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href="https://az.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptiv_g%C3%B6zl%C9%99ntil%C9%99r" title="Adaptiv gözləntilər – Azerbaijani" lang="az" hreflang="az" data-title="Adaptiv gözləntilər" data-language-autonym="Azərbaycanca" data-language-local-name="Azerbaijani" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Azərbaycanca</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptivn%C3%AD_o%C4%8Dek%C3%A1v%C3%A1n%C3%AD" title="Adaptivní očekávání – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Adaptivní očekávání" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-da mw-list-item"><a href="https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_forventninger" title="Adaptive forventninger – Danish" lang="da" hreflang="da" data-title="Adaptive forventninger" data-language-autonym="Dansk" data-language-local-name="Danish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Dansk</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_Erwartungen" title="Adaptive Erwartungen – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Adaptive Erwartungen" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expectativas_adaptativas" title="Expectativas adaptativas – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Expectativas adaptativas" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-eu mw-list-item"><a href="https://eu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igurikimen_moldatzaile" title="Igurikimen moldatzaile – Basque" lang="eu" hreflang="eu" data-title="Igurikimen moldatzaile" data-language-autonym="Euskara" data-language-local-name="Basque" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Euskara</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA_%D8%AA%D8%B7%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%82%DB%8C" title="انتظارات تطبیقی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="انتظارات تطبیقی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticipation_adaptative" title="Anticipation adaptative – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Anticipation adaptative" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%A0%81%EC%9D%91%EC%A0%81_%EA%B8%B0%EB%8C%80" title="적응적 기대 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="적응적 기대" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aspettative_adattive" title="Aspettative adattive – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Aspettative adattive" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lo mw-list-item"><a href="https://lo.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%BA%81%E0%BA%B2%E0%BA%99%E0%BA%84%E0%BA%B2%E0%BA%94%E0%BA%AB%E0%BA%A7%E0%BA%B1%E0%BA%87%E0%BB%81%E0%BA%9A%E0%BA%9A%E0%BA%94%E0%BA%B1%E0%BA%94%E0%BA%AA%E0%BA%BB%E0%BA%A1" title="ການຄາດຫວັງແບບດັດສົມ – Lao" lang="lo" hreflang="lo" data-title="ການຄາດຫວັງແບບດັດສົມ" data-language-autonym="ລາວ" data-language-local-name="Lao" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>ລາວ</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-nl mw-list-item"><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptieve_verwachtingen" title="Adaptieve verwachtingen – Dutch" lang="nl" hreflang="nl" data-title="Adaptieve verwachtingen" data-language-autonym="Nederlands" data-language-local-name="Dutch" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Nederlands</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uz mw-list-item"><a href="https://uz.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptiv_kutilmalar" title="Adaptiv kutilmalar – Uzbek" lang="uz" hreflang="uz" data-title="Adaptiv kutilmalar" data-language-autonym="Oʻzbekcha / ўзбекча" data-language-local-name="Uzbek" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Oʻzbekcha / ўзбекча</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hipoteza_adaptacyjnych_oczekiwa%C5%84" title="Hipoteza adaptacyjnych oczekiwań – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Hipoteza adaptacyjnych oczekiwań" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Polski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expectativas_adaptativas" title="Expectativas adaptativas – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Expectativas adaptativas" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="Portuguese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Português</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A2%D0%B5%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%85_%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9" title="Теория адаптивных ожиданий – Russian" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="Теория адаптивных ожиданий" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="Russian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Русский</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-tr mw-list-item"><a href="https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptif_beklentiler" title="Adaptif beklentiler – Turkish" lang="tr" hreflang="tr" data-title="Adaptif beklentiler" data-language-autonym="Türkçe" data-language-local-name="Turkish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Türkçe</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%90%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BD%D1%96_%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%96%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F" title="Адаптивні сподівання – Ukrainian" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Адаптивні сподівання" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="Ukrainian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Українська</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-vi mw-list-item"><a href="https://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gi%E1%BA%A3_thuy%E1%BA%BFt_k%E1%BB%B3_v%E1%BB%8Dng_th%C3%ADch_%E1%BB%A9ng" title="Giả thuyết kỳ vọng thích ứng – Vietnamese" lang="vi" hreflang="vi" data-title="Giả thuyết kỳ vọng thích ứng" data-language-autonym="Tiếng Việt" data-language-local-name="Vietnamese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Tiếng Việt</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%80%82%E5%BA%94%E6%80%A7%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F" title="适应性预期 – Chinese" lang="zh" hreflang="zh" data-title="适应性预期" data-language-autonym="中文" data-language-local-name="Chinese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>中文</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q1151466#sitelinks-wikipedia" title="Edit