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class="FeatureCarousel_teaserWrapper__1z2Bi"><p class="fs18">On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.</p></div></div><a class="FeatureCarousel_analysisBtn__ig6Hb fs18" href="article/thanksgiving-and-puritan-geopolitics-americas-1">Read More</a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="FeatureCarousel_featuredQueue__2-B3a clearfix"><div class="FeatureCarousel_tabWrapper__3Axwr"><ul><li style="touch-action:none" class=" FeatureCarousel_featuredTitle__314-P FeatureCarousel_activeFeature__340Dy FeatureCarousel_wrapWidth4__XPcfX fs18 headline "><p><a href="article/thanksgiving-and-puritan-geopolitics-americas-1">Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas</a></p></li><li style="touch-action:none" class=" FeatureCarousel_featuredTitle__314-P FeatureCarousel_wrapWidth4__XPcfX fs18 headline "><p><a href="article/gulf-states-work-avoid-major-escalation-yemen-s-houthis">Gulf States 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" title="(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. 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data-sizes="(min-width: 320px) 100w, (min-width: 768px) 100w, (min-width: 1024px) 100w, 100vw" class="undefined img"/></div><div class="ContentTemplate_bgGradient__20vaC"></div><div class="ContentTemplate_contentCard__2ur7q"><span class="ContentTemplate_articleType__36Zhs">Assessments</span><span class="ContentTemplate_dateCard__1cm7L">Nov 21, 2024 </span></div><div class="ContentTemplate_titleWrapper__3wNTK"><div class="ContentTemplate_title__sBxv9">The Geopolitics of Water: India's Groundwater Crisis</div></div><div class="ContentTemplate_authorBlock__3Zb-i"></div><div class="ContentTemplate_cardBottomBorder__18J6x"></div></a><a class="ContentTemplate_ContentGrid__2kPnW ContentTemplate_withImage__3QMQT " href="/article/us-naval-update-map-nov-21-2024"><div class="ContentTemplate_imageContainer__1ohBX"><img alt="Naval Map Update" title="" src="https://worldview.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/square_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=YdPFlC5z" 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In Context." src="/images/wv/logo-rane-worldview-footer.png"/></div></div></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"latestData":{"highlighted":[{"nid":"339707","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas","promo_image":{"uri":"public://GettyImages-56220209.jpeg","alt":"People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at \"Plimoth Plantation,\" where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.","title":"People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at \"Plimoth Plantation,\" where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.","caption":"\u003cp\u003ePeople visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at \u0026quot;Plimoth Plantation,\u0026quot; where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=1OFk5bpN","small":"16x9_small/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=xcPFbADo","medium":"16x9_medium/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=Diy_7whW","large":"16x9_large/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=GYB9wSI4","full":"16x9_full/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=8i2MpCDM"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=Y51ctBov","small":"square_small/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=IHFLRlrt","medium":"square_medium/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=GlyNnsvv","large":"square_large/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=EFQC-zzw","full":"square_full/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=Xjyxxevx"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=wSzc-x_A","small":"article_small/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=S3NudfFU","medium":"article_medium/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=85Pbv98K","large":"article_large/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=Y-zncPg7","full":"article_full/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=xuzsNqDt"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=Bb1uTvSE","small":"2x1_small/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=_-6y38BB","medium":"2x1_medium/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=vKyVZqki","large":"2x1_large/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=XiRMHIC4","full":"2x1_full/public/GettyImages-56220209.jpeg?itok=creKhP5e"}}},"teaser_body":"On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.","pov":"","mailout":"On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony, but few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732802680","created_formatted":"Nov 28, 2024 | 14:04 GMT","changed":"1732802680","changed_formatted":"Nov 28, 2024 | 14:04 GMT","path_alias":"article/thanksgiving-and-puritan-geopolitics-americas-1","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","path_alias":"/region/europe/united-kingdom"},{"tid":"92","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Portugal","code":"PT","path_alias":"/region/europe/portugal"},{"tid":"97","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Spain","code":"ES","path_alias":"/region/europe/spain"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"212090","full_name":"Evan Rees","first_name":"Evan","last_name":"Rees","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eEvan Rees was an Asia-Pacific Analyst at Stratfor. He specializes in Southeast Asia. His expertise includes relations between great powers and peripheral states, informal and black market economies as well as low-end manufacturing. He has also done extensive work on fisheries management and conflict in the South China Sea. Mr. Rees has appeared on CNBC Asia and been interviewed by numerous other media outlets.\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eMr. Rees holds a degree in history from Cornell University with a focus on colonial relations between Europe and the Global South. He lived and worked on the Thailand-Myanmar border doing relief and development projects in insurgent-controlled zones. Mr. Rees also worked in northern Sri Lanka assisting with refugee resettlement after the fall of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. He has a basic comprehension of the Myanmar language and a working knowledge of Spanish.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Evan-Rees-1%20%281%29_0.jpg","job_title":"Asia-Pacific Analyst","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1415298862","created_formatted":"Nov 6, 2014 | 18:34 GMT","changed":"1656600957","changed_formatted":"Jun 30, 2022 | 14:55 GMT","path_alias":"people/212090","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","name":"United Kingdom"},{"tid":"92","vid":"5","name":"Portugal"},{"tid":"97","vid":"5","name":"Spain"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347258","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Yemen display GettyImages-2172930121.jpg","alt":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","title":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","caption":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","credit":"(OSAMA ABDULRAHMAN/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=9UQtfT9Q","small":"16x9_small/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=ELmPoCbV","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=o3BoA8V1","large":"16x9_large/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=uorlmjCK","full":"16x9_full/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=pb5b1pUz"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=xnZDJ28o","small":"square_small/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=gnT1zhM5","medium":"square_medium/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=8_r7xw-z","large":"square_large/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=tGU4YRFb","full":"square_full/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=ZbbYoP5h"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=sW_UVmPN","small":"article_small/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=nt7KlwE-","medium":"article_medium/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=RMPMd4O0","large":"article_large/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=3lapO8xt","full":"article_full/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=Q_TDGp5J"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=bdvKk0ql","small":"2x1_small/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=65sAWcAf","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=hpvAGfn2","large":"2x1_large/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=9LDMDubk","full":"2x1_full/public/Yemen%20display%20GettyImages-2172930121.jpg?itok=r4Q0EFUu"}}},"teaser_body":"The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. ","pov":"","mailout":"Despite threats to the de facto cease-fire in Yemen's civil war, economic vulnerabilities will likely constrain the Houthis while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to disengage from the conflict; a major escalation in fighting is thus unlikely, and even if the Houthis attack Gulf energy infrastructure, there would likely be space for de-escalation. Since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza in October 2023, Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi militants have attacked Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians. Over the past year, these attacks have garnered far more attention than the domestic and regional security threats generated by the Houthis' ongoing war in Yemen against the Saudi-backed coalition supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government. However, multiple events have threatened to escalate the conflict in Yemen, which has been in a de facto cease-fire since April 2022. In July 2024, the Houthis threatened to attack Saudi Arabia's airports, banks and oil facilities after Yemen's Saudi-backed government decided that banks in Houthi-controlled territories must be relocated to Aden to isolate the Houthis from the international financial system. The situation was diffused when Saudi Arabia subsequently threatened to withdraw support for the internationally recognized government and pressured it to back down and de-escalate the banking crisis. Tensions escalated once more ahead of Israel's Oct. 26 attack on Iran, when Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, expressed concern that their oil and energy facilities would be targeted by Iranian regional allies and proxies, such as the Houthis, if Israel attacked Iran's oil facilities. Although Israel's attack avoided Iranian energy infrastructure, future Israeli attacks against Iran have a heightened likelihood of targeting sensitive nuclear or energy targets, meaning the threat of Houthi attacks against Gulf energy targets cannot be ruled out.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732724658","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT","changed":"1732724658","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/gulf-states-work-avoid-major-escalation-yemen-s-houthis","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iran","code":"IR","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel"},{"tid":"135","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Saudi Arabia","code":"SA","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/saudi-arabia"},{"tid":"138","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Arab Emirates","code":"AE","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/united-arab-emirates"},{"tid":"139","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Yemen","code":"YE","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/yemen"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","name":"Iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"},{"tid":"135","vid":"5","name":"Saudi Arabia"},{"tid":"138","vid":"5","name":"United Arab Emirates"},{"tid":"139","vid":"5","name":"Yemen"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347262","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Israel Lebanon GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg","alt":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","title":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","caption":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","credit":"(FADEL ITANI/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=VTn-LJAg","small":"16x9_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=EGyFObPb","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=eFxwVVlF","large":"16x9_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=NwxwIoFl","full":"16x9_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=KS4Fs0lM"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=ZT_63OGs","small":"square_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=bFBjbMkd","medium":"square_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=2d_mJePi","large":"square_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=xrG0901M","full":"square_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=TAmByWtQ"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=Nhn0ZtDn","small":"article_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=gTdIKqVl","medium":"article_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=v8c0oo4R","large":"article_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=6M8vjv0K","full":"article_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=a5h8p27T"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=imOKLptY","small":"2x1_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=EM3U9I3l","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=QcEimcDA","large":"2x1_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=4KW3d0k7","full":"2x1_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=SpRiJS9Y"}}},"teaser_body":"Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.","pov":"","mailout":"War-weariness has largely compelled Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day cease-fire agreement that will decrease hostilities on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, though periodic tit-for-tat attacks during the truce period could undermine the deal, reignite fighting and impede progress toward a permanent cease-fire. In the coming hours, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are reportedly set to approve a 60-day truce that paves the way for an eventual permanent cease-fire between the two sides, which have been in conflict since September. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened with his security Cabinet on Nov. 26 to approve the agreement, while Lebanon's caretaker government will likely approve the deal on Nov. 27. U.S. President Joe Biden will probably announce the cease-fire after the Israeli security Cabinet approves it. Meanwhile, on Nov. 25-26, fighting remained ongoing on both sides of the border, with Israeli forces continuing to issue evacuation orders in the Beirut suburbs ahead of airstrikes, while Hezbollah continued rocket fire toward northern Israel, including a barrage of rockets on the city of Nahariya. In Israel, news of the impending truce was met with staunch criticism from far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, though unlike during Israel's talks with Hamas to end fighting in Gaza, Ben-Givir and Smotrich did not threaten to topple Netanyahu's government if a cease-fire deal was reached. 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Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.","caption":"NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York.","credit":"(Michael M. 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tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.","pov":"","mailout":"Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732640031","created_formatted":"Nov 26, 2024 | 16:53 GMT","changed":"1732640730","changed_formatted":"Nov 26, 2024 | 17:05 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Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.","caption":"U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House.","credit":"(Alex Wong/Getty 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look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","pov":"","mailout":"A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732975200","created_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 14:00 GMT","changed":"1732975227","changed_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 14:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/weekly-rundown-biden-visits-angola-von-der-leyens-second-term","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"141","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Angola","code":"AO","path_alias":"/region/sub-saharan-africa/angola"},{"tid":"152","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Democratic Republic of the 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and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.","pov":"","mailout":"Though Japan and South Korea present an extreme demographic outlook and have sociocultural, political, economic and security nuances that deserve consideration, they set the blueprint for how the military must contend with stiff competition for human resources, a reconceptualization of manpower and replacement potential of physical personnel.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732878000","created_formatted":"Nov 29, 2024 | 11:00 GMT","changed":"1732878027","changed_formatted":"Nov 29, 2024 | 11:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/demographic-decline-and-military-manpower-understanding-shifting-role-people-conflict","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On 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informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.","pov":"","mailout":"Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732740770","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 20:52 GMT","changed":"1732740770","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 20:52 GMT","path_alias":"article/geopolitical-calendar","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347269","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 27, 2024","promo_image":{"uri":"public://naval-update-map-20241127-display.png","alt":"Naval Map 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map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.","pov":"","mailout":"The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732701600","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","changed":"1732701627","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-naval-update-map-nov-27-2024","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"564","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power","path_alias":"/topic/tracking-us-naval-power"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"564","vid":"33","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347256","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts","promo_image":{"uri":"public://United States Philippines GettyImages-2163859354.jpg","alt":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","title":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","caption":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","credit":"(TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=cEh7HnEh","small":"16x9_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=McPEU4sI","medium":"16x9_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=_CQda5mW","large":"16x9_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=wBVqdDit","full":"16x9_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=WCRUCh0S"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nabPp3nY","small":"square_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RwhpcWJY","medium":"square_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=dCXyKQcK","large":"square_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=9NRPwtdb","full":"square_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=e4qW4nBq"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=J7981VbV","small":"article_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=Kv9Trt4_","medium":"article_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=s09J3dk5","large":"article_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nQaxD2s7","full":"article_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=PqIuXfAF"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=fjDYNEY2","small":"2x1_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=mzKNbKVv","medium":"2x1_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=0J92Dltv","large":"2x1_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RsY6_jg9","full":"2x1_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=TPtBIZR7"}}},"teaser_body":"A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.","pov":"","mailout":"A recent slew of U.S.-Philippine agreements indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and further institutionalize their alliance before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. The United States and the Philippines significantly deepened their defense alliance between Nov. 18 and 21 in a series of high-profile developments. On Nov. 18, the two countries signed a General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA, which enables a substantial expansion of mechanisms for the secure exchange of classified information between the two countries, as well as for advanced U.S. defense technology. On the same day, the two countries also inaugurated the Combined Coordination Center in Manila, which is designed to enable real-time operational coordination, intelligence sharing and joint mission planning between their militaries. On Nov. 19, the United States then announced it would provide the Philippine Navy with an undisclosed number of unmanned surface vessels, or USVs, to enhance its maritime surveillance and domain awareness, thereby enabling the Philippines to more effectively monitor its territorial waters amid ongoing Chinese assertiveness. Finally, the two sides announced the establishment of Task Force-Ayungin, a U.S. military task force that will assist the Philippines in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in the disputed South China Sea. Together, these steps represent a transformative expansion of the U.S.-Philippine defense partnership, demonstrating a strengthened unified approach in the final months of U.S. President Joe Biden's term.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732569896","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","changed":"1732569896","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-and-philippines-race-deepen-ties-potential-policy-shifts","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Philippines","code":"PH","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/philippines"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","name":"Philippines"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347252","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Georgescu GettyImages-2185932967.jpg","alt":"Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 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Georgescu -- a pro-Russia, far-right independent candidate formerly affiliated with the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party -- unexpectedly won Romania's Nov. 24 presidential election, securing 23% of the vote. Elena Lasconi, the leader of the liberal, center-right Save Romania Union (USR) party, came in second place with 19.18% -- putting her just barely ahead of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu from the center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD), who secured 19.15%, followed by AUR leader George Simion with 13.9% and Nicolae Ciuca, the leader of the co-governing center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), with 8.8%. As the top two vote-getters, Georgescu and Lasconi will now advance to a run-off scheduled for Dec. 8. Romania will also hold parliamentary elections on Dec. 1.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732567114","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 20:38 GMT","changed":"1732567114","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 20:38 GMT","path_alias":"article/far-right-dark-horse-emerges-romanias-presidential-race","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"93","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Romania","code":"RO","path_alias":"/region/europe/romania"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"93","vid":"5","name":"Romania"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347233","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan","promo_image":{"uri":"public://NATO GettyImages-2179124817.jpg","alt":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels.","title":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. 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look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","pov":"","mailout":"A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732366800","created_formatted":"Nov 23, 2024 | 13:00 GMT","changed":"1732366827","changed_formatted":"Nov 23, 2024 | 13:00 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Elections","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Senegal Election GettyImages-2184588885.jpg","alt":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","title":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","caption":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","credit":"(Photo by MARIE RUWET / 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ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.","pov":"","mailout":"After securing a strong parliamentary majority, Senegal's ruling Patriots of Senegal party, or PASTEF, is set to implement fiscal consolidation measures to stabilize public finances, which will ease market concerns but risk eroding public support for the party over time. On Nov. 21, Senegal's National Commission for the Counting of Votes unveiled provisional results for the country's Nov. 17 snap legislative elections that showed that PASTEF won 130 of the National Assembly's 165 seats. Trailing second was former President Macky Sall's Takku Wallu Senegal coalition with 16 seats, followed by former Prime Minister Amadou Ba's Diam Ak Njarin with seven seats, and three seats for the Samm Sa Kaadu led by Dakar mayor Bathelemy Dias. Despite political tensions between PASTEF and the opposition during the campaign, the election was held without any cases of major unrest, and leading opposition figures recognized the results. While Sall denounced \"massive electoral fraud\" in the immediate aftermath of the election, he quickly walked back these accusations and conceded defeat on Nov. 18.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732289077","created_formatted":"Nov 22, 2024 | 15:24 GMT","changed":"1732570060","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:27 GMT","path_alias":"article/whats-next-senegal-after-presidents-landslide-victory-snap-legislative-elections","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"178","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Senegal","code":"SN","path_alias":"/region/sub-saharan-africa/senegal"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"178","vid":"5","name":"Senegal"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347216","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Ukraine GettyImages-2184404872.jpg","alt":"People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.","title":"People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.","caption":"People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.","credit":"(Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=so8BMyce","small":"16x9_small/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=m1tFELN8","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=2_av5aun","large":"16x9_large/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=_KRwnLld","full":"16x9_full/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=UGhRqTQK"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=dZAC7C9v","small":"square_small/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=BMNZXhwj","medium":"square_medium/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=WrC4Ipej","large":"square_large/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=ebkjxFLA","full":"square_full/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=JRDckAJS"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=XhR18UC8","small":"article_small/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=5KBgFp6w","medium":"article_medium/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=FWBGcW5W","large":"article_large/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=MbTPWrb_","full":"article_full/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=Tm5J0nRj"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=zY3zICXx","small":"2x1_small/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=fzIoaMn-","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=VqZUM8EQ","large":"2x1_large/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=E0bpZWLI","full":"2x1_full/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=6YgPwzOF"}}},"teaser_body":"Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.","pov":"","mailout":"Since the U.S. presidential election, there has been significant speculation about what Donald Trump's victory means for the war in Ukraine. Trump's campaign pledge to end the war quickly, combined with his veiled threats of suspending U.S. financial and military aid for Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, have raised questions about whether the conflict could end in 2025. While it is impossible to predict exactly when the war will end, Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline, with a cease-fire now more likely than ever. It is also becoming increasingly evident that a cease-fire will likely happen on terms that benefit Russia and may not necessarily lead to sustainable peace, even if it halts active fighting.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732216540","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","changed":"1732216540","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","path_alias":"article/growing-prospect-cease-fire-ukraine","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"}],"author":[{"nid":"211917","full_name":"Adriano Bosoni","first_name":"Adriano","last_name":"Bosoni","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"template_id":"","summary":"As Director of Analysis at RANE, Adriano Bosoni focuses on political, social and economic issues pertaining to the European Union and the eurozone.","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp\u003eAdriano Bosoni is Director of Analysis at RANE. His expertise is in European politics, economics and society, EU institutions and policies, risk analysis, demographics, migratory movements, and populism. He has more than a decade of experience forecasting geopolitical events on the Continent and has also worked on Latin American and Eurasian geopolitical forecasting. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni holds a journalism degree from USAL (Argentina), a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Relations from the University of Bologna (Italy), and has completed postgraduate courses on globalization (London School of Economics) and business analytics (Wharton, United States). He is also a former Fulbright scholar (University of Massachusetts Amherst).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni is frequently featured in and cited by numerous newspapers and broadcasts from around the world. He has lived and worked in several countries in Europe and the Americas and is fluent in English, Spanish and Italian. You can follow him on Twitter at @AdrianoBosoni\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Adriano-Bosoni.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1414773739","created_formatted":"Oct 31, 2014 | 16:42 GMT","changed":"1677513046","changed_formatted":"Feb 27, 2023 | 15:50 GMT","path_alias":"people/211917","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347096","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Geopolitics of Water: India's Groundwater Crisis","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Water-Series-Display_10.png","alt":"The Geopolitics of Water","title":"The Geopolitics of Water","caption":"The Geopolitics of Water","credit":"(Getty Images; RANE)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=-wYJtVcZ","small":"16x9_small/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=rFjjY-l9","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=hgwQGWd3","large":"16x9_large/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=KeSwbul9","full":"16x9_full/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=IsqOtIxz"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=3ytU-Rnv","small":"square_small/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=wgQbhGlx","medium":"square_medium/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=xE_yGuhp","large":"square_large/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=A1ft9Pq1","full":"square_full/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=HTk-jeQq"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=vSk7DzL4","small":"article_small/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=-d8EFv8h","medium":"article_medium/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=tWjWY75z","large":"article_large/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=8Cld_mOB","full":"article_full/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=a-94eHe0"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=EmDmbbzB","small":"2x1_small/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=FPGWBeOk","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=U7danfcB","large":"2x1_large/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=EdDQOIaR","full":"2x1_full/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=vuvsICfh"}}},"teaser_body":"Depleted groundwater reserves threaten India's agriculture, energy and manufacturing sectors, potentially sparking unrest and inter-state disputes in the absence of a coordinated national policy.","pov":"","mailout":"India's groundwater crisis, driven by overexploitation and climate-related challenges, will threaten agricultural productivity and energy production, increasing the risk of food insecurity, social unrest and regional disputes over diminishing resources, all of which could hinder India's economic growth and global competitiveness. India's water crisis is driven by a combination of factors, including rapid urbanization, industrial growth, and unsustainable agricultural practices that increase demands on water resources. This crisis will have far-reaching consequences, including threats to food security, public health and economic stability, making it one of the country's most pressing challenges. Inefficient water management, underdeveloped infrastructure and widespread pollution further aggravate the situation by reducing the availability of clean, usable water. Additionally, climate change worsens the issue amid extended heat waves, the disruption of rainfall patterns and depleted water sources, particularly during the dry summer months when rivers and reservoirs shrink. Meanwhile, India's position as the world's most populous country intensifies the need for clean, safe water, especially as demand continues to rise. According to the World Bank in 2023, India hosts 18% of the world's population but only 4% of its water resources, making it one of the most water-stressed nations globally.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732205244","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 16:07 GMT","changed":"1732205244","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 16:07 GMT","path_alias":"article/geopolitics-water-indias-groundwater-crisis","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"118","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"India","code":"IN","path_alias":"/region/south-asia/india"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"526","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Energy","path_alias":"/topic/energy"},{"tid":"524","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Environment, Science \u0026 Technology","path_alias":"/topic/environment-science-technology"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"118","vid":"5","name":"India"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"526","vid":"33","name":"Energy"},{"tid":"524","vid":"33","name":"Environment, Science \u0026 Technology"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"},{"tid":"1852","vid":"33","name":"The Geopolitics of Water"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347204","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 21, 2024","promo_image":{"uri":"public://naval-update-map-20241120-display.png","alt":"Naval Map Update","title":"","caption":"","credit":"","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=uho90QgS","small":"16x9_small/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=hp2sVrio","medium":"16x9_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=owp7lmcq","large":"16x9_large/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=2li7K1mo","full":"16x9_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=yXwUzWxh"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=BnBIkxnt","small":"square_small/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=5Es50lam","medium":"square_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=kEPw7goN","large":"square_large/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=bbRCBxcy","full":"square_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=YdPFlC5z"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=E-CdI-CK","small":"article_small/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=iX0vbNSR","medium":"article_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=G2WFa5ui","large":"article_large/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=wge186nG","full":"article_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=5y9tDhuJ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=BaD8Wytp","small":"2x1_small/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=B3YrBFH5","medium":"2x1_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=WUArEAHm","large":"2x1_large/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=F9tHUprk","full":"2x1_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=WVwFhsUH"}}},"teaser_body":"This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.","pov":"","mailout":"The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732190400","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 12:00 GMT","changed":"1732190427","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 12:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-naval-update-map-nov-21-2024","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"564","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power","path_alias":"/topic/tracking-us-naval-power"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"564","vid":"33","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347194","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Intelligence GettyImages-138076011 (1).jpg","alt":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","title":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","caption":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","credit":"(SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Okl6zFrq","small":"16x9_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=_Hwt92An","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Kv9EkFpB","large":"16x9_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=XeiYgQOs","full":"16x9_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Aqm9VdAn"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=vzzCgUaP","small":"square_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=ngSSBU4B","medium":"square_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=NGqzs-kA","large":"square_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=3o7XO4ai","full":"square_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=57hxovX3"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=wDu677bn","small":"article_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=YuR32u5i","medium":"article_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=RTryMTHQ","large":"article_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=T7x5p5tB","full":"article_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=e27pzCCQ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=DR_wGeGD","small":"2x1_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=uVHQ3HvY","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=cOCWPAn4","large":"2x1_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=miStMYIe","full":"2x1_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=REg86LGy"}}},"teaser_body":"For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.","pov":"","mailout":"Of course, every president has the right to choose leaders with whom he has close relationships and deep trust, and Trump is hardly unique in being accused of installing friends into positions of power. But although every presidential administration exerts some degree of political influence over intelligence agencies, at a minimum it is traditional for those selected to senior posts in the USIC to have relevant expertise and are generally seen as nonpartisan, given that the work of intelligence agencies has historically been considered as so important to be above politics. Trump, by contrast, appears to be elevating fierce loyalists whose main qualifications are ideological alignment, not experience, and who in some cases have directly maligned the work of the USIC. While Trump's nominees, assuming the Senate confirms them, may not end up being as political as feared, and though there are significant institutional barriers to widespread politicization, the mere possibility that the USIC is at risk of being politicized opens the door to harmful consequences for U.S. national security and that of U.S. allies and partners.