美 싱크탱크 “尹 정치생명 불확실… 몰락할 수 있다”

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data-ep_button_name="문화_여행" data-ep_button_area="햄버거 메뉴" data-ep_button_category="공통" role="menuitem">여행</a></li> <li role="presentation"><a href="https://www.donga.com/news/pet/poll" data-event_name="click_event" data-ep_button_name="문화_PET&LIFE" data-ep_button_area="햄버거 메뉴" data-ep_button_category="공통" role="menuitem">PET&LIFE</a></li> </ul> </li> <li role="presentation"> <a href="https://www.donga.com/news/Entertainment" data-event_name="click_event" data-ep_button_name="연예" data-ep_button_area="햄버거 메뉴" data-ep_button_category="공통" class="nav_item" role="menuitem"><span>연예</span></a> <ul class="menu_depth2" role="menu"> <li role="presentation"><a href="https://www.donga.com/news/Entertainment/List" data-event_name="click_event" data-ep_button_name="연예_최신기사" data-ep_button_area="햄버거 메뉴" data-ep_button_category="공통" role="menuitem">최신기사</a></li> <li role="presentation"><a href="https://www.donga.com/news/Entertainment/TV" data-event_name="click_event" data-ep_button_name="연예_방송" 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<dt>추천</dt> <dd><span class="count_favorite" data-favorite="reporter" data-id="sinnala8@donga.com"></span></dd> </dl> </div> </div> <hr /> <div class="reporter_body"> <a href="https://www.donga.com/Journalist?pid=sinnala8@donga.com" data-event_name="click_content_event" data-ep_button_name="김혜린(sinnala8)" data-ep_button_area="기사콘텐츠 기자카드" data-ep_button_category="기사뷰"> <p> 동아닷컴 김혜린 기자입니다. </p> </a> <button class='btn_subscribe type_basic' data-scrap='sinnala8@donga.com' data-scrap_type='reporter' data-scrap_name='김혜린' ><i class='ic'><svg><use href='#ic-plus'></use></svg></i>구독</button> </div> </div> </section> <div id="is_relation_pc" class="is_relation_parent"> <section class="side_list_wrap"> <div class="view_ad05 ad p_0"> </div> </section> </div> </aside> <div class="main_view" data-fz="s"> <section class="news_view"> <h2 class='sub_tit'>한국계 첫 美상원의원 앤디 김 “韓 계엄선포, 국민 통치 기반 약화”</h2> <figure class="img_cont articlePhotoC" style='max-width:684px;'> <div class="in_cont"> <img src='https://dimg.donga.com/wps/NEWS/IMAGE/2024/12/04/130563701.3.jpg' alt='윤석열 대통령이 3일 오후 10시경 용산 대통령실에서 비상계엄 긴급 대국민 특별 담화를 발표하고 있다. 비상계엄 선포는 1979년 10월 이후 45년 만이다. 대통령실 제공' /> </div> <figcaption>윤석열 대통령이 3일 오후 10시경 용산 대통령실에서 비상계엄 긴급 대국민 특별 담화를 발표하고 있다. 비상계엄 선포는 1979년 10월 이후 45년 만이다. 대통령실 제공</figcaption> </figure><div class='view_m_adK'><div class='a1' data-sizetype='mobile' data-src='https://yellow.contentsfeed.com/RealMedia/ads/adstream_jx.ads/mdonga/mobile@x43'></div></div>“12월 4일 이른 아침에 계엄령을 해제했음에도 불구하고, 윤석열 대통령의 (정치적) 생존 가능성은 현재로선 불확실하다.”<br><br>미국 싱크탱크 전략국제문제연구소(CSIS)는 3일(현지 시간) ‘윤, 한국에서 계엄령을 선포하다(Yoon Declares Martial Law in South Korea)’라는 제목의 긴급 보고서에서 향후 윤 대통령의 정치적 운명을 이같이 전망했다. 이 보고서에는 빅터 차 한국 석좌와 앤디 임, 지세연 연구원이 참여했다. <br><br>차 석좌 등은 이 글에서 윤 대통령이 3일 오후 11시 비상계엄을 선포한 뒤 4일 오전 4시 반 해제를 선언하기까지 과정을 상세히 담았다. <br><br><div class='view_ad06 ad box bg'><div class='a1' data-sizetype='pc,tablet' data-src='https://yellow.contentsfeed.com/RealMedia/ads/adstream_jx.ads/www.donga.com/news@x15'></div></div><div class='view_m_adA box bg'><div id='div-gpt-ad-1706856360384-0' style='min-width: 300px; min-height: 250px;'> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1706856360384-0'); }); </script> </div></div>이들은 윤 대통령이 계엄령은 선포하게 된 동기에 대해 “지난주 야당이 주도하는 국회는 내년도 정부 예산안을 삭감하고 감사원장과 서울중앙지검장을 탄핵하기 위한 절차를 시작했다”라고 설명했다. 이어 윤 대통령의 비상계엄 선포 당시 언급을 인용해 “국회 다수당을 차지하고 있는 야당이 ‘입법 독재’를 하고 있고, 2022년 5월 취임 이후 22차례의 국무위원 등 탄핵 시도가 있었다”는 점도 전했다. <br><br>차 석좌 등은 그러면서 ‘그 다음에 무슨 일이 일어날까’라는 물음을 던졌다. 