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value="temperature">Temperature</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-2161" data-sf-count="12" data-sf-depth="0" value="tipping-points">Tipping points</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-1897" data-sf-count="42" data-sf-depth="0" value="translations">Translations</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-59" data-sf-count="107" data-sf-depth="0" value="uk-emissions">UK emissions</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-64" data-sf-count="355" data-sf-depth="0" value="uk-policy">UK policy</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-24" data-sf-count="33" data-sf-depth="0" value="uk-temperature">UK temperature</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-2041" data-sf-count="67" data-sf-depth="0" value="un-climate-talks">UN climate talks</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-1835" data-sf-count="34" data-sf-depth="0" value="us-policy">US Policy</option> <option class="sf-level-0 sf-item-2177" data-sf-count="14" data-sf-depth="0" value="webinars">Webinars</option> <option 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class="ccfic-text">Flood water displaces residents in Nigeria.</span> <span class="ccfic-source"><a href="https://www.alamy.com/2K512WM" target="_blank">Credit: Reuters/ Alamy Stock Photo.</a></span></div> </div> <div class="shadeBg"> <div class="owlDesc"> <div class="owlDT"> <span><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/category/science/extreme-weather/">EXTREME WEATHER</a></span> <div class="artDate">26 October 2022 <i class="clockIcon"></i> 15:15</div> </div> <h1>Analysis: Africa’s unreported extreme weather in 2022 and climate change</h1>   <ul class="shareArtInner shareArtInnerDesktop" role="menu"> <li role="menuitem"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer?u=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change/&t=Analysis: Africa’s unreported extreme weather in 2022 and climate change" target="_blank" data-network="facebook" aria-label="Share to Facebook"> <img alt="Facebook icon" 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href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#142b6761767e71776029557a75786d677d672e345572667d7775f6948d6734617a6671647b6660717034716c606671797134637175607c7166347d7a342624262634757a703477787d7975607134777c757a7371327579642f767b706d297c606064672e3b3b6363633a777566767b7a76667d71723a7b66733b757a75786d677d67397572667d77756739617a6671647b6660717039716c606671797139637175607c7166397d7a392624262639757a703977787d7975607139777c757a73713b3a" aria-label="Share by Email"> <img alt="Email icon" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/themes/carbonbrief/images/icons/mail.svg" /> </a> </li> <li role="menuitem"> <a href="whatsapp://send?text=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change/" target="_blank" data-action="share/whatsapp/share" aria-label="Share in WhatsApp"> <img alt="WhatsApp icon" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/themes/carbonbrief/images/icons/whatsapp.svg" /> </a> </li> </ul> <div class="topWriter mobTopWriter"> <span><img data-del="avatar" src='https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/daisy-thumbnail-300x300.jpg' class='avatar pp-user-avatar avatar-96wp-user-avatar wp-user-avatar-smallPic photo ' height='96' width='96'/></span> <div class="twDtls"> <h4><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/author/daisydunne/">Daisy Dunne</a></h4> <small>10.26.22</small> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div>   <div class="greyBar">  <div class="topWriter ArtWriter"><span><img data-del="avatar" src='https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/daisy-thumbnail-300x300.jpg' class='avatar pp-user-avatar avatar-96wp-user-avatar wp-user-avatar-smallPic photo ' height='96' width='96'/></span><div class="twDtls"><h4><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/author/daisydunne/">Daisy Dunne</a></h4><small>26.10.2022 | 3:15pm</small></div></div> <div class="centerDtls"> <span><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/category/science/extreme-weather/">Extreme weather</a></span><span id="thatsthetitle">Analysis: Africa’s unreported extreme weather in 2022 and climate change</span> </div> <div class="threeOptIcon"> <ul id="shareArt"> <li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change/" class="facebook-share-button" data-network="facebook"><i class="fab fa-facebook-f"></i></a></li> <li><a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Analysis%3A+Africa%E2%80%99s+unreported+extreme+weather+in+2022+and+climate+change&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.carbonbrief.org%2Fanalysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change%2F"><i class="fab fa-twitter"></i></a></li> <li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/cws/share?url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change/"><i class="fab fa-linkedin"></i></a></li> <li><a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#013e7274636b6462753c406f606d787268723b21406773686260e381987221746f7364716e737564652164797573646c64217664607569647321686f213331333321606f6521626d686c607564216269606f666427606c713a636e65783c69757571723b2e2e7676762f626073636e6f63736864672f6e73662e606f606d787268722c606773686260722c746f7364716e737564652c64797573646c642c766460756964732c686f2c333133332c606f652c626d686c6075642c6269606f66642e2f" title="Share by Email"><i class="fa fa-envelope"></i></a></li> </ul> <a href="#" id="showArtS"><i class="shareIconG"></i></a> <a href="#"><i class="printIcon"></i></a> </div> <div class="scrollWrapper"> <div class="scroll-bar"></div> </div> </div>  <div class="article-wrapper"> <div class="innerArt"> <p>From deadly floods in Nigeria to devastating drought in Somalia, Africa has faced a run of severe – and sometimes unprecedented – extreme weather events since the start of 2022.</p> <p>But while the US hurricane season and 40C heat in the UK have captured headlines, many of Africa’s most extreme and life-changing weather events went largely unreported in global-north media.</p> <p>Ahead of COP27 in Egypt – which is being <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/october-2022/cop27-africa%E2%80%99s-cop-it-must-address-africa%E2%80%99s-climate-challenges" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">referred</a> to as “Africa’s COP” – Carbon Brief has used disaster data, humanitarian reports and local testimony to investigate Africa’s 2022 extreme weather events – and examined how they could be linked to climate change, according to scientists.</p> <p>Carbon Brief’s analysis of disaster records finds that extreme weather events in Africa have killed at least 4,000 people and affected a further 19 million since the start of 2022. However, the impacts of African extreme events often go unrecorded – especially for heatwaves – and so the true figures are likely to be much higher.