Mysteel半年报：2024下半年国内再生铝合金锭市场预计先抑后扬-我的钢铁网

<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="zh-CN"> <head> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"> <meta name="viewport" content="initial-scale=1, maximum-scale=1"> <meta name="mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes"> <meta name="format-detection" content="telephone=no" /> <meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes"> <meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-status-bar-style" content="black"> <meta name="applicable-device" content="mobile"> <meta name="articleUrl" content="//youse.mysteel.com/a/24062910/6F923126C4F0BA3C.html" /> <meta property="og:image" content="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/images/share_logo.png" /> <meta name="allow" content="0" /> <meta name="id" content="35601981" /> <meta name="channel" content="a,6735" /> <meta name="detailTit" content="Mysteel半年报：2024下半年国内再生铝合金锭市场预计先抑后扬" /> <meta name="denyReview" content="true" /> <title>Mysteel半年报：2024下半年国内再生铝合金锭市场预计先抑后扬-我的钢铁网</title> <meta name="Keywords" content="有色金属,铝价,Mysteel,铝,我的钢铁网" /> <meta name="Description" content="概述：2024年一季度ADC12价格重心相对较高，一月市场提前放假，市场供需两弱，成本支撑ADC12价格在18900-1" /> <link rel="canonical" href="//m.mysteel.com/a/24062910/6F923126C4F0BA3C_abc.html"> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/sui/sui.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/wsyCss.css?v=20221027" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/wsyCss20180930.css?v=17" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/permissions.css?v=11" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/css/common.css?v=20221212"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/bxCss.css?v=201705190952"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/addStyle.css?v=201704180942"> <link rel="stylesheet" href='//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/add.css?v=20181027'> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/whyStyle.css?v=201810261448"> <style type="text/css"> .banben a.edition { padding: 0.25rem 0.6rem;} .bar hgroup .loginBtn {position:relative; z-index:3; } .bar {padding-right: 0;} .bar .title {z-index:1;width: 38% !important;} .bar hgroup .loginBtn {margin-right: 0.4rem !important; margin-top:0.7rem !important;} .bar hgroup .app-enter { position:relative; z-index:3; margin-top:0.7rem; margin-right: 0.6rem; background: #1197db; width: 2.5rem; height: 1.2rem; border-radius: 0.2rem; line-height: 1.2rem; font-size: 0.7rem; color: #FFFFFF; text-align: center;} .xmteditor{display:block!important;} .related { margin-top: 1px; background: #fff; padding: 0.5rem 4%; font-size: 0.7rem } .related .related-title { line-height: 2.25rem; font-size: 0.8rem; font-family: 'PingFangSC-Regular'; font-weight: 600; } .related .related-list { width: 100%; overflow-y: hidden; margin-top: -0.5rem; transition: all 0.2s linear; } .related .related-list.maxHeight{ height: 7.5rem; overflow: hidden; } .related .related-list.related-list-heightAuto{ max-height: auto; height: auto; transition: all 0.3s linear; } .related .related-list a { display: block; width: 46%; height: 2rem; line-height: 2rem; padding: 0 4%; float: left; margin-right: 8%; margin-top: 0.5rem; background: #F6F6F6; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; box-sizing: border-box; } .related .related-list a:nth-child(even) { margin-right: 0; } .related .related-more { width: 6rem; margin: 0.5rem auto; text-align: center; line-height: 1.8rem; cursor: pointer; } </style>  <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/common/3.0/content/picture-carousel-wap.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href='//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/css/hStyle.css?v=20200930'> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/photoviewer/css/viewer.min.css" /> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/aplayer/1.10.0/APlayer.min.