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field for TEM (here called "salutation_text_TEM") */ let salutation_text_TEM = ''; if (accountSalutation === "[\"female\"]") { salutation_text_TEM = "Sehr geehrte Frau"; } else if (accountSalutation === "[\"male\"]") { salutation_text_TEM = "Sehr geehrter Herr"; } /* Update custom field with new value */ fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: data.uid, /* replace correct form ID and custom field ID */ form_id: config.salutationForm.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify({ salutation_text_TEM: salutation_text_TEM }) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }).then(() => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## salutation_text_TEM updated to ${salutation_text_TEM}`); } if (window.localStorage) { window.localStorage.setItem(`nzz-salutation`, data.uid); } }).catch(e => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log(`##piano## salutation_text_TEM error: 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(window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## extendedUserLoaded for salutation', data); } let salutationField = null; const customFieldValues = data.custom_field_values; if (customFieldValues && customFieldValues.length > 0) { for (const field of customFieldValues) { if (field.field_name === "account_salutation") { salutationField = field; } } } let forceReload = false; if (callbackData.source == "PIANOID") { forceReload = true; } pianoUpdateSalutation(config, data, salutationField, forceReload); }, formName: 'salutation_form' }); }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'checkoutCustomEvent', event => { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent'); } const params = JSON.parse(event.params.params); if (event.eventName === 'purchaseCustom' && params.pmId == 'inbas') { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent: Invoice payments'); } fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: window.tp.pianoId.getUser().uid, form_id: config.CEEvent.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.CEEvent.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }); } else if (event.eventName == 'purchaseCustom' && params.pmId == 'inbaf') { if (window.nzzDebugPiano) { console.log('##piano## onCheckoutExternalEvent: inbaf'); } fetch(config.handlerUrl + new URLSearchParams({ aid: window.tp.aid, uid: window.tp.pianoId.getUser().uid, form_id: config.CEEventInbaf.formName, custom_fields: JSON.stringify(config.CEEventInbaf.params) }), { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Authorization': window.tp.pianoId.getToken(), 'Content-Type': 'application/json; charset=UTF-8' } }); } }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'checkoutClose', event => { if (event && event.state == "checkoutCompleted") { window.location.reload(); } }]); window.tp.push(['addHandler', 'externalCheckoutComplete', event => { /* Default behavior is 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id="page" class="nzz-page-transition"> <div><div data-resor="false" class="article"><section data-vars-danzz-article="" data-nzz-tid="article" data-nzz-referrer="articleLink" data-nzz-article="true" class="container container--article layout--regular"><div id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqh0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="header" data-vars-danzz-first-article-element="true" is-new-line-child="true" class="headline"><div class="headline__highlight"><div class="headline__inner headline__inner--highlight"><div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--content teaser__flag--colored"><div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--default teaser__flag--default-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div></div> <h1 class="headline__title"> <span>Wirtschaft und Finanzmärkte zwischen Feuer und Eis</span></h1></div></div> <div class="headline__inner"><p class="headline__lead">Das Umfeld für Investoren ist gleichzeitig zu heiss und zu kalt. Allmählich dürfte jedoch die Furcht vor Inflation der Angst vor einer drohenden Rezession weichen. Wie wird sich das Fed dann verhalten?</p> <div class="progressbar__wrapper"><div class="progressbar"><div class="progressbar__line"><div class="progressbar__line--fill" style="transform:translateX(-100%);"></div></div></div></div> <div class="headline__meta"> <div class="metainfo metainfo--content"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author"><a target="_blank" href="mailto:mark.dittli@themarket.ch">Mark Dittli ✉️</a></span>    <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date"><time datetime="2022-06-24T15:32:44.830Z"> 24.06.2022, 17.32 Uhr </time> </span></div> <div class="headline__meta-extra"><div class="actionbar actionbar--header"> <div class="popover__placeholder"><div></div> <div class="popover popover--header hidden"><div class="popover__container popover--header"><button class="button popover__close"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 14 14" class="button popover__close-icon svg-icon svg-fill" style="width:12px;height:12px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M1 1l12 12M1 13L13 1" _stroke="#000"/></svg></button> <div class="popover__content"><div class="popover__title">Neue Vorlese-Stimmen</div> <div class="popover__desc">Eine verbesserte Vorlesefunktion steht zur Verfügung. Probieren Sie es aus!</div></div></div></div></div>  <div class="actionbar__item actionbar__item--print"><div class="actionbar__button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 16" class="svg-icon" style="width:18px;height:16px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M3.5.5v4h11v-4h-11z" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="1" d="M3.5 12.5H1.8a1.3 1.3 0 01-1.3-1.3V5.8a1.3 1.3 0 011.3-1.3h14.4a1.3 1.3 0 011.3 1.3v5.4a1.3 1.3 0 01-1.3 1.3h-1.7" _stroke="#000"/><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="2" d="M12.5 8.5h-7a2 2 0 00-2 2v3a2 2 0 002 2h7a2 2 0 002-2v-3a2 2 0 00-2-2z" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Drucken</span></div></div> <div class="actionbar__item share" style="position:relative;"><div class="contextmenu-closed"><div class="actionbar__button actionbar__button--header"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="svg-icon" style="width:18px;height:18px;"><path stroke="#000000" fill="none" pid="0" d="M10.48 1.18l6.795 6.584-6.794 6.353v-3.796l-.513.013c-2.052.051-3.758.423-5.238 1.2-1.471.773-2.684 1.927-3.785 3.49.565-2.854 1.539-5.138 3.005-6.82 1.467-1.683 3.456-2.8 6.116-3.263l.414-.072V1.181z" _stroke="#000"/></svg> <span class="actionbar__label">Teilen</span></div></div>  <div data-nzz-tid="contextmenu-overlay" class="overlay--container"> </div></div> </div></div></div></div></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsql0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text">In der gebräuchlichsten Adaptation des Märchens «Goldilocks and the Three Bears» von Robert Southey schleicht sich ein kleines Mädchen mit goldblonden Haaren – Goldilocks – in das Haus einer Bärenfamilie.</p><div id="id-doc-6be6df12" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="barrier" is-new-line-child="true"><div id="paywall_container" class="disabled-overlay"></div></div><div id="id-doc-874239cc" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="advertisement" is-new-line-child="true" class="nzzinteraction"></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsql1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Dort sieht es drei Schüsselchen mit Haferbrei auf dem Tisch stehen. Das Mädchen versucht zuerst den Brei aus der grössten Schüssel, doch der ist ihm zu heiss. Der Brei aus der zweiten Schüssel ist ihm zu kalt. Der Brei im dritten Schüsselchen ist jedoch genau richtig: nicht zu heiss und nicht zu kalt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsql2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">In Anlehnung an dieses Märchen hat sich an den Finanzmärkten der Begriff der <em>Goldilocks Economy</em> etabliert: Das ist dann der Fall, wenn die Konjunktur weder zu heiss noch zu kalt läuft, sondern genau richtig. Für Investoren ist <em>Goldilocks</em> das perfekte Umfeld.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqm0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Gegenwärtig haben wir es an den Märkten so ziemlich genau mit dem Gegenteil, einer <em>Reverse Goldilocks Economy</em> zu tun: Sie ist gleichzeitig zu heiss und zu kalt. Zu heiss, weil die Inflation viel zu hoch ist, und zu kalt, weil sich die Wirtschaft in Richtung einer Rezession bewegt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqm1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Finanzmärkte bekunden erhebliche Mühe, mit dieser Situation des «zu heiss <em>und</em> zu kalt» – <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/video/was-bedeutet-stagflation-fuer-die-finanzmaerkte-ld.6936">Stagflation</a> – umzugehen. Entsprechend erratisch verhalten sie sich in ihrer Preisfindung.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqm2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wir werfen im dieswöchigen «Big Picture» einen Blick auf die wichtigsten Entwicklungen.</p><div id="id-doc-1f2oscntt0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="enumeration-numeric" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><h2 class="enumeration__title">Die Themen</h2> <ol class="enumeration enumeration--numeric"><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Die Märkte riechen eine Rezession</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Die Arithmetik der Rezession</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Das Fed wird herausgefordert</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Das Feuerlöscher-Dilemma mit der Inflation</li></ol></div><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1f2osgnme0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>1. Die Märkte riechen eine Rezession</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqo1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Finanzmärkte sind ein gigantischer Informationsverarbeitungsmechanismus. Millionen Marktteilnehmer reagieren auf neu erhaltene Informationen, passen ihre Handlungen an und beeinflussen damit wiederum andere Marktteilnehmer.