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<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en"><head><link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin=""> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="initial-scale=1.0, width=device-width"> <meta name="google-site-verification" content="L96hBHCVhh7pYEsPVWJU4rgb7GmEl3iWgTIfTZsE0Lw"> <title>The coming technological singularity: How to survive in the post-human era - NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</title> <meta name="description" content="The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur): (1) the development of computers that are 'awake' and superhumanly intelligent (to date, most controversy in the area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is 'yes, we can', then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter); (2) large computer networks (and their associated users) may 'wake up' as a superhumanly intelligent entity; (3) computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent; and (4) biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect. The first three possibilities depend in large part on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years."> <base href="/"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"> <link rel="icon" type="image/x-icon" href="favicon.ico"> <style type="text/css">@font-face{font-family:'Roboto';font-style:normal;font-weight:300;font-display:swap;src:url(https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v32/KFOlCnqEu92Fr1MmSU5fCRc4AMP6lbBP.woff2) format('woff2');unicode-range:U+0460-052F, U+1C80-1C8A, U+20B4, U+2DE0-2DFF, U+A640-A69F, U+FE2E-FE2F;}@font-face{font-family:'Roboto';font-style:normal;font-weight:300;font-display:swap;src:url(https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v32/KFOlCnqEu92Fr1MmSU5fABc4AMP6lbBP.woff2) format('woff2');unicode-range:U+0301, U+0400-045F, U+0490-0491, U+04B0-04B1, U+2116;}@font-face{font-family:'Roboto';font-style:normal;font-weight:300;font-display:swap;src:url(https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v32/KFOlCnqEu92Fr1MmSU5fCBc4AMP6lbBP.woff2) 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.mat-card-title{margin-bottom:12px}.mat-card-header-text{margin:0 16px}.mat-card-avatar{height:40px;width:40px;border-radius:50%;flex-shrink:0;object-fit:cover}.mat-card-title-group{display:flex;justify-content:space-between}.mat-card-sm-image{width:80px;height:80px}.mat-card-md-image{width:112px;height:112px}.mat-card-lg-image{width:152px;height:152px}.mat-card-xl-image{width:240px;height:240px;margin:-8px}.mat-card-title-group>.mat-card-xl-image{margin:-8px 0 8px}@media(max-width: 599px){.mat-card-title-group{margin:0}.mat-card-xl-image{margin-left:0;margin-right:0}}.mat-card>:first-child,.mat-card-content>:first-child{margin-top:0}.mat-card>:last-child:not(.mat-card-footer),.mat-card-content>:last-child:not(.mat-card-footer){margin-bottom:0}.mat-card-image:first-child{margin-top:-16px;border-top-left-radius:inherit;border-top-right-radius:inherit}.mat-card>.mat-card-actions:last-child{margin-bottom:-8px;padding-bottom:0}.mat-card-actions:not(.mat-card-actions-align-end) .mat-button:first-child,.mat-card-actions:not(.mat-card-actions-align-end) .mat-raised-button:first-child,.mat-card-actions:not(.mat-card-actions-align-end) .mat-stroked-button:first-child{margin-left:0;margin-right:0}.mat-card-actions-align-end .mat-button:last-child,.mat-card-actions-align-end .mat-raised-button:last-child,.mat-card-actions-align-end .mat-stroked-button:last-child{margin-left:0;margin-right:0}.mat-card-title:not(:first-child),.mat-card-subtitle:not(:first-child){margin-top:-4px}.mat-card-header .mat-card-subtitle:not(:first-child){margin-top:-8px}.mat-card>.mat-card-xl-image:first-child{margin-top:-8px}.mat-card>.mat-card-xl-image:last-child{margin-bottom:-8px}</style><meta name="citation_abstract" content="The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur): (1) the development of computers that are 'awake' and superhumanly intelligent (to date, most controversy in the area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is 'yes, we can', then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter); (2) large computer networks (and their associated users) may 'wake up' as a superhumanly intelligent entity; (3) computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent; and (4) biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect. The first three possibilities depend in large part on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years."><meta name="citation_author" content="Vinge, Vernor"><meta name="citation_author_institution" content="San Diego State Univ. San Diego, CA, United States"><meta name="citation_us_federal_intramural_article" content=""><meta name="citation_online_date" content="9/6/2013"><meta name="citation_pdf_url" content="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19940022856/downloads/19940022856.pdf"><meta name="citation_publication_date" content="12/1/1993"><meta name="citation_journal_title" content="NASA. 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mat-button-base mat-primary _mat-animation-noopable" aria-disabled="false"><span class="mat-button-wrapper">Back to Results</span><span matripple="" class="mat-ripple mat-button-ripple"></span><span class="mat-button-focus-overlay"></span></a><div _ngcontent-sc253="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="10px" fxlayout.lt-md="column" class="details-container flex-layout-20"><app-record-item _ngcontent-sc253="" fxflex="50" fxflex.lt-md="column" _nghost-sc170="" class="flex-layout-21"><mat-card _ngcontent-sc170="" class="mat-card mat-focus-indicator _mat-animation-noopable"><mat-card-title _ngcontent-sc170="" class="mat-card-title"><span _ngcontent-sc170="" class="ng-star-inserted">The coming technological singularity: How to survive in the post-human era</span></mat-card-title><mat-card-subtitle _ngcontent-sc170="" class="mat-card-subtitle">The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur): (1) the development of computers that are 'awake' and superhumanly intelligent (to date, most controversy in the area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is 'yes, we can', then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter); (2) large computer networks (and their associated users) may 'wake up' as a superhumanly intelligent entity; (3) computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent; and (4) biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect. The first three possibilities depend in large part on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years.