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/aplayer/1.10.0/APlayer.configer.css?v=20210525"> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/jquery.min.js"></script> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/aplayer/1.10.0/APlayer.min.js?v=20210525"></script> <style> body{margin:0;padding:0;}p{margin:0;padding:0;} .suspend{display:none;position:fixed;bottom:0;left:0;width:100%;height:3rem;box-shadow:0.5rem 0.3rem 0.5rem 0.5rem #e4e4e4;background-color:#ffffff;z-index:99;} .suspend-container{position:relative;width:100%;height:3rem;} .suspend-container-close{position:absolute;left:0.75rem;bottom:1.1rem;width:0.75rem;height:0.75rem;margin-left:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;}.suspend-container-logo{position:absolute;left:2.2rem;bottom:0.6rem;width:2.4rem;height:1.5rem;margin-left:0.75rem;vertical-align:middle;}.suspend-container-text{display:inline-block;width:9.4rem;margin-top:0.45rem;margin-left:5.8rem;vertical-align:middle;} .suspend-container-text p:nth-child(1){font-size:0.75rem;color:#333333;font-weight:500;} .suspend-container-text p:nth-child(2){margin-top:0.1rem;font-size:0.6rem;color:#999999;font-weight:400;} .suspend-container-button{position:absolute;bottom:0.85rem;right:0.75rem;width:2.5rem;height:1.3rem;line-height:1.3rem;text-align:center;font-size:0.75rem;color:#ffffff;background-color:#2d8ee7;border-radius:0.75rem;} .banben .back-top{bottom:11.35rem;} .banben .filter{bottom:8rem;} .banben .share{bottom:4.65rem;} .tip-text .text{margin:0;position:absolute;left:0;top:60px;} .list-block .news-title a{display:block;} .infor{padding:0 5% .5rem;} .expand{padding-bottom:1.5rem !important;} #mycity{display:none;position:fixed;top:2.5rem;width:100%;z-index:999;overflow:hidden;width:100%;height:1.7rem;background:#4f97ef;transition:all 0.2s;} #mycity li{float:left;list-style:none;margin-left:0.1rem;padding:0 0.2rem;font:0.7rem/1.7rem "Microsoft YaHei";}#mycity li a{display:block;color:#fff;} .article-text .aplayer-played,.aplayer-bar-wrap,.aplayer-bar,.aplayer-controller{overflow:unset !important;} </style> </head> <body data="//youse.mysteel.com" breed="020205"> <div class="page-group"> <div class="page page-current">  <header class="bar bar-nav"> <hgroup> <div class="pull-left logoCon"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/" class="logo" external></a> <a href="//m.steelphone.com/xz/?fr=01163" class="app-enter-logo"></a> </div> <h1 class="title">年报</h1> <a href="//m.mysteel.com/nav.html" external class="app-search"></a> <span class="top-login-state"> <a href="javascript:;" onclick="window.location.href='https://passport.mysteel.com/m/?site=abc&location='+encodeURIComponent('公用头部')+'&callback='+encodeURI(document.location.href)" external class="app-login calabash h-login">登录/注册</a> <a href="javascript:;" onclick="window.location.href='http://passport.mysteel.com/logout.jsp?site=mysteel&callback='+encodeURI(document.location.href)" external class="app-login" style="display:none;">退出</a> <a href="javascript:;" onclick="window.location.href='https://passport.mysteel.com/m/switch-account.html?site=mysteel&callback='+encodeURI(document.location.href)+'&location='+encodeURIComponent('公用头部')" external class="app-login" style="display:none;">切换账号</a> </span> </hgroup> </header>  <div class="content"> <div class="a-banner"> <a external rel="nofollow" href="https://m.steelphone.com/share/invite/#/invite?userId=ge2dkn2xg55a&inviteSource=118&uniqueMark=&poster=&source=M站-文章详细页" class="swiper-slide-link" style="display: block; position: relative; width: 100%;"> <img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/gg/uploaded/M1_750x90app__20170425.jpg?v=202405281432" alt="" display: block; width: 100%; margin: 0;> <p style="position: absolute; right: 0; bottom: 0; width: 26px; height: 14px; z-index: 12; background: url(//a.mysteelcdn.com/common/3.0/leftbottom_new2.png) 100% 0% no-repeat;"> </p> </a> </div> <div id="mycity" class="clearfix"> <ul