interlanguage links" class="wbc-editpage">Edit links</a></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> 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.sidebar-subgroup{width:100%;margin:0;border-spacing:0}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-left{float:left;clear:left;margin:0.5em 1em 1em 0}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-none{float:none;clear:both;margin:0.5em 1em 1em 0}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-outer-title{padding:0 0.4em 0.2em;font-size:125%;line-height:1.2em;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-top-image{padding:0.4em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-top-caption,.mw-parser-output .sidebar-pretitle-with-top-image,.mw-parser-output .sidebar-caption{padding:0.2em 0.4em 0;line-height:1.2em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-pretitle{padding:0.4em 0.4em 0;line-height:1.2em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-title,.mw-parser-output .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{padding:0.2em 0.8em;font-size:145%;line-height:1.2em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{padding:0.1em 0.4em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-image{padding:0.2em 0.4em 0.4em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-heading{padding:0.1em 0.4em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-content{padding:0 0.5em 0.4em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-content-with-subgroup{padding:0.1em 0.4em 0.2em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-above,.mw-parser-output .sidebar-below{padding:0.3em 0.8em;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-collapse .sidebar-above,.mw-parser-output .sidebar-collapse .sidebar-below{border-top:1px solid #aaa;border-bottom:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-navbar{text-align:right;font-size:115%;padding:0 0.4em 0.4em}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-list-title{padding:0 0.4em;text-align:left;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.6em;font-size:105%}.mw-parser-output .sidebar-list-title-c{padding:0 0.4em;text-align:center;margin:0 3.3em}@media(max-width:640px){body.mediawiki .mw-parser-output .sidebar{width:100%!important;clear:both;float:none!important;margin-left:0!important;margin-right:0!important}}body.skin--responsive .mw-parser-output .sidebar a>img{max-width:none!important}@media screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-list-title,html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle{background:transparent!important}html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .sidebar:not(.notheme) .sidebar-title-with-pretitle a{color:var(--color-progressive)!important}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .sidebar{display:none!important}}</style><table class="sidebar sidebar-collapse nomobile nowraplinks"><tbody><tr><td class="sidebar-pretitle">Part of <a href="/wiki/Category:Macroeconomics" title="Category:Macroeconomics">a series</a> on</td></tr><tr><th class="sidebar-title-with-pretitle"><a href="/wiki/Macroeconomics" title="Macroeconomics">Macroeconomics</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-image" style="padding-top:0.6em;"><span class="notpageimage" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Ec_8_(26088200676)_(cropped).jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Federal Reserve" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/220px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="150" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/330px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/440px-Ec_8_%2826088200676%29_%28cropped%29.jpg 2x" data-file-width="2400" data-file-height="1633" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Basic concepts</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Aggregate_demand" title="Aggregate demand">Aggregate demand</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Aggregate_supply" title="Aggregate supply">Aggregate supply</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Business_cycle" title="Business cycle">Business cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate" title="Compound annual growth rate">CAGR</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Deflation" title="Deflation">Deflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demand_shock" title="Demand shock">Demand shock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disinflation" title="Disinflation">Disinflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effective_demand" title="Effective demand">Effective demand</a></li> <li>Expectations <ul><li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Adaptive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rational_expectations" title="Rational expectations">Rational</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Financial_crisis" title="Financial crisis">Financial crisis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_growth" title="Economic growth">Growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inflation" title="Inflation">Inflation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Demand-pull_inflation" title="Demand-pull inflation">Demand-pull</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cost-push_inflation" title="Cost-push inflation">Cost-push</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Interest_rate" title="Interest rate">Interest rate</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Investment_(macroeconomics)" title="Investment (macroeconomics)">Investment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Liquidity_trap" title="Liquidity trap">Liquidity trap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Measures_of_national_income_and_output" title="Measures of national income and output">Measures of national income and output</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gross_domestic_product" title="Gross domestic product">GDP</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gross_national_income" title="Gross national income">GNI</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_national_income" title="Net national income">NNI</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Microfoundations" title="Microfoundations">Microfoundations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money" title="Money">Money</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Endogenous_money" title="Endogenous