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data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="AnchoredHero" class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__SfYQE"><style></style><div data-component="mdc-c-background-image" class="mdc-c-bg-image___GJdv1_2734c4f background-image-article-default ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__parallax-container__fZ7Iq"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__gradient__Uu21n"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__wrapper-content__XOe9C"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-1 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-10"><div><h1 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-2 mck-u-animation-slide-down ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__heading__bv6rL"><div>Why China’s consumers will continue to surprise the world</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2015-05-01T00:00:00Z">May 1, 2015</time> | Book Excerpt</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Jeffrey Towson<span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Lola Woetzel</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Fears about China’s slowing economy are overblown, authors Jeffrey Towson and Jonathan Woetzel argue in this adapted excerpt from the follow-up to their <em>The One Hour China Book</em>.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Fstrategy%20and%20corporate%20finance%2Four%20insights%2Fwhy%20chinas%20consumers%20will%20continue%20to%20surprise%20the%20world%2Fwhy%20chinas%20consumers%20will%20continue%20to%20surprise%20the%20world.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="why-chinas consumers will continue to surprise the world" data-layer-report-name="why-chinas consumers will continue to surprise the world>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (PDF-348 KB)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>China has an awesome</strong> consumer story. Yet lately you can’t pick up a newspaper, go online, or watch television without hearing continual moaning about the country’s slowing economic growth and the need for “rebalancing.” The reality is that Chinese consumers are going to continue to increase in wealth and complexity. And if you’re worried the country’s economic importance is declining, you’re probably looking at its performance the wrong way.</p> <h2>Don’t worry about consumer spending as a percentage of GDP</h2> <p>As in most developing Asian economies, China’s early growth was based on savings, investment, and exports. You get your population to save, move to the cities, work in factories, and make stuff. This is sold, and cash is brought back home for investment. Plus, you get some foreign investment as well. This process enabled China to develop its infrastructure largely with its own cash. That, by the way, is not the norm. Developing economies typically borrow from foreigners and then default—for example, American states such as Mississippi and Florida were chronic defaulters on foreign debt as they initially developed.</p> <p>One of the downsides of this investment-first approach is that it makes consumption look small and often like it’s shrinking. Chinese consumption decreased from approximately 51 percent of gross domestic product in 1985 to 43 percent in 1995, 38 percent in 2005, and 34 percent in 2013. By comparison, consumption is around 61 percent in Japan and about 68 percent in the United States. In fact, China’s small and decreasing consumption percentage is one reason why people keep talking about “rebalancing”—the need for the economy to become driven more by consumer spending than investment and exports.</p>  <p>Our position? Don’t worry about this stuff.</p> <p>First, from 2000 to 2010, the size of the Chinese economy more than doubled.<a href="#" class="link-footnote" rel="#footnote1"><sup>1</sup></a> <span class="tooltip" id="footnote1" style="display:none"><span class="footnote-content"><span class="footnote-number">1.</span><span class="footnote-text">For more on the factors driving China’s economic growth, see Jeffrey Towson and Jonathan Woetzel, “<a href="/insights/winning_in_emerging_markets/all_you_need_to_know_about_business_in_china">All you need to know about business in China</a>,” April 2014. </span><span class="clear"></span></span><span class="footnote-bottom"></span></span> So consumption grew from around $650 billion to almost $1.4 trillion. Regardless of its relative percentage of GDP, China’s consumption has been growing faster than just about any other country’s in absolute terms. Second, just getting consumer spending back to 43 percent of GDP, the level in 1995, would have a huge impact on “rebalancing.” It would also create the largest consumer market in the world. Third, most of these numbers are wildly inaccurate. Consumer spending is nearly impossible to measure in such a big, complicated economy. Combining a vague number with two other big vague numbers (investment and net exports) is very fuzzy math. Until economists start putting uncertainty estimates on their China calculations, relative percentages aren’t worth paying much attention to.