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aria-label="home icon"><span class="sffed-home-icon"><svg width="13" height="12" viewBox="0 0 13 12" fill="currentColor" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><title>Home</title><path d="M12.9998 5.85366L6.49992 0L0 5.85366L0.000164297 5.85381V12.0001H13V5.85372H12.9998L12.9998 5.85366Z"></path></svg></span></a><span class="wp-block-sffed-blocks-sffed-breadcrumbs--separator">/</span></li><li><a class="sffed-breadcrumbs__link" href="/research-and-insights/">Research and Insights</a><span class="wp-block-sffed-blocks-sffed-breadcrumbs--separator">/</span><li><a class="sffed-breadcrumbs__link" href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications">Publications</a></li></ol></nav> <h1 style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);" class="wp-block-query-title">Economic Letter</h1> <div class="wp-block-group"> <figure class="wp-block-post-featured-image has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained" style="text-align: center;padding:0"> </figure> </div> <div class="wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-14 has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-columns-is-layout-constrained"> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="flex-basis:20%"> </div> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="flex-basis:60%"> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);" class="wp-block-term-description"><p>Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.</p> </div> <div class="wp-block-query alignwide wp-block-query-"> <ul class="alignwide wp-block-post-template is-layout-flow wp-block-post-template-is-layout-flow"><li class="wp-block-post post-138125 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-economic-letter tag-economic-research tag-employment-and-unemployment tag-inflation tag-inflation-cyclicality tag-labor-markets tag-labor-turnover tag-macroeconomics tag-monetary-policy tag-publications-economic-letter tag-u-s-economy business-lines-economic-research people-associated-adam-shapiro people-associated-regis-barnichon publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-employment-rates topics-type-inflation topics-type-inflation-cyclicality topics-type-labor-markets topics-type-labor-turnover topics-type-macroeconomics topics-type-monetary-policy topics-type-us-economy"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/11/how-much-has-cooling-economy-reduced-inflation" target="_self" >How Much Has the Cooling Economy Reduced Inflation?</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-30</span> <p><p><span>Regis Barnichon</span>, <span>Adam Shapiro</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-11-18T10:00:00-08:00">November 18, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to unemployed workers and of vacancies to effective job seekers—are particularly informative in determining excess demand’s impact on recent inflation. The measures suggest that declines in excess demand pushed inflation down almost three-quarters of a percentage point over the past two years. However, elevated demand continued to contribute 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to inflation as of September 2024. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-137967 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-economic-letter tag-economic-research tag-fomc tag-hamza-abdelrahman tag-inflation tag-inflation-expectations tag-kevin-j-lansing tag-luiz-oliveira tag-monetary-policy tag-publications-economic-letter tag-u-s-economy business-lines-economic-research people-associated-hamza-abdelrahman people-associated-kevin-lansing people-associated-luiz-oliveira publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-fomc topics-type-inflation topics-type-inflation-expectations topics-type-monetary-policy topics-type-us-economy"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/11/examining-performance-of-fomc-inflation-forecasts" target="_self" >Examining the Performance of FOMC Inflation Forecasts</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-29</span> <p><p><span>Hamza Abdelrahman</span>, <span>Luiz Edgard Oliveira</span>, <span>Kevin J. Lansing</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-11-12T10:00:00-08:00">November 12, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">Calendar-year inflation forecasts from Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants typically start near 2% and then are revised in response to incoming data. Before the pandemic when actual inflation was mostly below 2%, participants consistently lowered their forecasts over time. From 2021 onward when inflation surged to 40-year highs, participants consistently raised their forecasts over time. In both periods, cumulative forecast revisions help predict the size of subsequent forecast errors. This implies that the typical inflation forecast was slow to adjust to new information that could have improved forecast accuracy. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-133725 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-economic-research tag-mary-c-daly tag-publications-economic-letter business-lines-economic-research people-associated-mary-c-daly publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-economic-inclusion topics-type-inflation topics-type-inflation-cyclicality topics-type-inflation-expectations topics-type-labor-markets topics-type-monetary-policy topics-type-us-economy"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/10/landing-softly-is-just-the-beginning" target="_self" >Landing Softly Is Just the Beginning</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-28</span> <p><p><span>Mary C. Daly</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-10-21T10:00:00-07:00">October 21, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">The economy has significantly improved from just two years ago. Inflation has fallen substantially, and the labor market has returned to a more sustainable path. A soft landing is achievable, and the Fed is resolute to finish the job. But looking ahead, we should strive for a durable and sustained expansion that helps all Americans. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the New York University Stern School of Business in New York City on October 15. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-133532 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-economic-research tag-global-economy tag-inflation tag-publications-economic-letter tag-u-s-economy business-lines-economic-research people-associated-aditi-poduri people-associated-fernanda-nechio people-associated-oscar-jorda people-associated-river-bell people-associated-stephanie-stewart publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-global-economy topics-type-inflation topics-type-us-economy"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/10/international-influences-on-united-states-inflation" target="_self" >International Influences on U.S. Inflation</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-27</span> <p><p><span>River Bell</span>, <span>Oscar Jorda</span>, <span>Fernanda Nechio</span>, <span>Aditi Poduri</span>, <span>Stephanie Stewart</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-10-15T10:00:00-07:00">October 15, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">The COVID-19 inflation surge experienced abroad undoubtedly left its mark on U.S. inflation. As global economies return to business as usual, it is natural to ask whether international considerations continue to affect U.S. inflation. Recent analysis shows that, although in normal times the international component of U.S. inflation is usually small, at other times it can contribute significantly to U.S. inflation dynamics. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-129400 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-business-cycles tag-economic-research tag-employment-unemployment tag-growth-productivity tag-labor-markets tag-publications-economic-letter tag-u-s-economy business-lines-economic-research people-associated-brandon-miskanic people-associated-marianna-kudlyak publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-business-cycles topics-type-employment-rates topics-type-growth-productivity topics-type-labor-markets topics-type-us-economy"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/10/job-vacancies-and-firms-labor-market-perceptions" target="_self" >Job Vacancies and Firms’ Labor Market Perceptions</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-26</span> <p><p><span>Marianna Kudlyak</span>, <span>Brandon Miskanic</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-10-07T10:00:00-07:00">October 7, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">During the post-pandemic period, the vacancy-unemployment ratio was at historically high levels, but the strength of overall labor demand was unclear. Analysis using data from the National Federation of Independent Business on firms’ perceptions of the labor market confirms that during that time firms perceived the labor market as being unusually tight relative to historical norms. As of June-August 2024, however, both firms’ perceptions and measures of labor market tightness had returned to their 2019 levels. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-123940 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-business-cycles tag-economic-letter tag-economic-research tag-employment-unemployment tag-growth-productivity tag-labor-markets tag-publications-economic-letter tag-u-s-economy business-lines-economic-research people-associated-brandon-miskanic people-associated-marianna-kudlyak publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-business-cycles topics-type-employment-rates topics-type-growth-productivity topics-type-labor-markets topics-type-us-economy"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/09/how-aware-is-public-of-labor-market-conditions" target="_self" >How Aware Is the Public of Labor Market Conditions?</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-25</span> <p><p><span>Marianna Kudlyak</span>, <span>Brandon Miskanic</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-09-30T10:00:00-07:00">September 30, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">Consumers’ perceptions of labor market conditions have historically aligned closely with the unemployment rate. However, the two diverged during the pandemic, when the unemployment rate spiked while people’s views of the labor market remained more positive. This raises the question of whether public perceptions around the labor market have become untethered from the data. Measuring labor market conditions using the jobless unemployment rate, which excludes temporary layoffs, suggests this is not the case: the historical link between people’s perceptions and measured labor market conditions has remained strong. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-123783 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-economic-research tag-emerging-markets tag-global-economy tag-global-macroeconomy tag-global-markets tag-publications-economic-letter business-lines-economic-research people-associated-arthur-mendes people-associated-leo-feler people-associated-steven-pennings people-associated-thuy-lan-nguyen people-associated-wataru-miyamoto publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-emerging-markets topics-type-global-economy topics-type-global-financial-markets topics-type-global-macroeconomics"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/09/macroeconomic-impact-of-cash-transfers-in-brazil" target="_self" >The Macroeconomic Impact of Cash Transfers in Brazil</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-24</span> <p><p><span>Arthur Mendes</span>, <span>Wataru Miyamoto</span>, <span>Thuy Lan Nguyen</span>, <span>Steven Pennings</span>, <span>Leo Feler</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-09-23T10:00:00-07:00">September 23, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">Cash transfers are important fiscal policy tools for both advanced and developing countries. A study of one of the world’s largest cash transfer programs—Brazil’s Bolsa Familia—highlights the potentially large, positive, and persistent effects on the regional economy. Estimates using 2004-2019 data show that Brazilian states receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grew at least 2 percentage points faster in the first year. The transfers generate substantial increases in regional formal and informal employment. These effects are larger than those documented in advanced countries like the United States. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-119492 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-aren-s-yalcin tag-economic-research tag-housing-and-real-estate tag-housing-inflation tag-inflation tag-oscar-jorda tag-publications-economic-letter tag-residential-real-estate tag-services-inflation business-lines-economic-research people-associated-aren-s-yalcin people-associated-oscar-jorda publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-housing-real-estate topics-type-housing-inflation topics-type-inflation topics-type-residential-real-estate topics-type-services-inflation"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/09/when-is-shelter-services-inflation-coming-down" target="_self" >When Is Shelter Services Inflation Coming Down?</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-23</span> <p><p><span>Òscar Jordà</span>, <span>Aren S. Yalcin</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-09-03T10:00:00-07:00">September 3, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">Shelter costs are one of the largest expenses for most households and an important component of overall inflation. It is therefore important to understand why shelter costs have remained stubbornly high. A key explanation is that, especially since the pandemic, demand for housing has been growing faster than new units have come into the market. Using the gap between the demand for and supply of housing along with other leading indicators of shelter prices can help assess whether shelter inflation will continue on a path toward historically normal levels. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-119358 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-climate-resilience tag-economic-research tag-fernanda-nichio tag-housing-and-real-estate tag-leila-bengali tag-publications-economic-letter tag-residential-real-estate tag-stephanie-stewart business-lines-economic-research people-associated-fernanda-nechio people-associated-leila-bengali people-associated-stephanie-a-stewart publication-type-economic-letter regions-type-california topics-type-climate-resilience topics-type-housing-real-estate topics-type-residential-real-estate"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/08/wildfires-and-real-estate-values-in-california" target="_self" >Wildfires and Real Estate Values in California</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-22</span> <p><p><span>Leila Bengali</span>, <span>Fernanda Nechio</span>, <span>Stephanie A. Stewart</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-08-26T10:00:00-07:00">August 26, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis shows that distance from high fire-risk zones had little impact on residential housing values in the past. However, that has changed since the late 2010s, coinciding with more extensive fire damage to land and structures across the state. Insurance availability appears to help little in preserving home values in areas that are considered more at risk. </p></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-119003 sffed_publications type-sffed_publications status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-cmore tag-consumer-spending tag-covid-19-pandemic tag-economic-inclusion tag-economic-research tag-publications-economic-letter tag-u-s-economy business-lines-economic-research people-associated-adam-shapiro people-associated-hamza-abdelrahman people-associated-luiz-oliveira publication-type-economic-letter topics-type-consumer-spending topics-type-covid-19-pandemic topics-type-economic-inclusion topics-type-us-economy"> <h2 class="wp-block-post-title has-medium-font-size"><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/08/pandemic-era-liquid-wealth-is-running-dry" target="_self" >Pandemic-Era Liquid Wealth Is Running Dry</a></h2> <span class="sffed-meta-kicker">2024</span><span class="sffed-meta-kicker">-21</span> <p><p><span>Hamza Abdelrahman</span>, <span>Luiz Edgard Oliveira</span>, <span>Adam Shapiro</span></p> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-date"><time datetime="2024-08-12T10:00:00-07:00">August 12, 2024</time></div> <div style="margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);" class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt">Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed significantly by income group. While middle- and lower-income households hold substantially less liquid wealth than implied by pre-pandemic projections, the level for higher-income households remains close to its pre-pandemic path. Over the same period, credit card delinquency rates initially dropped and, more recently, have steadily risen as pandemic-era liquid wealth was depleted, especially for middle- and lower-income households. </p></div> </li></ul> <nav class="wp-block-query-pagination is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-query-pagination-is-layout-1 wp-block-query-pagination-is-layout-flex" aria-label="Pagination"> <div class="wp-block-query-pagination-numbers"><span aria-current="page" class="page-numbers current">1</span> <a class="page-numbers" href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/page/2/">2</a> <a class="page-numbers" href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/page/3/">3</a> <span class="page-numbers dots">…</span> <a class="page-numbers" href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/page/105/">105</a></div> <a 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