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqo2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Dieser Tage überbieten sich die Research-Abteilungen der Banken mit Prognosen, mit welcher Wahrscheinlichkeit – und zu welchem Zeitpunkt – die US- beziehungsweise die Weltwirtschaft in eine Rezession fallen wird. Nomura erwartet eine Rezession vor Ende dieses Jahres. Goldman Sachs beziffert die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession auf 30%. Citigroup sieht eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 50%.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqp0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wenn immer Sie derartige Schlagzeilen lesen: Ignorieren Sie sie.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqp1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es erschliesst sich uns nicht, was genau der Nutzen daran sein soll, wenn Goldman die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession von 15% auf 30% erhöht. Damit wird bloss eine Prognosepräzision suggeriert, die angesichts der komplexen, adaptiven Natur der Wirtschaft unmöglich ist.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqp2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wir halten uns lieber an die Signale, die uns die Märkte liefern. Sie besitzen unserer Ansicht nach ein feineres Gespür für die Realität als die Ökonomen der Banken.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqp3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ein gängiges derartiges Signal ist die Zinskurve, die die Differenz in den Renditen von Staatsanleihen unterschiedlicher Laufzeiten misst. In den USA ist die Zinskurve ab einer Laufzeit von zwei Jahren gegenwärtig flach wie ein Pfannkuchen: Treasuries mit Laufzeiten von zwei, fünf, zehn und dreissig Jahren handeln alle mit Renditen von leicht über 3%; Teile der Zinskurve sind bereits invers und signalisieren damit die Erwartung einer Rezession.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqp4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Hier als Beispiel die Renditedifferenz zwischen zwei- und zehnjährigen Treasuries:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b42imo0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Zinskurve an der Schwelle zur Inversion" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-GDj3D" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GDj3D/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsqr0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Zwei weitere beliebte Marktindikatoren sind die Aktienkurse von Unternehmen aus der Häuserbau- und der Strassenfrachtbranche (Trucking), da diese als Frühzykliker gelten und rasch auf eine konjunkturelle Abkühlung reagieren. Seit Beginn des Jahres haben beide deutlich verloren:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b4jsq10" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Frühzyklische Industrien im Abwärtssog" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-kLknB" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kLknB/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr20" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Eine signifikante Verschiebung zeigt sich zudem seit wenigen Wochen an den Rohstoffmärkten – wobei dort nebst der allgemeinen Konjunkturlage auch die Situation in China eine wichtige Rolle spielt, wo die Zero-Covid-Politik der Regierung die Wirtschaft hemmt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr30" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Ölpreis sowie Aktien aus dem Energiesektor haben deutlich korrigiert, wie wir <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/analyse/was-bedeutet-eine-rezession-fuer-energieaktien-ld.6937">in dieser Analyse</a> zeigen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr31" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Kupferpreis, wegen seiner konjunktursensitiven Eigenschaften auch Dr. Copper genannt, ist eingebrochen...</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b4lc5v0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Dr. Copper is not amused" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-LdaXb" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LdaXb/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr33" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">...ebenso der Preis für Aluminium:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b4o2qk0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Der Aluminiumpreis verliert deutlich" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-UMDNr" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UMDNr/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr41" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, der alle Rohstoffe von Rohöl, Industriemetallen bis zu Agrargütern umfasst, hat seit Anfang Juni knapp 14% eingebüsst:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b4qqih0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Rohstoffpreise erleiden deutlichen Rückschlag" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-6TaCd" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6TaCd/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr43" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die relative Performance zwischen dem Kupfer- und dem Goldpreis ist ebenfalls ein nützlicher Konjunkturindikator. Schneidet Gold besser ab als Kupfer (dargestellt durch eine fallende Kurve), wittert der Markt eine Abschwächung der Konjunktur:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b4rbhm0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Das Kupfer-Gold-Verhältnis sendet Schwächesignal" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-oFjFF" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oFjFF/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr50" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Aber wieso genau ist die Frage eigentlich so wichtig, ob die Wirtschaft nun in eine Rezession gleiten wird oder nicht?</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr51" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wir zeigen eine einfache Arithmetik dazu im nächsten Kapitel.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1fuel84jl0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>2. Die Arithmetik der Rezession</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr52" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es gibt verschiedene Definitionen von Rezession. Am gängigsten ist es, zwei aufeinanderfolgende Quartale mit rückläufiger Wirtschaftsleistung als Rezession zu bezeichnen. In den USA ist das National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) als Hüterin der Definition verantwortlich, eine Rezession offiziell zu deklarieren. Das geschieht allerdings in der Regel erst mehrere Monate im Nachhinein.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr53" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Aus Sicht der Aktienmärkte können wir uns an eine simple Definition halten: Eine Rezession tritt dann ein, wenn die Unternehmensgewinne auf aggregierter Basis schrumpfen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr54" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Gemäss Berechnungen von Michael Wilson, Aktienstratege von Morgan Stanley, ist der aggregierte Gewinn je Aktie der im S&P 500 enthaltenen US-Konzerne in früheren Rezessionen im Median jeweils um 14% gesunken.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr55" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wenn wir die Gewinnschätzungen der Analysten für die kommenden zwölf Monate betrachten, ist von diesem Szenario allerdings noch nichts zu sehen. Gegenwärtig rechnen sie auf aggregierter Basis immer noch mit einem Gewinn von knapp 234 $ je Aktie für den S&P 500:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b4s0pm0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="Analysten erwarten robuste Unternehmensgewinne" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-KYaBJ" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KYaBJ/4/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr60" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Besonders bemerkenswert wird das Bild, wenn wir die Gewinnschätzungen (orange Kurve, rechte Skala) mit dem Kursverlauf des S&P 500 (blau, linke Skala) vergleichen:</p><figure id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr61" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/8f27b47d-0826-46b1-971c-f92bf1af3ecd.png?width=1200&height=903&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75.28%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="1270" height="956" src="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/8f27b47d-0826-46b1-971c-f92bf1af3ecd.png?width=340&height=256&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1270,955,x0,y0" loading="eager" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/8f27b47d-0826-46b1-971c-f92bf1af3ecd.png?width=680&height=511&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1270,955,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/8f27b47d-0826-46b1-971c-f92bf1af3ecd.png?width=1360&height=1023&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1270,955,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/8f27b47d-0826-46b1-971c-f92bf1af3ecd.png?width=340&height=256&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1270,955,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div>  </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr62" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Der Aktienmarkt, gemessen am S&P 500, hat seit Beginn des Jahres 23% verloren, aber die Gewinnschätzungen sind nicht gesunken. Das bedeutet: Beim Einbruch des Aktienmarktes hat es sich bis anhin einzig um eine Bewertungskontraktion gehandelt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr63" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) des S&P 500 auf Basis der Gewinnschätzungen der nächsten zwölf Monate (<em>Forward P/E</em>) ist von 27 zu Beginn des Jahres auf aktuell knapp 17 gefallen:</p><figure id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr64" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="image" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent image nzzinteraction" style="position:relative;"><div data-nzz-tid="image-placeholder" itemscope="itemscope" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" itemid="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/a38537e4-be56-41e5-8c92-10b23d8fb0ca.png?width=1200&height=885&fit=crop&quality=75&auto=webp" class="image-placeholder image__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:73.76%;"><img alt="" data-nzz-tid="article-image" width="1212" height="894" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/a38537e4-be56-41e5-8c92-10b23d8fb0ca.png?width=680&height=500&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1212,892,x0,y0 680w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/a38537e4-be56-41e5-8c92-10b23d8fb0ca.png?width=1360&height=1000&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1212,892,x0,y0 1360w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/a38537e4-be56-41e5-8c92-10b23d8fb0ca.png?width=340&height=250&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1212,892,x0,y0 340w" class="image-placeholder__image" style="cursor:pointer;transform:scale(1);">  </div> <figcaption class="articlecomponent__description"> <div class="image-description"><h2 data-nzz-tid="image-description-caption" data-team-image-caption="true" class="image-description__caption image-description__caption--large"></h2> <div class="image-description__author"><span data-nzz-tid="image-description-author" class="image-description__author-single">Quelle: Bianco Research</span></div></div></figcaption> </figure><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsr90" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auf dieser Basis, so würde man denken, ist der Aktienmarkt wieder einigermassen fair bewertet. Zumindest ist er nicht mehr so grotesk überbewertet wie Ende 2021.