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fs-headline__standard">Angels’ Signing Of Yusei Kikuchi Brings Both Upside And Risk</h1></div></div><div class="top-contrib-block" style="border-color: "><div class="contribs"><div class="contrib-container top-contrib bottom-padding"><div class="fs-author-group-wrapper"><div class="contrib-byline has-follow-button"><div class="fs-author-wrapper"><span class="fs-author-name"><a class="contrib-link--name remove-underline author-name--tracking not-premium-contrib-link--name" data-ga-track="contrib block byline" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/" aria-label="Tony Blengino">Tony Blengino</a><div class="contrib-label-container"><span class="contrib-byline-type">Contributor</span><span class="disclaimer"><svg class="fs-icon fs-icon--info" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 60 60"><path fill="#010101" d="M28.3 38.4h3.3v-10h-3.3v10zM30 13.3c-9.2 0-16.7 7.5-16.7 16.7S20.8 46.7 30 46.7 46.7 39.2 46.7 30 39.2 13.3 30 13.3zm0 30.1c-7.4 0-13.4-6-13.4-13.4s6-13.4 13.4-13.4 13.4 6 13.4 13.4-6 13.4-13.4 13.4zM28.3 25h3.3v-3.3h-3.3V25z"/></svg><div class="ftc-disclaimer__tooltip">Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.</div></span></div></span></div><div class="short-bio"><span>Tony Blengino covers all things baseball, with an analytical bent. </span></div></div><fbs-cordial type="Follow" natural-id="blogAuthorId/blog/author/3339415" author-slug="tonyblengino" page-position="top"><a class="following-label" href="https://account.forbes.com/following" target="blank" title="https://account.forbes.com/following" aria-label="Following"><svg class="fs-icon fs-icon--check-mark" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M10 2.9c-3.9 0-7.1 3.2-7.1 7.1s3.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1-3.2 7.1-7.1-3.2-7.1-7.1-7.1zm-.7 10.3l-3-2.1.7-1 2 1.4 3.4-4.9 1 .7-4.1 5.9z"/></svg><span>Following</span></a></fbs-cordial></div></div><div class="metrics-channel 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onclick="window.open("https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Ftonyblengino%2F2024%2F11%2F26%2Fangels-signing-of-yusei-kikuchi-brings-both-upside-and-risk%2F&title=Angels%E2%80%99%20Signing%20Of%20Yusei%20Kikuchi%20Brings%20Both%20Upside%20And%20Risk&summary=Though%20his%20contract%20covers%20his%20age%2034-36%20seasons%20and%20his%20MLB%20track%20record%20is%20only%20ordinary%2C%20Kikuchi%20has%20a%20well%20above%20average%20four-seamer%20and%20dominated%20in%20the%20second%20half.", 'window', 'width=400,height=500')" aria-label="Share Linkedin" role="link" data-ga-track="Linkedin Click"><span class="screen-reader-text">Share to Linkedin</span><svg class="fs-icon fs-icon--linkedin" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M7.6 20H4.4V9.4h3.4V20h-.2zM6 8c-1 0-2-.8-2-2s.8-2 2-2c1 0 2 .8 2 2S7 8 6 8zm14 12h-3.2v-5.6c0-1.6-.602-2.4-1.801-2.4-1.4 0-2 .8-2 2.4V20h-3.2V9.4h3.2v1.4s1-1.8 3.2-1.8 3.8 1.4 3.8 4.2V20z"/></svg></a></li></ul></div><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-0" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:66.67%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/67452d4b89248d9961f65c26/YUSEI-KIKUCHI/960x0.jpg?fit=scale" alt="YUSEI KIKUCHI" data-height="2386" data-width="3579"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion class="expandable" current="-1"><p class="color-body light-text">ARCHIVO - El abridor de los Astros de Houston Yusei Kikuchi lanza ante los Marineros de Seattle, el <span class="plus" data-ga-track="caption expand">... [+]</span><span class="expanded-caption"> miércoles 25 de septiembre de 2024, en Houston. (AP Foto/Michael Wyke)</span></p></fbs-accordion><small>Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.</small></figcaption></figure> <p>This year’s baseball hot stove season has been slow to percolate, unless of you’re a fan of the Los Angeles Angels. While the rest of baseball has been making lists and checking them twice, the Angels have been in action, trading for DH Jorge Soler and signing free agents Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks and most significantly, Yusei Kikuchi.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_1"></div> <div class="article_paragraph_2"></div> <p>While the other moves were mostly around the roster margins, the club signed Kikuchi to a <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/28282/yusei-kikuchi" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/28282/yusei-kikuchi" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/28282/yusei-kikuchi" aria-label="three-year, $63 million">three-year, $63 million</a> deal with the expectation that he will front their rotation in the intermediate term.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_2"></div> <p>The Japanese lefty has been a hot-and-cold performer throughout his MLB career, posting a 41-47, 4.57, overall record with a mediocre 110 ERA-. That, coupled with the fact that his contract will over his age 34-36 seasons, might lead one to believe that the Angels have overpaid for his services.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_3"></div> <div class="vestpocket" vest-pocket=""></div> <p>Peel a couple layers back from his body of work, however, and there is significant upside here that makes this contract understandable at the very least and perhaps quite attractive.