money">Endogenous</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money_creation" title="Money creation">Money creation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Demand_for_money" title="Demand for money">Demand for money</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Liquidity_preference" title="Liquidity preference">Liquidity preference</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Money_supply" title="Money supply">Money supply</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_accounts" title="National accounts">National accounts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/System_of_National_Accounts" title="System of National Accounts">SNA</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nominal_rigidity" title="Nominal rigidity">Nominal rigidity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Price_level" title="Price level">Price level</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recession" title="Recession">Recession</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shrinkflation" title="Shrinkflation">Shrinkflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stagflation" title="Stagflation">Stagflation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supply_shock" title="Supply shock">Supply shock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_saving" title="National saving">Saving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Unemployment" title="Unemployment">Unemployment</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Policies</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fiscal_policy" title="Fiscal policy">Fiscal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_policy" title="Monetary policy">Monetary</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Commercial_policy" title="Commercial policy">Commercial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Central_bank" title="Central bank">Central bank</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Universal_basic_income" title="Universal basic income">Universal basic income</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Models</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IS%E2%80%93LM_model" title="IS–LM model">IS–LM</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/AD%E2%80%93AS_model" title="AD–AS model">AD–AS</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Keynesian_cross" title="Keynesian cross">Keynesian cross</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multiplier_(economics)" title="Multiplier (economics)">Multiplier</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Accelerator_effect" title="Accelerator effect">Accelerator</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Phillips_curve" title="Phillips curve">Phillips curve</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arrow%E2%80%93Debreu_model" title="Arrow–Debreu model">Arrow–Debreu</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Harrod%E2%80%93Domar_model" title="Harrod–Domar model">Harrod–Domar</a>Нмиф</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Solow%E2%80%93Swan_model" title="Solow–Swan model">Solow–Swan</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ramsey%E2%80%93Cass%E2%80%93Koopmans_model" title="Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans model">Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overlapping_generations_model" title="Overlapping generations model">Overlapping generations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/General_equilibrium_theory" title="General equilibrium theory">General equilibrium</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Dynamic_stochastic_general_equilibrium" title="Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium">DSGE</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Endogenous_growth_theory" title="Endogenous growth theory">Endogenous growth</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Matching_theory_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Matching theory (economics)">Matching theory</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mundell%E2%80%93Fleming_model" title="Mundell–Fleming model">Mundell–Fleming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overshooting_model" title="Overshooting model">Overshooting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/NAIRU" title="NAIRU">NAIRU</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">Related fields</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Econometrics" title="Econometrics">Econometrics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_statistics" title="Economic statistics">Economic statistics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_economics" title="Monetary economics">Monetary economics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Development_economics" title="Development economics">Development economics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/International_economics" title="International economics">International economics</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)"><a href="/wiki/History_of_macroeconomic_thought" title="History of macroeconomic thought">Schools</a></div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"><i>Mainstream</i> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Keynesian_economics" title="Keynesian economics">Keynesian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Neo-Keynesian_economics" class="mw-redirect" title="Neo-Keynesian economics">Neo-</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_Keynesian_economics" title="New Keynesian economics">New</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Monetarism" title="Monetarism">Monetarism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_classical_macroeconomics" title="New classical macroeconomics">New classical</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Real_business-cycle_theory" title="Real business-cycle theory">Real business-cycle theory</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Stockholm_school_(economics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Stockholm school (economics)">Stockholm</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Supply-side_economics" title="Supply-side economics">Supply-side</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/New_neoclassical_synthesis" title="New