Prepare now for the new era of globalization

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data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-be72882dca":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:56:34Z","dc:title":"Supply chain and operations","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/supply-chain"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/supply-chain" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Supply chain and operations</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-aa0c510174":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:56:34Z","dc:title":"Technology leaders’ agenda","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/cio"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/cio" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Technology leaders’ agenda</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-ea72039f1d":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:56:34Z","dc:title":"Transformation EQ","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/consulting/transformation-eq-services-leadership-workforce-consulting"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/consulting/transformation-eq-services-leadership-workforce-consulting" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Transformation EQ</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-197aea7324":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:56:34Z","dc:title":"Transformation Platform","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/consulting/transformation-platform"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/consulting/transformation-platform" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Transformation Platform</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item 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data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-a58aa9b6c9":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:56:53Z","dc:title":"HR Transformation Services ","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/workforce/hr-transformation"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/workforce/hr-transformation" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">HR Transformation Services </a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-886cb06a9f":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:56:53Z","dc:title":"Integrated workforce mobility","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/workforce/integrated-workforce-mobility"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/workforce/integrated-workforce-mobility" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Integrated workforce mobility</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" 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data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-e9ce969f0b":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:09Z","dc:title":"Sustainability and ESG Strategy Consulting","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/strategy-transactions/sustainability-esg-strategy"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/strategy-transactions/sustainability-esg-strategy" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Sustainability and ESG Strategy Consulting</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-24dbc44352":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:09Z","dc:title":"M&A Advisory Services","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/strategy-transactions/buy-integrate"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/strategy-transactions/buy-integrate" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">M&A Advisory Services</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-5609fb397d":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:09Z","dc:title":"M&A integration","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/strategy-transactions/mergers-acquisitions-integration"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/strategy-transactions/mergers-acquisitions-integration" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">M&A integration</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-46404097aa":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:09Z","dc:title":"Connected Capital Technologies: M&A technology solutions","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/strategy-transactions/connected-capital-technologies"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/strategy-transactions/connected-capital-technologies" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Connected Capital 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class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Capital allocation</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-1" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-43ef2bdb83":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:55:45Z","dc:title":"Assurance","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/assurance"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/assurance" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Assurance</a> <ul class="cmp-navigation__group"> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-107a5d1c01":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:03:32Z","dc:title":"Audit","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/audit"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/audit" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Audit</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-61c5a20a51":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:03:32Z","dc:title":"Climate change and sustainability services","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/climate-change-sustainability-services"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/climate-change-sustainability-services" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Climate change and sustainability services</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-46e33f3be7":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:03:32Z","dc:title":"Financial accounting advisory services","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/financial-accounting-advisory-services"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/financial-accounting-advisory-services" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Financial accounting advisory services</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-094d7bab7a":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:03:32Z","dc:title":"Forensic and Integrity Services","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/forensic-integrity-services"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/forensic-integrity-services" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Forensic and Integrity Services</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-2db1a62714":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:03:32Z","dc:title":"Private client audit experience","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/services/private-client-audit-experience"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/services/private-client-audit-experience" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Private client audit experience</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item 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data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Tax policy and controversy </a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-71fe175b76":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:05:56Z","dc:title":"Global trade","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/insights/global-trade"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/insights/global-trade" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Global trade</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-ede6cf2a84":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:05:56Z","dc:title":"Global tax reform","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/insights/global-tax-reform"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/insights/global-tax-reform" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Global tax reform</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" 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data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-a1c590b33f":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:59:44Z","dc:title":"Future mobility","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/insights/emobility"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/insights/emobility" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Future mobility</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-a1033e8ac2":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:59:44Z","dc:title":"Industrial products","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/industrial-products"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/industrial-products" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Industrial products</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" 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data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-3aad2571ee":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:28Z","dc:title":"Consumer","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/consumer-products-retail"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/consumer-products-retail" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Consumer</a> <ul class="cmp-navigation__group"> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-0538fd2795":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-11T13:34:39Z","dc:title":"Consumer products","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/consumer-products"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/consumer-products" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Consumer products</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-7bcce8840e":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-02-12T06:37:06Z","dc:title":"Transforming Retail","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/retail"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/retail" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Transforming Retail</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-c4dbf550ec":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-02-12T06:37:06Z","dc:title":"The future consumer ","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/future-consumer-index"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/future-consumer-index" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">The future consumer </a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-d8fbca8523":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-02-12T06:37:06Z","dc:title":"Sustainability","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/sustainability-consumer-products-retail"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/sustainability-consumer-products-retail" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Sustainability</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-1" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-24009efe4c":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:28Z","dc:title":"Energy and resources","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/energy-resources"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/energy-resources" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Energy and resources</a> <ul class="cmp-navigation__group"> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-7bf73bb176":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-11T13:08:38Z","dc:title":"Customer experience transformation","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/energy-resources/customer-experience-transformation"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/energy-resources/customer-experience-transformation" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Customer experience transformation</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-8c061850b6":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:00:13Z","dc:title":"Digital grid services","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/energy-resources/power-utilities-digital-grid-services"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/energy-resources/power-utilities-digital-grid-services" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Digital grid services</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-0e1f52eef9":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-11T13:08:58Z","dc:title":"Digital mine","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/energy-resources/mining-metals-digital-mine"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/energy-resources/mining-metals-digital-mine" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Digital mine</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-7e8ce6d4b3":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-12T11:51:39Z","dc:title":"Digital navigator for mining","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/energy-resources/mining-metals-digital-navigator"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/energy-resources/mining-metals-digital-navigator" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Digital navigator for mining</a> </li> <li 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data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-edc513c73e":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:00:31Z","dc:title":"Wealth and asset management","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/wealth-asset-management"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/wealth-asset-management" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Wealth and asset management</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-00f5b32aa5":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:00:31Z","dc:title":"Sustainable finance","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/insights/sustainability-financial-services"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/insights/sustainability-financial-services" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Sustainable finance</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-f72572016e":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:00:31Z","dc:title":"Fintech and ecosystems","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/banking-capital-markets/fintech-ecosystems"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/banking-capital-markets/fintech-ecosystems" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Fintech and ecosystems</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-1" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-2af7c3dbff":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:28Z","dc:title":"Government and infrastructure ","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/government-public-sector"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/government-public-sector" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Government and infrastructure </a> <ul class="cmp-navigation__group"> <li class="cmp-navigation__item 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data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-7da879ab13":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:00:48Z","dc:title":"Public