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> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-sitesupport" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="https://donate.wikimedia.org/?wmf_source=donate&wmf_medium=sidebar&wmf_campaign=zh.wikipedia.org&uselang=zh">资助维基百科</a></li><li id="pt-createaccount" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:%E5%88%9B%E5%BB%BA%E8%B4%A6%E6%88%B7&returnto=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC" title="我们推荐您创建账号并登录，但这不是强制性的"> 创建账号</a></li><li id="pt-login" class="user-links-collapsible-item mw-list-item"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Special:%E7%94%A8%E6%88%B7%E7%99%BB%E5%BD%95&returnto=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC" title="建议你登录，尽管并非必须。[o]" accesskey="o"> 登录</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="p-user-menu-anon-editor" class="vector-menu mw-portlet mw-portlet-user-menu-anon-editor" > <div class="vector-menu-heading"> 未登录编辑者的页面 <a href="/wiki/Help:%E6%96%B0%E6%89%8B%E5%85%A5%E9%97%A8" aria-label="了解有关编辑的更多信息">了解详情</a> </div> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li id="pt-anoncontribs" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:%E6%88%91%E7%9A%84%E8%B4%A1%E7%8C%AE" title="来自此IP地址的编辑列表[y]" accesskey="y">贡献</a></li><li id="pt-anontalk" class="mw-list-item"><a href="/wiki/Special:%E6%88%91%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%A8%E8%AE%BA%E9%A1%B5" title="对于来自此IP地址编辑的讨论[n]" accesskey="n">讨论</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </header> </div> <div class="mw-page-container"> <div class="mw-page-container-inner"> <div class="vector-sitenotice-container"> <div id="siteNotice"></div> </div> <div class="vector-column-start"> <div class="vector-main-menu-container"> <div id="mw-navigation"> <nav id="mw-panel" class="vector-main-menu-landmark" aria-label="站点"> <div id="vector-main-menu-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="vector-sticky-pinned-container"> <nav id="mw-panel-toc" aria-label="目录" data-event-name="ui.sidebar-toc" class="mw-table-of-contents-container vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-toc-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> <div id="vector-toc" class="vector-toc vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-toc-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-pinned" data-feature-name="toc-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-toc" > <h2 class="vector-pinnable-header-label">目录</h2> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.pin">移至侧栏</button> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-unpin-button" data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-toc.unpin">隐藏</button> </div> <ul class="vector-toc-contents" id="mw-panel-toc-list"> <li id="toc-mw-content-text" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a href="#" class="vector-toc-link"> <div class="vector-toc-text">序言</div> </a> </li> <li id="toc-爭議" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#爭議"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 1 爭議 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-爭議-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-預測方法" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#預測方法"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2 預測方法 </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-預測方法-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> 开关預測方法子章节 </button> <ul id="toc-預測方法-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-電磁波異常" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#電磁波異常"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.1 電磁波異常 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-電磁波異常-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Demeter微型衛星" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Demeter微型衛星"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.1.1 Demeter微型衛星 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Demeter微型衛星-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-VAN方法" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#VAN方法"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.1.2 VAN方法 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-VAN方法-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-水氡異常" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#水氡異常"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.2 水氡異常 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-水氡異常-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-地震活動型態的改變" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#地震活動型態的改變"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.3 地震活動型態的改變 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-地震活動型態的改變-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-前震" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#前震"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.3.1 前震 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-前震-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-動物行為" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#動物行為"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 2.4 動物行為 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-動物行為-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-案例" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#案例"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 3 案例 </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-案例-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> 开关案例子章节 </button> <ul id="toc-案例-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-中國" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#中國"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 3.1 中國 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-中國-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-美國" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#美國"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 3.2 美國 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-美國-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-義大利" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#義大利"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 3.3 義大利 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-義大利-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-地震預警" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#地震預警"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 4 地震預警 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-地震預警-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-參考文獻" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#參考文獻"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 5 參考文獻 </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-參考文獻-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> 开关參考文獻子章节 </button> <ul id="toc-參考文獻-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-来源" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#来源"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 5.1 来源 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-来源-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-外部連結" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#外部連結"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 6 外部連結 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-外部連結-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-参见" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#参见"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> 7 参见 </div> </a> <ul id="toc-参见-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="目录" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" title="目录" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox " aria-label="开关目录" > <label id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" > 开关目录 </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading">地震預測</h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="前往另一种语言写成的文章。19种语言可用" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-19" aria-hidden="true" > 19种语言 </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%A4_%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%84" title="التنبؤ بالزلازل – 阿拉伯语" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="التنبؤ بالزلازل" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="阿拉伯语" class="interlanguage-link-target">العربية</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-az mw-list-item"><a href="https://az.