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732121274","created_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","changed":"1732121274","changed_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","path_alias":"article/potential-politicization-us-security-apparatus-under-trump-part-2","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"601","vid":"37","name":"On Security"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"332197","full_name":"Sam Lichtenstein","first_name":"Sam","last_name":"Lichtenstein","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eSam Lichtenstein is\u0026nbsp;Director of Analysis at RANE, where his expertise is a wide range of international security issues. He holds a master\u0026#39;s degree from the Security Studies Program at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a bachelor\u0026#39;s degree from Johns Hopkins University. Prior to joining RANE, he served for more than four years in the U.S. government, where he developed analytic expertise on various terrorism topics, including providing tactical and strategic assessments of terrorist groups\u0026#39; motivations, capabilities, plans and intentions, as well as opportunities to counter them.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/sam-headshot.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1609975571","created_formatted":"Jan 6, 2021 | 23:26 GMT","changed":"1673980213","changed_formatted":"Jan 17, 2023 | 18:30 GMT","path_alias":"people/332197","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0}]},{"title":"Assessments","template_id":"template13","limit":"8","type":"filtered_content_feed","subqueue_id":"","filter":{"type":["article","sectioned_content"],"taxonomy":{"article_type":{"502":"502"},"assessments_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"column_type":[],"countries":[],"wv_themes":[],"wv_topics":[],"wv_series":[],"wv_event":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[]}},"nodes":[{"nid":"347276","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Rundown Biden Angola display GettyImages-1823068027.jpg","alt":"U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House.","title":"U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.","caption":"U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House.","credit":"(Alex Wong/Getty 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look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","pov":"","mailout":"A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732975200","created_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 14:00 GMT","changed":"1732975227","changed_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 14:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/weekly-rundown-biden-visits-angola-von-der-leyens-second-term","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"141","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Angola","code":"AO","path_alias":"/region/sub-saharan-africa/angola"},{"tid":"152","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Democratic Republic of the 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However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.","pov":"","mailout":"On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony, but few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732802680","created_formatted":"Nov 28, 2024 | 14:04 GMT","changed":"1732802680","changed_formatted":"Nov 28, 2024 | 14:04 GMT","path_alias":"article/thanksgiving-and-puritan-geopolitics-americas-1","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","path_alias":"/region/europe/united-kingdom"},{"tid":"92","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Portugal","code":"PT","path_alias":"/region/europe/portugal"},{"tid":"97","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Spain","code":"ES","path_alias":"/region/europe/spain"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"212090","full_name":"Evan Rees","first_name":"Evan","last_name":"Rees","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eEvan Rees was an Asia-Pacific Analyst at Stratfor. He specializes in Southeast Asia. His expertise includes relations between great powers and peripheral states, informal and black market economies as well as low-end manufacturing. He has also done extensive work on fisheries management and conflict in the South China Sea. Mr. Rees has appeared on CNBC Asia and been interviewed by numerous other media outlets.\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eMr. Rees holds a degree in history from Cornell University with a focus on colonial relations between Europe and the Global South. He lived and worked on the Thailand-Myanmar border doing relief and development projects in insurgent-controlled zones. Mr. Rees also worked in northern Sri Lanka assisting with refugee resettlement after the fall of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. He has a basic comprehension of the Myanmar language and a working knowledge of Spanish.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Evan-Rees-1%20%281%29_0.jpg","job_title":"Asia-Pacific Analyst","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1415298862","created_formatted":"Nov 6, 2014 | 18:34 GMT","changed":"1656600957","changed_formatted":"Jun 30, 2022 | 14:55 GMT","path_alias":"people/212090","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","name":"United Kingdom"},{"tid":"92","vid":"5","name":"Portugal"},{"tid":"97","vid":"5","name":"Spain"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"290404","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Geopolitical 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informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.","pov":"","mailout":"Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732740770","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 20:52 GMT","changed":"1732740770","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 20:52 GMT","path_alias":"article/geopolitical-calendar","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347258","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Yemen display GettyImages-2172930121.jpg","alt":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","title":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","caption":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","credit":"(OSAMA ABDULRAHMAN/AFP via Getty 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Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. ","pov":"","mailout":"Despite threats to the de facto cease-fire in Yemen's civil war, economic vulnerabilities will likely constrain the Houthis while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to disengage from the conflict; a major escalation in fighting is thus unlikely, and even if the Houthis attack Gulf energy infrastructure, there would likely be space for de-escalation. Since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza in October 2023, Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi militants have attacked Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians. Over the past year, these attacks have garnered far more attention than the domestic and regional security threats generated by the Houthis' ongoing war in Yemen against the Saudi-backed coalition supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government. However, multiple events have threatened to escalate the conflict in Yemen, which has been in a de facto cease-fire since April 2022. In July 2024, the Houthis threatened to attack Saudi Arabia's airports, banks and oil facilities after Yemen's Saudi-backed government decided that banks in Houthi-controlled territories must be relocated to Aden to isolate the Houthis from the international financial system. The situation was diffused when Saudi Arabia subsequently threatened to withdraw support for the internationally recognized government and pressured it to back down and de-escalate the banking crisis. Tensions escalated once more ahead of Israel's Oct. 26 attack on Iran, when Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, expressed concern that their oil and energy facilities would be targeted by Iranian regional allies and proxies, such as the Houthis, if Israel attacked Iran's oil facilities. Although Israel's attack avoided Iranian energy infrastructure, future Israeli attacks against Iran have a heightened likelihood of targeting sensitive nuclear or energy targets, meaning the threat of Houthi attacks against Gulf energy targets cannot be ruled out.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732724658","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT","changed":"1732724658","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/gulf-states-work-avoid-major-escalation-yemen-s-houthis","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iran","code":"IR","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel"},{"tid":"135","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Saudi Arabia","code":"SA","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/saudi-arabia"},{"tid":"138","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Arab Emirates","code":"AE","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/united-arab-emirates"},{"tid":"139","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Yemen","code":"YE","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/yemen"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","name":"Iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"},{"tid":"135","vid":"5","name":"Saudi Arabia"},{"tid":"138","vid":"5","name":"United Arab Emirates"},{"tid":"139","vid":"5","name":"Yemen"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347269","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 27, 2024","promo_image":{"uri":"public://naval-update-map-20241127-display.png","alt":"Naval Map Update","title":"","caption":"","credit":"","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=a2cYHg9f","small":"16x9_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=4fhkcWx8","medium":"16x9_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=LJllVAje","large":"16x9_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=T30g11Go","full":"16x9_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=WrgCFHRx"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=bHuvkmsb","small":"square_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=yScdMpKC","medium":"square_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=e7qvGZCh","large":"square_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=pP22P_7g","full":"square_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=vUs1NQ4Q"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=sKmzoCm_","small":"article_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=64MUWGSP","medium":"article_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=T4cBFxsY","large":"article_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=fKOyK5Y8","full":"article_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=U1PTnExG"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=HW0Ct6mV","small":"2x1_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=S852EUm9","medium":"2x1_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=DN4UdQaL","large":"2x1_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=HyYHr5P7","full":"2x1_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=fwNlxWV3"}}},"teaser_body":"This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.","pov":"","mailout":"The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732701600","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","changed":"1732701627","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-naval-update-map-nov-27-2024","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"564","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power","path_alias":"/topic/tracking-us-naval-power"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"564","vid":"33","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347262","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Israel Lebanon GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg","alt":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","title":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","caption":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","credit":"(FADEL ITANI/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=VTn-LJAg","small":"16x9_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=EGyFObPb","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=eFxwVVlF","large":"16x9_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=NwxwIoFl","full":"16x9_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=KS4Fs0lM"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=ZT_63OGs","small":"square_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=bFBjbMkd","medium":"square_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=2d_mJePi","large":"square_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=xrG0901M","full":"square_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=TAmByWtQ"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=Nhn0ZtDn","small":"article_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=gTdIKqVl","medium":"article_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=v8c0oo4R","large":"article_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=6M8vjv0K","full":"article_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=a5h8p27T"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=imOKLptY","small":"2x1_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=EM3U9I3l","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=QcEimcDA","large":"2x1_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=4KW3d0k7","full":"2x1_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=SpRiJS9Y"}}},"teaser_body":"Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.","pov":"","mailout":"War-weariness has largely compelled Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day cease-fire agreement that will decrease hostilities on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, though periodic tit-for-tat attacks during the truce period could undermine the deal, reignite fighting and impede progress toward a permanent cease-fire. In the coming hours, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are reportedly set to approve a 60-day truce that paves the way for an eventual permanent cease-fire between the two sides, which have been in conflict since September. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened with his security Cabinet on Nov. 26 to approve the agreement, while Lebanon's caretaker government will likely approve the deal on Nov. 27. U.S. President Joe Biden will probably announce the cease-fire after the Israeli security Cabinet approves it. Meanwhile, on Nov. 25-26, fighting remained ongoing on both sides of the border, with Israeli forces continuing to issue evacuation orders in the Beirut suburbs ahead of airstrikes, while Hezbollah continued rocket fire toward northern Israel, including a barrage of rockets on the city of Nahariya. In Israel, news of the impending truce was met with staunch criticism from far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, though unlike during Israel's talks with Hamas to end fighting in Gaza, Ben-Givir and Smotrich did not threaten to topple Netanyahu's government if a cease-fire deal was reached. The United States has in the past few days pressured both Israel and Hezbollah to accept the agreement, threatening to end mediation efforts if they did not.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732644531","created_formatted":"Nov 26, 2024 | 18:08 GMT","changed":"1732987055","changed_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 17:17 GMT","path_alias":"article/what-expect-israel-and-hezbollahs-truce","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel"},{"tid":"130","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Lebanon","code":"LB","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/lebanon"},{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/israel-hamas-conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"},{"tid":"130","vid":"5","name":"Lebanon"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347256","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts","promo_image":{"uri":"public://United States Philippines GettyImages-2163859354.jpg","alt":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","title":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","caption":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","credit":"(TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=cEh7HnEh","small":"16x9_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=McPEU4sI","medium":"16x9_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=_CQda5mW","large":"16x9_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=wBVqdDit","full":"16x9_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=WCRUCh0S"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nabPp3nY","small":"square_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RwhpcWJY","medium":"square_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=dCXyKQcK","large":"square_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=9NRPwtdb","full":"square_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=e4qW4nBq"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=J7981VbV","small":"article_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=Kv9Trt4_","medium":"article_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=s09J3dk5","large":"article_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nQaxD2s7","full":"article_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=PqIuXfAF"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=fjDYNEY2","small":"2x1_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=mzKNbKVv","medium":"2x1_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=0J92Dltv","large":"2x1_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RsY6_jg9","full":"2x1_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=TPtBIZR7"}}},"teaser_body":"A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.","pov":"","mailout":"A recent slew of U.S.-Philippine agreements indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and further institutionalize their alliance before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. The United States and the Philippines significantly deepened their defense alliance between Nov. 18 and 21 in a series of high-profile developments. On Nov. 18, the two countries signed a General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA, which enables a substantial expansion of mechanisms for the secure exchange of classified information between the two countries, as well as for advanced U.S. defense technology. On the same day, the two countries also inaugurated the Combined Coordination Center in Manila, which is designed to enable real-time operational coordination, intelligence sharing and joint mission planning between their militaries. On Nov. 19, the United States then announced it would provide the Philippine Navy with an undisclosed number of unmanned surface vessels, or USVs, to enhance its maritime surveillance and domain awareness, thereby enabling the Philippines to more effectively monitor its territorial waters amid ongoing Chinese assertiveness. Finally, the two sides announced the establishment of Task Force-Ayungin, a U.S. military task force that will assist the Philippines in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in the disputed South China Sea. Together, these steps represent a transformative expansion of the U.S.-Philippine defense partnership, demonstrating a strengthened unified approach in the final months of U.S. President Joe Biden's term.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732569896","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","changed":"1732569896","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-and-philippines-race-deepen-ties-potential-policy-shifts","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Philippines","code":"PH","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/philippines"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","name":"Philippines"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347233","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan","promo_image":{"uri":"public://NATO GettyImages-2179124817.jpg","alt":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels.","title":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as \"Oreshnik.\"","caption":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels.","credit":"(Omar Havana/Getty 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look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","pov":"","mailout":"A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732366800","created_formatted":"Nov 23, 2024 | 13:00 GMT","changed":"1732366827","changed_formatted":"Nov 23, 2024 | 13:00 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Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.","caption":"NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York.","credit":"(Michael M. 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","caption":"Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024.","credit":"(OCTAV GANEA/DIGI24/INQUAM PHOTOS/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=QXA1BPBJ","small":"16x9_small/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=6c7W2q2G","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=zL7xNfLl","large":"16x9_large/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=q3JW36bF","full":"16x9_full/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=VMus-J65"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=Uij_gRtK","small":"square_small/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=45QFQ0BD","medium":"square_medium/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=B4yYuudq","large":"square_large/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=_GD2miEQ","full":"square_full/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=WejXFdcg"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=ULBXY-4N","small":"article_small/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=h1IxUoVS","medium":"article_medium/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=0iDszb6n","large":"article_large/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=TYnR8T7y","full":"article_full/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=HtIVlr9B"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=D959hZCa","small":"2x1_small/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=GEM2xAXw","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=GV3y2WQb","large":"2x1_large/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=BHCnvpYo","full":"2x1_full/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=LZ1h_3G8"}}},"teaser_body":"Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.","pov":"","mailout":"A victory by far-right candidate Calin Georgescu in the second round of Romania's presidential election could weaken the country's support for EU integration, NATO and Ukraine, while his surprising victory in the first round reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment ahead of Romania's parliamentary elections on Dec. 1, likely complicating coalition-building efforts and further destabilizing Romania's political landscape. Georgescu -- a pro-Russia, far-right independent candidate formerly affiliated with the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party -- unexpectedly won Romania's Nov. 24 presidential election, securing 23% of the vote. Elena Lasconi, the leader of the liberal, center-right Save Romania Union (USR) party, came in second place with 19.18% -- putting her just barely ahead of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu from the center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD), who secured 19.15%, followed by AUR leader George Simion with 13.9% and Nicolae Ciuca, the leader of the co-governing center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), with 8.8%. As the top two vote-getters, Georgescu and Lasconi will now advance to a run-off scheduled for Dec. 8. Romania will also hold parliamentary elections on Dec. 1.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732567114","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 20:38 GMT","changed":"1732567114","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 20:38 GMT","path_alias":"article/far-right-dark-horse-emerges-romanias-presidential-race","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"93","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Romania","code":"RO","path_alias":"/region/europe/romania"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"93","vid":"5","name":"Romania"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347226","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Senegal Election GettyImages-2184588885.jpg","alt":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","title":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","caption":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","credit":"(Photo by MARIE RUWET / AFP)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=aLJuc2f5","small":"16x9_small/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=up4FgDAI","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=M5UDV6n3","large":"16x9_large/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=LrJNpkAa","full":"16x9_full/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=K-xWyCpm"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=pjAdic73","small":"square_small/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=epj1l2dJ","medium":"square_medium/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=zc22mJDq","large":"square_large/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=sbM5QzyA","full":"square_full/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=MySCJnAa"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=uo-m9IXT","small":"article_small/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=ncVSwivW","medium":"article_medium/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=tNuRSRTV","large":"article_large/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=YLguNDsp","full":"article_full/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=QPpxq6oR"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=5a8Kv6Zk","small":"2x1_small/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=6wEXINkl","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=73n_Qefc","large":"2x1_large/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=jrauZTS1","full":"2x1_full/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=kgB7NuUO"}}},"teaser_body":"Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.","pov":"","mailout":"After securing a strong parliamentary majority, Senegal's ruling Patriots of Senegal party, or PASTEF, is set to implement fiscal consolidation measures to stabilize public finances, which will ease market concerns but risk eroding public support for the party over time. On Nov. 21, Senegal's National Commission for the Counting of Votes unveiled provisional results for the country's Nov. 17 snap legislative elections that showed that PASTEF won 130 of the National Assembly's 165 seats. Trailing second was former President Macky Sall's Takku Wallu Senegal coalition with 16 seats, followed by former Prime Minister Amadou Ba's Diam Ak Njarin with seven seats, and three seats for the Samm Sa Kaadu led by Dakar mayor Bathelemy Dias. Despite political tensions between PASTEF and the opposition during the campaign, the election was held without any cases of major unrest, and leading opposition figures recognized the results. While Sall denounced \"massive electoral fraud\" in the immediate aftermath of the election, he quickly walked back these accusations and conceded defeat on Nov. 18.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732289077","created_formatted":"Nov 22, 2024 | 15:24 GMT","changed":"1732570060","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:27 GMT","path_alias":"article/whats-next-senegal-after-presidents-landslide-victory-snap-legislative-elections","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"178","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Senegal","code":"SN","path_alias":"/region/sub-saharan-africa/senegal"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"178","vid":"5","name":"Senegal"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347166","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Russia Gas GettyImages-2185093914.jpg","alt":"A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.","title":"A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.","caption":"A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.","credit":"(Photo by Christian Bruna/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=9zcSvKuk","small":"16x9_small/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=mOWr6OPZ","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=TokkGjos","large":"16x9_large/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=Ix0E8e86","full":"16x9_full/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=GiO2PpSw"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=YlFYmFlp","small":"square_small/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=Hb9jbOU4","medium":"square_medium/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=k0v6_6ZX","large":"square_large/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=UqoCG2Af","full":"square_full/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=3ZvEQCxw"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=7oj2o8TM","small":"article_small/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=qRfqTmKo","medium":"article_medium/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=NYim24qo","large":"article_large/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=LP5muZs4","full":"article_full/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=ZhSbXRRI"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=i_ToOEDP","small":"2x1_small/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=xO7_Weid","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=zicSRw9S","large":"2x1_large/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=wuI7R8UN","full":"2x1_full/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=0wrjd54u"}}},"teaser_body":"A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.","pov":"","mailout":"A complete interruption of Russian gas supply through Ukraine would likely only have a limited and temporary impact on Europe's energy markets thanks to ample gas storage, alternative entry points and increased access to new global LNG supplies in the coming years. Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom interrupted natural gas supplies to Austria on Nov. 16. The interruption followed a Nov. 13 warning from Austrian energy group OMV that Russia could disrupt supplies after an international arbitration ruling awarded Austria 230 million euros ($243 million) against Gazprom for damages related to Moscow's September 2022 decision to cease natural gas exports to Germany (including volumes destined for Austria). OMV's warning said the company expected a \"deterioration of the contractual relationship\" with Gazprom and a \"potential halt of gas supply\" as a result of the ruling, particularly as it planned to immediately recoup damages won in the arbitration by withholding payments for imports from the Russian company. The warning triggered a surge in European gas prices on Nov. 14, with European benchmark Dutch TTF futures rising as much as 5% to a one-year high of 46 euros per megawatt-hour. However, the market reaction to the actual Nov. 16 cut-off was largely muted when trading resumed on Nov. 18, as Gazprom redistributed the unsold volumes of Austria's 17 million cubic meters per day to other European buyers, keeping the overall supply to the Continent stable. ","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731951434","created_formatted":"Nov 18, 2024 | 17:37 GMT","changed":"1731951434","changed_formatted":"Nov 18, 2024 | 17:37 GMT","path_alias":"article/markets-shrug-russias-gas-cut-austria","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"21","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Europe","code":"","path_alias":"/region/europe"},{"tid":"63","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Austria","code":"AT","path_alias":"/region/europe/austria"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"526","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Energy","path_alias":"/topic/energy"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"21","vid":"5","name":"Europe"},{"tid":"63","vid":"5","name":"Austria"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"526","vid":"33","name":"Energy"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347164","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Ukraine Missiles GettyImages-2184592260.jpg","alt":"Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.","title":"Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.","caption":"Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.","credit":"(Photo by OLEKSANDR GIMANOV/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=t2jryAxM","small":"16x9_small/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=6Cx0dPeb","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=HSaJurgw","large":"16x9_large/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=0w_2J3Kk","full":"16x9_full/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=ejpjmqU7"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=TDpoXEXZ","small":"square_small/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=_bSS0cGc","medium":"square_medium/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=Nsw-Ir0y","large":"square_large/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=J6AM5XOL","full":"square_full/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=OE6a9t3b"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=Uq-zvUXf","small":"article_small/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=420n9n0i","medium":"article_medium/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=K4OcUkah","large":"article_large/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=3myg2B75","full":"article_full/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=AGA_eQCL"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=ScG3zpiI","small":"2x1_small/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=Zo3kIRd0","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=xIIT6YLM","large":"2x1_large/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=IQqlRLnG","full":"2x1_full/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=8o8U71Lk"}}},"teaser_body":"The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.","pov":"","mailout":"The U.S. decision to allow Ukrainian strikes with Western weapons deeper inside Russia could increase attrition among the Russian army and prompt Moscow to respond with escalation, but will not stop Russian advances or fundamentally change the trajectory of the war. On Nov. 17, U.S. Joe President Biden authorized the first use of U.S. long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia. The first strikes with Army Tactical Missile System (commonly known as ATACMS missiles), which have a range of 190 miles (305 kilometers), will reportedly be carried out on Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region in the coming days. The move comes after months of deliberations among Western governments on the topic and Kremlin efforts to forestall a final decision, but reports the same day suggested the governments of France and Great Britain could follow suit by allowing the Ukrainian military to use SCALP/Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles on Russian territory. In line with previous U.S. policy changes regarding Ukrainian usage of its weapons, the United States will probably not officially acknowledge the policy change until some time after the weapons have already been used inside Russian territory.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731950637","created_formatted":"Nov 18, 2024 | 17:23 GMT","changed":"1731950637","changed_formatted":"Nov 18, 2024 | 17:23 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-greenlights-limited-ukrainian-strikes-inside-russia-long-range-missiles","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"73","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"France","code":"FR","path_alias":"/region/europe/france"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","path_alias":"/region/europe/united-kingdom"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"73","vid":"5","name":"France"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","name":"United Kingdom"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347149","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Israel's October Strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility Indicates More Strikes Ahead","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Iran GettyImages-2148579170.jpg","alt":"The Iranian capital of Tehran.","title":"The Iranian capital of Tehran. An Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.","caption":"The Iranian capital of Tehran.","credit":"(Abram81/Getty)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=YzN0F7i0","small":"16x9_small/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=vOAiQkfB","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=cAb_Ap-h","large":"16x9_large/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=VA0i3AU5","full":"16x9_full/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=bjtzm87R"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=VGXYiqGK","small":"square_small/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=B6GbtZ--","medium":"square_medium/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=Hyfox01w","large":"square_large/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=gpJUXiCX","full":"square_full/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=cKgn6Mqc"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=JkC0sDpg","small":"article_small/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=_ezl2uMI","medium":"article_medium/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=k68nfh4f","large":"article_large/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=z8zQLwAI","full":"article_full/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=_7zB6SEz"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=-_plrlEu","small":"2x1_small/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=7XAOmOSn","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=oQcdQN3h","large":"2x1_large/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=QpxIglmq","full":"2x1_full/public/Iran%20GettyImages-2148579170.jpg?itok=52aS3qGC"}}},"teaser_body":"The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.","pov":"","mailout":"The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons if it chooses, meaning Israel and possibly the United States will be more likely to attack Iran again.