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href="//assets-cdn.abcnews.com/abcnews/611515b4c308-release-02-04-2025.10/client/abcnews/prism-story-8cc002fd.js" as="script" /> <title data-react-helmet="true">Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world - ABC News</title> <meta data-react-helmet="true" name="description" content="Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="keywords" content="Article, 115972068"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="theme-color" content="#fff"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="copyright" content="2025 ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="author" content="ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="robots" content="index, follow"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:admins" content="704409894"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:app_id" content="4942312939"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="fb_title" content="Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:site_name" content="ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:url" content="https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-incumbent-parties-lost-elections-world/story?id=115972068"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:title" content="Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:description" content="Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:image" content="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="lastPublishedDate" content="2025-01-17T21:43:24Z"/><meta 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data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:site" content="@ABC"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:creator" content="ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:title" content="Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:description" content="Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024 elections."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:url" content="https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-incumbent-parties-lost-elections-world/story?id=115972068"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:image" content="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:image:alt" content=""/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:image:width" content="640"/><meta 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data-testid="prism-GridContainer"><div class="Kiog kNVGM nvpSA qwdi bmjsw " data-testid="prism-GridRow"><div class="theme-e FITT_Article_main__body oBTii mrzah " data-testid="prism-GridColumn" style="--grid-column-span-xxs:var(--grid-columns);--grid-column-span-xs:var(--grid-columns);--grid-column-span-sm:var(--grid-columns);--grid-column-span-md:20;--grid-column-span-lg:14;--grid-column-span-xl:14;--grid-column-span-xxl:14;--grid-column-start-xxs:auto;--grid-column-start-xs:auto;--grid-column-start-sm:auto;--grid-column-start-md:3;--grid-column-start-lg:0;--grid-column-start-xl:0;--grid-column-start-xxl:2"><div style="--spacing-top:40px;--spacing-bottom:32px;--spacing-child-top:initial;--spacing-child-bottom:24px;--spacing-firstChild-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-lastChild-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-compact-top:24px;--spacing-compact-bottom:32px;--spacing-firstChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-compact-top:initial;--spacing-child-compact-bottom:24px;--spacing-lastChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-compact-bottom:initial" class="dHdHP jLREf zXXje aGO eCClZ nTLv jLsYA gmuro TOSFd VmeZt sCkVm hkQai wGrlE MUuGM fciaN qQjt DhNVo Tgcqk IGLAf tWjkv "><div class="kCTVx qtHut lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC " data-testid="prism-headline"><h1 class="vMjAx gjbzK tntuS eHrJ mTgUP "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world</span></h1><p class="jxTEW Poyse uieav lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">But their losses were smaller than those in many other democracies.</span></p></div><div class="QHblV nkdHX mHUQ kvZxL hTosT whbOj " data-testid="prism-byline"><div class="VZTD mLASH BQWr OcxMG oJce "><div class="kKfXc ubAkB VZTD rEPuv "><div class="TQPvQ fVlAg HUcap kxY REjk UamUc WxHIR HhZOB yaUf VOJBn KMpjV XSbaH Umfib ukdDD "><span class="tChGB zbFav ">By</span><span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/author/cooper_burton" target="_blank">Cooper Burton</a></span><span><span class="EpNlu "> </span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.com/538" 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many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024." class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR zFTjo hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" fetchpriority="high" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600"/></picture><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024.</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh ">ABC News Photo Illustration, Andrew Harnik, Anna Moneymaker, Getty Images, Adobe stock</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div><div class="XQpSH " data-testid="prism-divider"></div><div class="xvlfx ZRifP TKoO eaKKC EcdEg bOdfO qXhdi NFNeu UyHES " data-testid="prism-article-body"><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao MvWXB TjIXL aGjvy ebVHC ">As the dust settles from Election Day, many have begun their autopsies on Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign, trying to parse out what <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-chose-trump/story?id=115827243" target="_blank">talking points or issues</a> ultimately led to her defeat. Domestic issues and the minutiae of campaigning certainly play a big role in any campaign. But a broader analysis of global trends shows that Harris was fighting against some pretty strong headwinds and that any Democratic victory or overperformance would have turned out to be quite the global anomaly.