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澳储行7月会议纪要：通胀和薪资将缓慢增长-我的钢铁网
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src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2021/07/20/1159451.png" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-color: rgb(202, 202, 202); border-width: 1px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 100; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: center; text-indent: 32px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-style: solid; height: 340px; width: 550px;" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong>来源：澳储行</strong></p> <p><strong>国际经济</strong></p> <p>澳储行指出全球经济复苏进展顺利，风险预期变得更加均衡。货币政策保持高度宽松。许多发达经济体和一些大型新兴市场经济体的疫苗接种工作进展顺利。随着疫苗接种的增加和住院率保持在低水平，许多国家的人口流动已恢复。</p> <p>外出就餐和国内航空旅行等接触密集型活动增加。由于发达经济体的商品消费持续强劲，全球商品贸易和全球制造业保持强劲。新出口订单维持高水平，未来几个月的就业增长将支持全球生产和商品贸易，但全球运输成本仍非常高。</p> <p>但全球经济复苏仍然不平衡。病毒的持续爆发，包括更具传播性的变异，阻碍了许多经济体的复苏。过去几个月，亚洲病例的显着回升或导致全球供应链持续复杂化。</p> <p>与全球供应链压力和大宗商品价格上涨相一致，许多国家的上游生产者价格持续上涨。发达经济体的总体消费价格通胀有所上升，许多发达经济体的中期通胀预期上升，利率与央行的目标一致或略低。</p> <p>主要发达经济体的劳动力市场继续复苏，劳动力需求的领先指标表现强劲。大多数发达经济体的劳动力参与率也</p> <p>仍低于大流行之前。健康问题、持续的学校关闭和可观的家庭收入支持促成了这一点。在劳动力供应复苏滞后于劳动力需求的国家，出现了部分工资压力。劳动力市场状况迅速恢复紧张的前景对美国来说最为突出，在美国，大量财政刺激措施继续支持需求。</p> <p>在<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石价格</a>高企和煤炭价格大幅反弹的带动下，澳大利亚的贸易条件预计将在6月季度接近创纪录水平。近几周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>动力煤</a>价格飙升至10年来的最高水平。</p> <p><strong>金融市场</strong></p> <p>FOMC会议后，美元普遍升值，略高于年初对其他主要货币的水平。澳元兑美元相应贬值至当年最低水平；以贸易加权计算，澳元也下跌至略低于年初的水平。预计近期商品价格的上涨不会持续下去。</p> <p>尽管发达经济体的政策利率有望上升，部分新兴市场经济体的央行已提高政策利率以应对国内通胀压力上升，但前几个月新兴市场经济体的金融状况相对稳定。</p> <p><strong>货币政策</strong></p> <p>澳储行观察到澳大利亚的经济复苏强于预期，并且预计这种情况将持续下去。国内金融状况仍然非常有利，汇率略有贬值。家庭和企业资产负债表总体状况良好。最近病毒爆发和封锁的影响造成了额外的不确定性，但迄今为止的经验是，一旦疫情得到控制并放宽限制，经济就会迅速反弹。</p> <p>劳动力市场的复苏继续快于预期，与大流行之前相比，更多的澳大利亚人有工作。失业率进一步下降。职位空缺很高，越来越多的公司报告劳动力短缺。</p> <p>澳储行观察到，经济名义方面的结果并没有那么积极。尽管就业和劳动力短缺报告强劲复苏，但通胀和工资结果仍然低迷。虽然通胀和工资增长有望回升，但可能只是渐进和温和的。由于部分经济形势逆转，预计年终CPI通胀将在6月季度暂时高于目标。新冠肺炎-相关价格在前一年有所下降，但随后会下降。</p> <p>鉴于房价上涨和低利率的环境，成员们继续强调监测住房借贷趋势和确保维持贷款标准的重要性。</p> <p>澳储行承认，鉴于经济结果仍远低于央行的通胀和就业目标，因此可以提出将债券购买速度保持在每周50亿美元。澳储行决定将每周购买额从50亿美元调整为40亿美元，并同意在2021年11月的利率决议审查采购率。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘佳惠 021-26093916 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-5439-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> 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