class="clearfix"> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0201-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铜')" external>铜价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0202-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铝')" external>铝价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0203-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铅')" external>铅价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0204-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','锌')" external>锌价格</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="h-nav"> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net" rel="nofollow" external>有色金属网</a> > <span>Mysteel半年报：2024下半年国内再生铝合金锭市场预计先抑后扬</span> </div> <h2 class="article-title" style="color:#000000">Mysteel半年报：2024下半年国内再生铝合金锭市场预计先抑后扬</h2> <p class="infor"> <span class='source'>2024-06-29 10:33</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="13724" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>概述：2024年一季度ADC12价格重心相对较高，一月市场提前放假，市场供需两弱，成本支撑ADC12价格在18900-19400元/吨区间波动。春节后，由于订单累积，生产企业积极补充原料备货生产，产量在3月达到了一个小高峰。进入二季度，原<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>一路上扬，先后突破21000和22000元/吨关口，在废料价格坚跟涨的情况下，ADC12价格虽然上涨，但跟涨非常乏力，在20300元/吨的位置遇到了较强阻力。压铸下游的需求明显转弱，汽车市场不温不火，燃油车市场占有率持续下滑，“金三银四”旺季预期落空，供需矛盾突出，市场情绪偏悲观。二季度末，原铝高位回落，ADC12价格也跌至19400元/吨水平，市场供需情况环比好转，活跃度有所提升。</p> <p><strong>一、2024</strong><strong>上半年市场回顾</strong></p> <p>（一）2024上半年价格走势回顾</p> <p>国内价格走势分析</p> <p>1. 再生铝合金锭市场行情回顾</p> <p>上半年国内ADC12价格从一月初18800元/吨震荡上行，在5月底涨至20300元/吨。废铝成本上涨推动ADC12价格上涨，但是下游需求环比持续减弱，高价抑制需求的弊端凸显。6月沪铝高位回落，ADC12价格震荡下行，价格的下跌给市场给原本压抑的市场缓松口气。虽然国内汽车消费市场表现一般，出口铝压铸件数据中规中矩，但由于进口铝合金锭价格连续3个月倒挂，国内进口铝合金锭量显著减少，预计未来价格下跌空间相对有限。截至6月底，ADC12价格处于19400元/吨附近徘徊，也是2023年价格“V”字型的右端，密切关注其是否有支撑。在现阶段废<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>格坚挺，再生铝合金锭企业利润匮乏，生产积极性减弱的情况下，价格不具备持续下跌的基础。</p> <p align="center"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>主流地区ADC12价格走势</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 301.84px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/29/8f83cbaad04f425f8cec52e5ce1cf712.png" /></p> <p align="center"> </p> <p style="text-align: left;" align="center">数据来源：Mysteel</p> <p>2、成本利润分析</p> <p>据Mysteel调研统计，2024年6月中国铝合金锭行业加权平均完全成本19800元/吨，环比下降100元/吨。原铝高位回落，带动废铝价格小幅下跌，其次金属硅价格也屡创新低。今年1-6月，ADC12成本在19400-19950元/吨震荡，与市场价格相对比，其利润相对低下。且考虑企业的折现能力偏弱的情况，实际上利润再度缩小。截至6月底，原铝的低位徘徊，废铝市场流通性减弱，废铝价格表现异常坚挺，支撑ADC12价格。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 339.571px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/29/01b8a296512f47b39cc00ee6d365b029.png" width="600" height="339" /></p> <p>数据来数据来源：Mysteel</p> <p align="justify">（二）2024上半年基本面情况回顾</p> <p align="justify">供应格局及变化趋势分析</p> <p align="justify">2024年上半年再生铝合金先扬后抑，整体仍处于供大于求的。从时间段来看，一季度原铝价格强势上涨带动ADC12一路向上，考虑年前成品和废铝备货库存成本，与年前盈亏状况相比，再生铝合金企业单吨利润扩大至400元/吨，供应端出货意愿尚可，年后需求端缓慢恢复订单，成交稍有好转；二季度，在各方利好信息政策的刺激下，原铝价格飙升至年内最高点，但ADC12市场和价格后续乏力明显，ADC12与A00出现巨幅倒挂价差，且在5月劳动节假期过后，压铸企业订单同比环比下滑现象突出，6月再生铝合金市场更是迎来量价双杀惨淡局面，再生铝合金社会库存数量持续增长，这部分量实际上为厂内成品库存转移到社会仓库，并未实际被消费，出库量小于入库量。展望下半年，国产铝合金整体供需格局难有太大好转迹象，需求偏弱局面将继续，再生铝合金企业月均产量基本维持在45-50万吨区间，进口量或小幅下降，但需求量增长空间更为有限，更多的是行业横向竞争淘汰。</p> <p align="center">铝合金锭市场供需平衡表</p> <table style="width: 52.9579%; float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" border="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width: 12.5671%;" valign="center" width="117"> <p align="center"><strong>供需平衡</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center"><strong>23.6</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center"><strong>23.7</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center"><strong>23.8</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center"><strong>23.9</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center"><strong>23.10</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center"><strong>23.11</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center"><strong>23.12</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center"><strong>24.1</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center"><strong>24.2</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center"><strong>24.3</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center"><strong>24.4</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 