</p> <p>The investigation also shows that:</p> <ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Drought and famine have killed 2,500 people in Uganda and affected eight million in Ethiopia this year.</li><li>More than 600 people have died in Nigeria’s worst floods in a decade. This includes 76 people who were killed when a boat carrying flood victims capsized.</li><li>Southern African countries, including Madagascar and Mozambique, were battered by six severe storms this year, killing at least 890 people.</li><li>Temperatures reached 48C in Tunisia in July, fanning the flames of extreme wildfires.</li><li>Nearly two million people in Chad were affected by floods in August and October.</li></ul> <p>The toll of extreme weather on African lives is one example of “loss and damage” – a term to describe how climate change is already harming people, especially the world’s most vulnerable. </p> <p>Loss and damage is expected to feature heavily at COP27, where global-south nations will call on developed countries to provide funds for the climate impacts they are already experiencing. (See Carbon Brief’s recent <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/q-a-should-developed-nations-pay-for-loss-and-damage-from-climate-change/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">special series</a> on loss and damage for more details.)</p> <p>“Africa contributes 4% of global emissions, yet is at the frontline of the loss and damage. Loss and damage finance is not negotiable,” Adenike Oladosu, a climate activist from Nigeria, tells Carbon Brief.</p> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="top"></div> <ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="#map" rel="nofollow">Map of African extremes</a></li><li><a href="#cyclones" rel="nofollow">Cyclones</a></li><li><a href="#floods" rel="nofollow">Floods</a></li><li><a href="#heatwaves" rel="nofollow">Heatwaves</a></li><li><a href="#wildfires" rel="nofollow">Wildfires</a></li><li><a href="#drought" rel="nofollow">Drought and famine</a></li></ul> <div style="height:40px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="map"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Continent of extremes</h2> <p>Africa is one of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg2-chapter9-1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">most vulnerable</a> continents in the world to climate change, according to the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC).</p> <p>In 2022, every part of the continent was affected by extreme weather events, ranging from wildfires in Algeria to catastrophic flooding in South Africa.</p> <p>To study these events, Carbon Brief has combined UN humanitarian reports and local news stories with data from the <a href="https://www.emdat.be/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Emergency Events Database</a> (EM-DAT), which was launched in 1988 by the <a href="https://www.cred.be/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters</a> (CRED) in Belgium.</p> <p>The map below shows extreme weather events affecting Africa in 2022 to date, according to the EM-DAT database. On the map, the size of the circles correspond to the number of people affected by the event, while a colour key indicates the event type.</p> <p>For an extreme event to be featured on the EM-DAT database, it must fulfil one of the following criteria:</p> <ul class="wp-block-list"><li>10 or more people dead.</li><li>100 or more people affected.</li><li>The declaration of a state of emergency.</li><li>A call for international assistance.</li></ul> <p>(It is worth noting that the EM-DAT is the largest disaster database available, but is still not exhaustive, particularly for <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-africas-heatwaves-are-a-forgotten-impact-of-climate-change/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">African nations</a>. In addition, some of the most recent extreme events to strike Africa, such as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-63280518" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nigeria’s October floods</a>, have not yet been added.)</p> <div class="b-wide-image" id="iframeMob" style="padding:0px; text-align:center"><iframe src="https://cb-map.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/africa-extreme-weather-wide.html" style="border:0px #ffffff none;" name="myiFrame" scrolling="no" marginheight="0px" marginwidth="0px" allowfullscreen="" width="100%" height="900px" frameborder="0"></iframe></div> <style>@media (max-width: 650px){#iframeMob{display:none}}</style> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/mobile-square-2.png" id="mob" alt="Extreme weather events in Africa in January-October 2022." class="wp-image-33774"></figure><style>@media (min-width: 650px){#mob{display:none}}</style> Extreme weather events in Africa in January-October 2022. Data source: <a href="https://www.emdat.be/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Emergency Events Database</a> (EM-DAT). (Not all extreme events are captured by EM-DAT.) Map by Joe Goodman for Carbon Brief. <p>Carbon Brief analysis of the EM-DAT database finds that extreme weather events in Africa have killed at least 4,000 people and affected a further 19 million since the start of 2022. </p> <p>However, the impacts of African extreme events often go unrecorded – especially for heatwaves (see below) – and so the true figures are likely to be higher.</p> <p>Overall, 2022 has shown how climate change is already having major consequences for vulnerable populations across Africa, says <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/f.otto" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Friederike Otto</a>, a prominent extreme weather scientist at <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Imperial College London</a>. She tells Carbon Brief:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“The biggest impact of climate change is not so much that single events have been made more extreme, but that there are even more extreme weather events in a region that already has always suffered from very high natural variability and high vulnerability. Just small changes in the number of extreme events are already having a huge impact.”</p></blockquote> <p><em><a href="#top" rel="nofollow">Back to top</a></em></p> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="cyclones"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Cyclones</h2> <p>Southern African countries faced a series of severe cyclones in the first few months of 2022, killing at least 890 people and affecting a further 2.8 million, according to a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/madagascar/southern-africa-humanitarian-snapshot-january-june-2022" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">report</a> from the <a href="https://www.unocha.