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<div class="control is-expanded"> <label for="query" class="hidden-label">Search term or terms</label> <input class="input is-medium" id="query" name="query" placeholder="Search term..." type="text" value="Erdely, A"> </div> <div class="select control is-medium"> <label class="is-hidden" for="searchtype">Field</label> <select class="is-medium" id="searchtype" name="searchtype"><option value="all">All fields</option><option value="title">Title</option><option selected value="author">Author(s)</option><option value="abstract">Abstract</option><option value="comments">Comments</option><option value="journal_ref">Journal reference</option><option value="acm_class">ACM classification</option><option value="msc_class">MSC classification</option><option value="report_num">Report number</option><option value="paper_id">arXiv identifier</option><option value="doi">DOI</option><option value="orcid">ORCID</option><option value="license">License (URI)</option><option value="author_id">arXiv author 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name="searchtype"><option value="all">All fields</option><option value="title">Title</option><option selected value="author">Author(s)</option><option value="abstract">Abstract</option><option value="comments">Comments</option><option value="journal_ref">Journal reference</option><option value="acm_class">ACM classification</option><option value="msc_class">MSC classification</option><option value="report_num">Report number</option><option value="paper_id">arXiv identifier</option><option value="doi">DOI</option><option value="orcid">ORCID</option><option value="license">License (URI)</option><option value="author_id">arXiv author ID</option><option value="help">Help pages</option><option value="full_text">Full text</option></select> <input id="query" name="query" type="text" value="Erdely, A"> <ul id="abstracts"><li><input checked id="abstracts-0" name="abstracts" type="radio" value="show"> <label for="abstracts-0">Show abstracts</label></li><li><input id="abstracts-1" name="abstracts" type="radio" value="hide"> <label for="abstracts-1">Hide abstracts</label></li></ul> </div> <div class="box field is-grouped is-grouped-multiline level-item"> <div class="control"> <span class="select is-small"> <select id="size" name="size"><option value="25">25</option><option selected value="50">50</option><option value="100">100</option><option value="200">200</option></select> </span> <label for="size">results per page</label>. </div> <div class="control"> <label for="order">Sort results by</label> <span class="select is-small"> <select id="order" name="order"><option selected value="-announced_date_first">Announcement date (newest first)</option><option value="announced_date_first">Announcement date (oldest first)</option><option value="-submitted_date">Submission date (newest first)</option><option value="submitted_date">Submission date (oldest first)</option><option value="">Relevance</option></select> </span> </div> <div class="control"> <button class="button is-small is-link">Go</button> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <ol class="breathe-horizontal" start="1"> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.01133">arXiv:2410.01133</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.01133">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2410.01133">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Methodology">stat.ME</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A subcopula characterization of dependence for the Multivariate Bernoulli Distribution </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2410.01133v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> By applying Sklar's theorem to the Multivariate Bernoulli Distribution (MBD), it is proposed a framework that decouples the marginal distributions from the dependence structure, providing a clearer understanding of how binary variables interact. Explicit formulas are derived under the MBD using subcopulas to introduce dependence measures for interactions of all orders, not just pairwise. A bayesia… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2410.01133v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2410.01133v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2410.01133v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> By applying Sklar's theorem to the Multivariate Bernoulli Distribution (MBD), it is proposed a framework that decouples the marginal distributions from the dependence structure, providing a clearer understanding of how binary variables interact. Explicit formulas are derived under the MBD using subcopulas to introduce dependence measures for interactions of all orders, not just pairwise. A bayesian inference approach is also applied to estimate the parameters of the MBD, offering practical tools for parameter estimation and dependence analysis in real-world applications. The results obtained contribute to the application of subcopulas of multivariate binary data, with a real data example of comorbidities in COVID-19 patients. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2410.01133v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2410.01133v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 1 October, 2024; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> October 2024. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">21 pages, 2 figures, 1 table</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62H05 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.00820">arXiv:2404.00820</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.00820">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/2404.00820">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2404.00820">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Methodology">stat.ME</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Visual analysis of bivariate dependence between continuous random variables </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a>, <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Rubio-Sanchez%2C+M">Manuel Rubio-Sanchez</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2404.00820v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Scatter plots are widely recognized as fundamental tools for illustrating the relationship