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Not a Chance</h1> <div class="wp-socializer-buttons clearfix"> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <div class="fb-like" data-href="http://www.arescotx.com/will-opec-fueled-price-crater-spell-permian-extinction-not-a-chance/" data-share="false" data-layout="button_count" data-show-faces="0" data-action="like" data-colorscheme="light"></div>  </span> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="horizontal" data-via="ArescoLP" data-lang="en" data-url="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/will-opec-fueled-price-crater-spell-permian-extinction-not-a-chance/" data-text="Will OPEC-Fueled Price Crater Spell Permian Extinction? Not a Chance - "></a>  </span> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <div class="g-plusone" data-size="medium" data-href="http://www.arescotx.com/will-opec-fueled-price-crater-spell-permian-extinction-not-a-chance/"></div>  </span> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <script type="IN/Share" data-url="http://www.arescotx.com/will-opec-fueled-price-crater-spell-permian-extinction-not-a-chance/" data-counter="right"></script>  </span> <span class="wpsr-btn">  <div style="padding-right:50px"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://pinterest.com/pin/create/button/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.arescotx.com%2Fwill-opec-fueled-price-crater-spell-permian-extinction-not-a-chance%2F&media=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.arescotx.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fpermian-oil-field-roughnecks.jpg" data-pin-do="buttonPin" data-pin-config="beside"><img border="0" src="//web.archive.org/web/20150130131600im_/http://assets.pinterest.com/images/pidgets/pinit_fg_en_rect_gray_20.png" alt="Pinterest" title="Pin It"/></a></div>  </span> </div><p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/wp-content/uploads/permian-oil-field-roughnecks.jpg" target="_blank" rel="lightbox-0"><img class="alignleft wp-image-5219 size-medium" style="border: 0px none; margin: 5px 10px;" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600im_/http://www.arescotx.com/wp-content/uploads/permian-oil-field-roughnecks-300x242.jpg" alt="Permian Oil Field Roughnecks" width="300" height="242"/></a>Much has been made of the recent per barrel oil price plunge, currently hovering below $70. Some speculate OPEC’s recent decision to keep the crude spigot flowing is the cartel’s play to smother America’s great oil boom. Keeping prices low by steadily flushing the market with crude—the thinking goes—<a title="OPEC won't stop US oil production growth" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.cnbc.com/id/102234051#." target="_blank">makes production via fracking and horizontal drilling less viable</a>, triggering a cascade of capital pullback in the oilfield.</p> <p>Sure, there’s room for worry. Oil prices have plummeted more than 30 percent over the last several months. Add in the conventional wisdom that says “tight” oil production from shale ceases to be economical once the $80 per barrel price floor is breached. Question: How low can prices go before North American unconventional investment is throttled and projects start shutting down? Follow-up: Is the conventional wisdom on price even relevant?<span id="more-5215"></span></p> <p><iframe src="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600if_/http://player.theplatform.com/p/gZWlPC/vcps_inline?byGuid=3000335934&size=530_298" width="530" height="298" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <h2>Birth of a Oil Boom</h2> <p>Back in 2008 the big worry was peak oil and steady declines in global output. Enter the fracking and horizontal drilling boom. Extracting oil deep underground by rupturing and penetrating shale seams propelled U.S. oil production to its highest level in three decades.</p> <p>The impact of the shale breakthrough is breathtaking. U.S. output surged 80 percent to 9 million barrels per day, mostly from plays such as the <a title="Permian Basin Shale Oil" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/permian-basin/" target="_blank">Permian</a>, <a title="Bakken Shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/bakken-shale/" target="_blank">Bakken</a>, and <a title="Eagle Ford Shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/eagle-ford-shale/" target="_blank">Eagle Ford</a>. By itself that production spike <a title="The Global Shakeout From Plunging Oil" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.wsj.com/articles/daniel-yergin-the-global-shakeout-from-plunging-oil-1417386897" target="_blank">trumps the output of every OPEC member nation</a> save for Saudi Arabia. The peak oil myth was put to bed.</p> <p>But what wasn’t factored into conventional wisdom on price is that <a title="rillers Continue To Innovate In Face Of Oil Price Downturn" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Drillers-Continue-To-Innovate-In-Face-Of-Oil-Price-Downturn.html" target="_blank">technological advances</a> have been surging right along with the production boom. In some cases costs have plummeted 50 percent in the last two years alone. They could dip another 15 percent by 2016. Bottom line: <a title="U.S. Shale Oil Output Seen Growing Even as Prices Drop" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-10-14/u-dot-s-dot-shale-oil-output-growing-even-as-prices-drop-eia" target="_blank">Producers are generating more oil per dollar invested</a>, driving down costs by as much as $30 per barrel since 2012.