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Mysteel：山东市场冷轧品种2022上半年市场回顾及下半年展望-我的钢铁网
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<p><strong>一、2022上半年市场回顾</strong></p> <p><strong>（一）2022上半年价格走势回顾</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/07/08/085806.png" style="width: 490px; height: 376px;" /></p> <p>从上图可以看出，2022年上半年山东冷轧板卷价格整体呈震荡偏弱运行。具体来看，1-2月份山东冷轧价格受春节影响，再加上冬奥会限产，部分钢厂出台检修计划，价格停在了最低位5390元/吨。3-4月份价格走势呈“凹”字型，首先3月初受春节过后市场出现短暂的集中补货期，需求小幅释放，冷轧价格缓慢上升；之后到3月中下旬，国内疫情多地散点式爆发，山东大部分区域已沦陷，市场运输加严，中高风险地区实行封闭管理，资源流动受到极大限制，现货价格难以上涨，价格维持在5570元/吨上下浮动。4-6月份国内疫情得到有效的把控，物流运输逐步恢复正常，但是对于贸易商而言，高成本的压力只增不减，市场预期需求并未如期释放，成交表现乏力，市场实际成交价格存在议价空间，均以低价资源成交为主，6月中下旬价格已跌破5000元/吨。6月底，各大钢厂陆续发布结算价，商家反馈此次结算价相对偏高，市场持续处于倒挂状态，再加上月底大多商家以降价出货回笼资金为主，基本上都无挺价意愿。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/07/08/085238.png" style="width: 538px; height: 376px;" /></p> <p>一般来说，冷热价差在500-600元/吨处于合理区间，而今年上半年冷热价差基本在455元/吨左右，低于合理价差区间。具体来看，1月份冷热平均价差502元/吨，2月份冷热平均价差493元/吨，3月份冷热平均价差430元/吨，4月份冷热平均价差381元/吨，5月份冷热平均价差452元/吨，6月份冷热平均价差489元/吨。从单月数据来看，4月份冷热价差收窄较为明显，主要原因是一方面4月份各地疫情较为严重，消费信心不足，对购买车辆的需求减少，订单寥寥无几，成品基本堆积在仓库，冷轧需求持续疲软，而<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>受疫情影响相对较小。另一方面受疫情影响，出货情况一直表现偏差，到货速率缓慢，市场资源偏紧，导致商家库存处于正常偏低水平，再加上商家对后市处于谨慎观望状态，冷轧价格跟涨动力不足，波动幅度较小，因此冷热价差收窄。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/07/08/085300.png" style="width: 531px; height: 377px;" /></p> <p>从上海-日照区域冷轧价差对比图来看，上半年区域价差异常出现过两次，其中一次为价差倒挂，另一次为区域价差创下新高，其中最大价差为200元/吨，最小表现为倒挂80元/吨。具体来看，1-3月份中旬，上海-日照冷轧价差在120元/吨左右波动，其中1月初区域价差最大，主要原因是1月份山东地区部分终端客户已提前放假，其他客户在15-22号集中放假，终端采购相对偏少，备货积极性并不高。再加上1月份河南、天津等地频繁曝出疫情新增情况，对物流运输方面造成一定的影响，商家考虑到春节期间钢厂正常到货，届时库存会小幅累库，致使商家春节前仍以降价出货为主，甚至市场还存在议价空间，故上海-日照冷轧价差拉开。</p> <p>3月下旬-4月中旬，上海-日照区域冷轧价差收窄，价差最低点为-80元/吨，主要原因是上海疫情严重，所有人员都居家办公，资源无法正常流通，导致上海价格一直维持5620元/吨左右，山东地区疫情虽然有所转好，但多地封控尚未完全解除，物流运输皆不同程度受阻，部分区域部分市场库存持续下降，贸易商在货少的情况下，挺价意愿明显加强，故上海价格低于日照价格。