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731687746","created_formatted":"Nov 15, 2024 | 16:22 GMT","changed":"1731687827","changed_formatted":"Nov 15, 2024 | 16:23 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Ishiba is unlikely to leave office anytime soon, Japan's new minority government will impede domestic policymaking, which could fray U.S.-Japan ties if defense spending reforms are delayed.","pov":"","mailout":"Though Japan's ruling party has survived another vote and its premier is unlikely to leave office anytime soon, the country's new minority government will face legislative delays in passing financial support for households, its annual budget and defense spending reforms, which could fray U.S.-Japan ties. On Nov. 11, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba won a vote in the lower house of the Diet to stay on as prime minister. Two small opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Nippon Ishin, voted for their own party leaders in a run-off election between the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party's (CDP) candidate and Ishiba, invalidating their ballots and allowing Ishiba to win the run-off with only a minority of votes from his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and long-time coalition partner Komeito. This vote came after Ishiba was first elected as prime minister on Sept. 27 by the LDP, and follows Japan's Oct. 27 snap elections, called by Ishiba on Sept. 30, which saw the LDP lose its majority but maintain a plurality in the lower house. Since then, both the LDP and CDP have been scrambling to form a majority coalition ahead of the Nov. 11 vote in the Diet for a prime minister. No such majority coalition has formed, nor has the LDP secured a confidence and supply agreement with the DPP or Nippon Ishin, which would have helped insulate the LDP from budget disputes and no confidence votes. Thus, the LDP now rules a simple minority government as both of these smaller parties have only pledged to negotiate with the LDP on a case-by-case basis to maximize policy concessions.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731363640","created_formatted":"Nov 11, 2024 | 22:20 GMT","changed":"1731363743","changed_formatted":"Nov 11, 2024 | 22:22 GMT","path_alias":"article/japans-pm-ishiba-survives-struggle-another-day","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"200","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Japan","code":"JP","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/japan"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"200","vid":"5","name":"Japan"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347056","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union","promo_image":{"uri":"public://EU, U.S. Flags.jpg","alt":"The U.S. and EU flags.","title":"The U.S. and EU flags.","caption":"The U.S. and EU flags.","credit":"(Gizmo/Getty)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=h-R964tT","small":"16x9_small/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=KFN9KvFN","medium":"16x9_medium/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=lWf_pYLP","large":"16x9_large/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=ctZzIvvQ","full":"16x9_full/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=mBetcPJi"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=FpG-tS37","small":"square_small/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=0c8k5mGP","medium":"square_medium/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=OML4wX1M","large":"square_large/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=Yh8cGTRN","full":"square_full/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=F-esiEX4"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=Xmoiiuip","small":"article_small/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=yjhwAv6j","medium":"article_medium/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=VRI5dV_m","large":"article_large/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=K751Ba7p","full":"article_full/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=Ni9vIsTE"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=NRgF9pmg","small":"2x1_small/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=_nK5-t7k","medium":"2x1_medium/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=LzYFRZaR","large":"2x1_large/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=1Y_IdWGh","full":"2x1_full/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=xqJLYCUZ"}}},"teaser_body":"Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. ","pov":"","mailout":"Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 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Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.","caption":"South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea.","credit":"(JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty 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and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.","pov":"","mailout":"Though Japan and South Korea present an extreme demographic outlook and have sociocultural, political, economic and security nuances that deserve consideration, they set the blueprint for how the military must contend with stiff competition for human resources, a reconceptualization of manpower and replacement potential of physical personnel.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732878000","created_formatted":"Nov 29, 2024 | 11:00 GMT","changed":"1732878027","changed_formatted":"Nov 29, 2024 | 11:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/demographic-decline-and-military-manpower-understanding-shifting-role-people-conflict","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On 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victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.","pov":"","mailout":"Since the U.S. presidential election, there has been significant speculation about what Donald Trump's victory means for the war in Ukraine. Trump's campaign pledge to end the war quickly, combined with his veiled threats of suspending U.S. financial and military aid for Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, have raised questions about whether the conflict could end in 2025. While it is impossible to predict exactly when the war will end, Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline, with a cease-fire now more likely than ever. It is also becoming increasingly evident that a cease-fire will likely happen on terms that benefit Russia and may not necessarily lead to sustainable peace, even if it halts active fighting.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732216540","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","changed":"1732216540","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","path_alias":"article/growing-prospect-cease-fire-ukraine","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"}],"author":[{"nid":"211917","full_name":"Adriano Bosoni","first_name":"Adriano","last_name":"Bosoni","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"template_id":"","summary":"As Director of Analysis at RANE, Adriano Bosoni focuses on political, social and economic issues pertaining to the European Union and the eurozone.","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp\u003eAdriano Bosoni is Director of Analysis at RANE. His expertise is in European politics, economics and society, EU institutions and policies, risk analysis, demographics, migratory movements, and populism. He has more than a decade of experience forecasting geopolitical events on the Continent and has also worked on Latin American and Eurasian geopolitical forecasting. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni holds a journalism degree from USAL (Argentina), a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Relations from the University of Bologna (Italy), and has completed postgraduate courses on globalization (London School of Economics) and business analytics (Wharton, United States). He is also a former Fulbright scholar (University of Massachusetts Amherst).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni is frequently featured in and cited by numerous newspapers and broadcasts from around the world. He has lived and worked in several countries in Europe and the Americas and is fluent in English, Spanish and Italian. You can follow him on Twitter at @AdrianoBosoni\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Adriano-Bosoni.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1414773739","created_formatted":"Oct 31, 2014 | 16:42 GMT","changed":"1677513046","changed_formatted":"Feb 27, 2023 | 15:50 GMT","path_alias":"people/211917","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347194","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Intelligence GettyImages-138076011 (1).jpg","alt":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","title":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","caption":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","credit":"(SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Okl6zFrq","small":"16x9_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=_Hwt92An","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Kv9EkFpB","large":"16x9_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=XeiYgQOs","full":"16x9_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Aqm9VdAn"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=vzzCgUaP","small":"square_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=ngSSBU4B","medium":"square_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=NGqzs-kA","large":"square_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=3o7XO4ai","full":"square_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=57hxovX3"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=wDu677bn","small":"article_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=YuR32u5i","medium":"article_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=RTryMTHQ","large":"article_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=T7x5p5tB","full":"article_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=e27pzCCQ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=DR_wGeGD","small":"2x1_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=uVHQ3HvY","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=cOCWPAn4","large":"2x1_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=miStMYIe","full":"2x1_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=REg86LGy"}}},"teaser_body":"For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.","pov":"","mailout":"Of course, every president has the right to choose leaders with whom he has close relationships and deep trust, and Trump is hardly unique in being accused of installing friends into positions of power. But although every presidential administration exerts some degree of political influence over intelligence agencies, at a minimum it is traditional for those selected to senior posts in the USIC to have relevant expertise and are generally seen as nonpartisan, given that the work of intelligence agencies has historically been considered as so important to be above politics. Trump, by contrast, appears to be elevating fierce loyalists whose main qualifications are ideological alignment, not experience, and who in some cases have directly maligned the work of the USIC. While Trump's nominees, assuming the Senate confirms them, may not end up being as political as feared, and though there are significant institutional barriers to widespread politicization, the mere possibility that the USIC is at risk of being politicized opens the door to harmful consequences for U.S. national security and that of U.S. allies and partners.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732121274","created_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","changed":"1732121274","changed_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","path_alias":"article/potential-politicization-us-security-apparatus-under-trump-part-2","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"601","vid":"37","name":"On Security"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"332197","full_name":"Sam Lichtenstein","first_name":"Sam","last_name":"Lichtenstein","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eSam Lichtenstein is\u0026nbsp;Director of Analysis at RANE, where his expertise is a wide range of international security issues. He holds a master\u0026#39;s degree from the Security Studies Program at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a bachelor\u0026#39;s degree from Johns Hopkins University. Prior to joining RANE, he served for more than four years in the U.S. government, where he developed analytic expertise on various terrorism topics, including providing tactical and strategic assessments of terrorist groups\u0026#39; motivations, capabilities, plans and intentions, as well as opportunities to counter them.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/sam-headshot.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1609975571","created_formatted":"Jan 6, 2021 | 23:26 GMT","changed":"1673980213","changed_formatted":"Jan 17, 2023 | 18:30 GMT","path_alias":"people/332197","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347159","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1","promo_image":{"uri":"public://US Military GettyImages-1239101010.jpg","alt":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","title":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","caption":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","credit":"(Photo by CHRISTOF STACHE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=QRWdgD9g","small":"16x9_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=QxeTeoKV","medium":"16x9_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=MVEJXO62","large":"16x9_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=FLIRuN56","full":"16x9_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Sjomc_Qs"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=3rzKE0Pw","small":"square_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=rCwVxteA","medium":"square_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=q6C9SjHV","large":"square_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=7QGPGkZN","full":"square_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=-AjHpbI7"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=yS4ZLteH","small":"article_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Xxm8h3qG","medium":"article_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=6z7JqLYx","large":"article_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=ETVjmX_W","full":"article_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=5VkfZeTa"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=juCYpoOc","small":"2x1_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=-D0ZVQNK","medium":"2x1_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Q56D1jfl","large":"2x1_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Fv0fPciR","full":"2x1_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=i7qWnBDX"}}},"teaser_body":"Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.","pov":"","mailout":"In anticipation of Donald Trump's return to the White House, analysts, including ours, are wasting no time in assessing his priorities upon assuming office. While much attention has focused on Trump's repeated, high-profile pledges to implement tariffs, curb immigration and make other major policy moves, a comparatively less scrutinized area is Trump's plan for the U.S. military. On Nov. 12, The Wall Street Journal published a major scoop indicating that Trump's transition team is considering a draft executive order that would create a \"warrior board\" of retired senior military officers. These individuals would be empowered to review the upper echelon of admirals and generals and recommend the removal of those determined to be \"lacking in requisite leadership qualities,\" which is apparently undefined in the draft executive order. It is unclear whether the transition team will formally present this order to Trump, if he would sign it as-is or an amended version, or whether he would even follow the board's recommendations. However, the mere fact that such an order apparently is being discussed -- especially given Trump's rhetoric on the campaign trail railing against \"woke generals\" and his controversial nomination of Fox News host and veteran Pete Hegseth to be Secretary of Defense -- raises serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces under a second Trump administration.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732032460","created_formatted":"Nov 19, 2024 | 16:07 GMT","changed":"1732119002","changed_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:10 GMT","path_alias":"article/potential-politicization-us-security-apparatus-under-trump-part-1","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"601","vid":"37","name":"On Security"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347138","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Israel Iran GettyImages-2175381891.jpg","alt":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. ","title":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. ","caption":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel.","credit":"(Erik Marmor/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=S77QyH1x","small":"16x9_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=IbR9SHv1","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=83MiWWN0","large":"16x9_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Qsk4DgRG","full":"16x9_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Obqar0jl"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=CYCwhRyf","small":"square_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=EWwF65mH","medium":"square_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Do15E3J2","large":"square_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=EQF-OhVF","full":"square_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=rj2cR8wR"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=-ApEJIvX","small":"article_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=UiOYtqmC","medium":"article_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=BbU0gIhu","large":"article_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=FIMmj4iM","full":"article_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=41oFmhDX"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=_fH9RyNZ","small":"2x1_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=rRi8458C","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=dr7Hq18n","large":"2x1_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=JyD3UN9m","full":"2x1_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=I5dnc1-C"}}},"teaser_body":"In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.","pov":"","mailout":"With a second round of Israeli-Iranian direct strikes concluded, the two rivals have now normalized direct attacks on one another. With this taboo broken, how will their conflict evolve?","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731538041","created_formatted":"Nov 13, 2024 | 22:47 GMT","changed":"1731538041","changed_formatted":"Nov 13, 2024 | 22:47 GMT","path_alias":"article/how-israel-iran-conflict-may-play-out-trump-presidency","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iran","code":"IR","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel"},{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/israel-hamas-conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"288686","full_name":"Ryan Bohl","first_name":"Ryan","last_name":"Bohl","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eRyan Bohl is a Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, where he focuses on strategic, demographic, social, diplomatic and political issues in the greater MENA region. His area of expertise is particularly on the behaviors of Gulf Cooperation Council member states, the Levant, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Yemen, and aspects of U.S. Middle Eastern policy. Ryan holds bachelor\u0026#39;s and master\u0026#39;s degrees from Arizona State University. He has lived and worked in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and has been cited as a regional expert in numerous publications, including AP, Bloomberg and Time magazine. You can follow him on Twitter at @Ryan_Bohl.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Ryan_Bohl_website%20%281%29.jpg","job_title":"Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1523916863","created_formatted":"Apr 16, 2018 | 22:14 GMT","changed":"1673036183","changed_formatted":"Jan 6, 2023 | 20:16 GMT","path_alias":"people/288686","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","name":"Iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"},{"tid":"1660","vid":"33","name":"U.S.-Iran Relations"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347122","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Ukraine Weapons Shipment display GettyImages-2147868009 C.jpg","alt":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","title":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","caption":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","credit":"(CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=xUTPSdG0","small":"16x9_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=hpt68gkA","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=PT2JiLcq","large":"16x9_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=PsPslfVh","full":"16x9_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=vbzl3Aku"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=md0BSV6T","small":"square_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=VhFFJMz3","medium":"square_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=221dfNc9","large":"square_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Xj6KbmFr","full":"square_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=OUVIchyL"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=bynQG-Fm","small":"article_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=W7vfwprz","medium":"article_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=qQdLhua7","large":"article_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Cf8MLe0U","full":"article_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=ycTvIhrZ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=durWNFe2","small":"2x1_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Ecr3R12E","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=xaaj-HCU","large":"2x1_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=cwLxysUv","full":"2x1_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=766bS2to"}}},"teaser_body":"Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.","pov":"","mailout":"In February 2024, we argued that Ukraine's structural manpower deficit and limited ability to deepen its strike campaign inside Russia amid underwhelming Western support constituted major obstacles to Ukraine's ability to enter negotiations with Russia from a position of strength or win the war outright. Since then, the deployment of North Korean troops in support of Russia, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election and Russia's accelerating advances in recent weeks have offered an opportunity to update the key forces of the war.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731452830","created_formatted":"Nov 12, 2024 | 23:07 GMT","changed":"1731452830","changed_formatted":"Nov 12, 2024 | 23:07 GMT","path_alias":"article/bracing-protracted-war-ukraine-narrowing-path-ukrainian-victory","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"209","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"North Korea","code":"KP","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/north-korea"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"}],"author":[{"nid":"335188","full_name":"Matthew Orr","first_name":"Matthew","last_name":"Orr","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eMatthew Orr is a Eurasia analyst at RANE, focusing on analysis of geopolitical, political, economic and security issues in Eurasia. Prior to RANE, Matt lived and worked in Russia, where he taught English through the Fulbright English Teaching Assistant program. Matt holds a bachelor\u0026#39;s\u0026nbsp;in Russian Language and Literature from George Washington University and dual master\u0026#39;s degrees in Global Policy Studies and Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. He is fluent in English, Russian and Ukrainian. You can follow him on Twitter at @More_Orr\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Matthew%20Orr%20headshot.jpg","job_title":"Eurasia Analyst at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1633548747","created_formatted":"Oct 6, 2021 | 19:32 GMT","changed":"1708726389","changed_formatted":"Feb 23, 2024 | 22:13 GMT","path_alias":"people/335188","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"209","vid":"5","name":"North Korea"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347080","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Declassified Intelligence display GettyImages-1225523429.jpg","alt":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","title":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","caption":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","credit":"(Photo by OLIVIER LE MOEL via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=IYiaLaJ5","small":"16x9_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=pOu9OGA6","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=SXjAy9Nr","large":"16x9_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=gXA876Sc","full":"16x9_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=VFTQ1Y5I"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=T9YHK_RY","small":"square_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=BM1cHVMh","medium":"square_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=kf6JIPih","large":"square_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=ew7u5MfQ","full":"square_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=sSrx7wJ_"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=kc5oWBf9","small":"article_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=Nj0JpAn7","medium":"article_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=YP2IueZ3","large":"article_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=WnnBVPzd","full":"article_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=aUeY4y_A"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=J-5g1G-g","small":"2x1_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=Bzd30E6V","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=as3bJWyR","large":"2x1_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=nSyAXonl","full":"2x1_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=1iYB55DE"}}},"teaser_body":"The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of \"intelligence diplomacy\" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.","pov":"","mailout":"Following former President Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, his administration is expected to make a long list of major policy changes, including regarding trade, climate and defense. Many analysts, including ours, have written extensively about what these changes are likely to be and how they will affect the globe, but one overlooked foreign policy from the outgoing administration of President Joe Biden has been the extensive use of \"intelligence diplomacy\" -- and whether Trump will continue it. While prior U.S. presidents sporadically have used this strategy -- which in practical terms relies on strategically using intelligence information to achieve foreign policy goals -- Biden has employed it far more enthusiastically than any other. Though the outgoing administration has trumpeted this strategy as a model for U.S. foreign policy, it carries costs and benefits just like any other, and it will not go uncontested by Western competitors and adversaries.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731084628","created_formatted":"Nov 8, 2024 | 16:50 GMT","changed":"1731084628","changed_formatted":"Nov 8, 2024 | 16:50 GMT","path_alias":"article/declassified-future-us-intelligence-diplomacy","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"China","code":"CN","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/china"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"540","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Cyber","path_alias":"/topic/cyber-0"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","name":"China"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"540","vid":"33","name":"Cyber"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"346988","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula","promo_image":{"uri":"public://GettyImages-1904272298.jpg","alt":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","title":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","caption":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","credit":"(JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=7bssQTrO","small":"16x9_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=N2s3qsvx","medium":"16x9_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=OZ-W7aPl","large":"16x9_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=v9o6yABk","full":"16x9_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=QSVMR1Z3"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=PyRtZFER","small":"square_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=JOqmo38N","medium":"square_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=eT8Wt8-x","large":"square_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=JWo4_mxC","full":"square_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=3U9f68rx"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=9tgr1f5Q","small":"article_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=NO6cbPH5","medium":"article_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=pZ_7aUpK","large":"article_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=iiButTCi","full":"article_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=C2qSRYmd"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=fmD2-Sk4","small":"2x1_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=TZABCEFf","medium":"2x1_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=HUCMHqbw","large":"2x1_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=mUBMIaOk","full":"2x1_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=ovAdijyV"}}},"teaser_body":"With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.","pov":"","mailout":"In recent months, North and South Korea have taken a wide variety of actions along their shared border that have increasingly threatened a long-standing, if unsteady, peace on the Korean Peninsula. These include military provocations and propaganda initiatives that, alongside longer-term shifts in national doctrine related to inter-Korean relations, have removed impediments to escalation. The Koreans are, of course, no stranger to fears of war, with the Korean War never technically concluded and the border area serving as one of the most heavily armed peacetime regions in the world for decades. Still, the recent trajectory of events on the peninsula brings a higher chance for military clashes that, even though they are likely to be limited and not escalate to full-scale war, would accelerate the formation of defensive blocs in Asia and create geopolitical ripple effects far beyond the Korean Peninsula.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1730320193","created_formatted":"Oct 30, 2024 | 20:29 GMT","changed":"1730320661","changed_formatted":"Oct 30, 2024 | 20:37 GMT","path_alias":"article/rising-risk-military-clashes-korean-peninsula","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"209","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"North Korea","code":"KP","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/north-korea"},{"tid":"215","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"South Korea","code":"KR","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/south-korea"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"338115","full_name":"Chase Blazek","first_name":"Chase","last_name":"Blazek","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eChase Blazek is an Asia-Pacific Analyst at RANE, where he focuses on Chinese policy and the geopolitical impacts of China\u0026#39;s rise, as well as the shifting landscapes surrounding Hong Kong and Taiwan. Prior to joining RANE, he served with the Foreign Commercial Service at the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu, China, and worked as a Southeast Asia market analyst for the US-ASEAN Business Council. Chase holds a bachelor\u0026#39;s degree in Computer Science from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A\u0026amp;M University. He speaks English and Mandarin Chinese and is keen on using data analytics to explain current events. You can follow him on Twitter at @blazek_chase.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Chase%20Blazek%20Headshot.jpg","job_title":"Asia-Pacific Analyst at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1656599705","created_formatted":"Jun 30, 2022 | 14:35 GMT","changed":"1673035978","changed_formatted":"Jan 6, 2023 | 20:12 GMT","path_alias":"people/338115","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"209","vid":"5","name":"North Korea"},{"tid":"215","vid":"5","name":"South Korea"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 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explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.","pov":"","mailout":"Uzbekistan is a significant producer and exporter of natural gas and oil. 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Maintaining internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers is Uzbekistan's primary geographic challenge.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1568037142","created_formatted":"Sep 9, 2019 | 13:52 GMT","changed":"1568037142","changed_formatted":"Sep 9, 2019 | 13:52 GMT","path_alias":"article/uzbekistan-geographic-challenge-video-geopolitics-natural-resources-strategic-location-russia-china-united-states","article_type":{"tid":"606","vid":"30","name":"Media"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":{"tid":"603","vid":"38","name":"Videos"},"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"114","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Uzbekistan","code":"UZ","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/uzbekistan"},{"tid":"585","vid":"34","v_name":"wv_themes","name":"The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands","path_alias":"/themes/fight-russia-s-borderlands"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"114","vid":"5","name":"Uzbekistan"}],"wv_themes":[{"tid":"585","vid":"34","name":"The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands"}],"is_bookmarked":0}]},{"title":"Global Perspectives","template_id":"template25","limit":"12","type":"filtered_content_feed","subqueue_id":"","filter":{"type":["article","sectioned_content"],"taxonomy":{"article_type":[],"assessments_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"598":"598","599":"599"},"column_type":[],"countries":[],"wv_themes":[],"wv_topics":[],"wv_series":[],"wv_event":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[]}},"nodes":[{"nid":"325396","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq","promo_image":{"uri":"public://us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg","alt":"In this March 18, 2018, file image, members of the U.S. Air Force carry the flag-draped transfer case holding the remains of Air Force Master Sgt. Christopher Raguso of Commack, New York, at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. Raguso was killed in a helicopter crash in western Iraq.","title":"More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eMore than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(ALEX WONG/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=O0S24HGd","small":"16x9_small/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=kaA1O78K","medium":"16x9_medium/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=DbYUYFv1","large":"16x9_large/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=-ShpGyYR","full":"16x9_full/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=ZfYmCNIA"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=oQ_iHCcY","small":"square_small/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=5-ehBVdA","medium":"square_medium/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=yws9NGNY","large":"square_large/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=WcPSz7wt","full":"square_full/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=OX-7ALOc"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=yFMiLyWu","small":"article_small/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=1Fg6ALZB","medium":"article_medium/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=Hc5yisI-","large":"article_large/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=IC8WmINU","full":"article_full/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=1HqGdlkG"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=NtCqL7JM","small":"2x1_small/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=qpdIUTUt","medium":"2x1_medium/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=BglVdpmD","large":"2x1_large/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=uP46Ow9I","full":"2x1_full/public/us-iraq-military-display-gettyimages-933973256.jpg?itok=A0vGY4Hr"}}},"teaser_body":"The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.","pov":"","mailout":"","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1580986800","created_formatted":"Feb 6, 2020 | 11:00 GMT","changed":"1580986803","changed_formatted":"Feb 6, 2020 | 11:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/leave-or-not-leave-us-security-dilemma-iraq-trump-iran-coalition-nato","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"599","vid":"36","name":"Partner Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"126","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iraq","code":"IQ","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/iraq"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"126","vid":"5","name":"Iraq"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"325026","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making","promo_image":{"uri":"public://north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg","alt":"North Koreans rally in support of the Workers' Party at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on Jan. 5, 2020.","title":"North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eNorth Koreans rally in support of the Workers\u0026#39; Party at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on Jan. 5. Kim Jong Un\u0026#39;s high-stakes nuclear gamble has not resulted in a deal with the United States and has only increased North Korea\u0026#39;s dependence on China.