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z%C9%99lz%C9%99l%C9%99nin_proqnozla%C5%9Fd%C4%B1r%C4%B1lmas%C4%B1" title="Zəlzələnin proqnozlaşdırılması – 阿塞拜疆语" lang="az" hreflang="az" data-title="Zəlzələnin proqnozlaşdırılması" data-language-autonym="Azərbaycanca" data-language-local-name="阿塞拜疆语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Azərbaycanca</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erdbebenvorhersage" title="Erdbebenvorhersage – 德语" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Erdbebenvorhersage" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="德语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Deutsch</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-el mw-list-item"><a href="https://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%A0%CF%81%CF%8C%CE%B3%CE%BD%CF%89%CF%83%CE%B7_%CF%83%CE%B5%CE%B9%CF%83%CE%BC%CF%8E%CE%BD" title="Πρόγνωση σεισμών – 希腊语" lang="el" hreflang="el" data-title="Πρόγνωση σεισμών" data-language-autonym="Ελληνικά" data-language-local-name="希腊语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Ελληνικά</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-en mw-list-item"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction" title="Earthquake prediction – 英语" lang="en" hreflang="en" data-title="Earthquake prediction" data-language-autonym="English" data-language-local-name="英语" class="interlanguage-link-target">English</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-eo mw-list-item"><a href="https://eo.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tertrema_prognozo" title="Tertrema prognozo – 世界语" lang="eo" hreflang="eo" data-title="Tertrema prognozo" data-language-autonym="Esperanto" data-language-local-name="世界语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Esperanto</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicci%C3%B3n_de_terremotos" title="Predicción de terremotos – 西班牙语" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Predicción de terremotos" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="西班牙语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Español</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4%E2%80%8C%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C_%D8%B2%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86%E2%80%8C%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%B2%D9%87" title="پیش‌بینی زمین‌لرزه – 波斯语" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="پیش‌بینی زمین‌لرزه" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="波斯语" class="interlanguage-link-target">فارسی</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%A9diction_sismique" title="Prédiction sismique – 法语" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Prédiction sismique" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="法语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Français</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-hy mw-list-item"><a href="https://hy.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D4%B5%D6%80%D5%AF%D6%80%D5%A1%D5%B7%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%AA%D5%AB_%D5%AF%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%AD%D5%A1%D5%BF%D5%A5%D5%BD%D5%B8%D6%82%D5%B4" title="Երկրաշարժի կանխատեսում – 亚美尼亚语" lang="hy" hreflang="hy" data-title="Երկրաշարժի կանխատեսում" data-language-autonym="Հայերեն" data-language-local-name="亚美尼亚语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Հայերեն</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precursore_sismico" title="Precursore sismico – 意大利语" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Precursore sismico" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="意大利语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Italiano</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ja mw-list-item"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E4%BA%88%E7%9F%A5" title="地震予知 – 日语" lang="ja" hreflang="ja" data-title="地震予知" data-language-autonym="日本語" data-language-local-name="日语" class="interlanguage-link-target">日本語</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%A7%80%EC%A7%84_%EC%98%88%EC%B8%A1" title="지진 예측 – 韩语" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="지진 예측" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="韩语" class="interlanguage-link-target">한국어</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B7_%D0%B7%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%80%D1%8F%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9" title="Прогноз землетрясений – 俄语" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="Прогноз землетрясений" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="俄语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Русский</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sq mw-list-item"><a href="https://sq.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parashikimi_i_t%C3%ABrmetit" title="Parashikimi i tërmetit – 阿尔巴尼亚语" lang="sq" hreflang="sq" data-title="Parashikimi i tërmetit" data-language-autonym="Shqip" data-language-local-name="阿尔巴尼亚语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Shqip</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-tr mw-list-item"><a href="https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deprem_tahmini" title="Deprem tahmini – 土耳其语" lang="tr" hreflang="tr" data-title="Deprem tahmini" data-language-autonym="Türkçe" data-language-local-name="土耳其语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Türkçe</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%B7%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%80%D1%83%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B2" title="Передбачення землетрусів – 乌克兰语" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Передбачення землетрусів" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="乌克兰语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Українська</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uz mw-list-item"><a href="https://uz.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zilzila_bashorati" title="Zilzila bashorati – 乌兹别克语" lang="uz" hreflang="uz" data-title="Zilzila bashorati" data-language-autonym="Oʻzbekcha / ўзбекча" data-language-local-name="乌兹别克语" class="interlanguage-link-target">Oʻzbekcha / ўзбекча</a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-vi mw-list-item"><a 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class="mw-parser-output"><img alt="本页使用了标题或全文手工转换" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Zh_conversion_icon_m.svg/35px-Zh_conversion_icon_m.svg.png" decoding="async" width="35" height="22" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Zh_conversion_icon_m.svg/53px-Zh_conversion_icon_m.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Zh_conversion_icon_m.svg/70px-Zh_conversion_icon_m.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="32" data-file-height="20" /></div></div> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">维基百科，自由的百科全书</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="zh" dir="ltr"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r85100532">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-size:small}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:2em;margin-bottom:0.8em;margin-top:0.8em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote-notice-img::after{content:"\202f \202f \202f \202f "}.mw-parser-output .hatnote-notice-img-small::after{content:"\202f \202f "}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}body.skin-minerva .mw-parser-output .hatnote-notice-img,body.skin-minerva .mw-parser-output .hatnote-notice-img-small{display:none}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable"><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E6%B6%88%E6%AD%A7%E4%B9%89" title="Wikipedia:消歧义"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/Disambig_gray.svg/25px-Disambig_gray.svg.png" decoding="async" width="25" height="19" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/Disambig_gray.svg/38px-Disambig_gray.