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Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences

<!DOCTYPE html> <HTML lang="en"> <HEAD> <TITLE>Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences</TITLE> <meta charset="utf-8"> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://maxcdn.bootstrapcdn.com/bootstrap/4.0.0/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-Gn5384xqQ1aoWXA+058RXPxPg6fy4IWvTNh0E263XmFcJlSAwiGgFAW/dAiS6JXm" crossorigin="anonymous"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="/css/font-awesome.min.css"> <!-- <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/fork-awesome@1.2.0/css/fork-awes ome.min.css" integrity="sha256-XoaMnoYC5TH6/+ihMEnospgm0J1PM/nioxbOUdnM8HY=" crossorigin="anonymous">--> <!-- <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://site-assets.fontawesome.com/releases/v6.2.0/css/all.css" />--> <link href="/css/normalnew.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link href="/css/pushy.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <link rel="icon" type="image.jpg" href="/favicon.ico"> <!--[if lte IE 9]> <script src="/css/html5shiv.min.js"></script> <script src="/css/respond.min.js"></script> <![endif]--> <script type='text/javascript'> var captchaContainer = null; var loadCaptcha = function() { captchaContainer = grecaptcha.render('captcha_container', { 'sitekey' : '6LdQebIaAAAAACSKxvbloyrkQ_q-MqhOAGgD5PQV', 'callback' : function(response) { console.log(response); } }); }; </script> <META NAME="handle" CONTENT="RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190030"><META NAME="description" CONTENT="Downloadable! We focus on the effect of preference specifications on the current day valuation of future outcomes. Specifically, we analyze the effect of risk aversion, ambiguity aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution on the willingness to pay to avoid climate change risk. The first part of the paper analyzes a general disaster (jump) risk model with a constant arrival rate of disasters. This provides useful intuition in how preferences influence valuation of long-term risk. The second part of the paper extends this model with a climate model and a temperature dependent arrival rate. Since the model yields closed form solutions up to solving an integral, our model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality of numerical IAMs with several state variables. Introducing Epstein-Zin preferences with an elasticity of substitution higher than one and ambiguity aversion leads to much larger estimates of the social cost of carbon than obtained under power utility. The dominant parameters are the risk aversion coefficient and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Ambiguity aversion is of second order importance."> <META NAME="keywords" CONTENT="Social Cost of Carbon; Ambiguity Aversion; Epstein-Zin preferences; Stochastic Differential Utility; Climate Change"> <META NAME="jel_code" CONTENT="Q51; Q54; G12; G13"> <META NAME="author" CONTENT="Stan Olijslagers & Sweder van Wijnbergen"> <META NAME="author_shortid" CONTENT="pol298; pva412"> <META NAME="title" CONTENT="Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences"> <META NAME="download" CONTENT="1"> <META NAME="freedownload" CONTENT="1"> <META NAME="date" CONTENT="2019-02-02"> <META NAME="citation_publication_date" CONTENT="2019/04/24"> <META NAME="citation_authors" content="Stan Olijslagers; Sweder van Wijnbergen"> <META NAME="citation_title" content="Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences"> <META NAME="citation_abstract" content="We focus on the effect of preference specifications on the current day valuation of future outcomes. Specifically, we analyze the effect of risk aversion, ambiguity aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution on the willingness to pay to avoid climate change risk. The first part of the paper analyzes a general disaster (jump) risk model with a constant arrival rate of disasters. This provides useful intuition in how preferences influence valuation of long-term risk. The second part of the paper extends this model with a climate model and a temperature dependent arrival rate. Since the model yields closed form solutions up to solving an integral, our model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality of numerical IAMs with several state variables. Introducing Epstein-Zin preferences with an elasticity of substitution higher than one and ambiguity aversion leads to much larger estimates of the social cost of carbon than obtained under power utility. The dominant parameters are the risk aversion coefficient and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Ambiguity aversion is of second order importance."> <META NAME="citation_publisher" content="Tinbergen Institute"> <META NAME="citation_journal_title" content="Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers"> <META NAME="citation_keywords" content="Social Cost of Carbon; Ambiguity Aversion; Epstein-Zin preferences; Stochastic Differential Utility; Climate Change"> <META NAME="citation_abstract_html_url" content="https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20190030.html"> <META NAME="citation_abstract_pdf_url" content="https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20190030.html"> <META NAME="redif-type" content="paper"> <META NAME="citation_type" content="redif-paper"> <META NAME="citation_technical_report_number" content="19-030/VI"> <META NAME="citation_year" content="2019"> <META NAME="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <META NAME="twitter:site" content="@repec_org"> <META NAME="twitter:title" content="Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epst"> <META NAME="twitter:description" content="We focus on the effect of preference specifications on the current day valuation of future outcomes. Specifically, we analyze the effect of risk aversion, ambiguity aversion and the elasticity of inte"> <META NAME="twitter:image" content="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/twimage.cgi?p&tin:wpaper:20190030"> <META PROPERTY="og:type" content="article"> <META PROPERTY="og:title" content="Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversio"> <META PROPERTY="og:description" content="We focus on the effect of preference specifications on the current day valuation of future outcomes. Specifically, we