Biopharma and medtech markets advance toward equilibrium: 2024 life sciences cluster analysis

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href="http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://endpts.com/sp/biopharma-and-medtech-markets-advance-toward-equilibrium-2024-life-sciences-cluster-analysis/&title=Biopharma%20and%20medtech%20markets%20advance%20toward%20equilibrium%3A%202024%20life%20sciences%20cluster%20analysis&source=https://endpts.com/" title="Share on LinkedIn" class="epn_byline_linkedin" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Biopharma%20and%20medtech%20markets%20advance%20toward%20equilibrium%3A%202024%20life%20sciences%20cluster%20analysis - https://endpts.com/sp/biopharma-and-medtech-markets-advance-toward-equilibrium-2024-life-sciences-cluster-analysis/" title="Share on Twitter" class="epn_byline_twitter" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="epn_section_title epn_text_color_yellow-dark"><span>SPONSORED</span></div> <div class="epn_time">October 7, 2024 06:00 AM EDT</div> </div> <h1>Biopharma and medtech markets advance toward equilibrium: 2024 life sciences cluster analysis</h1> <div class="epn_author_box byline_author"> <div class="single_byline_author"> <div class="epn_image" style="background-image: url('https://endpts.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Mark-Bruso-Headshot.jpg');"></div> <div class="epn_text"> <h3>Mark Bruso</h3> <h4>Director, Boston and National Life Sciences Research, JLL</h4> </div> </div> </div> <div class="epn_content"> <p>What are the fundamental building blocks of major life sciences clusters in the U.S.? Which markets are home to the best talent pools? What macro forces are driving life sciences decision-making? We answer these questions and more for life sciences companies, investors and developers in the 2024 Life Sciences Real Estate Perspective and Cluster Analysis.</p> <p>Despite experiencing a prolonged slump, biopharma and medtech real estate fundamentals point to recovery and long-term growth ahead. The central question that remains is when, not if, the sector will begin its recovery, returning to the robust growth seen over the past two decades.</p> <p>In addition to exploring top clusters for biomanufacturing, medtech, talent and AI, the 2024 Perspective highlights key growth drivers for Canada and LATAM, and delineates 10 critical observations about the current state and future outlook of the U.S. life sciences real estate market:</p> <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol> <li><strong>What has changed in a year?</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">In the past year, the pre-existing supply-demand imbalance has intensified in most major lab markets, forcing rents down nearly 9%, which is where they were in the first quarter of 2022. We project this supply super cycle will end within the next six to 12 months, depending on the market, and will then be followed by a period with limited new supply and repurposing of older assets that will boost recovery.</p> <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="2"> <li><strong>Interest rates are the “canary in the coal mine”</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">Biotech is an interest-rate-sensitive sector. For demand to recover, interest rates will need to come down. There is a strong correlation between biotech equity values, venture capital funding and real estate leasing activity, and lower rates should lead to improved public valuations and increased VC investment, ultimately driving demand for lab space.</p> <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="3"> <li><strong>Venture funding has morphed and so has demand</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">While overall life sciences venture funding is up 34% in 2024, the nature of funding has changed. Early-stage funding for pre-clinical assets has declined while mega rounds of over $100 million now represent 60% of venture inflows, up from 40% a year ago. This concentration of funding in later-stage companies is tempering real estate demand. <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="4"> <li><strong>Tenants extend decision-making and then take less space</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">With less growth capital available, tenants are taking longer to make real estate decisions. The median time on market for tenants in Boston, the Bay Area and San Diego has increased 67%. When deals are signed, tenants are taking less space relative to their funding levels compared to two years ago. One potential headwind in real estate demand are elevated levels of acquisitions. <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="5"> <li><strong>Large pharma seeks to optimize, not maximize</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">Major pharmaceutical companies are focused on optimizing their real estate holdings rather than expanding. Of the 30 large pharma real estate moves tracked in H1 2024, 67% resulted in a reduction of space. However, pharma leaders expect