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsra0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Doch nun kommt das «G» des KGV ins Spiel, die Unternehmensgewinne. Angenommen, es kommt tatsächlich zu einer Rezession, und angenommen, die Gewinne sinken im Rahmen ihres historischen Durchschnitts, dann erreichen die Konzerne im S&P 500 im kommenden Jahr nicht 234 $ Gewinn je Aktie, sondern nur 200 bis 205 $.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsra1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auf dieser Basis wäre der S&P 500 derzeit mit einem KGV von immer noch eher hohen 19 bewertet. Nimmt man an, dass das KGV in einem rezessiven Umfeld auf 14 bis 15 fällt, dann ergibt sich für den S&P 500 ein «faires» Niveau von rund 3000. </p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsra2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das würde gemessen am aktuellen Stand des S&P 500 nochmals einem Rückschlag von gut 20% entsprechen.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1f2osq4170" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>3. Das Fed wird herausgefordert</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsra3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Damit Sie uns nicht falsch verstehen: Wir prognostizieren keine Rezession. Wir stellen bloss fest, dass die Finanzmärkte immer deutlichere Signale senden, dass sie eine Rezession erwarten. Zudem zeigt uns <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/the-big-picture/die-sanfte-landung-ist-ein-mythos-ld.6392">die historische Evidenz</a>, dass «sanfte Landungen» in einem Zinserhöhungszyklus des Fed höchst selten sind.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsra4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Deshalb gilt:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6amnakl0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="enumeration-numeric" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent nzzinteraction"> <ol class="enumeration enumeration--numeric"><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den kommenden 18 Monaten muss als hoch erachtet werden.</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Sollte es dazu kommen, dann werden die Unternehmensgewinne deutlich unter das Niveau der gegenwärtigen Erwartungen sinken.</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">In diesem Szenario müsste mit einem weiteren Rückschlag an den breiten Aktienmärkten von rund 20% gerechnet werden.</li></ol></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrb0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Solange sich das Umfeld nicht wesentlich ändert, bleibt dies unser Basisszenario.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrb1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Doch was könnte sich ändern? Ganz einfach: die Reaktionsfunktion der US-Notenbank (Fed).</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrb2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Wir haben Ihnen <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/the-big-picture/auf-kollisionskurs-ld.6425">hier aufgezeigt</a>, dass das Fed grundsätzlich drei Mandate verfolgt, zwei offizielle und ein inoffizielles:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6an72i90" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="enumeration-numeric" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent nzzinteraction"> <ol class="enumeration enumeration--numeric"><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Preisstabilität</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Vollbeschäftigung</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Stabilität des Finanzsystems sowie <br>«Keeping Wall Street Happy»</li></ol></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Mandate Preisstabilität und Vollbeschäftigung sind offiziell im Gesetz festgeschrieben, das dritte Mandat hat sich das Fed seit der Zeit von Alan Greenspan ab 1987 selbst gegeben.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Gegenwärtig gilt eindeutig: <strong>Das Mandat Preisstabilität hat Vorrang gegenüber den anderen Mandaten.</strong> Die Inflation ist ein Politikum in den USA, sie muss bekämpft werden – auch wenn dies steigende Arbeitslosigkeit (Mandat 2) und Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten (Mandat 3) bedeutet.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das muss jedoch nicht so bleiben.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Lehrreich war in diesem Zusammenhang die Reaktion des Bondmarktes auf die Reden vor dem Kongress, die Fed-Chef Jerome Powell diese Woche am Mittwoch und Donnerstag hielt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Powell sagte, die Wirtschaft befinde sich in einem «robusten Zustand». Er bekräftigte, die Bekämpfung der Inflation geniesse Priorität, und er schliesse für die nächste Fed-Sitzung von Ende Juli auch eine Zinserhöhung von 100 Basispunkten nicht aus. Zudem sagte Powell, das Fed würde im Rahmen seines Bilanzabbauprogramms (<em>Quantitative Tightening</em>) möglicherweise auch verbriefte Hypothekarpapiere über den Markt verkaufen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es waren alles in allem <em>hawkishe</em> Aussagen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh6" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">In den vergangenen acht Monaten reagierte der Bondmarkt stets mit einem Anstieg der Treasury-Renditen auf eine überraschende <em>Hawkishness</em> von Powell: Der Markt preiste damit weitere, zusätzliche Fed-Zinserhöhungen ein.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh7" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Dieses Mal nicht mehr. Am Mittwoch und Donnerstag sank die Rendite zehnjähriger Treasury Notes um rund 25 Basispunkte, die Rendite zweijähriger Treasuries büsste zeitweise mehr als 30 Basispunkte ein.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh8" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das kann als Signal gedeutet werden, dass der Bondmarkt einen Zustand der <em>Peak Hawkishness</em> – also den Höhepunkt des geldpolitischen Straffungstempos – wittert, dass er von einer erhöhten Rezessionsgefahr ausgeht und damit rechnet, dass das Fed schon ab 2024 die Leitzinsen wieder senken wird.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh9" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Es ist deshalb sehr gut möglich, dass im Verlauf der kommenden zwei, drei Monate das Thema Inflation an den Finanzmärkten und in der öffentlichen Diskussion in den Hintergrund rücken und vom Thema Rezession abgelöst wird.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh10" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Was wird das Fed dann tun? Unbeirrt die Priorität der Inflationsbekämpfung geben, oder aber signalisieren, dass eine Rezession und steigende Arbeitslosigkeit auch nicht im Interesse der Geldpolitik sei? Wird das Fed dann den Fuss vom Bremspedal nehmen und – irgendwann im Herbst – eine Pause im Zinserhöhungszyklus einlegen?</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh11" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Noch ist davon in der Rhetorik des Fed nichts zu sehen. Aber der Aktienmarkt befasst sich bereits mit dem Szenario einer weniger harten Gangart des Fed: In den vergangenen zwei Tagen haben die zuvor arg gebeutelten Aktien aus Wachstumssektoren wie Technologie oder Medizinaltechnik – in der Schweiz beispielsweise Namen wie <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://themarket.nzz.ch/aktien/no-region/no-list/117544866-4-1">Straumann 📈</a> und <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://themarket.nzz.ch/aktien/no-region/no-list/1384101-4-1">Lonza 📈</a> – eine Erholungsrally erlebt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrh12" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Am ehesten wird eine Abkehr von der harten Linie für das Fed möglich sein, wenn der Arbeitsmarkt deutliche Signale einer Abschwächung sendet. Die wöchentlich publizierten Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung zeigen im Trend zwar bereits nach oben, aber das dürfte noch viel zu wenig sein, um die Nadel für das Fed zu bewegen:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b4v4990" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="datawrapper" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent datawrapper nzzinteraction"><iframe title="USA: Trendwende im Arbeitsmarkt?" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-bW7qb" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bW7qb/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="400"></iframe></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsri1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das Wechselbad zwischen Inflations- und Rezessionsängsten – zu heiss? Zu kalt? – wird daher weitergehen. Die nächsten beiden wichtigen Daten dazu: Am 8. Juli wird der US-Arbeitsmarktbericht für den Monat Juni publiziert. Und am 13. Juli steht die nächste Publikation der Inflationsdaten (Consumer Price Index, CPI) an.