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/Disambig_gray.svg/50px-Disambig_gray.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="220" data-file-height="168" /></a>此條目介紹的是地震发生前的预测。关于地震发生後發布警報的系统，请见「<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A2%84%E8%AD%A6%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F" class="mw-redirect" title="地震预警系统">地震预警系统</a>」。</div> <div id="noteTA-5553437a" class="noteTA"><div class="noteTA-group"><div data-noteta-group-source="module" data-noteta-group="Earthquake"></div><div data-noteta-group-source="module" data-noteta-group="地名"></div></div></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r84596247">.mw-parser-output .multiple-issues-text{width:95%;margin:0.2em 0}.mw-parser-output .multiple-issues-text>.mw-collapsible-content{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .compact-ambox .ambox{border:none;border-collapse:collapse;background-color:transparent;margin:0 0 0 1.6em!important;padding:0!important;width:auto;display:block}body.mediawiki .mw-parser-output .compact-ambox .ambox.mbox-small-left{font-size:100%;width:auto;margin:0}.mw-parser-output .compact-ambox .ambox .mbox-text{padding:0!important;margin:0!important}.mw-parser-output .compact-ambox 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decoding="async" width="40" height="40" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Ambox_important.svg/60px-Ambox_important.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Ambox_important.svg/80px-Ambox_important.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="40" data-file-height="40" /></div></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span"><div class="multiple-issues-text mw-collapsible">本條目存在以下問題，請協助<a class="external text" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit">改善本條目</a>或在<a href="/wiki/Talk:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC" title="Talk:地震預測">討論頁</a>針對議題發表看法。 <div class="mw-collapsible-content"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r83732972" /><table class="box-Disputed plainlinks metadata ambox ambox-content" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><div style="width:52px"><img 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rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r83732972" /><table class="box-Expert_needed plainlinks metadata ambox ambox-content" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><div style="width:52px"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Ambox_important.svg/40px-Ambox_important.svg.png" decoding="async" width="40" height="40" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Ambox_important.svg/60px-Ambox_important.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Ambox_important.svg/80px-Ambox_important.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="40" data-file-height="40" /></div></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span">此條目需要精通或熟悉相关主题的编者参与及协助编辑。 (2018年2月20日) 請<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E5%B0%88%E5%AE%B6%E9%82%80%E8%AB%8B%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E5%B0%8F%E7%B5%84" title="Wikipedia:專家邀請工作小組">邀請</a>適合的人士<a class="external text" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit">改善本条目</a>。更多的細節與詳情請參见<a href="/wiki/Talk:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC" title="Talk:地震預測">討論頁</a>。</div></td></tr></tbody></table> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r83732972" /><table class="box-Refimprove plainlinks metadata ambox ambox-content" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><div style="width:52px"><a href="/wiki/File:Tango-nosources.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4e/Tango-nosources.svg/45px-Tango-nosources.svg.png" decoding="async" width="45" height="45" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4e/Tango-nosources.svg/68px-Tango-nosources.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4e/Tango-nosources.svg/90px-Tango-nosources.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="48" data-file-height="48" /></a></div></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span">此條目需要补充更多<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E5%88%97%E6%98%8E%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90" title="Wikipedia:列明来源">来源</a>。 (2018年2月20日) 请协助補充多方面<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E5%8F%AF%E9%9D%A0%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90" title="Wikipedia:可靠来源">可靠来源</a>以<a class="external text" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit">改善这篇条目</a>，<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E5%8F%AF%E4%BE%9B%E6%9F%A5%E8%AF%81" class="mw-redirect" title="Wikipedia:可供查证">无法查证</a>的内容可能會因為<a href="/wiki/Template:Fact" class="mw-redirect" title="Template:Fact">异议提出</a>而被移除。 致使用者：请搜索一下条目的标题（来源搜索：<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.google.com/search?&as_eq=wikipedia&q=%22%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%22">"地震預測"</a> — <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.google.com/search?q=%22%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%22">网页</a>、<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.google.com/search?tbm=nws&q=&as_src=-newswire+-wire+-presswire+-PR+-press+-release+-wikipedia&q=%22%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%22">新闻</a>、<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//books.google.com/books?&as_brr=0&as_pub=-icon&q=%22%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%22">书籍</a>、<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//scholar.google.com/scholar?&q=%22%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%22">学术</a>、<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.google.com/search?tbm=isch&safe=off&q=%22%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%22">图像</a>），以检查网络上是否存在该主题的更多可靠来源（<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E5%8F%AF%E9%9D%A0%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90" title="Wikipedia:可靠来源">判定指引</a>）。</div></td></tr></tbody></table> </div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <figure class="mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Eq-prob.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/Eq-prob.jpg/300px-Eq-prob.jpg" decoding="async" width="300" height="401" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/Eq-prob.jpg/450px-Eq-prob.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9b/Eq-prob.jpg 2x" data-file-width="535" data-file-height="716" /></a><figcaption><a href="/wiki/%E8%88%8A%E9%87%91%E5%B1%B1%E7%81%A3%E5%8D%80" title="舊金山灣區">舊金山灣區</a>震災危害度圖表，描繪了2032年前發生大地震的機率。</figcaption></figure> 地震預測（earthquake prediction）是<a href="/wiki/%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC" title="預測">預測</a>一次<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="地震">地震</a>發生的時間、地點和<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%9C%87%E7%B4%9A" class="mw-redirect" title="地震震級">規模</a>。地震學家目前仍無法預測地震的確切發生時間<a href="#cite_note-ludwin-1">[1]</a>，然而對地下構造瞭解的進步，科學家能透過<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E9%9C%87%E7%81%BD%E5%8D%B1%E5%AE%B3%E5%BA%A6&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="震災危害度（页面不存在）">震災危害度</a>評估，提供特定規模的地震在未來數年到數十年之間，發生在某區域的<a href="/wiki/%E6%A9%9F%E7%8E%87" class="mw-redirect" title="機率">機率</a>，以供建築物和公共建設設定最低防震規範。雖然部份證據表明，對某些區域的地震預報或許有實用價值，然而這些技術的可靠性既未確立，也無法重製，所以<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%AD%B8%E5%AE%B6" class="mw-redirect" title="地震學家">地震學家</a>及<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E8%B3%AA%E5%AD%B8" class="mw-redirect" title="地質學">地質學</a>家一般認為實用的地震預測還是夢想。 <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="爭議">爭議</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=1" title="编辑章节：爭議">编辑</a>]</div> 人們試圖以各種自然現象預測地震，例如<a href="/wiki/%E9%9B%BB%E7%A3%81%E5%A0%B4" class="mw-redirect" title="電磁場">電磁場</a>、天氣狀況、<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%9B%B2" title="地震雲">地震雲</a>、土壤或地下水的<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%A1" title="氡">氡</a>氣或<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%AB" class="mw-redirect" title="氫">氫</a>氣含量、井水水位及<a href="/wiki/%E5%8A%A8%E7%89%A9%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%E5%AD%A6" title="动物行为学">動物行為</a>等。 