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<!--------head结束----------><style> img{max-width:650px} </style> <!--------head结束----------> <div id="main"> <!--------内容开始----------> <div class="column"> <div class="column_l"> <div class="det"> <div class="det_title"> <ul> <li class="det_title_name">美国大选定局!中国空调北美出口面临何种变数</li> <!-- <li class="det_title_from">来源:<span>新华社</span></li> --> <li class="det_title_from">&nbsp;&nbsp;来源:<span>制冷快报</span></li> <li class="det_title_time">2024-11-14</li> </ul> </div> <div class="det_title_fenxiang"> <div class="fenxiang"> <!-- JiaThis Button BEGIN --> <div class="jiathis_style_32x32"> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_cqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a href="http://www.jiathis.com/share" class="jiathis jiathis_txt jiathis_separator jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> <a class="jiathis_counter_style"></a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" > var jiathis_config={ summary:"", shortUrl:false, hideMore:false } </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code/jia.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <!-- JiaThis Button END --> </div> <div class="huifu"></div> </div> <div class="mess_text"> <div class="content" id="article"><div>美国大选作为全球瞩目的政治事件,不仅对其国内社会经济影响深远,也对全球经济格局,尤其是中国出口市场带来重大挑战与机遇。中国作为全球最大的空调及压缩机生产国,在海外制造市场占据重要地位,特朗普上届执政期间,其贸易政策对相关产业出口造成了显著影响。</div> <div>产业在线数据显示,中国家用空调出口市场的洲别分布近年来发生了很大变化。其中,北美洲市场份额总体呈持续下降趋势,至2024年9月,对北美洲的出口占比已跌破了10%。</div> <div>因此,本次美国大选结果揭晓也引发了业界对未来政策走向的广泛关注。特朗普再次上台后,中国空调及压缩机出口将如何应对新的政策环境?我们先从当前空调北美出口的现状说起。</div> <div>中国对美出口去库存周期基本结束</div> <div>2024年以来,中国经济呈现出&ldquo;内冷外热&rdquo;的特点。家用空调行业也不例外,外需成为推动行业增长的主要动力。据产业在线统计,截至2024年9月家用空调行业规模基本与去年同期持平。内销旺季不旺,出口市场则是持续高增,表现一直超出预期。空调企业在此背景下纷纷转战外销市场。</div> <div>从区域来看,北美家电市场整体从筑底阶段转向去库阶段。其中,从2024年1-9月中国出口北美同比趋势来看,美国去库存周期基本磨底结束,进入主动补库阶段的迹象较为明显。短期来看,北美市场空调补库预期推动会较为顺利。</div> <div>长远来看,外需和出口链能否维持韧性是关乎未来家用空调增长的关键,也将直接决定市场期待的增量刺激政策是否紧迫。而美国大选结果与出口直接相关,直接决定贸易壁垒是否会大幅升级以及出口市场是否能保持韧性。</div> <div>川普上台会有哪些影响</div> <div>对中国市场而言,美国大选的影响除了体现在情绪上,最为直接的就是贸易与产业政策。此次大选结果基本确定,特朗普即将上台,他所主张的政策也势必会影响全球市场的发展,其中,对华进行60%全面关税将对我国出口经济产生直接影响。</div> <div>关税冲击,成本上涨:特朗普的关税政策无疑将对中国出口造成直接冲击。高额关税的施加,势必推高中国产品在美国市场的售价,进而削弱其在激烈市场竞争中的优势地位。据产业在线监测,在过去的五年间,中国空调产业从上游压缩机到整机出口北美洲的单价均呈现波动上涨趋势。</div> <div>这就意味着,随着关税政策的进一步收紧,空调产业无论是整机还是压缩机,通过直接出口方式进入美国市场的成本都将不可避免地大幅上涨。这无疑给中国空调制造商带来了前所未有的挑战,迫使其必须寻找新的市场机遇或优化成本结构,以应对这一严峻的市场变化。</div> <div>贸易限制,布局受阻:特朗普还可能会采取其他贸易限制措施,特别是加强对中国企业在美国市场投资和技术合作的限制,这些举措将对中国空调产业在美国市场的现有布局与未来发展造成直接冲击和阻碍。这些限制不仅可能削弱中国企业在美市场的竞争力,还可能打断其在当地的供应链布局和技术创新步伐,进而对整体行业的在美业务拓展和市场地位产生影响。</div> <div>金融市场波动:特朗普政策方面的不确定性可能导致全球金融市场波动,包括中国股市和汇率。这将对中国投资者和企业带来一定的风险和挑战。然而,从另一方面来看,特朗普的减税政策和放松监管措施也可能刺激美国经济增长和就业市场改善,从而为中国空调及压缩机出口提供一定的市场机遇。</div> <div>中国企业如何应对</div> <div>灵活补库,抓住短期机遇:短期来看,在上述贸易政策尚未明确落地实施之前,中国出口市场或将出现一波因库存补充需求而驱动的增长浪潮。在此背景下,出口企业可灵活调整自身的补库周期,以精准捕捉这一难得的市场缓冲期带来的战略调整机遇。然而,一旦这些政策尘埃落定,出口企业必然会面临成本上升,出口规模回落等挑战。</div> <div>加强自主创新:面对潜在的挑战,中国企业可加大研发投入,提升产品技术含量和附加值,以应对特朗普政府的关税壁垒和技术限制。通过自主创新,中国企业可以开发出更具竞争力的产品,提高在美国市场的品牌影响力和市场份额。</div> <div>优化出口结构:除北美市场外,中国企业还应积极开拓其他海外市场,减少对美国市场的依赖。通过在其他新兴市场的多元化布局,中国企业可以分散风险,降低特朗普政策不确定性带来的冲击。</div> <div>加速海外布局:中国企业还可以通过加强与其他国家和地区的合作,加速向海外转移产能,共同应对特朗普的贸易保护主义政策。通过在海外地区如泰国、印尼、巴西等地建厂,中国企业可以获取更多的市场机遇,提升在全球市场的竞争力。</div> <div>总而言之,美国大选已尘埃落定,特朗普上台必然会使得中国空调及压缩机企业出口面临更多挑战与机遇。短期内,出口或受补库推动实现增长,但后续政策具体落地时间、实施方式等方面的影响仍充满不确定性,还需企业通过加强自主创新、优化出口结构、加速海外布局等策略,在复杂的市场变化中寻找新机遇,实现稳健发展。</div></div> </div> <div class="xw_line"> </div> <div class="mess_footnote"> <ul> <li></li> <li></li> </ul> </div> <div class="fenxiang"> <!-- JiaThis Button BEGIN --> <div class="jiathis_style_32x32"> <a class="jiathis_button_weixin"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tsina"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_cqq"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_qzone"></a> <a href="http://www.jiathis.com/share" class="jiathis jiathis_txt jiathis_separator jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank"></a> <a class="jiathis_counter_style"></a> 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