analyze the effect of risk aversion, ambiguity aversion and the elasticity of inte"> <META PROPERTY="og:url" content="https://ideas.repec.org//p/tin/wpaper/20190030.html"> <META PROPERTY="og:image" content="https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/twimage.cgi?p&tin:wpaper:20190030"> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@id": "#periodical", "@type": "Periodical", "name": "Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers", "publisher": "Tinbergen Institute", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org/s/tin/wpaper.html", "requiresSubscription": "false" }, { "@id": "#number", "@type": "PublicationIssue", "datePublished": "2019-04-24", "issueNumber": "19-030/VI" }, { "@id": "#article", "@type": "ScholarlyArticle", "name": "Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences", "url": "https://ideas.repec.org//p/tin/wpaper/20190030.html", "description": "We focus on the effect of preference specifications on the current day valuation of future outcomes. Specifically, we analyze the effect of risk aversion, ambiguity aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution on the willingness to pay to avoid climate change risk. The first part of the paper analyzes a general disaster (jump) risk model with a constant arrival rate of disasters. This provides useful intuition in how preferences influence valuation of long-term risk. The second part of the paper extends this model with a climate model and a temperature dependent arrival rate. Since the model yields closed form solutions up to solving an integral, our model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality of numerical IAMs with several state variables. Introducing Epstein-Zin preferences with an elasticity of substitution higher than one and ambiguity aversion leads to much larger estimates of the social cost of carbon than obtained under power utility. The dominant parameters are the risk aversion coefficient and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. 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function loadDoc(url,cfunc) { var xhttp = new XMLHttpRequest(); xhttp.onreadystatechange = function() { if (xhttp.readyState == 4 && xhttp.status == 200) { cfunc(xhttp); } }; xhttp.open("GET", url, true); xhttp.send(); } function myFunction(xhttp) { document.getElementById("response").innerHTML = xhttp.responseText; } </script><span id="response"></span> </div> </div> <div id="content-block"> <div id="title"> <h1>Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences</h1></div> <div> <ul class="nav nav-pills" id="myTab" role="tablist"> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link active" id="author-abstract-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#author-abstract" role="tab" aria-controls="author-abstract" aria-selected="true">Author & abstract</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link download-tab" id="download-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#download" role="tab" aria-controls="download" aria-selected="false">Download &amp; other version</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="refs-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#refs" role="tab" aria-controls="refs" aria-selected="false">51 References</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="cites-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#cites" role="tab" aria-controls="cites" aria-selected="false">6 Citations</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="mrel-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#mrel" role="tab" aria-controls="mrel" aria-selected="false">Most related</a> </li> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="more-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#more" role="tab" aria-controls="more" aria-selected="false">Related works & more</a> </li> <!-- Placeholder usernotes pill--> <li class="nav-item"> <a class="nav-link" id="correct-tab" data-toggle="tab" href="#correct" role="tab" aria-controls="correct" aria-selected="false">Corrections</a> </li> </ul> <div class="tab-content" id="myTabContent"> <div class="tab-pane fade show active" id="author-abstract" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="author-abstract-tab"> <h2>Author</h2> <div id="author-body"> <div id="authortable"> <div id="listed-authors">Listed: <ul id="authorlist"><li class="authorname">Stan Olijslagers<p class="authorcontact"> (University of Amsterdam)</p></li> <li class="authorname">Sweder van Wijnbergen<p class="authorcontact"> (University of Amsterdam)</p></li> </ul></div><div id="registered-authors"> <a href="https://authors.repec.org/">Registered:</a> <ul id="authorregistered"><li><a href="/f/pol298.html">Stan Olijslagers </A></li> <li><a href="/f/pva412.html">Sweder van Wijnbergen </A></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <h2 style="clear:left">Abstract</h2><div id="abstract-body">We focus on the effect of preference specifications on the current day valuation of future outcomes. Specifically, we analyze the effect of risk aversion, ambiguity aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution on the willingness to pay to avoid climate change risk. The first part of the paper analyzes a general disaster (jump) risk model with a constant arrival rate of disasters. This provides useful intuition in how preferences influence valuation of long-term risk. The second part of the paper extends this model with a climate model and a temperature dependent arrival rate. Since the model yields closed form solutions up to solving an integral, our model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality of numerical IAMs with several state variables. Introducing Epstein-Zin preferences with an elasticity of substitution higher than one and ambiguity aversion leads to much larger estimates of the social cost of carbon than obtained under power utility. The dominant parameters are the risk aversion coefficient and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Ambiguity aversion is of second order importance.