neoclassical synthesis">New neoclassical synthesis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Saltwater_and_freshwater_economics" title="Saltwater and freshwater economics">Saltwater and freshwater</a></li></ul> <p><i>Heterodox</i> </p> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Austrian_School" class="mw-redirect" title="Austrian School">Austrian</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Chartalism" title="Chartalism">Chartalism</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory" title="Modern monetary theory">Modern monetary theory</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_economics" title="Ecological economics">Ecological</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post-Keynesian_economics" title="Post-Keynesian economics">Post-Keynesian</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Monetary_circuit_theory" title="Monetary circuit theory">Circuitism</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disequilibrium_macroeconomics" title="Disequilibrium macroeconomics">Disequilibrium</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Marxian_economics" title="Marxian economics">Marxian</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Market_monetarism" title="Market monetarism">Market monetarism</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)"><a href="/wiki/Category:Macroeconomists" title="Category:Macroeconomists">People</a></div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Quesnay" title="François Quesnay">François Quesnay</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adam_Smith" title="Adam Smith">Adam Smith</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus" title="Thomas Robert Malthus">Thomas Robert Malthus</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Karl_Marx" title="Karl Marx">Karl Marx</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/L%C3%A9on_Walras" title="Léon Walras">Léon Walras</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Knut_Wicksell" title="Knut Wicksell">Knut Wicksell</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Irving_Fisher" title="Irving Fisher">Irving Fisher</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wesley_Clair_Mitchell" title="Wesley Clair Mitchell">Wesley Clair Mitchell</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes" title="John Maynard Keynes">John Maynard Keynes</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Alvin_Hansen" title="Alvin Hansen">Alvin Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Micha%C5%82_Kalecki" title="Michał Kalecki">Michał Kalecki</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Gunnar_Myrdal" title="Gunnar Myrdal">Gunnar Myrdal</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Simon_Kuznets" title="Simon Kuznets">Simon Kuznets</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Joan_Robinson" title="Joan Robinson">Joan Robinson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek" title="Friedrich Hayek">Friedrich Hayek</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/John_Hicks" title="John Hicks">John Hicks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Richard_Stone" title="Richard Stone">Richard Stone</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hyman_Minsky" title="Hyman Minsky">Hyman Minsky</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Milton_Friedman" title="Milton Friedman">Milton Friedman</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paul_Samuelson" title="Paul Samuelson">Paul Samuelson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lawrence_Klein" title="Lawrence Klein">Lawrence Klein</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Edmund_Phelps" title="Edmund Phelps">Edmund Phelps</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Robert_Lucas_Jr." title="Robert Lucas Jr.">Robert Lucas Jr.</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Edward_C._Prescott" title="Edward C. Prescott">Edward C. Prescott</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Peter_Diamond" title="Peter Diamond">Peter Diamond</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/William_Nordhaus" title="William Nordhaus">William Nordhaus</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Joseph_Stiglitz" title="Joseph Stiglitz">Joseph Stiglitz</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Thomas_J._Sargent" title="Thomas J. Sargent">Thomas J. Sargent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paul_Krugman" title="Paul Krugman">Paul Krugman</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greg_Mankiw" title="Greg Mankiw">N. Gregory Mankiw</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content"> <div class="sidebar-list mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"><div class="sidebar-list-title" style="background:transparent;border-top:1px solid #aaa;text-align:center;;color: var(--color-base)">See also</div><div class="sidebar-list-content mw-collapsible-content hlist"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Macroeconomic_model" title="Macroeconomic model">Macroeconomic model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_important_publications_in_economics#Macroeconomics" title="List of important publications in economics">Publications in macroeconomics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics" title="Economics">Economics</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Applied_economics" title="Applied economics">Applied</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Microeconomics" title="Microeconomics">Microeconomics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_economy" title="Political economy">Political economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mathematical_economics" title="Mathematical economics">Mathematical economics</a></li></ul> </div></div></td> </tr><tr><td class="sidebar-below plainlist"> <ul><li><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/16px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="8" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/24px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Bills_and_coins.svg/32px-Bills_and_coins.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="960" data-file-height="465" /></span></span> </span><a href="/wiki/Portal:Money" title="Portal:Money">Money portal</a></li> <li><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Emblem-money.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Emblem-money.svg/16px-Emblem-money.