7.08915%;" valign="center" width="66"> <p align="center"><strong>24.5</strong></p> </td> <td style="width: 8.37809%;" valign="center" width="78"> <p align="center"><strong>24.6</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 12.5671%;" valign="center" width="117"> <p align="center">国产铝合金产量</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">41.40</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">43.40</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">45.03</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">46.30</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">45.99</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">46.73</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">46.79</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">53.38</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">27.90</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">54.50</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">56.00</p> </td> <td style="width: 7.08915%;" valign="center" width="66"> <p align="center">53.16</p> </td> <td style="width: 8.37809%;" valign="center" width="78"> <p align="center">50.00</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 12.5671%;" valign="center" width="117"> <p align="center">净进口量</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">4.1</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">4</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">4</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">5</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">3</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">4.5</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">4</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">2</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">0.5</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">2</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">4</p> </td> <td style="width: 7.08915%;" valign="center" width="66"> <p align="center">3</p> </td> <td style="width: 8.37809%;" valign="center" width="78"> <p align="center">3</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 12.5671%;" valign="center" width="117"> <p align="center">铝合金供应量</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">45.5</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">47.4</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">49.03</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">51.3</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">48.99</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">51.23</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">50.79</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">55.38</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">28.4</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">56.5</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">60</p> </td> <td style="width: 7.08915%;" valign="center" width="66"> <p align="center">56.16</p> </td> <td style="width: 8.37809%;" valign="center" width="78"> <p align="center">53</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 12.5671%;" valign="center" width="117"> <p align="center">铝合金需求量</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">42</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">43</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">45</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">46</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">43</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">45</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">46</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">49</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">23</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">50</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">51</p> </td> <td