</mat-card-subtitle><mat-card-content _ngcontent-sc170="" class="mat-card-content details-container"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row ng-star-inserted flex-layout-33"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-34">Document ID</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-35"> 19940022856 </div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row ng-star-inserted flex-layout-36"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-37">Acquisition Source</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-38"> Legacy CDMS </div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row flex-layout-25"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-26">Document Type</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-27"> Conference Paper </div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row ng-star-inserted flex-layout-39"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-40">Authors</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-41"><mat-chip-list _ngcontent-sc170="" class="mat-chip-list ng-star-inserted" id="mat-chip-list-1550500" tabindex="0" aria-required="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-invalid="false" aria-multiselectable="false" role="listbox" aria-orientation="horizontal"><div class="mat-chip-list-wrapper"><mat-chip _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="mat-chip mat-focus-indicator mat-primary mat-standard-chip _mat-animation-noopable flex-layout-42" tabindex="-1" role="option" aria-disabled="false"><div class="mat-chip-ripple flex-layout-43"></div> Vinge, Vernor </mat-chip><span _ngcontent-sc170="" class="flex-layout-44"><em _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="ng-star-inserted flex-layout-45">(San Diego State Univ. San Diego, CA, United States)</em></span></div></mat-chip-list></div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row flex-layout-28"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-29">Date Acquired</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-30"> September 6, 2013 </div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row ng-star-inserted flex-layout-46"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-47">Publication Date</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-48"> December 1, 1993 </div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row ng-star-inserted flex-layout-49"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-50">Publication Information</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-51"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" class="ng-star-inserted"><span _ngcontent-sc170="" class="label">Publication:</span> NASA. Lewis Research Center, Vision 21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace </div></div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row ng-star-inserted flex-layout-52"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-53">Subject Category</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-54"><mat-chip-list _ngcontent-sc170="" class="mat-chip-list" id="mat-chip-list-1550499" tabindex="0" aria-required="false" aria-disabled="false" aria-invalid="false" aria-multiselectable="false" role="listbox" aria-orientation="horizontal"><div class="mat-chip-list-wrapper"><mat-chip _ngcontent-sc170="" class="mat-chip mat-focus-indicator mat-primary mat-standard-chip _mat-animation-noopable ng-star-inserted" tabindex="-1" role="option" aria-disabled="false"><div class="mat-chip-ripple"></div>Astronautics (General)</mat-chip></div></mat-chip-list></div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row ng-star-inserted flex-layout-55"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-56">Accession Number</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-57"> 94N27359 </div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row flex-layout-31"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-32">Distribution Limits</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data ng-star-inserted flex-layout-58"> Public </div></div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxlayout="" fxlayoutgap="20px" class="detail-row ng-star-inserted flex-layout-59"><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="20" class="label flex-layout-60">Copyright</div><div _ngcontent-sc170="" fxflex="" class="data flex-layout-61"> Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted. </div></div></mat-card-content></mat-card></app-record-item><div _ngcontent-sc253="" fxlayout="column" fxflex="50" xlayoutalign="space-around center" fxflex.lt-md="20%" fxflex.lt-sm="20%" class="flex-layout-22"><mat-card _ngcontent-sc253="" class="mat-card mat-focus-indicator records-tables _mat-animation-noopable"><div _ngcontent-sc253=""><h3 _ngcontent-sc253="" class="sub-header">Available Downloads</h3><mat-table _ngcontent-sc253="" class="mat-table cdk-table downloads-table ng-star-inserted" role="table"><mat-header-row _ngcontent-sc253="" role="row" class="mat-header-row cdk-header-row ng-star-inserted"><mat-header-cell _ngcontent-sc253="" role="columnheader" class="mat-header-cell cdk-header-cell cdk-column-name mat-column-name ng-star-inserted">Name</mat-header-cell><mat-header-cell _ngcontent-sc253="" role="columnheader" class="mat-header-cell cdk-header-cell cdk-column-type mat-column-type ng-star-inserted">Type</mat-header-cell><mat-header-cell 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