</p> <h2>Household income is what matters, and it’s great</h2> <p>The number you really want to keep in mind is household income. You can’t have consumption without income. And here’s where it gets really awesome. China’s household income is huge. It is now likely above $5 trillion a year. Plus, lots of income is unreported, so this is really the lower boundary for true household income. Developing economies—especially the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China—are frequently grouped together, but Chinese consumers dwarf all the others in terms of household income (Exhibit 1).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>China’s total household income dwarfs other emerging markets.</div></h5></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/why%20chinas%20consumers%20will%20continue%20to%20surprise%20the%20world/svgz_onehourchina_ex1_revised.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/why%20chinas%20consumers%20will%20continue%20to%20surprise%20the%20world/svgz_onehourchina_ex1_revised.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h2>Rising discretionary spending is the exciting part</h2> <p>Discretionary spending is buying the stuff you like but don’t need. Or you only sort of need. And, fortunately, people seem to have an endless appetite for everything from entertainment to skiing to caffe lattes. Chinese citizens are now moving beyond being able to only afford the basics of life, and their discretionary spending is taking off. Growth in spending on annual discretionary categories in China is forecast to exceed 7 percent between 2010 and 2020, and growth of 6 to 7 percent annually is expected in a second category of “seminecessities.” Both of these categories are growing faster than spending on actual necessities, which are expected to grow around 5 percent a year, about the same as expected GDP growth (Exhibit 2).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Discretionary categories are showing the fastest growth.</div></h5></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/why%20chinas%20consumers%20will%20continue%20to%20surprise%20the%20world/svgz_onehourchina_ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/why%20chinas%20consumers%20will%20continue%20to%20surprise%20the%20world/svgz_onehourchina_ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Finally, an important related issue is the Chinese tradition of saving. If we compare spending and saving rates across the emerging markets, we see a spike in savings in China. That spike is fairly understandable. First, it’s cultural. Second, they are precautionary savings—no social safety net means if you get sick, it’s all on you. Third, Chinese savings are not unique. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan all hit 30-percent-plus savings rates in their early development. And fourth, without much of a consumer-finance system, it’s tough to use debt to hit truly spectacular consumption levels. After all, a vacation home or car may cost the equivalent of a year’s income.</p> <hr/> <p>That’s our rant on China’s macro consumer situation. Basically, we believe it remains a great story. It may be volatile. It’s also somewhat unpredictable. But you just don’t get a consumer growth story this good anywhere else.</p> <p><em>This is an edited excerpt from</em> The One Hour China Consumer Book: Five Short Stories That Explain the Brutal Fight for One Billion Chinese Consumers <em>(Towson Group, 2015). For more details about the book, visit <a target="_blank" href="http://www.onehourchina.com/">onehourchina.com</a>.</em></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Jeffrey Towson</strong> is a managing partner of the investment firm Towson Capital, and <strong>Lola Woetzel</strong> is a director in McKinsey’s Shanghai office. They are both professors at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management in Beijing.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_2734c4f" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-3 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/how-asia-can-boost-productivity-and-economic-growth" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-howa-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="Woetzel_transcriptV2_1536x1536_Original" class="picture-uniqueKey-howa-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/how%20asia%20can%20boost%20productivity%20and%20economic%20growth/woetzel_transcriptv2_1536x1536_original.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Video - <i>MGI Research</i></span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/how-asia-can-boost-productivity-and-economic-growth" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>How Asia can boost productivity and economic growth</div></a></h6></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/what-could-happen-in-china-in-2015" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-what-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="China2015_1536x1536_Original" class="picture-uniqueKey-what-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/what%20could%20happen%20in%20china%20in%202015/china2015_1536x1536_original.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Commentary</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/what-could-happen-in-china-in-2015" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>What could happen in China in 2015?</div></a></h6></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/a-pocket-guide-to-doing-business-in-china" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-apoc-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="China_business_pocket_guide_1536x1536_Original" class="picture-uniqueKey-apoc-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/a%20pocket%20guide%20to%20doing%20business%20in%20china/china_business_pocket_guide_1536x1536_original.jpg?