实探深圳水贝！高金价下黄金企业业绩承压_新浪财经

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value="all"> <input type="hidden" name="col" value="1_7"> <input type="hidden" name="from" value="channel"> <input type="hidden" name="ie" value="utf-8"> </form> </div> </div>  <h1 class="main-title">实探深圳水贝！高金价下黄金企业业绩承压</h1>   <script type="text/javascript" src="//news.sina.com.cn/js/87/20110714/205/sinalib.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="//n.sinaimg.cn/ent/mainpage/js/pl/weiboCard.js" charset="utf-8"></script>  <div class="top-bar-wrap" id="top_bar_wrap"> <div class="top-bar ani" id="top_bar"> <div class="top-bar-inner clearfix"> <div class="second-title">实探深圳水贝！高金价下黄金企业业绩承压</div> <div class="date-source" data-sudaclick="content_media_p"> <span class="date">2024年11月27日 21:50</span> <span class="source ent-source">证券时报</span></div> <div class="page-tools" data-sudaclick="blk_share"> <span class="tool-icon tool-audio first"><a class="fapp" ani-click='scaleDes' ani-hover='bounceFromTop' node-type='audio-pop' data-sudaclick="sf_cjapp_yybbicon_p" 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class="sinaads" data-ad-pdps="PDPS000000060745"></ins> <script>(sinaads = window.sinaads || []).push({})</script>  </div>      <div class="article" id="artibody">           <p>　　在高金价的冲击之下，近期多家港股上市的黄金珠宝企业披露的业绩显示，营收同比普遍出现下滑。</p> <p>　　近段时间以来，国际金价较高位已有所回落，但整体波动依旧较大。证券时报记者实探我国黄金珠宝集散地深圳水贝市场发现，正值年底的“黄金销售期”，市场人气依旧很高，但相较于去年同期，消费者还是显得有些谨慎。</p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img id="1" src="//n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/51/w550h301/20241127/f9d3-8018d38a3bffa144d15b9fc6e692e97c.jpg" alt=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p>　　国信期货研究咨询团队在接受证券时报记者采访时认为，中长期来看，尽管特朗普竞选成功带动美元走强，对贵金属价格形成一定压制，但市场对其贸易保护主义和去全球化政策存在担忧，且美元高位震荡或伴随新兴市场资本外流等连锁反应，均有望进一步提升贵金属风险溢价支撑力度，从而抬升中长期金价中枢。</p> <p cms-style="align-Center">　　<font cms-style="strong-Bold align-Center">高金价冲击之下：多家黄金珠宝企业营收下滑</font></p> <p>　　在金价处于高位的影响下，近期多家港股上市的黄金珠宝企业披露业绩，营收同比普遍出现下滑。</p> <p>　　比如，黄金珠宝龙头企业周大福珠宝11月26日晚间披露的2025财政年度上半年业绩（2024年4月1日至9月30日）显示，2025财政年度上半年，集团营业额同比下降20.4%至394.08亿港元。</p> <p>　　2025财政年度上半年，周大福珠宝内地直营店的同店销售下跌25.4%。另外，由于近年开设的门店占比较高，按同店计算，加盟零售点于期内的销售下跌19.6%。其间，香港及澳门的同店销售下跌30.8%，其中，香港同店销售的跌幅为27.6%，澳门则为40.7%。</p> <p>　　门店变化方面，周大福珠宝于今年9月在内地拥有接近7000个周大福珠宝零售点，其间净关闭239个门店。</p> <p>　　另一家港股上市的黄金珠宝企业六福集团11月26日晚间披露的中期业绩公告表示，截至2024年9月30日止六个月，集团收入为54.5亿港元，较去年同期减少27.2%，主要由于期内金价屡创新高造成黄金产品销售下跌。