style="width: 7.08915%;" valign="center" width="66"> <p align="center">47</p> </td> <td style="width: 8.37809%;" valign="center" width="78"> <p align="center">44</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 12.5671%;" valign="center" width="117"> <p align="center">供需平衡</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">3.5</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">4.4</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">4.03</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">5.3</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">5.99</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">6.23</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.33727%;" valign="center" width="59"> <p align="center">4.79</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">6.38</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">5.4</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">6.5</p> </td> <td style="width: 6.01504%;" valign="center" width="56"> <p align="center">9</p> </td> <td style="width: 7.08915%;" valign="center" width="66"> <p align="center">9.16</p> </td> <td style="width: 8.37809%;" valign="center" width="78"> <p align="center">9</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p align="center">数据来源：Mysteel</p> <p>消费及变化趋势分析</p> <p>据乘联会，随着四月底汽车报废更新补贴落地，消费者预期有所稳定，前期压抑的购买力逐渐开始释放，“五一”假期叠加地方车展，车市温和修复。中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会数据显示，5月狭义乘用车零售171.1万辆，同比-1.9%，环比增长11.4%，其中燃油车节后热度迅速回落，全月零售91万辆，同比下降23%，已经持续两月降幅在20%以上。新能源市场零售80.5万辆，渗透率47.0%，成为5月整体车市的有力支撑。6月初市场热度温和延续，中旬各厂商借势端午假期及“618”电商促销活动，积极开展各种促销营销活动，冲击半年度目标。车市价格进一步下探，整体车市内卷进一步加剧。</p> <p align="center">中国全行业汽车产量统计（万辆）</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/29/46bca183590d4a5aaa9544e1fa17b5d7.png" width="598" height="381" /></p> <p> </p> <p>数据来源：中汽协</p> <p align="center">中国全行业汽车销量统计（万辆）</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/29/bef071ddb40a4ef29b79bf5791e8f57b.png" width="594" height="434" /></p> <p>数据来源：中汽协</p> <p>2024年上半年总结</p> <p>2024年电动车消费市场的内卷伤及到了燃油车市场，传导至产业链上游，不管是生产企业还是贸易商，都明显感受到行业的冰点。原材料价格震荡上行，海外需求紧缩致使我国的出口订单下滑，下游压铸行业被迫选择减产。供应方面，上半年新投产能较少，主要分布在安徽，其次是重庆。在原本产能严重过剩的局面下，供应端的横向竞争会显得更加残酷，行业洗牌加剧，企业求变之路依然还很漫长。</p> <p><strong>二、2024</strong><strong>下半年市场展望</strong></p> <p align="justify">（一）2024下半年供需格局展望</p> <p>供应趋势预测</p> <p align="justify">2024年上半年国内再生铝合金锭产量296.9万吨，累计同比增幅了18.48%，进口的未锻轧的铝合金52.54万吨，累计同比增幅18.44%。上半年铝价先扬后抑，但整体维持偏强运行，铝合金锭厂生产积极性较高，市场供应量维持高位，而下游压铸企业订单薄弱，对铝合金锭需求减少，市场供大于求。而下半年随着国家一系列促进消费落地，以及金九银十的传统旺季，市场需求有望得到好转，促使部分新投企业加快投产进度。下半年美联储有降息预期，美元指数回落，有利于海外铝合金锭进口，进口量有望增加。预计下半年铝合金锭市场供应量继续保持增加。</p> <p align="justify">2、消费趋势预测</p> <p align="justify">2024年1-5月，汽车产销分别完成1138.4万辆和1149.6万辆，同比分别增长6.5%和8.3%，从汽车产销数据来看，上半年国内汽车板块需求表现增长，带动铝合金锭市场大部分需求。6月12号，欧盟委员会发布关于对华电动汽车反补贴调查的初裁披露，拟从7月4日起对自中国进口的电动汽车征收临时反补贴税。这一举措将影响我国对欧盟新能源汽车的出口，但中国电动车优势仍存，除欧洲以外，在其他国家均有布局，未来影响也只会越来越低。国务院提出设备更新，消费品以旧换新方案，推动汽车、家电等传统消费品行业的更新换代，从而带动市场需求增加。</p> <p>3、进出口趋势预测</p> <p align="justify">2024年1-5月进口的未锻轧的铝合金52.54万吨，累计同比增幅18.44%。其中主要进口来源国：马来西亚、泰国、越南、韩国。马来西亚1-5月进口23.16万，占总进口量44.08%，泰国进口6.81万吨，越南5.23万吨，韩国3.05万吨。从进口数据可以看出：马来西亚进口到国内量远超其他国家，占国内总进口量近一半。其主要原因，国内不少企业在马来西亚有自己生产工厂，这部分生产的铝合金锭，大部分是发到国内。随着国内原料愈发紧张，不少国内铝合金锭厂将目光投向海外，其中除马来西亚外，泰国也陆续有不少国内工厂在其建厂，国内一些进不来的废铝将在海外加工后，满足要求进入国内，未来未锻轧的铝合金进口的量将会持续增加。</p> <p align="center">2024年1-5月主要来源国进口未锻轧的铝合金数量</p> <p> </p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 339.571px;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/29/f94f845ee6514c9f9b18eac02d14bd49.png" width="600" height="339" /></p> <p>数据来源：海关总署</p> <p>供需平衡展望</p> <p>为深入贯彻党中央、国务院关于碳达峰碳中和重大战略决策部署，有力有序有效做好碳达峰工作，各省鼓励发展再生<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>产业，提高再生金属产量比例，为此不少企业纷纷投入再生铝合金锭行业。在此背景下，再生铝合金锭市场供应量逐年提升。需求端：国内大力发展新能源汽车，提高新能源汽车产量。同时设备更新，消费品以旧换新方案，也将推动汽车，家电，通讯设备等传统消费品行业更新换代，而再生铝合金锭作为汽车、家电、通讯设备中必须原材料，其消耗量也会随之增加。预计下半年铝合金锭的供应与需求都会小幅增加，但整体供应远大于需求的格局很难改变。