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">By the time 2024 is done, more voters will have gone to the polls than in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://time.com/6550920/world-elections-2024/" target="_blank">any other year in history</a>. And among the half of the world's population living in a country with a national election this year, a clear and consistent picture has emerged: Voters are extremely upset with their governments.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Among democracies* that held elections this year, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose seats or vote share from the last election. That includes democracies of all kinds and in all corners of the globe.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Many of these losses have been historic: In countries like Japan, Botswana and South Africa, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/06/01/nx-s1-4987616/south-africa-election-results" target="_blank">incumbent parties</a> that had <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c238n5zr51yo" target="_blank">dominated domestic politics</a> for decades <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/27/japan-election-results-2024-ldp/" target="_blank">lost their majorities</a> and have either relinquished power or are holding on through cobbled-together coalitions with minor parties. In Senegal, now-President Bassirou Diomaye Faye became the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240329-%F0%9F%94%B4-senegal-top-court-confirms-bassirou-diomaye-faye-s-election-victory" target="_blank">first opposition candidate</a> to win a presidential election in the first round since the country became independent in 1960. Sri Lankan voters delivered <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr9n2w0lyzo" target="_blank">a landslide win</a> to the opposition two years after <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/13/1111087981/sri-lankan-protesters-partied-in-the-presidents-mansion-what-comes-next-is-uncle" target="_blank">storming the presidential mansion</a>, forcing the incumbent to flee the country. And <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-mad-hell-uk-france/story?id=111593901" target="_blank">in Europe</a>, voters across 14 countries delivered sharp rebukes to almost every incumbent government up for reelection. When taken together, these defeats are especially striking considering the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/incumbents-have-upper-hand-elections-coordination-failures-give-them-further" target="_blank">well-documented advantage</a> that incumbent governments have historically had in elections.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">While the U.S. ultimately proved to be no exception to this trend, Democrats actually performed fairly well when compared to some of the losses seen in other countries. As the Financial Times noted, Democrats <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1854485866548195735" target="_blank">endured one of the smallest losses in vote share</a> of all incumbent parties in <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.oecd.org/en.html" target="_blank">higher-income countries</a> that were on the ballot this year. Harris <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kamala-harris-votes-trump-election-swing-states-b2645211.html" target="_blank">came quite close</a> to winning several swing states, and Democrats look likely to avoid losing much, if any, ground in the House of Representatives — <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/election-2024-undecided-races/?id=115565805" target="_blank">and they could even gain a seat</a>.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"></div></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">One potential explanation for Democrats' milder defeat is the relative strength of the U.S. economy compared to those around the world. Most countries have seen soaring inflation and stagnant or painfully slow economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. By many measures, the U.S. is <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-us-recovery-from-covid-19-in-international-comparison/" target="_blank">a striking exception</a> to that global trend, with strong growth in GDP and real wages. Some economic metrics are outpacing even pre-pandemic trends.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">But just because the U.S.'s economy is performing <em class=" ">better</em> than that of many other countries doesn't mean it's in perfect shape or that voters aren't still unhappy with it. <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/vibes-americans-perception-economy-completely-changed/story?id=111211869" target="_blank">As 538 explored earlier this summer</a>, the economic metrics that Americans care about have shifted in dramatic ways since the pandemic. Issues like inflation and the high cost of housing remained at the forefront of the campaign, drowning out Democrats' attempts to highlight other strong economic indicators like increased wage growth and low unemployment.