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[轮胎周评]:轮胎开工弱势运行 市场需求提升缓慢(20220701-0707)-我的钢铁网
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拖累,预计下周期国内顺丁市场价格或弱势整理,关注出厂供价消息及各装置运行情况指引。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">炭黑:下周期成本端提振依然明显,预计炭黑市场价格窄幅上移。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">助剂:隆众预计,下周期橡胶助剂市场弱势难改。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">丁基橡胶:供应面存在支撑,预计丁基市场存在窄幅上涨预期。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>二 后市行情预测</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">预计下周期轮胎样本企业开工率小幅波动为主。一方面,月初安排检修的样本企业陆续复工,将对整体开工率形成支撑。另一方面,因近期出货偏慢,月中其他样本企业也有降负或检修的计划,进而对开工率提升形成限制。预计下周期轮胎样本企业开工率小幅波动为主,整体仍将表现为偏弱运行状态。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">市场方面,近期国内南北方地区均出现多雨天气,对替换市场出货速度有一定限制,叠加运输行业淡季,全钢轮胎市场走货难有明显提升,低价竞争激烈。半钢胎替换市场运行基本平稳,配套市场在乘用车产销逐步提升的支撑下压力略有缓解,另外部分工厂陆续排产雪地胎订单,对整体开工形成一定支撑。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">政策方面,国际原油价格大幅下跌,轮胎主要原材料价格进一步走弱,原料成本压力趋于弱化。月初个别大厂继续推出2%-3%的促销政策,多数工厂价格政策稳定。在需求增涨乏力,原材料价格走弱等因素影响下,预计本月中下旬或将有其他工厂继续尝试灵活促销带动销量。 </span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>三 厂家动态</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong style="text-align: center;">图1 国内轮胎开工率对比图</strong><strong style="text-align: center;"></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/24/1839291.png" title="image.png" alt="image.png"/></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">本周中国半钢胎样本企业开工率为66.41%,环比-0.26%,同比+31.09%。周内多数样本企业开工平稳,个别企业因新订单有限,月内排产计划下调,另有企业存短期检修计划,以缓解库存压力,拖拽样本开工下滑。<br/>本周中国全钢胎样本企业开工率为59.14%,环比-3.31%,同比+14.74%。淄博地区某样本企业设备维护,停产检修;东营地区个别企业因月初代理商补货意愿不强,企业出货进一步减弱,存停产或降负安排,拖拽样本开工明显下滑。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>四 原料成本分析</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong style="text-align: center;">图2 全钢胎原材料成本指数走势图</strong><strong style="text-align: center;"></strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/24/1839292.png" title="image.png" alt="image.png"/></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">本周隆众资讯全钢胎原材料成本指数为12474.47,环比上周-0.25%,同比+6.28%。周内天然橡胶、合成橡胶、助剂等价格下调,拖拽全钢胎原材料成本指数下行。</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>表1 国内部分轮胎品牌市场价格对比表</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>单位:元/条</strong></span></p><table width="100%" width="100"><tbody><tr style=";height:23px" class="firstRow"><td width="36" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>区域</strong></span></p></td><td width="116" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>品牌</strong></span></p></td><td width="110" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>型号</strong></span></p></td><td width="63" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>花纹</strong></span></p></td><td width="50" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>有内/真空</strong></span></p></td><td width="56" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>三包/不三包</strong></span></p></td><td width="54" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>代理等级</strong></span></p></td><td width="46" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>报价</strong></span></p></td><td width="36" style="border-top: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-left: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>涨跌</strong></span></p></td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="36" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">山东</span></p></td><td width="116" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">普利司通</span></p></td><td width="110" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">12R22.5-18PR</span></p></td><td width="63" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">R150</span></p></td><td width="50" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">真空</span></p></td><td width="56" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">三包</span></p></td><td width="54" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">一级批发价</span></p></td><td width="46" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">1460</span></p></td><td width="36" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">0</span></p></td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="36" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">山东</span></p></td><td width="116" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">好运</span></p></td><td width="110" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">12R22.5-18PR</span></p></td><td width="63" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">CM958</span></p></td><td width="50" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">真空</span></p></td><td width="56" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">三包</span></p></td><td width="54" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">一级批发价</span></p></td><td width="46" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">1240</span></p></td><td width="36" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">0</span></p></td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="36" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">山东</span></p></td><td width="116" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">恒丰<br/></span></p></td><td width="110" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">12R22.5-18PR</span></p></td><td width="63" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">660</span></p></td><td width="50" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">真空</span></p></td><td width="56" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">不三包</span></p></td><td width="54" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">一级批发价</span></p></td><td width="46" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">810</span></p></td><td width="36" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">0</span></p></td></tr><tr style=";height:23px"><td width="36" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-image: initial; border-top: none; background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">山东</span></p></td><td width="116" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">玲珑</span></p></td><td width="110" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">12R22.5-16PR</span></p></td><td width="63" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">600</span></p></td><td width="50" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">真空</span></p></td><td width="56" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">三包</span></p></td><td width="54" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">一级批发价</span></p></td><td width="46" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">790</span></p></td><td width="36" style="border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); background: white; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;" align="center" valign="middle"><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">0</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>来源:隆众资讯</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">全钢胎方面,周内市场交投零星,本周恰逢月初第一周,企业销售政策推出较谨慎,部分合资品牌价格有所上调,国内一线品牌价格基本持稳,山东品牌多数延续上月政策,亦有个别品牌存在2%左右促销政策指引,政策导向偏弱,本周市场走货平淡,一级代理商库存较充足的情况下,暂无进货意愿,消化现有库存为主,二级及以下商家保持刚需采购。市场整体出货价稳中偏弱,不排除后边代理商存在甩货现象。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">半钢胎方面,周内市场交投略显缓慢,上周是6月底叠加年中,企业存在一定任务压货情况,多数一级代理商都有进货。实际来看,本周多数品牌价格政策延续上月,个别品牌存有一定幅度促销,但代理商库存相对充足的情况下,连续进货能力不足,市场渠道价格暂稳,交投持续平淡为主。</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 14px;">1、指标解释:卡客车轮胎原材料成本指数,是度量卡客车轮胎原材料成本水平随着时间变动的相对数,综合反映卡客车轮胎原材料成本的变动情况。2、统计范围:隆众资讯卡客车轮胎原材料成本指数目前选取天然橡胶、合成橡胶、炭黑、助剂、钢帘线等主要原料;轮胎规格选取有内胎10.00R20、11.00R20规格和无内胎11R22.5、12R22.5。3、调查方法:原料价格选取全国主流市场均价,原料配方占比主要选取国内规模企业平均比例。4、指数计算方法:第一步,对所选企业的10.00R20、11.00R20和11R22.5、12R22.5四个规格的主要原料占比进行分析,并赋予相应的权重;第二步,对不同地区的原料价格分配权重,计算加权平均价格;第三步、根据已经计算出的价格和权重进行计算得出加权平均价格。备注:若对本报告有疑议或不满,请致信pengt@oilchem.net 。邮箱,我们将及时反馈处理。<br/></span></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑:朱志炜 0533-7026282 </br> 资讯监督:王开富 0533-7026275 </br> 资讯投诉:李倩 0533-7026993 </br> 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