地震預測迄今仍深具爭議性；一方面是因為資料不足，另一方面則缺乏能證實上述因果聯繫的科學理論。此外，只要做出大量預測，便容易碰巧言中。大部分的預測方法都基於機率模型；由於大地震鮮少發生，其地點與時間又相當集中，目前我們很難鑑定一次「成功」的預測是否只是僥倖而已。 <a href="/wiki/2009%E5%B9%B4%E6%8B%89%E5%A5%8E%E6%8B%89%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="2009年拉奎拉地震">2009年拉奎拉地震</a>發生後，幾位科學家因未能提出足夠警告，依過失殺人罪被判6年徒刑，在歐美科學界引發一片驚慌和撻伐之聲，學者警告這恐造成<a href="/wiki/%E5%AF%92%E8%9F%AC%E6%95%88%E6%87%89_(%E6%B3%95%E5%BE%8B)" class="mw-redirect" title="寒蟬效應 (法律)">寒蟬效應</a>。<a href="#cite_note-sciencenet2012-2">[2]</a> <a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%8E%84%E7%88%BE%E6%96%AF%E7%89%B9%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%B8&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="厄爾斯特大學（页面不存在）">厄爾斯特大學</a>（University of Ulster）地震物理學教授史迪西（Sandy Steacy）認為：「若維持原判，這項判決將對義大利和全歐洲的地震科學造成寒蟬效應。」科學工作者關懷聯盟（UCS）學者郝普恩（Michael Halpern）認為：「這項決定荒謬又危險，美國官員應該非難它，<a href="/wiki/%E7%BE%A9%E5%A4%A7%E5%88%A9%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1" class="mw-redirect" title="義大利總統">義大利總統</a><a href="/wiki/%E5%96%AC%E6%B2%BB%E5%A5%A7%C2%B7%E7%B4%8D%E6%B3%A2%E5%88%A9%E5%A1%94%E8%AB%BE" class="mw-redirect" title="喬治奧·納波利塔諾">乔治奥·纳波利塔诺</a>（Giorgio Napolitano）應該推翻这个决定。」<a href="/wiki/%E8%8B%B1%E5%9B%BD%E5%9C%B0%E8%B4%A8%E8%B0%83%E6%9F%A5%E5%B1%80" title="英国地质调查局">英國地質調查所</a>（BGS）的穆森（Roger Musson）說：「這6名科學家說的是正確的，任何地震學家都會支持他們的說法。他們盡力提供科學的建議卻被判刑，這是錯的。」 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="預測方法">預測方法</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=2" title="编辑章节：預測方法">编辑</a>]</div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="電磁波異常">電磁波異常</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=3" title="编辑章节：電磁波異常">编辑</a>]</div> 實驗證明，岩石在破裂之前，會釋放出電磁波，然而對於如何影響到大的範圍仍有許多疑問；部份研究則認為是岩石內的<a href="/wiki/%E7%9F%B3%E8%8B%B1" title="石英">石英</a>受到壓力時產生的<a href="/wiki/%E5%A3%93%E9%9B%BB%E6%95%88%E6%87%89" title="壓電效應">壓電效應</a>所造成；也有人認為是由於地下水位的改變所引起。 <a href="#cite_note-3">[3]</a> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Demeter微型衛星">Demeter微型衛星</h4>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=4" title="编辑章节：Demeter微型衛星">编辑</a>]</div> Demeter（<a href="/wiki/%E5%B8%8C%E8%87%98%E7%A5%9E%E8%A9%B1" class="mw-redirect" title="希臘神話">希臘神話</a>的女神<a href="/wiki/%E5%BE%97%E5%A2%A8%E5%BF%92%E8%80%B3" title="得墨忒耳">得墨忒耳</a>）為地震區電磁放射偵測（<a href="/wiki/%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87" class="mw-redirect" title="英文">英文</a>："Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions"）的縮寫。Demeter衛星由<a href="/wiki/%E6%B3%95%E5%9C%8B%E5%9C%8B%E5%AE%B6%E5%A4%AA%E7%A9%BA%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83" title="法國國家太空研究中心">法國國家太空研究中心</a>建造，目前已觀察到某類低頻電磁活動與地震活躍帶的關係，並在2004年9月5日<a href="/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC" title="日本">日本</a><a href="/wiki/%E6%9D%B1%E6%B5%B7%E5%9C%B0%E6%96%B9" title="東海地方">東海地方</a>發生<a href="/wiki/%E9%9D%A2%E6%B3%A2%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7" title="面波震级">面波震级</a>7.1地震前一週觀察到明顯的<a href="/wiki/%E9%9B%BB%E9%9B%A2%E5%B1%A4" class="mw-redirect" title="電離層">電離層</a>活動及溫度變化<a href="#cite_note-4">[4]</a>。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="VAN方法">VAN方法</h4>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=5" title="编辑章节：VAN方法">编辑</a>]</div> VAN 是一套由 Varotsos、Alexopoulos 與 Nomicos 三位<a href="/wiki/%E5%B8%8C%E8%87%98" class="mw-redirect" title="希臘">希臘</a>學者在1980年代提出的地震預測法。此法以埋入地下的金屬棍偵測地震電磁信號（<a href="/wiki/%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87" class="mw-redirect" title="英文">英文</a>：seismic electric signals），部份學者聲稱能預測大於五級的地震，震央誤差在100公里以內、震度誤差在0.7個單位內、時間窗口為2小時至11天。這個方法受到 Sir James Lighthill 的批判性考察<a href="#cite_note-5">[5]</a>，此外也在<a href="/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC" title="日本">日本</a>激起一些科學上的興趣<a href="#cite_note-6">[6]</a>。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="水氡異常">水氡異常</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=6" title="编辑章节：水氡異常">编辑</a>]</div> 指地下水中氡气含量的突然大幅度增加或减少。在多次大地震前已观测到这种现象，其原因可能是地应力的变化使岩石释放出一定量的氡气，从而导致地下水中氡气含量的变化。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="地震活動型態的改變">地震活動型態的改變</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=7" title="编辑章节：地震活動型態的改變">编辑</a>]</div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="前震">前震</h4>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=8" title="编辑章节：前震">编辑</a>]</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r85100532" /><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">参见：<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%8F%E5%88%97" title="地震序列">地震序列</a></div> 發生在相近時間或空間上的一連串地震，依照發生次序可分為前震、主震和餘震，難以判別主震的地震序列稱之為群震。不同型態的地震序列是由於地殼非均質所引起許多大地震在來臨前，斷層破裂區域的地震活動會明顯的增加，最著名的案例為1975年的<a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E5%9F%8E%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" class="mw-redirect" title="海城地震">海城地震</a>。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="動物行為">動物行為</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=9" title="编辑章节：動物行為">编辑</a>]</div> 根據民間傳說，一些動物能預知地震來臨，特別是<a href="/wiki/%E8%B2%93" class="mw-redirect" title="貓">貓</a>、<a href="/wiki/%E7%8B%97" class="mw-redirect" title="狗">狗</a>、<a href="/wiki/%E9%9B%9E" class="mw-redirect" title="雞">雞</a>、<a href="/wiki/%E9%A6%AC" class="mw-redirect" title="馬">馬</a>及其他小型動物；大型動物對此則較不敏感。<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E9%9D%9E%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%9B%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6" title="Wikipedia:非原创研究">[原創研究？]</a><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r83946278">.mw-parser-output .template-facttext{background-color:var(--background-color-neutral,#eaecf0);color:inherit;margin:-.3em 0;padding:.3em 0}</style>日本學者也曾對<a href="/wiki/%E9%AF%B0%E9%AD%9A" class="mw-redirect" title="鯰魚">鯰魚</a>的行為進行長期研究。<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E5%88%97%E6%98%8E%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90" title="Wikipedia:列明来源">[來源請求]</a> 也有人主張動物的異常行為源於低頻<a href="/wiki/%E9%9B%BB%E7%A3%81%E6%B3%A2" class="mw-redirect" title="電磁波">電磁輻射</a>信號。科羅拉多大學的學者證實<a href="/wiki/%E7%9F%B3%E8%8B%B1" title="石英">石英</a>岩斷裂時能藉<a href="/wiki/%E5%A3%93%E9%9B%BB%E6%95%88%E6%87%89" title="壓電效應">壓電效應</a>產生電磁活動。這類活動可於震前在<a href="/wiki/%E6%96%B7%E5%B1%A4" title="斷層">斷層</a>線上發生。根據最近的研究，電磁感應器能在<a href="/wiki/%E7%B5%B1%E8%A8%88%E5%AD%B8" class="mw-redirect" title="統計學">統計學</a>的意義上有效預測地震<a href="#cite_note-7">[7]</a> 中國曾有系統地研究了動物的異常表現，並在1974年12月預測隔年二月發生的<a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E5%9F%8E%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" class="mw-redirect" title="海城地震">海城地震</a>；然而該次預測主要是依靠一系列的強烈前震。關於動物行為的報導通常模稜兩可；目前還無法證明動物能預知地震，即使動物能感知P波，但<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%84%80" title="地震儀">地震儀</a>對此更敏感<a href="#cite_note-8">[8]</a>。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="案例">案例</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=10" title="编辑章节：案例">编辑</a>]</div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="中國">中國</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=11" title="编辑章节：中國">编辑</a>]</div> <a href="/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B" title="中國">中國</a>地震預測主要是基於震前的異常事件，例如地下水位、<a href="/wiki/%E5%8B%95%E7%89%A9" class="mw-redirect" title="動物">動物</a>行為或前震等等。有报道与学者统计自1975年2月4日中國地震學家曾成功預報了<a href="/wiki/%E9%81%BC%E5%AF%A7%E7%9C%81" class="mw-redirect" title="遼寧省">遼寧省</a><a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="海城大地震">海城大地震</a><a href="#cite_note-9">[9]</a>起，中国地震学家根据统计学与临震异常共预测成功并发布了短期、临震预报的地震共有28次<a href="#cite_note-10">[10]</a><a href="#cite_note-11">[11]</a>。包括了1990年9月22日北京小汤山4级地震<a href="#cite_note-12">[12]</a>、1994年2月16日青海共和5.8级地震<a href="#cite_note-13">[13]</a><a href="#cite_note-14">[14]</a>、1995年7月12日云南孟连7.3级地震<a href="#cite_note-15">[15]</a>、1997年4月6日新疆伽师6.3级、6.4级地震<a href="#cite_note-16">[16]</a>、2003年云南大姚7月21日6.2级地震、10月16日6.1级地震<a href="#cite_note-17">[17]</a>、2003年10月25日甘肃民乐6.1级地震<a href="#cite_note-18">[18]</a>等。 