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The few incumbent governments that did manage to hang on this year did so not on the backs of stellar economic performances, but rather through campaigns that focused heavily on security issues. Mexico, Finland, Moldova and the Dominican Republic all saw incumbent parties gain seats or vote share compared to the last election on the backs of concerns over issues like gang violence and Russian encroachment. National security issues simply didn't dominate the U.S. campaign in the same way (though immigration, which often gets lumped in with national security, was <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-chose-trump/story?id=115827243" target="_blank">a top concern for voters</a>).</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Ultimately, the U.S. proved no outlier in the wave of malaise and anger that has toppled incumbents across the globe since the pandemic. Economic anxiety and deep discontent with the direction of the country proved fatal for Democrats, but if trends from this year continue, they have one bright spot on the horizon: Next time, they won't be the incumbents.</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq ">Footnotes</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">*In this analysis, we consider a country to be a democracy if its <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/Democracy-Index-2023-Final-report.pdf" target="_blank">2023 Democracy Index score</a> is at least 5.00. We excluded countries that did not have a 2023 Democracy Index score, as well as countries where the opposition boycotted the election.</p><div class="eTIW QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX sUzSN "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="min-height:250px;transition:min-height 0.3s linear 0s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-box" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-box ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-box" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-box"></div></div></div></div></div><div><div data-testid="prism-tags"><h2 class="QOIir HJolv pZjYK JKlkC RZhHM ">Related Topics</h2><ul class="VZTD UeCOM dAmzA ltDkr qBPOY uoPjL "><li class=" "><a class="theme-iPcRv theme-HReFq mLASH egFzk qXWHA 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Domestic issues and the minutiae of campaigning certainly play a big role in any campaign. But a broader analysis of global trends shows that Harris was fighting against some pretty strong headwinds and that any Democratic victory or overperformance would have turned out to be quite the global anomaly."]},{"type":"p","content":["By the time 2024 is done, more voters will have gone to the polls than in ",{"type":"a","content":["any other year in history"],"attrs":{"href":"https://time.com/6550920/world-elections-2024/","target":"_blank"}},". And among the half of the world's population living in a country with a national election this year, a clear and consistent picture has emerged: Voters are extremely upset with their governments."]},{"type":"p","content":["Among democracies* that held elections this year, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose seats or vote share from the last election. That includes democracies of all kinds and in all corners of the globe."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22Incumbent%20governments%20worldwide%20have%20suffered%20losses%22%20aria-label%3D%22Map%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-gmEnM%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gmEnM/4/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22496%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["Many of these losses have been historic: In countries like Japan, Botswana and South Africa, ",{"type":"a","content":["incumbent parties"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.npr.org/2024/06/01/nx-s1-4987616/south-africa-election-results","target":"_blank"}}," that had ",{"type":"a","content":["dominated domestic politics"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c238n5zr51yo","target":"_blank"}}," for decades ",{"type":"a","content":["lost their majorities"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/27/japan-election-results-2024-ldp/","target":"_blank"}}," and have either relinquished power or are holding on through cobbled-together coalitions with minor parties. In Senegal, now-President Bassirou Diomaye Faye became the ",{"type":"a","content":["first opposition candidate"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240329-%F0%9F%94%B4-senegal-top-court-confirms-bassirou-diomaye-faye-s-election-victory","target":"_blank"}}," to win a presidential election in the first round since the country became independent in 1960. Sri Lankan voters delivered ",{"type":"a","content":["a landslide win"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr9n2w0lyzo","target":"_blank"}}," to the opposition two years after ",{"type":"a","content":["storming the presidential mansion"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.npr.org/2022/07/13/1111087981/sri-lankan-protesters-partied-in-the-presidents-mansion-what-comes-next-is-uncle","target":"_blank"}},", forcing the incumbent to flee the country. And ",{"type":"a","content":["in Europe"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-mad-hell-uk-france/story?id=111593901","target":"_blank"}},", voters across 14 countries delivered sharp rebukes to almost every incumbent government up for reelection. When taken together, these defeats are especially striking considering the ",{"type":"a","content":["well-documented advantage"],"attrs":{"href":"https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/incumbents-have-upper-hand-elections-coordination-failures-give-them-further","target":"_blank"}}," that incumbent governments have historically had in elections."]