이들은 “윤 대통령의 국내 생존 가능성은 현재로선 불확실하다”고 진단했다. <br><br>윤 대통령의 이번 비상계엄 선포를 “정치적 불안을 사전에 예방하기 위해 강력하고 단호한 움직임을 취하려는 의도”라고 평가했다. 그러면서도 “계엄령을 뒤집기 위해 국회의 신속한 (여당 의원들을 포함한 의원) 동원 역량과 국정 지지율이 10%대에 불과한 대통령에 대한 거리 시위가 확산될 가능성은 윤 대통령의 몰락(demise)을 가져올 수 있다”고 내다봤다. <br><br>이들은 또 “북한의 성명은 아직 나오지 않았지만 평양은 이 혼란을 윤석열 정권을 겨냥한 선전 목적으로 이용할 가능성이 매우 높다”고 예상했다. <br><br><div class='view_m_adB box bg'><div id='div-gpt-ad-1706856386813-0' style='min-width: 300px; min-height: 250px;'> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1706856386813-0'); }); </script> </div></div> <figure class="img_cont articlePhotoC" style='max-width:684px;'> <div class="in_cont"> <img src='https://dimg.donga.com/wps/NEWS/IMAGE/2024/12/04/130563993.1.jpg' alt='한국계로는 미국 연방 상원의원에 처음 당선된 앤디 김. 앤디 김 제공.' /> </div> <figcaption>한국계로는 미국 연방 상원의원에 처음 당선된 앤디 김. 앤디 김 제공.<br></figcaption> </figure>한국계로는 처음으로 미국 연방 상원의원에 당선된 앤디 김(민주) 미 연방 하원의원은 윤 대통령의 비상계엄 선포에 대해 공개적으로 비판했다.<br><br>김 의원은 3일 성명을 내고 “이번 계엄령 선포 방식은 국민의 통치라는 근본적인 기반을 약화하고 국민이 안보와 안정을 누려야 할 시기에 한국의 취약성을 극적으로 증가시켰다”고 비판했다. 그러면서 “대한민국 국회가 계엄 해제를 결의한 것은 긴장 완화를 위한 중요한 조치이며 존중받아야 한다”며 “민주주의에는 항상 도전이 발생하는데, 이는 반드시 민주적이고 개방적인 과정을 통해 해결돼야 한다”고 밝혔다. </section> <div class='article_end'></div> <section id="poll_content" class="poll_form_sec"> </section> <script type='text/javascript'> function getPoll() { var pollUrl = window.location.protocol + 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gabuilder.GAEventOBJ(eventObj) ; } }); });function bookmark(m, stype, idx, btn_gid='') { var event_name = "" ; var btn_area = "" ; var btn_cate = "" ; var sectionId = ".3" ; if (sectionId == '.3') { event_name = "click_content_event" ; if ( $('#contents .custom_set_wrap').hasClass("is_fix") === true ) btn_area = "헤더" ; else btn_area = "타이틀영역" ; btn_cate = "기사뷰" ; } else if (sectionId == '.Mypage') { event_name = "click_event" ; btn_area = "북마크 기사리스트" ; btn_cate = "내콘텐츠" ; } $.ajax({ type: "GET", url: "https://www.donga.com/news/scrap?m=" + m + "&stype=" + stype + "&idx=" + idx, dataType: "html", success: function (result) { if (result == 'NeedLogin') { gabuilder.setMakeCookiePV('북마크', 'ga4Articleinfo', 'donga.com', 10, 'https://secure.donga.com/membership/login.php?gourl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.donga.com%2Fnews%2FInter%2Farticle%2Fall%2F20241204%2F130563979%2F1'); } else { var idxArr = idx.split('/'); var gid = idxArr[idxArr.length - 2] ; if (result == 'insert') { $('button.btn_bookmark').addClass("is_active"); // view $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html("<span class='tit'>북마크가 등록 되었습니다</span>"); let eventObj = {}; eventObj = { event_name : event_name, ep_button_name : '북마크 등록', ep_button_area : btn_area, ep_button_category : btn_cate } gabuilder.GAEventOBJ(eventObj) ; } else if (result == 'delete') { $('button.btn_bookmark').removeClass("is_active"); // view $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html("<span class='tit'>북마크가 해제 되었습니다</span>"); let eventObj = {}; eventObj = { event_name : event_name, ep_button_name : '북마크 해제', ep_button_area : btn_area, ep_button_category : btn_cate } gabuilder.GAEventOBJ(eventObj) ; } else if (result == 'delete_all') { // $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html("<span class='tit'>북마크가 모두 삭제 되었습니다</span>"); // setInterval(function() { location.reload(); }, 1000); } else if (result == 'found') { $('button.btn_bookmark').addClass("is_active"); // view } else if (result == 'full') { $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html("<span class='tit'>북마크 수를 초과했습니다 <br> 삭제 후 북마크 등록 해주세요</span>"); } if ( $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html() != "" ) { $('#subscribe_toast').fadeIn(300).delay(1300).fadeOut(300); } } } }); return