</p><h2 data-team-subtitle="" id="id-doc-1g6ad2sbc0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="subtitle" is-new-line-child="true" class="subtitle articlecomponent nzzinteraction"><span>4. Das Feuerlöscher-Dilemma mit der Inflation</span></h2><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsri2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Haben Sie schon einmal versucht, mit einem Kohlendioxid-Feuerlöscher einen Holzbrand zu löschen? Es geht nicht. Die Flammen sind zwar vorübergehend weg, aber die Hitze bleibt. Sobald der Feuerlöscher leer ist und wieder Sauerstoff an den Brandherd gelangt, steht alles wieder in Flammen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsri3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">An dieses Bild fühlen wir uns erinnert, wenn wir das Argument hören, die Zentralbanken müssten eine Rezession in Kauf nehmen, um die Inflation zu besiegen. Sie müssen <em>Demand Destruction</em> betreiben, die aggregierte Nachfrage in der Wirtschaft senken, damit diese auf einem tieferen Niveau mit dem knappen Angebot ins Lot kommt.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsri4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Doch ist das wirklich sinnvoll?</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsri5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ein wichtiger Bestandteil im gegenwärtigen Inflationsdruck sind Angebotsknappheiten aller Art. Knappheiten in den Lieferketten, Knappheiten in den Produktionskapazitäten, etwa im Raffineriesektor, vor allem aber auch Knappheiten in der Förderung fossiler Energieträger und anderer Rohstoffe.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrj0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Ein Teil dieser Knappheiten erklärt sich mit den geringen Investitionen in neue Förder- und Produktionskapazitäten in den vergangenen Jahren. Die Öl- und Gasförderer haben ihre Kapitalinvestitionen (<em>capital expenditures, capex</em>) in den Jahren nach 2014 signifikant gekürzt:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b502890" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="q-embed" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent q-embed widget--qembed nzzinteraction"><div></div></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrj2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Auch die Bergbaukonzerne haben ihre Kapitalinvestitionen deutlich gekürzt:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6b50v8s0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="q-embed" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent q-embed widget--qembed nzzinteraction"><div></div></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Das beste Rezept für eine längerfristige Linderung des Inflationsdrucks wären daher erhöhte Kapitalinvestitionen in Produktions- und Förderkapazitäten, erneuerbare Energie, Raffinerien, Investitionen in Lieferketten aller Art – im Grunde genommen in alles, was die Produktivität erhöht.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk1" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Aber was geschieht in einer Rezession? Genau, die Unternehmen kürzen ihre Kapitalinvestitionen.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk2" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">So gesehen könnte eine von den Zentralbanken provozierte Rezession im Namen der Inflationsbekämpfung eine Art Pyrrhussieg darstellen. Die Teuerung würde kurzfristig zwar deutlich sinken, aber das Problem der knappen Produktions- und Förderkapazitäten bliebe bestehen. Die Hitze bleibt. Im nach der Rezession folgenden Aufschwung wäre der Inflationsdruck rasch wieder zurück.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk3" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Zum Schluss noch zwei Hinweise in eigener Sache:</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk4" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Vergangene Woche haben wir eine gedruckte Sonderausgabe in der «Neuen Zürcher Zeitung» publiziert: 32 geballte Seiten Analyse und Hintergrund zum Thema «Wetterfest anlegen». Falls Sie sie verpasst haben – die Ausgabe steht <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/hinter-der-headline/wetterfest-anlegen-ld.6847">hier für Sie als PDF zum Download</a> bereit.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk5" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Und die Termine unserer nächsten Live-Webinare:</p><div id="id-doc-1g6avi32n0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="enumeration-regular" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent nzzinteraction"> <ul class="enumeration enumeration--regular"><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Das nächste <strong>«The Big Picture Live»-Webinar</strong> findet am <strong>Montag, 27. Juni, um 16 Uhr</strong> statt. Abonnentinnen und Abonnenten von The Market <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_9kRNT-n9SkiML6jvUEtT2A">können sich hier registrieren</a>.</li><li data-team-li="" class="enumeration__item">Am <strong>Montag, 4. Juli, um 16 Uhr</strong> sprechen wir mit <strong>Dr. Martin Lück, Leiter Kapitalmarktstrategie für Deutschland, die Schweiz, Österreich und Osteuropa bei BlackRock,</strong> über das aktuelle Umfeld und die Aussichten an den Finanzmärkten. Sie können sich <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_hWdNM2cPT-CAQ8XZfPYgbg">unter diesem Link</a> registrieren.</li></ul></div><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk6" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Die Aufzeichnungen aller früheren Webinare finden Sie <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch/video">hier</a>.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk7" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Danke für die Zeit, die Sie uns widmen. Wir wünschen Ihnen ein angenehmes Wochenende.</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk8" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Herzlich,</p><p data-team-paragraph="" id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrk9" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="p" data-vars-danzz-last-article-element="true" is-new-line-child="true" class="articlecomponent text nzzinteraction">Mark Dittli und das Team von <a target="_blank" href="https://themarket.ch">The Market</a></p><div id="id-doc-1g6b3tsrl0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="sharebox" is-new-line-child="true" class="nzzinteraction"><div class="sharebox"><div class="sharebox__line"></div> <ul class="sharebox__content"><li class="sharebox__item sharebox__item--bookmark"></li> <li class="sharebox__item sharebox__item--print"><a href="" aria-current="page" title="Drucken" class="sharebox__link nuxt-link-exact-active nuxt-link-active"><svg version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 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fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M20.715 18.75H17.01l2.076 3.558L16 27.75h3.686l3.087-5.453-2.058-3.547z" _fill="#000"/></svg></a></li></ul> <div class="sharebox__line"></div></div> </div><section id="id-doc-1g6b52uhi0" content="" pagetype="Article" componenttype="moreToSubject" is-new-line-child="true" class="pageelement pageelement--moretosubject nzzinteraction"><div class="pageelement__inner"> <div class="widget__row widget__row--noBorder"><div data-team-more-to-subject class="widget--articlelist-a"><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_6936" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/video/was-bedeutet-stagflation-fuer-die-finanzmaerkte-ld.6936" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Was bedeutet Stagflation für die Finanzmärkte?" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/23/04be76b5-d16f-4165-8723-00405e5b34e1.png?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1278,959,x0,y42 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/23/04be76b5-d16f-4165-8723-00405e5b34e1.png?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1278,959,x0,y42 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/23/04be76b5-d16f-4165-8723-00405e5b34e1.png?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1278,959,x0,y42 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/23/04be76b5-d16f-4165-8723-00405e5b34e1.png?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1278,959,x0,y42 240w" width="1278" height="959" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/video/was-bedeutet-stagflation-fuer-die-finanzmaerkte-ld.6936" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="1" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Video </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--0">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Was bedeutet Stagflation für die Finanzmärkte?</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Wirtschaftliche Stagnation und hohe Inflation: Welche Anlagen werfen in einem stagflationären Umfeld eine positive Rendite ab, welche nicht? Das neue «The Market Deep Dive»-Video zeigt die Hintergründe.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli ✉️</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">23.06.2022</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_6937" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/analyse/was-bedeutet-eine-rezession-fuer-energieaktien-ld.6937" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Was bedeutet eine Rezession für Energieaktien?" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/30d6520d-7ff7-49c0-a2bd-e8ec098e5ce0.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2808,2106,x881,y91 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/30d6520d-7ff7-49c0-a2bd-e8ec098e5ce0.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2808,2106,x881,y91 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/30d6520d-7ff7-49c0-a2bd-e8ec098e5ce0.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2808,2106,x881,y91 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/24/30d6520d-7ff7-49c0-a2bd-e8ec098e5ce0.