</p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.txoilinvestments.com/" target="_blank"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-4787 size-full" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600im_/http://www.arescotx.com/wp-content/uploads/permian-basin-investing-questions.gif" alt="Permian Basin Oil Investing Questions?" width="600" height="40"/></a></p> <p>According to the Energy Information Administration, each rig in the Permian added a record 176 barrels of new oil per day in November. That’s a 20 percent spike over the previous year. Similar spikes were seen in the Eagle Ford Shale area and across Texas. In fact, technological finesse has progressed to the point where many sections of these unconventional plays might be viable right down to $50 per barrel. No wonder <a title="Iran Wary of Oil ‘Shock Therapy’ as OPEC Vies for Market" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/iran-wary-of-oil-shock-therapy-as-opec-vies-for-market-share.html" target="_blank">OPEC is worried</a>.</p> <h3>Conventional Production Still Vital</h3> <p>But that’s just the beginning of <a title="Permian Region Drilling Productivity Report" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf" target="_blank">Texas oil vitality</a>. Though the fracking boom has transformed the production landscape over the last couple of years, there is still a strong and vital conventional production element in Texas and in other areas throughout the U.S. With costs starting at $2 million and running up to $5 million, higher producing (thus deeper) vertical wells can be much less expensive to drill than many horizontal wells, which may demand investments of between $6 million to $10 million or more in the bigger shale plays.</p> <p>Long a lynch pin in Texas oil production, particularly in the Permian Basin, economical <a title="Vertical Drilling Projects" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/permian-basin-canyon-sandstone-project-begins/" target="_blank">vertical drilling may become even more crucial</a> as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices hover below $70 per barrel. Flexible integrated production strategies that include a good mix of conventional vertical drilling will keep savvy operators thriving and the Permian Basin a vital energy producing powerhouse for decades to come.</p> <hr/> <h3>Investing in Permian Basin Oil</h3> <p><iframe width="500" height="375" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600if_/http://www.youtube.com/embed/P86ItCa_U1s?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p> <p><strong>About Aresco LP</strong><br/> <em>Aresco LP is a privately held Dallas-based exploration and production company actively engaged in developmental drilling, mineral leasing, and production acquisitions in conventional and unconventional oil plays throughout Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. The company specializes in production-driven projects designed to provide income stability and strong growth potential. Aresco’s asset portfolio provides a strong balance of ownership positions in rapidly developing conventional formations and development projects in proven oilfields with decades of active drilling and production. <a title="Texas Permian Basin Oil Investment Opportunities" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.txoilinvestments.com/" target="_blank">Click here</a> to request info on our current investment opportunities.<br/> </em></p> <hr/> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.txoilinvestments.com/" target="_blank"><img class="alignleft wp-image-4720 size-full" style="border: 0px none; margin: 5px 50px;" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600im_/http://www.arescotx.com/wp-content/uploads/investing-in-permian-basin-oil.jpg" alt="investing-in-permian-basin-oil" width="600" height="200"/></a></p> <p> </p> <hr/> <div class="nextpages"></div> <p><b><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/we-have-moved/">previous post: We have moved!</a></b></p> <p><b><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/what-determines-crude-oil-prices/">next post: What determines crude oil prices?</a></b></p> </div> <div id="sidebar"> <div id="flags" class="size"><ul id="sortable" class="ui-sortable" style="float:left"><li id="English"><a title="English" class="notranslate flag en"></a></li></ul></div><div id="google_language_translator"></div> <p class="titles">Recent News</p> <ul> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/crude-oil-price-plunge-ripples-will-be-short-lived/">Crude Oil Price Plunge Ripples Will be Short Lived</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/what-determines-crude-oil-prices/">What determines crude oil prices?</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/will-opec-fueled-price-crater-spell-permian-extinction-not-a-chance/">Will OPEC-Fueled Price Crater Spell Permian Extinction? Not a Chance</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/we-have-moved/">We have moved!