另外，金价飚升导致期内黄金对冲由去年的收益5500万港元转为损失2.3亿港元。经营溢利因此减少53.0%至5.36亿港元，经营溢利率下降至9.8%。此外，集团期内溢利下降55.7%至4.17亿港元，若撇除黄金对冲损失，经调整后之期内溢利跌幅则收窄至27.1%，为6.47亿港元。</p> <p>　　六福集团还表示，受惠于金价上升，集团整体毛利率上升4.9个百分点至32.7%，毛利则下跌14.4%至17.8亿港元。</p> <p>　　店铺变化方面，上述期间六福集团净减少175间店铺。</p> <p>　　不久前，港股黄金珠宝上市公司谢瑞麟披露的中期业绩（截至2024年9月30日止6个月）公告显示，上述期间营业额为8.644亿港元，同比减少约35.8%。</p> <p>　　谢瑞麟方面表示，刷新历史纪录的金价令消费者延迟购买或减少购买24K金产品，集团于上述期间的销售业绩受到较大影响。</p> <p>　　作为应对，谢瑞麟策略性地关闭了位于中国内地及香港的多家亏损及表现较逊的零售店，审慎扩大中国内地的加盟店网络并大幅降低宝石首饰库存，以改善集团的盈利能力及流动资金。</p> <p cms-style="align-Center">　　<font cms-style="strong-Bold align-Center">正值年底“黄金销售期”  记者实探水贝市场</font></p> <p>　　日前，金价已较历史高位有所回落，黄金珠宝零售市场的经营情况如何呢？</p> <p>　　“黄金饰品的克价从前段时间最高近630元回落到600元左右，最近又涨回到616元。”在深圳水贝金展珠宝广场，从事黄金饰品销售多年的陈经理对记者表示，“最近周末的客流量有一些回升，但跟去年同期的高峰相比还是有明显差别。”深圳水贝是我国著名的黄金珠宝集散地之一，黄金珠宝批发和零售商铺林立。</p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img id="4" src="//n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/284/w550h534/20241127/adf7-59578417c77fa7d0adef7872f8f7530e.jpg" alt=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p>　　记者在水贝多个大型黄金珠宝广场看到，不少消费者正在选购黄金饰品，多数都是因为准备春节回乡送礼，但由于金价处于高位，都会降低自己的消费“预算”。有商家表示，每年在元旦春节前后都是黄金销售旺季，每年也会在开门红期间加大贵金属的营销力度，但今年的金价居高不下，一些用户会倾向于在银行购买投资金条收藏，或购买投资金条进行首饰加工。 </p> <p>　　与此同时，记者发现黄金回收市场也随之发生变化。11月27日，有店家打出的黄金回收价格是每克599元，但销售的价格是每克616元。“以前，水贝这边的黄回收价格是当天金价减去10元，现在回收的价差有所拉大，很大程度与之前回收量大增有关。”陈经理表示。</p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img id="5" src="//n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/441/w550h691/20241127/3999-14d00b358203e9cc62ae5912715fca5c.jpg" alt=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p>　　不过，由于金价已较高位有所回落，一些顾客仍处于观望状态。一位黄金珠宝行业资深销售人士向记者表示，最近一些顾客认为金价可能会继续跌，因此会继续观望一下再买。</p> <p>　　据统计，今年以来，国际金价累计上涨超32%，年内创新高次数超过30次。进入11月后，金价走势震荡加剧。金价明显波动引发银行对相关黄金投资产品的调整。记者梳理发现，已有<span id=stock_sh601939><a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh601939/nc.shtml class="keyword" target=_blank data-sudaclick="content_marketkeywords_p">建设银行</a></span><span id=quote_sh601939></span>、<span id=stock_sz000001><a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sz000001/nc.shtml class="keyword" target=_blank data-sudaclick="content_marketkeywords_p">平安银行</a></span><span id=quote_sz000001></span>等多家银行于近期上调黄金投资产品风险等级。此外，今年以来，还有多家银行陆续上调了黄金投资相关产品的起购点。</p> <p>　　在受访人士看来，年内多家银行调整黄金投资业务门槛，主要原因是近期受国际形势影响，黄金价格波动比较大，投资风险显著提升。