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(KIM WON JIN/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=rJM7LfWT","small":"16x9_small/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=iCyCDcJA","medium":"16x9_medium/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=gN38FLzn","large":"16x9_large/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=AkHmvaYt","full":"16x9_full/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=_PrVc1XO"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=IvrZ4abw","small":"square_small/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=9N7FLRGx","medium":"square_medium/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=hvCsljQr","large":"square_large/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=RAB_1Ipk","full":"square_full/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=cc8WplSb"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=H9KDh7GH","small":"article_small/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=XMIis8rz","medium":"article_medium/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=nW3kCOIx","large":"article_large/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=VttKSjTl","full":"article_full/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=v5hZ_RZa"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=V0MpPpCv","small":"2x1_small/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=OaNzA8uf","medium":"2x1_medium/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=76sfCsV-","large":"2x1_large/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=feol9_r5","full":"2x1_full/public/north-korea-kim-bind-display-gettyimages-1191843304.jpg?itok=OeloqI70"}}},"teaser_body":"By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.","pov":"","mailout":"There is a long-standing, somewhat cliched view in the community of North Korea experts that Pyongyang always holds the strategic initiative when dealing with the United States. While it may well have been the case in the past, North Korea may no longer have much freedom of action. Pyongyang finds itself in an unenviable position facing a stark and narrow choice: Start real denuclearization as demanded by the United States and lose much, or even all, of its hard-won nuclear and missile potential, or cling to the nukes and accept its rising dependence on China, with existential risks for North Korea's sovereignty.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1580467500","created_formatted":"Jan 31, 2020 | 10:45 GMT","changed":"1580467502","changed_formatted":"Jan 31, 2020 | 10:45 GMT","path_alias":"article/north-korea-kim-jong-un-finds-himself-bind-his-own-making-china-united-states-nuclear-missiles","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"China","code":"CN","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/china"},{"tid":"209","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"North Korea","code":"KP","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/north-korea"}],"author":[{"nid":"313206","full_name":"Artyom Lukin","first_name":"Artyom","last_name":"Lukin","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Artyom Lukin is an associate professor at the School of Regional and International Studies, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia. He has authored numerous chapters, papers and commentaries, in Russian and English, on Asia-Pacific international politics and Russia's engagement with Asia. His latest book (co-authored with Rensselaer Lee) is \"Russia's Far East: New Dynamics in Asia Pacific and Beyond.\"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eArtyom Lukin is an associate professor at the School of Regional and International Studies, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia. He earned his doctorate in political science from Far Eastern State University in 2002. Apart from his academic career, Lukin worked as a public relations officer in the Vladivostok city administration from 1998 to 2002 and at Dalenergo, the largest energy utility company in the Russian Far East, from 2002 to 2007. Lukin has authored numerous chapters, papers and commentaries, in Russian and English, on Asia-Pacific international politics and Russia\u0026#39;s engagement with Asia. His latest book (co-authored with Rensselaer Lee) is \u003cem\u003eRussia\u0026#39;s Far East: New Dynamics in Asia Pacific and Beyond\u003c/em\u003e (2015).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eLukin\u0026#39;s research interests include international relations and security in the Asia-Pacific and Northeast Asia; Russian foreign policy; Russia\u0026#39;s engagement with the Asia-Pacific; and the politics and economics in the Russian Far East. Lukin has been involved in numerous research and publication projects both in Russia and abroad. He is an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council and Valdai International Discussion Club, and a regular commentator for Russian and international news media.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/artyom-lukin-headshot.jpg","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1568223705","created_formatted":"Sep 11, 2019 | 17:41 GMT","changed":"1568232024","changed_formatted":"Sep 11, 2019 | 20:00 GMT","path_alias":"people/313206","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","name":"China"},{"tid":"209","vid":"5","name":"North Korea"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"324481","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects","promo_image":{"uri":"public://GettyImages-1185073692.jpg","alt":"This photo shows the new parliament building in Harare, Zimbabwe, being built by a Chinese construction company.","title":"A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eA new parliament building rising in Harare, Zimbabwe, shown in this Nov. 27, 2019, image, is being built by China\u0026#39;s Shanghai Construction Group and is paid for by the Chinese government, an example of \u0026#39;diplomacy spending\u0026#39; by Beijing.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":" (Xinhua/via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=C9eN_044","small":"16x9_small/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=yL5H9iLw","medium":"16x9_medium/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=V3p7JpPy","large":"16x9_large/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=fGjs_eOK","full":"16x9_full/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=Q6eOaUaO"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=u-n3uWJd","small":"square_small/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=57WMYqwm","medium":"square_medium/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=svJl-IjE","large":"square_large/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=t3mq9-Wq","full":"square_full/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=rI6BmsAo"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=imeZ27ZP","small":"article_small/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=A5BhsiWV","medium":"article_medium/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=BiM2qV_O","large":"article_large/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=FzSrbMhO","full":"article_full/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=s003qwEl"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=wSSYbYUW","small":"2x1_small/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=zks_j7Q6","medium":"2x1_medium/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=rjmtYGvk","large":"2x1_large/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=kdVU9z2l","full":"2x1_full/public/GettyImages-1185073692.jpg?itok=6o9fFti3"}}},"teaser_body":"Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.","pov":"","mailout":"","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1580122800","created_formatted":"Jan 27, 2020 | 11:00 GMT","changed":"1580122802","changed_formatted":"Jan 27, 2020 | 11:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/how-chinese-financing-fueling-world-s-megaprojects-one-belt-one-road","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"599","vid":"36","name":"Partner Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"324261","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia","promo_image":{"uri":"public://mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg","alt":"Mongolian President Khaltmaa Battulga speaks on Sept. 5, 2019, during the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia.","title":"Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eMongolian President Khaltmaa Battulga speaks on Sept. 5, 2019, during the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia. Under Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(MIKHAIL METZEL\\Tass via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=XME9Ge6u","small":"16x9_small/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=Y0S4IaJt","medium":"16x9_medium/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=HnZIxiNk","large":"16x9_large/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=cIGCHSuM","full":"16x9_full/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=x62L3HZH"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=ZoqwdOVu","small":"square_small/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=g_7-WQ2r","medium":"square_medium/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=LFEoVzp8","large":"square_large/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=RR9y1Rjw","full":"square_full/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=T9NMpLAw"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=leBvbxTS","small":"article_small/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=ypeDaLF6","medium":"article_medium/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=JoNbIl2g","large":"article_large/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=xsyRs0B7","full":"article_full/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=sjMGfe93"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=-kRBIAsM","small":"2x1_small/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=of1JNy9X","medium":"2x1_medium/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=I6e_YEJX","large":"2x1_large/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=Ow0njm6S","full":"2x1_full/public/mongolia-display-gettyimages-1166060736.jpg?itok=gn2VJ3IS"}}},"teaser_body":"The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.","pov":"","mailout":"Mongolia is in a uniquely precarious situation, geographically, demographically and economically. Landlocked and isolated in East Asia, it has the lowest population density of any sovereign nation in the world. Its 3 million people, in a country about the size of Alaska, are dwarfed by 133 million Russians to the north and 1.4 billion Chinese to the south. It also has one of the coldest climates in the world. While these factors greatly constrain Mongolia economically, it has the world's best cashmere, huge eco- and cultural tourism potential and -- most critically -- an enormous mineral resource endowment.\r\n\r\nAfter the Cold War, rooted in Francis Fukuyama's idea that the end of history was nigh, there was great initial enthusiasm for a lasting new liberal international order. That notion proved both illusory and short-lived. By 2014 great power competition had fully reemerged, bringing with it a fundamental shift in the international security environment. In the three-dimensional chess game of Mongolian geopolitics, great power competition is now changing the calculus on Mongolian sovereignty.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1579860000","created_formatted":"Jan 24, 2020 | 10:00 GMT","changed":"1579900721","changed_formatted":"Jan 24, 2020 | 21:18 GMT","path_alias":"article/how-great-power-competition-changing-geopolitics-mongolia-china-russia-united-states","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"China","code":"CN","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/china"},{"tid":"205","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Mongolia","code":"MN","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/mongolia"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"}],"author":[{"nid":"290311","full_name":"Jeff Goodson","first_name":"Jeff","last_name":"Goodson","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eJeff Goodson is a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer. In 29 years with the U.S. Agency for International Development, he worked on the ground in 49 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. Mr. Goodson writes and lectures on national security, strategic development and irregular warfare.\u0026nbsp; His work has appeared in The Hill, Real Clear Defense, Defense One, the Small Wars Journal, War on the Rocks and other publications.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/headshot-man.jpg","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1531248637","created_formatted":"Jul 10, 2018 | 18:50 GMT","changed":"1540928326","changed_formatted":"Oct 30, 2018 | 19:38 GMT","path_alias":"people/290311","status":1},{"nid":"324076","full_name":"Jonathan Addleton","first_name":"Jonathan","last_name":"Addleton","type_of_profile":[],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Dr. Jonathan Addleton was the U.S. ambassador to Mongolia from 2009 to 2012.","biography":"\u003cp\u003eDr. Jonathan Addleton was the U.S. ambassador to Mongolia from 2009 to 2012.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/abr.jpg","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1579650116","created_formatted":"Jan 21, 2020 | 23:41 GMT","changed":"1579810670","changed_formatted":"Jan 23, 2020 | 20:17 GMT","path_alias":"people/324076","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":0,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","name":"China"},{"tid":"205","vid":"5","name":"Mongolia"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"324016","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power","promo_image":{"uri":"public://GettyImages-1178208235.jpg","alt":"Russia's Maria Butina arrives at Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport on Oct. 26, 2019, after her deportation from the United States for failing to register as a foreign agent.","title":"For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eMaria Butina arrives home at Moscow\u0026#39;s Sheremetyevo airport on Oct. 26, 2019, after her deportation from the United States for failing to register as a foreign agent. Butina\u0026#39;s engagement with U.S. conservative groups is just one example of how Russia tries to exploit societal fissures overseas.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(MIKHAIL JAPARIZDE/TASS via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=ZFP-sHnm","small":"16x9_small/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=NhuSQ_0g","medium":"16x9_medium/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=SNF96UmX","large":"16x9_large/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=DMuiaLas","full":"16x9_full/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=l34mRfL_"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=oVJHp-1i","small":"square_small/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=FdyhBwmu","medium":"square_medium/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=3qD2GNzZ","large":"square_large/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=YrqRAPIy","full":"square_full/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=fwRXuu6d"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=V18i4x9a","small":"article_small/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=U921PwZm","medium":"article_medium/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=4kSqlfR2","large":"article_large/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=R16HoxHb","full":"article_full/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=TWY-A9HQ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=rYaicWQI","small":"2x1_small/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=L9abZgZr","medium":"2x1_medium/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=ix2_Meow","large":"2x1_large/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=pNNhXbQf","full":"2x1_full/public/GettyImages-1178208235.jpg?itok=BPoiK1EE"}}},"teaser_body":"Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.","pov":"","mailout":"For all its prodigious hard power, Russia's soft power is no trifling matter. In recent years, the Kremlin has resorted to plenty of channels to undermine Western democracies by spreading propaganda -- including false-flag operations and other \"information operations\" -- bribing officials and politicians, cultivating corrupt ties through business lobbies and immigrant organizations, targeting specific (often radical) segments of the population with carefully tailored ideologies and making special attempts to sow friction, disagreement and conflict.\r\n\r\nRussian President Vladimir Putin and his propaganda machine have successfully convinced the population that any intimidation and crimes by authorities are justified by the unprecedented \"external threat\" facing Russia. They claim that the United States is to blame for all that Russia does today because they have organized color revolutions along the Russian border, developed fifth columns and so on. Russia, accordingly, is merely trying to prove that its actions are a \"mirror image\" of Western foreign policy. But how does Russia go about projecting its soft power, and how might Western states respond -- all while avoiding taking the same path as Moscow?","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1579690800","created_formatted":"Jan 22, 2020 | 11:00 GMT","changed":"1579690803","changed_formatted":"Jan 22, 2020 | 11:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/russia-takes-hard-approach-soft-power-putin-kremlin-propaganda-us","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"}],"author":[{"nid":"324011","full_name":"Kseniya Kirillova","first_name":"Kseniya","last_name":"Kirillova","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Kseniya Kirillova is an investigative journalist and analyst who focuses on Russian society, mentality, propaganda, soft power, foreign policy and other activities.","biography":"\u003cp\u003eKseniya Kirillova is an investigative journalist and analyst who focuses on Russian society, mentality, propaganda, soft power, foreign policy and other activities. She is the author of several hundred articles, including research on Russian propaganda and soft power, that have appeared in the British-based Institute for Statecraft, the U.S.-based Homeland Security Today, the Atlantic Council, EU Today, the British-Canadian security project Defense Report, English-language media like the Kyiv Post and Euromaidan Press in Ukraine, the Stop Fake project, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and more.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/kseniya-kirillova-headshot.jpg","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1579624838","created_formatted":"Jan 21, 2020 | 16:40 GMT","changed":"1579641283","changed_formatted":"Jan 21, 2020 | 21:14 GMT","path_alias":"people/324011","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"323771","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant","promo_image":{"uri":"public://iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg","alt":"A picture taken on Jan. 11, 2020, shows portraits of Iraq's slain Popular Mobilization Unit deputy chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, on the southern exit of the Lebanese capital Beirut.","title":"Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.","caption":"\u003cp\u003ePortraits of Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis line a\u0026nbsp;street in Beirut on Jan. 11, 2020. As much as the death of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. missile strike inflamed passions in\u0026nbsp;Iran, the killing of al-Muhandis in the same operation had similar effects in Iraq, where he was a widely known and respected militia leader.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(JOSEPH EID/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=lSRG243a","small":"16x9_small/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=aVB9mt4Y","medium":"16x9_medium/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=YbivOSyn","large":"16x9_large/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=ib3Tq_Sl","full":"16x9_full/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=pfJLFUUV"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=1yvkQSFB","small":"square_small/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=Nd1Sk6va","medium":"square_medium/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=PgRrLjyu","large":"square_large/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=8q0TuQiB","full":"square_full/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=dNq1CJlq"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=3UWzZIac","small":"article_small/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=ER832Gds","medium":"article_medium/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=tRl9K2Ok","large":"article_large/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=kHUt5r3m","full":"article_full/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=n4lJeiCr"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=pjcankNY","small":"2x1_small/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=q1V2FTSF","medium":"2x1_medium/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=ImTeL9Tz","large":"2x1_large/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=TmEw6pby","full":"2x1_full/public/iraqi-militant-death-display-gettyimages-1193050688.jpg?itok=-doOr9nc"}}},"teaser_body":"Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.","pov":"","mailout":"Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1579513500","created_formatted":"Jan 20, 2020 | 09:45 GMT","changed":"1579513503","changed_formatted":"Jan 20, 2020 | 09:45 GMT","path_alias":"article/reflections-life-and-death-iraqi-militant-soleimani-al-muhandis","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"125","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iran","code":"IR","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran"}],"author":[{"nid":"278436","full_name":"Charles Glass","first_name":"Charles","last_name":"Glass","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Charles Glass has written many books on the Middle East, World War II and contemporary wars in developing nations, including Tribes With Flags, Money for Old Rope, The Tribes Triumphant, The Northern Front, Americans in Paris, Deserter, The State of Syria, Syria Burning and They Fought Alone. He was ABC News' Chief Middle East Correspondent from 1983 to 1993.","biography":"\u003cp\u003eCharles Glass has written many books on the Middle East, World War II and contemporary wars in developing nations, including\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eTribes With Flags, Money for Old Rope, The Tribes Triumphant, The Northern Front, Americans in Paris, Deserter, The State of Syria\u003c/em\u003e,\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eSyria Burning \u003c/em\u003eand\u003cem\u003e They Fought Alone.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003eHe was ABC News\u0026#39; Chief Middle East Correspondent from 1983 to 1993.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/charlie-glass.png","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1490884544","created_formatted":"Mar 30, 2017 | 14:35 GMT","changed":"1559233847","changed_formatted":"May 30, 2019 | 16:30 GMT","path_alias":"people/278436","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"125","vid":"5","name":"Iran"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"322966","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Why the Details of a White House Asylum Deal Matter to Guatemala","promo_image":{"uri":"public://guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg","alt":"Migrants deported from the United States stand outside an air force base in Guatemala City on Dec. 12, 2019.","title":"Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eMigrants deported from the United States stand outside an air force base in Guatemala City on Dec. 12, 2019. Under Guatemala\u0026#39;s \u0026#39;safe third country\u0026#39; agreement with the United States, immigrants applying for\u0026nbsp;asylum in the United States will be sent to Guatemala while their cases are processed.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(ORLANDO ESTRADA/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=73U6unWY","small":"16x9_small/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=6h26dYwQ","medium":"16x9_medium/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=SFr3Q92G","large":"16x9_large/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=N9LZYphn","full":"16x9_full/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=UbEshkW1"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=HDWaedBB","small":"square_small/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=9kGM3a-m","medium":"square_medium/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=cKqyZBf5","large":"square_large/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=aFtwvyCF","full":"square_full/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=NakLl5Zd"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=FlwCBTaH","small":"article_small/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=iFN9hOKJ","medium":"article_medium/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=qUuMHKP9","large":"article_large/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=YAY-SLyu","full":"article_full/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=LCcNrcNS"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=GJOYowj3","small":"2x1_small/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=6kWBbTCw","medium":"2x1_medium/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=LUcezYno","large":"2x1_large/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=9lzq5-Uy","full":"2x1_full/public/guatemala-us-safe-harbor-display-gettyimages-1188131139.jpg?itok=zDoPZZre"}}},"teaser_body":"The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.","pov":"","mailout":"In one of the last acts of his presidency, Guatemala's Jimmy Morales visited the White House in mid-December to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. It was a marked contrast from the last time the two leaders had been scheduled to meet. In July, Morales had been scheduled to travel to Washington to sign the controversial \"safe third country\" asylum agreement that featured prominently in White House immigration policy. Citing a lack of legal authority to sign the agreement, however, Morales canceled his trip at the last minute, drawing the threat of retaliatory tariffs from Trump. The Guatemalan Congress responded swiftly, and Interior Minister Enrique Degenhart was dispatched to Washington less than two weeks later to sign the deal.\r\n\r\nThe difficulties in finalizing the agreement were a foreshadowing of the logistical, financial and political roadblocks ahead as Guatemala decides how to implement it.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1578913200","created_formatted":"Jan 13, 2020 | 11:00 GMT","changed":"1578913204","changed_formatted":"Jan 13, 2020 | 11:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/why-details-white-house-asylum-deal-matter-guatemala-immigration","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"45","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Guatemala","code":"GT","path_alias":"/region/americas/guatemala"},{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"}],"author":[{"nid":"301736","full_name":"Lino Miani","first_name":"Lino","last_name":"Miani","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Lino Miani is CEO of Navisio Global LLC and author of The Sulu Arms Market, an authoritative look inside the shadowy world of illegal firearms trafficking in Southeast Asia. He is a graduate of the Program for Emerging Leaders at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University in Washington, an Olmsted Foundation scholar and president of the Combat Diver Foundation.","biography":"\u003cp\u003eLino Miani is CEO of Navisio Global LLC. He sits on the board of advisers for numerous corporations, including GAC Global and The Hague Policy Group. An author, his 2011 book \u003cem\u003eThe Sulu Arms Market\u003c/em\u003e offers the authoritative look inside the shadowy world of illegal firearms trafficking in Southeast Asia. He is a graduate of the Program for Emerging Leaders at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University in Washington, an Olmsted Foundation scholar and president of the Combat Diver Foundation.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Lino-Miani-headshot.jpg","job_title":null,"organization":"Navisio Global LLC","organization_link":"https://navisioglobal.com/lino-miani","created":"1557419751","created_formatted":"May 9, 2019 | 16:35 GMT","changed":"1564764983","changed_formatted":"Aug 2, 2019 | 16:56 GMT","path_alias":"people/301736","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"45","vid":"5","name":"Guatemala"},{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"322951","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Factors Motivating Turkey in Libya","promo_image":{"uri":"public://turkey libya map display shutterstock_1395221414.jpg","alt":"A stock image of a map of North Africa, the Middle East and Southern Europe.","title":"Turkey is sending troops to Libya not to engage in conflict but to force a cease-fire.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eBy sending Turkish troops to defend Libya\u0026#39;s U.N.-backed government, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes to force a cease-fire that will protect his country\u0026#39;s interests in the Mediterranean and burnish his regional reputation.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(ANDREY GALINICHEV/Shutterstock)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=ScE41p-4","small":"16x9_small/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=-VyOCqHB","medium":"16x9_medium/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=bEV7r8Wu","large":"16x9_large/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=IRMmNKjt","full":"16x9_full/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=SJPFwSds"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=MJh06xZ5","small":"square_small/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=PMzJzKZE","medium":"square_medium/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=d5LhhAG4","large":"square_large/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=kHDlhvaO","full":"square_full/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=uU2kMB8h"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=F9ctAz63","small":"article_small/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=TUFnY5zn","medium":"article_medium/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=OcXoW5_3","large":"article_large/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=-Ms6dCVu","full":"article_full/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=D-2AdUxC"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=wuCnlPfI","small":"2x1_small/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=HDrDl6BR","medium":"2x1_medium/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=roSK0rl9","large":"2x1_large/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=McpXJiCO","full":"2x1_full/public/turkey%20libya%20map%20display%20shutterstock_1395221414.jpg?itok=mlUOazdD"}}},"teaser_body":"By sending Turkish troops to defend Libya's U.N.-backed government, President Erdogan hopes to force a cease-fire that will protect his country's oil and gas interests in the Mediterranean and burnish his regional reputation.","pov":"","mailout":"Turkey's parliament voted on Jan. 2 to authorize the deployment of Turkish troops to support Libya's U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord, led by Fayez al-Sarraj. Opposition political parties and some observers identified this move as a dangerous one that likely will result in the Turkish military entering into a civil war in which Turkey has no significant national interest and where it cannot realistically achieve its objectives. With three military interventions in Syria, it can be assumed that the deployment of Turkish troops to Libya is a full expression of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambition to expand his country's military footprint across the region. Despite appearances, however, this aim does not seem to be Erdogan's main or sole intention.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1578652200","created_formatted":"Jan 10, 2020 | 10:30 GMT","changed":"1578652203","changed_formatted":"Jan 10, 2020 | 10:30 GMT","path_alias":"article/factors-motivating-turkey-libya-erdogan-putin","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"137","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Turkey","code":"TR","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/turkey"},{"tid":"131","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Libya","code":"LY","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/libya"}],"author":[{"nid":"287070","full_name":"Sinan Ciddi","first_name":"Sinan","last_name":"Ciddi","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Sinan Ciddi is an expert on Turkish domestic politics and foreign policy. He teaches at Georgetown University and is the executive director of the Institute of Turkish Studies. He also is the author of Kemalism in Turkish Politics: The Republican People's Party: Secularism and Nationalism as well as numerous scholarly articles, opinion pieces and book chapters on contemporary Turkish politics and foreign policy.","biography":"\u003cp\u003eSinan Ciddi is an expert on Turkish domestic politics and foreign policy. He obtained his doctorate in political science from the School of Oriental and African Studies, the University of London in 2007. Ciddi continues to author scholarly articles, opinion pieces and book chapters on contemporary Turkish politics and foreign policy, as well as participate in media appearances. In addition to his teaching and research responsibilities at Georgetown University, Ciddi also serves as the executive director of the Institute of Turkish Studies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eCiddi was born in Turkey and educated in the United Kingdom. He was previously an instructor at Sabanci University between 2004 and 2008 and completed his postdoctoral fellowship at the same institution between 2007 and 2008. Distinct from his articles and opinion editorials, Ciddi is the author of\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eKemalism in Turkish Politics: The Republican People\u0026rsquo;s Party: Secularism and Nationalism\u003c/em\u003e (Routledge, January 2009), which\u0026nbsp;focuses on the electoral weakness of the Republican People\u0026#39;s Party.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBetween 2008 and 2011, he established the Turkish Studies program at the University of Florida\u0026rsquo;s Center for European Studies.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Profile_Photo_Ciddi_2014-black-bk.jpg","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1517495237","created_formatted":"Feb 1, 2018 | 14:27 GMT","changed":"1565800786","changed_formatted":"Aug 14, 2019 | 16:39 GMT","path_alias":"people/287070","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"137","vid":"5","name":"Turkey"},{"tid":"131","vid":"5","name":"Libya"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"521","vid":"33","name":"The Libyan Civil War"},{"tid":"542","vid":"33","name":"Turkey's Resurgence"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"322116","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The U.K. May Find That Getting to Brexit Was the Easy Part","promo_image":{"uri":"public://uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg","alt":"A photograph of \"The Family of Henry VIII: An Allegory of the Tudor Succession,\" a 16th century painting attributed to Lucas de Heere.","title":"A photograph of \"The Family of Henry VIII: An Allegory of the Tudor Succession,\" a 16th century painting attributed to Lucas de Heere. Under Henry VIII, England crashed out of a European union created by the Roman Catholic Church.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eA photograph of \u0026quot;The Family of Henry VIII: An Allegory of the Tudor Succession,\u0026quot; a 16th century painting attributed to Lucas de Heere.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(Sepia Times/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=48CYUg6f","small":"16x9_small/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=K9y4--j-","medium":"16x9_medium/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=M4gUDpwe","large":"16x9_large/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=Uwh08RJv","full":"16x9_full/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=cal2Ohsy"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=ZY1y4kh7","small":"square_small/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=Ej0TZVjb","medium":"square_medium/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=U1o0Z346","large":"square_large/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=WoR_5kyG","full":"square_full/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=jOSxWXlj"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=WojHeltu","small":"article_small/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=rpv65PvJ","medium":"article_medium/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=HzyUtAUm","large":"article_large/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=JqVqKFRU","full":"article_full/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=JWHf5mlv"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=WFZu_DmV","small":"2x1_small/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=GKcUsmIr","medium":"2x1_medium/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=GLwA-S_s","large":"2x1_large/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=qCwMUZzO","full":"2x1_full/public/uk-original-brexit-display-gettyimages-1149558398.jpg?itok=anzy6pnb"}}},"teaser_body":"While there are few obvious historical analogies for the political crisis Britain's scheduled exit from the European Union has precipitated, there is one suggestive parallel -- and it prompts some sobering thoughts.","pov":"","mailout":"Plenty of pundits have weighed in on the electoral implications of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's recent landslide victory, but fewer have addressed its strategic implications for the United Kingdom's position in the world. In part, I suspect, this is because there are few obvious analogies for the political crisis Brexit has precipitated, and, without historical comparison cases, forecasting too easily becomes guesswork. There is, though, one suggestive parallel for what Britain is going through. Extrapolating possible futures from an isolated analogy is open to obvious objections; however, it is surely better than working without comparisons of any kind -- and it prompts some sobering thoughts.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1577701800","created_formatted":"Dec 30, 2019 | 10:30 GMT","changed":"1577701802","changed_formatted":"Dec 30, 2019 | 10:30 GMT","path_alias":"article/uk-may-find-getting-brexit-was-easy-part","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"102","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","path_alias":"/region/europe/united-kingdom"}],"author":[{"nid":"213855","full_name":"Ian Morris","first_name":"Ian","last_name":"Morris","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Ian Morris is a historian and archaeologist. He is currently Stanford University's Jean and Rebecca Willard Professor of Classics and serves on the faculty of the Stanford Archaeology Center. He has published twelve books and has directed excavations in Greece and Italy. Dr. Morris' bestsellers include Why the West Rules -- for Now (2010) and War! What Is It Good For? Conflict and the Progress of Civilization from Primates to Robots (2014). His most recent book is Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels: How Human Values Evolve, released in 2015 by Princeton University Press. He received his doctorate from Cambridge University.","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eIan Morris is a historian and archaeologist. He is currently Stanford University\u0026#39;s Jean and Rebecca Willard Professor of Classics and serves on the faculty of the Stanford Archaeology Center. He has published twelve books and has directed excavations in Greece and Italy.