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_4"></div> <p>First off, Kikuchi misses bats, He has 837 strikeouts in 809 2/3 career innings, whiffing at least a batter per inning in all but his rookie season. Now you might say that everyone strikes out a batter per inning these days, and you’re not totally wrong. But this is a lefthander who has averaged 95.0 mph or higher with his fastball in all but that 2019 rookie season - this kind of arm doesn’t grow on trees.</p><fbs-ad position="inread" progressive="" ad-id="article-0-inread" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"></fbs-ad> <p>And secondly, there is a track record of growth in place. Historically, Kikuchi has been a poor contact manager, with a fastball that was very hittable early in his career and a changeup that was barely passable when he first arrived in the states. Before 2024, the lefty had never really been able to showcase more than one above average pitch at a time.</p> <div class="recirc-module shopping" data-type="standard"><div class="recirc-module-body recirc-module-body--vetted" id="recirc-unit"><div class="recirc-module-title">MORE FROM<a class="forbes-shop-link" href="https://www.forbes.com/vetted/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.com/vetted/" aria-label="FORBES VETTED" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|none|none"><span class="forbes-shop" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|none|none">FORBES VETTED</span></a></div><div class="recirc-articles"><div class="recirc-block-padding"><div class="recirc-content"><a class="recirc-link" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/29/quince-black-friday-deals/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/29/quince-black-friday-deals/" aria-label="Refresh Your Wardrobe And Home With Quince’s Black Friday Deals" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|6749e6b24999204c66552850|1"><h3 class="recirc-headline-no-margin" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|6749e6b24999204c66552850|1">Refresh Your Wardrobe And Home With Quince’s Black Friday Deals</h3></a><a class="recirc-author" href="https://www.forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/people/claire-epting/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/people/claire-epting/" aria-label="By Claire Epting Forbes Staff">By<div class="recirc-author-name">Claire Epting</div><div class="recirc-author-type">Forbes Staff</div></a></div><a class="recirc-img" style="background-image:url(https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/6749f9574653c804e2fe8f93/0x0.jpg?width=960);" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/29/quince-black-friday-deals/" aria-label="Graphic Refresh Your Wardrobe And Home With Quince’s Black Friday Deals" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|6749e6b24999204c66552850|1"></a></div><div class="recirc-block-padding"><div class="recirc-content"><a class="recirc-link" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/29/black-friday-tv-deals/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/29/black-friday-tv-deals/" aria-label="The Best Black Friday Deals On TVs, According To Our Tech Editor" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|5f995ac5d7108f0006b60e66|2"><h3 class="recirc-headline-no-margin" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|5f995ac5d7108f0006b60e66|2">The Best Black Friday Deals On TVs, According To Our Tech Editor</h3></a><a class="recirc-author" href="https://www.forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/people/rebecca-isaacs/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/people/rebecca-isaacs/" aria-label="By Rebecca Isaacs Forbes Staff">By<div class="recirc-author-name">Rebecca Isaacs</div><div class="recirc-author-type">Forbes Staff</div></a></div><a class="recirc-img" style="background-image:url(https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/67476640b31926c5f76193b5/0x0.jpg?width=960);" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/29/black-friday-tv-deals/" aria-label="Graphic The Best Black Friday Deals On TVs, According To Our Tech Editor" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|5f995ac5d7108f0006b60e66|2"></a></div></div></div></div> <p>Each year, I grade out the pitching repertoires of all MLB starters who throw 135 or more innings based on their bat-missing and contact management performance relative to the league. In 2021, Kikuchi featured an excellent changeup (”A+” grade), in a relatively small sample size. His other qualifying pitches graded out below average.</p> <div class="article_paragraph_7"></div> <p>In 2023, his next qualifying season, his four-seamer took center stage, earning an “A” grade. Unfortunately, his other three qualifying pitches all earned subpar “C+” grades. He just couldn’t put it all together at the same time.</p> <script> function loadConnatixScript(document) { if (!window.cnxel) { window.cnxel = {}; window.cnxel.cmd = []; var iframe = document.createElement('iframe'); iframe.style.display = 'none'; iframe.onload = function() { var iframeDoc = iframe.contentWindow.document; var script = iframeDoc.createElement('script'); script.src = '//cd.elements.video/player.js' + '?cid=' + '62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a'; script.setAttribute('defer', '1'); script.