但是1976年7月28日<a href="/wiki/%E5%94%90%E5%B1%B1%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="唐山大地震">唐山大地震</a>事前虽有中长期趋势判断，但并无短期、临震预报。造成當次地震242,769到655,237人死亡以及164,851人重伤；2008年5月12日的<a href="/wiki/%E6%B1%B6%E5%B7%9D%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="汶川大地震">汶川大地震</a>，同样也无短震、临震预报，最终造成69,227到300,000人死亡，374,643人受伤，17,923人失踪。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="美國">美國</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=12" title="编辑章节：美國">编辑</a>]</div> 2004年初，<a href="/wiki/%E6%B4%9B%E6%9D%89%E7%A3%AF%E5%8A%A0%E5%88%A9%E7%A6%8F%E5%B0%BC%E4%BA%9E%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%B8" class="mw-redirect" title="洛杉磯加利福尼亞大學">洛杉磯加利福尼亞大學</a>由<a href="/wiki/%E5%BC%97%E6%8B%89%E8%BF%AA%E7%B1%B3%E7%88%BE%C2%B7%E6%B3%A2%E6%B4%9B%E5%85%8B" title="弗拉迪米爾·波洛克">弗拉迪米爾·波洛克</a>帶領的一群科學家預言南加州九月將有一場與2003年San Simeo地震規模相當的地震，機率是百分之五十。 到了2004年4月，加州地震預報評估委員會（CEPEC）向州政府報告「預測並不可靠，而且涉及的地域廣大（12,400平方哩），所以這些結果不能作為加州採取特殊手段的正當理由。」<a href="#cite_note-19">[19]</a>結果在預報的時間窗口內並無明顯地震。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="義大利">義大利</h3>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=13" title="编辑章节：義大利">编辑</a>]</div> <a href="/wiki/2009%E5%B9%B4%E6%8B%89%E5%A5%8E%E6%8B%89%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="2009年拉奎拉地震">2009年拉奎拉地震</a>發生前一個月，一位名叫賈寶洛的實驗室技術人員，根據地面增加的放射性<a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%A1%E6%B0%94" class="mw-redirect" title="氡气">氡氣</a>排放量，研判會有大地震發生。結果他被<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E7%BE%A9%E5%A4%A7%E5%88%A9%E6%B0%91%E9%98%B2%E5%96%AE%E4%BD%8D&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="義大利民防單位（页面不存在）">義大利民防單位</a>指控危言聳聽，還被移送警方偵辦，罪名是製造民眾恐慌。而就在賈寶洛被移送的同時，官方的專家在拉奎拉召開會議，大量接受媒體訪問，保證說不會發生地震。官方的地震測報中心官員後來遭到民眾指控提供不正確的資訊，7名科學家被依過失殺人罪名、求處4年徒刑。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="地震預警">地震預警</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=14" title="编辑章节：地震預警">编辑</a>]</div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r85100532" /><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">更多信息：<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E8%AD%A6%E7%B3%BB%E7%B5%B1" title="地震預警系統">地震預警系統</a></div> 地震的预警监测比地震預測更可靠，其原理是偵測<a href="/wiki/P%E6%B3%A2" title="P波">P波</a>；P波在<a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E6%AE%BC" class="mw-redirect" title="地殼">地殼</a>中的傳遞速度快過具破壞力的<a href="/wiki/S%E6%B3%A2" title="S波">S波</a>及<a href="/wiki/%E8%A1%A8%E9%9D%A2%E6%B3%A2" class="mw-redirect" title="表面波">雷利波</a>，故可先期偵測。此法只能提早數秒（對於較深及較遠的大地震，或可達數十秒）预警。現時有一套稱作 QuakeGuard™ <a href="#cite_note-pre-detection-20">[20]</a> 的系統能用這套技術自動應變，以減少人員及財產損失。 加州大學的 Richard Allen 在發表於《<a href="/wiki/%E8%87%AA%E7%84%B6_(%E6%9C%9F%E5%88%8A)" title="自然 (期刊)">自然</a>》的一篇論文中聲稱：在地震發生的前幾秒，可以從地震儀的紀錄中預判地震大小<a href="#cite_note-21">[21]</a>，它的結果還沒被其它學者認可。若然，則地震的早期預警將能更為有效。 <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="參考文獻">參考文獻</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=15" title="编辑章节：參考文獻">编辑</a>]</div> <div class="reflist columns references-column-count references-column-count-3" style="-moz-column-count: 3; -webkit-column-count: 3; column-count: 3; list-style-type: decimal;"> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-ludwin-1"><a href="#cite_ref-ludwin_1-0">^</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html">Earthquake Prediction</a> （<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//web.archive.org/web/20091007165545/http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html">页面存档备份</a>，存于<a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%A1%A3%E6%A1%88%E9%A6%86" title="互联网档案馆">互联网档案馆</a>）. 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that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant</a> (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, August 2008, 113 (B08130): 8310 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008JGRB..113.8310H">Bibcode:2008JGRB..113.8310H</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1029%2F2007JB005410">doi:10.1029/2007JB005410</a>, （原始内容<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170610163455/http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/kfelzer/HardebeckEtAl.pdf">存档</a> (PDF)于2017-06-10）</cite><span 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href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008PhT....61a..60H">Bibcode:2008PhT....61a..60H</a>, <a href="/wiki/Special:%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E4%B9%A6%E6%BA%90/978-0-691-12807-8" title="Special:网络书源/978-0-691-12807-8">ISBN 978-0-691-12807-8</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1063%2F1.2835157">doi:10.1063/1.2835157</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Richter%27s+Scale%3A+Measure+of+an+Earthquake%2C+Measure+of+a+Man&rft.au=Langer%2C+James+S.&rft.aufirst=Susan+Elizabeth&rft.aulast=Hough&rft.date=2007&rft.genre=article&rft.isbn=978-0-691-12807-8&rft.jtitle=Physics+Today&rft.pages=60-62&rft.volume=61&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2008PhT....61a..60H&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1063%2F1.2835157&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFHough2010" class="citation">Hough, Susan Elizabeth, <a rel="nofollow" class="external 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title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=A+seismological+retrospective+of+the+Brady-Spence+prediction&rft.aufirst=Susan+Elizabeth&rft.aulast=Hough&rft.date=2010-01%2F2010-02&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=1&rft.jtitle=Seismological+Research+Letters&rft.pages=113-117&rft.volume=81&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fpasadena.wr.usgs.gov%2Foffice%2Fhough%2Fsrl_hough_jan_2010.pdf&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1785%2Fgssrl.81.1.113&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFHough2010b" class="citation">Hough, Susan, Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Princeton University Press, 2010b, <a href="/wiki/Special:%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E4%B9%A6%E6%BA%90/978-0-691-13816-9" title="Special:网络书源/978-0-691-13816-9">ISBN 978-0-691-13816-9</a></cite><span 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title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Forecasting+the+epicenter+of+a+future+major+earthquake&rft.aufirst=Qinghua&rft.aulast=Huang&rft.date=2015-01-27&rft.genre=article&rft.issn=0027-8424&rft.issue=4&rft.jtitle=Proceedings+of+the+National+Academy+of+Sciences&rft.pages=944-945&rft.volume=112&rft_id=%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC4313830&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fcontent%2F112%2F4%2F944&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2015PNAS..112..944H&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1423684112&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F25583499&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFImmèMorelli2012" class="citation">Immè, Giuseppina; Morelli, Daniela, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/30707/InTech-Radon_as_earthquake_precursor.pdf">Radon as Earthquake Precursor</a> (PDF), D'Amico (编), Earthquake Research and Analysis, 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href="http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350">Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization</a>, Annals of Geophysics, 2011-05-30, 54 (4): 315–391 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.4401%2Fag-5350">doi:10.4401/ag-5350</a>, （原始内容<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180211095000/http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350">存档</a>于2018-02-11）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Operational+Earthquake+Forecasting%3A+State+of+Knowledge+and+Guidelines+for+Utilization&rft.au=International+Commission+on+Earthquake+Forecasting+for+Civil+Protection&rft.date=2011-05-30&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=4&rft.jtitle=Annals+of+Geophysics&rft.pages=315-391&rft.volume=54&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.annalsofgeophysics.eu%2Findex.php%2Fannals%2Farticle%2Fview%2F5350&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.4401%2Fag-5350&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFJackson1996a" class="citation">Jackson, David D., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/93/9/3772.full.pdf">Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction</a> (PDF), Proc. 