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=2808,2106,x881,y91 240w" width="2809" height="2106" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/analyse/was-bedeutet-eine-rezession-fuer-energieaktien-ld.6937" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="2" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Analyse </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--1">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Was bedeutet eine Rezession für Energieaktien?</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Sorgen um eine Abkühlung der Weltwirtschaft setzen den Ölpreis unter Druck. Aktien von Energiekonzernen verlieren deutlich. Wie steht es um die Perspektiven für den Sektor?</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Christoph Gisiger ✉</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">24.06.2022</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_6881" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/analyse/die-rezessionsgefahr-nimmt-zu-ld.6881" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Die Rezessionsgefahr nimmt zu" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/20/0ea2a6eb-c87f-4594-a57b-1846d58952f0.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1707,1280,x107,y0 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/20/0ea2a6eb-c87f-4594-a57b-1846d58952f0.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1707,1280,x107,y0 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/20/0ea2a6eb-c87f-4594-a57b-1846d58952f0.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1707,1280,x107,y0 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/06/20/0ea2a6eb-c87f-4594-a57b-1846d58952f0.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1707,1280,x107,y0 240w" width="1707" height="1280" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/analyse/die-rezessionsgefahr-nimmt-zu-ld.6881" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="3" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> Analyse </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--2">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Die Rezessionsgefahr nimmt zu</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Nach diversen Schocks ist die Weltwirtschaft angeschlagen, prominente Marktauguren warnen vor einer Rezession. The Market präsentiert eine Auslegeordnung und wirft einen Blick auf die wichtigsten Konjunkturindikatoren.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Sandro Rosa ✉</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">21.06.2022</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article><article data-source-element-widget="" class="teaser--article teaser--articlelist-a "><div id="id-ld_6392" data-nzz-tid="teaser" data-nzz-ct="" class="teaser teaser__layout--regular teaser--size-articlelist-a">    <div flag-item="[object Object]" flag-size="articlelist-a" class="poster poster--articlelist-a poster--articlelist-a-regular"><figure class="poster__figure poster__figure--image"><a href="/the-big-picture/die-sanfte-landung-ist-ein-mythos-ld.6392" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" class="teaser__link teaser__link--poster teaser__link--poster-articlelist-a"><div class="image-placeholder poster__placeholder" style="padding-bottom:75%;"><img alt="Die sanfte Landung ist ein Mythos" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" loading="lazy" srcset="https://img.themarket.ch/2022/04/01/0aa4345b-f28a-49dc-a149-9b95e5660b90.jpeg?width=160&height=120&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4269,3202,x772,y0 160w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/04/01/0aa4345b-f28a-49dc-a149-9b95e5660b90.jpeg?width=320&height=240&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4269,3202,x772,y0 320w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/04/01/0aa4345b-f28a-49dc-a149-9b95e5660b90.jpeg?width=120&height=90&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4269,3202,x772,y0 120w, https://img.themarket.ch/2022/04/01/0aa4345b-f28a-49dc-a149-9b95e5660b90.jpeg?width=240&height=180&fit=bounds&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=4269,3202,x772,y0 240w" width="4269" height="3202" class="image-placeholder__image poster__image cb-it-hide">    </div></a></figure></div>  <div class="teaser__content teaser__content--articlelist-a"><a href="/the-big-picture/die-sanfte-landung-ist-ein-mythos-ld.6392" data-nzz-referrer="articleTeaser" ordinal-number="4" class="teaser__link"><div class="teaser__wrapper">  <div class="teaser__flag teaser__flag--colored teaser__flag--articlelist-a teaser__flag--articlelist-a-regular"><span class="teaser__flag--text"> The Big Picture </span> </div> <h2 class="teaser__title teaser__title--articlelist-a teaser__title--regular teaser__title--3">  <span class="teaser__title-name">Die sanfte Landung ist ein Mythos</span></h2>  <div class="teaser__lead teaser__lead--articlelist-a teaser__lead--regular">Die Finanzmärkte hoffen, dass es dem Fed gelingen wird, den Inflationsdruck zu dämpfen, ohne eine Rezession zu provozieren. Die historische Erfahrung spricht dagegen.</div> </div>  </a> <div bookmark-type="article" bookmark-sub-type="teaser" class="metainfo metainfo--articlelist-a metainfo--regular"><div class="metainfo__main metainfo__main--regular"> <div class="metainfo__wrapper"> <span class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--author">Mark Dittli</span> <time class="metainfo__item metainfo__item--date">01.04.2022</time>   </div> </div> <div class="metainfo__actions metainfo__actions--regular ">  </div></div> </div></div></article></div></div></div></section></section> <div class="cve articlepromobox"></div>   </div></div></div> <div id="footer" class="footer"> <div class="footer__section"><h2 class="footer__section--title"> </h2> <ul class="footer__section--list"><li class="footer__item"><a href="https://abo.themarket.ch/kontakt/" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Abo-Service </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="/agb" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> AGB/Datenschutz </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="/impressum" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Impressum </a></li><li class="footer__item"><a href="https://themarket.ch/feedback" data-nzz-referrer="footermenuLevel1" data-nzz-tid="menu-level-1" class="footer__link"> Feedback </a></li></ul></div> <div class="footer__print"> Copyright © The Market Media AG. 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Market, Schweiz";cb.url=bn;cb.logo={"@type":"ImageObject",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Flogo.png",width:413,height:bU};cb.contactPoint=[{"@type":"ContactPoint",telephone:"+41-44-2581000",contactType:"customer service"}];cb.sameAs=["https:\u002F\u002Fwww.facebook.com\u002FTheMarketCH","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.twitter.com\u002FTheMarket_CH","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.linkedin.com\u002Fcompany\u002Fthe-market-ch\u002F"];cf.title="Suche The Market, Schweiz, https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fsuche";cf.href="\u002Fsuche";cj.standard={Tags:[G,"classification=default","language=de-CH","the-big-picture","product=themarket","doctype=article","pagetype=article","ldid=ld.6942","channel=The Big Picture"],ContentCreated:I,ContentAuthor:D,ContentSection:m,ContentIsNative:d};cj.custom={product:bm,docType:r,pageType:r,layout:l,ldId:H,channel:m,heading:A,language:w};return {layout:"default",data:[{data:{content:[{identifier:bu,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqh0",content:{title:A,lead:M,author:"\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"mailto:mark.dittli@themarket.ch\"\u003EMark Dittli ✉️\u003C\u002Fa\u003E"},component:"header",prevElement:a,nextElement:c,firstContentElement:d},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsql0",content:{text:"In der gebräuchlichsten Adaptation des Märchens «Goldilocks and the Three Bears» von Robert Southey schleicht sich ein kleines Mädchen mit goldblonden Haaren – Goldilocks – in das Haus einer Bärenfamilie."},component:e,prevElement:bu,nextElement:aW},{id:"doc-6be6df12",identifier:aW,prevElement:c,nextElement:aX},{id:"doc-874239cc",identifier:aX,paidContent:d,prevElement:aW,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsql1",content:{text:"Dort sieht es drei Schüsselchen mit Haferbrei auf dem Tisch stehen. Das Mädchen versucht zuerst den Brei aus der grössten Schüssel, doch der ist ihm zu heiss. Der Brei aus der zweiten Schüssel ist ihm zu kalt. Der Brei im dritten Schüsselchen ist jedoch genau richtig: nicht zu heiss und nicht zu kalt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:aX,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsql2",content:{text:"In Anlehnung an dieses Märchen hat sich an den Finanzmärkten der Begriff der \u003Cem\u003EGoldilocks Economy\u003C\u002Fem\u003E etabliert: Das ist dann der Fall, wenn die Konjunktur weder zu heiss noch zu kalt läuft, sondern genau richtig. Für Investoren ist \u003Cem\u003EGoldilocks\u003C\u002Fem\u003E das perfekte Umfeld."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqm0",content:{text:"Gegenwärtig haben wir es an den Märkten so ziemlich genau mit dem Gegenteil, einer \u003Cem\u003EReverse Goldilocks Economy\u003C\u002Fem\u003E zu tun: Sie ist gleichzeitig zu heiss und zu kalt. Zu heiss, weil die Inflation viel zu hoch ist, und zu kalt, weil sich die Wirtschaft in Richtung einer Rezession bewegt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqm1",content:{text:"Die Finanzmärkte bekunden erhebliche Mühe, mit dieser Situation des «zu heiss \u003Cem\u003Eund\u003C\u002Fem\u003E zu kalt» – \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fvideo\u002Fwas-bedeutet-stagflation-fuer-die-finanzmaerkte-ld.6936\"\u003EStagflation\u003C\u002Fa\u003E – umzugehen. Entsprechend erratisch verhalten sie sich in ihrer Preisfindung."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqm2",content:{text:"Wir werfen im dieswöchigen «Big Picture» einen Blick auf die wichtigsten Entwicklungen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:s},{identifier:s,id:"doc-1f2oscntt0",content:{title:"Die Themen"},containers:{enumeration:[{identifier:n,id:"doc-1f2oscq0t0",content:{text:"Die Märkte riechen eine Rezession"},component:o},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6acn1n90",content:{text:"Die Arithmetik der Rezession"},component:o},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1fijunjng0",content:{text:"Das Fed wird herausgefordert"},component:o},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6ackudc0",content:{text:"Das Feuerlöscher-Dilemma mit der Inflation"},component:o}]},component:aY,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:p},{identifier:p,id:"doc-1f2osgnme0",content:{title:"1. Die Märkte riechen eine Rezession",id:"subtitle-1-die-m-rkte-riechen-eine-rezession"},component:ah,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:s,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqo1",content:{text:"Die Finanzmärkte sind ein gigantischer Informationsverarbeitungsmechanismus. Millionen Marktteilnehmer reagieren auf neu erhaltene Informationen, passen ihre Handlungen an und beeinflussen damit wiederum andere Marktteilnehmer."