},{"type":"p","content":["While the U.S. ultimately proved to be no exception to this trend, Democrats actually performed fairly well when compared to some of the losses seen in other countries. As the Financial Times noted, Democrats ",{"type":"a","content":["endured one of the smallest losses in vote share"],"attrs":{"href":"https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1854485866548195735","target":"_blank"}}," of all incumbent parties in ",{"type":"a","content":["higher-income countries"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.oecd.org/en.html","target":"_blank"}}," that were on the ballot this year. Harris ",{"type":"a","content":["came quite close"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kamala-harris-votes-trump-election-swing-states-b2645211.html","target":"_blank"}}," to winning several swing states, and Democrats look likely to avoid losing much, if any, ground in the House of Representatives — ",{"type":"a","content":["and they could even gain a seat"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/election-2024-undecided-races/?id=115565805","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"p","content":["One potential explanation for Democrats' milder defeat is the relative strength of the U.S. economy compared to those around the world. Most countries have seen soaring inflation and stagnant or painfully slow economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. By many measures, the U.S. is ",{"type":"a","content":["a striking exception"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-us-recovery-from-covid-19-in-international-comparison/","target":"_blank"}}," to that global trend, with strong growth in GDP and real wages. Some economic metrics are outpacing even pre-pandemic trends."]},{"type":"p","content":["But just because the U.S.'s economy is performing ",{"type":"em","content":["better"]}," than that of many other countries doesn't mean it's in perfect shape or that voters aren't still unhappy with it. ",{"type":"a","content":["As 538 explored earlier this summer"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/vibes-americans-perception-economy-completely-changed/story?id=111211869","target":"_blank"}},", the economic metrics that Americans care about have shifted in dramatic ways since the pandemic. Issues like inflation and the high cost of housing remained at the forefront of the campaign, drowning out Democrats' attempts to highlight other strong economic indicators like increased wage growth and low unemployment."]},{"type":"p","content":["The few incumbent governments that did manage to hang on this year did so not on the backs of stellar economic performances, but rather through campaigns that focused heavily on security issues. Mexico, Finland, Moldova and the Dominican Republic all saw incumbent parties gain seats or vote share compared to the last election on the backs of concerns over issues like gang violence and Russian encroachment. National security issues simply didn't dominate the U.S. campaign in the same way (though immigration, which often gets lumped in with national security, was ",{"type":"a","content":["a top concern for voters"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-chose-trump/story?id=115827243","target":"_blank"}},")."]},{"type":"p","content":["Ultimately, the U.S. proved no outlier in the wave of malaise and anger that has toppled incumbents across the globe since the pandemic. Economic anxiety and deep discontent with the direction of the country proved fatal for Democrats, but if trends from this year continue, they have one bright spot on the horizon: Next time, they won't be the incumbents."]},{"type":"h2","content":["Footnotes"]},{"type":"p","content":["*In this analysis, we consider a country to be a democracy if its ",{"type":"a","content":["2023 Democracy Index score"],"attrs":{"href":"https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/Democracy-Index-2023-Final-report.pdf","target":"_blank"}}," is at least 5.00. We excluded countries that did not have a 2023 Democracy Index score, as well as countries where the opposition boycotted the election."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"type":"fitt-article-inline-box","className":"fitt-article-inline-box"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"size":[0,250]},"regular":{"size":[0,250]}}},"context":{},"config":{}}}]],"blockquote":{"simple":true,"disableQuotationMark":true},"dateline":"","wordCount":746},"config":{"gridDisplayMode":"none"},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"RelatedTags","props":{"heading":"Related Topics","tags":[{"label":"538","href":"/alerts/538"},{"label":"Democratic Party","href":"/alerts/DemocraticParty"},{"label":"2024 Elections","href":"/alerts/Elections"}]},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"ArticleFooter","props":{"key":"footer-undefined","shareURLs":{},"title":"","dividerData":{"logoAlt":"ABC News","logoSrc":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoSize":"xxxl","logoDefaultImg":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoHeight":56,"logoWidth":112,"className":"StoryDivider--logo"},"socialShareSize":16,"showComments":true},"config":{}},{"name":"Taboola","props":{"data":{"network":"abcnews-abcnews","mode":"thumbnails-a","container":"taboola-below-article-thumbnails","type":"article","targetType":"mix","placement":"Below Article Thumbnails"},"src":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-incumbent-parties-lost-elections-world/story?id=115972068","position":"bottom","pageType":"article"},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true}],"topComponents":[],"endComponents":[{"name":"NewsletterForm","props":{"articleConfig":{"align":"full"},"placement":"sidebar","isCloseable":false,"heading":"Want the latest politics news? 