finance management","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/government-public-sector/blockchain"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/government-public-sector/blockchain" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Public finance management</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-1" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-2f3b07f7e2":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:28Z","dc:title":"Health","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/health"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/health" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Health</a> <ul class="cmp-navigation__group"> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-20a200b2b0":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:01:01Z","dc:title":"Health","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/health"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/health" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Health</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-985dee20c6":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:01:01Z","dc:title":"Life Sciences","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/life-sciences"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/life-sciences" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Life Sciences</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-1" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-4f45fbe4b7":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:28Z","dc:title":"Private equity","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/private-equity"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/private-equity" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Private equity</a> <ul class="cmp-navigation__group"> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-cb1fc21a40":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:01:16Z","dc:title":"Digital in private equity ","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/private-equity/digital"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/private-equity/digital" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Digital in private equity </a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-dc7e962e07":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:01:16Z","dc:title":"Exit readiness","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/private-equity/exit-readiness-ipo"}}"> <a 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origination","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/private-equity/deal-origination"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/private-equity/deal-origination" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">PE deal origination</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-6b64abc4ef":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:01:16Z","dc:title":"Private Equity Portfolio Company Value Creation Services","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/private-equity/value-creation"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/private-equity/value-creation" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Private Equity Portfolio Company Value Creation Services</a> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-1" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-d2fc2f419f":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T15:57:28Z","dc:title":"Technology, media & entertainment, and telecommunications","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/tmt"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/tmt" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Technology, media & entertainment, and telecommunications</a> <ul class="cmp-navigation__group"> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-b81b03f494":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:01:34Z","dc:title":"Technology sector","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/tech-sector"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/tech-sector" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Technology sector</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-39b3c87d78":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:01:34Z","dc:title":"Telecommunications","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/telecommunications"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/telecommunications" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">Telecommunications</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" data-cmp-data-layer="{"navigation-9e606dc0b2-item-99c5ed9efc":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/navigation/item","repo:modifyDate":"2024-01-22T16:01:34Z","dc:title":"As-a-service business operations and transformation","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/industries/tmt/aas-business-operations-transformation"}}"> <a href="/en_gl/industries/tmt/aas-business-operations-transformation" data-cmp-clickable class="cmp-navigation__item-link">As-a-service business operations and transformation</a> </li> <li class="cmp-navigation__item cmp-navigation__item--level-2" 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data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-6401635cec":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2025-02-13T13:32:44Z","xdm:text":"<p><br>\r\n<a href=\"/content/ey-unified-site/ey-com/global/main/en_gl/home/media/podcasts.\">EY podcasts</a><br>\r\n<a href=\"/content/ey-unified-site/ey-com/global/main/en_gl/home/media/webcasts.html\">EY webcasts</a><br>\r\n<a href=\"/content/ey-unified-site/ey-com/global/main/en_gl/home/campaigns/case-studies.html\">Case studies</a><br>\r\n</p>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-61d5c8a85c09" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div 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Enabled by data and technology, our services and solutions provide trust through assurance and help clients transform, grow and operate.</p>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-11152743ed78" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p>EY helps clients create long-term value for all stakeholders. 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and services are helping to reframe the future of your industry.</p>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-c6e5c6c6c68c" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p>Discover how EY insights and services are helping to reframe the future of your industry.</p> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press 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The insights and services we provide help to create long-term value for clients, people and society, and to build trust in the capital markets.</p>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-39966fcdd05e" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p>At EY, our purpose is building a better working world. 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"> <div class="upTwoColumns component aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"><div class="up-two-columns"> <div class="up-two-columns__left-container"> <div class="left-container container responsivegrid up-two-columns__left-container-top"> <div id="left-container-2d97e29598" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors up-authors-and-contributors--article-sidebar" data-up-analytics="authors-and-contributors" data-up-is="authors-and-contributors"> <p class="up-authors-and-contributors__multiple-author-title"> Authors </p> <ul class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-links"> <li class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-container"> <a class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link up-authors-and-contributors__analytics-author-link" aria-label="Oliver Jones" href="/en_gl/people/oliver-jones"> <figure class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-content"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-name-container up-authors-and-contributors__author-name-container--is-multiple"> Oliver Jones </div> </figure> </a> <p class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-title"> EY-Parthenon Global Strategy and Transactions Markets, Sustainability and Geostrategy Leader </p> </li> <li class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-container"> <a class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link up-authors-and-contributors__analytics-author-link" aria-label="Courtney Rickert McCaffrey" href="/en_gl/people/courtney-rickert-mccaffrey"> <figure class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-content"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-name-container up-authors-and-contributors__author-name-container--is-multiple"> Courtney Rickert McCaffrey </div> </figure> </a> <p class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-title"> EY Global Geostrategy Insights Leader; Director, Business and CXO Insights, Ernst & Young LLP </p> </li> <li class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-container"> <a class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link up-authors-and-contributors__analytics-author-link" aria-label="Famke Krumbmüller" href="/en_gl/people/famke-krumbmuller"> <figure class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-content"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-name-container up-authors-and-contributors__author-name-container--is-multiple"> Famke Krumbmüller </div> </figure> </a> <p class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-title"> EY-Parthenon EMEIA Leader, Geostrategic Business Group </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="displaymetadata aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"><div> <div class="up-display-metadata-utility"> <span class="up-display-metadata-utility__content"> 16 minute read </span> <span class="up-display-metadata-utility__content"> 27 Mar 2024 </span> </div> </div> </div> <div class="surfaceTags aem-GridColumn 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data-analytics-event-label="The future of globalization: Prepare now for a new era" data-analytics-category="Download Button" data-analytics-link-identifier="download-button" data-resource-title="The future of globalization: Prepare now for a new era" aria-label="Download The future of globalization: Prepare now for a new era"> <span class="cmp-resourcesItem_more-title">Download</span> </a> <span class="cmp-resourcesItem_fileList-download-size">19 MB</span> </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="parsys up-two-columns__right-container"><div class="container responsivegrid section"> <div id="container-20044bebe1" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 aem-Grid--tablet-portrait--12 aem-Grid--mobile--12 aem-Grid--tablet-landscape--12 "> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--mobile--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--11 aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0 aem-GridColumn--mobile--12"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-188a947d93":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-18T09:40:09Z","xdm:text":"<h4><span class=\"copy-block\">CEOs and boards need to revisit their existing business strategies and challenge the implicit geopolitical assumptions that underpin them.</span></h4>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-188a947d93c5" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <h4><span class="copy-block">CEOs and boards need to revisit their existing business strategies and challenge the implicit geopolitical assumptions that underpin them.</span></h4> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> <div class="separator cmp-separator--horizontal-rule aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--11 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--0"> <div class="cmp-separator"> <hr class="cmp-separator__horizontal-rule"/> </div></div> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--mobile--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--11 aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0 aem-GridColumn--mobile--12"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-76c6a99191":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-18T09:40:55Z","xdm:text":"<p><span class=\"copy-block\"><b>In brief</b></span></p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Geopolitics has shifted dramatically and the outlook for the global operating environment remains uncertain.</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Global scenario analysis reveals diverging paths for geopolitics, economic policies and company strategies across different sectors.</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">CEOs and boards should use scenario analysis to strategically position their company to flourish during the turbulent times ahead.</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-76c6a99191b8" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p><span class="copy-block"><b>In brief</b></span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">Geopolitics has shifted dramatically and the outlook for the global operating environment remains uncertain.</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Global scenario analysis reveals diverging paths for geopolitics, economic policies and company strategies across different sectors.</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">CEOs and boards should use scenario analysis to strategically position their company to flourish during the turbulent times ahead.</span></li></ul> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> <div class="separator cmp-separator--horizontal-rule aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--11 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--0"> <div class="cmp-separator"> <hr class="cmp-separator__horizontal-rule"/> </div></div> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--mobile--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--11 aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0 aem-GridColumn--mobile--12"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-d6f7d2feef":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-11-20T07:32:53Z","xdm:text":"<p><span class=\"copy-block rich-text-dropcap--container\"><span class=\"drop-cap\">I</span>n the latest&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/campaigns/ceo/documents/ey-gl-ceo-outlook-pulse-survey-01-2024.pdf\">CEO Survey from January 2024&nbsp;(pdf)</a>,&nbsp;almost all CEOs – 98% – were planning to alter their strategic investment plans as a result of geopolitical challenges. In recent years, the war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and the reordering of global alliance systems have contributed to heightened geopolitical volatility. And the&nbsp;<a href=\"/content/ey-unified-site/ey-com/global/main/en_gl/home/insights/geostrategy/2024-geostrategic-outlook.html\">global elections supercycle</a>&nbsp;in 2024 – in which voters representing more than 50% of the global population will go to the polls – will further elevate geopolitical, policy and regulatory uncertainties. While the global operating environment is never static, this level of geopolitical disruption presents significant challenges to international companies.