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百年建筑:2023河南加气混凝土市场回顾与展望-百年建筑网
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class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="10552" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/e6295188b32c45ff88373efa6ecbb382.png" alt="" width="600" height="133.33333333333331" /></p> <p>近年来,随着绿色装配式建材的推进,河南地区蒸压加气<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1002-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>混凝土</a>的关注度越来越高,生产厂家和外来厂家逐步增多。接下来我们将从房地产需求端、河南行业热点、河南加气混凝土市场回顾和成本分析、市场未来展望四个方面来看一下近年来河南加气混凝土的市场运行情况。</p> <p><strong>一、宏观:房地产需求端分析</strong></p> <p><strong>1、房地产基本面情况</strong></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/dfe226b16a7c43b283fce7543832662f.png" width="600" height="422" /></p> <p> </p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/8c9b33c4a73b45a9bb8b82e1ae07f366.png" width="600" height="422" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/4ad64cfc7ff3455487fece894d5f48af.png" width="600" height="439" /></p> <p>1-4月,房地产开发企业房屋施工面积771271万平方米,同比<span style="color: #00b050;">下降5.6%</span>。其中,住宅施工面积542968万平方米,<span style="color: #00b050;">下降5.9%</span>。房屋新开工面积31220万平方米,<span style="color: #00b050;">下降21.2%</span>。其中,住宅新开工面积22900万平方米,下<span style="color: #00b050;">降20.6%</span>。房屋竣工面积23678万平方米,<span style="color: #e10000;">增长18.8%</span>。其中,住宅竣工面积17396万平方米,<span style="color: #e10000;">增长19.2%</span>。地产销售面积增速出现单月走弱,4月同比<span style="color: #00b050;">下降11.8%</span>。</p> <p><strong>2、保交楼政策的开展</strong></p> <p>2022年7月28日,中共中央政治局会议首次提出“保交楼”工作任务,40多天时间里36地先后提出相关政策措施。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/64a20ed8876c452b9518eea3809b4b7a.png" width="600" height="397" /></p> <p>3-5月,百年建筑网组织调研全国各地1114个保交楼项目交付情况,数据显示3月份保交楼项目已交付比例为<span style="color: #e10000;">23%</span>,5月份保交楼已交付比例为<span style="color: #e10000;">34%</span>,<span style="color: #e10000;">上升11个百分点</span>。其中保交楼存量部分项目进度装饰装修占比50.4%,主体结构占比33.7%,封顶占比12.9%,土方及以前占比0.5%,烂尾占比2.5%。尤其是专项借款和配套融资支持政策落地,有助于加快“保交楼”进展。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/83974a3af19745d1b4480c28cd2c2644.png" width="600" height="596" /></p> <p>从“保交楼”已交付占比可知,3月保交楼中已交付251个,占比<span style="color: #e10000;">23%</span>;5月保交楼中已交付380个,占比<span style="color: #e10000;">34%</span>,“保交楼”交付占比逐步增大。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/f2a46159197b429aa55d94cfd2de9d98.png" width="600" height="595" /></p> <p><strong>分省份来看,</strong>河南是提出“保交楼”相关支持政策最多的省份,其中据郑州官方数据显示2022年9月6日至10月6日,郑州全市已排查出的147个已售停工、半停工商品住宅项目中,有145个项目实现全面、实质性复工。</p> <p>但截至5月18日,百年建筑网调研河南“保交楼”样本企业交付占比<span style="color: #e10000;">仅11%</span>。据供应商反馈,由于“新旧划断”,原先欠款的部分供应商没有拿到旧账,旧账得不到偿还情况下,原先合作的总包、分包单位无力垫资去做“保交楼”工程,大部分项目虽复工但实际恢复进度不不及预期。</p> <p><strong>二、行业热点:河南省相关政策</strong></p> <p>1、2022年3月11日,住房和城乡建设部印发《“十四五”建筑节能与绿色建筑发展规划》,规划提出,到2025年,完成既有建筑节能改造面积3.5亿平方米以上,建设超低能耗、近零能耗建筑0.5亿平方米以上,装配式建筑占当年城镇新建建筑的比例达到30%。</p> <p>2、2023年2月6日,中共中央、国务院印发《质量强国建设纲要》,将装配式建筑作为提升建设工程品质、打造“中国建造”升级版的重要内容。</p> <p>3、2021年08月10日,“三个一批”助力河南经济发展,“三个一批”即签约一批、开工一批、投产一批。