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Emblem-money.svg/24px-Emblem-money.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Emblem-money.svg/32px-Emblem-money.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="48" data-file-height="48" /></a></span> </span><a href="/wiki/Portal:Business" title="Portal:Business">Business portal</a></li></ul></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-navbar"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239400231">.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:inline;font-size:88%;font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .navbar-collapse{float:left;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .navbar-boxtext{word-spacing:0}.mw-parser-output .navbar ul{display:inline-block;white-space:nowrap;line-height:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::before{margin-right:-0.125em;content:"[ "}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::after{margin-left:-0.125em;content:" ]"}.mw-parser-output .navbar li{word-spacing:-0.125em}.mw-parser-output .navbar a>span,.mw-parser-output .navbar a>abbr{text-decoration:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-mini abbr{font-variant:small-caps;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none;cursor:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-full{font-size:114%;margin:0 7em}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-mini{font-size:114%;margin:0 4em}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}}@media print{.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:none!important}}</style><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Macroeconomics_sidebar" title="Template:Macroeconomics sidebar"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Macroeconomics_sidebar" title="Template talk:Macroeconomics sidebar"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Macroeconomics_sidebar" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Macroeconomics sidebar"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p>In <a href="/wiki/Economics" title="Economics">economics</a>, <b>adaptive expectations</b> is a hypothesized process by which people form their expectations about what will happen in the future based on what has happened in the past. For example, if people want to create an expectation of the inflation rate in the future, they can refer to past inflation rates to infer some consistencies and could derive a more accurate expectation the more years they consider. </p><p>One simple version of adaptive expectations is stated in the following equation, where <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle p^{e}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msup> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>e</mi> </mrow> </msup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle p^{e}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/03d8780732f14fd53dea93193e8d041521170697" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; margin-left: -0.089ex; width:2.257ex; height:2.676ex;" alt="{\displaystyle p^{e}}"></span> is the next year's <a href="/wiki/Expected_inflation" class="mw-redirect" title="Expected inflation">rate of inflation that is currently expected</a>; <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle p_{-1}^{e}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msubsup> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>e</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle p_{-1}^{e}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/c31d7e91c940c6884474ac8588b3bd16f3b7b821" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.171ex; margin-left: -0.089ex; width:3.592ex; height:3.009ex;" alt="{\displaystyle p_{-1}^{e}}"></span> is this year's rate of inflation that was expected last year; and <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle p}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>p</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle p}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/81eac1e205430d1f40810df36a0edffdc367af36" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; margin-left: -0.089ex; width:1.259ex; height:2.009ex;" alt="{\displaystyle p}"></span> is this year's actual rate of inflation: </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle p^{e}=p_{-1}^{e}+\lambda (p-p_{-1}^{e})}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msup> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>e</mi> </mrow> </msup> <mo>=</mo> <msubsup> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>e</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> <mo>+</mo> <mi>λ</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>p</mi> <mo>−</mo> <msubsup> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>e</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle p^{e}=p_{-1}^{e}+\lambda (p-p_{-1}^{e})}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e074a0ca8200dbc61f4bda122ee415a9db70d0fe" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.171ex; margin-left: -0.089ex; width:22.375ex; height:3.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle p^{e}=p_{-1}^{e}+\lambda (p-p_{-1}^{e})}"></span></dd></dl> <p>where <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \lambda }"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>λ</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \lambda }</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/b43d0ea3c9c025af1be9128e62a18fa74bedda2a" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:1.355ex; height:2.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \lambda }"></span> is between 0 and 1.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This says that current expectations of future inflation reflect past expectations and an "error-adjustment" term, in which current expectations are raised (or lowered) according to the gap between actual inflation and previous expectations. The error-adjustment term, also called <i>partial adjustment</i>, allows for variations in inflation rates over the previous years, especially years that have abnormally high or low rates. </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \lambda (p-p_{-1}^{e})}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>λ</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>p</mi> <mo>−</mo> <msubsup> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mo>−</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>e</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \lambda (p-p_{-1}^{e})}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/891be93c310d39ecd620788bb0528c8ad30172ef" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.171ex; width:10.677ex; height:3.