&nbsp;</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Recent events have accelerated a shift toward a multipolar world. But there is no guarantee that this trajectory will continue. Geopolitical disruption and volatility are set to persist, which will also affect global economic growth and inflation. Indeed, there are multiple disruptive forces shaping the global operating environment, including climate change, technological innovation, demographic shifts, and the rising influence of non-state actors. This creates a highly uncertain outlook for the future of globalization.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Navigating such geopolitical uncertainty requires scenario analysis – the systematic exploration of multiple plausible futures. In shaping their company strategy, CEOs should not rely on one set of predictions about the outlook for globalization, as it may prove incorrect. They should instead assess the potential business implications and strategic imperatives of several alternative global operating environments, rather than trying to predict a precise outcome.&nbsp;</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">In September 2022, as part of the&nbsp;<a title=\"The CEO Agenda\" href=\"/content/ey-unified-site/ey-com/global/main/en_gl/home/campaigns/ceo.html\">CEO Imperative series</a>,&nbsp;which addresses critical issues and actions to help CEOs reframe the future of their organization, the team in the&nbsp;EY-Parthenon Geostrategic Business Group analyzed geopolitical dynamics to explore what <a href=\"/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/documents/ey-the-future-of-globalization.pdf\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">scenarios were likely to emerge</a> in the next five years. Now, a year and a half on, the team has reassessed this analysis. The conclusion? These scenarios have thus far proven resilient and remain plausible futures for the evolution of globalization.&nbsp;</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">EY-Parthenon&nbsp;analysis revealed two key uncertainties as the primary drivers of the future global operating environment:</span></p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Geopolitical relations<br>\r\n This key uncertainty pivots on the critical question of whether the geopolitical environment will be defined by loose alliances or distinct blocs. The answer will be driven largely by the outcome of the war in Ukraine and China’s geopolitical positioning. The policies of the US and EU will also play a crucial role, including the strength and cohesiveness of transatlantic relations. And the foreign policies of various geopolitical swing states – including India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Brazil – will help shape future geopolitical relations.<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Economic policy stance<br>\r\n Governments have been increasingly intervening in their national economies. The second key uncertainty is whether countries will continue to favor such nationalist competition or shift toward more internationalist liberalization in their economic policies. This will be determined by how much governments embrace industrial policies and expand the number of sectors they deem nationally strategic. Such policy decisions will, in turn, be driven by various factors including energy security, climate change impacts and the strength of economic growth.</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Having identified geopolitical relations and countries’ economic policy stances as today’s two key global strategic uncertainties, we focused on four plausible scenarios for the future of globalization based on the intersection of these issues.</span></p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">“Self-reliance reigns” would result from decaying alliances and weak economic growth pushing countries to promote domestic production and seek greater self-sufficiency</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">“Cold War II,” in contrast, would arise from a hardening of alliances and ideological competition combined with nationalist and statist economic policies</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">“Friends first” would also be characterized by strong geopolitical alliances but trade and capital flow relatively freely among allies, leading to companies “friendshoring” key operations and supply chains</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">“Globalization lite” would be a relatively liberalized and globalized operating environment with lower geopolitical tensions</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-d6f7d2feefdd" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p><span class="copy-block rich-text-dropcap--container"><span class="drop-cap">I</span>n the latest <a href="/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/campaigns/ceo/documents/ey-gl-ceo-outlook-pulse-survey-01-2024.pdf">CEO Survey from January 2024 (pdf)</a>, almost all CEOs – 98% – were planning to alter their strategic investment plans as a result of geopolitical challenges. In recent years, the war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and the reordering of global alliance systems have contributed to heightened geopolitical volatility. And the <a href="/en_gl/insights/geostrategy/2024-geostrategic-outlook">global elections supercycle</a> in 2024 – in which voters representing more than 50% of the global population will go to the polls – will further elevate geopolitical, policy and regulatory uncertainties. While the global operating environment is never static, this level of geopolitical disruption presents significant challenges to international companies. </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Recent events have accelerated a shift toward a multipolar world. But there is no guarantee that this trajectory will continue. Geopolitical disruption and volatility are set to persist, which will also affect global economic growth and inflation. Indeed, there are multiple disruptive forces shaping the global operating environment, including climate change, technological innovation, demographic shifts, and the rising influence of non-state actors. This creates a highly uncertain outlook for the future of globalization.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Navigating such geopolitical uncertainty requires scenario analysis – the systematic exploration of multiple plausible futures. In shaping their company strategy, CEOs should not rely on one set of predictions about the outlook for globalization, as it may prove incorrect. They should instead assess the potential business implications and strategic imperatives of several alternative global operating environments, rather than trying to predict a precise outcome. </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">In September 2022, as part of the <a title="The CEO Agenda" href="/en_gl/ceo">CEO Imperative series</a>, which addresses critical issues and actions to help CEOs reframe the future of their organization, the team in the EY-Parthenon Geostrategic Business Group analyzed geopolitical dynamics to explore what <a href="/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/documents/ey-the-future-of-globalization.pdf" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer">scenarios were likely to emerge</a> in the next five years. Now, a year and a half on, the team has reassessed this analysis. The conclusion? These scenarios have thus far proven resilient and remain plausible futures for the evolution of globalization. </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">EY-Parthenon analysis revealed two key uncertainties as the primary drivers of the future global operating environment:</span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">Geopolitical relations<br /> This key uncertainty pivots on the critical question of whether the geopolitical environment will be defined by loose alliances or distinct blocs. The answer will be driven largely by the outcome of the war in Ukraine and China’s geopolitical positioning. The policies of the US and EU will also play a crucial role, including the strength and cohesiveness of transatlantic relations. And the foreign policies of various geopolitical swing states – including India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Brazil – will help shape future geopolitical relations.<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Economic policy stance<br /> Governments have been increasingly intervening in their national economies. The second key uncertainty is whether countries will continue to favor such nationalist competition or shift toward more internationalist liberalization in their economic policies. This will be determined by how much governments embrace industrial policies and expand the number of sectors they deem nationally strategic. Such policy decisions will, in turn, be driven by various factors including energy security, climate change impacts and the strength of economic growth.</span></li></ul> <p><span class="copy-block">Having identified geopolitical relations and countries’ economic policy stances as today’s two key global strategic uncertainties, we focused on four plausible scenarios for the future of globalization based on the intersection of these issues.</span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">“Self-reliance reigns” would result from decaying alliances and weak economic growth pushing countries to promote domestic production and seek greater self-sufficiency</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">“Cold War II,” in contrast, would arise from a hardening of alliances and ideological competition combined with nationalist and statist economic policies</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">“Friends first” would also be characterized by strong geopolitical alliances but trade and capital flow relatively freely among allies, leading to companies “friendshoring” key operations and supply chains</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">“Globalization lite” would be a relatively liberalized and globalized operating environment with lower geopolitical tensions</span></li></ul> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="upHtmlApp component aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2"><div id="htmlApp-e1ae3fa05b3c" data-up-is="html-app" class="up-html-app"> <div class="flourish-embed" data-src="story/1667380?46446"><script src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.js"></script></div> </div> </div> <div class="upArticleReference component aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2"><span class="up-article-reference" data-up-is="article-reference" data-up-analytics="article-reference" data-analytics-page-title="Prepare now for the new era of globalization | EY - Global" data-up-is-expanded="false"> <button id="article-reference-heading" class="up-article-reference__heading" data-up-hook-article-reference="heading" aria-controls="article-reference-content" aria-expanded="false" role="button"> <span class="up-article-reference__heading-opened">Open image description </span> <span class="up-article-reference__heading-closed">Close image description </span> </button> <div id="article-reference-content" class="up-article-reference__content" data-up-hook-article-reference="content" role="region" aria-labelledby="article-reference-heading" aria-hidden="true" inert> <span>The image shows a 2x2 matrix. One axis is geopolitical relations, ranging from loose alliances to distinct blocs. The other axis is economic policy stance, ranging from internationalist liberalization to nationalist statism. The four scenarios that emerge from the combination of these axes are Globalization lite, Friends first, Cold War II and Self-reliance reigns.</span> </div> </span> <br/> </div> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--mobile--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0 aem-GridColumn--mobile--12"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-6e88d815b6":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-18T09:59:02Z","xdm:text":"<p><span class=\"copy-block\">From the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s until recently, the global operating environment had been in the quadrant surrounding our Globalization lite scenario. The world shifted toward full globalization in the 1990s and early 2000s, and then began to move inward on the matrix following the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. But recent systemic shocks have created significant momentum toward a Cold War II scenario and away from more open globalization. Government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic created an immediate move toward more nationalist, statist policies. And, over time, greater cohesiveness within alliance systems developed. The war in Ukraine produced a dramatic shift toward more distinct blocs in the geopolitical system and more statist economic policies – although the latter are targeted at products and sectors deemed by governments to be strategic for national security, broadly defined.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">This distinction points to the primary update to this future of globalization scenario analysis since its launch 18 months ago: the divergent paths of different sectors within the matrix. The more a sector is viewed as strategic by the government, the more governments are seeking to de-risk supply chains and production in that sector. Such economic security policies will push more strategic sectors towards a Cold War II scenario, while less strategic sectors move toward a more Friends first-style operating environment. As a result, we now appear to be entering a new era of selective globalization – or selective deglobalization in some cases.</span></p>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-6e88d815b664" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p><span class="copy-block">From the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s until recently, the global operating environment had been in the quadrant surrounding our Globalization lite scenario. The world shifted toward full globalization in the 1990s and early 2000s, and then began to move inward on the matrix following the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. But recent systemic shocks have created significant momentum toward a Cold War II scenario and away from more open globalization. Government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic created an immediate move toward more nationalist, statist policies. And, over time, greater cohesiveness within alliance systems developed. The war in Ukraine produced a dramatic shift toward more distinct blocs in the geopolitical system and more statist economic policies – although the latter are targeted at products and sectors deemed by governments to be strategic for national security, broadly defined.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">This distinction points to the primary update to this future of globalization scenario analysis since its launch 18 months ago: the divergent paths of different sectors within the matrix. The more a sector is viewed as strategic by the government, the more governments are seeking to de-risk supply chains and production in that sector. Such economic security policies will push more strategic sectors towards a Cold War II scenario, while less strategic sectors move toward a more Friends first-style operating environment. As a result, we now appear to be entering a new era of selective globalization – or selective deglobalization in some cases.