</p> <p>（二）2024下半年价格行情展望</p> <p>对于下半年，预计下半年再生铝ADC12价格先跌后涨，区间维持在19000-20500元/吨。上半年价格走强，企业订单匮乏，上下游产业的开工率都不高，在需求低迷的情况下，不排除7-8月的企业高温假期有所延长。但好在现阶段价格表现相对温和，市场供需双弱局势不会加剧。到了九、十月，市场传统旺季，市场预期较好，同时考虑到美联储降息预期，货币政策的利好有利于推动出台各项促销费的政策落地执行。且目前不少燃油车纷纷降价处理，有望来一波去库存的小高潮。综上所述，整个下半年，ADC12价格呈现先抑后扬走势。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘绪忠 021-66896539 </br> 资讯监督：王宏飞 010-57930636 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-6735-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-6735-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/22/0711/18/1E5278A8DBCF7B63_abc.html" external> Mysteel：再生铝合金锭2022年上半年回顾及下半年展望 </a> </div> <div class="news-time">2022-07-11</div> </li> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/22/0112/10/CD7D2F812E3D450C_abc.html" external> Mysteel：再生铝及铝合金锭、棒行业年度报告(2021版) </a> </div> <div class="news-time">2022-01-12</div> </li> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/22/0104/16/DCB5A3303B3EC3B4_abc.html" external> Mysteel：铝合金锭市场2021年回顾及2022年展望 </a> </div> <div class="news-time">2022-01-04</div> </li> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/21/1231/11/D2BB2757A4DD6E76_abc.html" external> Mysteel：原铝合金锭A356.2.市场2021回顾和2022年展望 </a> </div> <div class="news-time">2021-12-31</div> </li> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/a/21122815/6ABE594CAF30247E_abc.html" external> Mysteel：进口铝合金锭市场2021年回顾及2022年展望 </a> </div> <div class="news-time">2021-12-28</div> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="suspend"> <div class="suspend-container"> <img class="suspend-container-close" src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/images/foot_close.png"> <img class="suspend-container-logo" src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/images/foot_logo.png"> <div class="suspend-container-text"> <p>最新行情免费看</p> <p>注册即可查看，5大产业价格信息！</p> </div> <p class="suspend-container-button">注册</p> </div> </div> <script> function getCookie(c) { var a = document.cookie.lastIndexOf(c + "="); if (a == -1) { return null; } var d = document.cookie.substring(a + c.length + 1); var b = d.indexOf(";"); if (b == -1) { b = d.length; } d = d.substring(0, b); d = unescape(d); return d; } if (!getCookie("_login_token")) { $(".suspend").show() } $(".suspend-container-close").click(function () { $(".suspend").hide() }) $(".suspend-container-button").click(function () { window.location.href = 'https://passport.mysteel.com/mjoin.jsp?site=' + window.location.host + '&callback=' + encodeURIComponent(window.location.href) }) </script> <div class="related"> <div class="related-title">相关热搜词</div> <div class="related-list"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1252694.html" title="开封小麦价格" external target="_blank">开封小麦价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/17446.html" title="阜阳脚手架管" external target="_blank">阜阳脚手架管</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1443625.html" title="平泉香蕉价格" external target="_blank">平泉香蕉价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1255953.html" title="登封小麦价格" external target="_blank">登封小麦价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1443595.html" title="高碑店谷子价格" external target="_blank">高碑店谷子价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1081711.html" title="杭州铁精粉" external target="_blank">杭州铁精粉</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/307159.html" title="遵义H型钢价格" external target="_blank">遵义H型钢价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/683694.html" title="晋中焦炭" external target="_blank">晋中焦炭</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/986558.html" title="广州番禺水泥价格" external target="_blank">广州番禺水泥价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/270918.html" title="不同直径钢筋价格表" external target="_blank">不同直径钢筋价格表</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/683469.html" title="青岛焦炭" external target="_blank">青岛焦炭</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/662621.html" title="云南动力煤" external