between two numerical variables. Despite this, based on solid theoretical foundations, scatter plots generated from pairs of continuous random variables may not serve as reliable tools for assessing dependence. Sklar's Theorem implies that scatter plots created from ranked data are preferable for such analys… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2404.00820v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2404.00820v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2404.00820v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Scatter plots are widely recognized as fundamental tools for illustrating the relationship between two numerical variables. Despite this, based on solid theoretical foundations, scatter plots generated from pairs of continuous random variables may not serve as reliable tools for assessing dependence. Sklar's Theorem implies that scatter plots created from ranked data are preferable for such analysis as they exclusively convey information pertinent to dependence. This is in stark contrast to conventional scatter plots, which also encapsulate information about the variables' marginal distributions. Such additional information is extraneous to dependence analysis and can obscure the visual interpretation of the variables' relationship. In this article, we delve into the theoretical underpinnings of these ranked data scatter plots, hereafter referred to as rank plots. We offer insights into interpreting the information they reveal and examine their connections with various association measures, including Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients, as well as Schweizer-Wolff's measure of dependence. Furthermore, we introduce a novel graphical combination for dependence analysis, termed a dplot, and demonstrate its efficacy through real data examples. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2404.00820v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2404.00820v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 3 February, 2025; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 31 March, 2024; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> April 2024. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">10 pages, 11 figures, 1 table</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62P99 <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">ACM Class:</span> G.3 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.15483">arXiv:2311.15483</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.15483">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2311.15483">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Applications">stat.AP</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A polynomial regression model for excess mortality in Mexico 2020-2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Comas-Garc%C3%ADa%2C+A">Andreu Comas-Garc铆a</a>, <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2311.15483v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020-2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only, using a polynomial regression model. The results obtained estimate that the excess mortality is around 788,000 people (39.3%) equivalently to a rate of 626 per 1… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2311.15483v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2311.15483v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2311.15483v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020-2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only, using a polynomial regression model. The results obtained estimate that the excess mortality is around 788,000 people (39.3%) equivalently to a rate of 626 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male/female ratio is estimated to be 1.7 times. As a reference for comparison, for the whole period 2020-2020 Mexico's INEGI estimated an excess of mortality between 673,000 with a quasi-Poisson model and 808,000 using endemic channels estimation. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2311.15483v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2311.15483v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 10 December, 2023; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 26 November, 2023; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> November 2023. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">23 pages, 4 figures, 6 tables</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62P10 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.06601">arXiv:2309.06601</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.06601">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/2309.06601">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2309.06601">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Other Statistics">stat.OT</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Monograf铆a de Estad铆stica Bayesiana </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a>, <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Guti%C3%A9rrez-Pe%C3%B1a%2C+E">Eduardo Guti茅rrez-Pe帽a</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2309.06601v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Course notes about an introduction to Bayesian Statistics. First, an explanation of the bayesian paradigm is motivated and explained in detail (first three chapters). Then, a brief introduction to the basics about Decision Theory in chapter four, which is self contained, with the purpose of introducing parametrica bayesian inference as a decision problem in chapter five. </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2309.06601v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Course notes about an introduction to Bayesian Statistics. First, an explanation of the bayesian paradigm is motivated and explained in detail (first three chapters). Then, a brief introduction to the basics about Decision Theory in chapter four, which is self contained, with the purpose of introducing parametrica bayesian inference as a decision problem in chapter five. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2309.06601v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2309.06601v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 12 September, 2023; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> September 2023. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">104 pages (in Spanish)</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62-02 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.00265">arXiv:2204.00265</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.00265">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/2204.00265">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2204.00265">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Applications">stat.AP</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Copula-based statistical dependence visualizations </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a>, <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Rubio-Sanchez%2C+M">Manuel Rubio-Sanchez</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2204.00265v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> A frequent task in exploratory data analysis consists in examining pairwise dependencies between data variables. Popular approaches include visualizing correlation or scatter plot matrices. However, both methods can be misleading. The former is primarily limited because it reports a single value for a pair of random variables. Furthermore, scatter plots can fail to convey the dependency structure… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2204.00265v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2204.00265v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2204.00265v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> A frequent task in exploratory data analysis consists in examining pairwise dependencies between data variables. Popular approaches include visualizing correlation or scatter plot matrices. However, both methods can be misleading. The former is primarily limited because it reports a single value for a pair of random variables. Furthermore, scatter plots can fail to convey the dependency structure between variables properly. In this paper we discuss these shortcomings and present alternative and richer visualizations based on copula functions, which fully determine the dependency between continuous random variables. Since copulas seldom appear in the data visualization literature we first review essential theory, and propose alternative scatter plots and several heatmaps for assessing the statistical association between two continuous random variables. These visualizations not only allow users to detect independence, but also increasing and/or decreasing trends in the data through a color coding, which can also be applied in other methods such as parallel coordinates. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2204.00265v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2204.00265v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 1 April, 2022; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> April 2022. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">10 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62P99 <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">ACM Class:</span> G.3 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.01559">arXiv:1901.01559</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.01559">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1901.01559">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Applications">stat.AP</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A copula based approach for electoral quick counts </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1901.01559v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> An electoral quick count is a statistical procedure whose main objective is to obtain a relatively small but representative sample of all the polling stations in a certain election, and to measure the uncertainty about the final result before the total count of votes. A stratified sampling design is commonly preferred to reduce estimation variability. The present work shows that dependence among s… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1901.01559v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1901.01559v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1901.01559v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> An electoral quick count is a statistical procedure whose main objective is to obtain a relatively small but representative sample of all the polling stations in a certain election, and to measure the uncertainty about the final result before the total count of votes. A stratified sampling design is commonly preferred to reduce estimation variability. The present work shows that dependence among strata and among candidates should be taken into consideration for statistical inferences therein, and a copula based model is proposed and applied to Mexico's 2006, 2012, and 2018 presidential elections data. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1901.01559v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1901.01559v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 6 January, 2019; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> January 2019. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">12 pages, 3 tables</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62D05; 62P25 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08968">arXiv:1805.08968</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.08968">pdf</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Applications">stat.AP</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> An谩lisis estad铆stico ex post del conteo r谩pido institucional de la elecci贸n de gobernador del Estado de M茅xico en 2017 </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1805.08968v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> A statistical analysis of an electoral quick count based on the total count of votes in the election of the State of Mexico's governor in 2017 is performed in order to verify precision, confidence level of interval estimations, possible bias and derived conclusions therein, with the main purpose of checking compliance with the objectives of such statistical procedure. ----- Se realiza un an谩li… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1805.08968v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1805.08968v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1805.08968v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> A statistical analysis of an electoral quick count based on the total count of votes in the election of the State of Mexico's governor in 2017 is performed in order to verify precision, confidence level of interval estimations, possible bias and derived conclusions therein, with the main purpose of checking compliance with the objectives of such statistical procedure. ----- Se realiza un an谩lisis estad铆stico de las estimaciones del conteo r谩pido institucional desde la perspectiva ideal de los resultados de los c贸mputos distritales de la elecci贸n de gobernador del Estado de M茅xico del a帽o 2017, particularmente aspectos como la precisi贸n de las estimaciones, el nivel de confianza de los intervalos, el posible sesgo respecto al c贸mputo distrital y las conclusiones que se derivaron y reportaron, con el objetivo de determinar el grado de cumplimiento de los objetivos de este ejercicio estad铆stico de car谩cter informativo. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1805.08968v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1805.08968v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 1 February, 2019; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 23 May, 2018; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> May 2018. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">16 pages, 6 tables, 2 figures, in Spanish</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62D05; 62P25 </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Journal ref:</span> Apuntes Electorales 60, 207-242. ISSN 1665-0921 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1801.06757">arXiv:1801.06757</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.06757">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1801.06757">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Applications">stat.AP</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> La falacia del empate t茅cnico electoral </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1801.06757v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> It is argued that the concept of "technical tie" in electoral polls and quick counts has no probabilistic basis, and that instead the uncertainty associated with these statistical exercises should be expressed in terms of a probability of victory of the leading candidate. ----- Se argumenta que el concepto de "empate t茅cnico" en encuestas y conteos r谩pidos electorales no tiene fundamento proba… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1801.06757v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1801.06757v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1801.06757v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> It is argued that the concept of "technical tie" in electoral polls and quick counts has no probabilistic basis, and that instead the uncertainty associated with these statistical exercises should be expressed in terms of a probability of victory of the leading candidate. ----- Se argumenta que el concepto de "empate t茅cnico" en encuestas y conteos r谩pidos electorales no tiene fundamento probabil铆stico, y que en su lugar la incertidumbre asociada a dichos ejercicios estad铆sticos debiera expresarse en t茅rminos de una probabilidad de triunfo del candidato puntero. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1801.06757v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1801.06757v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 28 January, 2018; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 20 January, 2018; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> January 2018. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">22 pages, 8 figures, in Spanish</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62P25 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.05829">arXiv:1702.05829</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1702.05829">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1702.05829">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Methodology">stat.ME</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Copula-based piecewise regression </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1702.05829v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Most common parametric families of copulas are totally ordered, and in many cases they are also positively or negatively regression dependent and therefore they lead to monotone regression functions, which makes them not suitable for dependence relationships that imply or suggest a non-monotone regression function. A gluing copula approach is proposed to decompose the underlying copula into totall… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1702.05829v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1702.05829v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1702.05829v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Most common parametric families of copulas are totally ordered, and in many cases they are also positively or negatively regression dependent and therefore they lead to monotone regression functions, which makes them not suitable for dependence relationships that imply or suggest a non-monotone regression function. A gluing copula approach is proposed to decompose the underlying copula into totally ordered copulas that combined may lead to a non-monotone regression function. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1702.05829v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1702.05829v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 25 February, 2017; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 19 February, 2017; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> February 2017. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">12 pages, 4 figures</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62J02; 62H20 </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.08036">arXiv:1509.08036</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.08036">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1509.08036">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Methodology">stat.ME</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Backtesting forecast accuracy </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/stat?searchtype=author&query=Erdely%2C+A">Arturo Erdely</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1509.08036v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> A statistical test based on the geometric mean is proposed to determine if a predictive model should be rejected or not, when the quantity of interest is a strictly positive continuous random variable. A simulation study is performed to compare test power performance against an alternative procedure, and an application to insurance claims reserving is illustrated. </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1509.08036v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> A statistical test based on the geometric mean is proposed to determine if a predictive model should be rejected or not, when the quantity of interest is a strictly positive continuous random variable. A simulation study is performed to compare test power performance against an alternative procedure, and an application to insurance claims reserving is illustrated. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1509.08036v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1509.08036v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 26 October, 2015; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 26 September, 2015; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> September 2015. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">10 pages, 5 figures, 1 table</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">MSC Class:</span> 62-F03; 62-P05; 62P20 </p> </li> </ol> <div class="is-hidden-tablet">  <span class="help" style="display: inline-block;"><a href="https://github.com/arXiv/arxiv-search/releases">Search v0.5.6 released 2020-02-24</a>  </span> </div> </div> </main> <footer> <div class="columns is-desktop" role="navigation" aria-label="Secondary">  <div class="column"> <div class="columns"> <div class="column"> <ul class="nav-spaced"> <li><a href="https://info.arxiv.org/about">About</a></li> <li><a href="https://info.arxiv.org/help">Help</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="column"> <ul class="nav-spaced"> <li> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512" class="icon filter-black" role="presentation"><title>contact arXiv</title><desc>Click here to contact arXiv</desc><path d="M502.3 190.8c3.9-3.1 9.7-.2 9.7 4.7V400c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V195.6c0-5 5.7-7.8 9.7-4.7 22.4 17.4 52.1 39.5 154.1 113.6 21.1 15.4 56.7 47.8 92.2 47.6 35.7.3 72-32.8 92.3-47.6 102-74.1 131.6-96.3 154-113.7zM256 320c23.2.4 56.6-29.2 73.4-41.4 132.7-96.3 142.8-104.7 173.4-128.7 5.8-4.5 9.2-11.5 9.2-18.9v-19c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v19c0 7.4 3.4 14.3 9.2 18.9 30.6 23.9 40.7 32.4 173.4 128.7 16.8 12.2 50.2 41.8 73.4 41.4z"/></svg> <a href="https://info.arxiv.org/help/contact.html"> Contact</a> </li> <li> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512" class="icon filter-black" role="presentation"><title>subscribe to arXiv mailings</title><desc>Click here to subscribe</desc><path d="M476 3.2L12.5 270.6c-18.1 10.4-15.8 35.6 2.2 43.2L121 358.4l287.3-253.2c5.5-4.9 13.3 2.6 8.6 8.3L176 407v80.5c0 23.6 28.5 32.9 42.5 15.8L282 426l124.6 52.2c14.2 6 30.4-2.9 33-18.2l72-432C515 7.8 493.3-6.8 476 3.2z"/></svg> <a href="https://info.arxiv.org/help/subscribe"> Subscribe</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div>   <div class="column"> <div class="columns"> <div class="column"> <ul class="nav-spaced"> <li><a href="https://info.arxiv.org/help/license/index.html">Copyright</a></li> <li><a href="https://info.arxiv.org/help/policies/privacy_policy.html">Privacy Policy</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="column sorry-app-links"> <ul class="nav-spaced"> <li><a href="https://info.arxiv.org/help/web_accessibility.html">Web Accessibility Assistance</a></li> <li> <p class="help"> <a class="a11y-main-link" href="https://status.arxiv.org" target="_blank">arXiv Operational Status <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 256 512" class="icon filter-dark_grey" role="presentation"><path d="M224.3 273l-136 136c-9.4 9.4-24.6 9.4-33.9 0l-22.6-22.6c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9l96.4-96.4-96.4-96.4c-9.4-9.4-9.4-24.6 0-33.9L54.3 103c9.4-9.4 24.6-9.4 33.9 0l136 136c9.5 9.4 9.5 24.6.1 34z"/></svg></a><br> Get status notifications via <a class="is-link" href="https://subscribe.sorryapp.com/24846f03/email/new" target="_blank"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 512 512" class="icon filter-black" role="presentation"><path d="M502.3 190.8c3.9-3.1 9.7-.2 9.7 4.7V400c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V195.6c0-5 5.7-7.8 9.7-4.7 22.4 17.4 52.1 39.5 154.1 113.6 21.1 15.4 56.7 47.8 92.2 47.6 35.7.3 72-32.8 92.3-47.6 102-74.1 131.6-96.3 154-113.7zM256 320c23.2.4 56.6-29.2 73.4-41.4 132.7-96.3 142.8-104.7 173.4-128.7 5.8-4.5 9.2-11.5 9.2-18.9v-19c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v19c0 7.4 3.4 14.3 9.2 18.9 30.6 23.9 40.7 32.4 173.4 128.7 16.8 12.2 50.2 41.8 73.4 41.4z"/></svg>email</a> or <a class="is-link" href="https://subscribe.sorryapp.com/24846f03/slack/new" target="_blank"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 448 512" class="icon filter-black" role="presentation"><path d="M94.12 315.1c0 25.9-21.16 47.06-47.06 47.06S0 341 0 315.1c0-25.9 21.16-47.06 47.06-47.06h47.06v47.06zm23.72 0c0-25.9 21.16-47.06 47.06-47.06s47.06 21.16 47.06 47.06v117.84c0 25.9-21.16 47.06-47.06 47.06s-47.06-21.16-47.06-47.06V315.1zm47.06-188.98c-25.9 0-47.06-21.16-47.06-47.06S139 32 164.9 32s47.06 21.16 47.06 47.06v47.06H164.9zm0 23.72c25.9 0 47.06 21.16 47.06 47.06s-21.16 47.06-47.06 47.06H47.06C21.16 243.96 0 222.8 0 196.9s21.16-47.06 47.06-47.06H164.9zm188.98 47.06c0-25.9 21.16-47.06 47.06-47.06 25.9 0 47.06 21.16 47.06 47.06s-21.16 47.06-47.06 47.06h-47.06V196.9zm-23.72 0c0 25.9-21.16 47.06-47.06 47.06-25.9 0-47.06-21.16-47.06-47.06V79.06c0-25.9 21.16-47.06 47.06-47.06 25.9 0 47.06 21.16 47.06 47.06V196.9zM283.1 385.88c25.9 0 47.06 21.16 47.06 47.06 0 25.9-21.16 47.06-47.06 47.06-25.9 0-47.06-21.16-47.06-47.06v-47.06h47.06zm0-23.72c-25.9 0-47.06-21.16-47.06-47.06 0-25.9 21.16-47.06 47.06-47.06h117.84c25.9 0 47.06 21.16 47.06 47.06 0 25.9-21.16 47.06-47.06 47.06H283.1z"/></svg>slack</a> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div>  </div> </footer> <script src="https://static.arxiv.org/static/base/1.0.0a5/js/member_acknowledgement.js"></script> </body> </html>

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