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Caption"},"image":{"alt":"Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024.","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600","sources":[{"min":0,"max":374,"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=384"}},{"min":375,"max":693,"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=608"}},{"min":694,"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600"}}],"fetchPriority":"high"}},"body":"<p>As the dust settles from Election Day, many have begun their autopsies on Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign, trying to parse out what <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-chose-trump/story?id=115827243\" target=\"_blank\">talking points or issues</a> ultimately led to her defeat. Domestic issues and the minutiae of campaigning certainly play a big role in any campaign. But a broader analysis of global trends shows that Harris was fighting against some pretty strong headwinds and that any Democratic victory or overperformance would have turned out to be quite the global anomaly.</p><p>By the time 2024 is done, more voters will have gone to the polls than in <a href=\"https://time.com/6550920/world-elections-2024/\" target=\"_blank\">any other year in history</a>. And among the half of the world's population living in a country with a national election this year, a clear and consistent picture has emerged: Voters are extremely upset with their governments.</p><p>Among democracies* that held elections this year, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose seats or vote share from the last election. That includes democracies of all kinds and in all corners of the globe.</p><p><inline1></p><p>Many of these losses have been historic: In countries like Japan, Botswana and South Africa, <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2024/06/01/nx-s1-4987616/south-africa-election-results\" target=\"_blank\">incumbent parties</a> that had <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c238n5zr51yo\" target=\"_blank\">dominated domestic politics</a> for decades <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/27/japan-election-results-2024-ldp/\" target=\"_blank\">lost their majorities</a> and have either relinquished power or are holding on through cobbled-together coalitions with minor parties. In Senegal, now-President Bassirou Diomaye Faye became the <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240329-%F0%9F%94%B4-senegal-top-court-confirms-bassirou-diomaye-faye-s-election-victory\" target=\"_blank\">first opposition candidate</a> to win a presidential election in the first round since the country became independent in 1960. Sri Lankan voters delivered <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr9n2w0lyzo\" target=\"_blank\">a landslide win</a> to the opposition two years after <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/07/13/1111087981/sri-lankan-protesters-partied-in-the-presidents-mansion-what-comes-next-is-uncle\" target=\"_blank\">storming the presidential mansion</a>, forcing the incumbent to flee the country. And <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-mad-hell-uk-france/story?id=111593901\" target=\"_blank\">in Europe</a>, voters across 14 countries delivered sharp rebukes to almost every incumbent government up for reelection. When taken together, these defeats are especially striking considering the <a href=\"https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/incumbents-have-upper-hand-elections-coordination-failures-give-them-further\" target=\"_blank\">well-documented advantage</a> that incumbent governments have historically had in elections.</p><p>While the U.S. ultimately proved to be no exception to this trend, Democrats actually performed fairly well when compared to some of the losses seen in other countries. As the Financial Times noted, Democrats <a href=\"https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1854485866548195735\" target=\"_blank\">endured one of the smallest losses in vote share</a> of all incumbent parties in <a href=\"https://www.oecd.org/en.html\" target=\"_blank\">higher-income countries</a> that were on the ballot this year. Harris <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kamala-harris-votes-trump-election-swing-states-b2645211.html\" target=\"_blank\">came quite close</a> to winning several swing states, and Democrats look likely to avoid losing much, if any, ground in the House of Representatives — <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/election-2024-undecided-races/?id=115565805\" target=\"_blank\">and they could even gain a seat</a>.</p><p>One potential explanation for Democrats' milder defeat is the relative strength of the U.S. economy compared to those around the world. Most countries have seen soaring inflation and stagnant or painfully slow economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. By many measures, the U.S. is <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-us-recovery-from-covid-19-in-international-comparison/\" target=\"_blank\">a striking exception</a> to that global trend, with strong growth in GDP and real wages. Some economic metrics are outpacing even pre-pandemic trends.