\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eDr. Morris\u0026#39; bestsellers include \u003cem\u003eWhy the West Rules -- for Now\u003c/em\u003e (2010) and \u003cem\u003eWar! What Is It Good For? Conflict and the Progress of Civilization from Primates to Robots\u003c/em\u003e (2014). His most recent book is\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eForagers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels: How Human Values Evolve,\u003c/em\u003e\u0026nbsp;released in 2015 by Princeton University Press. He received his doctorate from Cambridge University.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/ian-morris.jpg","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1421771937","created_formatted":"Jan 20, 2015 | 16:38 GMT","changed":"1529537943","changed_formatted":"Jun 20, 2018 | 23:39 GMT","path_alias":"people/213855","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"102","vid":"5","name":"United Kingdom"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"321786","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Mapped: The World’s Biggest Oil Discoveries Since 1868","promo_image":{"uri":"public://oil-drillship.jpg","alt":"Technological advances have helped increase the number of major oil discoveries, including offshore sites that previously had been unreachable.","title":"Technological advances have helped increase the number of major oil discoveries, including offshore sites that previously had been unreachable.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eA drillship off the coast of Brazil. A number of offshore oil and natural gas discoveries made over the past couple of decades had not been previously possible due to technological constraints.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(Brazil Photos/LightRocket via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=A1RFnLAC","small":"16x9_small/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=gXXDyaCZ","medium":"16x9_medium/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=hDshq68A","large":"16x9_large/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=hBvMSvK3","full":"16x9_full/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=7ID6JlGM"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=Zsvm9Bhh","small":"square_small/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=hcjWxCOY","medium":"square_medium/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=QzLNeU7-","large":"square_large/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=YyuU66a0","full":"square_full/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=iCWqsFBL"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=xSAMAtf9","small":"article_small/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=2OhBLf13","medium":"article_medium/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=MBkEWDsL","large":"article_large/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=pNGqhyc_","full":"article_full/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=GwS-ewj5"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=RpBTSOYF","small":"2x1_small/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=eqMCjMDK","medium":"2x1_medium/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=r1NAQcYt","large":"2x1_large/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=kkUb17TS","full":"2x1_full/public/oil-drillship.jpg?itok=7k0vZ4rA"}}},"teaser_body":"Technology has driven a number of recent major energy finds, but discovery does not always mean that production will follow.","pov":"","mailout":"","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1577444400","created_formatted":"Dec 27, 2019 | 11:00 GMT","changed":"1577444403","changed_formatted":"Dec 27, 2019 | 11:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/mapped-world-biggest-oil-discoveries-since-1868-top-20-finds","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"599","vid":"36","name":"Partner Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"236634","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Geopolitics of Christmas","promo_image":{"uri":"public://xmas.jpg","alt":"Whether and how people celebrate Christmas is clearly a complicated affair, bearing only a subtle relationship to Christianity itself.","title":"Throughout history, people have been attracted to aspects of cultures that wield hard power.","caption":"\u003cp\u003eWhether and how people celebrate Christmas is clearly a complicated affair, bearing only a subtle relationship to Christianity itself.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(MUSTAFA OZER/AFP/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/xmas.jpg?itok=knI6-loN","small":"16x9_small/public/xmas.jpg?itok=zkoiXzVp","medium":"16x9_medium/public/xmas.jpg?itok=N33TZVqy","large":"16x9_large/public/xmas.jpg?itok=4dboXhh5","full":"16x9_full/public/xmas.jpg?itok=w8GhJdvA"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/xmas.jpg?itok=ZAFpaM8y","small":"square_small/public/xmas.jpg?itok=bDyUgRSJ","medium":"square_medium/public/xmas.jpg?itok=hvwDtbcf","large":"square_large/public/xmas.jpg?itok=rYFXiVZk","full":"square_full/public/xmas.jpg?itok=aOGQXmfX"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/xmas.jpg?itok=8kWOfCrv","small":"article_small/public/xmas.jpg?itok=4Vt627IK","medium":"article_medium/public/xmas.jpg?itok=C_ljNBdA","large":"article_large/public/xmas.jpg?itok=bo2CLZ-Q","full":"article_full/public/xmas.jpg?itok=0QiXQozJ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/xmas.jpg?itok=ZJWCIWuv","small":"2x1_small/public/xmas.jpg?itok=8jyQdCtV","medium":"2x1_medium/public/xmas.jpg?itok=s2jciYEk","large":"2x1_large/public/xmas.jpg?itok=nnwER1Cc","full":"2x1_full/public/xmas.jpg?itok=mg1Juqzi"}}},"teaser_body":"Whether and how people celebrate Christmas is clearly a complicated affair, bearing only a subtle relationship to Christianity itself. The contemporary, increasingly international version of Christmas is less a religious festival than a celebration of affluence, modernity, and above all Westernness. Without anyone willing it, Christmas has become part of a package of Western soft power.","pov":"","mailout":"Whether and how people celebrate Christmas is clearly a complicated affair, bearing only a subtle relationship to Christianity itself. The contemporary, increasingly international version of Christmas is less a religious festival than a celebration of affluence, modernity, and above all Westernness. Without anyone willing it, Christmas has become part of a package of Western soft power.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1577268000","created_formatted":"Dec 25, 2019 | 10:00 GMT","changed":"1577268003","changed_formatted":"Dec 25, 2019 | 10:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/geopolitics-christmas","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"China","code":"CN","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/china"},{"tid":"200","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Japan","code":"JP","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/japan"},{"tid":"216","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Taiwan","code":"TW","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/taiwan"},{"tid":"72","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Finland","code":"FI","path_alias":"/region/europe/finland"},{"tid":"73","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"France","code":"FR","path_alias":"/region/europe/france"},{"tid":"74","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Germany","code":"DE","path_alias":"/region/europe/germany"},{"tid":"75","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Greece","code":"GR","path_alias":"/region/europe/greece"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","path_alias":"/region/europe/united-kingdom"},{"tid":"80","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Italy","code":"IT","path_alias":"/region/europe/italy"},{"tid":"137","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Turkey","code":"TR","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/turkey"},{"tid":"118","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"India","code":"IN","path_alias":"/region/south-asia/india"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"213855","full_name":"Ian Morris","first_name":"Ian","last_name":"Morris","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Ian Morris is a historian and archaeologist. He is currently Stanford University's Jean and Rebecca Willard Professor of Classics and serves on the faculty of the Stanford Archaeology Center. He has published twelve books and has directed excavations in Greece and Italy. Dr. Morris' bestsellers include Why the West Rules -- for Now (2010) and War! What Is It Good For? Conflict and the Progress of Civilization from Primates to Robots (2014). His most recent book is Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels: How Human Values Evolve, released in 2015 by Princeton University Press. He received his doctorate from Cambridge University.","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eIan Morris is a historian and archaeologist. He is currently Stanford University\u0026#39;s Jean and Rebecca Willard Professor of Classics and serves on the faculty of the Stanford Archaeology Center. He has published twelve books and has directed excavations in Greece and Italy.\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eDr. Morris\u0026#39; bestsellers include \u003cem\u003eWhy the West Rules -- for Now\u003c/em\u003e (2010) and \u003cem\u003eWar! What Is It Good For? Conflict and the Progress of Civilization from Primates to Robots\u003c/em\u003e (2014). His most recent book is\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eForagers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels: How Human Values Evolve,\u003c/em\u003e\u0026nbsp;released in 2015 by Princeton University Press. He received his doctorate from Cambridge University.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/ian-morris.jpg","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1421771937","created_formatted":"Jan 20, 2015 | 16:38 GMT","changed":"1529537943","changed_formatted":"Jun 20, 2018 | 23:39 GMT","path_alias":"people/213855","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","name":"China"},{"tid":"200","vid":"5","name":"Japan"},{"tid":"216","vid":"5","name":"Taiwan"},{"tid":"72","vid":"5","name":"Finland"},{"tid":"73","vid":"5","name":"France"},{"tid":"74","vid":"5","name":"Germany"},{"tid":"75","vid":"5","name":"Greece"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","name":"United Kingdom"},{"tid":"80","vid":"5","name":"Italy"},{"tid":"137","vid":"5","name":"Turkey"},{"tid":"118","vid":"5","name":"India"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"321406","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What Are David's Options When Goliath Makes Geopolitical Reality?","promo_image":{"uri":"public://world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg","alt":"People gather outside the presidential office in Kyiv on Dec. 9, 2019, as they wait for news of talks held in Paris to try to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.","title":"People gather outside the presidential office in Kyiv on Dec. 9 as they wait for news of peace talks held in Paris. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has made ending the conflict in eastern Ukraine a priority.","caption":"\u003cp\u003ePeople gather outside the presidential office in Kyiv on Dec. 9 as they wait for news of talks held in Paris between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The negotiations, aimed at ending, the conflict in eastern Ukraine also included French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=jTW9-tBf","small":"16x9_small/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=vYlVu0Gy","medium":"16x9_medium/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=NuOrhaUE","large":"16x9_large/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=knN3P22b","full":"16x9_full/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=tqjhrFUf"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=AI4UdJLz","small":"square_small/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=0t5HgF-t","medium":"square_medium/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=m8Y9m1Eh","large":"square_large/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=n8ji4Vlf","full":"square_full/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=GTyrnlyW"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=DXOMafak","small":"article_small/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=jjsRBrzF","medium":"article_medium/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=LfzFTMMK","large":"article_large/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=dO80Muh9","full":"article_full/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=4PfR7NV_"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=OdnqKP4X","small":"2x1_small/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=Apk70pFe","medium":"2x1_medium/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=7xaJEeor","large":"2x1_large/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=UgiLVomD","full":"2x1_full/public/world-davids-goliaths-display-gettyimages-1187432794.jpg?itok=VgzhR1pX"}}},"teaser_body":"The world's stronger powers hold the upper hand over its weaker ones but the underdogs may find a few \"stones\" to help them hold their own.","pov":"","mailout":"The old year's parting present to 2020 is a gaggle of what the Russians call \"frozen conflicts\" across the globe. Any one of them may unfreeze in the year ahead, bringing bloodshed and exile to innocents and threatening an already precarious world order. In some, the balance of forces is so disproportionate that the weaker party has no options but to bow to strength. The Goliaths of Russia and India, among others, dictate terms to the Davids of Ukraine and Pakistan. The people of tiny Hong Kong are standing up to China, but for how long? Who will defend Hong Kong if China abolishes the former British colony's \"one country, two systems\" status? For that matter, would NATO prevent Moscow from seizing more Ukrainian territory than it already has? Would the United Nations defend Pakistan if India expels the Muslims of Kashmir, as Burma did the Rohingya Muslims?","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1576663200","created_formatted":"Dec 18, 2019 | 10:00 GMT","changed":"1576663203","changed_formatted":"Dec 18, 2019 | 10:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/what-are-davids-options-when-goliath-makes-geopolitical-reality-ukraine-russia-pakistan-india-hong-kong-china","article_type":{"tid":"504","vid":"30","name":"Global Perspectives"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":{"tid":"598","vid":"36","name":"Contributor Perspectives"},"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"}],"author":[{"nid":"278436","full_name":"Charles Glass","first_name":"Charles","last_name":"Glass","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"365","vid":"14","name":"Editorial Board"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"Charles Glass has written many books on the Middle East, World War II and contemporary wars in developing nations, including Tribes With Flags, Money for Old Rope, The Tribes Triumphant, The Northern Front, Americans in Paris, Deserter, The State of Syria, Syria Burning and They Fought Alone. He was ABC News' Chief Middle East Correspondent from 1983 to 1993.","biography":"\u003cp\u003eCharles Glass has written many books on the Middle East, World War II and contemporary wars in developing nations, including\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eTribes With Flags, Money for Old Rope, The Tribes Triumphant, The Northern Front, Americans in Paris, Deserter, The State of Syria\u003c/em\u003e,\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eSyria Burning \u003c/em\u003eand\u003cem\u003e They Fought Alone.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003eHe was ABC News\u0026#39; Chief Middle East Correspondent from 1983 to 1993.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/charlie-glass.png","job_title":null,"organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1490884544","created_formatted":"Mar 30, 2017 | 14:35 GMT","changed":"1559233847","changed_formatted":"May 30, 2019 | 16:30 GMT","path_alias":"people/278436","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"is_bookmarked":0}]}],"at_a_glance":{"assessments":{"total_count":38760,"nodes":[{"nid":"347276","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Rundown Biden Angola display GettyImages-1823068027.jpg","alt":"U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House.","title":"U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.","caption":"U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House.","credit":"(Alex Wong/Getty 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look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","pov":"","mailout":"A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732975200","created_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 14:00 GMT","changed":"1732975227","changed_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 14:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/weekly-rundown-biden-visits-angola-von-der-leyens-second-term","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"141","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Angola","code":"AO"},{"tid":"152","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Democratic Republic of the 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Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"},{"tid":"1661","vid":"33","name":"U.S.-China Relations"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-30T14:11:29Z"},{"nid":"339707","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas","promo_image":{"uri":"public://GettyImages-56220209.jpeg","alt":"People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at \"Plimoth Plantation,\" where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.","title":"People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at \"Plimoth Plantation,\" where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.","caption":"\u003cp\u003ePeople visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at \u0026quot;Plimoth Plantation,\u0026quot; where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.\u003c/p\u003e","credit":"(Joe Raedle/Getty 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Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.","pov":"","mailout":"On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony, but few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732802680","created_formatted":"Nov 28, 2024 | 14:04 GMT","changed":"1732802680","changed_formatted":"Nov 28, 2024 | 14:04 GMT","path_alias":"article/thanksgiving-and-puritan-geopolitics-americas-1","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB"},{"tid":"92","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Portugal","code":"PT"},{"tid":"97","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Spain","code":"ES"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"},{"tid":"1663","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"1666","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"212090","full_name":"Evan Rees","first_name":"Evan","last_name":"Rees","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eEvan Rees was an Asia-Pacific Analyst at Stratfor. He specializes in Southeast Asia. His expertise includes relations between great powers and peripheral states, informal and black market economies as well as low-end manufacturing. He has also done extensive work on fisheries management and conflict in the South China Sea. Mr. Rees has appeared on CNBC Asia and been interviewed by numerous other media outlets.\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eMr. Rees holds a degree in history from Cornell University with a focus on colonial relations between Europe and the Global South. He lived and worked on the Thailand-Myanmar border doing relief and development projects in insurgent-controlled zones. Mr. Rees also worked in northern Sri Lanka assisting with refugee resettlement after the fall of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. He has a basic comprehension of the Myanmar language and a working knowledge of Spanish.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://admin.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Evan-Rees-1%20%281%29_0.jpg","job_title":"Asia-Pacific Analyst","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1415298862","created_formatted":"Nov 6, 2014 | 18:34 GMT","changed":"1656600957","changed_formatted":"Jun 30, 2022 | 14:55 GMT","path_alias":"people/212090","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","name":"United Kingdom"},{"tid":"92","vid":"5","name":"Portugal"},{"tid":"97","vid":"5","name":"Spain"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-28T14:11:27Z"},{"nid":"290404","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Geopolitical 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informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.","pov":"","mailout":"Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732740770","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 20:52 GMT","changed":"1732740770","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 20:52 GMT","path_alias":"article/geopolitical-calendar","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-27T20:11:27Z"},{"nid":"347258","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Yemen display GettyImages-2172930121.jpg","alt":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","title":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","caption":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.","credit":"(OSAMA ABDULRAHMAN/AFP via Getty 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Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. ","pov":"","mailout":"Despite threats to the de facto cease-fire in Yemen's civil war, economic vulnerabilities will likely constrain the Houthis while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to disengage from the conflict; a major escalation in fighting is thus unlikely, and even if the Houthis attack Gulf energy infrastructure, there would likely be space for de-escalation. Since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza in October 2023, Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi militants have attacked Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians. Over the past year, these attacks have garnered far more attention than the domestic and regional security threats generated by the Houthis' ongoing war in Yemen against the Saudi-backed coalition supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government. However, multiple events have threatened to escalate the conflict in Yemen, which has been in a de facto cease-fire since April 2022. In July 2024, the Houthis threatened to attack Saudi Arabia's airports, banks and oil facilities after Yemen's Saudi-backed government decided that banks in Houthi-controlled territories must be relocated to Aden to isolate the Houthis from the international financial system. The situation was diffused when Saudi Arabia subsequently threatened to withdraw support for the internationally recognized government and pressured it to back down and de-escalate the banking crisis. Tensions escalated once more ahead of Israel's Oct. 26 attack on Iran, when Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, expressed concern that their oil and energy facilities would be targeted by Iranian regional allies and proxies, such as the Houthis, if Israel attacked Iran's oil facilities. Although Israel's attack avoided Iranian energy infrastructure, future Israeli attacks against Iran have a heightened likelihood of targeting sensitive nuclear or energy targets, meaning the threat of Houthi attacks against Gulf energy targets cannot be ruled out.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732724658","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT","changed":"1732724658","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/gulf-states-work-avoid-major-escalation-yemen-s-houthis","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iran","code":"IR"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL"},{"tid":"135","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Saudi Arabia","code":"SA"},{"tid":"138","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Arab Emirates","code":"AE"},{"tid":"139","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Yemen","code":"YE"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"},{"tid":"1663","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1666","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","name":"Iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"},{"tid":"135","vid":"5","name":"Saudi Arabia"},{"tid":"138","vid":"5","name":"United Arab Emirates"},{"tid":"139","vid":"5","name":"Yemen"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-27T19:11:27Z"},{"nid":"347269","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 27, 2024","promo_image":{"uri":"public://naval-update-map-20241127-display.png","alt":"Naval Map Update","title":"","caption":"","credit":"","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=a2cYHg9f","small":"16x9_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=4fhkcWx8","medium":"16x9_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=LJllVAje","large":"16x9_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=T30g11Go","full":"16x9_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=WrgCFHRx"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=bHuvkmsb","small":"square_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=yScdMpKC","medium":"square_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=e7qvGZCh","large":"square_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=pP22P_7g","full":"square_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=vUs1NQ4Q"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=sKmzoCm_","small":"article_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=64MUWGSP","medium":"article_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=T4cBFxsY","large":"article_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=fKOyK5Y8","full":"article_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=U1PTnExG"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=HW0Ct6mV","small":"2x1_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=S852EUm9","medium":"2x1_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=DN4UdQaL","large":"2x1_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=HyYHr5P7","full":"2x1_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=fwNlxWV3"}}},"teaser_body":"This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.","pov":"","mailout":"The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732701600","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","changed":"1732701627","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-naval-update-map-nov-27-2024","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"564","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power","path_alias":"/topic/tracking-us-naval-power"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"564","vid":"33","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-27T10:11:27Z"},{"nid":"347262","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Israel Lebanon GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg","alt":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","title":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","caption":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","credit":"(FADEL ITANI/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=VTn-LJAg","small":"16x9_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=EGyFObPb","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=eFxwVVlF","large":"16x9_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=NwxwIoFl","full":"16x9_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=KS4Fs0lM"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=ZT_63OGs","small":"square_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=bFBjbMkd","medium":"square_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=2d_mJePi","large":"square_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=xrG0901M","full":"square_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=TAmByWtQ"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=Nhn0ZtDn","small":"article_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=gTdIKqVl","medium":"article_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=v8c0oo4R","large":"article_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=6M8vjv0K","full":"article_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=a5h8p27T"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=imOKLptY","small":"2x1_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=EM3U9I3l","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=QcEimcDA","large":"2x1_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=4KW3d0k7","full":"2x1_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=SpRiJS9Y"}}},"teaser_body":"Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.","pov":"","mailout":"War-weariness has largely compelled Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day cease-fire agreement that will decrease hostilities on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, though periodic tit-for-tat attacks during the truce period could undermine the deal, reignite fighting and impede progress toward a permanent cease-fire. In the coming hours, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are reportedly set to approve a 60-day truce that paves the way for an eventual permanent cease-fire between the two sides, which have been in conflict since September. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened with his security Cabinet on Nov. 26 to approve the agreement, while Lebanon's caretaker government will likely approve the deal on Nov. 27. U.S. President Joe Biden will probably announce the cease-fire after the Israeli security Cabinet approves it. Meanwhile, on Nov. 25-26, fighting remained ongoing on both sides of the border, with Israeli forces continuing to issue evacuation orders in the Beirut suburbs ahead of airstrikes, while Hezbollah continued rocket fire toward northern Israel, including a barrage of rockets on the city of Nahariya. In Israel, news of the impending truce was met with staunch criticism from far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, though unlike during Israel's talks with Hamas to end fighting in Gaza, Ben-Givir and Smotrich did not threaten to topple Netanyahu's government if a cease-fire deal was reached. The United States has in the past few days pressured both Israel and Hezbollah to accept the agreement, threatening to end mediation efforts if they did not.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732644531","created_formatted":"Nov 26, 2024 | 18:08 GMT","changed":"1732987055","changed_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 17:17 GMT","path_alias":"article/what-expect-israel-and-hezbollahs-truce","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL"},{"tid":"130","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Lebanon","code":"LB"},{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/israel-hamas-conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1847","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"},{"tid":"130","vid":"5","name":"Lebanon"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-30T17:11:27Z"},{"nid":"347256","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts","promo_image":{"uri":"public://United States Philippines GettyImages-2163859354.jpg","alt":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","title":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","caption":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","credit":"(TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=cEh7HnEh","small":"16x9_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=McPEU4sI","medium":"16x9_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=_CQda5mW","large":"16x9_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=wBVqdDit","full":"16x9_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=WCRUCh0S"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nabPp3nY","small":"square_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RwhpcWJY","medium":"square_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=dCXyKQcK","large":"square_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=9NRPwtdb","full":"square_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=e4qW4nBq"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=J7981VbV","small":"article_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=Kv9Trt4_","medium":"article_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=s09J3dk5","large":"article_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nQaxD2s7","full":"article_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=PqIuXfAF"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=fjDYNEY2","small":"2x1_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=mzKNbKVv","medium":"2x1_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=0J92Dltv","large":"2x1_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RsY6_jg9","full":"2x1_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=TPtBIZR7"}}},"teaser_body":"A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.","pov":"","mailout":"A recent slew of U.S.-Philippine agreements indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and further institutionalize their alliance before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. The United States and the Philippines significantly deepened their defense alliance between Nov. 18 and 21 in a series of high-profile developments. On Nov. 18, the two countries signed a General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA, which enables a substantial expansion of mechanisms for the secure exchange of classified information between the two countries, as well as for advanced U.S. defense technology. On the same day, the two countries also inaugurated the Combined Coordination Center in Manila, which is designed to enable real-time operational coordination, intelligence sharing and joint mission planning between their militaries. On Nov. 19, the United States then announced it would provide the Philippine Navy with an undisclosed number of unmanned surface vessels, or USVs, to enhance its maritime surveillance and domain awareness, thereby enabling the Philippines to more effectively monitor its territorial waters amid ongoing Chinese assertiveness. Finally, the two sides announced the establishment of Task Force-Ayungin, a U.S. military task force that will assist the Philippines in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in the disputed South China Sea. Together, these steps represent a transformative expansion of the U.S.-Philippine defense partnership, demonstrating a strengthened unified approach in the final months of U.S. President Joe Biden's term.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732569896","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","changed":"1732569896","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-and-philippines-race-deepen-ties-potential-policy-shifts","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Philippines","code":"PH"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1666","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","name":"Philippines"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-26T07:11:28Z"},{"nid":"347233","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan","promo_image":{"uri":"public://NATO GettyImages-2179124817.jpg","alt":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels.","title":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. 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India's water crisis is driven by a combination of factors, including rapid urbanization, industrial growth, and unsustainable agricultural practices that increase demands on water resources. This crisis will have far-reaching consequences, including threats to food security, public health and economic stability, making it one of the country's most pressing challenges. Inefficient water management, underdeveloped infrastructure and widespread pollution further aggravate the situation by reducing the availability of clean, usable water. Additionally, climate change worsens the issue amid extended heat waves, the disruption of rainfall patterns and depleted water sources, particularly during the dry summer months when rivers and reservoirs shrink. Meanwhile, India's position as the world's most populous country intensifies the need for clean, safe water, especially as demand continues to rise. 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No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. 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victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.","pov":"","mailout":"Since the U.S. presidential election, there has been significant speculation about what Donald Trump's victory means for the war in Ukraine. Trump's campaign pledge to end the war quickly, combined with his veiled threats of suspending U.S. financial and military aid for Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, have raised questions about whether the conflict could end in 2025. While it is impossible to predict exactly when the war will end, Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline, with a cease-fire now more likely than ever. It is also becoming increasingly evident that a cease-fire will likely happen on terms that benefit Russia and may not necessarily lead to sustainable peace, even if it halts active fighting.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732216540","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","changed":"1732216540","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","path_alias":"article/growing-prospect-cease-fire-ukraine","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1839","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"author":[{"nid":"211917","full_name":"Adriano Bosoni","first_name":"Adriano","last_name":"Bosoni","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"template_id":"","summary":"As Director of Analysis at RANE, Adriano Bosoni focuses on political, social and economic issues pertaining to the European Union and the eurozone.","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp\u003eAdriano Bosoni is Director of Analysis at RANE. His expertise is in European politics, economics and society, EU institutions and policies, risk analysis, demographics, migratory movements, and populism. He has more than a decade of experience forecasting geopolitical events on the Continent and has also worked on Latin American and Eurasian geopolitical forecasting. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni holds a journalism degree from USAL (Argentina), a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Relations from the University of Bologna (Italy), and has completed postgraduate courses on globalization (London School of Economics) and business analytics (Wharton, United States). He is also a former Fulbright scholar (University of Massachusetts Amherst).