more than 30 individual assessments</a>. In a new paper, published in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-021-03071-7" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Climatic Change</a>, we look back at the process we developed and discuss some of the lessons we have learned.</p> <p>Our main realisation from the past five years is that the actual attribution assessment is actually just <a href="https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/177/2020/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">one step out of eight</a> – and it is probably the easiest one of the whole set. </p> <p>In this piece, we look at what is involved in each individual step of the process:</p> <ol class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="#which" rel="nofollow">The trigger: which events do we attribute?</a></li><li><a href="#define" rel="nofollow">The event definition: which aspects of the extreme event were most relevant?</a></li><li><a href="#how" rel="nofollow">Observational trend analysis: how rare was it and how has that changed?</a></li><li><a href="#models" rel="nofollow">Climate model evaluation: which models can represent the extreme?</a></li><li><a href="#role" rel="nofollow">Climate model analysis: what part of the change is due to climate change?</a></li><li><a href="#overall" rel="nofollow">Hazard synthesis: what is the overall role of climate change?</a></li><li><a href="#exposure" rel="nofollow">Vulnerability and exposure: how important are other drivers of such disasters?</a></li><li><a href="#communicate" rel="nofollow">Communication: how do we talk about the results in a way that is understandable and true to the science?</a></li></ol> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="which"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. <strong>Which events do we attribute?</strong></h2> <p>The sheer size of the Earth means that extreme weather is typically occurring somewhere almost every day. So, which of these events merit an attribution study? </p> <p>At WWA, we try to prioritise events that have had <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/devastating-rains-in-kenya/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a large impact</a> or that have provoked a <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/bushfires-in-australia-2019-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">strong discussion in society</a>, so that the answers will be useful for a large audience. These are often events for which the Red Cross – a WWA partner – issues international appeals. </p> <p>On occasions, smaller events <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/uk-storm-desmond-revisited-december-2017/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">closer to home</a> or even meteorological records <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/north-pole-nov-dec-2016/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">that did not affect many people</a> also seem to generate enough interest to warrant assessment. <br>We explicitly do not include the expected influence of climate change on the event as the trigger criteria. A result that an event was <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/ethiopia-drought-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">not affected by climate change</a> – or even became less likely – is just as useful scientifically as one where the probability increased.</p> <div style="height:10px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="define"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. <strong>How to define an event?</strong></h2> <p>Defining the event turned out to be both much harder and more important than we initially thought. </p> <p>As an example: the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature03089" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">first published</a> extreme event attribution study analysed the European summer heatwave of 2003. It took as its event definition a European-wide seasonally averaged temperature, whereas the impacts had been <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/study-links-heatwave-deaths-london-paris-climate-change" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tens of thousands of deaths</a> in the 10-day hottest period in cities. We try, therefore, to define the events as close to the impacts as possible.</p> <p>It should be noted that, in practice, finding out what really happened during the event is not easy. An example is given in the figure below, which shows the very different estimates of the highest three-day rainfall around Houston due to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-tripled-chances-hurricane-harvey-record-rain" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hurricane Harvey</a> in 2017 from different observing systems.</p> <p>The radar analysis (c) is probably the most reliable option, but the dataset only goes back to 2005. The <a href="https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">CPC gridded analysis</a> (b) only uses stations that report in real time and therefore underestimates the event. The satellite analysis (d) diverges strongly from the others. Here, we chose the station data (a) as the most reliable dataset with a long time series – more than 100 years for many stations.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="888" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Observed-maximum-three-day-averaged-rainfall-over-coastal-Texas-for-January-September-2017.jpg" alt="Observed maximum three-day averaged rainfall over coastal Texas for January-September 2017" class="wp-image-37164" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Observed-maximum-three-day-averaged-rainfall-over-coastal-Texas-for-January-September-2017.jpg 1024w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Observed-maximum-three-day-averaged-rainfall-over-coastal-Texas-for-January-September-2017-300x260.jpg 300w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Observed-maximum-three-day-averaged-rainfall-over-coastal-Texas-for-January-September-2017-768x666.