河南2023年梳理1万个左右重大项目,完成投资超2万亿。</p> <p>4、2023年5月8日上午,河南省第八期“三个一批”项目建设活动举行。各省辖市、济源示范区、航空港区设分会场。据统计,此次“三个一批”项目建设活动,全省集中签约项目651个,总投资6011亿元;开工项目769个,总投资1.2万亿元;投产项目907个,总投资8072亿元。</p> <p>5、2023年3月1日,河南发改委印发“重点建设项目名单”,项目涉及创新驱动能力提升、基础设施建设、产业转型发展、绿色低碳转型、民生和社会事业改善等五大领域。2023年共安排省重点建设项目2505个,年度计划投资约1.9万亿元。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/c26cc4365cc542a5ac2fffc0096e1b37.png" width="600" height="684" /></p> <p>6、河南省住建厅:拟推荐济源交大科技园B地块住宅项目5#楼等2个超低能耗建筑项目,郑州泰宏阳光里、四季都会苑等14个装配式建筑项目列入2023年节能和资源循环利用专项资金支持计划。</p> <p><strong>三、河南加气混凝土市场回顾及成本分析</strong></p> <p><strong>1、河南地区加气混凝土市场行情回顾</strong></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/023ac3a071704f07989b76fa0c311dc1.png" width="600" height="434" /></p> <p>截止2023年5月23日,全国市场蒸压加气混凝土均价为<span style="color: #e10000;">274.55元/方</span>,河南市场蒸压加气混凝土均价为<span style="color: #e10000;">183.33元/方</span>,加气板材均价为<span style="color: #e10000;">436.47元/方</span>。</p> <p>近一年来全国均价高点出现于22年5月,价格为<span style="color: #e10000;">310元/方</span>,今年5月份全国均价为<span style="color: #e10000;">274.55元/方</span>,同比<span style="color: #00b050;">下降11.4%</span>。主要原因是近一年<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1010-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>加气块</a>原材料价格下降,供应量饱和,项目有限,需求量不足,价格难以推涨。</p> <p><strong>2、河南地区加气混凝土成本分析</strong></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/7a6e1d65555948538982d977f86e3a00.png" width="600" height="316" /></p> <p>据百年建筑数据显示,截至5月23日,百年建筑P.O42.5散装<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1001-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>水泥</a>均价为<span style="color: #e10000;">435元/吨</span>,同比<span style="color: #00b050;">下跌12.3%</span>,周环比<span style="color: #00b050;">下跌1.8%</span>。</p> <p>2023年5月23日,郑州P.O42.5散装<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1001-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>水泥价格</a>为<span style="color: #e10000;">415元/吨</span>,去年同期价格为520元/吨,同比<span style="color: #00b050;">下跌20.2 %</span>。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/d78f6bbf3b304007966ca25505de2723.png" width="600" height="403" /></p> <p>据百年建筑网数据显示,截至2023年5月19日,全国Ⅱ级粉煤灰市场均价为<span style="color: #e10000;">162.5元/吨</span>,<span style="color: #00b050;">周环比下跌2.1%</span>。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/f7fa534961ac4bf18d0f8aa5fd1036fc.png" width="600" height="85" /></p> <p> </p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/aafbc877cdd14ec399eea62ed880f902.png" width="600" height="398" /></p> <p>截止2023年5月22日,<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>我的钢铁网</a>郑州市场主流<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>报价在3530-3650元/吨,盘螺价格在3640-3800元/吨。</p> <p>截止4月底,郑州市场主流螺纹钢价格约为<span style="color: #e10000;">3850元/吨</span>,月环比<span style="color: #00b050;">下跌440元/吨<span style="color: #000000;">,年同比</span>下跌1320元/吨</span>左右。