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:p,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqo2",content:{text:"Dieser Tage überbieten sich die Research-Abteilungen der Banken mit Prognosen, mit welcher Wahrscheinlichkeit – und zu welchem Zeitpunkt – die US- beziehungsweise die Weltwirtschaft in eine Rezession fallen wird. Nomura erwartet eine Rezession vor Ende dieses Jahres. Goldman Sachs beziffert die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession auf 30%. Citigroup sieht eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 50%."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqp0",content:{text:"Wenn immer Sie derartige Schlagzeilen lesen: Ignorieren Sie sie."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqp1",content:{text:"Es erschliesst sich uns nicht, was genau der Nutzen daran sein soll, wenn Goldman die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession von 15% auf 30% erhöht. Damit wird bloss eine Prognosepräzision suggeriert, die angesichts der komplexen, adaptiven Natur der Wirtschaft unmöglich ist."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqp2",content:{text:"Wir halten uns lieber an die Signale, die uns die Märkte liefern. Sie besitzen unserer Ansicht nach ein feineres Gespür für die Realität als die Ökonomen der Banken."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqp3",content:{text:"Ein gängiges derartiges Signal ist die Zinskurve, die die Differenz in den Renditen von Staatsanleihen unterschiedlicher Laufzeiten misst. In den USA ist die Zinskurve ab einer Laufzeit von zwei Jahren gegenwärtig flach wie ein Pfannkuchen: Treasuries mit Laufzeiten von zwei, fünf, zehn und dreissig Jahren handeln alle mit Renditen von leicht über 3%; Teile der Zinskurve sind bereits invers und signalisieren damit die Erwartung einer Rezession."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqp4",content:{text:"Hier als Beispiel die Renditedifferenz zwischen zwei- und zehnjährigen Treasuries:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1g6b42imo0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Zinskurve an der Schwelle zur Inversion\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-GDj3D\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FGDj3D\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsqr0",content:{text:"Zwei weitere beliebte Marktindikatoren sind die Aktienkurse von Unternehmen aus der Häuserbau- und der Strassenfrachtbranche (Trucking), da diese als Frühzykliker gelten und rasch auf eine konjunkturelle Abkühlung reagieren. Seit Beginn des Jahres haben beide deutlich verloren:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1g6b4jsq10",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Frühzyklische Industrien im Abwärtssog\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-kLknB\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FkLknB\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr20",content:{text:"Eine signifikante Verschiebung zeigt sich zudem seit wenigen Wochen an den Rohstoffmärkten – wobei dort nebst der allgemeinen Konjunkturlage auch die Situation in China eine wichtige Rolle spielt, wo die Zero-Covid-Politik der Regierung die Wirtschaft hemmt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr30",content:{text:"Der Ölpreis sowie Aktien aus dem Energiesektor haben deutlich korrigiert, wie wir \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fanalyse\u002Fwas-bedeutet-eine-rezession-fuer-energieaktien-ld.6937\"\u003Ein dieser Analyse\u003C\u002Fa\u003E zeigen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr31",content:{text:"Der Kupferpreis, wegen seiner konjunktursensitiven Eigenschaften auch Dr. Copper genannt, ist eingebrochen..."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1g6b4lc5v0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Dr. Copper is not amused\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-LdaXb\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FLdaXb\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr33",content:{text:"...ebenso der Preis für Aluminium:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1g6b4o2qk0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Der Aluminiumpreis verliert deutlich\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-UMDNr\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FUMDNr\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr41",content:{text:"Der Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, der alle Rohstoffe von Rohöl, Industriemetallen bis zu Agrargütern umfasst, hat seit Anfang Juni knapp 14% eingebüsst:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1g6b4qqih0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Rohstoffpreise erleiden deutlichen Rückschlag\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-6TaCd\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002F6TaCd\u002F2\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr43",content:{text:"Die relative Performance zwischen dem Kupfer- und dem Goldpreis ist ebenfalls ein nützlicher Konjunkturindikator. Schneidet Gold besser ab als Kupfer (dargestellt durch eine fallende Kurve), wittert der Markt eine Abschwächung der Konjunktur:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1g6b4rbhm0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Das Kupfer-Gold-Verhältnis sendet Schwächesignal\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-oFjFF\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FoFjFF\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr50",content:{text:"Aber wieso genau ist die Frage eigentlich so wichtig, ob die Wirtschaft nun in eine Rezession gleiten wird oder nicht?"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr51",content:{text:"Wir zeigen eine einfache Arithmetik dazu im nächsten Kapitel."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:p},{identifier:p,id:"doc-1fuel84jl0",content:{title:"2. Die Arithmetik der Rezession",id:"subtitle-2-die-arithmetik-der-rezession"},component:ah,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr52",content:{text:"Es gibt verschiedene Definitionen von Rezession. Am gängigsten ist es, zwei aufeinanderfolgende Quartale mit rückläufiger Wirtschaftsleistung als Rezession zu bezeichnen. In den USA ist das National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) als Hüterin der Definition verantwortlich, eine Rezession offiziell zu deklarieren. Das geschieht allerdings in der Regel erst mehrere Monate im Nachhinein."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:p,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr53",content:{text:"Aus Sicht der Aktienmärkte können wir uns an eine simple Definition halten: Eine Rezession tritt dann ein, wenn die Unternehmensgewinne auf aggregierter Basis schrumpfen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr54",content:{text:"Gemäss Berechnungen von Michael Wilson, Aktienstratege von Morgan Stanley, ist der aggregierte Gewinn je Aktie der im S&P 500 enthaltenen US-Konzerne in früheren Rezessionen im Median jeweils um 14% gesunken."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr55",content:{text:"Wenn wir die Gewinnschätzungen der Analysten für die kommenden zwölf Monate betrachten, ist von diesem Szenario allerdings noch nichts zu sehen. Gegenwärtig rechnen sie auf aggregierter Basis immer noch mit einem Gewinn von knapp 234 $ je Aktie für den S&P 500:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1g6b4s0pm0",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"Analysten erwarten robuste Unternehmensgewinne\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-KYaBJ\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FKYaBJ\u002F4\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr60",content:{text:"Besonders bemerkenswert wird das Bild, wenn wir die Gewinnschätzungen (orange Kurve, rechte Skala) mit dem Kursverlauf des S&P 500 (blau, linke Skala) vergleichen:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:B},{identifier:B,id:bv,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2022\u002F06\u002F24\u002F8f27b47d-0826-46b1-971c-f92bf1af3ecd.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2022\u002F06\u002F24\u002F8f27b47d-0826-46b1-971c-f92bf1af3ecd.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"eDDhubFbiljE",width:1270,height:956,mimeType:aZ,imageService:N,key:"2022\u002F06\u002F24\u002F8f27b47d-0826-46b1-971c-f92bf1af3ecd.png"}},component:bw,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr62",content:{text:"Der Aktienmarkt, gemessen am S&P 500, hat seit Beginn des Jahres 23% verloren, aber die Gewinnschätzungen sind nicht gesunken. Das bedeutet: Beim Einbruch des Aktienmarktes hat es sich bis anhin einzig um eine Bewertungskontraktion gehandelt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:B,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr63",content:{text:"Das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) des S&P 500 auf Basis der Gewinnschätzungen der nächsten zwölf Monate (\u003Cem\u003EForward P\u002FE\u003C\u002Fem\u003E) ist von 27 zu Beginn des Jahres auf aktuell knapp 17 gefallen:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:B},{identifier:B,id:bx,content:{image:{originalUrl:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2022\u002F06\u002F24\u002Fa38537e4-be56-41e5-8c92-10b23d8fb0ca.png",url:"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.themarket.ch\u002F2022\u002F06\u002F24\u002Fa38537e4-be56-41e5-8c92-10b23d8fb0ca.png?width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp",mediaId:"tIBmElzVEnTz",width:1212,height:894,mimeType:aZ,imageService:N,key:"2022\u002F06\u002F24\u002Fa38537e4-be56-41e5-8c92-10b23d8fb0ca.png"},author:a_},component:bw,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsr90",content:{text:"Auf dieser Basis, so würde man denken, ist der Aktienmarkt wieder einigermassen fair bewertet. Zumindest ist er nicht mehr so grotesk überbewertet wie Ende 2021."