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Observed maximum three-day averaged rainfall over coastal Texas for January-September 2017 (mm/dy). a) GHCN-D v2 rain gauges, b) CPC 25 km analysis, c) NOAA calibrated radar (maximum in August 25–30), d) NASA GPM/IMERG satellite analysis. Source: van Oldenborgh et al. (<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-021-03071-7" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">2017</a>).</figcaption></figure> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="how"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>3. How extreme is the event now and in the past?</strong></h2> <p>The observed data we use is an essential part of an attribution assessment and gives us two pieces of information: how rare the event is in the current climate and how much this has changed over the observed record.</p> <p>The probability of the event in the current climate is very important to inform policymakers whether this is the kind of extreme that infrastructure should be able to handle or not. As an example, the floods that <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/96/12/bams-d-15-00128.1.xml" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">paralysed Jakarta in Indonesia in January 2014</a> turned out to be caused by a rainfall event with a “return period” – that is, how often an event of that size would be expected – of 4-13 years. </p> <p>This is an event that is not particularly rare, which suggests the city has a very high vulnerability to flooding.</p> <p>Conversely, <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/97/12/bams-d-16-0129.1.xml" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the floods in Chennai in December 2015</a> were caused by rainfall with an estimated return period of 600 to 2,500 years, which implies that the event might be too rare to expect defence mechanisms to hold out in such circumstances.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="684" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rescuers-evacuate-people-to-safe-places-in-Chennai-India.jpg" alt="Rescuers evacuate people to safe places in Chennai, India" class="wp-image-37166" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rescuers-evacuate-people-to-safe-places-in-Chennai-India.jpg 1024w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rescuers-evacuate-people-to-safe-places-in-Chennai-India-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rescuers-evacuate-people-to-safe-places-in-Chennai-India-270x180.jpg 270w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rescuers-evacuate-people-to-safe-places-in-Chennai-India-768x513.jpg 768w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rescuers-evacuate-people-to-safe-places-in-Chennai-India-107x71.jpg 107w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rescuers-evacuate-people-to-safe-places-in-Chennai-India-200x133.jpg 200w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Rescuers-evacuate-people-to-safe-places-in-Chennai-India-420x280.jpg 420w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Rescuers evacuate people to safe places in Chennai, India. Credit: Xinhua / Alamy Stock Photo.</figcaption></figure> <p>However, a warming climate means that types of events with historically very large return periods are being seen more frequently. This means that infrastructure that has been designed for the past climate may be overwhelmed more than expected.</p> <p>To compute how much the likelihood of the event has changed over the period with observations, we fit these to a mathematical function called an “extreme value distribution” that changes with global warming. This gives the change in probability and severity for an event as observed due to all influences, including global warming.</p> <div style="height:10px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="models"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>4. Which climate models are fit for purpose?</strong></h2> <p>Observations alone cannot be used to link – or “attribute” – a trend in extreme events to global warming (or natural influences on the climate). For this, we need <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">climate models</a>. </p> <p>Each individual climate model will have strengths and weaknesses and we can only use those that realistically simulate the extremes for the location we are investigating. </p> <p>In practice, we use the following three criteria to select a collection of climate models for the assessment:</p> <ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Can the model, in principle, represent extremes we are interested in?</li><li>Are the statistics of the modelled extreme events compatible with the statistics of the observed extremes?</li><li>Is the weather causing these extremes in the model similar to the observations?</li></ul> <p>As climate models are imperfect representations of reality, we demand at least two – and preferably more models – to be good enough for the attribution analysis in order to conduct a study.</p> <div style="height:10px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="role"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>5. What is the role of climate change?</strong></h2> <p>The next step is the actual attribution analysis. For each model, we compute how much more likely or intense the extreme event has become due to human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. </p> <p>This can be done in one of two ways. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/421891a" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">One method</a> is to run two sets of model simulations – one for the current climate and one for a “counterfactual” world without human influence on the climate. We can then identify how many extreme events match the one we are assessing in each set. The difference between the counts in both worlds gives how much more or less likely the extremes have become with global warming.