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/83bcce1c1dac42f39a70be553bc796fe.png" width="600" height="317" /></p> <p> </p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/9ecf711599de477a81cb75871ee3308d.png" width="600" height="488" /></p> <p>2023年5月16日24时油价调整最新消息,本轮油价下调,国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别下调380元和365元,目前2023全年累计汽油<span style="color: #00b050;">下调170元</span>/吨,柴油<span style="color: #00b050;">下调165元/吨</span>。</p> <p>主要是由于沙特与俄罗斯之间的原油贸易协议“破碎”,3月9日沙特单方面突然大幅度提产,降价向欧美地区“倾销”原油,导致原油价格下跌。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/ae2257810e3942cf94210ebf6c50f4a8.png" width="600" height="136" /></p> <p>总体上来看,对比去年五月同期,水泥、粉煤灰、钢材原材价格均处于下跌趋势,加气块及板材价格也处于下降趋势。</p> <p><strong>四、蒸压加气混凝土制品未来展望</strong></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/cb09afed368840ac8b6ac249e7a0a942.png" width="600" height="563" /></p> <p>今年一季度以来楼市成交量有所回暖,但房地产开发企业资金仍偏紧,开发投资额较前两个月呈现明显下降趋势。</p> <p>截止4月中旬,据样本调研显示,河南省内项目开工情况较差及一般比例高达<span style="color: #e10000;">81%</span>,房建项目新开工压力较大,占比<span style="color: #e10000;">73%</span>左右。房地产项目较基建形式要更为严峻,超9成房地产企业反馈资金紧张。基建项目较前期有一定好转,预计4-5月也有一定程度缓解,但总体仍比较紧张。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/1b267f034c94411ca9d545cdae420bf2.png" width="600" height="433" /></p> <p>整体来看,今年<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1010-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>加气块价格</a>基本处于大稳小动的状态,都在低位保持一个平稳运行的态势。在短期内市场需求难有大幅度的提升。</p> <p>随着未来绿色建材和装配式建筑推广应用的不断加大,加气混凝土的市场还有很大的发展空间。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/b02b5cd32ac444cc876ab3cb13a64153.png" width="600" height="95" /></p> <p> </p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/57644fe26df44064bb1550c6f020d4c7.png" width="600" height="234" /></p> <p>近些年,加气行业受到更加广泛的关注,新建条线也越来越多。在这个装配式建筑越来越受到重视的条件下,目前新增加气制品条线中可生产板材条线占比达到了80%。</p> <p>2022年全行业产量为1.68亿立方米,比2021年下降<span style="color: #00b050;">12.5%</span>,呈下滑趋势,其中板材产量1220万立方米,与2021年的600万立方米相比,<span style="color: #e10000;">上升了103%</span>。<strong>板材逆势上涨,</strong>展现了我国大力发展绿色建筑和装配式建筑为行业带来的利好,也体现出加气混凝土发展主要依靠建筑业的结构性调整,而非总量的增加,充分反映出加气混凝土在绿色建筑和装配式建筑发展中的重要作用。</p> <p>并且装配式建筑在政策方面得到强力的支持:到2025年装配式建筑占新建建筑的比例达到30%以上。积极推广绿色建材,支持郑州、新乡等5个装配式建筑示范城市建设,到2025年全省打造高品质装配式建筑标准化技术示范100个以上,创建装配式建筑生产基地5个以上,新开工装配式建筑占新建建筑的面积比例力争达到40%。</p> <p>据不完全统计,河南板材20家(本土),山东辐射过来的10几家,河南砌块有400家、其中小的200家。“市场淘汰制”将成为主流。逐步将板材替代砌块。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/8acc388a464847aeaa993f8220d9b1ac.png" width="600" height="376" /></p> <p>去年河南第一批“保交楼项目”已落地,将刺激到需求端,加大生产端的信心。5月以来,下游部分需求或将陆续见顶,而加气混凝土市场供应情况也不容忽视,加气混凝土厂家库存仍相对较高。同时,外省部分低价竞争对河南市场冲击力度仍较大,短期来看加气混凝土河南市场将保持大稳小动的态势。 </p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 763.636px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/c6ae714c98a94428ba524e41616ae601.png" width="600" height="763" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2023/05/29/d0f79289e114420bb897ab0b1b833089.png" width="600" height="759" /></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑:杜艳涛 021-26094055 </br> 资讯监督:汤浛溟 021-26093670 </br> 资讯投诉:陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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