</span></p> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> <div class="upHtmlApp component aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2"><div id="htmlApp-3ab9548828b8" data-up-is="html-app" class="up-html-app"> <div class="flourish-embed" data-src="story/2180439?306796"><script src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.js"></script></div> </div> </div> <div class="upArticleReference component aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2"><span class="up-article-reference" data-up-is="article-reference" data-up-analytics="article-reference" data-analytics-page-title="Prepare now for the new era of globalization | EY - Global" data-up-is-expanded="false"> <button id="article-reference-heading" class="up-article-reference__heading" data-up-hook-article-reference="heading" aria-controls="article-reference-content" aria-expanded="false" role="button"> <span class="up-article-reference__heading-opened">Open image description </span> <span class="up-article-reference__heading-closed">Close image description </span> </button> <div id="article-reference-content" class="up-article-reference__content" data-up-hook-article-reference="content" role="region" aria-labelledby="article-reference-heading" aria-hidden="true" inert> <span>The image shows a 2x2 matrix with four potential scenarios for the future of globalization. It shows that more strategic sectors are closer to the Cold War II scenario, while non-strategic sectors are closer to the Friends first scenario. </span> </div> </span> <br/> </div> <div class="nested-tile aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--newline aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--mobile--newline aem-GridColumn--mobile--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0"><div class="content"> <div class="height-control"></div> <div class="nestedTileSec nestedTile-parsys rightAlign small"> <div id="nested-tile-container-1fb1cb9b6c" class="cmp-container"> <div class="link-area"> <div class="cmp-link-area cmp-link-area--regular " data-analytics-category="Link Area"> <p class="cmp-link-area__header"> How EY-Parthenon can help </p> <div> <ul class="cmp-link-area__regular "> <li class="cmp-link-area__item "> <div class="cmp-link-area__wrapper"> <p class="cmp-link-area__item--title"> <a data-analytics-link-click data-analytics-event-label="linkAreaHeader-EY-Parthenon-How EY-Parthenon can Help" data-analytics-action-value="EY-Parthenon Geostrategic Business Group" href="/en_gl/services/geostrategy/geostrategic-business-group"> EY-Parthenon Geostrategic Business Group </a> </p> </div> <p class="cmp-link-area__item__paragraph">The Geostrategic Business Group can help translate geopolitical insights into business strategy to help manage political risk. Find out how.</p> <a class="cmp-link-area__item__readmore" href="/en_gl/services/geostrategy/geostrategic-business-group"> Read more </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="richText-content cmp-text nested-tile--georgia-font"> <p><span class="copy-block">Although recent momentum has been toward Cold War II or Friends first, near- and medium-term events could shift the trajectory toward another scenario. More isolationist politicians winning office during the global elections supercycle or a deterioration in alliances could lead to a turn toward self-reliance reigns. And a proliferation of regional trade agreements could precipitate a more broad-based turn toward Friends first. More dramatic shocks – such as a negotiated end to ongoing conflicts and a strong global economic rebound – could even reverse the recent momentum and push the world back toward Globalization lite.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block"> </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Of course, the future of globalization could fall somewhere between these scenarios. Or globalization could develop in more extreme ways over the next five years. For example, it could be derailed by the world veering toward a large-scale military conflict between great powers (i.e., a “hot war”). There are a variety of current tensions that make such scenarios possible. But we do not assess them to be as likely as the more moderate scenarios detailed here.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block"> </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Examining our set of four scenarios can help CEOs structure the uncertainty they face, allowing them to analyze and prepare for potential consequences in a more strategic way. To help CEOs and boards assess how they may need to revise their company strategy to adapt to whichever future global operating environment arises, we explore each scenario in more detail below. The scenarios are set out in order, from the most to the least restrictive policy environment for international business.</span></p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="container responsivegrid aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="chapter1" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 aem-Grid--tablet-portrait--12 aem-Grid--mobile--12 aem-Grid--tablet-landscape--12 "> <div class="container responsivegrid cmp-container--component-e2e aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="container-77af6f0df9" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 aem-Grid--tablet-landscape--12 "> <div class="chapter-breaker aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--default--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker up-chapter-breaker---with-image up-chapter-breaker--bothleft up-chapter-breaker--article" id="chapter-breaker-2aa05a8283"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__img"> <div class="up-image " data-up-is="image"> <div class="up-image__image" data-up-hook-image="[image]" data-aspect-ratio="1.5" style="--up-image-focal-x: 50%; --up-image-focal-y: 50%"> <div data-cmp-is="image" data-cmp-widths="100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,900,1000,1100,1200,1600,1800,2000,2400,2700,3000,3300,3600,3840" data-cmp-src="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width={width}" data-asset-id="e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269" data-cmp-filereference="/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/images/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg" id="image-render-30adf75966" data-cmp-data-layer="{"image-render-30adf75966":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/up-image/image-render","repo:modifyDate":"2023-08-16T12:48:15Z","dc:title":"View Of Empty Chairs In Rows","image":{"repo:id":"e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269","repo:modifyDate":"2023-08-16T12:47:55Z","@type":"image/jpeg","repo:path":"/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/images/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg"}}}" data-cmp-hook-image="imageV3" class="cmp-image" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject"> <img src="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85" srcset="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=100 100w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=200 200w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=300 300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=400 400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=500 500w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=600 600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=700 700w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=800 800w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=900 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2000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2400 2400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2700 2700w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3000 3000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3300 3300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3600 3600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--e27e6004-b177-4519-8015-acca21146269/ey-view-of-empty-chairs-in-rows.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3840 3840w" loading="lazy" class="cmp-image__image" itemprop="contentUrl" width="3840" height="2560" alt="View Of Empty Chairs In Rows " title="View Of Empty Chairs In Rows"/> <meta itemprop="caption" content="View Of Empty Chairs In Rows"/> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__gradient"></div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__number-container"> <span class="up-chapter-breaker__number">1</span> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content-grid"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content"> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__label"> Chapter 1 </p> <h2 class="up-chapter-breaker__title">Self-reliance reigns</h2> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__subtitle">A self-reliance reigns world would create a variety of challenges for international companies amid an era of isolationism.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--mobile--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0 aem-GridColumn--mobile--12"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-b4a0fb10c1":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-11-27T08:11:28Z","xdm:text":"<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Self-reliance reigns offers a rerun of the 1930s but with greater isolationism. Fraying alliances create a more volatile geopolitical environment; economic and security rationales are conflated; nationalism and populism are ascendent; and many national leaders turn away from alliances and international engagements.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Policymakers are motivated by achieving domestic self-sufficiency and economic security despite the high costs involved. Industrial policy, protectionism and export controls are embraced as antitrust efforts weaken to create national champions in an increasingly broad set of geostrategic sectors – ranging from technology and energy to life sciences and agribusiness.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Isolationist policies result in increased trade volatility, creating a subdued and unstable economic growth outlook. Nationalist policies, including trade barriers, price controls and other restrictive measures, further fuel inflation. Isolationism, weaker technological progress and increased conflict risks limit business investment and productivity growth.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">This low-growth, low-innovation environment leads to public frustration with stagnant living standards. This in turn drives further political instability and international isolation. Global trade and capital flows diminish as countries bring supply chains and strategic sectors onshore. Economies fragment into domestically focused enclaves, limiting growth and investment opportunities. While companies in larger markets may have sufficient growth opportunities, those in smaller markets hit walls.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">A Self-reliance reigns world would create various challenges for international companies, including:</span></p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Revenue<br>\r\n Pockets of growth in geostrategic sectors provide some opportunities but most companies face more modest growth, higher inflation and diminished revenue potential<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Growth and investment<br>\r\n M&amp;A and other investment opportunities are mostly constrained to domestic markets, limiting business growth<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Operations and supply chain<br>\r\n Protectionist politics – as well as the lack of global coordination on climate change – make cross-border supply chains costlier and more difficult to manage<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Data and intellectual property<br>\r\n Protectionist trade measures, industrial policies and data privacy rules restrict cross-border data flows and limit global innovation<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Human capital<br>\r\n Heightened nationalism leads most countries to limit international migration, leading to labor shortages and higher talent costs in many markets<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Finance and tax<br>\r\n Tax rates may increase to pay for industrial policies, although nationalized economies create less need for foreign currency holdings<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Reputation and compliance<br>\r\n Lack of international cooperation creates a complex regulatory environment, while nationalism increases reputational risks for companies operating abroad</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-b4a0fb10c1b3" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p><span class="copy-block">Self-reliance reigns offers a rerun of the 1930s but with greater isolationism. Fraying alliances create a more volatile geopolitical environment; economic and security rationales are conflated; nationalism and populism are ascendent; and many national leaders turn away from alliances and international engagements.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Policymakers are motivated by achieving domestic self-sufficiency and economic security despite the high costs involved. Industrial policy, protectionism and export controls are embraced as antitrust efforts weaken to create national champions in an increasingly broad set of geostrategic sectors – ranging from technology and energy to life sciences and agribusiness.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Isolationist policies result in increased trade volatility, creating a subdued and unstable economic growth outlook. Nationalist policies, including trade barriers, price controls and other restrictive measures, further fuel inflation. Isolationism, weaker technological progress and increased conflict risks limit business investment and productivity growth.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">This low-growth, low-innovation environment leads to public frustration with stagnant living standards. This in turn drives further political instability and international isolation. Global trade and capital flows diminish as countries bring supply chains and strategic sectors onshore. Economies fragment into domestically focused enclaves, limiting growth and investment opportunities. While companies in larger markets may have sufficient growth opportunities, those in smaller markets hit walls.