false; } function getDongaars() { var gid = "130563979" ; if ( gid != "" ) { var targetUrl = "https://www.donga.com/news/dongaars?gid=130563979" ; $.ajax( { type: "GET", url: targetUrl, dataType: "html", success: function (result) { if ( result != "" ) { if ( window.sizeType == 'tablet' || window.sizeType == 'mobile' ) { $('#news_dongaars_not_pc').html("<div id='ainews'>" + result + "</div>") ; } else { $('#news_dongaars').html("<div id='ainews'>" + result + "</div>") ; } window.moveEle.ainews = document.getElementById('ainews') ; } } }); } } $(document).ready(function(){ getDongaars() ; }); //구독버튼 클릭 $(document).on('click', '.btn_subscribe[data-scrap][data-scrap_type][data-scrap_name]' , function(){ var sid = $(this).data('scrap') ; var stype = $(this).data('scrap_type') ; var sname = $(this).data('scrap_name') ; if ( sid && stype && sname ) { var idx = $(this).data('scrap_idx') ; scrap('toggle', stype, sid, sname, '', idx) ; } }); function scrap(m, stype='', sid='', sname='', position='', idx='') { var encode_sname = encodeURIComponent(sname) ; $.ajax({ type: "GET", url: "https://www.donga.com/news/scrap?m=" + m + "&stype=" + stype + "&sid=" + sid + "&sname=" + encode_sname + "&idx=" + idx, dataType: "html", success: function (result) { if (m == 'myscrap') { var scrapArr = result.split("|"); for (var i = 0; i <scrapArr.length; i++) { $('button.btn_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + scrapArr[i] + '"]').addClass('is_active'); $('button.btn_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + scrapArr[i] + '"] use').attr('href', '#ic-check'); }; } else { var gtm_type = "" ; if (stype == 'issue') gtm_type = "이슈" ; else if (stype == 'series') gtm_type = "연재" ; else if (stype == 'reporter') gtm_type = "기자" ; var gtm_sname = sname ; if (stype == 'reporter') { var gtm_sidArr = sid.split("@"); gtm_sname = sname + '('+gtm_sidArr[0]+')' ; sname = sname + " 기자" ; } if (result == 'NeedLogin') { let eventObj = {}; eventObj = { event_name : 'logout_subscribe_event', ep_button_name : gtm_sname, ep_button_area : '구독하기', ep_button_category : '구독하기', ep_subscribe_type : gtm_type, ep_subscribe_name : gtm_sname } gabuilder.GAEventOBJ(eventObj) ; let customObj = {}; customObj = { ep_contentdata_content_title : document.title , ep_subscribe_name : gtm_sname , ep_subscribe_type : gtm_type } var ep_sign_up_method = "구독" ; gabuilder.setMakeCookiePV(ep_sign_up_method, 'ga4Articleinfo', 'donga.com', 10, 'https://secure.donga.com/membership/login.php?gourl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.donga.com%2Fnews%2FInter%2Farticle%2Fall%2F20241204%2F130563979%2F1', customObj, true) ; } else { if (result == 'insert') { $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html("<span class='tit'>"+sname+"</span> 구독이 <span class='application'>완료</span> 되었습니다"); $('button.btn_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"]').addClass('is_active'); $('button.btn_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"] use').attr('href', '#ic-check'); if ( $('.count_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"]').length > 0 ) { var thisCnt = parseInt($('.count_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"]').html()) ; $('.count_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"]').html(thisCnt+1) ; } if ( gtm_sname != "" && gtm_type != "" ) { let eventObj = {}; eventObj = { event_name : 'subscribe_event', ep_button_name : gtm_sname, ep_button_area : '구독하기', ep_button_category : '구독하기', ep_subscribe_type : gtm_type, ep_subscribe_name : gtm_sname } gabuilder.GAEventOBJ(eventObj) ; } } else if (result == 'delete') { $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html("<span