</div> <h2>Suggested Citation</h2> <div id="biblio-body"> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Stan Olijslagers & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2019. "<B><A HREF="/p/tin/wpaper/20190030.html">Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/tin/wpaper.html">Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers</A> 19-030/VI, Tinbergen Institute. </li> Handle: <i style="word-break:break-all">RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190030</i> <form method="post" action="/cgi-bin/refs.cgi" enctype="multipart/form-data" target="refs" class="form-inline" role="form" style="margin-bottom: 10px;"> <input type="hidden" name="handle" value="RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190030"> <div class="pull-left" style="padding-right: 2px;"> <input type="submit" class="btn btn-default fa" name="ref" value="Export reference &#xf08e;"> as </div> <div class="col-xs-8" style="padding-left: 0;"> <select name="output" size="1"> <option value="0">HTML</option> <option value="0.5">HTML with abstract</option> <option value="1">plain text</option> <option value="1.5">plain text with abstract</option> <option value="2">BibTeX</option> <option value="3">RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)</option> <option value="4">ReDIF</option> <option value="6">JSON</option> </select> </div> </form></div> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="download" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="download-tab"> <h2>Download full text from publisher</h2><p></p> <FORM METHOD=GET ACTION="/cgi-bin/get_doc.pl" target="_blank"> <INPUT TYPE=HIDDEN NAME="urn" VALUE="RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190030"><INPUT TYPE="radio" NAME="url" VALUE="https://papers.tinbergen.nl/19030.pdf" checked><B>File URL:</B> <span style="word-break:break-all">https://papers.tinbergen.nl/19030.pdf</span><BR><B>Download Restriction:</B> no<BR> <font size="+2" color="red">---><INPUT TYPE="SUBMIT" class="btn fa" VALUE="Download the selected file &#xf08e;" style="color:white;background-color:#2d4e8b;"><---</font></FORM><P><h2>Other versions of this item:</h2> <div class="otherversion"><UL><LI class="list-group-item downgate"> van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Olijslagers, Stan, 2019. "<B><A HREF="https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/13708.html">Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences</A></B>," <A HREF="https://ideas.repec.org/s/cpr/ceprdp.html">CEPR Discussion Papers</A> 13708, C.E.P.R. 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"<B><A HREF="/a/anr/refeco/v7y2015p219-252.html">Disaster Risk and Its Implications for Asset Pricing</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/anr/refeco.html">Annual Review of Financial Economics</A>, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 219-252, December. <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Robert J. Barro, 2009. "<B><A HREF="/a/aea/aecrev/v99y2009i1p243-64.html">Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/aea/aecrev.html">American Economic Review</A>, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March. <div class="otherversion"><UL> <LI class="list-group-item downfree"> Robert J. Barro, 2007. "<B><A HREF="/p/nbr/nberwo/13690.html">Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/nbr/nberwo.html">NBER Working Papers</A> 13690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. </UL></div> <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. 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"<B><A HREF="/a/ecm/emetrp/v46y1978i6p1429-45.html">Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/ecm/emetrp.html">Econometrica</A>, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November. <LI class="list-group-item">repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Jensen, Svenn & Traeger, Christian P., 2014. "<B><A HREF="/a/eee/eecrev/v69y2014icp104-125.html">Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: Stochastic integrated assessment and analytic findings</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/eee/eecrev.html">European Economic Review</A>, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-125. <LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Branger, Nicole & Larsen, Linda Sandris, 2013. 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"<B><A HREF="/a/oup/rfinst/v5y1992i3p411-36.html">Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility</A></B>," <A HREF="/s/oup/rfinst.html">The Review of Financial Studies</A>, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436. </ol> <A TARGET="_blank" HREF="http://citec.repec.org/cgi-bin/get_data.pl?h=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190030&o=all"><B>Full references</B> <i class="fa fa-external-link"></i></A> (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)<P> </div> <div class="tab-pane fade" id="cites" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="cites-tab"> <H2>Citations</H2> Citations are extracted by the <A HREF="http://citec.repec.org/">CitEc Project</A>, subscribe to its <A HREF="http://citec.repec.org/cgi-bin/rss.pl?h=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190030">RSS feed</A> for this item. <form method="post" action="/cgi-bin/refs.cgi" enctype="multipart/form-data" target="refs" class="form-inline" role="form" style="margin-bottom: 10px;"> <input type="hidden" name="handle" value="repec:tin:wpaper:20210045#repec:zbw:vfsc21:242592#repec:tin:wpaper:20230032#repec:hal:pseptp:halshs-02973075#repec:eee:ecolec:v:188:y:2021:i:c:s0921800921001737#repec:zbw:bubdps:012022#repec:zbw:esrepo:253548#repec:fae:wpaper:2019.05#repec:red:issued:18-396#repec:eee:dyncon:v:146:y:2023:i:c:s016518892200272x#repec:eee:finsta:v:54:y:2021:i:c:s1572308921000279#repec:hal:journl:halshs-02973075#repec:ces:ceswps:_9092#repec:cpr:ceprdp:18210"> <div class="pull-left" style="padding-right: 2px;"> <input type="submit" class="btn btn-default fa" name="ref" value="Export citations &#xf08e;"> as </div> <div class="col-xs-8" style="padding-left: 0;"> <select name="output" size="1"> <option value="0">HTML</option> <option value="0.5">HTML with abstract</option> <option value="1">plain text</option> <option value="1.5">plain text with abstract</option> <option value="2">BibTeX</option> <option value="3">RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)</option> <option value="4">ReDIF</option> <option value="6">JSON</option> </select> </div> </form><P> <BR><B>Cited by:</B><ol class="list-group"><LI class="list-group-item downgate"> Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. 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