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \lambda (p-p_{-1}^{e})}"></span></dd></dl> <p>The above term is the <i>partial adjustment</i> error term, this term allows for variances that occur between actual values and expected values. The importance of considering the error prevents over and under expecting values of in the above example inflation rates. The adjustment means that the expectation can tend toward the direction of the future expected value that would be closer to the actual value, this allows a prediction to be made and consideration to be added or removed so as to be accurate of the future expectation. This consideration or error term is what allows the predicted value to be adaptable, thus creating an equation that is <i>adaptive</i> of the expectation being inferred. </p><p>The theory of adaptive expectations can be applied to all previous periods so that current inflationary expectations equal: </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle p_{t}^{e}=\lambda \sum _{j=0}^{\infty }(1-\lambda )^{j}p_{t-j}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msubsup> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>t</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>e</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> <mo>=</mo> <mi>λ</mi> <munderover> <mo>∑</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>j</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi mathvariant="normal">∞</mi> </mrow> </munderover> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>−</mo> <mi>λ</mi> <msup> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msup> <msub> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>t</mi> <mo>−</mo> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle p_{t}^{e}=\lambda \sum _{j=0}^{\infty }(1-\lambda )^{j}p_{t-j}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/d3832262b999cd6ae59c1792c8aca354dd17b142" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -3.338ex; margin-left: -0.089ex; width:22.481ex; height:7.176ex;" alt="{\displaystyle p_{t}^{e}=\lambda \sum _{j=0}^{\infty }(1-\lambda )^{j}p_{t-j}}"></span></dd></dl> <p>where <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle p_{t-j}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <msub> <mi>p</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>t</mi> <mo>−</mo> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle p_{t-j}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/e27e7f225ef3b39412bec3bd095af0c35f86457e" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; margin-left: -0.089ex; width:4.041ex; height:2.343ex;" alt="{\displaystyle p_{t-j}}"></span> equals actual inflation <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle j}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi>j</mi> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle j}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/2f461e54f5c093e92a55547b9764291390f0b5d0" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.671ex; margin-left: -0.027ex; width:0.985ex; height:2.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle j}"></span> years in the past.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The adding of a <a href="/wiki/Time_series" title="Time series">time series</a> portion to the expectation equations accounts for multiple previous years and their respective rates in forecasting like the above example of the future inflation rate. Thus, current expected inflation reflects a weighted average of all past inflation rates, where the weights get smaller and smaller as we move further in to the past. The initial previous year has the highest weighting and the subsequent years take lesser weighting the further back the equation accounts for. </p><p>When an agent makes a forecasting error (as in incorrectly recording a value or mistyping), the stochastic shock will cause the agent to incorrectly forecast the price expectation level again even if the price level experiences no further shocks, since the previous expectations only ever incorporates part of their errors. The backward nature of expectation formulation and the resultant systematic errors made by agents (see <a href="/wiki/Cobweb_model" title="Cobweb model">cobweb model</a>) had become unsatisfactory to economists such as <a href="/wiki/John_Muth" title="John Muth">John Muth</a>, who was pivotal in the development of an alternative model of how expectations are formed, called <a href="/wiki/Rational_expectations" title="Rational expectations">rational expectations</a>. The use of rational expectations have largely replaced adaptive expectations in macroeconomic theory since its assumptions rely on an optimal expectations approach which is consistent with economic theory. However, it must be stressed that confronting adaptive expectations and rational expectations aren't necessarily justified by either use, in other words, there are situations in which following the adaptive scheme is a rational response. </p><p>The first use adaptive expectations hypothesis was to describe agent behavior in <i>The Purchasing Power of Money</i> by <a href="/wiki/Irving_Fisher" title="Irving Fisher">Irving Fisher</a> (1911), then later used to describe models such as <a href="/wiki/Hyperinflation" title="Hyperinflation">hyperinflation</a> by Philip Cagan (1956).<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Adaptive expectations were instrumental in the <a href="/wiki/Consumption_function" title="Consumption function">consumption function</a> (1957) and <a href="/wiki/Phillips_curve" title="Phillips curve">Phillips curve</a> outlined by <a href="/wiki/Milton_Friedman" title="Milton Friedman">Milton Friedman</a>. Friedman suggests that workers form adaptive expectations of the inflation rate, the government can easily surprise them through unexpected monetary policy changes. As agents are trapped by the <a href="/wiki/Money_illusion" title="Money illusion">money illusion</a>, they are unable to correctly perceive price and wage dynamics, so based on Friedman's theory, unemployment can always be reduced through monetary expansions. If the government chooses to fix a low unemployment rate the result is an increasing level of inflation for an extended period of time. However, in this framework, it is clear why and how adaptive expectations are problematic. Agents are arbitrarily supposed to ignore sources of information which, otherwise, would affect their expectations. For example, government announcements are such sources. Agents are expected to modify their expectations and break with the former trends when changes in economic policy necessitate it. This is the reason why the theory of adaptive expectations is often regarded as a deviation from the rational tradition of economics.