target="_blank">云南动力煤</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1001250.html" title="四川川美牌水泥价格" external target="_blank">四川川美牌水泥价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/10852.html" title="兰炭价位行情列表" external target="_blank">兰炭价位行情列表</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/307171.html" title="黔西南H型钢价格" external target="_blank">黔西南H型钢价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1256940.html" title="营口小麦价格" external target="_blank">营口小麦价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1081736.html" title="宁波普钢" external target="_blank">宁波普钢</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1108420.html" title="儋州工角槽" external target="_blank">儋州工角槽</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1252688.html" title="定州小麦价格" external target="_blank">定州小麦价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/327968.html" title="梧州砂浆价格" external target="_blank">梧州砂浆价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/122687.html" title="黔西南工字钢" external target="_blank">黔西南工字钢</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1400346.html" title="天津气煤价格" external target="_blank">天津气煤价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1062478.html" title="杭州兰炭" external target="_blank">杭州兰炭</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1067206.html" title="沈阳兰炭" external target="_blank">沈阳兰炭</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/963899.html" title="宜宾水泥价格走势图" external target="_blank">宜宾水泥价格走势图</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1443679.html" title="泊头香蕉价格" external target="_blank">泊头香蕉价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/898390.html" title="新密h型钢" external target="_blank">新密h型钢</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/979233.html" title="济南河沙水泥价格" external target="_blank">济南河沙水泥价格</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/66989.html" title="喀什脚手架管" external target="_blank">喀什脚手架管</a> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/hot/2874.html" title="长春塑料模具钢" external target="_blank">长春塑料模具钢</a> </div> <div class="related-more">查看更多<span>&or;</span></div> </div> <p class="hot-city"> <a class="hot-city-tit" href="https://m.mysteel.com/nav.html" external>热门品种：</a> <span><a href="https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html" external>螺纹钢</a></span>、 <span><a href="https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html" external>热卷</a></span>、 <span><a href="https://m.mybxg.com/" external>不锈钢</a></span>、 <span><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0222-0--------1.html" external>镍</a></span>、 <span><a href="https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0306-0--------1.html" external>废钢</a></span> </p> <p class="hot-city" style="margin-top: 0"> <a class="hot-city-tit" href="https://m.mysteel.com/nav.html" external>热门推荐：</a> <span><a href="https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html" external>铁矿石</a></span>、 <span><a href="https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050202-0--------1.html" external>焦煤</a></span>、 <span><a href="https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0501-0--------1.html" external>焦炭</a></span>、 <span><a href="https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0303-0--------1.html" external>铁合金</a></span>、 <span><a href="https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----03030202-0--------1.html" external>硅锰</a></span> </p> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/css/max750.css?v=202302201842"> <div class="buttons-tab banben" style="background:#fff !important;"> <a target="_blank" id="pc" class="external edition"> <i class="pc-icon"></i>PC端</a> <a href="//www.steelphone.com/xz/?fr=01047" target="_blank" class="external edition"> <i class="app-icon"></i>手机版</a> <a href="//m.mysteel.com/abc_dxqjs.html" target="_blank" class="external edition border-r"> <i class="wx-icon"></i>官方微信</a> </div> <div class="buttons-tab banben banben2" style="background:#fff !important;"> <a