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">A Self-reliance reigns world would create various challenges for international companies, including:</span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">Revenue<br /> Pockets of growth in geostrategic sectors provide some opportunities but most companies face more modest growth, higher inflation and diminished revenue potential<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Growth and investment<br /> M&A and other investment opportunities are mostly constrained to domestic markets, limiting business growth<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Operations and supply chain<br /> Protectionist politics – as well as the lack of global coordination on climate change – make cross-border supply chains costlier and more difficult to manage<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Data and intellectual property<br /> Protectionist trade measures, industrial policies and data privacy rules restrict cross-border data flows and limit global innovation<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Human capital<br /> Heightened nationalism leads most countries to limit international migration, leading to labor shortages and higher talent costs in many markets<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Finance and tax<br /> Tax rates may increase to pay for industrial policies, although nationalized economies create less need for foreign currency holdings<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Reputation and compliance<br /> Lack of international cooperation creates a complex regulatory environment, while nationalism increases reputational risks for companies operating abroad</span></li></ul> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> <div class="separator aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="cmp-separator"> <hr class="cmp-separator__horizontal-rule"/> </div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="container responsivegrid cmp-container--component-e2e aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="chapter2" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="chapter-breaker aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker up-chapter-breaker---with-image up-chapter-breaker--bothleft up-chapter-breaker--article" id="chapter-breaker-cccb61d068"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__img"> <div class="up-image " data-up-is="image"> <div class="up-image__image" data-up-hook-image="[image]" data-aspect-ratio="1.5" style="--up-image-focal-x: 50%; --up-image-focal-y: 50%"> <div data-cmp-is="image" data-cmp-widths="100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,900,1000,1100,1200,1600,1800,2000,2400,2700,3000,3300,3600,3840" data-cmp-src="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width={width}" data-asset-id="0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390" data-cmp-filereference="/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/images/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg" id="image-render-89702a3bf3" data-cmp-data-layer="{"image-render-89702a3bf3":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/up-image/image-render","repo:modifyDate":"2023-09-26T14:00:00Z","dc:title":"Aerial drone view of semi trucks crossing a tidal river","image":{"repo:id":"0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390","repo:modifyDate":"2023-08-16T12:49:10Z","@type":"image/jpeg","repo:path":"/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/images/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg"}}}" data-cmp-hook-image="imageV3" class="cmp-image" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject"> <img src="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85" srcset="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=100 100w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=200 200w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=300 300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=400 400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=500 500w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=600 600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=700 700w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=800 800w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=900 900w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=1000 1000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=1100 1100w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=1200 1200w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=1600 1600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=1800 1800w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2000 2000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2400 2400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2700 2700w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3000 3000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3300 3300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3600 3600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--0611c274-f4f4-4ca5-b656-4d1c5ae9b390/ey-aerial-drone-view-of-semi-trucks-crossing-a-tidal-river.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3840 3840w" loading="lazy" class="cmp-image__image" itemprop="contentUrl" width="3840" height="2560" alt="Aerial drone view of semi trucks crossing a tidal river" title="Aerial drone view of semi trucks crossing a tidal river"/> <meta itemprop="caption" content="Aerial drone view of semi trucks crossing a tidal river"/> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__gradient"></div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__number-container"> <span class="up-chapter-breaker__number">2</span> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content-grid"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content"> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__label"> Chapter 2 </p> <h2 class="up-chapter-breaker__title">Cold War II</h2> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__subtitle">In a Cold War II world, companies would have to navigate distinct economic blocs organized around geopolitical alliances.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--mobile--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0 aem-GridColumn--mobile--12"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-cb1fd47d0f":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-25T14:03:24Z","xdm:text":"<p><span class=\"copy-block\">The Cold War II scenario matches many of the characteristics of the first Cold War. The hardening of alliances and ideological competition creates a world order defined by two distinct blocs. But in this scenario, based on current trends, one bloc is likely to be comprised of the US, the EU and their allies; the other led by China and its allies. There is also a third bloc of largely non-aligned or multi-aligned countries that are under pressure to choose a side. Geopolitical tensions are high and there are more conflicts, including proxy wars between the great powers.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Security, rather than economic rationales, drives domestic policymaking. Governments intervene in supply chains, limit cross-border investments, and impose export controls and further restrictions on doing business with companies in other blocs. Technology is at the center of geopolitical competition.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Governments introduce industrial policies and trade protectionism in an increasing number of geostrategic sectors – spreading from technology and energy to include advanced manufacturing and life sciences. These industrial policies, and reduced antitrust scrutiny, may provide opportunities for larger companies with dominant market positions.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">The division of the global economy into blocs constrains private sector innovation and growth opportunities. A focus on self-reliance within blocs generates a weaker global economic rebound and trade barriers between blocs force companies to reorient supply chains, fueling higher levels of inflation. This situation effectively shrinks the size of the global operating environment for companies to markets aligned with their home government.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">In a Cold War II world, companies must contend with several key issues:</span></p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Revenue<br>\r\n Extreme rivalry, trade barriers and elevated conflict risks between blocs constrain revenue growth opportunities<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Growth and investment<br>\r\n M&amp;A and other investment opportunities are confined to the markets aligned with a company’s home-country government<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Operations and supply chain<br>\r\n Companies must adjust their trade and supply chain relationships to operate within their home country’s bloc, leading to increased costs in many cases<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Data and intellectual property<br>\r\n Governments impose export controls on strategic technologies and their inputs, including critical minerals. The blocs develop different technology standards and regulations, reducing cross-border digital flows<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Human capital<br>\r\n International mobility is confined to intra-bloc migration, limiting global talent pools<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Finance and tax<br>\r\n Companies in geostrategic sectors are likely to receive low-cost government financing. Businesses in each bloc rely on different currencies for international transactions<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Reputation and compliance<br>\r\n Regulatory and product standards differ by bloc, but the high risk of operating across blocs means companies are likely to comply with only one standard</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-cb1fd47d0f10" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p><span class="copy-block">The Cold War II scenario matches many of the characteristics of the first Cold War. The hardening of alliances and ideological competition creates a world order defined by two distinct blocs. But in this scenario, based on current trends, one bloc is likely to be comprised of the US, the EU and their allies; the other led by China and its allies. There is also a third bloc of largely non-aligned or multi-aligned countries that are under pressure to choose a side. Geopolitical tensions are high and there are more conflicts, including proxy wars between the great powers.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Security, rather than economic rationales, drives domestic policymaking. Governments intervene in supply chains, limit cross-border investments, and impose export controls and further restrictions on doing business with companies in other blocs. Technology is at the center of geopolitical competition.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Governments introduce industrial policies and trade protectionism in an increasing number of geostrategic sectors – spreading from technology and energy to include advanced manufacturing and life sciences. These industrial policies, and reduced antitrust scrutiny, may provide opportunities for larger companies with dominant market positions.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">The division of the global economy into blocs constrains private sector innovation and growth opportunities. A focus on self-reliance within blocs generates a weaker global economic rebound and trade barriers between blocs force companies to reorient supply chains, fueling higher levels of inflation. This situation effectively shrinks the size of the global operating environment for companies to markets aligned with their home government.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">In a Cold War II world, companies must contend with several key issues:</span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">Revenue<br /> Extreme rivalry, trade barriers and elevated conflict risks between blocs constrain revenue growth opportunities<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Growth and investment<br /> M&A and other investment opportunities are confined to the markets aligned with a company’s home-country government<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Operations and supply chain<br /> Companies must adjust their trade and supply chain relationships to operate within their home country’s bloc, leading to increased costs in many cases<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Data and intellectual property<br /> Governments impose export controls on strategic technologies and their inputs, including critical minerals. The blocs develop different technology standards and regulations, reducing cross-border digital flows<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Human capital<br /> International mobility is confined to intra-bloc migration, limiting global talent pools<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Finance and tax<br /> Companies in geostrategic sectors are likely to receive low-cost government financing. Businesses in each bloc rely on different currencies for international transactions<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Reputation and compliance<br /> Regulatory and product standards differ by bloc, but the high risk of operating across blocs means companies are likely to comply with only one standard</span></li></ul> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> <div class="container responsivegrid cmp-container--component-e2e aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="chapter3" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="chapter-breaker aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker up-chapter-breaker---with-image up-chapter-breaker--bothleft up-chapter-breaker--article" id="chapter-breaker-651a05c2db"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__img"> <div class="up-image " data-up-is="image"> <div class="up-image__image" data-up-hook-image="[image]" data-aspect-ratio="1.5" style="--up-image-focal-x: 50%; --up-image-focal-y: 50%"> <div data-cmp-is="image" data-cmp-widths="100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,900,1000,1100,1200,1600,1800,2000,2400,2700,3000,3300,3600,3840" data-cmp-src="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width={width}" data-asset-id="127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440" data-cmp-filereference="/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/images/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg" id="image-render-96c8ba1b25" data-cmp-data-layer="{"image-render-96c8ba1b25":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/up-image/image-render","repo:modifyDate":"2023-08-16T13:07:58Z","dc:title":"Dangerous waterfall crossing","image":{"repo:id":"127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440","repo:modifyDate":"2023-08-16T12:58:19Z","@type":"image/jpeg","repo:path":"/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/images/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg"}}}" data-cmp-hook-image="imageV3" class="cmp-image" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject"> <img src="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85" srcset="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=100 100w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=200 200w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=300 300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=400 400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=500 500w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=600 600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=700 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1600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=1800 1800w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2000 2000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2400 2400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2700 2700w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3000 3000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3300 3300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3600 3600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--127014f3-379d-415d-a24e-cd35dacf8440/ey-dangerous-waterfall-crossing.