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs</a> (OCHA).</p> <p>This included:</p> <ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Ana_(2022)" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tropical Storm Ana</a>, which caused 171 deaths across Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe in January.</li><li>Tropical Cyclones <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Batsirai" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Batsirai</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Emnati" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Emnati</a>, which killed 136 people in Madagascar in February.</li><li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Dumako" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tropical Storm Dumako</a>, which killed 14 people in Madagascar and Mozambique in February.</li><li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Gombe" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tropical Cyclone Gombe</a>, which killed 103 people in Mozambique and Malawi in March.</li><li><a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/madagascar/madagascar-tropical-storm-jasmine-update-echo-daily-flash-28-april-2022" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tropical Storm Jasmine</a>, which affected 5,000 people in Madagascar in April.</li></ul> <p>Heavy rain and floods associated with the storms contributed to outbreaks of water-borne diseases, food insecurity and malnutrition, according to the OCHA report.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-woman-carries-a-child-as-locals-who-were-displaced-from-Cyclone-Ana-find-refuge-in-an-evacuation-centre-at-the-neighbourhood-of-West-Ankorondrano-Madagagascar-5-February-2022..jpg" alt="A woman carries a child as locals who were displaced from Cyclone Ana find refuge in an evacuation centre at the neighbourhood of West Ankorondrano, Madagagascar, 5 February 2022." class="wp-image-44050" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-woman-carries-a-child-as-locals-who-were-displaced-from-Cyclone-Ana-find-refuge-in-an-evacuation-centre-at-the-neighbourhood-of-West-Ankorondrano-Madagagascar-5-February-2022..jpg 1024w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-woman-carries-a-child-as-locals-who-were-displaced-from-Cyclone-Ana-find-refuge-in-an-evacuation-centre-at-the-neighbourhood-of-West-Ankorondrano-Madagagascar-5-February-2022.-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-woman-carries-a-child-as-locals-who-were-displaced-from-Cyclone-Ana-find-refuge-in-an-evacuation-centre-at-the-neighbourhood-of-West-Ankorondrano-Madagagascar-5-February-2022.-270x180.jpg 270w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-woman-carries-a-child-as-locals-who-were-displaced-from-Cyclone-Ana-find-refuge-in-an-evacuation-centre-at-the-neighbourhood-of-West-Ankorondrano-Madagagascar-5-February-2022.-768x512.jpg 768w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-woman-carries-a-child-as-locals-who-were-displaced-from-Cyclone-Ana-find-refuge-in-an-evacuation-centre-at-the-neighbourhood-of-West-Ankorondrano-Madagagascar-5-February-2022.-107x71.jpg 107w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-woman-carries-a-child-as-locals-who-were-displaced-from-Cyclone-Ana-find-refuge-in-an-evacuation-centre-at-the-neighbourhood-of-West-Ankorondrano-Madagagascar-5-February-2022.-200x133.jpg 200w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-woman-carries-a-child-as-locals-who-were-displaced-from-Cyclone-Ana-find-refuge-in-an-evacuation-centre-at-the-neighbourhood-of-West-Ankorondrano-Madagagascar-5-February-2022.-420x280.jpg 420w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>A woman carries a child as locals who were displaced from Cyclone Ana in February 2022 find refuge in an evacuation centre in Madagagascar. Credit: Reuters / <a href="https://www.alamy.com/2HKMCAK" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alamy Stock Photo</a>.</figcaption></figure> <p>Cholera outbreaks were recorded in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia, the report says, while an increase in malaria was reported in Mozambique and Madagascar.</p> <p>In the Grand Sud-Est of Madagascar, food insecurity reached crisis levels, while in Malawi, “many families lost their food stocks when their homes were destroyed or flooded by the tropical storms”, according to the report.</p> <p>The map below, taken from the OCHA report, shows the path of cyclones in southern Africa (red) and the impacts of their associated heavy rains and flooding (blue) during the first six months of 2022. The map also illustrates the number of people affected (grey bubbles) and the location of disease outbreaks. </p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="940" height="1024" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Impact-of-tropical-cyclones-in-southern-Africa-in-Jan-Jun-2022-940x1024.png" alt="Impact of tropical cyclones in southern Africa in Jan-Jun 2022" class="wp-image-44113" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Impact-of-tropical-cyclones-in-southern-Africa-in-Jan-Jun-2022-940x1024.png 940w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Impact-of-tropical-cyclones-in-southern-Africa-in-Jan-Jun-2022-276x300.png 276w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Impact-of-tropical-cyclones-in-southern-Africa-in-Jan-Jun-2022-768x836.png 768w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Impact-of-tropical-cyclones-in-southern-Africa-in-Jan-Jun-2022.png 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px" /><figcaption>The impact of tropical cyclones in southern Africa in the first six months of 2022. Credit: UN OCHA (<a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/madagascar/southern-africa-humanitarian-snapshot-january-june-2022" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">2022</a>).</figcaption></figure> <p>Storms affecting this part of southern Africa originate in the south-west Indian Ocean, a known hotspot for cyclones, explains <a href="https://www.csag.uct.ac.za/author/ipinto/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Izidine Pinto</a>, a climate scientist from Mozambique currently working at the <a href="https://www.climatecentre.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre</a> in South Africa. He tells Carbon Brief:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“Tropical cyclones and flooding is something that is frequent in Mozambique, happening maybe once or two times a year usually.”</p></blockquote> <p>The 2021-22 south-west Indian Ocean cyclone season was “above average”, producing 12 named storms and five tropical cyclones, according to analysis from the US state <a href="https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Joint Typhoon Warning Center</a>.