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U.S.A., April 1996a, 93 (9): 3772–3775 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996PNAS...93.3772J">Bibcode:1996PNAS...93.3772J</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC39435">PMC 39435</a> <img alt="可免费查阅" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/9px-Lock-green.svg.png" decoding="async" width="9" height="14" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/14px-Lock-green.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/18px-Lock-green.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="512" data-file-height="813" />, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11607663">PMID 11607663</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1073%2Fpnas.93.9.3772">doi:10.1073/pnas.93.9.3772</a>, （原始内容<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20151123074235/http://www.pnas.org/content/93/9/3772.full.pdf">存档</a> (PDF)于2015-11-23）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Hypothesis+testing+and+earthquake+prediction&rft.aufirst=David+D.&rft.aulast=Jackson&rft.date=1996-04&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=9&rft.jtitle=Proc.+Natl.+Acad.+Sci.+U.S.A.&rft.pages=3772-3775&rft.volume=93&rft_id=%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC39435&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fcontent%2F93%2F9%2F3772.full.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1996PNAS...93.3772J&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.93.9.3772&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F11607663&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFJackson1996b" class="citation">Jackson, David D., Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN method, Geophysical Research Letters, 27 May 1996b, 23 (11): 1363–1366, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996GeoRL..23.1363J">Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1363J</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1029%2F96gl01439">doi:10.1029/96gl01439</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Earthquake+prediction+evaluation+standards+applied+to+the+VAN+method&rft.aufirst=David+D.&rft.aulast=Jackson&rft.date=1996-05-27&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=11&rft.jtitle=Geophysical+Research+Letters&rft.pages=1363-1366&rft.volume=23&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1996GeoRL..23.1363J&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1029%2F96gl01439&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFJackson2004" class="citation">Jackson, David D., Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting, Sparks, R. 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(编), <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.agu.org/books/gm/v150/150GM26/150GM26.pdf">The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics</a> (PDF), Geophysical Monograph Series 150: 335–348, 2004, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004GMS...150..335J">Bibcode:2004GMS...150..335J</a>, <a href="/wiki/Special:%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E4%B9%A6%E6%BA%90/0-87590-415-7" title="Special:网络书源/0-87590-415-7">ISBN 0-87590-415-7</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1029%2F150GM26">doi:10.1029/150GM26</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Earthquake+Prediction+and+Forecasting&rft.aufirst=David+D.&rft.aulast=Jackson&rft.btitle=The+State+of+the+Planet%3A+Frontiers+and+Challenges+in+Geophysics&rft.date=2004&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.isbn=0-87590-415-7&rft.pages=335-348&rft.series=Geophysical+Monograph+Series&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.agu.org%2Fbooks%2Fgm%2Fv150%2F150GM26%2F150GM26.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2004GMS...150..335J&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1029%2F150GM26&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook" class="Z3988"> [<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E5%A4%B1%E6%95%88%E9%93%BE%E6%8E%A5" title="Wikipedia:失效链接">失效連結</a>].</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFJacksonKagan1998" class="citation">Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161220080719/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/VAN_98_EOS.pdf">VAN method lacks validity</a> (PDF), Eos, 1998-11-24, 79 (47): 573–579 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998EOSTr..79..573J">Bibcode:1998EOSTr..79..573J</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1029%2F98EO00418">doi:10.1029/98EO00418</a>, （<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/VAN_98_EOS.pdf">原始内容</a> (PDF)存档于2016-12-20）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=VAN+method+lacks+validity&rft.au=Kagan%2C+Yan+Y.&rft.aufirst=David+D.&rft.aulast=Jackson&rft.date=1998-11-24&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=47&rft.jtitle=Eos&rft.pages=573-579&rft.volume=79&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fmoho.ess.ucla.edu%2F~kagan%2FVAN_98_EOS.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1998EOSTr..79..573J&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1029%2F98EO00418&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFJacksonKagan2006" class="citation">Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140323052332/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/BSSA_S397.pdf">The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: Lessons for the future</a> (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, September 2006, 96 (4B): S397–S409 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006BuSSA..96S.397J">Bibcode:2006BuSSA..96S.397J</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1785%2F0120050821">doi:10.1785/0120050821</a>, （<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/BSSA_S397.pdf">原始内容</a> (PDF)存档于2014-03-23）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=The+2004+Parkfield+earthquake%2C+the+1985+prediction%2C+and+characteristic+earthquakes%3A+Lessons+for+the+future&rft.au=Kagan%2C+Yan+Y.&rft.aufirst=David+D.&rft.aulast=Jackson&rft.date=2006-09&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=4B&rft.jtitle=Bulletin+of+the+Seismological+Society+of+America&rft.pages=S397-S409&rft.volume=96&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fmoho.ess.ucla.edu%2F~kagan%2FBSSA_S397.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2006BuSSA..96S.397J&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1785%2F0120050821&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFJohnston2002" class="citation">Johnston, M.J.S., Electromagnetic Fields Generated by Earthquakes, Lee, William H.K.; Kanamori, Hiroo; Jennings, Paul C.; Kisslinger, Carl (编), International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology 81A: 621–635, 2002, <a href="/wiki/Special:%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E4%B9%A6%E6%BA%90/0-12-440652-1" title="Special:网络书源/0-12-440652-1">ISBN 0-12-440652-1</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Electromagnetic+Fields+Generated+by+Earthquakes&rft.aufirst=M.J.S.&rft.aulast=Johnston&rft.btitle=International+Handbook+of+Earthquake+and+Engineering+Seismology&rft.date=2002&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.isbn=0-12-440652-1&rft.pages=621-635&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook" class="Z3988"> </li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFJohnstonSasaiEgbertMueller2006" class="citation">Johnston, M. 