</p> <p>The second method is to use existing simulations, such as the historical and future climate model runs from the global <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#cmip" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a>. These simulations can then be analysed in exactly the same way as the observations (see point 3). </p> <p>This means we can estimate whether there is a change in probability and severity because of potential drivers – such as climate change – but also land use changes or any other climate forcings the model includes. In the models, we know which forcings they contain (such as greenhouse gases and aerosols) and which they do not (for example, some local feedbacks) and we have a lot more data than in the observations.</p> <p>Under either method, this attribution step provides an estimate from each model for the change in likelihood for the extreme event as a result of climate change. Similarly, the approaches can quantify the change in intensity for an event of a particular probability.</p> <div style="height:10px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="overall"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>6. What is the overall role of climate change?</strong></h2> <p>The next step is to combine the information from the observations and multiple models into one overarching statement of how the probability and intensity of the physical extreme event – that is, the hazard – has changed.</p> <p>This is not trivial and requires estimates on how good we think the models are in describing the extremes. Part of that information can be derived from the spread of the models, but part has to be a judgment based on how realistic the extremes are simulated in the model.</p> <div style="height:10px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="exposure"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>7. Vulnerability and exposure</strong></h2> <p>A weather-related disaster happens due to a combination of three factors: a hazard (the meteorological extreme), exposure (the people in harm’s way) and vulnerability (how well people and ecosystems are able to cope with the hazard). </p> <p>As well as the hazard, we consider it essential to discuss the vulnerability and exposure in an attribution study. Not only do these combine with the changes in the physical extremes (computed in the previous steps) to determine the impact of the extreme weather, but they may have significant trends themselves.</p> <p>For example, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-not-a-major-influence-on-brazil-drought-study-says" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">our study</a> of the drought in São Paulo, Brazil in 2014-15 found that it had not been made more severe from climate change. However, our analysis showed that the increase of population of the city by roughly 20% in 20 years, and the even faster increase in per capita water usage, had not been addressed by appropriate updates in the storage and supply systems. </p> <p>Hence, in this case, the trends in vulnerability and exposure were the main driver of the significant water shortages in the city.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Residents-of-Sao-Paulo-receive-water-due-to-rationing-in-their-homes-during-a-record-drought.jpg" alt="Residents of Sao Paulo receive water due to rationing in their homes during a record drought" class="wp-image-37167" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Residents-of-Sao-Paulo-receive-water-due-to-rationing-in-their-homes-during-a-record-drought.jpg 1024w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Residents-of-Sao-Paulo-receive-water-due-to-rationing-in-their-homes-during-a-record-drought-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Residents-of-Sao-Paulo-receive-water-due-to-rationing-in-their-homes-during-a-record-drought-270x180.jpg 270w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Residents-of-Sao-Paulo-receive-water-due-to-rationing-in-their-homes-during-a-record-drought-768x512.jpg 768w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Residents-of-Sao-Paulo-receive-water-due-to-rationing-in-their-homes-during-a-record-drought-107x71.jpg 107w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Residents-of-Sao-Paulo-receive-water-due-to-rationing-in-their-homes-during-a-record-drought-200x133.jpg 200w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Residents-of-Sao-Paulo-receive-water-due-to-rationing-in-their-homes-during-a-record-drought-420x280.jpg 420w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Residents of Sao Paulo receive water due to rationing in their homes during a record drought. Credit: Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo.</figcaption></figure> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="communicate"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>8. How to communicate all these nuances?</strong></h2> <p>The final step is communicating the results to a range of audiences. This means explaining the findings in a scientifically accurate way that is also useful and understandable for the intended audience. </p> <p>We found three layers of communication are necessary, relating to three groups of users of the results of our studies: scientists; policymakers and emergency management agencies; and media outlets and the general public. </p> <div class="guten-block block-newsletter block-newsletter-block_609d453bb0040 "> <div class="container"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-xs-12"> <p class="title">Expert analysis direct to your inbox.</p> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 hidden-xs"> <p class="body" style="padding-top: 0.5em">Get a round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. Find out more about our newsletters <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up" style="text-decoration: underline;">here</a>.</p> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 visible-xs-block"> <p class="body" style="padding-top: 0.5em">Get a round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. Find out more about our newsletters <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up" style="text-decoration: underline;">here</a>.