</p> <p>Pinto was part of a group of scientists who earlier this year produced a <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-rainfall-associated-with-tropical-cyclones-hitting-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-madagascar-mozambique-malawi/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">rapid analysis</a> examining the influence of human-caused climate change on storms Ana and Batsirai.</p> <p>The study found that climate change led to an increase in the intensity of the rainfall associated with the two storms. Otto, who led the analysis, explains to Carbon Brief:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“We found that climate change made the rainfall associated with these tropical cyclones more likely, but there’s still a lot of open questions.</p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“What about the wind speeds? We looked at two cyclones, but there were actually several tropical cyclones hitting that area this year. And so a really important and still open question is, is this <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-the-new-ipcc-report-says-about-extreme-weather-and-climate-change/#events" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">compounding of events</a> becoming more likely because of climate change?”</p></blockquote> <p>(The analysis is an example of “attribution science”, a fast growing field examining the fingerprint of climate change on extreme events. More than 400 attribution studies have now been published, which Carbon Brief has <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">mapped</a>.)</p> <p>Overall, the findings of the analysis are in line with the conclusions of the most recent IPCC <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">assessment</a> of the extent of human-caused climate change, says Pinto, who was a lead author of the report: </p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“We found that extreme rainfall events are becoming more intense in many parts of the world, including Mozambique. We see that, when a cyclone happens, the amount of rainfall is larger compared to previous tropical cyclones.”</p></blockquote> <p>In its most <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Africa.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">recent assessment</a> of climate change’s impact on Africa, the IPCC concludes that eastern southern Africa is likely to see an increase in average tropical cyclone wind speeds and rainfall, as well as a higher proportion of category 4 and 5 (<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the most severe</a>) storms, as climate change worsens.</p> <p><em><a href="#top" rel="nofollow">Back to top</a></em></p> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="floods"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Floods</h2> <p>From east to west and north to south, much of the African continent has faced severe flooding in 2022. </p> <p>Carbon Brief analysis of EM-DAT data shows there have been at least 29 flood disasters reported in countries, including Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gambia, Ghana, the Ivory Coast, Mauritiana, Madagascar, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.</p> <p>Some of the most extreme flooding has taken place in west Africa.</p> <p>This includes an ongoing flood in Nigeria, which has so far killed more than 600 people and affected a further 1.3 million, according to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-63280518" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">government briefings to the media</a>. The floods are the most severe the country has seen in a decade.</p> <p>Among the dead are 76 people who were killed when a boat carrying flood victims capsized.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">At least 76 people in Nigeria were killed after a boat carrying flood victims capsized.<br><br>Many were families fleeing floods in Anambra that have destroyed communities. Nigeria is facing its worst floods in a decade, devastating crops and making at least 100,000 people homeless. <a href="https://t.co/MbjwtiEMkS">pic.twitter.com/MbjwtiEMkS</a></p>— AJ+ (@ajplus) <a href="https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/1579449416586592257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script data-cfasync="false" src="/cdn-cgi/scripts/5c5dd728/cloudflare-static/email-decode.min.js"></script><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <p>The flooding is having a vast range of impacts across Nigeria, climate activist Adenike Oladosu tells Carbon Brief:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“Lives are lost, classrooms submerged with water, thereby affecting education; farmers left with nothing other than an empty flood-filled landscape while economic activities are disrupted. </p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“This flood has cost more than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/03/hurricane-ian-cost-death-toll-florida" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hurricane Ian</a> [which hit parts of the US and Caribbean in September], yet the media from the global north have not given it the attention it deserves. It shows the disparity in media reporting.”</p></blockquote> <p>Other serious events include two floods in Chad, the first affecting 977,000 people in August and the second affecting one million people in October, according to EM-DAT data and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chad-declares-state-emergency-floods-affect-1-million-people-2022-10-19/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">newswire reporting</a>.</p> <p>The flood came amid the country’s heaviest rainfall in 30 years, according to a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/west-and-central-africa-weekly-regional-humanitarian-snapshot-30-august-5-september-2022" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">UN OCHA report</a>. The report continues:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“Through August, torrential rainfall and floods have left parts of the capital N’Djamena submerged under water and forced thousands to flee their inundated houses.</p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“Floods are frequent in west and central Africa during the rainy season, which typically lasts from May to October. However, this year the rains came in greater quantity, immediately flooding ponds and drainage systems. Large parts of the region are now underwater, with numerous countries recording above-average precipitation.”