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Y., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161220080706/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/yykvan.pdf">VAN earthquake predictions — an attempt at statistical evaluation</a> (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1315–1318 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996GeoRL..23.1315K">Bibcode:1996GeoRL..23.1315K</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1029%2F95gl03417">doi:10.1029/95gl03417</a>, （<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/yykvan.pdf">原始内容</a> (PDF)存档于2016-12-20）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=VAN+earthquake+predictions+%E2%80%94+an+attempt+at+statistical+evaluation&rft.aufirst=Y.+Y.&rft.aulast=Kagan&rft.date=1996-05-27&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=11&rft.jtitle=Geophysical+Research+Letters&rft.pages=1315-1318&rft.volume=23&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fmoho.ess.ucla.edu%2F~kagan%2Fyykvan.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1996GeoRL..23.1315K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1029%2F95gl03417&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> </li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKagan1997" class="citation">Kagan, Yan Y., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="ftp://minotaur.ess.ucla.edu/pub/kagan/save/parkf.pdf">Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment</a> (PDF), Tectonophysics, 1997-03-15, 270 (3–4): 207–219, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997Tectp.270..207K">Bibcode:1997Tectp.270..207K</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2FS0040-1951%2896%2900210-7">doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Statistical+aspects+of+Parkfield+earthquake+sequence+and+Parkfield+prediction+experiment&rft.aufirst=Yan+Y.&rft.aulast=Kagan&rft.date=1997-03-15&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=3%E2%80%934&rft.jtitle=Tectonophysics&rft.pages=207-219&rft.volume=270&rft_id=ftp%3A%2F%2Fminotaur.ess.ucla.edu%2Fpub%2Fkagan%2Fsave%2Fparkf.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1997Tectp.270..207K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1016%2FS0040-1951%2896%2900210-7&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> [<a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:%E5%A4%B1%E6%95%88%E9%93%BE%E6%8E%A5" title="Wikipedia:失效链接">永久失效連結</a>].</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKagan1997b" class="citation">Kagan, Yan Y., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160303170525/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/GJI_1997.pdf">Are earthquakes predictable?</a> (PDF), Geophysical Journal International, December 1997b, 131 (3): 505–525 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997GeoJI.131..505K">Bibcode:1997GeoJI.131..505K</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x">doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x</a>, （<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/GJI_1997.pdf">原始内容</a> (PDF)存档于2016-03-03）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Are+earthquakes+predictable%3F&rft.aufirst=Yan+Y.&rft.aulast=Kagan&rft.date=1997-12&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=3&rft.jtitle=Geophysical+Journal+International&rft.pages=505-525&rft.volume=131&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fmoho.ess.ucla.edu%2F~kagan%2FGJI_1997.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1997GeoJI.131..505K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1111%2Fj.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKagan1999" class="citation">Kagan, Yan Y., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170808165536/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/hard.pdf">Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?</a> (PDF), Pure and Applied Geophysics, August 1999, 155 (2–4): 233–258 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999PApGe.155..233K">Bibcode:1999PApGe.155..233K</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2Fs000240050264">doi:10.1007/s000240050264</a>, （<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/hard.pdf">原始内容</a> (PDF)存档于2017-08-08）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Is+Earthquake+Seismology+a+Hard%2C+Quantitative+Science%3F&rft.aufirst=Yan+Y.&rft.aulast=Kagan&rft.date=1999-08&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=2%E2%80%934&rft.jtitle=Pure+and+Applied+Geophysics&rft.pages=233-258&rft.volume=155&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fmoho.ess.ucla.edu%2F~kagan%2Fhard.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1999PApGe.155..233K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1007%2Fs000240050264&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKaganJackson1991" class="citation">Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D., 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title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Seismic+Gap+Hypothesis%3A+Ten+Years+After&rft.au=Jackson%2C+David+D.&rft.aufirst=Yan+Y.&rft.aulast=Kagan&rft.date=1991-12-10&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=B13&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Geophysical+Research&rft.pages=21%2C419-21%2C431&rft.volume=96&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fmoho.ess.ucla.edu%2F~kagan%2FJGR_1991_after.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1991JGR....9621419K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1029%2F91jb02210&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKaganJackson1996" class="citation">Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="ftp://minotaur.ess.ucla.edu/pub/kagan/save/kjvan.pdf">Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: comments and reflections</a> (PDF), Geophysical Research Letters, 1996-05-27, 23 (11): 1433–1436, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" 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title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Characteristic+earthquake+model%2C+1884+%E2%80%93+2011%2C+R.I.P&rft.au=Geller%2C+Robert+J.&rft.au=Jackson%2C+David+d.&rft.aufirst=Yan+Y.&rft.aulast=Kagan&rft.date=2012-11%2F2012-12&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=6&rft.jtitle=Seismological+Research+Letters&rft.pages=951-953&rft.volume=83&rft_id=info%3Aarxiv%2F1207.4836&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2012arXiv1207.4836K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1785%2F0220120107&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKaganKnopoff1987" class="citation">Kagan, Yan Y.; Knopoff, Leon, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/236/4808/1563.full.pdf">Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction</a> (PDF), Science, 1987-06-19, 236 (4808): 1563–1567 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1987Sci...236.1563K">Bibcode:1987Sci...236.1563K</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17835741">PMID 17835741</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.236.4808.1563">doi:10.1126/science.236.4808.1563</a>, （原始内容<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150924143620/http://www.sciencemag.org/content/236/4808/1563.full.pdf">存档</a> (PDF)于2015-09-24）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Statistical+Short-Term+Earthquake+Prediction&rft.au=Knopoff%2C+Leon&rft.aufirst=Yan+Y.&rft.aulast=Kagan&rft.date=1987-06-19&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=4808&rft.jtitle=Science&rft.pages=1563-1567&rft.volume=236&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencemag.org%2Fcontent%2F236%2F4808%2F1563.full.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1987Sci...236.1563K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1126%2Fscience.236.4808.1563&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F17835741&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKanamori2003" class="citation">Kanamori, Hiroo, Earthquake Prediction: An Overview, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics, 2003, 616: 1205–1216, <a href="/wiki/Special:%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C%E4%B9%A6%E6%BA%90/0-12-440658-0" title="Special:网络书源/0-12-440658-0">ISBN 0-12-440658-0</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external 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title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Palmdale+Bulge+Doubts+Now+Taken+Seriously&rft.aufirst=Richard+A.