increases in headcount, footprint, and locations by 2030. <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="6"> <li><strong>Growing share of all sector VC dollars heading to AI/ML companies</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">Artificial intelligence and machine learning are becoming increasingly important in biopharma, with the potential to yield billions in annual savings. AI/ML venture funding in life sciences exceeded the 2023 full-year total in just the first six months of 2024. It now represents 12% of all life sciences venture funding, offering ample opportunity for growth for the sector. <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="7"> <li><strong>This downturn is different than any other this century</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">The current market downcycle is markedly different from previous ones experienced by the sector. Vacancy rates in nearly every major market are at record highs much earlier in the cycle compared to past downturns, primarily driven by a mismatched supply cycle. <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="8"> <li><strong>The return to market equilibrium will vary widely by geography</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">When the life sciences real estate sector recovers, it will not do so uniformly across all markets. Factors like excess supply delivered during the downturn pre-existing tenant base, and quality of landlords will influence how quickly different submarkets return to equilibrium. Established clusters with strong fundamentals are likely to recover faster. <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="9"> <li><strong>If we resume a pre-pandemic trendline, the sector will fall short of absorbing the oversupply</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">We will see the speed of recoveries contingent on some mix of location, sponsorship and asset quality. Metrics like biotech equity values, venture deployment, scientific leaps and revenue generation will all interplay in the coming years to determine what is the actual need for lab R&D space across the country. <ol> <li style="list-style-type: none;"> <ol start="10"> <li><strong>If we resume a pre-pandemic trendline, the sector will fall short of absorbing the oversupply</strong></li> </ol> </li> </ol> <p style="padding-left: 40px;">Despite near-term challenges, there are numerous reasons to expect long-term growth in the life sciences sector. These include continued growth in FDA approvals, increased patent innovation, projected growth in global pharmaceutical sales and record levels of venture capital dry powder waiting to be deployed. <p><strong>While the current state of the sector may feel challenging, the report emphasizes that the long-term outlook remains positive. Established clusters with strong fundamentals and high-quality assets are expected to lead the recovery.</strong> <p>For investors, developers and occupiers in the life sciences real estate sector, the key takeaway is to remain patient while positioning for the eventual upswing. Understanding local market dynamics, focusing on quality assets in established clusters and keeping an eye on emerging trends like AI/ML integration will be crucial for success in the evolving life sciences landscape. <p><a href="https://www.us.jll.com/en/trends-and-insights/research/life-sciences-real-estate-outlook/?utm_source=endpoints&utm_medium=synd&&utm_campaign=gl-us-ind-life-life-sciences-0924" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener"><strong>Access the 2024 Life Sciences Real Estate Perspective and Cluster Analysis to discover which biopharma, medtech and biomanufacturing clusters are thriving.</strong></a> <p><em>These top clusters are just the tip of the iceberg. JLL’s proprietary methodology utilizes a variety of data points to evaluate top markets. Reach out to </em><a href="https://www.us.jll.com/en/people/travis-mccready/?utm_source=endpoints&utm_medium=synd&utm_campaign=lifesciencesresearch&utm_content=2024clusterreport" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener"><em>Travis McCready</em></a><em>, Head of Life Sciences, Americas Markets and Chair of the Global Life Sciences Advisory Board at JLL to explore these clusters further and discover other geographies that made our list.</em> <p><em>Source: JLL Research, 2024 Life Sciences Real Estate Perspective and Cluster Analysis</em> <div class="epn_tag_box"> </div> <div class="epn_author_box"> <h3 class="epn_section_title">Author</h3> <div class="single_author"> <div class="epn_image" style="background-image: url('https://endpts.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Mark-Bruso-Headshot.jpg');"></div> <div class="epn_text"> <h3>Mark Bruso</h3> <h4>Director, Boston and National Life Sciences Research, JLL</h4> <div class="epn_social"> <div class="epn_left"> <a href="mailto:mark.bruso@jll.com" 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Biopharma and medtech markets advance toward equilibrium: 2024 life sciences cluster analysis – Endpoints News