</p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Flood-victims-set-up-makeshift-shelters-in-a-schoolyard-where-they-take-refuge-after-heavy-rains-in-Ndjamena-Chad-2-September-2022..jpg" alt="Flood victims set up makeshift shelters in a schoolyard where they take refuge after heavy rains in Ndjamena, Chad, 2 September 2022." class="wp-image-44051" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Flood-victims-set-up-makeshift-shelters-in-a-schoolyard-where-they-take-refuge-after-heavy-rains-in-Ndjamena-Chad-2-September-2022..jpg 1024w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Flood-victims-set-up-makeshift-shelters-in-a-schoolyard-where-they-take-refuge-after-heavy-rains-in-Ndjamena-Chad-2-September-2022.-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Flood-victims-set-up-makeshift-shelters-in-a-schoolyard-where-they-take-refuge-after-heavy-rains-in-Ndjamena-Chad-2-September-2022.-270x180.jpg 270w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Flood-victims-set-up-makeshift-shelters-in-a-schoolyard-where-they-take-refuge-after-heavy-rains-in-Ndjamena-Chad-2-September-2022.-768x512.jpg 768w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Flood-victims-set-up-makeshift-shelters-in-a-schoolyard-where-they-take-refuge-after-heavy-rains-in-Ndjamena-Chad-2-September-2022.-107x71.jpg 107w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Flood-victims-set-up-makeshift-shelters-in-a-schoolyard-where-they-take-refuge-after-heavy-rains-in-Ndjamena-Chad-2-September-2022.-200x133.jpg 200w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Flood-victims-set-up-makeshift-shelters-in-a-schoolyard-where-they-take-refuge-after-heavy-rains-in-Ndjamena-Chad-2-September-2022.-420x280.jpg 420w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Flood victims set up makeshift shelters in a schoolyard where they take refuge after heavy rains in Chad, 2 September 2022. Credit: Reuters / <a href="https://www.alamy.com/2JWJTB1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alamy Stock Photo</a>.</figcaption></figure> <p>Otto’s team of extreme weather scientists are currently working to assess the role of climate change in flooding in Nigeria and neighbouring countries, she tells Carbon Brief:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“There are lots of floods in different parts of western Africa this year and the big question that we are getting closer to having an answer to is: are they all the same event?”</p></blockquote> <p>During west Africa’s rainy season, high levels of precipitation are delivered by the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/703/the-intertropical-convergence-zone" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Intertropical Convergence Zone</a> (ITCZ), a belt of stormy weather that encircles the planet near the equator and brings seasonal rainfall to tropical regions, Otto explains:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“[The ITCZ] has stayed north a bit longer this year than it would normally do, and that is clearly visible in the rainfall; there is above-average rainfall in northern parts of western Africa. We will be hopefully looking into whether there is a climate change signal in that.”</p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Patterns of precipitation can explain a lot about the global climate system. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the striking feature close to the equator. Notice it has a seasonality (shifting north or south).<br><br>Visualization by <a href="https://twitter.com/NASAHyperwall?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NASAHyperwall</a>: <a href="https://t.co/NYl5xQVZBW">https://t.co/NYl5xQVZBW</a> <a href="https://t.co/6wg9gz4OA3">pic.twitter.com/6wg9gz4OA3</a></p>— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1186837344885719040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <p>Flooding across west African nations this year not only highlights the impact of climate change, but also that of poor planning, adds <a href="https://www.daad.de/en/the-daad/what-we-do/sustainable-development/funding-programmes/climapafrica/wg/1/frederick-dapilah/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Frederick Dapilah</a>, a climate researcher from the <a href="https://ubids.edu.gh/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Simon Diedong University of Business and Integrated Development Studies</a> in Ghana, which also faced <a href="https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/articles/cd1qx2d7x5lo" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">severe flooding</a> in October. He tells Carbon Brief:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“The floods experienced in west Africa resulted from extreme rainfall events leading to the overflow of rivers and the spillage of artificial dams. The <a href="https://floodlist.com/africa/ghana-accra-weija-dam-floods-october-2022" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">spillage of the Weija Dam on 3 October 2022</a> led to the submergence of several communities in Accra. Likewise, the spillage of the <a href="https://citinewsroom.com/2022/09/burkina-faso-authorities-begin-spillage-of-bagre-dam/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bagre Dam in Burkina Faso on 4 September 2022</a>, affected about 28 districts and several communities living along the Black and White Volta rivers in northern Ghana. </p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“The take-home message is that, in light of increasing climate change, current adaptation and mitigation interventions in west Africa are failing and are not providing desired outcomes. Hence, transformative adaptation and mitigation measures are urgently needed to protect human lives and property now and in the future.”</p></blockquote> <p>Southern Africa also faced serious flooding in 2022. In April, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-29/death-toll-from-flooding-in-south-africa-s-kzn-rises-to-459" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">459 people</a> were killed and a further 40,000 affected in floods and landslides in the South African provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape.</p> <p>The flood – described as “the biggest tragedy we have ever seen” by South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa – was driven by two days of extreme rainfall, according to a <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-made-extreme-rains-in-2022-south-africa-floods-twice-as-likely/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">snap analysis</a> led by Pinto.</p> <p>The analysis found that this extreme rainfall was made twice as likely by human-caused climate change. Pinto explains:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“The main finding was that climate change contributed to the increase of the heavy precipitation that happened in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. These kinds of events can happen naturally but, because of climate change, they are becoming more intense.”</p></blockquote> <p>The impact of South Africa’s flood was particularly high because it hit “vulnerable populations”, adds Otto:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“In the KwaZulu Natal area, lots of people in informal housing died in the event because there was just no protection.”