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id="wrap"> <div id="header"><h1><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/">Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment</a></h1></div> <div class="hr"></div> <div class="hr2"></div><div class="left"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Authors</h2> <ul> <li class="widget widget_authors"> <ul><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?author=4" title="Posts by Bill Butz">Bill Butz</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?author=6" title="Posts by Carl Haub">Carl Haub</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?author=11" title="Posts by Charlie Teller">Charlie Teller</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?author=10" title="Posts by ezuehlke">ezuehlke</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?author=12" title="Posts by Mark 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</form> </div> <div style="clear: both;"></div> </li> <li id="text-1" class="widget widget_text"> <h2 class="widgettitle">About the PRB Blog</h2> <div class="textwidget"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?page_id=2">The PRB blog is....</a> </div> </li> <li id="recent-comments" class="widget widget_recent_comments"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Recent Comments</h2> <ul id="recentcomments"><li class="recentcomments">Carl Haub on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?p=22#comment-24">In Defense of Paul Ehrlich</a></li><li class="recentcomments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://demography.ru/" rel="external nofollow">Boris Denisov</a> on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?p=22#comment-23">In Defense of Paul Ehrlich</a></li></ul> </li> <li id="links" class="widget widget_links"><h2 class="widgettitle">Blogroll</h2> <ul> <li><a 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<p>What! Someone is <em>defending</em> Paul Ehrlich? Paul Ehrlich, the famous author of the 1968 <em>Population Bomb</em>, has often taken it on the chin for his infamous “predictions.” His statement in the <em>Population Bomb </em>“The battle to feed all of humanity is over” has probably landed him in the most hot water. While that battle has not been lost, neither has it been won even to this day.</p> <p>Ehrlich’s Cassandra-like statements have caused him considerable grief – but consider them as products of the time in which they were made. The population of the world’s developing countries (Africa, Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania) was growing at a startling 2.5 percent per year. Our old friend “doubling time” tells us that that rate would cause their population, 2.6 billion at the time, to double every 28 years - 2.6 billion in 1968, 5.2 billion in 1996, 7.0 billion today, 10.4 billion in 2024, and so on. In 1968, women averaged six children per woman; family planning was virtually unknown; and death rates were likely to continue downward thanks to immunization programs and spreading public health measures so the growth might even increase.</p> <p>It had taken world population until about 1800 to reach its first billion and 130 to reach the second. Four billion would come just six years after Ehrlich had written his book and the fifth billion just 13 years further on. The unprecedented growth was a result of a very rapid 20th century decline in death rates in developing countries, something that had taken the developed countries many centuries to achieve. That growth came as a real surprise. </p> <p>If you are going to sound a warning, a clarion call, sound it LOUDLY. Ehrlich (whose name means “honest” in German) pulled no punches. If he had said something like “There is a possibility that increased hunger and starvation might manifest itself should the population growth rate in developing countries not ameliorate,” no one would have listened. Nor would he be much criticized or remembered today. If you’re going to say “Fire!” don’t whisper. It’s worth noting that Ehrlich’s original title for the book was “Population, Resources, and the Environment.” It was the publisher who gave it the “Population Bomb” title.</p> <p>To be sure, Ehrlich was hardly the first to sound the alarm. News magazines, such as U.S. News and World Report, far more influential then than now, had run stories on the population problem. In 1963, the magazine reported that President Kennedy had agreed to offer birth control information to “other nations.” It makes no sense that Ehrlich is now criticized as being alarmist because his dire warnings did not, in the main, come true. But it was <em>because</em> of such warnings from Ehrlich and others that countries took action to avoid potential disaster.The edition of the <em>Bomb</em> I picked up in a used book sale at Georgetown University in 1974 was in its 32nd printing. Someone must have been getting the message. Nice going, Paul.<o:p></o:p></p> <br/> <p> <small> <span> You can follow any responses to this entry through the</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?feed=rss2&p=22">RSS 2.0</a> <span>feed.</span> <span>You can </span><a href="#respond">leave a response</a>, <span>or</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/wp-trackback.php?p=22" rel="trackback">trackback</a> <span>from your own site.</span> </span></small> </p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=22&title=In Defense of Paul Ehrlich" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div>  <div class="comments"><h3>2 Responses to “In Defense of Paul Ehrlich”</h3></div> <ol class="commentlist"> <li class="alt" id="comment-23"> <div class="gcomment"><cite><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://demography.ru/" rel="external nofollow">Boris Denisov</a></cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-23" title="">November 7th, 2008 at 5:43 am</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>Sorry for possible offtopic, but</p> <p>I was unable to find an annual number of deaths just a CDR –</p> <p>the result is probably the same but interesting in a number</p> <p>could you help ?</p> </div> </li> <li id="comment-24"> <div class="gcomment"><cite>Carl Haub</cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-24" title="">November 10th, 2008 at 2:30 pm</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>Boris,</p> <p>Be happy to help. Which deaths do you mean? Worldwide? Is there a particular time or date?</p> <p>Carl</p> </div> </li> </ol> <div class="comments"><h3>Leave a Reply</h3></div> <form action="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/wp-comments-post.php" method="post" id="commentform"> <p><input type="text" name="author" id="author" value="" size="22" tabindex="1"/> <label for="author"><small>Name (required)</small></label></p> <p><input type="text" name="email" id="email" value="" size="22" tabindex="2"/> <label for="email"><small>Mail (will not be published) (required)</small></label></p> <p><input type="text" name="url" id="url" value="" size="22" tabindex="3"/> <label for="url"><small>Website</small></label></p>  <p><textarea name="comment" id="comment" cols="60%" rows="10" tabindex="4"></textarea></p> <p><input name="submit" type="submit" id="submit" tabindex="5" value="Submit Comment"/> <input type="hidden" name="comment_post_ID" value="22"/> </p> </form> <div class="alignleft">« <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?p=20">The Migration Challenge</a></div> <div class="alignright"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://prbblog.org/?p=23">A Census Beyond National Borders?</a> »</div> </div> </td></tr></table></center>  <br/><br/> <div align="center"> <div align="center" id="ftr"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer2.gif" width="3" height="23" align="right"/><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer1.gif" width="3" height="23" align="left"/><span class="footertext">Services: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.prb.org/Home/EmailSignup.aspx">Get E-Mail News</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.prb.org/Join.aspx">Join/Renew Membership</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.prb.org/Donate.aspx">Donate</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.prb.org/Bookstore.aspx">Bookstore</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.prb.org/Home/Contact.aspx">Contact</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.prb.org/SpanishContent.aspx">Español</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.prb.org/FrenchContent.aspx">Français</a></span></div> <span class="footer2text"><b>Copyright 2007, Population Reference Bureau.</b> All rights reserved. • <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/http://www.prb.org/Home/Privacy.aspx">Privacy Policy</a></span><br/> <span class="footer2text">1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW • Suite 520 • Washington, DC 20009-5728 • USA <br/> <b>Phone:</b> 800-877-9881 • <b>Fax:</b> 202-328-3937 • <b>E-mail:</b> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126213959/mailto:popref@prb.org">popref@prb.org</a></span><br/> </div>  </div> </body> </html>