</p><p>But just because the U.S.'s economy is performing <em>better</em> than that of many other countries doesn't mean it's in perfect shape or that voters aren't still unhappy with it. <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/vibes-americans-perception-economy-completely-changed/story?id=111211869\" target=\"_blank\">As 538 explored earlier this summer</a>, the economic metrics that Americans care about have shifted in dramatic ways since the pandemic. Issues like inflation and the high cost of housing remained at the forefront of the campaign, drowning out Democrats' attempts to highlight other strong economic indicators like increased wage growth and low unemployment.</p><p>The few incumbent governments that did manage to hang on this year did so not on the backs of stellar economic performances, but rather through campaigns that focused heavily on security issues. Mexico, Finland, Moldova and the Dominican Republic all saw incumbent parties gain seats or vote share compared to the last election on the backs of concerns over issues like gang violence and Russian encroachment. National security issues simply didn't dominate the U.S. campaign in the same way (though immigration, which often gets lumped in with national security, was <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-chose-trump/story?id=115827243\" target=\"_blank\">a top concern for voters</a>).</p><p>Ultimately, the U.S. proved no outlier in the wave of malaise and anger that has toppled incumbents across the globe since the pandemic. Economic anxiety and deep discontent with the direction of the country proved fatal for Democrats, but if trends from this year continue, they have one bright spot on the horizon: Next time, they won't be the incumbents.</p><h2>Footnotes</h2><p>*In this analysis, we consider a country to be a democracy if its <a href=\"https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/Democracy-Index-2023-Final-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">2023 Democracy Index score</a> is at least 5.00. We excluded countries that did not have a 2023 Democracy Index score, as well as countries where the opposition boycotted the election.</p>","publishedDate":"2024-11-18T20:29:00Z","contributors":[{"name":"Cooper Burton","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/author/cooper_burton","role":"","logo":"","logoAlt":"","units":[{}],"bureaus":[{}],"affiliateLogo":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg","affiliateUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538","affiliate":"via five thirty eight"}],"authorsStr":"Cooper Burton","modifiedDate":"2025-01-17T21:43:24Z","section":"538","wordCount":766,"relatedTags":{"heading":"Related Topics","tags":[{"label":"538","href":"/alerts/538"},{"label":"Democratic Party","href":"/alerts/DemocraticParty"},{"label":"2024 Elections","href":"/alerts/Elections"}]},"lead":{"ratio":"16x9","disableForMobile":false,"type":"xl","mediaType":"image","alignCaptionToBody":true},"ads":{"Sticky":{"kvps":{"test":true}},"RightRail":{"kvps":{"test":true}},"InlineBox":{},"InlineOutstream":{"disabled":false},"Taboola":{"position":"bottom","pageType":"article","config":{"network":"abcnews-abcnews","mode":"thumbnails-a","container":"taboola-below-article-thumbnails","type":"article","targetType":"mix","placement":"Below Article Thumbnails"}}},"featuredVideo":null,"featuredImage":{"caption":{"credit":"ABC News Photo Illustration, Andrew Harnik, Anna Moneymaker, Getty Images, Adobe stock","text":"Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024.","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024.","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600","sources":[{"min":0,"max":374,"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=384"}},{"min":375,"max":693,"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=608"}},{"min":694,"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/954df483-9399-4eff-848a-77d39031854b/538_IncumbentParty_v01_DP_1731952190318_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600"}}],"fetchPriority":"high"}},"dateline":"","seo":{},"LivePromotion":{},"PersonalizedRecommend":{},"isShared":false},"autoUpdate":{"enabled":true,"topics":["general-elections-2024-balance-of-power","general-elections-2024-national-map-electoral","general-elections-2024-race-feed-all","abcn-web-prod-site-115565805"]}},"upw":{"configuration":{"balanceOfPower":{"electoral":"Projection: Trump is President-elect","governor":"","house":"Projection: Reps retain control","senate":"Projection: Reps gain control"},"bopCustomValues":{"governor":{"democrats":0,"other":0,"republicans":0},"house":{"democrats":0,"other":0,"republicans":0},"senate":{"democrats":0,"other":0,"republicans":0},"useOverride":false},"bopHideSeatsAvailable":{"governor":true,"house":false,"senate":false},"bopHideSeatsGainLoss":{"house":false,"senate":false},"bopLinks":{"electoral":"https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-presidential-election-results-live-map","governor":"https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-governor-election-results-live-map","house":"https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-house-election-results-live-map","senate":"https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-senate-election-results-live-map"},"bopWidgetLink":"https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-presidential-election-results-live-map","candidates":{"democrats":[{"bio":"https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Family/kamala-harris-family/story?id=112162837","blurb":"Kamala Harris was born in Oakland, California, to a Jamaican father and Indian mother. 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