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3840 3840w" loading="lazy" class="cmp-image__image" itemprop="contentUrl" width="3840" height="2560" alt="Dangerous waterfall crossing " title="Dangerous waterfall crossing"/> <meta itemprop="caption" content="Dangerous waterfall crossing"/> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__gradient"></div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__number-container"> <span class="up-chapter-breaker__number">3</span> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content-grid"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content"> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__label"> Chapter 3 </p> <h2 class="up-chapter-breaker__title">Friends first</h2> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__subtitle">In a Friends first world, companies face a combination of challenges and opportunities within a complex geostrategic environment.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="nested-tile aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--newline aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--mobile--newline aem-GridColumn--mobile--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0"><div class="content"> <div class="height-control"></div> <div class="nestedTileSec nestedTile-parsys rightAlign small"> <div id="nested-tile-container-fd62701e6e" class="cmp-container"> <div class="link-area"> <div class="cmp-link-area cmp-link-area--regular " data-analytics-category="Link Area"> <p class="cmp-link-area__header"> How EY-Parthenon can help </p> <div> <ul class="cmp-link-area__regular cmp-link-area__regular-one-item "> <li class="cmp-link-area__item "> <div class="cmp-link-area__wrapper"> <p class="cmp-link-area__item--title"> <a data-analytics-link-click data-analytics-event-label="linkAreaHeader-EY-Parthenon-How EY-Parthenon can Help" data-analytics-action-value="Strategy Consulting Services" href="/en_gl/services/strategy/consulting"> Strategy Consulting Services </a> </p> </div> <p class="cmp-link-area__item__paragraph">Our Strategy Consulting teams help CEOs achieve maximum value for stakeholders by designing strategies that improve profitability and long-term value.</p> <a class="cmp-link-area__item__readmore" href="/en_gl/services/strategy/consulting"> Read more </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="richText-content cmp-text nested-tile--georgia-font"> <p><span class="copy-block">Friends first is a less familiar geostrategic environment, somewhat reminiscent of the early 1900s. In this scenario, geopolitics is characterized by a complex set of alliances and affinity groupings, which are sometimes institutionalized by trade and investment agreements. Governments prioritize strategic supply chains within their alliances, and companies shift toward “friendshoring” key operations and supplies. Despite these divisions, geopolitical tensions are at manageable levels as governments focus on supporting domestic economic growth.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span class="copy-block">Policymaking is balanced between economic, security and sustainability rationales. Governments prioritize economic relationships with allied countries, but there are few restrictions on cross-border flows outside of a limited set of strategic sectors, including advanced digital technology, energy and advanced manufacturing.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span class="copy-block">Liberalized policies and a greater focus on supply chain resilience and operational optimization within alliances drive a moderate global rebound. Friends first policies create technological hubs that support productivity growth within regional hubs, but overall trade barriers limit gains.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span class="copy-block">CEOs must balance sustainability imperatives and geopolitical pressures with market dynamics when making operational, supply chain and strategic decisions. The relative importance of these considerations varies by sector, but all companies find themselves in a more complicated geostrategic environment.</span></p> <p> </p> <p><span class="copy-block">In a Friends first world, companies face both challenges and opportunities:</span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">Revenue<br /> A moderate global economic rebound offers modest revenue growth opportunities to companies across sectors and geographies<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Growth and investment<br /> Investment opportunities are strong among markets friendly with companies’ home governments amid a reorganization of global corporate footprints<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Operations and supply chain<br /> Sustainability is a key issue for governments, companies and consumers – and a strong rationale for companies’ nearshoring and onshoring efforts<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Data and intellectual property<br /> Geopolitical competition forces the onshoring or friendshoring of technology supply chains, leading to divergent technologies and data management practices<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Human capital<br /> The intersection of technology, globalization, demographics and inequality create different working environments within alliances and regional groupings<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Finance and tax<br /> Inflation and the cost of capital vary between markets and groupings of allies, while tariff rates fall in a more liberalized economic policy environment<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Reputation and compliance<br /> Stakeholder management creates a variety of upside and downside reputational risks. Compliance is complicated by overlapping trade and investment agreements</span></li></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="container responsivegrid cmp-container--component-e2e aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="chapter3" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="chapter-breaker aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker up-chapter-breaker---with-image up-chapter-breaker--bothleft up-chapter-breaker--article" id="chapter-breaker-545d33698c"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__img"> <div class="up-image " data-up-is="image"> <div class="up-image__image" data-up-hook-image="[image]" data-aspect-ratio="1.5" style="--up-image-focal-x: 50%; --up-image-focal-y: 50%"> <div data-cmp-is="image" data-cmp-widths="100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,900,1000,1100,1200,1600,1800,2000,2400,2700,3000,3300,3600,3840" 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ware","image":{"repo:id":"802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86","repo:modifyDate":"2023-08-16T13:05:01Z","@type":"image/jpeg","repo:path":"/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/insights/geostrategy/images/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg"}}}" data-cmp-hook-image="imageV3" class="cmp-image" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject"> <img src="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85" srcset="/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=100 100w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=200 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1200w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=1600 1600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=1800 1800w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2000 2000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2400 2400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2700 2700w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3000 3000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3300 3300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3600 3600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--802f5463-8b8a-498f-8435-fe69b5cefd86/ey-aerial-view-of-cars-waiting-to-be-unloaded-at-the-logistics-warehouse.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3840 3840w" loading="lazy" class="cmp-image__image" itemprop="contentUrl" width="3840" height="2560" alt="Aerial view of cars waiting to be unloaded at the logistics warehouse" title="Aerial view of cars waiting to be unloaded at the logistics warehouse, Aerial view of cars waiting to be unloaded at the logistics ware"/> <meta itemprop="caption" content="Aerial view of cars waiting to be unloaded at the logistics warehouse, Aerial view of cars waiting to be unloaded at the logistics ware"/> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__gradient"></div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__number-container"> <span class="up-chapter-breaker__number">4</span> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content-grid"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content"> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__label"> Chapter 4 </p> <h2 class="up-chapter-breaker__title">Globalization lite</h2> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__subtitle">Companies would have a variety of opportunities associated with more open markets – as well as some lingering challenges – in a Globalization lite world.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--mobile--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0 aem-GridColumn--mobile--12"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-4784729670":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-25T14:04:16Z","xdm:text":"<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Globalization lite presents a partial return to the 1990s and early 2000s. Low levels of geopolitical tensions create a more stable and predictable global operating environment for companies. Ideological blocs fade in significance as trade-driven partnerships become more important. International relations and problem-solving for global issues such as climate change become more multilateral.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Economics considerations are given more weight than security rationales in policymaking. Market access and economic growth become more important than geopolitical considerations in governments’ economic policy stance. As a result, governments shift away from the industrial policy and supply chain intervention of the early 2020s in all but the most strategic sectors, such as digital technology.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">As global economic growth rebounds, alliances fade in relevance and policy constraints on globalization recede. Stronger globalization reduces trade barriers and revives a focus on technological progress, lowering inflation. Liberalization raises investment and productivity growth and improves living standards.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Companies are able to make operational, supply chain and strategic decisions based largely on market fundamentals – although political risks still shape corporate decision-making in the technology and energy sectors. But this new wave of globalization is moderated by stakeholder capitalism interests. Sustainability is an important consideration in supply chain and strategic decisions, due to both government regulations and stakeholder preference.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Companies would have a variety of opportunities – as well as lingering challenges – in a Globalization lite world:</span></p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Revenue<br>\r\n Strong global economic performance provides significant revenue growth opportunities for many companies<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Growth and investment<br>\r\n Significantly reduced barriers to cross-border trade and investment open new M&amp;A and other opportunities for international companies<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Operations and supply chain<br>\r\n The geopolitical environment supports efficient international supply chains, although sustainability considerations support some nearshoring<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Data and intellectual property<br>\r\n Less draconian policies regarding the geostrategic nature of the technology sector accelerate digital and technological innovation<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Human capital<br>\r\n Increasing innovation and disruption create entirely new lines of work, resulting in skills gaps becoming a bigger challenge<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Finance and tax<br>\r\n Capital costs are low, given limited inflation and high growth. Policymakers impose a higher price for carbon in markets around the world<br>\r\n <br>\r\n </span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Reputation and compliance<br>\r\n Global coordination on standards reduces compliance costs. Renewed multilateralism leads to lower geopolitically driven reputational risks</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-478472967090" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p><span class="copy-block">Globalization lite presents a partial return to the 1990s and early 2000s. Low levels of geopolitical tensions create a more stable and predictable global operating environment for companies. Ideological blocs fade in significance as trade-driven partnerships become more important. International relations and problem-solving for global issues such as climate change become more multilateral.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Economics considerations are given more weight than security rationales in policymaking. Market access and economic growth become more important than geopolitical considerations in governments’ economic policy stance. As a result, governments shift away from the industrial policy and supply chain intervention of the early 2020s in all but the most strategic sectors, such as digital technology.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">As global economic growth rebounds, alliances fade in relevance and policy constraints on globalization recede. Stronger globalization reduces trade barriers and revives a focus on technological progress, lowering inflation. Liberalization raises investment and productivity growth and improves living standards.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Companies are able to make operational, supply chain and strategic decisions based largely on market fundamentals – although political risks still shape corporate decision-making in the technology and energy sectors. But this new wave of globalization is moderated by stakeholder capitalism interests. Sustainability is an important consideration in supply chain and strategic decisions, due to both government regulations and stakeholder preference.