</p></blockquote> <p>According to the IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Africa.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">most recent assessment</a> of Africa, human-caused climate change has already contributed to an increase in heavy rainfall and flooding across nearly all parts of the continent.</p> <p>With continued climate change, flooding is projected to worsen in every African region, according to the assessment.</p> <p><em><a href="#top" rel="nofollow">Back to top</a></em></p> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="heatwaves"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Heatwaves</h2> <p>Human-caused climate change has led to an increase in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves in every region of the world, according to the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">IPCC</a>.</p> <p>However, the impact of heatwaves on people is not routinely recorded in Africa. According to the EM-DAT database (see map above), there were no recorded heatwave disasters anywhere in Africa this year. (In fact, EM-DAT lists <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-africas-heatwaves-are-a-forgotten-impact-of-climate-change/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">no more than two heatwaves</a> in sub-Saharan Africa since the beginning of the 20th century.)</p> <p>This is despite the fact that many parts of the continent did battle extreme heat in 2022.</p> <p>For example, in July, temperatures reached a <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150083/heatwaves-and-fires-scorch-europe-africa-and-asia" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">record-breaking 48C</a> in Tunis, the capital of Tunisia. This heat helped fan the flames of devastating wildfires (see below). </p> <p>In March, Kenya experienced “unusually hot temperatures both during the day and night”, with temperatures of 40C recorded in the north-western town Lodwar, according to a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8yTJdaKqq0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">local television report</a>.</p> <p>Kenyan meteorologists told the station that the extreme temperatures were driven by the spring “equinox”, a time when the sun crosses the equator, moving north, and so is directly above Kenya . However, they added that the heat appeared even more severe “than usual” because of climate change.</p> <p>More recently, the southern-hemisphere spring months have also seen extreme heat return to many parts of southern Africa, including <a href="https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/heatwave-hottest-days-coming-week-weather-south-africa-breaking-news-10-october-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">South Africa</a>, <a href="https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2022/10/botswana-heatwave-forecast-nationwide-through-at-least-oct-12" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Botswana</a> and <a href="http://www.newsdzezimbabwe.co.uk/2022/08/heatwave-hits-parts-of-zim.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Zimbabwe</a>, according to local news reports. (Otto tells Carbon Brief her team is also considering assessing the influence of climate change on South Africa’s current heat.)</p> <p>Though episodes of extreme heat are happening, their impacts on people are not being recorded – which explains why heatwaves are missing from the EM-DAT database, Pinto says:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“Some people call heatwaves the ‘silent killer’ because we can’t see the impacts. It is easy to see flooding and people drowning and to record their deaths. But when it’s a heatwave and we don’t see the impact with our eyes, it’s difficult to record.</p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“So, if a heatwave happens in, say, October and kills 10 people. We don’t know what caused the death of those people. Probably, it was the increase in temperature, which caused them to go to the hospital and suffer heart failures or strokes, but the people responsible for recording the deaths do not make the association with high temperatures.”</p></blockquote> <p>In addition to impacts going unrecorded, African countries are also much less likely to issue heat warnings or alerts – potentially putting more lives at risk, says Otto:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“We are currently working on a project to try and identify what are meaningful heatwave thresholds so that [African countries] can put out heat warnings for populations because at the moment that just doesn’t exist. There is no awareness of heatwaves.”</p></blockquote> <p>According to the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Africa.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">IPCC</a>, there is <em>high confidence </em>that temperatures across Africa have risen at a faster rate than the global average since the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/challenge-defining-pre-industrial-era/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">pre-industrial era</a> – and that the number of heatwaves across the continent has also increased.</p> <p>In 2018, Carbon Brief <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-african-heatwaves-could-increase-five-fold-with-3c-of-global-warming/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">covered research</a> finding heatwaves in Africa could increase fivefold in a 3C hotter world.</p> <p><em><a href="#top" rel="nofollow">Back to top</a></em></p> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="wildfires"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Wildfires</h2> <p>Several parts of northern and central Africa saw damaging wildfires in 2022.</p> <p>In February, severe forest fires were recorded in the Central African Republic amid high temperatures and drought. According to a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/central-african-republic/central-african-republic-fires-bakala-operation-update-no-1-dref-ndeg-mdrcf028" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">UN OCHA report</a>, the fires forced 500 families to seek emergency shelter, leading to outbreaks of malaria, cholera and polio.</p> <div class="guten-block block-newsletter block-newsletter-block_16863bb2df1e9f41a45bf8626007ed4d "> <div class="container"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-xs-12"> <p class="title">Expert analysis direct to your inbox.</p> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 hidden-xs"> <p class="body" style="padding-top: 0.5em">Get a round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. Find out more about our newsletters <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up" style="text-decoration: underline;">here</a>.