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:B,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsra0",content:{text:"Doch nun kommt das «G» des KGV ins Spiel, die Unternehmensgewinne. Angenommen, es kommt tatsächlich zu einer Rezession, und angenommen, die Gewinne sinken im Rahmen ihres historischen Durchschnitts, dann erreichen die Konzerne im S&P 500 im kommenden Jahr nicht 234 $ Gewinn je Aktie, sondern nur 200 bis 205 $."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsra1",content:{text:"Auf dieser Basis wäre der S&P 500 derzeit mit einem KGV von immer noch eher hohen 19 bewertet. Nimmt man an, dass das KGV in einem rezessiven Umfeld auf 14 bis 15 fällt, dann ergibt sich für den S&P 500 ein «faires» Niveau von rund 3000. "},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsra2",content:{text:"Das würde gemessen am aktuellen Stand des S&P 500 nochmals einem Rückschlag von gut 20% entsprechen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:p},{identifier:p,id:"doc-1f2osq4170",content:{title:"3. Das Fed wird herausgefordert",id:"subtitle-3-das-fed-wird-herausgefordert"},component:ah,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsra3",content:{text:"Damit Sie uns nicht falsch verstehen: Wir prognostizieren keine Rezession. Wir stellen bloss fest, dass die Finanzmärkte immer deutlichere Signale senden, dass sie eine Rezession erwarten. Zudem zeigt uns \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fthe-big-picture\u002Fdie-sanfte-landung-ist-ein-mythos-ld.6392\"\u003Edie historische Evidenz\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, dass «sanfte Landungen» in einem Zinserhöhungszyklus des Fed höchst selten sind."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:p,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsra4",content:{text:"Deshalb gilt:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:s},{identifier:s,id:"doc-1g6amnakl0",containers:{enumeration:[{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6amnbfv0",content:{text:"Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den kommenden 18 Monaten muss als hoch erachtet werden."},component:o},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6amnseh0",content:{text:"Sollte es dazu kommen, dann werden die Unternehmensgewinne deutlich unter das Niveau der gegenwärtigen Erwartungen sinken."},component:o},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6ampi8e0",content:{text:"In diesem Szenario müsste mit einem weiteren Rückschlag an den breiten Aktienmärkten von rund 20% gerechnet werden."},component:o}]},component:aY,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrb0",content:{text:"Solange sich das Umfeld nicht wesentlich ändert, bleibt dies unser Basisszenario."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:s,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrb1",content:{text:"Doch was könnte sich ändern? Ganz einfach: die Reaktionsfunktion der US-Notenbank (Fed)."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrb2",content:{text:"Wir haben Ihnen \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fthe-big-picture\u002Fauf-kollisionskurs-ld.6425\"\u003Ehier aufgezeigt\u003C\u002Fa\u003E, dass das Fed grundsätzlich drei Mandate verfolgt, zwei offizielle und ein inoffizielles:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:s},{identifier:s,id:"doc-1g6an72i90",containers:{enumeration:[{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6an73tq1",content:{text:"Preisstabilität"},component:o},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6an82o50",content:{text:"Vollbeschäftigung"},component:o},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6an85tp0",content:{text:"Stabilität des Finanzsystems sowie \u003Cbr\u003E«Keeping Wall Street Happy»"},component:o}]},component:aY,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh0",content:{text:"Die Mandate Preisstabilität und Vollbeschäftigung sind offiziell im Gesetz festgeschrieben, das dritte Mandat hat sich das Fed seit der Zeit von Alan Greenspan ab 1987 selbst gegeben."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:s,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh1",content:{text:"Gegenwärtig gilt eindeutig: \u003Cstrong\u003EDas Mandat Preisstabilität hat Vorrang gegenüber den anderen Mandaten.\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E Die Inflation ist ein Politikum in den USA, sie muss bekämpft werden – auch wenn dies steigende Arbeitslosigkeit (Mandat 2) und Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten (Mandat 3) bedeutet."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh2",content:{text:"Das muss jedoch nicht so bleiben."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh3",content:{text:"Lehrreich war in diesem Zusammenhang die Reaktion des Bondmarktes auf die Reden vor dem Kongress, die Fed-Chef Jerome Powell diese Woche am Mittwoch und Donnerstag hielt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh4",content:{text:"Powell sagte, die Wirtschaft befinde sich in einem «robusten Zustand». Er bekräftigte, die Bekämpfung der Inflation geniesse Priorität, und er schliesse für die nächste Fed-Sitzung von Ende Juli auch eine Zinserhöhung von 100 Basispunkten nicht aus. Zudem sagte Powell, das Fed würde im Rahmen seines Bilanzabbauprogramms (\u003Cem\u003EQuantitative Tightening\u003C\u002Fem\u003E) möglicherweise auch verbriefte Hypothekarpapiere über den Markt verkaufen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh5",content:{text:"Es waren alles in allem \u003Cem\u003Ehawkishe\u003C\u002Fem\u003E Aussagen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh6",content:{text:"In den vergangenen acht Monaten reagierte der Bondmarkt stets mit einem Anstieg der Treasury-Renditen auf eine überraschende \u003Cem\u003EHawkishness\u003C\u002Fem\u003E von Powell: Der Markt preiste damit weitere, zusätzliche Fed-Zinserhöhungen ein."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh7",content:{text:"Dieses Mal nicht mehr. Am Mittwoch und Donnerstag sank die Rendite zehnjähriger Treasury Notes um rund 25 Basispunkte, die Rendite zweijähriger Treasuries büsste zeitweise mehr als 30 Basispunkte ein."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh8",content:{text:"Das kann als Signal gedeutet werden, dass der Bondmarkt einen Zustand der \u003Cem\u003EPeak Hawkishness\u003C\u002Fem\u003E – also den Höhepunkt des geldpolitischen Straffungstempos – wittert, dass er von einer erhöhten Rezessionsgefahr ausgeht und damit rechnet, dass das Fed schon ab 2024 die Leitzinsen wieder senken wird."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh9",content:{text:"Es ist deshalb sehr gut möglich, dass im Verlauf der kommenden zwei, drei Monate das Thema Inflation an den Finanzmärkten und in der öffentlichen Diskussion in den Hintergrund rücken und vom Thema Rezession abgelöst wird."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh10",content:{text:"Was wird das Fed dann tun? Unbeirrt die Priorität der Inflationsbekämpfung geben, oder aber signalisieren, dass eine Rezession und steigende Arbeitslosigkeit auch nicht im Interesse der Geldpolitik sei? Wird das Fed dann den Fuss vom Bremspedal nehmen und – irgendwann im Herbst – eine Pause im Zinserhöhungszyklus einlegen?"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh11",content:{text:"Noch ist davon in der Rhetorik des Fed nichts zu sehen. Aber der Aktienmarkt befasst sich bereits mit dem Szenario einer weniger harten Gangart des Fed: In den vergangenen zwei Tagen haben die zuvor arg gebeutelten Aktien aus Wachstumssektoren wie Technologie oder Medizinaltechnik – in der Schweiz beispielsweise Namen wie \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.nzz.ch\u002Faktien\u002Fno-region\u002Fno-list\u002F117544866-4-1\"\u003EStraumann 📈\u003C\u002Fa\u003E und \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.nzz.ch\u002Faktien\u002Fno-region\u002Fno-list\u002F1384101-4-1\"\u003ELonza 📈\u003C\u002Fa\u003E – eine Erholungsrally erlebt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrh12",content:{text:"Am ehesten wird eine Abkehr von der harten Linie für das Fed möglich sein, wenn der Arbeitsmarkt deutliche Signale einer Abschwächung sendet. Die wöchentlich publizierten Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung zeigen im Trend zwar bereits nach oben, aber das dürfte noch viel zu wenig sein, um die Nadel für das Fed zu bewegen:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:h},{identifier:h,id:"doc-1g6b4v4990",content:{datawrapper:{html:"\u003Ciframe title=\"USA: Trendwende im Arbeitsmarkt?\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-bW7qb\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdatawrapper.dwcdn.net\u002FbW7qb\u002F1\u002F\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fiframe\u003E\u003Cscript type=\"text\u002Fjavascript\"\u003E!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var a in e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003Ct.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][a]+\"px\"}}}))}();\u003C\u002Fscript\u003E"}},data:{_datawrapperDirective:{_embedHandler:j}},component:j,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsri1",content:{text:"Das Wechselbad zwischen Inflations- und Rezessionsängsten – zu heiss? Zu kalt? – wird daher weitergehen. Die nächsten beiden wichtigen Daten dazu: Am 8. Juli wird der US-Arbeitsmarktbericht für den Monat Juni publiziert. Und am 13. Juli steht die nächste Publikation der Inflationsdaten (Consumer Price Index, CPI) an."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:h,nextElement:p},{identifier:p,id:"doc-1g6ad2sbc0",content:{title:"4. Das Feuerlöscher-Dilemma mit der Inflation",id:"subtitle-4-das-feuerl-scher-dilemma-mit-der-inflation"},component:ah,contentTable:b,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsri2",content:{text:"Haben Sie schon einmal versucht, mit einem Kohlendioxid-Feuerlöscher einen Holzbrand zu löschen? Es geht nicht. Die Flammen sind zwar vorübergehend weg, aber die Hitze bleibt. Sobald der Feuerlöscher leer ist und wieder Sauerstoff an den Brandherd gelangt, steht alles wieder in Flammen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:p,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsri3",content:{text:"An dieses Bild fühlen wir uns erinnert, wenn wir das Argument hören, die Zentralbanken müssten eine Rezession in Kauf nehmen, um die Inflation zu besiegen. Sie müssen \u003Cem\u003EDemand Destruction\u003C\u002Fem\u003E betreiben, die aggregierte Nachfrage in der Wirtschaft senken, damit diese auf einem tieferen Niveau mit dem knappen Angebot ins Lot kommt."