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Adaptive_expectations&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Policy_ineffectiveness_proposition" class="mw-redirect" title="Policy ineffectiveness proposition">Policy ineffectiveness proposition</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Problem_of_induction" title="Problem of induction">Problem of induction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rational_expectations" title="Rational expectations">Rational expectations</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy" title="Self-fulfilling prophecy">Self-fulfilling prophecy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cobweb_model" title="Cobweb model">Cobweb model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Phillips_curve" title="Phillips curve">Phillips curve</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Consumption_function" title="Consumption function">Consumption function</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Adaptive_expectations&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFEvansHonkapohja2001" class="citation book cs1">Evans, G.W.; Honkapohja, S. (2001). "Expectations, Economics of". <i>International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences</i>. pp. 5060–5067. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2FB0-08-043076-7%2F02245-2">10.1016/B0-08-043076-7/02245-2</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-08-043076-8" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-08-043076-8"><bdi>978-0-08-043076-8</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Expectations%2C+Economics+of&rft.btitle=International+Encyclopedia+of+the+Social+%26+Behavioral+Sciences&rft.pages=5060-5067&rft.date=2001&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1016%2FB0-08-043076-7%2F02245-2&rft.isbn=978-0-08-043076-8&rft.aulast=Evans&rft.aufirst=G.W.&rft.au=Honkapohja%2C+S.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAdaptive+expectations" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMishkin2019" class="citation book cs1">Mishkin, Frederic (2019). <i>Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets</i> (12 ed.). United States: Pearson. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-13-473382-1" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-13-473382-1"><bdi>978-0-13-473382-1</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Economics+of+Money%2C+Banking+and+Financial+Markets&rft.place=United+States&rft.edition=12&rft.pub=Pearson&rft.date=2019&rft.isbn=978-0-13-473382-1&rft.aulast=Mishkin&rft.aufirst=Frederic&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAdaptive+expectations" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMollik" class="citation web cs1">Mollik, Andrea V. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/applied-and-social-sciences-magazines/adaptive-expectations">"Adaptive Expectations"</a>. <i>Encyclopedia.com</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210426034048/https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/applied-and-social-sciences-magazines/adaptive-expectations">Archived</a> from the original on 2021-04-26<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">16 April</span> 2021</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Encyclopedia.com&rft.atitle=Adaptive+Expectations&rft.aulast=Mollik&rft.aufirst=Andrea+V.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.encyclopedia.com%2Fsocial-sciences%2Fapplied-and-social-sciences-magazines%2Fadaptive-expectations&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAdaptive+expectations" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGalbács2015" class="citation book cs1">Galbács, Peter (2015). <i>The Theory of New Classical Macroeconomics. A Positive Critique</i>. Contributions to Economics. Heidelberg/New York/Dordrecht/London: Springer. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2F978-3-319-17578-2">10.1007/978-3-319-17578-2</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-3-319-17578-2" title="Special:BookSources/978-3-319-17578-2"><bdi>978-3-319-17578-2</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+Theory+of+New+Classical+Macroeconomics.+A+Positive+Critique&rft.place=Heidelberg%2FNew+York%2FDordrecht%2FLondon&rft.series=Contributions+to+Economics&rft.pub=Springer&rft.date=2015&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1007%2F978-3-319-17578-2&rft.isbn=978-3-319-17578-2&rft.aulast=Galb%C3%A1cs&rft.aufirst=Peter&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAdaptive+expectations" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="General_references">General references</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Adaptive_expectations&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: General references"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFEvansHonkapohja2001" class="citation book cs1">Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo (2001-01-28). <i>Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics</i>. Princeton University Press. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-691-04921-2" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-691-04921-2"><bdi>978-0-691-04921-2</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Learning+and+Expectations+in+Macroeconomics&rft.pub=Princeton+University+Press&rft.date=2001-01-28&rft.isbn=978-0-691-04921-2&rft.aulast=Evans&rft.aufirst=George+W.&rft.au=Honkapohja%2C+Seppo&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AAdaptive+expectations" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236075235">.mw-parser-output .navbox{box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #a2a9b1;width:100%;clear:both;font-size:88%;text-align:center;padding:1px;margin:1em auto 0}.mw-parser-output .navbox 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