</p> <p>　　一些黄金珠宝公司也预期后续经营情况有望改善。比如，周大福珠宝方面表示，公司致力于保持灵活变通及时刻留意市场动态和消费趋势，以便在不确定的市场环境中持续调整增长策略。公司将财务和营运资源优先投放在增强业务韧性及竞争力上。周大福珠宝方面表示，基于周大福珠宝当前的观察，加上预期2025财政年度下半年同店销售跌幅收窄及关店节奏放缓，若撇除外部因素及意料之外的情况，预期业务基本面将较上半年逐步改善。</p> <p cms-style="align-Center">　　<font cms-style="strong-Bold align-Center">金价后续如何走？</font></p> <p>　　高盛分析师近日发布2025年展望报告。报告称，“在全球央行黄金买盘的结构性支持和美联储降息的周期性支持下，维持对黄金3000美元/盎司的2025年年底目标价。”黄金是应对通胀和地缘政治风险的首选资产。</p> <p>　　国信期货研究咨询团队在接受证券时报记者采访时认为，黄金市场近期的调整，既反映了市场风险偏好的快速变化，也显示了投资者对美联储降息预期的重新评估。2024年下半年，黄金价格一度因美联储鸽派立场和地缘政治风险的双重推动创下新高。然而，随着中东局势的缓和和特朗普胜选后美元的走强，黄金价格进入调整阶段。尤其是以色列与黎巴嫩的停火协议草案推动市场避险情绪显著下降，直接压制了黄金的风险溢价。</p> <p>　　国信期货研究咨询团队认为，依据美联储最新公布的会议纪要，当下谨慎宽松基调显现，未来政策路径复杂性有所提高。美联储在11月7日的货币政策会议上决定降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间调整至4.5%—4.75%，延续了渐进降息的路径。这一决策反映了美联储对当前经济稳健状态的谨慎乐观态度，以及对通胀压力控制的意图。会议纪要显示，尽管美国经济面临劳动力市场降温和部分行业增长放缓的挑战，但整体仍维持稳健，失业率保持低水平，核心通胀指标虽高于目标但已回落，为货币政策的灵活调整提供了空间。在政策前景讨论中，美联储官员强调货币政策需紧密依赖数据驱动，而非预设路径。部分官员认为，若经济数据持续符合预期，逐步向中性政策立场过渡是合适的；但也有观点指出，若通胀放缓或劳动力市场显著降温，可能需要暂停降息甚至加速宽松。这体现了政策制定者在平衡通胀与经济增长风险之间的艰难抉择。</p> <p>　　国信期货研究咨询团队认为，未来美联储的货币政策走向将受到多种复杂因素的影响。一方面，全球经济复苏的不稳定性以及美国经济增长动力的减弱，可能会促使美联储保持宽松的政策立场，以此来支持就业和经济活动。另一方面，特朗普政府连任所可能实施的财政扩张政策、减税措施以及新的关税政策，可能会增加通胀压力和市场波动性。这些宏观经济因素将成为美联储制定未来政策的关键考量，同时也为市场预测带来了一定的不确定性。芝商所FedWatch显示，市场预期12月降息25BP的概率回升至66%附近，未来或仍面临一定调整。</p> <p>　　展望未来，国信期货研究咨询团队认为，地缘冲突所带来的风险溢价对金价的支撑力量有所减弱，但俄乌局势尚不明朗，市场仍需持续关注地缘局势潜在变化所带来的避险情绪快速转变。同时，目前距离12月美联储议息会议仅剩三周，未来美国经济数据对于降息预期的指引也可能会导致利率层面对金银价格的指引力量快速变化，短期黄金或仍难走出震荡区间。中长期来看，尽管特朗普竞选成功带动美元走强，对贵金属价格形成一定压制，但市场对其贸易保护主义和去全球化政策存在担忧，且美元高位震荡或伴随新兴市场资本外流等连锁反应，均有望进一步提升贵金属风险溢价支撑力度，从而抬升中长期金价中枢。</p>       <style> .appendQr_wrap{border:1px solid #E6E6E6;padding:8px;} .appendQr_normal{float:left;} .appendQr_normal img{width:100px;} .appendQr_normal_txt{float:left;font-size:20px;line-height:100px;padding-left:20px;color:#333;} </style> <div class="clearfix appendQr_wrap"> <div class="appendQr_normal"><img src="//n.sinaimg.cn/finance/cece9e13/20240627/655959900_20240627.png" /></div> <div class="appendQr_normal_txt">海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div> </div>    <p class="article-editor">责任编辑：王若云 </p>  </div>   <div class="article-bottom clearfix" id='article-bottom'>  <div style="margin: 20px auto 15px; font-size:14px;"> <ins class="sinaads" data-ad-pdps="PDPS000000067953" data-ad-width="880" data-ad-height="30" 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