</p> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 visible-xs-block"> <p class="body" style="padding-top: 0.5em">Get a round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. Find out more about our newsletters <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up" style="text-decoration: underline;">here</a>.</p> </div> <div class="ml-embedded" data-form="W0jlyL"></div> </div>   </div> </div> <script> (function($) { // Daily brief, signup form switcher jQuery(".block-newsletter-block_16863bb2df1e9f41a45bf8626007ed4d #brief-type-block").change(function() { var dailyURL = "https://www.getrevue.co/profile/CarbonBriefDailyBriefing/add_subscriber"; var weeklyURL = "https://www.getrevue.co/profile/CarbonBriefWeeklyBriefing/add_subscriber"; var action = $(this).val() == "daily" ? dailyURL : weeklyURL; jQuery(".block-newsletter-block_16863bb2df1e9f41a45bf8626007ed4d #revueForm-block").attr("action", action); }); })(jQuery); </script> <p>In July, Tunisia battled intense fires amid temperatures exceeding 40C. According to the <a href="https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/tunisia-scrambles-put-out-fire-threatening-capital" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">New Arab</a>, fires broke out south of the capital city Tunis, forcing several neighbourhoods to evacuate. The fires also “badly damaged” Tunisia’s grain crop, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/heat-wave-fires-damaging-tunisias-grain-harvest-2022-06-27/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Reuters</a>.</p> <p>In August, neighbouring Algeria also experienced severe wildfires amid extreme heat. According to a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/disaster/fr-2022-000297-dza" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">UN OCHA report</a>, more than 100 fires were reported in north-eastern Algeria, killing 44 people and causing a further 2,000 to evacuate. The report continues: </p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“The fires also affected the livelihoods of over 6,000 people, including farmers who have lost dozens of hectares, nearly a thousand fruit trees and more than 400 heads of livestock. According to the figures from the wilayas [states], more than 6,000 hectares were destroyed by the fires. The wilaya of Souk Ahras has lost one-third of its forests.”</p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="684" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-burnt-vehicle-amid-burnt-trees-following-a-wildfire-in-El-Kala-Al-Taref-province-Algeria-18-August-2022..jpg" alt="A burnt vehicle amid burnt trees following a wildfire in El Kala, Al Taref province, Algeria, 18 August 2022." class="wp-image-44048" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-burnt-vehicle-amid-burnt-trees-following-a-wildfire-in-El-Kala-Al-Taref-province-Algeria-18-August-2022..jpg 1024w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-burnt-vehicle-amid-burnt-trees-following-a-wildfire-in-El-Kala-Al-Taref-province-Algeria-18-August-2022.-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-burnt-vehicle-amid-burnt-trees-following-a-wildfire-in-El-Kala-Al-Taref-province-Algeria-18-August-2022.-270x180.jpg 270w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-burnt-vehicle-amid-burnt-trees-following-a-wildfire-in-El-Kala-Al-Taref-province-Algeria-18-August-2022.-768x513.jpg 768w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-burnt-vehicle-amid-burnt-trees-following-a-wildfire-in-El-Kala-Al-Taref-province-Algeria-18-August-2022.-107x71.jpg 107w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-burnt-vehicle-amid-burnt-trees-following-a-wildfire-in-El-Kala-Al-Taref-province-Algeria-18-August-2022.-200x133.jpg 200w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-burnt-vehicle-amid-burnt-trees-following-a-wildfire-in-El-Kala-Al-Taref-province-Algeria-18-August-2022.-420x280.jpg 420w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>A burnt vehicle amid burnt trees following a wildfire in El Kala, Al Taref province, Algeria, 18 August 2022. Credit: Reuters / <a href="https://www.alamy.com/2JPH4HF" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alamy Stock Photo</a>.</figcaption></figure> <p>Though the factors behind every fire are complex, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-climate-change-is-affecting-wildfires-around-the-world/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a body of research</a> shows that climate change is making “fire weather” – hot, dry conditions – more likely to occur globally.</p> <p>In its most <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Africa.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">recent assessment</a> of Africa, the IPCC projects an increase in fire weather in northern, west southern and east southern regions of the continent.</p> <p><em><a href="#top" rel="nofollow">Back to top</a></em></p> <div style="height:30px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <div class="page-anchor" id="drought"></div> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Drought and famine</h2> <p>Severe drought continued to affect the lives of millions of people across Africa this year, particularly in eastern countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia, Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya, as well as in Chad and Niger.</p> <p>Carbon Brief analysis of EM-DAT data shows that drought has affected eight million people in Ethiopia alone in 2022 – and caused 2,500 deaths in Uganda.</p> <p>According to a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/threat-starvation-looms-east-africa-after-four-failed-rainy-seasons" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">UN OCHA</a> report, the current situation in east Africa is “unprecedented”.</p> <p>Five consecutive rainy seasons have failed – something not seen for at least 40 years, according to the UN <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/greater-horn-of-africa-faces-5th-failed-rainy-season" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">World Meteorological Organization</a>.</p> <p>The 2022 March-May rain season was the driest on record, “devastating livelihoods and driving sharp increases in food, water and nutrition insecurity”, according to the UN OCHA report. It continues:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“An estimated 3.6m livestock have died in Kenya and Ethiopia. In the worst-affected areas of Somalia, one-out-of-three livestock have perished since mid-2021. Over a million people have been displaced in Somalia and southern Ethiopia.”