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); iframeDoc.body.appendChild(script); }; document.head.appendChild(iframe); const preloadResourcesEndpoint = 'https://cds.elements.video/a/preload-resources-ovp.json'; fetch(preloadResourcesEndpoint, { priority: 'low' }) .then(response => { if (!response.ok) { throw new Error('Network response was not ok', preloadResourcesEndpoint); } return response.json(); }) .then(data => { const cssUrl = data.css; const cssUrlLink = document.createElement('link'); cssUrlLink.rel = 'stylesheet'; cssUrlLink.href = cssUrl; cssUrlLink.as = 'style'; cssUrlLink.media = 'print'; cssUrlLink.onload = function() { this.media = 'all'; }; document.head.appendChild(cssUrlLink); const hls = data.hls; const hlsScript = document.createElement('script'); hlsScript.src = hls; hlsScript.setAttribute('defer', '1'); hlsScript.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); document.head.appendChild(hlsScript); }).catch(error => { console.error('There was a problem with the fetch operation:', error); }); } } loadConnatixScript(document); </script> <script class="fbs-cnx"> (function() { function createUniqueId() { return 'xxxxxxxx-xxxx-4xxx-yxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx'.replace(/[xy]/g, function(c) { var r = Math.random() * 16 | 0, v = c == 'x' ? r : (r & 0x3 | 0x8); return v.toString(16); }); } const randId = createUniqueId(); document.getElementsByClassName('fbs-cnx')[0].setAttribute('id', randId); document.getElementById(randId).removeAttribute('class'); (new Image()).src = 'https://capi.elements.video/tr/si?token=' + '44f947fb-a5ce-41f1-a4fc-78dcf31c262a' + '&cid=' + '62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a'; cnxel.cmd.push(function () { cnxel({ playerId: '44f947fb-a5ce-41f1-a4fc-78dcf31c262a', playlistId: '4ed6c4ff-975c-4cd3-bd91-c35d2ff54d17', }).render(randId); }); })(); </script> <p>Still, 2023 was a huge breakthrough. Pitchers with “A” or better fastballs tend to have staying power. If he could keep that pitch at or near the elite level and fine-tune one or more of his offspeed pitches, he could finally reach his potential. Plus, he throws that fastball so often (47.0% of the time in 2024) that it offers a very sturdy foundation for his overall arsenal.</p> <p>For the first time in 2024, Kikuchi featured more than one average or better pitch - and he had three. Both his fastball and changeup earned “B+” grades, while his slider got a “B” and his curve got a “C+”. Overall, he’s still a below average contact manager (106 Adjusted Contact Score, improved from 109 in 2023 and 122 in 2021), but he’s making significant strides.</p> <p>Now, for the elephant in the room. Kikuchi didn’t take off in 2024 until he was dealt by the Blue Jays to the Astros near the trading deadline. The Astros have a track record (see Cole, Gerrit) of bringing out the best in starting pitchers who had previously shown more stuff than results. How much of this was Astro fairy dust and how much of it will truly have legs moving forward?</p> <p>The Angels do not have a very strong record of developing and maintaining pitching excellence at the major league level. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels haven’t employed a consistently above average MLB starter in recent years. While Kikuchi isn’t Ohtani, the talent - and finally the track record, albeit brief - is there for him to break that trend. For the Angels to have a chance to be relevant in the near term, it’s imperative that they keep the lefthander on track.</p> <div class="newsletter_signup_article"></div></div><div class="sigfile article-body fs-responsive-text"><span>Follow me on </span><a href="https://www.twitter.com/tonyblengino" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. </div><div class="bottom-contrib-block"><div class="fs-author-group-wrapper"><div class="contrib-byline"><a class="fs-author-avatar" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/" title="Photo of Tony Blengino"><img class="fs-author-image" src="https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/a37e45afbf98a49729c6a81384b5eccc?s=400&d=mm&r=g" alt="Tony Blengino"></a><div class="contrib-info"><div class="author-wrapper"><a class="author-name contrib-byline-author speakable-author" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/" aria-label="Tony Blengino" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Tony Blengino</a></div></div></div><fbs-cordial type="Follow" natural-id="blogAuthorId/blog/author/3339415" author-slug="tonyblengino" page-position="bottom"><a class="following-label" href="https://account.forbes.com/following" target="blank" title="https://account.forbes.com/following" aria-label="Following"><svg class="fs-icon fs-icon--check-mark" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M10 2.9c-3.9 0-7.1 3.2-7.1 7.1s3.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1-3.2 7.1-7.1-3.2-7.1-7.1-7.1zm-.7 10.3l-3-2.1.7-1 2 1.4 3.4-4.9 1 .7-4.1 5.9z"/></svg><span>Following</span></a></fbs-cordial></div><p class="contrib-bio" data-author-html-description="<p>Tony Blengino has been writing for Forbes since 2018, covering major league baseball. He previously worked for the Milwaukee Brewers (as an Area Scout and Assistant Scouting Director) and the Seattle Mariners (as Special Assistant to the General Manager). Before then, he wrote "Future Stars" one of the first minor league prospect evaluation books to be published, and was a contributor to Fangraphs and ESPN Insider for several years. He combines traditional scouting with cutting-edge analytics to offer a unique perspective on major/minor league and amateur baseball talent evaluation. 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