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Companies would have a variety of opportunities – as well as lingering challenges – in a Globalization lite world:</span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">Revenue<br /> Strong global economic performance provides significant revenue growth opportunities for many companies<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Growth and investment<br /> Significantly reduced barriers to cross-border trade and investment open new M&A and other opportunities for international companies<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Operations and supply chain<br /> The geopolitical environment supports efficient international supply chains, although sustainability considerations support some nearshoring<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Data and intellectual property<br /> Less draconian policies regarding the geostrategic nature of the technology sector accelerate digital and technological innovation<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Human capital<br /> Increasing innovation and disruption create entirely new lines of work, resulting in skills gaps becoming a bigger challenge<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Finance and tax<br /> Capital costs are low, given limited inflation and high growth. Policymakers impose a higher price for carbon in markets around the world<br /> <br /> </span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Reputation and compliance<br /> Global coordination on standards reduces compliance costs. Renewed multilateralism leads to lower geopolitically driven reputational risks</span></li></ul> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> <div class="container responsivegrid cmp-container--component-e2e aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="chapter3" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="chapter-breaker aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker up-chapter-breaker---with-image 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2400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--c283023c-98b8-4843-b1c9-9234928a6fa6/ey-couple-walking-under-umbrella-on-city-street.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2700 2700w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--c283023c-98b8-4843-b1c9-9234928a6fa6/ey-couple-walking-under-umbrella-on-city-street.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3000 3000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--c283023c-98b8-4843-b1c9-9234928a6fa6/ey-couple-walking-under-umbrella-on-city-street.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3300 3300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--c283023c-98b8-4843-b1c9-9234928a6fa6/ey-couple-walking-under-umbrella-on-city-street.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3600 3600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--c283023c-98b8-4843-b1c9-9234928a6fa6/ey-couple-walking-under-umbrella-on-city-street.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3840 3840w" loading="lazy" class="cmp-image__image" itemprop="contentUrl" width="3840" height="2560" alt="Couple walking under umbrella on city street" title="Couple walking under umbrella on city street"/> <meta itemprop="caption" content="Couple walking under umbrella on city street"/> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__gradient"></div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__number-container"> <span class="up-chapter-breaker__number">5</span> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content-grid"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content"> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__label"> Chapter 5 </p> <h2 class="up-chapter-breaker__title">How CEOs can make their strategies geopolitically robust</h2> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__subtitle">CEOs and boards should take three steps to integrate scenario planning into their company strategy.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--12 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0 aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--mobile--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--tablet-landscape--none aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-landscape--0 aem-GridColumn--mobile--12"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-17daba19fc":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-11-27T08:16:24Z","xdm:text":"<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Any of the four above scenarios are plausible in the medium term, which complicates strategic planning. CEOs need to build more agility into their operations and strategy now, to be ready for whichever way globalization evolves. CEOs and boards should use scenario planning to update their company strategy. There are three steps to implementing such a geostrategy:<br>\r\n</span></p>\r\n<h4><span class=\"copy-block\">1.&nbsp;Enhance your understanding of the geopolitical environment</span></h4>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">CEOs and boards should continue to monitor political risks and other megatrends for opportunities and challenges. They also need to watch geopolitics for signs of what the future of globalization will be. CEOs should proactively scan for these early warning indicators – and quickly shift their strategies accordingly. Various key events and trends in the coming years may indicate which scenario is emerging, including:<br>\r\n</span></p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Outcomes of elections and leadership transitions in key countries</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Shifts in foreign policy rhetoric or actions, particularly among G20 members</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">The introduction or removal of tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Degrees to which regional trade agreements are introduced or expanded</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Changes in the level of military spending and severity of military conflicts</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Shifts in global energy and food prices</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">Levels of fragmentation in global technology standards</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4><span class=\"copy-block\">2. Ask ten key questions</span></h4>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">CEOs, boards and strategy teams need to assess the business implications of each scenario now to prepare for divergent scenarios in the next five years. They should conduct both a bottom-up assessment at the business unit and functional level and a top-down assessment at the corporate level. We see ten key strategic questions that CEOs should ask themselves and their teams:<br>\r\n</span></p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">How would our business model be impacted?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">What would be our future corporate structure and how might the portfolio be reshaped?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">How would capital allocation priorities and the capital structure shift?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">How would changes in customer or consumer demand affect revenue growth?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">How would our M&amp;A strategy be affected?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">How would operational and supplier footprints be affected?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">To what extent would cross-border sharing of technology, customer data and other IP be curtailed?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">To what extent would talent shortages exist?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">How would access to capital be affected?</span></li>\r\n<li><span class=\"copy-block\">How extensive and complex would the sanctions or tariffs be that restrict relationships&nbsp;with individual countries or allied blocs?<br>\r\n &nbsp;</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4><span class=\"copy-block\">3.&nbsp;Transform strategy to reflect a changing world</span></h4>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">Once CEOs have the answers to the questions above, they need to change strategy – taking actions today to enable their company to mitigate the challenges and seize the opportunities that each scenario presents in the coming years.</span></p>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">In some cases, companies may need to transform supply chains to match evolving geopolitical realities. Other companies may need to better incorporate political risk into their acquisition and divestment strategies. And some companies may need to change their entire business model to position themselves for growth in an uncertain geopolitical environment. Companies should prioritize and immediately implement the strategic actions that would build the most agility and robustness across all four scenarios.</span><br>\r\n</p>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-17daba19fcaf" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <p><span class="copy-block">Any of the four above scenarios are plausible in the medium term, which complicates strategic planning. CEOs need to build more agility into their operations and strategy now, to be ready for whichever way globalization evolves. CEOs and boards should use scenario planning to update their company strategy. There are three steps to implementing such a geostrategy:<br /> </span></p> <h4><span class="copy-block">1. Enhance your understanding of the geopolitical environment</span></h4> <p><span class="copy-block">CEOs and boards should continue to monitor political risks and other megatrends for opportunities and challenges. They also need to watch geopolitics for signs of what the future of globalization will be. CEOs should proactively scan for these early warning indicators – and quickly shift their strategies accordingly. Various key events and trends in the coming years may indicate which scenario is emerging, including:<br /> </span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">Outcomes of elections and leadership transitions in key countries</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Shifts in foreign policy rhetoric or actions, particularly among G20 members</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">The introduction or removal of tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Degrees to which regional trade agreements are introduced or expanded</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Changes in the level of military spending and severity of military conflicts</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Shifts in global energy and food prices</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">Levels of fragmentation in global technology standards</span></li></ul> <h4><span class="copy-block">2. Ask ten key questions</span></h4> <p><span class="copy-block">CEOs, boards and strategy teams need to assess the business implications of each scenario now to prepare for divergent scenarios in the next five years. They should conduct both a bottom-up assessment at the business unit and functional level and a top-down assessment at the corporate level. We see ten key strategic questions that CEOs should ask themselves and their teams:<br /> </span></p> <ul><li><span class="copy-block">How would our business model be impacted?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">What would be our future corporate structure and how might the portfolio be reshaped?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">How would capital allocation priorities and the capital structure shift?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">How would changes in customer or consumer demand affect revenue growth?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">How would our M&A strategy be affected?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">How would operational and supplier footprints be affected?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">To what extent would cross-border sharing of technology, customer data and other IP be curtailed?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">To what extent would talent shortages exist?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">How would access to capital be affected?</span></li><li><span class="copy-block">How extensive and complex would the sanctions or tariffs be that restrict relationships with individual countries or allied blocs?<br /> </span></li></ul> <h4><span class="copy-block">3. Transform strategy to reflect a changing world</span></h4> <p><span class="copy-block">Once CEOs have the answers to the questions above, they need to change strategy – taking actions today to enable their company to mitigate the challenges and seize the opportunities that each scenario presents in the coming years.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">In some cases, companies may need to transform supply chains to match evolving geopolitical realities. Other companies may need to better incorporate political risk into their acquisition and divestment strategies. And some companies may need to change their entire business model to position themselves for growth in an uncertain geopolitical environment. Companies should prioritize and immediately implement the strategic actions that would build the most agility and robustness across all four scenarios.</span><br /> </p> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> <div class="container responsivegrid cmp-container--component-e2e aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="chapter3" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="chapter-breaker aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div 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1800w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--68452c55-9bec-4726-8055-93dace8eb61d/ey-low-angle-view-of-putra-bridge.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2000 2000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--68452c55-9bec-4726-8055-93dace8eb61d/ey-low-angle-view-of-putra-bridge.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2400 2400w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--68452c55-9bec-4726-8055-93dace8eb61d/ey-low-angle-view-of-putra-bridge.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=2700 2700w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--68452c55-9bec-4726-8055-93dace8eb61d/ey-low-angle-view-of-putra-bridge.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3000 3000w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--68452c55-9bec-4726-8055-93dace8eb61d/ey-low-angle-view-of-putra-bridge.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3300 3300w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--68452c55-9bec-4726-8055-93dace8eb61d/ey-low-angle-view-of-putra-bridge.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3600 3600w,/adobe/dynamicmedia/deliver/dm-aid--68452c55-9bec-4726-8055-93dace8eb61d/ey-low-angle-view-of-putra-bridge.jpg?preferwebp=true&quality=85&width=3840 3840w" loading="lazy" class="cmp-image__image" itemprop="contentUrl" width="3840" height="2560" alt="Low angle view of Putra Bridge" title="Low angle view of Putra Bridge"/> <meta itemprop="caption" content="Low angle view of Putra Bridge"/> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__gradient"></div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__number-container"> <span class="up-chapter-breaker__number">6</span> </div> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content-grid"> <div class="up-chapter-breaker__content"> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__label"> Chapter 6 </p> <h2 class="up-chapter-breaker__title">The role of companies in shaping the future of globalization</h2> <p class="up-chapter-breaker__subtitle">CEOs have a crucial role as advocates for the most optimistic of our scenarios, Globalization lite.