</p></blockquote> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-man-walks-in-front-of-a-sandstorm-in-Dollow-Jubaland-Somalia-14-April-2022..jpg" alt="A man walks in front of a sandstorm in Dollow, Jubaland, Somalia, 14 April 2022." class="wp-image-44049" srcset="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-man-walks-in-front-of-a-sandstorm-in-Dollow-Jubaland-Somalia-14-April-2022..jpg 1024w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-man-walks-in-front-of-a-sandstorm-in-Dollow-Jubaland-Somalia-14-April-2022.-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-man-walks-in-front-of-a-sandstorm-in-Dollow-Jubaland-Somalia-14-April-2022.-270x180.jpg 270w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-man-walks-in-front-of-a-sandstorm-in-Dollow-Jubaland-Somalia-14-April-2022.-768x512.jpg 768w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-man-walks-in-front-of-a-sandstorm-in-Dollow-Jubaland-Somalia-14-April-2022.-107x71.jpg 107w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-man-walks-in-front-of-a-sandstorm-in-Dollow-Jubaland-Somalia-14-April-2022.-200x133.jpg 200w, https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/A-man-walks-in-front-of-a-sandstorm-in-Dollow-Jubaland-Somalia-14-April-2022.-420x280.jpg 420w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>A man walks in front of a sandstorm in Dollow, Jubaland, Somalia, 14 April 2022. Credit: ZUMA Press, Inc. / <a href="https://www.alamy.com/2J6B5F8" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alamy Stock Photo</a>.</figcaption></figure> <p>It estimates that 20 million people in the region faced high acute food insecurity by September – around twice the population of Belgium.</p> <p>“Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya have also recorded a significantly higher number of severely malnourished children admitted for treatment in the first quarter of 2022 compared to past years,” the report says.</p> <p>There has not been a study examining the role of climate change in east Africa’s current drought. However, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-not-the-main-driver-of-madagascar-food-crisis-scientists-find/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">previous research</a> into Madagascar’s 2021 food crisis found that climate change played a minor role in comparison to other factors such as poverty and poor infrastructure. Otto tells Carbon Brief:</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“I think in eastern Africa the story is very similar. We haven’t really looked at west Africa, so that’s something we just don’t know. In southern Africa, it is different and there is definitely a climate change signal in the droughts.”</p></blockquote> <p>According to the IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Africa.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">most recent assessment</a> of the continent, there has been an observed decrease in mean precipitation in northeastern Africa. However, there has not been a recorded increase in droughts.</p> <p>In central and west Africa, there has been an observed increase in <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-climate-change-is-already-making-droughts-worse/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">agricultural and ecological droughts</a>, according to the IPCC. In southern Africa, there has been a recorded increase in droughts and dryness – and this is projected to worsen with further global warming.</p> <p><em><a href="#top" rel="nofollow">Back to top</a></em></p> <div class="guten-block block-related-articles-slider block-related-articles-slider-block_62505f48e504b5d4bb7f7d4cc4354e88 "> <div class="container"> <div class="row col-edges related-slider"> <div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-3"> <div class="card card-category"> <picture class="thumbnail-wide visible-lg-block"> <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hero-300x200.jpg" /></a> </picture> <div class="content mh"> <p class="text-header-s content"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world</a></p> <div class="meta-info d-flex justify-content-start align-items-center"> <p class="text-tag-s">Attribution</p> <span class="pipe-spacer">|</span> <p class="text-tag-meta">18.11.24</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-3"> <div class="card card-category"> <picture class="thumbnail-wide visible-lg-block"> <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/west-africas-deadly-rainfall-in-2022-made-80-times-more-likely-by-climate-change/"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2K512RA-300x200.jpg" /></a> </picture> <div class="content mh"> <p class="text-header-s content"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/west-africas-deadly-rainfall-in-2022-made-80-times-more-likely-by-climate-change/">West Africa’s deadly rainfall in 2022 made ‘80 times more likely’ by climate change</a></p> <div class="meta-info d-flex justify-content-start align-items-center"> <p class="text-tag-s">Attribution</p> <span class="pipe-spacer">|</span> <p class="text-tag-meta">16.11.22</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-3"> <div class="card card-category"> <picture class="thumbnail-wide visible-lg-block"> <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-made-2022s-northern-hemisphere-droughts-at-least-20-times-more-likely/"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Pagodas-on-Luoxingdun-Island-that-usually-remain-partially-submerged-under-the-water-of-Poyang-Lake-Lushan-Jiangxi-province-China-24-August-2022.-copy-300x200.jpg" /></a> </picture> <div class="content mh"> <p class="text-header-s content"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-made-2022s-northern-hemisphere-droughts-at-least-20-times-more-likely/">Climate change made 2022’s northern-hemisphere droughts ‘at least 20 times’ more likely</a></p> <div class="meta-info d-flex justify-content-start align-items-center"> <p class="text-tag-s">Attribution</p> <span class="pipe-spacer">|</span> <p class="text-tag-meta">05.10.22</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-3"> <div class="card card-category"> <picture class="thumbnail-wide visible-lg-block"> <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/declining-resilience-pushing-amazon-rainforest-towards-tipping-point/"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/amazon-drought-FTPJG9-300x199.jpg" /></a> </picture> <div class="content mh"> <p class="text-header-s content"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/declining-resilience-pushing-amazon-rainforest-towards-tipping-point/">Declining ‘resilience’ pushing Amazon rainforest towards tipping point</a></p> <div class="meta-info d-flex justify-content-start align-items-center"> <p class="text-tag-s">Drought</p> <span class="pipe-spacer">|</span> <p class="text-tag-meta">07.03.22</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <script> jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('.block-related-articles-slider-block_62505f48e504b5d4bb7f7d4cc4354e88 .mh').matchHeight({ byRow: false }); 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