宝城期货：铁矿石需求出现改善-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>价格指数最新值为104.40美元/吨。铁矿石期现货价格均回升至震荡平台上沿。</p> <p><strong>估值升至偏高水平</strong></p> <p>本轮铁矿石价格上行受多重利多因素推动。第一，商品市场情绪回暖。美国经济数据改善使得美联储降息预期升温，同时国内稳汇率、稳预期提振了市场情绪。节前成材产业矛盾不大，乐观情绪支撑下黑色金属价格一度集体上行。第二，钢厂补库使<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石需求</a>放量，直接体现就是1月港口疏港量维持高位。与往年类似，临近春节钢厂会主动增加原材料库存，而今年<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/datas/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石库存</a>增幅最为明显。节前钢联247家样本钢厂铁矿石库存总量为10846.32万吨，1月增幅超1200万吨，与去年农历同期相当。第三，供应有所收缩。一方面，天气因素影响下海外<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-5735,3970-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石供应</a>减量，其中澳矿因飓风扰动减量最大，全球19港铁矿石周度发运量最低降至2229.40万吨，为近两年最低值，1月累计发运量环比大幅降低1510万吨，且低于去年同期水平。另一方面，春节假期前后国内矿山生产季节性走弱。第四，产业链套利资金驱动。因双焦供需格局相对宽松，且钢厂补库力度不强，产业矛盾较为明显，对冲逻辑下资金多进行空煤焦、多钢矿操作，且铁矿石价格弹性较大，更受青睐，价格走势相对偏强。</p> <p>当前铁矿石经历强势上涨后估值已升至高位，主力合约期价重回震荡平台上沿，折合美元报价已逼近去年10月份高位水平，铁矿石价格指数也回升至100美元/吨上方。铁矿石主力合约期价与<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>主力合约期价的比值不断创阶段性新高，最新值分别为0.241、0.468，为2021年以来新高。</p> <p><strong>供需格局改善有限</strong></p> <p>铁矿石估值已升至高位，后续上行需要产业逻辑配合，但当前<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石基本面</a>并未出现实质性改善，直接体现为库存迟迟未见去化。节前库存水平显著高于去年同期，近期钢厂补库使厂内铁矿石库存增加，但港口库存并未去化，全产业链仍呈现累库态势，高库存格局延续。</p> <p>当前<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石供需</a>两端均有所变化。节后钢厂生产逐渐恢复，铁矿石消耗量低位回升，节后首周247家样本钢厂日均<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>和<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>进口矿</a>日耗分别为228.44万吨、285.17万吨，较节前分别增长2.99万吨、4.15万吨，增长趋势已延续三周。此外，春节假期期间钢厂厂内铁矿石库存大幅下降，节后存在补库预期。但近年来钢厂沿用低库存策略，预计补库力度有限。</p> <p>整体看，节后铁矿石需求会出现改善，继续给矿价提供支撑，但考虑到下游钢材需求恢复有时滞性，需求改善空间待观察。需要注意的是，铁矿石供应恢复迅速，节后国内港口铁矿石到货量虽高位回落，但多因前期矿石发运量偏低所致，目前短期扰动因素已消退，海外矿商发运快速回补，全球19港发运量大幅回升。随着海外铁矿石供应的迅速恢复，前期因供应收缩带来的基本面改善局面已发生改变。</p> <p>综上，钢厂复产叠加节后补库，短期铁矿石需求出现改善，给予矿价强支撑，但铁矿石估值相对偏高，且供应快速恢复，基本面并未出现实质性好转，高库存局面未变，矿价上行驱动有所趋弱。预计铁矿石价格将维持高位震荡态势。（作者单位：宝城期货）</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title 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