</p> </div> <div class="ml-embedded" data-form="W0jlyL"></div> </div>   </div> </div> <script data-cfasync="false" src="/cdn-cgi/scripts/5c5dd728/cloudflare-static/email-decode.min.js"></script><script> (function($) { // Daily brief, signup form switcher jQuery(".block-newsletter-block_609d453bb0040 #brief-type-block").change(function() { var dailyURL = "https://www.getrevue.co/profile/CarbonBriefDailyBriefing/add_subscriber"; var weeklyURL = "https://www.getrevue.co/profile/CarbonBriefWeeklyBriefing/add_subscriber"; var action = $(this).val() == "daily" ? dailyURL : weeklyURL; jQuery(".block-newsletter-block_609d453bb0040 #revueForm-block").attr("action", action); }); })(jQuery); </script> <p>In presenting results to the scientific community, we always publish a scientific report that documents the attribution study in sufficient detail for another scientist to be able to reproduce the results. If there are new methodological elements to the analysis, we also commit to submitting the study to a journal to undergo full peer-review.</p> <p>For policymakers, humanitarian aid workers and other non-scientific professional audiences, we found that the most effective way to communicate attribution findings in written form are briefing notes that summarise the key points from the physical science analysis, elaborate on the vulnerability and exposure context and then provide specific recommended next steps to increase resilience to this type of extreme event.</p> <p>Finally, to help reach the public via the media, we will typically prepare a press release and/or website news item that communicates the primary findings of the study. In addition to the physical science findings, these press releases typically provide a very brief, objective description of the non-physical science factors that contributed to the event.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Conclusions</strong></h2> <p>Over the past five years, we have found that the steps outlined above have allowed us to provide a robust message on how extreme events are – and are not – being influenced by climate change.</p> <p>And by reacting in a matter of days or weeks, we have been able to inform key audiences with a solid scientific result swiftly after an extreme event has occurred – when the interest is highest and results most relevant.</p> <p>The results of attribution studies are useful for informing risk reduction for future extreme events, and also for raising awareness about the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-to-assess-the-multiple-interacting-risks-of-climate-change" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">rising risks in a changing climate</a> and thus the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. </p> <p>Importantly, the results are relevant simply because the question is often asked – and if it is not answered scientifically, it will be answered unscientifically.</p> <div class="artInfo"> <i class="infoIcon"></i> <p>van Oldenborgh, G. J., et al. (2021) Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution, Climatic Change, <a href=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-021-03071-7>doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7</a></p> </div> <div class="artShareLine"> <div class="artDeTitle">Sharelines from this story</div> <ul>  <li> <div class="leftSLicon"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer?u=https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-lessons-learned-from-five-years-of-extreme-weather-rapid-attribution/&t=Guest post: Lessons learned from five years of extreme weather ‘rapid attribution’"><i class="fbArtIcon"></i></a> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Guest+post%3A+Lessons+learned+from+five+years+of+extreme+weather+%E2%80%98rapid+attribution%E2%80%99&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.carbonbrief.org%2Fguest-post-lessons-learned-from-five-years-of-extreme-weather-rapid-attribution%2F"><i class="twtrArtIcon"></i> </a> </div> <div class="slineR"> Guest post: Lessons learned from five years of extreme weather ‘rapid attribution’ </div> </li>  </ul> </div> <div class="artComm"> <div class="artDeTitle">Comments</div> <a href="#" class="viewAllComm">View Comments (<span class="disqus-comment-count" data-disqus-url="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-lessons-learned-from-five-years-of-extreme-weather-rapid-attribution/"><span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="37163 https://www.carbonbrief.org/?p=37163">0</span></span>)</a> <a href="#" class="hideAllComm">Close Comments</a> </div> <div id="commentcontainer"> <div id="disqus_thread"></div> </div>  </div> <aside class="article-aside" style="top: 91%"> <img width="270" height="180" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-270x180.jpg" class="attachment-medlisting size-medlisting wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-270x180.jpg 270w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-768x511.jpg 768w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-2048x1363.jpg 2048w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-107x71.jpg 107w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-200x133.jpg 200w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-420x280.jpg 420w" sizes="(max-width: 270px) 100vw, 270px" /> <div class="article-aside__text"> <h4> <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/" aria-label="Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world"> Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world</a> </h4> <small> <strong><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/category/science/extreme-weather/attribution/">Attribution</a></strong> <span>|</span> 18.11.2024 </small> </div> </aside> </div> <div class="container-fluid text-center">   <div class="block-newsletter static-template block-newsletter-6747cbfbe8ace"> <div class="container"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-xs-12"> <p class="title">Expert analysis direct to your inbox.</p> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 hidden-xs"> <p class="body" style="padding-top: 0.5em">Get a round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. 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