class='tit'>"+sname+"</span> 구독이 <span class='application'>취소</span> 되었습니다"); $('button.btn_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"]').removeClass('is_active'); $('button.btn_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"] use').attr('href', '#ic-plus'); if ( $('.count_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"]').length > 0 ) { var thisCnt = parseInt($('.count_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"]').html()) ; $('.count_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + sid + '"]').html(thisCnt-1) ; } } else if (result == 'update') { $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html("<span class='tit'>수정 되었습니다</span>"); } else if (result == 'full') { $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html("<span class='tit'>구독 수를 초과했습니다 <br> 삭제 후 구독 해주세요</span>"); } } } if ( m != 'select' && m != 'myinfo' && m != 'myscrap' && $("#subscribe_toast .txt").html() != "" ) { $('#subscribe_toast').fadeIn(300).delay(1300).fadeOut(300); } } }); return false; }function getActionInfo() { var emotionArr = []; $('.count_emotion[data-id]').each(function(){ emotionArr.push( $(this).data('id') ) ; }); var commentArr = []; $('.count_comment[data-id]').each(function(){ commentArr.push( $(this).data('id') ) ; }); if ( emotionArr.length > 0 || commentArr.length > 0 ) { $.ajax({ type: "POST", url: "https://www.donga.com/news/getActionInfo", dataType: "json", data: { p1: JSON.stringify(emotionArr), p2: JSON.stringify(commentArr) }, error : function (result) { } , success: function (result) { $.each(result, function(index, infodata){ if ( index == 'emotion' ) { $.each(infodata, function(key, val){ $('span.count_emotion[data-id= "' + key + '"]').html(val); $('span.count_emotion[data-id= "' + key + '"]').parent().find('use').attr('href', '#ic-news-emotion'); }) } else if ( index == 'comment' ) { $.each(infodata, function(key, val){ $('span.count_comment[data-id= "' + key + '"]').html(val); $('span.count_comment[data-id= "' + key + '"]').parent().find('use').attr('href', '#ic-news-comment'); }) } }) } }); } } $(document).ready(function(){ getActionInfo() ; }); // 추천버튼 클릭 $(document).on('click', '.btn_subscribe[data-favorite][data-id]' , function(){ var fave = $(this).data('favorite') ; var faveId = [$(this).data('id')]; var mode = "cancel" ; if ( fave != "" && faveId != "" ) { if ( $(this).hasClass("is_active") === false ) mode = "insert" ; setFavorite ( mode, fave, faveId ) ; } }); $(document).ready(function(){ let favoriteKey = ['gudok','reporter','member'] ; $.each(favoriteKey, function(key, val){ var tmpArr = []; if ( val == "gudok" ) { $('span.count_subscribe[data-scrap]').each(function(){ if ( $(this).html() == "" ) tmpArr.push( $(this).data('scrap') ) ; }); } else if ( val == "reporter" ) { $('span.count_favorite[data-favorite="' + val + '"]').each(function(){ if ( $(this).html() == "" ) tmpArr.push( $(this).data('id') ) ; }); } else if ( val == "member" ) { $('button[data-favorite="' + val + '"]').each(function(){ tmpArr.push( $(this).data('id') ) ; }); } if ( tmpArr.length > 0 ) { setFavorite ( 'my', val, tmpArr ) ; } }); }); function setFavoriteMember( sel, mode ) { if ( mode == 'toggle' ) { if ( $(sel).hasClass("is_active") === false ) mode = "insert" ; else mode = "cancel" ; setFavorite ( mode, 'member', $(sel).data('id') ) ; } } function setFavorite( mode, fave, faveId ) { if ( Array.isArray(faveId) ) { } else faveId = [faveId]; $.ajax({ type: "POST", url: "https://www.donga.com/news/getFavoriteInfo", dataType: "json", data: { m: mode, p1: fave, p2: JSON.stringify(faveId) }, error : function (result) { } , success: function (result) { if ( result.HEAD.STATUS == "exist" ) {} else if ( result.HEAD.STATUS == "block" ) {} else if ( result.HEAD.STATUS == "ok" ) { var favoriteCnt = parseInt($('span.count_favorite[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').html()) ; if ( mode == "insert" ) { $('span.count_favorite[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').html(favoriteCnt+1); $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').addClass('is_active'); $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').find('use').attr('href', '#ic-check'); if ( fave == "member" ) { $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').find('span').html('회원 추천완료'); } else if ( fave == "reporter" ) { var rname = $('button.btn_subscribe[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').data('rname') ; rname = '추천_' + rname +'(' + faveId + ')' ; let eventObj = {}; eventObj = { event_name : 'click_event', ep_button_name : rname, ep_button_area : '기자 정보', ep_button_category : '기자 상세' } gabuilder.GAEventOBJ(eventObj) ; } } else if ( mode == "cancel" ) { if ( favoriteCnt > 0 ) $('span.count_favorite[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').html(favoriteCnt-1); $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').removeClass('is_active'); if ( fave == "reporter" ) { $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').find('use').attr('href', '#ic-recommend'); } else if ( fave == "member" ) { $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').find('use').attr('href', '#ic-plus'); $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').find('span').html('회원 추천하기'); } } else if ( mode == "my" ) { $.each(result.DATA, function(index, infodata){ $.each(infodata, function(key, val){ if ( index == 'gudok' ) { $('span.count_subscribe[data-scrap= "' + key + '"]').html(val); } else if ( index == fave ) { $('span.count_favorite[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + key + '"]').html(val); } else if ( index == 'myFave' ) { $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + val + '"]').addClass('is_active'); $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + val + '"]').find('use').attr('href', '#ic-check'); if ( fave == "member" ) { $('button[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + val + '"]').find('span').html('회원 추천완료'); } } }); }); } } else if ( result.HEAD.STATUS == "needlogin" ) { // $('button.btn_subscribe[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').removeClass('is_active'); // $('button.btn_subscribe[data-favorite= "' + fave + '"][data-id= "' + faveId + '"]').find('use').attr('href', '#ic-recommend'); var targetUrl = "https://secure.donga.com/membership/login.php?gourl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.donga.com%2Fnews%2FInter%2Farticle%2Fall%2F20241204%2F130563979%2F1" ; location.href = targetUrl ; } } }); return false; } </script> <script src="https://image.donga.com/donga/js.v.5.0/postscribe.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded", function(){ $('.a1[data-sizetype][data-src]').each(function(){ let innerWidth = window.innerWidth ; let device = $(this).attr('data-sizetype'); let scriptSrc = $(this).attr('data-src'); if ( device.indexOf('mobile') != -1 && innerWidth <= "767" ) { postscribe($(this), '<script text/javascript src='+ scriptSrc +'><\/script>'); } else if ( device.indexOf('tablet') != -1 && innerWidth <= "1024" ) { postscribe($(this), '<script text/javascript src='+ scriptSrc +'><\/script>'); } else if ( device.indexOf('pc') != -1 && innerWidth > "1024" ) { postscribe($(this), '<script text/javascript src='+ scriptSrc +'><\/script>'); } }); }); 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