截止6月30日，以冷轧1.0mm*1250mm为例，上海宝钢青山价格4900元/吨，日照山钢日照价格4850元/吨，现价差为50元/吨。</p> <p><strong>（二）2022上半年基本面情况回顾</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img alt="" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/07/08/085344.png" style="width: 525px; height: 305px;" /></strong></p> <p>从山东冷轧社会库存方面来看，2022年上半年山东社库与去年相比处于相对偏高水平。根据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>最新调研数据，目前山东社库为1.37万吨左右，较去年同期增幅15.12%。具体来看，1-2月份部分钢厂检修，市场供应量偏少，实际入库资源不多，库存有所增加但未到累库高潮，增速缓慢于往年。2月中下旬达到上半年年内峰值，最高库存量在1.73万吨，与去年同期相比增幅17.68%。一般来说，“金三银四”是需求集中释放、资源降库的最佳时机，而今年3-4月份却有所不同，需求仍未完全释放，市场出货主要以商家之间流通为主，冷轧社库开始减库，一方面是由于订货成本较高，贸易商订货量减少；另一方面是由于近期价格再次拉涨，部分终端需求被释放。5-6月份，国内各地疫情步入尾声，各地市场有序恢复正常流通，但由于山东汽车、家电等行业接单情况仍表现惨淡，市场“买涨不买跌”的情绪居高不下，整体库存并未得到有效缓解，反而缓慢上升。</p> <p><strong>二、2022下半年市场展望</strong></p> <p><strong>（一）2022下半年供需格局展望</strong></p> <p><strong>从供给端来看</strong>，据悉，莱钢7月初检修5天左右，主要原因是冷轧供料不足；山钢日照7月份开始对冷轧减产，预计减量4多万吨。根据Mysteel最新数据统计，华东钢厂产能利用率67.75%，周环比增加1.02%；钢厂产量15.89万吨，周环比增加0.24万吨；钢厂库存14.40万吨，周环比0.30万吨。目前山东区域钢厂没有大型的检修计划，短期内冷轧供应或趋于稳定，周边外围市场在价差合理的情况下或有冷轧资源（如安阳、邯郸冷轧资源）阶段性涌入。</p> <p><strong>从需求端来看</strong>，上半年汽车、家电等行业整体氛围为“旺季不旺，淡季明显”，而行内所谓的“金三银四”却被疫情占据了一半，需求有所滞后。据了解，某电动车配套厂6月实际生产2000多台低速电动车，与月计划1万台相差甚远，而高速电动车自从春节后到现在只生产了300台，再加上工人数量大幅减少、资金回款艰难等因素影响，导致开工率极低，订单惨淡。目前山东市场终端客户采购意愿较低，多按需采购为主，再加上7-8月份为高温多雨天气，短期需求或依旧疲软。而七八月份过后即将迎来传统的“金九银十”，届时鼓励汽车、家电等消费政策已经落地实施，需求或将短暂性回暖。</p> <p><strong>（二）2022下半年价格行情展望</strong></p> <p><strong>从价格方面来看</strong>，近期黑色系期货盘面波动幅度较大，多数商家以稳为主或小幅下跌，现货市场交投氛围较为冷清，市场成交并未达到预期，使得贸易商心态仍然偏谨慎。现冷热价差小幅扩大，随着“金九银十”的到来，需求或将得到短暂性释放，预计冷热价差会逐渐回归正常区间，冷轧价格有望震荡偏强运行。</p> <p><strong>综合来看</strong>，随着全球经济增速进一步放缓，钢铁消费将进一步降低。目前处于大宗商品的下行周期，短期内需求不足或将成为钢价下行的主要原因。但随着货币政策、财政政策的利好，对后期刺激消费，经济增长会有一定的促进作用。今年的“金九银十”或将迎来反弹机会，预计下半年山东冷轧价格或将震荡偏强运行，但全年的冷轧板卷需求同比减弱情况下，预计全年山东冷轧板卷价格仍会呈现趋弱调整的大趋势。</p> 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