href="//m.mysteel.com/nav.html" class="external edition"> <i class="nav-icon"></i>导航</a> <a onclick="location.href='//m.mysteel.com/feedback.html?from='+location.href" class="external edition feedbackA"> <i class="feedback-icon"></i>意见反馈</a> <a href="//m.mysteel.com/" class="border-r external edition"> <i class="index-icon"></i>返回首页</a> <a href="javascript:scroll(0,0)" class="external back-top back-top-new"></a> <a href="//m.mysteel.com/so.html" class="external filter "></a> <a class="external share"></a> <div class="h-share"> <div class="h-share-content"> <div class="h-share-content-board"> <p class="text">分享到</p> <p class="main"> <span class="item link h-share-link"> <img src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/images/link.png" alt="android"> <span>复制链接</span> </span> <span class="item weibo"> <img src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/images/weibo.png" alt="android"> <span>微博</span> </span> <span class="item zone"> <img src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/images/zone.png" alt="android"> <span>QQ空间</span> </span> <span class="item weixin"> <img src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/images/weixin.png" alt="android"> <span>微信</span> </span> </p> </div> <p class="h-share-content-cancel">取消</p> </div> <div class="h-share-browser"> <div class="h-share-browser-content"> <p class="h-share-browser-tip">点击确定复制下方链接，去粘贴发送给好友或者朋友圈：</p> <p class="h-share-browser-link"></p> </div> <p class="h-share-browser-cancel">确定</p> </div> <div class="h-share-weixin"> <img src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/images/line.png" alt=""> <div class="h-share-weixin-content"> <p class="h-share-weixin-content-line1">分享给好友</p> <p class="h-share-weixin-content-line2"> <span>1. 点击右上<b class='icon'>···</b>分享给好友</span> </p> <p class="h-share-weixin-content-line3"> <span>2. 点击下方<span class='text'>确定</span>按钮即可复制链接，分享链接给好友或发朋友圈</span> </p> </div> <p class="h-share-weixin-confirm">确定</p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="custom-service"> <p>客服热线 <a href="tel:400-671-1818">400-671-1818</a></p> <p class="beian">沪ICP备15006920号-8</p> </div> <div class="toast-wrap"> <span class="toast-msg"></span> </div> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/jquery.min.js" charset="gbk"></script> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/require.min.js" charset="gbk"></script> <script> var getQueryString = function (parme) { var reg = new RegExp("(^|&)" + parme + "=([^&]*)(&|$)", "i"); var r = window.location.search.substr(1).match(reg); if (r != null) return unescape(r[2]); return null; }; require(['//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/js/detailShare.js?v=202302151956'], function (share) { share.init(); }) </script> </div> </div> </div> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/require.min.js"></script> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/js/whyConfig.js?v=201612221505"></script> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/js/whyapp/cookie.v202209.js?v=20240523" charset="gb2312"></script>  <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/picture-carousel-wap.js?v=20240409" charset="gbk"></script> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/js/article-content.js?v=20240104" charset="utf-8"></script> <script> jQuery(function(jQuery) { var text = $('.bar-nav .title').text() if(text.length > 6){ $('.bar-nav .title').text(text.substring(0, 6)+'...') } }) </script> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/js/seo_keyword.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <script src="https://s9.cnzz.com/z_stat.php?id=1280674193&web_id=1280674193"></script>  <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/mysteel_public/js/statistics.js?v=20231225" defer charset="gbk"></script> <script src="//a.mysteelcdn.com/common/permissions/copyRight.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </body> </html>

CINXE.COM

Mysteel半年报：2024下半年国内再生铝合金锭市场预计先抑后扬-我的钢铁网