</a> </li> <li> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/permian-basin-oil-well-photos/">Permian Basin Oil Well Photos</a> </li> </ul> <style scoped type="text/css">.utcw-b1fq2ep {word-wrap:break-word}.utcw-b1fq2ep span,.utcw-b1fq2ep a{border-width:0px}.utcw-b1fq2ep span:hover,.utcw-b1fq2ep a:hover{border-width:0px}</style><p class="titles">Tag Cloud</p><div class="utcw-b1fq2ep tagcloud"><a class="tag-link-54 utcw-tag utcw-tag-anadarko-basin" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/anadarko-basin/" style="font-size:10.8695652174px" title="2 topics">Anadarko Basin</a> <a class="tag-link-65 utcw-tag utcw-tag-aresco-lp" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/aresco-lp/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Aresco LP</a> <a class="tag-link-43 utcw-tag utcw-tag-bakken-shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/bakken-shale/" style="font-size:12.6086956522px" title="4 topics">Bakken Shale</a> <a class="tag-link-35 utcw-tag utcw-tag-barnett-shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/barnett-shale/" style="font-size:11.7391304348px" title="3 topics">Barnett Shale</a> <a class="tag-link-20 utcw-tag utcw-tag-brandon-laxton" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/brandon-laxton/" style="font-size:10.8695652174px" title="2 topics">Brandon Laxton</a> <a class="tag-link-46 utcw-tag utcw-tag-brazos-basin" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/brazos-basin/" style="font-size:10.8695652174px" title="2 topics">Brazos Basin</a> <a class="tag-link-61 utcw-tag utcw-tag-canyon-sandstone" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/canyon-sandstone/" style="font-size:10.8695652174px" title="2 topics">Canyon Sandstone</a> <a class="tag-link-52 utcw-tag utcw-tag-cline-shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/cline-shale/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Cline Shale</a> <a class="tag-link-7 utcw-tag utcw-tag-crude-oil-prices" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/crude-oil-prices/" style="font-size:12.6086956522px" title="4 topics">Crude Oil Prices</a> <a class="tag-link-39 utcw-tag utcw-tag-domestic-oil-production" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/domestic-oil-production/" style="font-size:12.6086956522px" title="4 topics">Domestic Oil Production</a> <a class="tag-link-5 utcw-tag utcw-tag-drilling-technology" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/drilling-technology/" style="font-size:18.6956521739px" title="11 topics">Drilling Technology</a> <a class="tag-link-10 utcw-tag utcw-tag-eagle-ford-shale" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/eagle-ford-shale/" style="font-size:26.5217391304px" title="20 topics">Eagle Ford Shale</a> <a class="tag-link-33 utcw-tag utcw-tag-eagle-ford-shale-production" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/eagle-ford-shale-production/" style="font-size:12.6086956522px" title="4 topics">Eagle Ford Shale Production</a> <a class="tag-link-16 utcw-tag utcw-tag-energy-information-administration-eia" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/energy-information-administration-eia/" style="font-size:13.4782608696px" title="5 topics">Energy Information Administration (EIA)</a> <a class="tag-link-36 utcw-tag utcw-tag-energy-production" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/energy-production/" style="font-size:10.8695652174px" title="2 topics">Energy Production</a> <a class="tag-link-60 utcw-tag utcw-tag-fischer-tropsch" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/fischer-tropsch/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Fischer-Tropsch</a> <a class="tag-link-42 utcw-tag utcw-tag-fracking" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/fracking/" style="font-size:13.4782608696px" title="5 topics">Fracking</a> <a class="tag-link-30 utcw-tag utcw-tag-gas-prices" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/gas-prices/" style="font-size:10.8695652174px" title="2 topics">Gas Prices</a> <a class="tag-link-58 utcw-tag utcw-tag-gas-to-liquids" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/gas-to-liquids/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Gas to Liquids</a> <a class="tag-link-48 utcw-tag utcw-tag-halcon" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/halcon/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Halcón</a> <a class="tag-link-34 utcw-tag utcw-tag-horizontal-drilling" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/horizontal-drilling/" style="font-size:16.9565217391px" title="9 topics">Horizontal Drilling</a> <a class="tag-link-8 utcw-tag utcw-tag-hydraulic-fracturing" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/hydraulic-fracturing/" style="font-size:23.9130434783px" title="17 topics">Hydraulic Fracturing</a> <a class="tag-link-29 utcw-tag utcw-tag-investing-in-texas-oil" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/investing-in-texas-oil/" style="font-size:12.6086956522px" title="4 topics">Investing in Texas Oil</a> <a class="tag-link-26 utcw-tag utcw-tag-karnes-county-oil" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150130131600/http://www.arescotx.com/tag/karnes-county-oil/" style="font-size:10px" title="1 topic">Karnes County Oil</a> <a class="tag-link-4 utcw-tag 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