Document Zbl 1398.91028

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Anal.</a> <a href="/?q=in%3A289100" title="Articles in this Issue">8, No. 2, 88-102 (2011)</a>. </div> <div class="abstract">Summary: Concerns about terrorists smuggling nuclear bombs into the United States in container freight have led to demands for 100% inspection at either U.S. or foreign ports. However, under some circumstances, it may be possible to deter nuclear smuggling attempts with less than 100% inspection. Based on publicly available data, we quantify a game-theoretic model of terrorist decision making to understand the role of nuclear detection technologies in deterring nuclear terrorism. The results suggest that unless the defender imposes high retaliation costs on the attacker, 100% inspection is likely to be needed, and deterrence with partial inspection may not be achievable in practice even though it is possible in theory. On the other hand, when the defender can credibly threaten the attacker with costly retaliation, partial inspection may be sufficient to deter nuclear smuggling attempts. Sensitivity analysis of these results indicates that these observations are robust to assumptions about specific parameters in the model. Thus, for policy debates about how to prevent nuclear terrorism, consideration of the diplomatic stance on retaliation is as important as, or maybe even more important than, debate about the optimal percentage of containers to inspect.</div> <div class="clear"></div> <br> <div class="citations"><div class="clear"><a href="/?q=ci%3A6964208">Cited in <strong>1</strong> Review</a></div><div class="clear"><a href="/?q=rf%3A6964208">Cited in <strong>11</strong> Documents</a></div></div> <div class="classification"> <h3>MSC:</h3> <table><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A91A10" title="MSC2020">91A10</a> </td> <td class="space"> Noncooperative games </td> </tr><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A91A05" title="MSC2020">91A05</a> </td> <td class="space"> 2-person games </td> </tr><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A91F10" title="MSC2020">91F10</a> </td> <td class="space"> History, political science </td> </tr></table> </div><div class="keywords"> <h3>Keywords:</h3><a href="/?q=ut%3Aapplications">applications</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Aterrorism">terrorism</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Agame+theory">game theory</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Adecision+analysis">decision analysis</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Amilitary">military</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Apublic+policy">public policy</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Arisk+analysis">risk analysis</a></div>  <div class="modal fade" id="metadataModal" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="myModalLabel"> <div class="modal-dialog" role="document"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"><span aria-hidden="true">×</span></button> <h4 class="modal-title" id="myModalLabel">Cite</h4> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="form-group"> <label for="select-output" class="control-label">Format</label> <select id="select-output" class="form-control" aria-label="Select Metadata format"></select> </div> <div class="form-group"> <label for="metadataText" class="control-label">Result</label> <textarea class="form-control" id="metadataText" rows="10" style="min-width: 100%;max-width: 100%"></textarea> </div> <div id="metadata-alert" class="alert alert-danger" role="alert" style="display: none;">  </div> </div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button type="button" class="btn btn-primary" onclick="copyMetadata()">Copy to clipboard</button> <button type="button" class="btn btn-default" data-dismiss="modal">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="functions clearfix"> <div class="function">  <a type="button" class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#metadataModal" data-itemtype="Zbl" data-itemname="Zbl 1398.91028" data-ciurl="/ci/06964208" data-biburl="/bibtex/06964208.bib" data-amsurl="/amsrefs/06964208.bib" data-xmlurl="/xml/06964208.xml" > Cite </a> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-container="body" type="button" href="/pdf/06964208.pdf" title="Zbl 1398.91028 as PDF">Review PDF</a> </div> <div class="fulltexts"> <span class="fulltext">Full Text:</span> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs" type="button" href="https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1110.0199" aria-label="DOI for “Deterring the smuggling of nuclear weapons in container freight through detection and retaliation”" title="10.1287/deca.1110.0199">DOI</a> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs" type="button" href="https://semanticscholar.org/paper/36337d73b4e982fd8cf6eca59d7341cfcd0d4975" title="Full Text Link">Link</a> </div> <div class="sfx" style="float: right;"> </div> </div> <div class="references"> <h3>References:</h3> <table><tr> <td>[1]</td> <td class="space">ABT Associates The economic impact of nuclear terrorist attacks on freight transport systems in an age of seaport vulnerability. 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