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Commentary</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/a-pocket-guide-to-doing-business-in-china" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>A pocket guide to doing business in China</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Why Chinas consumers will continue to surprise the world","displayName":"Why Chinas consumers will continue to surprise the world","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"2c40a940-d115-497c-8f14-3c6331637a1b","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Why China\u0026rsquo;s consumers will continue to surprise the world"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Fears about China\u0026rsquo;s slowing economy are overblown, authors Jeffrey Towson and Jonathan Woetzel argue in this adapted excerpt from the follow-up to their \u003cem\u003eThe One Hour China Book\u003c/em\u003e."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2015-05-01T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]] \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eChina has an awesome\u003c/strong\u003e consumer story. Yet lately you can\u0026rsquo;t pick up a newspaper, go online, or watch television without hearing continual moaning about the country\u0026rsquo;s slowing economic growth and the need for \u0026ldquo;rebalancing.\u0026rdquo; The reality is that Chinese consumers are going to continue to increase in wealth and complexity. And if you\u0026rsquo;re worried the country\u0026rsquo;s economic importance is declining, you\u0026rsquo;re probably looking at its performance the wrong way.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eDon\u0026rsquo;t worry about consumer spending as a percentage of GDP\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs in most developing Asian economies, China\u0026rsquo;s early growth was based on savings, investment, and exports. You get your population to save, move to the cities, work in factories, and make stuff. This is sold, and cash is brought back home for investment. Plus, you get some foreign investment as well. This process enabled China to develop its infrastructure largely with its own cash. That, by the way, is not the norm. Developing economies typically borrow from foreigners and then default\u0026mdash;for example, American states such as Mississippi and Florida were chronic defaulters on foreign debt as they initially developed.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOne of the downsides of this investment-first approach is that it makes consumption look small and often like it\u0026rsquo;s shrinking. Chinese consumption decreased from approximately 51 percent of gross domestic product in 1985 to 43 percent in 1995, 38 percent in 2005, and 34 percent in 2013. By comparison, consumption is around 61 percent in Japan and about 68 percent in the United States. In fact, China\u0026rsquo;s small and decreasing consumption percentage is one reason why people keep talking about \u0026ldquo;rebalancing\u0026rdquo;\u0026mdash;the need for the economy to become driven more by consumer spending than investment and exports.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Disruptor3UP dis3]]\n\u003cp\u003eOur position? Don\u0026rsquo;t worry about this stuff.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFirst, from 2000 to 2010, the size of the Chinese economy more than doubled.\u003ca rel=\"#footnote1\" onclick=\"return false;\" class=\"link-footnote\" href=\"#\"\u003e\u003csup\u003e1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/a\u003e \u003cspan style=\"display: none;\" id=\"footnote1\" class=\"tooltip\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-content\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-number\"\u003e1.\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-text\"\u003eFor more on the factors driving China\u0026rsquo;s economic growth, see Jeffrey Towson and Jonathan Woetzel, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/insights/winning_in_emerging_markets/all_you_need_to_know_about_business_in_china\"\u003eAll you need to know about business in China\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; April 2014.\n\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"clear\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-bottom\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e So consumption grew from around $650 billion to almost $1.4 trillion. Regardless of its relative percentage of GDP, China\u0026rsquo;s consumption has been growing faster than just about any other country\u0026rsquo;s in absolute terms. Second, just getting consumer spending back to 43 percent of GDP, the level in 1995, would have a huge impact on \u0026ldquo;rebalancing.\u0026rdquo; It would also create the largest consumer market in the world. Third, most of these numbers are wildly inaccurate. Consumer spending is nearly impossible to measure in such a big, complicated economy. Combining a vague number with two other big vague numbers (investment and net exports) is very fuzzy math. Until economists start putting uncertainty estimates on their China calculations, relative percentages aren\u0026rsquo;t worth paying much attention to.