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsri4",content:{text:"Doch ist das wirklich sinnvoll?"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsri5",content:{text:"Ein wichtiger Bestandteil im gegenwärtigen Inflationsdruck sind Angebotsknappheiten aller Art. Knappheiten in den Lieferketten, Knappheiten in den Produktionskapazitäten, etwa im Raffineriesektor, vor allem aber auch Knappheiten in der Förderung fossiler Energieträger und anderer Rohstoffe."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrj0",content:{text:"Ein Teil dieser Knappheiten erklärt sich mit den geringen Investitionen in neue Förder- und Produktionskapazitäten in den vergangenen Jahren. Die Öl- und Gasförderer haben ihre Kapitalinvestitionen (\u003Cem\u003Ecapital expenditures, capex\u003C\u002Fem\u003E) in den Jahren nach 2014 signifikant gekürzt:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:C},{identifier:C,id:"doc-1g6b502890",content:{"q-embed":{service:by,params:{id:a$,toolRuntimeConfig:{displayOptions:{size:bz}},size:ba}},html:"\u003Cdiv class=\"s-q-item q-chart\" style=\"opacity: 0;\" id=\"q_chart_32f8801311469901195060a7253a58944dc8f5cd\"\u003E\n \n \u003Ch3 class=\"s-q-item__title\"\u003EInvestitionsaufkommen globaler Energiekonzerne\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-q-item__subtitle\"\u003EKapitalausgaben, in Mrd. $\n \u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-icon-label\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item\" style=\"color: #374e8e;\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__icon s-legend-item-label__item__icon--default \"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv 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q_chart_32f8801311469901195060a7253a58944dc8f5cdData.element.getBoundingClientRect().width;\n if (newWidth !== q_chart_32f8801311469901195060a7253a58944dc8f5cdData.width) {\n q_chart_32f8801311469901195060a7253a58944dc8f5cdData.width = newWidth;\n loadSVGq_chart_32f8801311469901195060a7253a58944dc8f5cd();\n }\n });\n }\n });\n "}]},component:bC,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrj2",content:{text:"Auch die Bergbaukonzerne haben ihre Kapitalinvestitionen deutlich gekürzt:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:C,nextElement:C},{identifier:C,id:"doc-1g6b50v8s0",content:{"q-embed":{service:by,params:{id:bD,toolRuntimeConfig:{displayOptions:{size:bz}},size:ba}},html:"\u003Cdiv class=\"s-q-item q-chart\" style=\"opacity: 0;\" id=\"q_chart_72f52dcb4e8de022f84b06eb8687075f1efb2975\"\u003E\n \n \u003Ch3 class=\"s-q-item__title\"\u003EInvestitionsaufkommen grosser Eisenerzförderer\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-q-item__subtitle\"\u003ECapEx, in Mrd. $\n \u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-icon-label\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item\" style=\"color: #374e8e;\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__icon s-legend-item-label__item__icon--default \"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__label\"\u003EBHP\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item\" style=\"color: #4fbbae;\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__icon s-legend-item-label__item__icon--default \"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__label\"\u003ERio Tinto\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item\" style=\"color: #df7c18;\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__icon s-legend-item-label__item__icon--default \"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__label\"\u003EAnglo American\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item\" style=\"color: #ac004f;\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__icon s-legend-item-label__item__icon--default \"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__label\"\u003EVale\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item\" style=\"color: #1b87aa;\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__icon s-legend-item-label__item__icon--default \"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__label\"\u003EFortescue Metals\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item\" style=\"color: currentColor;\"\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__icon s-legend-item-label__item__icon--default s-legend-item-label__item__icon--prognosis\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-legend-item-label__item__label\"\u003EPrognose (ab 2021)\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\"q-chart-svg-container\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\"s-q-item__footer\"\u003E\n Quelle: S&P Global Market Intelligence, themarket.ch\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n",stylesheets:[{type:ai,content:bA},{type:ai,content:bB}],scripts:[{type:aj,content:"var date72f52dcb4e8de022f84b06eb8687075f1efb2975,event72f52dcb4e8de022f84b06eb8687075f1efb2975,elements72f52dcb4e8de022f84b06eb8687075f1efb2975;window.digitalData&&window.digitalData.component&&window.digitalData.component.push&&(window.digitalData.component.push({componentInfo:{componentID:\"e7c81c4c46938caa97578064e6816747\",componentName:\"Q\"},category:{componentType:\"storytelling\",componentSubType1:\"Q 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q_chart_72f52dcb4e8de022f84b06eb8687075f1efb2975Data.element.getBoundingClientRect().width;\n if (newWidth !== q_chart_72f52dcb4e8de022f84b06eb8687075f1efb2975Data.width) {\n q_chart_72f52dcb4e8de022f84b06eb8687075f1efb2975Data.width = newWidth;\n loadSVGq_chart_72f52dcb4e8de022f84b06eb8687075f1efb2975();\n }\n });\n }\n });\n "}]},component:bC,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk0",content:{text:"Das beste Rezept für eine längerfristige Linderung des Inflationsdrucks wären daher erhöhte Kapitalinvestitionen in Produktions- und Förderkapazitäten, erneuerbare Energie, Raffinerien, Investitionen in Lieferketten aller Art – im Grunde genommen in alles, was die Produktivität erhöht."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:C,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk1",content:{text:"Aber was geschieht in einer Rezession? Genau, die Unternehmen kürzen ihre Kapitalinvestitionen."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk2",content:{text:"So gesehen könnte eine von den Zentralbanken provozierte Rezession im Namen der Inflationsbekämpfung eine Art Pyrrhussieg darstellen. Die Teuerung würde kurzfristig zwar deutlich sinken, aber das Problem der knappen Produktions- und Förderkapazitäten bliebe bestehen. Die Hitze bleibt. Im nach der Rezession folgenden Aufschwung wäre der Inflationsdruck rasch wieder zurück."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk3",content:{text:"Zum Schluss noch zwei Hinweise in eigener Sache:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk4",content:{text:"Vergangene Woche haben wir eine gedruckte Sonderausgabe in der «Neuen Zürcher Zeitung» publiziert: 32 geballte Seiten Analyse und Hintergrund zum Thema «Wetterfest anlegen». Falls Sie sie verpasst haben – die Ausgabe steht \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fhinter-der-headline\u002Fwetterfest-anlegen-ld.6847\"\u003Ehier für Sie als PDF zum Download\u003C\u002Fa\u003E bereit."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk5",content:{text:"Und die Termine unserer nächsten Live-Webinare:"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:bb},{identifier:bb,id:"doc-1g6avi32n0",containers:{enumeration:[{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6avi4440",content:{text:"Das nächste \u003Cstrong\u003E«The Big Picture Live»-Webinar\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E findet am \u003Cstrong\u003EMontag, 27. Juni, um 16 Uhr\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E statt. Abonnentinnen und Abonnenten von The Market \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fus02web.zoom.us\u002Fwebinar\u002Fregister\u002FWN_9kRNT-n9SkiML6jvUEtT2A\"\u003Ekönnen sich hier registrieren\u003C\u002Fa\u003E."},component:o},{identifier:n,id:"doc-1g6aviaur0",content:{text:"Am \u003Cstrong\u003EMontag, 4. Juli, um 16 Uhr\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E sprechen wir mit \u003Cstrong\u003EDr. Martin Lück, Leiter Kapitalmarktstrategie für Deutschland, die Schweiz, Österreich und Osteuropa bei BlackRock,\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E über das aktuelle Umfeld und die Aussichten an den Finanzmärkten. Sie können sich \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fus02web.zoom.us\u002Fwebinar\u002Fregister\u002FWN_hWdNM2cPT-CAQ8XZfPYgbg\"\u003Eunter diesem Link\u003C\u002Fa\u003E registrieren."},component:o}]},component:"enumeration-regular",paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk6",content:{text:"Die Aufzeichnungen aller früheren Webinare finden Sie \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\u002Fvideo\"\u003Ehier\u003C\u002Fa\u003E."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:bb,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk7",content:{text:"Danke für die Zeit, die Sie uns widmen. Wir wünschen Ihnen ein angenehmes Wochenende."},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk8",content:{text:"Herzlich,"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:c},{identifier:c,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrk9",content:{text:"Mark Dittli und das Team von \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fthemarket.ch\"\u003EThe Market\u003C\u002Fa\u003E"},component:e,paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:bc,lastContentElement:d},{identifier:bc,id:"doc-1g6b3tsrl0",component:"sharebox",paidContent:d,prevElement:c,nextElement:bE},{identifier:bE,id:"doc-1g6b52uhi0",containers:{"moreToSubject-area":[{identifier:ak,id:"doc-1g6b52v1b1",content:{"link-box-embed":{service:al,params:{type:am,layout:[l,an,ao,ap,aq,O,P,Q,R,ar,S,T,U,V,W],mediaId:6936}},article:{metadata:{contentTypeGroup:z,flag:X,significantUpdate:b,language:{groupId:"1CjUkYKlZKQP",label:Y,locale:"en-US"},title:"Was bedeutet Stagflation für die 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