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni is frequently featured in and cited by numerous newspapers and broadcasts from around the world. He has lived and worked in several countries in Europe and the Americas and is fluent in English, Spanish and Italian. You can follow him on Twitter at @AdrianoBosoni\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://admin.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Adriano-Bosoni.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1414773739","created_formatted":"Oct 31, 2014 | 16:42 GMT","changed":"1677513046","changed_formatted":"Feb 27, 2023 | 15:50 GMT","path_alias":"people/211917","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-26T07:11:28Z"},{"nid":"347194","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Intelligence GettyImages-138076011 (1).jpg","alt":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","title":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","caption":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","credit":"(SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Okl6zFrq","small":"16x9_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=_Hwt92An","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Kv9EkFpB","large":"16x9_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=XeiYgQOs","full":"16x9_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Aqm9VdAn"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=vzzCgUaP","small":"square_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=ngSSBU4B","medium":"square_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=NGqzs-kA","large":"square_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=3o7XO4ai","full":"square_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=57hxovX3"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=wDu677bn","small":"article_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=YuR32u5i","medium":"article_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=RTryMTHQ","large":"article_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=T7x5p5tB","full":"article_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=e27pzCCQ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=DR_wGeGD","small":"2x1_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=uVHQ3HvY","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=cOCWPAn4","large":"2x1_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=miStMYIe","full":"2x1_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=REg86LGy"}}},"teaser_body":"For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.","pov":"","mailout":"Of course, every president has the right to choose leaders with whom he has close relationships and deep trust, and Trump is hardly unique in being accused of installing friends into positions of power. But although every presidential administration exerts some degree of political influence over intelligence agencies, at a minimum it is traditional for those selected to senior posts in the USIC to have relevant expertise and are generally seen as nonpartisan, given that the work of intelligence agencies has historically been considered as so important to be above politics. Trump, by contrast, appears to be elevating fierce loyalists whose main qualifications are ideological alignment, not experience, and who in some cases have directly maligned the work of the USIC. While Trump's nominees, assuming the Senate confirms them, may not end up being as political as feared, and though there are significant institutional barriers to widespread politicization, the mere possibility that the USIC is at risk of being politicized opens the door to harmful consequences for U.S. national security and that of U.S. allies and partners.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732121274","created_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","changed":"1732121274","changed_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","path_alias":"article/potential-politicization-us-security-apparatus-under-trump-part-2","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"601","vid":"37","name":"On Security"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1666","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"332197","full_name":"Sam Lichtenstein","first_name":"Sam","last_name":"Lichtenstein","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eSam Lichtenstein is\u0026nbsp;Director of Analysis at RANE, where his expertise is a wide range of international security issues. He holds a master\u0026#39;s degree from the Security Studies Program at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a bachelor\u0026#39;s degree from Johns Hopkins University. Prior to joining RANE, he served for more than four years in the U.S. government, where he developed analytic expertise on various terrorism topics, including providing tactical and strategic assessments of terrorist groups\u0026#39; motivations, capabilities, plans and intentions, as well as opportunities to counter them.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://admin.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/sam-headshot.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1609975571","created_formatted":"Jan 6, 2021 | 23:26 GMT","changed":"1673980213","changed_formatted":"Jan 17, 2023 | 18:30 GMT","path_alias":"people/332197","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-26T07:11:28Z"},{"nid":"347159","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1","promo_image":{"uri":"public://US Military GettyImages-1239101010.jpg","alt":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","title":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","caption":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","credit":"(Photo by CHRISTOF STACHE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=QRWdgD9g","small":"16x9_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=QxeTeoKV","medium":"16x9_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=MVEJXO62","large":"16x9_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=FLIRuN56","full":"16x9_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Sjomc_Qs"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=3rzKE0Pw","small":"square_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=rCwVxteA","medium":"square_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=q6C9SjHV","large":"square_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=7QGPGkZN","full":"square_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=-AjHpbI7"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=yS4ZLteH","small":"article_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Xxm8h3qG","medium":"article_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=6z7JqLYx","large":"article_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=ETVjmX_W","full":"article_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=5VkfZeTa"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=juCYpoOc","small":"2x1_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=-D0ZVQNK","medium":"2x1_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Q56D1jfl","large":"2x1_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Fv0fPciR","full":"2x1_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=i7qWnBDX"}}},"teaser_body":"Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.","pov":"","mailout":"In anticipation of Donald Trump's return to the White House, analysts, including ours, are wasting no time in assessing his priorities upon assuming office. While much attention has focused on Trump's repeated, high-profile pledges to implement tariffs, curb immigration and make other major policy moves, a comparatively less scrutinized area is Trump's plan for the U.S. military. On Nov. 12, The Wall Street Journal published a major scoop indicating that Trump's transition team is considering a draft executive order that would create a \"warrior board\" of retired senior military officers. These individuals would be empowered to review the upper echelon of admirals and generals and recommend the removal of those determined to be \"lacking in requisite leadership qualities,\" which is apparently undefined in the draft executive order. It is unclear whether the transition team will formally present this order to Trump, if he would sign it as-is or an amended version, or whether he would even follow the board's recommendations. However, the mere fact that such an order apparently is being discussed -- especially given Trump's rhetoric on the campaign trail railing against \"woke generals\" and his controversial nomination of Fox News host and veteran Pete Hegseth to be Secretary of Defense -- raises serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces under a second Trump administration.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732032460","created_formatted":"Nov 19, 2024 | 16:07 GMT","changed":"1732119002","changed_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:10 GMT","path_alias":"article/potential-politicization-us-security-apparatus-under-trump-part-1","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"601","vid":"37","name":"On Security"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1666","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-26T07:11:28Z"},{"nid":"347138","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Israel Iran GettyImages-2175381891.jpg","alt":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. ","title":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. ","caption":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel.","credit":"(Erik Marmor/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=S77QyH1x","small":"16x9_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=IbR9SHv1","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=83MiWWN0","large":"16x9_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Qsk4DgRG","full":"16x9_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Obqar0jl"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=CYCwhRyf","small":"square_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=EWwF65mH","medium":"square_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Do15E3J2","large":"square_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=EQF-OhVF","full":"square_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=rj2cR8wR"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=-ApEJIvX","small":"article_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=UiOYtqmC","medium":"article_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=BbU0gIhu","large":"article_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=FIMmj4iM","full":"article_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=41oFmhDX"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=_fH9RyNZ","small":"2x1_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=rRi8458C","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=dr7Hq18n","large":"2x1_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=JyD3UN9m","full":"2x1_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=I5dnc1-C"}}},"teaser_body":"In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.","pov":"","mailout":"With a second round of Israeli-Iranian direct strikes concluded, the two rivals have now normalized direct attacks on one another. With this taboo broken, how will their conflict evolve?","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731538041","created_formatted":"Nov 13, 2024 | 22:47 GMT","changed":"1731538041","changed_formatted":"Nov 13, 2024 | 22:47 GMT","path_alias":"article/how-israel-iran-conflict-may-play-out-trump-presidency","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iran","code":"IR"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL"},{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/israel-hamas-conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"},{"tid":"1660","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"U.S.-Iran Relations","path_alias":"/topic/us-iran-relations"},{"tid":"1847","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1666","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Politics"},{"tid":"1670","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"U.S.-Iran Relations"}],"author":[{"nid":"288686","full_name":"Ryan Bohl","first_name":"Ryan","last_name":"Bohl","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eRyan Bohl is a Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, where he focuses on strategic, demographic, social, diplomatic and political issues in the greater MENA region. His area of expertise is particularly on the behaviors of Gulf Cooperation Council member states, the Levant, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Yemen, and aspects of U.S. Middle Eastern policy. Ryan holds bachelor\u0026#39;s and master\u0026#39;s degrees from Arizona State University. He has lived and worked in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and has been cited as a regional expert in numerous publications, including AP, Bloomberg and Time magazine. You can follow him on Twitter at @Ryan_Bohl.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://admin.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Ryan_Bohl_website%20%281%29.jpg","job_title":"Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1523916863","created_formatted":"Apr 16, 2018 | 22:14 GMT","changed":"1673036183","changed_formatted":"Jan 6, 2023 | 20:16 GMT","path_alias":"people/288686","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","name":"Iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"},{"tid":"1660","vid":"33","name":"U.S.-Iran Relations"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-27T19:11:27Z"},{"nid":"347122","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Ukraine Weapons Shipment display GettyImages-2147868009 C.jpg","alt":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","title":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","caption":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","credit":"(CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=xUTPSdG0","small":"16x9_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=hpt68gkA","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=PT2JiLcq","large":"16x9_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=PsPslfVh","full":"16x9_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=vbzl3Aku"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=md0BSV6T","small":"square_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=VhFFJMz3","medium":"square_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=221dfNc9","large":"square_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Xj6KbmFr","full":"square_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=OUVIchyL"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=bynQG-Fm","small":"article_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=W7vfwprz","medium":"article_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=qQdLhua7","large":"article_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Cf8MLe0U","full":"article_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=ycTvIhrZ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=durWNFe2","small":"2x1_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Ecr3R12E","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=xaaj-HCU","large":"2x1_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=cwLxysUv","full":"2x1_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=766bS2to"}}},"teaser_body":"Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.","pov":"","mailout":"In February 2024, we argued that Ukraine's structural manpower deficit and limited ability to deepen its strike campaign inside Russia amid underwhelming Western support constituted major obstacles to Ukraine's ability to enter negotiations with Russia from a position of strength or win the war outright. Since then, the deployment of North Korean troops in support of Russia, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election and Russia's accelerating advances in recent weeks have offered an opportunity to update the key forces of the war.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731452830","created_formatted":"Nov 12, 2024 | 23:07 GMT","changed":"1731452830","changed_formatted":"Nov 12, 2024 | 23:07 GMT","path_alias":"article/bracing-protracted-war-ukraine-narrowing-path-ukrainian-victory","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"209","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"North Korea","code":"KP"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1839","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"author":[{"nid":"335188","full_name":"Matthew Orr","first_name":"Matthew","last_name":"Orr","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eMatthew Orr is a Eurasia analyst at RANE, focusing on analysis of geopolitical, political, economic and security issues in Eurasia. Prior to RANE, Matt lived and worked in Russia, where he taught English through the Fulbright English Teaching Assistant program. Matt holds a bachelor\u0026#39;s\u0026nbsp;in Russian Language and Literature from George Washington University and dual master\u0026#39;s degrees in Global Policy Studies and Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. He is fluent in English, Russian and Ukrainian. You can follow him on Twitter at @More_Orr\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://admin.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Matthew%20Orr%20headshot.jpg","job_title":"Eurasia Analyst at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1633548747","created_formatted":"Oct 6, 2021 | 19:32 GMT","changed":"1708726389","changed_formatted":"Feb 23, 2024 | 22:13 GMT","path_alias":"people/335188","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"209","vid":"5","name":"North Korea"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-12T23:11:27Z"},{"nid":"347080","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Declassified Intelligence display GettyImages-1225523429.jpg","alt":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","title":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","caption":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","credit":"(Photo by OLIVIER LE MOEL via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=IYiaLaJ5","small":"16x9_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=pOu9OGA6","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=SXjAy9Nr","large":"16x9_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=gXA876Sc","full":"16x9_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=VFTQ1Y5I"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=T9YHK_RY","small":"square_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=BM1cHVMh","medium":"square_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=kf6JIPih","large":"square_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=ew7u5MfQ","full":"square_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=sSrx7wJ_"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=kc5oWBf9","small":"article_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=Nj0JpAn7","medium":"article_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=YP2IueZ3","large":"article_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=WnnBVPzd","full":"article_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=aUeY4y_A"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=J-5g1G-g","small":"2x1_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=Bzd30E6V","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=as3bJWyR","large":"2x1_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=nSyAXonl","full":"2x1_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=1iYB55DE"}}},"teaser_body":"The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of \"intelligence diplomacy\" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.","pov":"","mailout":"Following former President Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, his administration is expected to make a long list of major policy changes, including regarding trade, climate and defense. Many analysts, including ours, have written extensively about what these changes are likely to be and how they will affect the globe, but one overlooked foreign policy from the outgoing administration of President Joe Biden has been the extensive use of \"intelligence diplomacy\" -- and whether Trump will continue it. While prior U.S. presidents sporadically have used this strategy -- which in practical terms relies on strategically using intelligence information to achieve foreign policy goals -- Biden has employed it far more enthusiastically than any other. Though the outgoing administration has trumpeted this strategy as a model for U.S. foreign policy, it carries costs and benefits just like any other, and it will not go uncontested by Western competitors and adversaries.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731084628","created_formatted":"Nov 8, 2024 | 16:50 GMT","changed":"1731084628","changed_formatted":"Nov 8, 2024 | 16:50 GMT","path_alias":"article/declassified-future-us-intelligence-diplomacy","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"China","code":"CN"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU"},{"tid":"540","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Cyber","path_alias":"/topic/cyber-0"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"},{"tid":"1667","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Cyber"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1666","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","name":"China"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"540","vid":"33","name":"Cyber"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0,"prerender_date":"2024-11-08T16:11:27Z"},{"nid":"346988","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula","promo_image":{"uri":"public://GettyImages-1904272298.jpg","alt":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","title":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","caption":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","credit":"(JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=7bssQTrO","small":"16x9_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=N2s3qsvx","medium":"16x9_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=OZ-W7aPl","large":"16x9_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=v9o6yABk","full":"16x9_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=QSVMR1Z3"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=PyRtZFER","small":"square_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=JOqmo38N","medium":"square_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=eT8Wt8-x","large":"square_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=JWo4_mxC","full":"square_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=3U9f68rx"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=9tgr1f5Q","small":"article_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=NO6cbPH5","medium":"article_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=pZ_7aUpK","large":"article_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=iiButTCi","full":"article_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=C2qSRYmd"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=fmD2-Sk4","small":"2x1_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=TZABCEFf","medium":"2x1_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=HUCMHqbw","large":"2x1_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=mUBMIaOk","full":"2x1_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=ovAdijyV"}}},"teaser_body":"With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.","pov":"","mailout":"In recent months, North and South Korea have taken a wide variety of actions along their shared border that have increasingly threatened a long-standing, if unsteady, peace on the Korean Peninsula. These include military provocations and propaganda initiatives that, alongside longer-term shifts in national doctrine related to inter-Korean relations, have removed impediments to escalation. The Koreans are, of course, no stranger to fears of war, with the Korean War never technically concluded and the border area serving as one of the most heavily armed peacetime regions in the world for decades. Still, the recent trajectory of events on the peninsula brings a higher chance for military clashes that, even though they are likely to be limited and not escalate to full-scale war, would accelerate the formation of defensive blocs in Asia and create geopolitical ripple effects far beyond the Korean Peninsula.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1730320193","created_formatted":"Oct 30, 2024 | 20:29 GMT","changed":"1730320661","changed_formatted":"Oct 30, 2024 | 20:37 GMT","path_alias":"article/rising-risk-military-clashes-korean-peninsula","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"209","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"North Korea","code":"KP"},{"tid":"215","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"South Korea","code":"KR"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"},{"tid":"1665","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1666","vid":"33","v_name":"wve_themes_topics","name":"Politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"338115","full_name":"Chase Blazek","first_name":"Chase","last_name":"Blazek","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eChase Blazek is an Asia-Pacific Analyst at RANE, where he focuses on Chinese policy and the geopolitical impacts of China\u0026#39;s rise, as well as the shifting landscapes surrounding Hong Kong and Taiwan. Prior to joining RANE, he served with the Foreign Commercial Service at the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu, China, and worked as a Southeast Asia market analyst for the US-ASEAN Business Council. Chase holds a bachelor\u0026#39;s degree in Computer Science from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A\u0026amp;M University. He speaks English and Mandarin Chinese and is keen on using data analytics to explain current events. 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His expertise is in European politics, economics and society, EU institutions and policies, risk analysis, demographics, migratory movements, and populism. He has more than a decade of experience forecasting geopolitical events on the Continent and has also worked on Latin American and Eurasian geopolitical forecasting. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni holds a journalism degree from USAL (Argentina), a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Relations from the University of Bologna (Italy), and has completed postgraduate courses on globalization (London School of Economics) and business analytics (Wharton, United States). He is also a former Fulbright scholar (University of Massachusetts Amherst).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni is frequently featured in and cited by numerous newspapers and broadcasts from around the world. He has lived and worked in several countries in Europe and the Americas and is fluent in English, Spanish and Italian. 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map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.","pov":"","mailout":"The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732701600","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","changed":"1732701627","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-naval-update-map-nov-27-2024","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"564","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power","path_alias":"/topic/tracking-us-naval-power"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"564","vid":"33","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347256","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts","promo_image":{"uri":"public://United States Philippines GettyImages-2163859354.jpg","alt":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","title":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","caption":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","credit":"(TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=cEh7HnEh","small":"16x9_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=McPEU4sI","medium":"16x9_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=_CQda5mW","large":"16x9_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=wBVqdDit","full":"16x9_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=WCRUCh0S"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nabPp3nY","small":"square_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RwhpcWJY","medium":"square_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=dCXyKQcK","large":"square_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=9NRPwtdb","full":"square_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=e4qW4nBq"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=J7981VbV","small":"article_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=Kv9Trt4_","medium":"article_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=s09J3dk5","large":"article_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nQaxD2s7","full":"article_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=PqIuXfAF"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=fjDYNEY2","small":"2x1_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=mzKNbKVv","medium":"2x1_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=0J92Dltv","large":"2x1_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RsY6_jg9","full":"2x1_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=TPtBIZR7"}}},"teaser_body":"A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.","pov":"","mailout":"A recent slew of U.S.-Philippine agreements indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and further institutionalize their alliance before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. The United States and the Philippines significantly deepened their defense alliance between Nov. 18 and 21 in a series of high-profile developments. On Nov. 18, the two countries signed a General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA, which enables a substantial expansion of mechanisms for the secure exchange of classified information between the two countries, as well as for advanced U.S. defense technology. On the same day, the two countries also inaugurated the Combined Coordination Center in Manila, which is designed to enable real-time operational coordination, intelligence sharing and joint mission planning between their militaries. On Nov. 19, the United States then announced it would provide the Philippine Navy with an undisclosed number of unmanned surface vessels, or USVs, to enhance its maritime surveillance and domain awareness, thereby enabling the Philippines to more effectively monitor its territorial waters amid ongoing Chinese assertiveness. Finally, the two sides announced the establishment of Task Force-Ayungin, a U.S. military task force that will assist the Philippines in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in the disputed South China Sea. Together, these steps represent a transformative expansion of the U.S.-Philippine defense partnership, demonstrating a strengthened unified approach in the final months of U.S. President Joe Biden's term.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732569896","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","changed":"1732569896","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-and-philippines-race-deepen-ties-potential-policy-shifts","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Philippines","code":"PH","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/philippines"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","name":"Philippines"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347252","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Georgescu GettyImages-2185932967.jpg","alt":"Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 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Georgescu -- a pro-Russia, far-right independent candidate formerly affiliated with the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party -- unexpectedly won Romania's Nov. 24 presidential election, securing 23% of the vote. Elena Lasconi, the leader of the liberal, center-right Save Romania Union (USR) party, came in second place with 19.18% -- putting her just barely ahead of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu from the center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD), who secured 19.15%, followed by AUR leader George Simion with 13.9% and Nicolae Ciuca, the leader of the co-governing center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), with 8.8%. As the top two vote-getters, Georgescu and Lasconi will now advance to a run-off scheduled for Dec. 8. Romania will also hold parliamentary elections on Dec. 1.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732567114","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 20:38 GMT","changed":"1732567114","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 20:38 GMT","path_alias":"article/far-right-dark-horse-emerges-romanias-presidential-race","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"93","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Romania","code":"RO","path_alias":"/region/europe/romania"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"93","vid":"5","name":"Romania"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347233","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan","promo_image":{"uri":"public://NATO GettyImages-2179124817.jpg","alt":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels.","title":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. 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look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","pov":"","mailout":"A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732366800","created_formatted":"Nov 23, 2024 | 13:00 GMT","changed":"1732366827","changed_formatted":"Nov 23, 2024 | 13:00 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ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.","pov":"","mailout":"After securing a strong parliamentary majority, Senegal's ruling Patriots of Senegal party, or PASTEF, is set to implement fiscal consolidation measures to stabilize public finances, which will ease market concerns but risk eroding public support for the party over time. On Nov. 21, Senegal's National Commission for the Counting of Votes unveiled provisional results for the country's Nov. 17 snap legislative elections that showed that PASTEF won 130 of the National Assembly's 165 seats. Trailing second was former President Macky Sall's Takku Wallu Senegal coalition with 16 seats, followed by former Prime Minister Amadou Ba's Diam Ak Njarin with seven seats, and three seats for the Samm Sa Kaadu led by Dakar mayor Bathelemy Dias. Despite political tensions between PASTEF and the opposition during the campaign, the election was held without any cases of major unrest, and leading opposition figures recognized the results. While Sall denounced \"massive electoral fraud\" in the immediate aftermath of the election, he quickly walked back these accusations and conceded defeat on Nov. 18.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732289077","created_formatted":"Nov 22, 2024 | 15:24 GMT","changed":"1732570060","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:27 GMT","path_alias":"article/whats-next-senegal-after-presidents-landslide-victory-snap-legislative-elections","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"178","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Senegal","code":"SN","path_alias":"/region/sub-saharan-africa/senegal"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"178","vid":"5","name":"Senegal"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347216","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Ukraine GettyImages-2184404872.jpg","alt":"People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.","title":"People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.","caption":"People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.","credit":"(Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=so8BMyce","small":"16x9_small/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=m1tFELN8","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=2_av5aun","large":"16x9_large/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=_KRwnLld","full":"16x9_full/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=UGhRqTQK"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=dZAC7C9v","small":"square_small/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=BMNZXhwj","medium":"square_medium/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=WrC4Ipej","large":"square_large/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=ebkjxFLA","full":"square_full/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=JRDckAJS"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=XhR18UC8","small":"article_small/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=5KBgFp6w","medium":"article_medium/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=FWBGcW5W","large":"article_large/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=MbTPWrb_","full":"article_full/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=Tm5J0nRj"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=zY3zICXx","small":"2x1_small/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=fzIoaMn-","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=VqZUM8EQ","large":"2x1_large/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=E0bpZWLI","full":"2x1_full/public/Ukraine%20GettyImages-2184404872.jpg?itok=6YgPwzOF"}}},"teaser_body":"Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.","pov":"","mailout":"Since the U.S. presidential election, there has been significant speculation about what Donald Trump's victory means for the war in Ukraine. Trump's campaign pledge to end the war quickly, combined with his veiled threats of suspending U.S. financial and military aid for Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, have raised questions about whether the conflict could end in 2025. While it is impossible to predict exactly when the war will end, Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline, with a cease-fire now more likely than ever. It is also becoming increasingly evident that a cease-fire will likely happen on terms that benefit Russia and may not necessarily lead to sustainable peace, even if it halts active fighting.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732216540","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","changed":"1732216540","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","path_alias":"article/growing-prospect-cease-fire-ukraine","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"}],"author":[{"nid":"211917","full_name":"Adriano Bosoni","first_name":"Adriano","last_name":"Bosoni","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"template_id":"","summary":"As Director of Analysis at RANE, Adriano Bosoni focuses on political, social and economic issues pertaining to the European Union and the eurozone.","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp\u003eAdriano Bosoni is Director of Analysis at RANE. His expertise is in European politics, economics and society, EU institutions and policies, risk analysis, demographics, migratory movements, and populism. He has more than a decade of experience forecasting geopolitical events on the Continent and has also worked on Latin American and Eurasian geopolitical forecasting. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni holds a journalism degree from USAL (Argentina), a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Relations from the University of Bologna (Italy), and has completed postgraduate courses on globalization (London School of Economics) and business analytics (Wharton, United States). He is also a former Fulbright scholar (University of Massachusetts Amherst).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni is frequently featured in and cited by numerous newspapers and broadcasts from around the world. He has lived and worked in several countries in Europe and the Americas and is fluent in English, Spanish and Italian. You can follow him on Twitter at @AdrianoBosoni\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Adriano-Bosoni.