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="nested-tile aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--newline aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--mobile--newline aem-GridColumn--mobile--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0"><div class="content"> <div class="height-control"></div> <div class="nestedTileSec nestedTile-parsys rightAlign small"> <div id="nested-tile-container-561227b301" class="cmp-container"> <div class="link-area"> <div class="cmp-link-area cmp-link-area--regular " data-analytics-category="Link Area"> <p class="cmp-link-area__header"> How EY-Parthenon can help </p> <div> <ul class="cmp-link-area__regular cmp-link-area__regular-one-item "> <li class="cmp-link-area__item "> <div class="cmp-link-area__wrapper"> <p class="cmp-link-area__item--title"> <a data-analytics-link-click data-analytics-event-label="linkAreaHeader-EY-Parthenon-How EY-Parthenon can Help" data-analytics-action-value="Supply Chain Transformation" href="/en_gl/services/consulting/supply-chain-transformation"> Supply Chain Transformation </a> </p> </div> <p class="cmp-link-area__item__paragraph">Discover how EY's Supply Chain Transformation solution can help your business move towards fully autonomous, connected supply chains that drive business growth.</p> <a class="cmp-link-area__item__readmore" href="/en_gl/services/consulting/supply-chain-transformation"> Read more </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="richText-content cmp-text nested-tile--georgia-font"> <p><span class="copy-block">Globalization in the past few decades has brought extraordinary benefits to people across the world. In emerging markets, trade has helped lift billions out of poverty and enabled access to innovative goods and services. In developed markets, standards of living have continued to rise, and the range of goods and services has expanded. Citizens across the world have become more connected by shared ideas, international supply chains, global employers and travel.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block"> </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">There have also been significant downsides. Environmental damage has occurred, particularly where regulation is weak. Labor standards have not been upheld universally. And inequality has grown dramatically within countries when the benefits of globalization are not shared widely. Many governments are now taking action to address these, and other, downsides. And rightly so: globalization must work for all.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block"> </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">However, as our scenarios illustrate, the world is not just turning its back on the disadvantages of globalization. It is becoming increasingly clear, particularly as geopolitical tensions mount, that it is also turning its back on its advantages. This creates significant challenges for international companies. But, more important, the current trajectory of geopolitical relations and economic policy stances now threatens global peace and prosperity.</span></p> <p><span class="copy-block"> </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">CEOs and other international business leaders have a crucial role as advocates for the most optimistic of our scenarios, Globalization lite. Companies should continue to develop and leverage relationships with all stakeholders – including policymakers, investors, employees, customers and others – to support policies that spread the benefits of globalization more widely and promote sustainability and long-term value around the world. </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block"> </span></p> <p><span class="copy-block">Environmental and labor standards should be strong, supply chains need to be resilient to shocks, economic gains should be widely shared, and national security must be protected. But a slide toward protectionism, self-reliance and economic (or even military) conflict will challenge the attainment of all these goals. The open movement of goods, capital, ideas and people across borders makes the world a more harmonious and prosperous place. CEOs should advocate for Globalization lite – a better working world than the one in which they operate today.</span></p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="separator aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="cmp-separator"> <hr class="cmp-separator__horizontal-rule"/> </div></div> <div class="container responsivegrid theme-dual-dark cmp-container--theme-dark-accented aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="container-662ad2bdde" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="subscribe aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"><div id="subscribe-e3d2124f170e" class="cmp-subscribe" data-analytics-category="Subscribe"> <div class="cmp-subscribe__content"> <div class="cmp-subscribe__text"> <p class="cmp-subscribe__title" data-analytics-label>Geostrategic Analysis</p> <p class="cmp-subscribe__subtitle">Register for the Editor’s Picks newsletter to receive the monthly Geostrategic Analysis and other transformative insights from EY and EY-Parthenon.</p> </div> <div class="cmp-subscribe__button"> <div class="button"> <a id="button-e56fe23ff2d6" class="up-button cmp-button " href="/en_gl/functional/forms/form-snippets/subscription/ey-geostrategic-analysis" data-cmp-clickable data-up-is="button" data-cmp-data-layer="{"button-e56fe23ff2":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/button","repo:modifyDate":"2024-05-21T10:20:00Z","dc:title":"Subscribe now","xdm:linkURL":"/en_gl/functional/forms/form-snippets/subscription/ey-geostrategic-analysis"}}" data-analytics-category="Button" data-button-type="cta" data-snippet-url="/content/ey-unified-site/ey-com/global/main/en_gl/home/functional/forms/form-snippets/subscription/ey-geostrategic-analysis.html" data-analytics-label="CTA Button" analytics-button-type="cta" data-analytics-button-click> <span class="cmp-button__text" data-analytics-action-value>Subscribe now</span> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="separator aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="cmp-separator"> <hr class="cmp-separator__horizontal-rule"/> </div></div> <div class="rich-text text aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--newline aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn--tablet-portrait--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--tablet-portrait--0 aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--8 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--2 aem-GridColumn--mobile--newline aem-GridColumn--mobile--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--mobile--0"><div data-cmp-data-layer="{"rich-text-97e061adc2":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/rich-text","repo:modifyDate":"2024-03-18T09:41:48Z","xdm:text":"<h4><span class=\"copy-block\">Summary</span></h4>\r\n<p><span class=\"copy-block\">CEOs and boards need to prepare now for the future of globalization. Managing the uncertainty over how geopolitics will evolve in the medium term is a challenge. But CEOs and boards cannot wait for clarity before setting their future strategy. Rather, they need to act now to make strategic decisions that position their company to flourish during the turbulent times ahead.</span></p>\r\n"}}" id="rich-text-97e061adc291" data-up-is="rich-text" data-up-translation-read-more="Read More" data-up-translation-read-less="Read Less" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-more="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" data-up-translation-aria-label-read-less="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content" class="up-rich-text cmp-text" data-up-analytics="rich-text"> <div class="up-rich-text__container" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContainer"> <div class="up-rich-text__container-content" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextContent"> <h4><span class="copy-block">Summary</span></h4> <p><span class="copy-block">CEOs and boards need to prepare now for the future of globalization. Managing the uncertainty over how geopolitics will evolve in the medium term is a challenge. But CEOs and boards cannot wait for clarity before setting their future strategy. Rather, they need to act now to make strategic decisions that position their company to flourish during the turbulent times ahead.</span></p> </div> </div> <button class="rich-text__read-more-btn rich-text__button--hidden" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadMoreButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read more button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read More </button> <button class="rich-text__read-less-btn" data-up-hook-rich-text="richTextReadLessButton" aria-hidden="true" aria-label="Read less button, press enter to activate, or use Up arrow key to learn more about this content"> Read Less </button> </div> </div> <div class="separator aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="cmp-separator"> <hr class="cmp-separator__horizontal-rule"/> </div></div> <div class="container responsivegrid theme-pale-grey cmp-container--theme-mid-grey cmp-container--background-color-e2e aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="container-232e0fadc3" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="upPromotionalBanner component up-promotional-banner--left-align up-promotional-banner--stack-items-reverse aem-GridColumn--default--none aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12 aem-GridColumn--offset--default--0"> <div id="promotional-204148d676a4" class="up-promotional-banner up-promotional-banner--media" data-up-is="promotional-banner" data-analytics-category="Promotional Banner"> <div class="up-promotional-banner__content"> <p class="up-promotional-banner__content-heading" role="heading" aria-level="1" data-analytics-label> Watch: CEO of Discovery Limited on balancing innovation with capital strength </p> <div class="up-promotional-banner__content-description" data-analytics-text-click> <p>“A business works with deep conviction, great people, and the right capital base.” Learn from CEO Adrian Gore on how to grow.</p> </div> </div> <div class="up-promotional-banner__media"> <div data-up-show-captions="false" data-up-is="video" data-up-analytics="video" data-up-player-id="K9vmDUUZC" data-up-account-id="1066292269001" data-up-main-video-id="6332415096112" id="video-f316797ca199" class="up-video"> <video-js class="up-video__video" id="6338770651112" data-up-hook-video="videojs" controls data-embed="default"> </video-js> <div class="up-video__video-title" data-up-hook-video="videoTitle"></div> <script src="https://players.brightcove.net/1066292269001/K9vmDUUZC_default/index.min.js"></script> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="upContentGrid component aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"><div> <div class="up-content-grid up-content-grid--default" id="up-content-grid-2218e56d8d" data-up-is="content-grid" data-up-analytics="content-grid" data-up-total-item-count="3"> <p class="up-content-grid__title">Related articles</p> <div class="up-content-grid__list" data-up-hook-content-grid="list"> <div class="up-content-grid__list-item " data-up-hook-content-grid="[listItem]"> <a class="up-content-grid__list-item-image-link" aria-hidden="true" href="/en_gl/ceo/ceo-outlook-global-report" tabindex="-1"> <img class="up-content-grid__list-item-image" src="/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/campaigns/ceo/images/ey-aerial-view-of-boat-crossing-aquaduct-in-the-netherlands-static-no-zoom.jpg" srcset="/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/campaigns/ceo/images/ey-aerial-view-of-boat-crossing-aquaduct-in-the-netherlands-static-no-zoom.jpg.transform/up-img-width-small-screen/img.jpg 1x,/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/campaigns/ceo/images/ey-aerial-view-of-boat-crossing-aquaduct-in-the-netherlands-static-no-zoom.jpg.transform/up-img-width-large-screen/img.jpg 2x,/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-gl/campaigns/ceo/images/ey-aerial-view-of-boat-crossing-aquaduct-in-the-netherlands-static-no-zoom.jpg.transform/up-img-width-xlarge-screen/img.jpg 3x" alt="Aerial view of boat crossing aquaduct in the Netherlands"/> </a> <div class="up-content-grid__list-item-details"> <p class="up-content-grid__list-item-title"> <a class="up-content-grid__list-item-title-link" href="/en_gl/ceo/ceo-outlook-global-report">How can a strategic transformation mindset unlock long-term value?</a> </p> <p class="up-content-grid__list-item-description"> Confident CEOs embrace corporate transformation mindset, using M&A and technology to navigate challenges and create long-term value. 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</div> <div class="container responsivegrid theme-dark cmp-container--theme-dark cmp-container--background-color-e2e aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div id="container-f588e838f7" class="cmp-container"> <div class="aem-Grid aem-Grid--12 aem-Grid--default--12 "> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors aem-GridColumn aem-GridColumn--default--12"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors up-authors-and-contributors--article-bottombar " data-up-analytics="authors-and-contributors" data-up-is="authors-and-contributors"> <p class="up-authors-and-contributors__title">About this article</p> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__content"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__authors-and-contributors-container"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__authors-container"> <p class="up-authors-and-contributors__authors-title"> Authors </p> <ul class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-links"> <li class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-container"> <a 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Geostrategy Insights Leader; Director, Business and CXO Insights, Ernst & Young LLP </div> </li> <li class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-container"> <a class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link up-authors-and-contributors__analytics-author-link" aria-label="Famke Krumbmüller" href="/en_gl/people/famke-krumbmuller"> <figure class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-link-content"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-name-container"> Famke Krumbmüller </div> </figure> </a> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__author-title"> EY-Parthenon EMEIA Leader, Geostrategic Business Group </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__tags-and-social-container"> <div class="up-authors-and-contributors__article-tags-container"> <div class="related-topics surfaceTags"> <div data-cmp-data-layer="{"surfaceTags-ff4f57d126":{"@type":"ey-unified-site/components/surfaceTags"}}" data-analytics-category="Surface Tags" class="up-surface-tags"> <span 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