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eHousehold income is what matters, and it\u0026rsquo;s great\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe number you really want to keep in mind is household income. You can\u0026rsquo;t have consumption without income. And here\u0026rsquo;s where it gets really awesome. China\u0026rsquo;s household income is huge. It is now likely above $5 trillion a year. Plus, lots of income is unreported, so this is really the lower boundary for true household income. Developing economies\u0026mdash;especially the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China\u0026mdash;are frequently grouped together, but Chinese consumers dwarf all the others in terms of household income (Exhibit 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\u003ch2\u003eRising discretionary spending is the exciting part\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDiscretionary spending is buying the stuff you like but don\u0026rsquo;t need. Or you only sort of need. And, fortunately, people seem to have an endless appetite for everything from entertainment to skiing to caffe lattes. Chinese citizens are now moving beyond being able to only afford the basics of life, and their discretionary spending is taking off. Growth in spending on annual discretionary categories in China is forecast to exceed 7 percent between 2010 and 2020, and growth of 6 to 7 percent annually is expected in a second category of \u0026ldquo;seminecessities.\u0026rdquo; Both of these categories are growing faster than spending on actual necessities, which are expected to grow around 5 percent a year, about the same as expected GDP growth (Exhibit 2).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 2]]\n\u003cp\u003eFinally, an important related issue is the Chinese tradition of saving. If we compare spending and saving rates across the emerging markets, we see a spike in savings in China. That spike is fairly understandable. First, it\u0026rsquo;s cultural. Second, they are precautionary savings\u0026mdash;no social safety net means if you get sick, it\u0026rsquo;s all on you. Third, Chinese savings are not unique. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan all hit 30-percent-plus savings rates in their early development. And fourth, without much of a consumer-finance system, it\u0026rsquo;s tough to use debt to hit truly spectacular consumption levels. After all, a vacation home or car may cost the equivalent of a year\u0026rsquo;s income.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat\u0026rsquo;s our rant on China\u0026rsquo;s macro consumer situation. Basically, we believe it remains a great story. It may be volatile. It\u0026rsquo;s also somewhat unpredictable. But you just don\u0026rsquo;t get a consumer growth story this good anywhere else.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis is an edited excerpt from\u003c/em\u003e The One Hour China Consumer Book: Five Short Stories That Explain the Brutal Fight for One Billion Chinese Consumers \u003cem\u003e(Towson Group, 2015). For more details about the book, visit \u003ca href=\"http://www.onehourchina.com/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003eonehourchina.com\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Book Excerpt"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2015-05-01T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eJeffrey Towson\u003c/strong\u003e is a managing partner of the investment firm Towson Capital, and \u003cstrong\u003eLola Woetzel\u003c/strong\u003e is a director in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Shanghai office. They are both professors at Peking University\u0026rsquo;s Guanghua School of Management in Beijing.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"109A2053E6BC43D8A325A251B567A7E9","name":"Jeffrey Towson","authorTitle":{"value":"Jeffrey Towson"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"548F5B4C050F45D0B61B709203DA7E52","name":"Lola Woetzel","authorTitle":{"value":"Lola Woetzel"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Lola Woetzel","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/lola woetzel/lola woetzel_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"MGI Research"}},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"How Asia can boost productivity and economic growth"},"url":{"path":"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/how-asia-can-boost-productivity-and-economic-growth"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Video"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Video"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Growth in China and other parts of Asia will depend on skills training, more process mechanization, and better resource use, says McKinsey director Jonathan Woetzel."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/employment and growth/how asia can boost productivity and economic growth/woetzel_transcriptv2_1536x1536_original.jpg","alt":"Woetzel_transcriptV2_1536x1536_Original"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"What could happen in China in 2015?"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/what-could-happen-in-china-in-2015"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Commentary"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Commentary"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"What do you get when you add slower economic growth, greater volatility, and rising competition to more international flights and genuine Chinese innovation? 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