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1414773739","created_formatted":"Oct 31, 2014 | 16:42 GMT","changed":"1677513046","changed_formatted":"Feb 27, 2023 | 15:50 GMT","path_alias":"people/211917","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347096","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Geopolitics of Water: India's Groundwater Crisis","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Water-Series-Display_10.png","alt":"The Geopolitics of Water","title":"The Geopolitics of Water","caption":"The Geopolitics of Water","credit":"(Getty Images; RANE)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=-wYJtVcZ","small":"16x9_small/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=rFjjY-l9","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=hgwQGWd3","large":"16x9_large/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=KeSwbul9","full":"16x9_full/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=IsqOtIxz"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=3ytU-Rnv","small":"square_small/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=wgQbhGlx","medium":"square_medium/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=xE_yGuhp","large":"square_large/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=A1ft9Pq1","full":"square_full/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=HTk-jeQq"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=vSk7DzL4","small":"article_small/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=-d8EFv8h","medium":"article_medium/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=tWjWY75z","large":"article_large/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=8Cld_mOB","full":"article_full/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=a-94eHe0"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=EmDmbbzB","small":"2x1_small/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=FPGWBeOk","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=U7danfcB","large":"2x1_large/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=EdDQOIaR","full":"2x1_full/public/Water-Series-Display_10.png?itok=vuvsICfh"}}},"teaser_body":"Depleted groundwater reserves threaten India's agriculture, energy and manufacturing sectors, potentially sparking unrest and inter-state disputes in the absence of a coordinated national policy.","pov":"","mailout":"India's groundwater crisis, driven by overexploitation and climate-related challenges, will threaten agricultural productivity and energy production, increasing the risk of food insecurity, social unrest and regional disputes over diminishing resources, all of which could hinder India's economic growth and global competitiveness. India's water crisis is driven by a combination of factors, including rapid urbanization, industrial growth, and unsustainable agricultural practices that increase demands on water resources. This crisis will have far-reaching consequences, including threats to food security, public health and economic stability, making it one of the country's most pressing challenges. Inefficient water management, underdeveloped infrastructure and widespread pollution further aggravate the situation by reducing the availability of clean, usable water. Additionally, climate change worsens the issue amid extended heat waves, the disruption of rainfall patterns and depleted water sources, particularly during the dry summer months when rivers and reservoirs shrink. Meanwhile, India's position as the world's most populous country intensifies the need for clean, safe water, especially as demand continues to rise. According to the World Bank in 2023, India hosts 18% of the world's population but only 4% of its water resources, making it one of the most water-stressed nations globally.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732205244","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 16:07 GMT","changed":"1732205244","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 16:07 GMT","path_alias":"article/geopolitics-water-indias-groundwater-crisis","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"118","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"India","code":"IN","path_alias":"/region/south-asia/india"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"526","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Energy","path_alias":"/topic/energy"},{"tid":"524","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Environment, Science \u0026 Technology","path_alias":"/topic/environment-science-technology"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"118","vid":"5","name":"India"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"526","vid":"33","name":"Energy"},{"tid":"524","vid":"33","name":"Environment, Science \u0026 Technology"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"},{"tid":"1852","vid":"33","name":"The Geopolitics of Water"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347204","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 21, 2024","promo_image":{"uri":"public://naval-update-map-20241120-display.png","alt":"Naval Map Update","title":"","caption":"","credit":"","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=uho90QgS","small":"16x9_small/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=hp2sVrio","medium":"16x9_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=owp7lmcq","large":"16x9_large/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=2li7K1mo","full":"16x9_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=yXwUzWxh"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=BnBIkxnt","small":"square_small/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=5Es50lam","medium":"square_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=kEPw7goN","large":"square_large/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=bbRCBxcy","full":"square_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=YdPFlC5z"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=E-CdI-CK","small":"article_small/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=iX0vbNSR","medium":"article_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=G2WFa5ui","large":"article_large/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=wge186nG","full":"article_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=5y9tDhuJ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=BaD8Wytp","small":"2x1_small/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=B3YrBFH5","medium":"2x1_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=WUArEAHm","large":"2x1_large/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=F9tHUprk","full":"2x1_full/public/naval-update-map-20241120-display.png?itok=WVwFhsUH"}}},"teaser_body":"This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.","pov":"","mailout":"The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732190400","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 12:00 GMT","changed":"1732190427","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 12:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-naval-update-map-nov-21-2024","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"564","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power","path_alias":"/topic/tracking-us-naval-power"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"564","vid":"33","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347194","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Intelligence GettyImages-138076011 (1).jpg","alt":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","title":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","caption":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","credit":"(SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Okl6zFrq","small":"16x9_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=_Hwt92An","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Kv9EkFpB","large":"16x9_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=XeiYgQOs","full":"16x9_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Aqm9VdAn"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=vzzCgUaP","small":"square_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=ngSSBU4B","medium":"square_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=NGqzs-kA","large":"square_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=3o7XO4ai","full":"square_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=57hxovX3"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=wDu677bn","small":"article_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=YuR32u5i","medium":"article_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=RTryMTHQ","large":"article_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=T7x5p5tB","full":"article_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=e27pzCCQ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=DR_wGeGD","small":"2x1_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=uVHQ3HvY","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=cOCWPAn4","large":"2x1_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=miStMYIe","full":"2x1_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=REg86LGy"}}},"teaser_body":"For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.","pov":"","mailout":"Of course, every president has the right to choose leaders with whom he has close relationships and deep trust, and Trump is hardly unique in being accused of installing friends into positions of power. But although every presidential administration exerts some degree of political influence over intelligence agencies, at a minimum it is traditional for those selected to senior posts in the USIC to have relevant expertise and are generally seen as nonpartisan, given that the work of intelligence agencies has historically been considered as so important to be above politics. Trump, by contrast, appears to be elevating fierce loyalists whose main qualifications are ideological alignment, not experience, and who in some cases have directly maligned the work of the USIC. While Trump's nominees, assuming the Senate confirms them, may not end up being as political as feared, and though there are significant institutional barriers to widespread politicization, the mere possibility that the USIC is at risk of being politicized opens the door to harmful consequences for U.S. national security and that of U.S. allies and partners.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732121274","created_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","changed":"1732121274","changed_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","path_alias":"article/potential-politicization-us-security-apparatus-under-trump-part-2","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"601","vid":"37","name":"On Security"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"332197","full_name":"Sam Lichtenstein","first_name":"Sam","last_name":"Lichtenstein","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eSam Lichtenstein is\u0026nbsp;Director of Analysis at RANE, where his expertise is a wide range of international security issues. He holds a master\u0026#39;s degree from the Security Studies Program at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a bachelor\u0026#39;s degree from Johns Hopkins University. 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look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","pov":"","mailout":"A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732975200","created_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 14:00 GMT","changed":"1732975227","changed_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 14:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/weekly-rundown-biden-visits-angola-von-der-leyens-second-term","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"141","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Angola","code":"AO","path_alias":"/region/sub-saharan-africa/angola"},{"tid":"152","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Democratic Republic of the 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Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.","pov":"","mailout":"On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony, but few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732802680","created_formatted":"Nov 28, 2024 | 14:04 GMT","changed":"1732802680","changed_formatted":"Nov 28, 2024 | 14:04 GMT","path_alias":"article/thanksgiving-and-puritan-geopolitics-americas-1","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","path_alias":"/region/europe/united-kingdom"},{"tid":"92","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Portugal","code":"PT","path_alias":"/region/europe/portugal"},{"tid":"97","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Spain","code":"ES","path_alias":"/region/europe/spain"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"212090","full_name":"Evan Rees","first_name":"Evan","last_name":"Rees","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eEvan Rees was an Asia-Pacific Analyst at Stratfor. He specializes in Southeast Asia. His expertise includes relations between great powers and peripheral states, informal and black market economies as well as low-end manufacturing. He has also done extensive work on fisheries management and conflict in the South China Sea. Mr. Rees has appeared on CNBC Asia and been interviewed by numerous other media outlets.\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv\u003eMr. Rees holds a degree in history from Cornell University with a focus on colonial relations between Europe and the Global South. He lived and worked on the Thailand-Myanmar border doing relief and development projects in insurgent-controlled zones. Mr. Rees also worked in northern Sri Lanka assisting with refugee resettlement after the fall of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. He has a basic comprehension of the Myanmar language and a working knowledge of Spanish.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Evan-Rees-1%20%281%29_0.jpg","job_title":"Asia-Pacific Analyst","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1415298862","created_formatted":"Nov 6, 2014 | 18:34 GMT","changed":"1656600957","changed_formatted":"Jun 30, 2022 | 14:55 GMT","path_alias":"people/212090","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","name":"United Kingdom"},{"tid":"92","vid":"5","name":"Portugal"},{"tid":"97","vid":"5","name":"Spain"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"290404","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Geopolitical 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informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.","pov":"","mailout":"Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732740770","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 20:52 GMT","changed":"1732740770","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 20:52 GMT","path_alias":"article/geopolitical-calendar","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347258","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Yemen display GettyImages-2172930121.jpg","alt":"Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in 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Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. ","pov":"","mailout":"Despite threats to the de facto cease-fire in Yemen's civil war, economic vulnerabilities will likely constrain the Houthis while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to disengage from the conflict; a major escalation in fighting is thus unlikely, and even if the Houthis attack Gulf energy infrastructure, there would likely be space for de-escalation. Since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza in October 2023, Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi militants have attacked Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians. Over the past year, these attacks have garnered far more attention than the domestic and regional security threats generated by the Houthis' ongoing war in Yemen against the Saudi-backed coalition supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government. However, multiple events have threatened to escalate the conflict in Yemen, which has been in a de facto cease-fire since April 2022. In July 2024, the Houthis threatened to attack Saudi Arabia's airports, banks and oil facilities after Yemen's Saudi-backed government decided that banks in Houthi-controlled territories must be relocated to Aden to isolate the Houthis from the international financial system. The situation was diffused when Saudi Arabia subsequently threatened to withdraw support for the internationally recognized government and pressured it to back down and de-escalate the banking crisis. Tensions escalated once more ahead of Israel's Oct. 26 attack on Iran, when Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, expressed concern that their oil and energy facilities would be targeted by Iranian regional allies and proxies, such as the Houthis, if Israel attacked Iran's oil facilities. Although Israel's attack avoided Iranian energy infrastructure, future Israeli attacks against Iran have a heightened likelihood of targeting sensitive nuclear or energy targets, meaning the threat of Houthi attacks against Gulf energy targets cannot be ruled out.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732724658","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT","changed":"1732724658","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/gulf-states-work-avoid-major-escalation-yemen-s-houthis","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iran","code":"IR","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel"},{"tid":"135","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Saudi Arabia","code":"SA","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/saudi-arabia"},{"tid":"138","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Arab Emirates","code":"AE","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/united-arab-emirates"},{"tid":"139","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Yemen","code":"YE","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/yemen"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","name":"Iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"},{"tid":"135","vid":"5","name":"Saudi Arabia"},{"tid":"138","vid":"5","name":"United Arab Emirates"},{"tid":"139","vid":"5","name":"Yemen"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347269","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 27, 2024","promo_image":{"uri":"public://naval-update-map-20241127-display.png","alt":"Naval Map Update","title":"","caption":"","credit":"","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=a2cYHg9f","small":"16x9_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=4fhkcWx8","medium":"16x9_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=LJllVAje","large":"16x9_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=T30g11Go","full":"16x9_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=WrgCFHRx"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=bHuvkmsb","small":"square_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=yScdMpKC","medium":"square_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=e7qvGZCh","large":"square_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=pP22P_7g","full":"square_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=vUs1NQ4Q"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=sKmzoCm_","small":"article_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=64MUWGSP","medium":"article_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=T4cBFxsY","large":"article_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=fKOyK5Y8","full":"article_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=U1PTnExG"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=HW0Ct6mV","small":"2x1_small/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=S852EUm9","medium":"2x1_medium/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=DN4UdQaL","large":"2x1_large/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=HyYHr5P7","full":"2x1_full/public/naval-update-map-20241127-display.png?itok=fwNlxWV3"}}},"teaser_body":"This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.","pov":"","mailout":"The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732701600","created_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","changed":"1732701627","changed_formatted":"Nov 27, 2024 | 10:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-naval-update-map-nov-27-2024","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"564","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power","path_alias":"/topic/tracking-us-naval-power"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"564","vid":"33","name":"Tracking U.S. Naval Power"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347262","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Israel Lebanon GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg","alt":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","title":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","caption":"Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. ","credit":"(FADEL ITANI/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=VTn-LJAg","small":"16x9_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=EGyFObPb","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=eFxwVVlF","large":"16x9_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=NwxwIoFl","full":"16x9_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=KS4Fs0lM"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=ZT_63OGs","small":"square_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=bFBjbMkd","medium":"square_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=2d_mJePi","large":"square_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=xrG0901M","full":"square_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=TAmByWtQ"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=Nhn0ZtDn","small":"article_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=gTdIKqVl","medium":"article_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=v8c0oo4R","large":"article_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=6M8vjv0K","full":"article_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=a5h8p27T"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=imOKLptY","small":"2x1_small/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=EM3U9I3l","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=QcEimcDA","large":"2x1_large/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=4KW3d0k7","full":"2x1_full/public/Israel%20Lebanon%20GettyImages-2186324612_0.jpg?itok=SpRiJS9Y"}}},"teaser_body":"Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.","pov":"","mailout":"War-weariness has largely compelled Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day cease-fire agreement that will decrease hostilities on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, though periodic tit-for-tat attacks during the truce period could undermine the deal, reignite fighting and impede progress toward a permanent cease-fire. In the coming hours, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are reportedly set to approve a 60-day truce that paves the way for an eventual permanent cease-fire between the two sides, which have been in conflict since September. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened with his security Cabinet on Nov. 26 to approve the agreement, while Lebanon's caretaker government will likely approve the deal on Nov. 27. U.S. President Joe Biden will probably announce the cease-fire after the Israeli security Cabinet approves it. Meanwhile, on Nov. 25-26, fighting remained ongoing on both sides of the border, with Israeli forces continuing to issue evacuation orders in the Beirut suburbs ahead of airstrikes, while Hezbollah continued rocket fire toward northern Israel, including a barrage of rockets on the city of Nahariya. In Israel, news of the impending truce was met with staunch criticism from far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, though unlike during Israel's talks with Hamas to end fighting in Gaza, Ben-Givir and Smotrich did not threaten to topple Netanyahu's government if a cease-fire deal was reached. The United States has in the past few days pressured both Israel and Hezbollah to accept the agreement, threatening to end mediation efforts if they did not.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732644531","created_formatted":"Nov 26, 2024 | 18:08 GMT","changed":"1732987055","changed_formatted":"Nov 30, 2024 | 17:17 GMT","path_alias":"article/what-expect-israel-and-hezbollahs-truce","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel"},{"tid":"130","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Lebanon","code":"LB","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/lebanon"},{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/israel-hamas-conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"},{"tid":"130","vid":"5","name":"Lebanon"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347256","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts","promo_image":{"uri":"public://United States Philippines GettyImages-2163859354.jpg","alt":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","title":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","caption":"(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. ","credit":"(TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=cEh7HnEh","small":"16x9_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=McPEU4sI","medium":"16x9_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=_CQda5mW","large":"16x9_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=wBVqdDit","full":"16x9_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=WCRUCh0S"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nabPp3nY","small":"square_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RwhpcWJY","medium":"square_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=dCXyKQcK","large":"square_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=9NRPwtdb","full":"square_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=e4qW4nBq"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=J7981VbV","small":"article_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=Kv9Trt4_","medium":"article_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=s09J3dk5","large":"article_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=nQaxD2s7","full":"article_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=PqIuXfAF"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=fjDYNEY2","small":"2x1_small/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=mzKNbKVv","medium":"2x1_medium/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=0J92Dltv","large":"2x1_large/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=RsY6_jg9","full":"2x1_full/public/United%20States%20Philippines%20GettyImages-2163859354.jpg?itok=TPtBIZR7"}}},"teaser_body":"A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.","pov":"","mailout":"A recent slew of U.S.-Philippine agreements indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and further institutionalize their alliance before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. The United States and the Philippines significantly deepened their defense alliance between Nov. 18 and 21 in a series of high-profile developments. On Nov. 18, the two countries signed a General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA, which enables a substantial expansion of mechanisms for the secure exchange of classified information between the two countries, as well as for advanced U.S. defense technology. On the same day, the two countries also inaugurated the Combined Coordination Center in Manila, which is designed to enable real-time operational coordination, intelligence sharing and joint mission planning between their militaries. On Nov. 19, the United States then announced it would provide the Philippine Navy with an undisclosed number of unmanned surface vessels, or USVs, to enhance its maritime surveillance and domain awareness, thereby enabling the Philippines to more effectively monitor its territorial waters amid ongoing Chinese assertiveness. Finally, the two sides announced the establishment of Task Force-Ayungin, a U.S. military task force that will assist the Philippines in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in the disputed South China Sea. Together, these steps represent a transformative expansion of the U.S.-Philippine defense partnership, demonstrating a strengthened unified approach in the final months of U.S. President Joe Biden's term.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732569896","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","changed":"1732569896","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:24 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-and-philippines-race-deepen-ties-potential-policy-shifts","article_type":{"tid":"502","vid":"30","name":"Assessments"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Philippines","code":"PH","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/philippines"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"212","vid":"5","name":"Philippines"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347233","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan","promo_image":{"uri":"public://NATO GettyImages-2179124817.jpg","alt":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels.","title":"The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. 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look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","pov":"","mailout":"A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732366800","created_formatted":"Nov 23, 2024 | 13:00 GMT","changed":"1732366827","changed_formatted":"Nov 23, 2024 | 13:00 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","caption":"Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024.","credit":"(OCTAV GANEA/DIGI24/INQUAM PHOTOS/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=QXA1BPBJ","small":"16x9_small/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=6c7W2q2G","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=zL7xNfLl","large":"16x9_large/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=q3JW36bF","full":"16x9_full/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=VMus-J65"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=Uij_gRtK","small":"square_small/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=45QFQ0BD","medium":"square_medium/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=B4yYuudq","large":"square_large/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=_GD2miEQ","full":"square_full/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=WejXFdcg"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=ULBXY-4N","small":"article_small/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=h1IxUoVS","medium":"article_medium/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=0iDszb6n","large":"article_large/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=TYnR8T7y","full":"article_full/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=HtIVlr9B"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=D959hZCa","small":"2x1_small/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=GEM2xAXw","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=GV3y2WQb","large":"2x1_large/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=BHCnvpYo","full":"2x1_full/public/Georgescu%20GettyImages-2185932967.jpg?itok=LZ1h_3G8"}}},"teaser_body":"Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.","pov":"","mailout":"A victory by far-right candidate Calin Georgescu in the second round of Romania's presidential election could weaken the country's support for EU integration, NATO and Ukraine, while his surprising victory in the first round reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment ahead of Romania's parliamentary elections on Dec. 1, likely complicating coalition-building efforts and further destabilizing Romania's political landscape. Georgescu -- a pro-Russia, far-right independent candidate formerly affiliated with the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party -- unexpectedly won Romania's Nov. 24 presidential election, securing 23% of the vote. Elena Lasconi, the leader of the liberal, center-right Save Romania Union (USR) party, came in second place with 19.18% -- putting her just barely ahead of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu from the center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD), who secured 19.15%, followed by AUR leader George Simion with 13.9% and Nicolae Ciuca, the leader of the co-governing center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), with 8.8%. As the top two vote-getters, Georgescu and Lasconi will now advance to a run-off scheduled for Dec. 8. Romania will also hold parliamentary elections on Dec. 1.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732567114","created_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 20:38 GMT","changed":"1732567114","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 20:38 GMT","path_alias":"article/far-right-dark-horse-emerges-romanias-presidential-race","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"93","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Romania","code":"RO","path_alias":"/region/europe/romania"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"93","vid":"5","name":"Romania"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347226","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Senegal Election GettyImages-2184588885.jpg","alt":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","title":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","caption":"Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.","credit":"(Photo by MARIE RUWET / AFP)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=aLJuc2f5","small":"16x9_small/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=up4FgDAI","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=M5UDV6n3","large":"16x9_large/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=LrJNpkAa","full":"16x9_full/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=K-xWyCpm"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=pjAdic73","small":"square_small/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=epj1l2dJ","medium":"square_medium/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=zc22mJDq","large":"square_large/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=sbM5QzyA","full":"square_full/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=MySCJnAa"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=uo-m9IXT","small":"article_small/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=ncVSwivW","medium":"article_medium/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=tNuRSRTV","large":"article_large/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=YLguNDsp","full":"article_full/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=QPpxq6oR"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=5a8Kv6Zk","small":"2x1_small/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=6wEXINkl","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=73n_Qefc","large":"2x1_large/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=jrauZTS1","full":"2x1_full/public/Senegal%20Election%20GettyImages-2184588885.jpg?itok=kgB7NuUO"}}},"teaser_body":"Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.","pov":"","mailout":"After securing a strong parliamentary majority, Senegal's ruling Patriots of Senegal party, or PASTEF, is set to implement fiscal consolidation measures to stabilize public finances, which will ease market concerns but risk eroding public support for the party over time. On Nov. 21, Senegal's National Commission for the Counting of Votes unveiled provisional results for the country's Nov. 17 snap legislative elections that showed that PASTEF won 130 of the National Assembly's 165 seats. Trailing second was former President Macky Sall's Takku Wallu Senegal coalition with 16 seats, followed by former Prime Minister Amadou Ba's Diam Ak Njarin with seven seats, and three seats for the Samm Sa Kaadu led by Dakar mayor Bathelemy Dias. Despite political tensions between PASTEF and the opposition during the campaign, the election was held without any cases of major unrest, and leading opposition figures recognized the results. While Sall denounced \"massive electoral fraud\" in the immediate aftermath of the election, he quickly walked back these accusations and conceded defeat on Nov. 18.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732289077","created_formatted":"Nov 22, 2024 | 15:24 GMT","changed":"1732570060","changed_formatted":"Nov 25, 2024 | 21:27 GMT","path_alias":"article/whats-next-senegal-after-presidents-landslide-victory-snap-legislative-elections","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"178","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Senegal","code":"SN","path_alias":"/region/sub-saharan-africa/senegal"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"178","vid":"5","name":"Senegal"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347166","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Russia Gas GettyImages-2185093914.jpg","alt":"A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.","title":"A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.","caption":"A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.","credit":"(Photo by Christian Bruna/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=9zcSvKuk","small":"16x9_small/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=mOWr6OPZ","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=TokkGjos","large":"16x9_large/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=Ix0E8e86","full":"16x9_full/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=GiO2PpSw"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=YlFYmFlp","small":"square_small/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=Hb9jbOU4","medium":"square_medium/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=k0v6_6ZX","large":"square_large/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=UqoCG2Af","full":"square_full/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=3ZvEQCxw"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=7oj2o8TM","small":"article_small/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=qRfqTmKo","medium":"article_medium/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=NYim24qo","large":"article_large/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=LP5muZs4","full":"article_full/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=ZhSbXRRI"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=i_ToOEDP","small":"2x1_small/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=xO7_Weid","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=zicSRw9S","large":"2x1_large/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=wuI7R8UN","full":"2x1_full/public/Russia%20Gas%20GettyImages-2185093914.jpg?itok=0wrjd54u"}}},"teaser_body":"A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.","pov":"","mailout":"A complete interruption of Russian gas supply through Ukraine would likely only have a limited and temporary impact on Europe's energy markets thanks to ample gas storage, alternative entry points and increased access to new global LNG supplies in the coming years. Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom interrupted natural gas supplies to Austria on Nov. 16. The interruption followed a Nov. 13 warning from Austrian energy group OMV that Russia could disrupt supplies after an international arbitration ruling awarded Austria 230 million euros ($243 million) against Gazprom for damages related to Moscow's September 2022 decision to cease natural gas exports to Germany (including volumes destined for Austria). OMV's warning said the company expected a \"deterioration of the contractual relationship\" with Gazprom and a \"potential halt of gas supply\" as a result of the ruling, particularly as it planned to immediately recoup damages won in the arbitration by withholding payments for imports from the Russian company. The warning triggered a surge in European gas prices on Nov. 14, with European benchmark Dutch TTF futures rising as much as 5% to a one-year high of 46 euros per megawatt-hour. However, the market reaction to the actual Nov. 16 cut-off was largely muted when trading resumed on Nov. 18, as Gazprom redistributed the unsold volumes of Austria's 17 million cubic meters per day to other European buyers, keeping the overall supply to the Continent stable. ","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731951434","created_formatted":"Nov 18, 2024 | 17:37 GMT","changed":"1731951434","changed_formatted":"Nov 18, 2024 | 17:37 GMT","path_alias":"article/markets-shrug-russias-gas-cut-austria","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"21","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Europe","code":"","path_alias":"/region/europe"},{"tid":"63","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Austria","code":"AT","path_alias":"/region/europe/austria"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"528","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Economics","path_alias":"/topic/economics"},{"tid":"526","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Energy","path_alias":"/topic/energy"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"21","vid":"5","name":"Europe"},{"tid":"63","vid":"5","name":"Austria"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"528","vid":"33","name":"Economics"},{"tid":"526","vid":"33","name":"Energy"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347164","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Ukraine Missiles GettyImages-2184592260.jpg","alt":"Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.","title":"Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.","caption":"Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.","credit":"(Photo by OLEKSANDR GIMANOV/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=t2jryAxM","small":"16x9_small/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=6Cx0dPeb","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=HSaJurgw","large":"16x9_large/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=0w_2J3Kk","full":"16x9_full/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=ejpjmqU7"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=TDpoXEXZ","small":"square_small/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=_bSS0cGc","medium":"square_medium/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=Nsw-Ir0y","large":"square_large/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=J6AM5XOL","full":"square_full/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=OE6a9t3b"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=Uq-zvUXf","small":"article_small/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=420n9n0i","medium":"article_medium/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=K4OcUkah","large":"article_large/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=3myg2B75","full":"article_full/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=AGA_eQCL"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=ScG3zpiI","small":"2x1_small/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=Zo3kIRd0","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=xIIT6YLM","large":"2x1_large/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=IQqlRLnG","full":"2x1_full/public/Ukraine%20Missiles%20GettyImages-2184592260.jpg?itok=8o8U71Lk"}}},"teaser_body":"The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.","pov":"","mailout":"The U.S. decision to allow Ukrainian strikes with Western weapons deeper inside Russia could increase attrition among the Russian army and prompt Moscow to respond with escalation, but will not stop Russian advances or fundamentally change the trajectory of the war. On Nov. 17, U.S. Joe President Biden authorized the first use of U.S. long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia. The first strikes with Army Tactical Missile System (commonly known as ATACMS missiles), which have a range of 190 miles (305 kilometers), will reportedly be carried out on Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region in the coming days. The move comes after months of deliberations among Western governments on the topic and Kremlin efforts to forestall a final decision, but reports the same day suggested the governments of France and Great Britain could follow suit by allowing the Ukrainian military to use SCALP/Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles on Russian territory. In line with previous U.S. policy changes regarding Ukrainian usage of its weapons, the United States will probably not officially acknowledge the policy change until some time after the weapons have already been used inside Russian territory.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731950637","created_formatted":"Nov 18, 2024 | 17:23 GMT","changed":"1731950637","changed_formatted":"Nov 18, 2024 | 17:23 GMT","path_alias":"article/us-greenlights-limited-ukrainian-strikes-inside-russia-long-range-missiles","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"73","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"France","code":"FR","path_alias":"/region/europe/france"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","path_alias":"/region/europe/united-kingdom"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"73","vid":"5","name":"France"},{"tid":"102","vid":"5","name":"United Kingdom"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347149","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Israel's October Strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility Indicates More Strikes Ahead","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Iran GettyImages-2148579170.jpg","alt":"The Iranian capital of Tehran.","title":"The Iranian capital of Tehran. An Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.","caption":"The Iranian capital of 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Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.","pov":"","mailout":"The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons if it chooses, meaning Israel and possibly the United States will be more likely to attack Iran again.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731687746","created_formatted":"Nov 15, 2024 | 16:22 GMT","changed":"1731687827","changed_formatted":"Nov 15, 2024 | 16:23 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Ishiba is unlikely to leave office anytime soon, Japan's new minority government will impede domestic policymaking, which could fray U.S.-Japan ties if defense spending reforms are delayed.","pov":"","mailout":"Though Japan's ruling party has survived another vote and its premier is unlikely to leave office anytime soon, the country's new minority government will face legislative delays in passing financial support for households, its annual budget and defense spending reforms, which could fray U.S.-Japan ties. On Nov. 11, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba won a vote in the lower house of the Diet to stay on as prime minister. Two small opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Nippon Ishin, voted for their own party leaders in a run-off election between the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party's (CDP) candidate and Ishiba, invalidating their ballots and allowing Ishiba to win the run-off with only a minority of votes from his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and long-time coalition partner Komeito. This vote came after Ishiba was first elected as prime minister on Sept. 27 by the LDP, and follows Japan's Oct. 27 snap elections, called by Ishiba on Sept. 30, which saw the LDP lose its majority but maintain a plurality in the lower house. Since then, both the LDP and CDP have been scrambling to form a majority coalition ahead of the Nov. 11 vote in the Diet for a prime minister. No such majority coalition has formed, nor has the LDP secured a confidence and supply agreement with the DPP or Nippon Ishin, which would have helped insulate the LDP from budget disputes and no confidence votes. Thus, the LDP now rules a simple minority government as both of these smaller parties have only pledged to negotiate with the LDP on a case-by-case basis to maximize policy concessions.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731363640","created_formatted":"Nov 11, 2024 | 22:20 GMT","changed":"1731363743","changed_formatted":"Nov 11, 2024 | 22:22 GMT","path_alias":"article/japans-pm-ishiba-survives-struggle-another-day","article_type":{"tid":"505","vid":"30","name":"Snapshots"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":[],"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"200","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Japan","code":"JP","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/japan"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"200","vid":"5","name":"Japan"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1850","vid":"33","name":"Global Elections"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347056","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union","promo_image":{"uri":"public://EU, U.S. Flags.jpg","alt":"The U.S. and EU flags.","title":"The U.S. and EU flags.","caption":"The U.S. and EU flags.","credit":"(Gizmo/Getty)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=h-R964tT","small":"16x9_small/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=KFN9KvFN","medium":"16x9_medium/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=lWf_pYLP","large":"16x9_large/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=ctZzIvvQ","full":"16x9_full/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=mBetcPJi"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=FpG-tS37","small":"square_small/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=0c8k5mGP","medium":"square_medium/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=OML4wX1M","large":"square_large/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=Yh8cGTRN","full":"square_full/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=F-esiEX4"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=Xmoiiuip","small":"article_small/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=yjhwAv6j","medium":"article_medium/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=VRI5dV_m","large":"article_large/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=K751Ba7p","full":"article_full/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=Ni9vIsTE"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=NRgF9pmg","small":"2x1_small/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=_nK5-t7k","medium":"2x1_medium/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=LzYFRZaR","large":"2x1_large/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=1Y_IdWGh","full":"2x1_full/public/EU%2C%20U.S.%20Flags.jpg?itok=xqJLYCUZ"}}},"teaser_body":"Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 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and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.","pov":"","mailout":"Though Japan and South Korea present an extreme demographic outlook and have sociocultural, political, economic and security nuances that deserve consideration, they set the blueprint for how the military must contend with stiff competition for human resources, a reconceptualization of manpower and replacement potential of physical personnel.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732878000","created_formatted":"Nov 29, 2024 | 11:00 GMT","changed":"1732878027","changed_formatted":"Nov 29, 2024 | 11:00 GMT","path_alias":"article/demographic-decline-and-military-manpower-understanding-shifting-role-people-conflict","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On 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victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.","pov":"","mailout":"Since the U.S. presidential election, there has been significant speculation about what Donald Trump's victory means for the war in Ukraine. Trump's campaign pledge to end the war quickly, combined with his veiled threats of suspending U.S. financial and military aid for Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, have raised questions about whether the conflict could end in 2025. While it is impossible to predict exactly when the war will end, Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline, with a cease-fire now more likely than ever. It is also becoming increasingly evident that a cease-fire will likely happen on terms that benefit Russia and may not necessarily lead to sustainable peace, even if it halts active fighting.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732216540","created_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","changed":"1732216540","changed_formatted":"Nov 21, 2024 | 19:15 GMT","path_alias":"article/growing-prospect-cease-fire-ukraine","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"}],"author":[{"nid":"211917","full_name":"Adriano Bosoni","first_name":"Adriano","last_name":"Bosoni","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"template_id":"","summary":"As Director of Analysis at RANE, Adriano Bosoni focuses on political, social and economic issues pertaining to the European Union and the eurozone.","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp\u003eAdriano Bosoni is Director of Analysis at RANE. His expertise is in European politics, economics and society, EU institutions and policies, risk analysis, demographics, migratory movements, and populism. He has more than a decade of experience forecasting geopolitical events on the Continent and has also worked on Latin American and Eurasian geopolitical forecasting. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni holds a journalism degree from USAL (Argentina), a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Relations from the University of Bologna (Italy), and has completed postgraduate courses on globalization (London School of Economics) and business analytics (Wharton, United States). He is also a former Fulbright scholar (University of Massachusetts Amherst).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMr. Bosoni is frequently featured in and cited by numerous newspapers and broadcasts from around the world. He has lived and worked in several countries in Europe and the Americas and is fluent in English, Spanish and Italian. You can follow him on Twitter at @AdrianoBosoni\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Adriano-Bosoni.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1414773739","created_formatted":"Oct 31, 2014 | 16:42 GMT","changed":"1677513046","changed_formatted":"Feb 27, 2023 | 15:50 GMT","path_alias":"people/211917","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347194","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Intelligence GettyImages-138076011 (1).jpg","alt":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","title":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","caption":"The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.","credit":"(SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Okl6zFrq","small":"16x9_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=_Hwt92An","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Kv9EkFpB","large":"16x9_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=XeiYgQOs","full":"16x9_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=Aqm9VdAn"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=vzzCgUaP","small":"square_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=ngSSBU4B","medium":"square_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=NGqzs-kA","large":"square_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=3o7XO4ai","full":"square_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=57hxovX3"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=wDu677bn","small":"article_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=YuR32u5i","medium":"article_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=RTryMTHQ","large":"article_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=T7x5p5tB","full":"article_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=e27pzCCQ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=DR_wGeGD","small":"2x1_small/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=uVHQ3HvY","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=cOCWPAn4","large":"2x1_large/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=miStMYIe","full":"2x1_full/public/Intelligence%20GettyImages-138076011%20%281%29.jpg?itok=REg86LGy"}}},"teaser_body":"For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.","pov":"","mailout":"Of course, every president has the right to choose leaders with whom he has close relationships and deep trust, and Trump is hardly unique in being accused of installing friends into positions of power. But although every presidential administration exerts some degree of political influence over intelligence agencies, at a minimum it is traditional for those selected to senior posts in the USIC to have relevant expertise and are generally seen as nonpartisan, given that the work of intelligence agencies has historically been considered as so important to be above politics. Trump, by contrast, appears to be elevating fierce loyalists whose main qualifications are ideological alignment, not experience, and who in some cases have directly maligned the work of the USIC. While Trump's nominees, assuming the Senate confirms them, may not end up being as political as feared, and though there are significant institutional barriers to widespread politicization, the mere possibility that the USIC is at risk of being politicized opens the door to harmful consequences for U.S. national security and that of U.S. allies and partners.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732121274","created_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","changed":"1732121274","changed_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT","path_alias":"article/potential-politicization-us-security-apparatus-under-trump-part-2","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"601","vid":"37","name":"On Security"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"332197","full_name":"Sam Lichtenstein","first_name":"Sam","last_name":"Lichtenstein","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eSam Lichtenstein is\u0026nbsp;Director of Analysis at RANE, where his expertise is a wide range of international security issues. He holds a master\u0026#39;s degree from the Security Studies Program at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a bachelor\u0026#39;s degree from Johns Hopkins University. Prior to joining RANE, he served for more than four years in the U.S. government, where he developed analytic expertise on various terrorism topics, including providing tactical and strategic assessments of terrorist groups\u0026#39; motivations, capabilities, plans and intentions, as well as opportunities to counter them.\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/sam-headshot.jpg","job_title":"Director of Analysis at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1609975571","created_formatted":"Jan 6, 2021 | 23:26 GMT","changed":"1673980213","changed_formatted":"Jan 17, 2023 | 18:30 GMT","path_alias":"people/332197","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347159","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1","promo_image":{"uri":"public://US Military GettyImages-1239101010.jpg","alt":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","title":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","caption":"A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.","credit":"(Photo by CHRISTOF STACHE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=QRWdgD9g","small":"16x9_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=QxeTeoKV","medium":"16x9_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=MVEJXO62","large":"16x9_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=FLIRuN56","full":"16x9_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Sjomc_Qs"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=3rzKE0Pw","small":"square_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=rCwVxteA","medium":"square_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=q6C9SjHV","large":"square_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=7QGPGkZN","full":"square_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=-AjHpbI7"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=yS4ZLteH","small":"article_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Xxm8h3qG","medium":"article_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=6z7JqLYx","large":"article_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=ETVjmX_W","full":"article_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=5VkfZeTa"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=juCYpoOc","small":"2x1_small/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=-D0ZVQNK","medium":"2x1_medium/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Q56D1jfl","large":"2x1_large/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=Fv0fPciR","full":"2x1_full/public/US%20Military%20GettyImages-1239101010.jpg?itok=i7qWnBDX"}}},"teaser_body":"Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.","pov":"","mailout":"In anticipation of Donald Trump's return to the White House, analysts, including ours, are wasting no time in assessing his priorities upon assuming office. While much attention has focused on Trump's repeated, high-profile pledges to implement tariffs, curb immigration and make other major policy moves, a comparatively less scrutinized area is Trump's plan for the U.S. military. On Nov. 12, The Wall Street Journal published a major scoop indicating that Trump's transition team is considering a draft executive order that would create a \"warrior board\" of retired senior military officers. These individuals would be empowered to review the upper echelon of admirals and generals and recommend the removal of those determined to be \"lacking in requisite leadership qualities,\" which is apparently undefined in the draft executive order. It is unclear whether the transition team will formally present this order to Trump, if he would sign it as-is or an amended version, or whether he would even follow the board's recommendations. However, the mere fact that such an order apparently is being discussed -- especially given Trump's rhetoric on the campaign trail railing against \"woke generals\" and his controversial nomination of Fox News host and veteran Pete Hegseth to be Secretary of Defense -- raises serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces under a second Trump administration.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1732032460","created_formatted":"Nov 19, 2024 | 16:07 GMT","changed":"1732119002","changed_formatted":"Nov 20, 2024 | 16:10 GMT","path_alias":"article/potential-politicization-us-security-apparatus-under-trump-part-1","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"601","vid":"37","name":"On Security"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347138","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Israel Iran GettyImages-2175381891.jpg","alt":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. ","title":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. ","caption":"An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel.","credit":"(Erik Marmor/Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=S77QyH1x","small":"16x9_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=IbR9SHv1","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=83MiWWN0","large":"16x9_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Qsk4DgRG","full":"16x9_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Obqar0jl"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=CYCwhRyf","small":"square_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=EWwF65mH","medium":"square_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=Do15E3J2","large":"square_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=EQF-OhVF","full":"square_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=rj2cR8wR"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=-ApEJIvX","small":"article_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=UiOYtqmC","medium":"article_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=BbU0gIhu","large":"article_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=FIMmj4iM","full":"article_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=41oFmhDX"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=_fH9RyNZ","small":"2x1_small/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=rRi8458C","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=dr7Hq18n","large":"2x1_large/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=JyD3UN9m","full":"2x1_full/public/Israel%20Iran%20GettyImages-2175381891.jpg?itok=I5dnc1-C"}}},"teaser_body":"In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.","pov":"","mailout":"With a second round of Israeli-Iranian direct strikes concluded, the two rivals have now normalized direct attacks on one another. With this taboo broken, how will their conflict evolve?","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731538041","created_formatted":"Nov 13, 2024 | 22:47 GMT","changed":"1731538041","changed_formatted":"Nov 13, 2024 | 22:47 GMT","path_alias":"article/how-israel-iran-conflict-may-play-out-trump-presidency","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Iran","code":"IR","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Israel","code":"IL","path_alias":"/region/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel"},{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/israel-hamas-conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[{"nid":"288686","full_name":"Ryan Bohl","first_name":"Ryan","last_name":"Bohl","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cdiv\u003eRyan Bohl is a Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, where he focuses on strategic, demographic, social, diplomatic and political issues in the greater MENA region. His area of expertise is particularly on the behaviors of Gulf Cooperation Council member states, the Levant, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Yemen, and aspects of U.S. Middle Eastern policy. Ryan holds bachelor\u0026#39;s and master\u0026#39;s degrees from Arizona State University. He has lived and worked in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and has been cited as a regional expert in numerous publications, including AP, Bloomberg and Time magazine. You can follow him on Twitter at @Ryan_Bohl.\u003c/div\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Ryan_Bohl_website%20%281%29.jpg","job_title":"Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1523916863","created_formatted":"Apr 16, 2018 | 22:14 GMT","changed":"1673036183","changed_formatted":"Jan 6, 2023 | 20:16 GMT","path_alias":"people/288686","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"125","vid":"5","name":"Iran"},{"tid":"127","vid":"5","name":"Israel"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"1848","vid":"33","name":"Israel-Hamas Conflict"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"},{"tid":"1660","vid":"33","name":"U.S.-Iran Relations"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347122","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Ukraine Weapons Shipment display GettyImages-2147868009 C.jpg","alt":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","title":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","caption":"On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.","credit":"(CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=xUTPSdG0","small":"16x9_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=hpt68gkA","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=PT2JiLcq","large":"16x9_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=PsPslfVh","full":"16x9_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=vbzl3Aku"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=md0BSV6T","small":"square_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=VhFFJMz3","medium":"square_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=221dfNc9","large":"square_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Xj6KbmFr","full":"square_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=OUVIchyL"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=bynQG-Fm","small":"article_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=W7vfwprz","medium":"article_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=qQdLhua7","large":"article_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Cf8MLe0U","full":"article_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=ycTvIhrZ"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=durWNFe2","small":"2x1_small/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=Ecr3R12E","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=xaaj-HCU","large":"2x1_large/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=cwLxysUv","full":"2x1_full/public/Ukraine%20Weapons%20Shipment%20display%20GettyImages-2147868009%20C.jpg?itok=766bS2to"}}},"teaser_body":"Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.","pov":"","mailout":"In February 2024, we argued that Ukraine's structural manpower deficit and limited ability to deepen its strike campaign inside Russia amid underwhelming Western support constituted major obstacles to Ukraine's ability to enter negotiations with Russia from a position of strength or win the war outright. Since then, the deployment of North Korean troops in support of Russia, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election and Russia's accelerating advances in recent weeks have offered an opportunity to update the key forces of the war.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731452830","created_formatted":"Nov 12, 2024 | 23:07 GMT","changed":"1731452830","changed_formatted":"Nov 12, 2024 | 23:07 GMT","path_alias":"article/bracing-protracted-war-ukraine-narrowing-path-ukrainian-victory","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"209","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"North Korea","code":"KP","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/north-korea"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Ukraine","code":"UA","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict","path_alias":"/topic/russia-ukraine-conflict"}],"author":[{"nid":"335188","full_name":"Matthew Orr","first_name":"Matthew","last_name":"Orr","type_of_profile":[{"tid":"315","vid":"14","name":"Analyst"}],"column_type":[],"template_id":"","summary":"","biography":"\u003cp\u003eMatthew Orr is a Eurasia analyst at RANE, focusing on analysis of geopolitical, political, economic and security issues in Eurasia. Prior to RANE, Matt lived and worked in Russia, where he taught English through the Fulbright English Teaching Assistant program. Matt holds a bachelor\u0026#39;s\u0026nbsp;in Russian Language and Literature from George Washington University and dual master\u0026#39;s degrees in Global Policy Studies and Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. He is fluent in English, Russian and Ukrainian. You can follow him on Twitter at @More_Orr\u003c/p\u003e","photo":"https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Matthew%20Orr%20headshot.jpg","job_title":"Eurasia Analyst at RANE","organization":null,"organization_link":"","created":"1633548747","created_formatted":"Oct 6, 2021 | 19:32 GMT","changed":"1708726389","changed_formatted":"Feb 23, 2024 | 22:13 GMT","path_alias":"people/335188","status":1}],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"209","vid":"5","name":"North Korea"},{"tid":"113","vid":"5","name":"Ukraine"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"1840","vid":"33","name":"Russia-Ukraine Conflict"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"347080","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'","promo_image":{"uri":"public://Declassified Intelligence display GettyImages-1225523429.jpg","alt":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","title":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","caption":"3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word \"declassified\" printed on a document.","credit":"(Photo by OLIVIER LE MOEL via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=IYiaLaJ5","small":"16x9_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=pOu9OGA6","medium":"16x9_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=SXjAy9Nr","large":"16x9_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=gXA876Sc","full":"16x9_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=VFTQ1Y5I"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=T9YHK_RY","small":"square_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=BM1cHVMh","medium":"square_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=kf6JIPih","large":"square_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=ew7u5MfQ","full":"square_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=sSrx7wJ_"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=kc5oWBf9","small":"article_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=Nj0JpAn7","medium":"article_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=YP2IueZ3","large":"article_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=WnnBVPzd","full":"article_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=aUeY4y_A"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=J-5g1G-g","small":"2x1_small/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=Bzd30E6V","medium":"2x1_medium/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=as3bJWyR","large":"2x1_large/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=nSyAXonl","full":"2x1_full/public/Declassified%20Intelligence%20display%20GettyImages-1225523429.jpg?itok=1iYB55DE"}}},"teaser_body":"The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of \"intelligence diplomacy\" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.","pov":"","mailout":"Following former President Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, his administration is expected to make a long list of major policy changes, including regarding trade, climate and defense. Many analysts, including ours, have written extensively about what these changes are likely to be and how they will affect the globe, but one overlooked foreign policy from the outgoing administration of President Joe Biden has been the extensive use of \"intelligence diplomacy\" -- and whether Trump will continue it. While prior U.S. presidents sporadically have used this strategy -- which in practical terms relies on strategically using intelligence information to achieve foreign policy goals -- Biden has employed it far more enthusiastically than any other. Though the outgoing administration has trumpeted this strategy as a model for U.S. foreign policy, it carries costs and benefits just like any other, and it will not go uncontested by Western competitors and adversaries.","overview":"","youtube_video_url":"","created":"1731084628","created_formatted":"Nov 8, 2024 | 16:50 GMT","changed":"1731084628","changed_formatted":"Nov 8, 2024 | 16:50 GMT","path_alias":"article/declassified-future-us-intelligence-diplomacy","article_type":{"tid":"506","vid":"30","name":"Columns"},"assessments_type":[],"column_type":{"tid":"600","vid":"37","name":"On Geopolitics"},"media_type":[],"global_perspectives_type":[],"sectioned_content_type":[],"forecast_type":[],"www_public_postings_type":[],"source":"","www_site_page_type":[],"taxonomy":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"United States","code":"US","path_alias":"/region/americas/united-states"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"China","code":"CN","path_alias":"/region/asia-pacific/china"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","v_name":"countries","name":"Russia","code":"RU","path_alias":"/region/eurasia/russia"},{"tid":"540","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Cyber","path_alias":"/topic/cyber-0"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Military \u0026 Security","path_alias":"/topic/military-security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","v_name":"wv_topics","name":"Politics","path_alias":"/topic/politics"}],"author":[],"pdf":"","status":1,"premium":1,"countries":[{"tid":"59","vid":"5","name":"United States"},{"tid":"195","vid":"5","name":"China"},{"tid":"110","vid":"5","name":"Russia"}],"wv_topics":[{"tid":"540","vid":"33","name":"Cyber"},{"tid":"529","vid":"33","name":"Military \u0026 Security"},{"tid":"530","vid":"33","name":"Politics"}],"is_bookmarked":0},{"nid":"346988","type":"article","ntype":"worldview","title":"The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula","promo_image":{"uri":"public://GettyImages-1904272298.jpg","alt":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","title":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","caption":"People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.","credit":"(JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images)","sizes":{"16x9":{"tiny":"16x9_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=7bssQTrO","small":"16x9_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=N2s3qsvx","medium":"16x9_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=OZ-W7aPl","large":"16x9_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=v9o6yABk","full":"16x9_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=QSVMR1Z3"},"square":{"tiny":"square_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=PyRtZFER","small":"square_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=JOqmo38N","medium":"square_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=eT8Wt8-x","large":"square_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=JWo4_mxC","full":"square_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=3U9f68rx"},"article":{"tiny":"article_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=9tgr1f5Q","small":"article_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=NO6cbPH5","medium":"article_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=pZ_7aUpK","large":"article_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=iiButTCi","full":"article_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=C2qSRYmd"},"2x1":{"tiny":"2x1_tiny/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=fmD2-Sk4","small":"2x1_small/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=TZABCEFf","medium":"2x1_medium/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=HUCMHqbw","large":"2x1_large/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=mUBMIaOk","full":"2x1_full/public/GettyImages-1904272298.jpg?itok=ovAdijyV"}}},"teaser_body":"With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.","pov":"","mailout":"In recent months, North and South Korea have taken a wide variety of actions along their shared border that have increasingly threatened a long-standing, if unsteady, peace on the Korean Peninsula. These include military provocations and propaganda initiatives that, alongside longer-term shifts in national doctrine related to inter-Korean relations, have removed impediments to escalation. The Koreans are, of course, no stranger to fears of war, with the Korean War never technically concluded and the border area serving as one of the most heavily armed peacetime regions in the world for decades. 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Prior to joining RANE, he served with the Foreign Commercial Service at the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu, China, and worked as a Southeast Asia market analyst for the US-ASEAN Business Council. Chase holds a bachelor\u0026#39;s degree in Computer Science from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and a master\u0026#39;s degree in International Affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A\u0026amp;M University. He speaks English and Mandarin Chinese and is keen on using data analytics to explain current events. 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