&rft.aulast=Kerr&rft.date=1981-12-18&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=4527&rft.jtitle=Science&rft.pages=1331-33&rft.volume=214&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencemag.org%2Fcontent%2F214%2F4527%2F1331.full.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1981Sci...214.1331K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1126%2Fscience.214.4527.1331&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F17812251&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKerr1984" class="citation">Kerr, Richard A., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/223/4631/36.full.pdf">Stalking the Next Parkfield Earthquake</a> (PDF), Science, 1984-01-06, 223 (4631): 36–38, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1984Sci...223...36K">Bibcode:1984Sci...223...36K</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17752978">PMID 17752978</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.223.4631.36">doi:10.1126/science.223.4631.36</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Stalking+the+Next+Parkfield+Earthquake&rft.aufirst=Richard+A.&rft.aulast=Kerr&rft.date=1984-01-06&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=4631&rft.jtitle=Science&rft.pages=36-38&rft.volume=223&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencemag.org%2Fcontent%2F223%2F4631%2F36.full.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1984Sci...223...36K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1126%2Fscience.223.4631.36&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F17752978&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKerr1989" class="citation">Kerr, Richard A., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/246/4929/436.full.pdf">Reading the Future in 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class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKerr2004" class="citation">Kerr, Richard A., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/306/5694/206.full.pdf">Parkfield Keeps Secrets After A Long-Awaited Quake</a> (PDF), Science, 2004-10-08, 306 (5694): 206–7 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15472043">PMID 15472043</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.306.5694.206">doi:10.1126/science.306.5694.206</a>, （原始内容<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110627130351/http://www.sciencemag.org/content/306/5694/206.full.pdf">存档</a> (PDF)于2011-06-27）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Parkfield+Keeps+Secrets+After+A+Long-Awaited+Quake&rft.aufirst=Richard+A.&rft.aulast=Kerr&rft.date=2004-10-08&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=5694&rft.jtitle=Science&rft.pages=206-7&rft.volume=306&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencemag.org%2Fcontent%2F306%2F5694%2F206.full.pdf&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1126%2Fscience.306.5694.206&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F15472043&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFKerr2009" class="citation">Kerr, Richard A., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/324/5925/322.full.pdf">After the Quake, in Search of the Science—or Even a Good Prediction</a> (PDF), Science, 2009-04-17, 324 (5925): 322, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009Sci...324..322K">Bibcode:2009Sci...324..322K</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.324.5925.322">doi:10.1126/science.324.5925.322</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=After+the+Quake%2C+in+Search+of+the+Science%E2%80%94or+Even+a+Good+Prediction&rft.aufirst=Richard+A.&rft.aulast=Kerr&rft.date=2009-04-17&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=5925&rft.jtitle=Science&rft.pages=322&rft.volume=324&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencemag.org%2Fcontent%2F324%2F5925%2F322.full.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2009Sci...324..322K&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1126%2Fscience.324.5925.322&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFLighthill1996" class="citation">Lighthill, Sir James (编), <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120519111526/http://www.worldscibooks.com/engineering/3006.html">A Critical Review of VAN – Earthquake Prediction from Seismic 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class="citation">Lindberg, Robert G.; Skiles, Durward; Hayden, Page, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1981/0385/report.pdf">Can animals predict earthquakes? 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title="Wikipedia:失效链接">失效連結</a>] (eBook: 978-0-203-93611-5).</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFZoback1983" class="citation">Zoback, Mark D., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/222/4621/319.1.full.pdf">Seismology [book review of Rikitake, Earthquake Forecasting and Warning]</a> (PDF), Science, 1983-10-21, 222 (4621): 319, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1983Sci...222..319R">Bibcode:1983Sci...222..319R</a>, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.222.4621.319">doi:10.1126/science.222.4621.319</a></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=Seismology+%26%2391%3Bbook+review+of+Rikitake%2C+Earthquake+Forecasting+and+Warning%26%2393%3B&rft.aufirst=Mark+D.&rft.aulast=Zoback&rft.date=1983-10-21&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=4621&rft.jtitle=Science&rft.pages=319&rft.volume=222&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencemag.org%2Fcontent%2F222%2F4621%2F319.1.full.pdf&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1983Sci...222..319R&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1126%2Fscience.222.4621.319&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> <ul><li><cite id="CITEREFZoback2006" class="citation">Zoback, Mary Lou, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/16/4/pdf/i1052-5173-16-4-4.pdf">The 1906 earthquake and a century of progress in understanding earthquakes and their hazards</a> (PDF), GSA Today, April–May 2006, 16 (r/5): 4–11 [2018-02-20], <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1130%2FGSAT01604.1">doi:10.1130/GSAT01604.1</a>, （原始内容<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20180602175027/http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/16/4/pdf/i1052-5173-16-4-4.pdf">存档</a> (PDF)于2018-06-02）</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzh.wikipedia.org%3A%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&rft.atitle=The+1906+earthquake+and+a+century+of+progress+in+understanding+earthquakes+and+their+hazards&rft.aufirst=Mary+Lou&rft.aulast=Zoback&rft.date=2006-04%2F2006-05&rft.genre=article&rft.issue=r%2F5&rft.jtitle=GSA+Today&rft.pages=4-11&rft.volume=16&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.geosociety.org%2Fgsatoday%2Farchive%2F16%2F4%2Fpdf%2Fi1052-5173-16-4-4.pdf&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1130%2FGSAT01604.1&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal" class="Z3988"> .</li></ul> </div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="外部連結">外部連結</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=17" title="编辑章节：外部連結">编辑</a>]</div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html">美國地質局對地震預測的觀點</a>（<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//web.archive.org/web/20091007165545/http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html">页面存档备份</a>，存于<a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%A1%A3%E6%A1%88%E9%A6%86" title="互联网档案馆">互联网档案馆</a>）</li> <li>潮汐力與地震的相關研究：發表於<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1967.pdf">1967</a>（<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//web.archive.org/web/20080527185218/http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1967.pdf">页面存档备份</a>，存于<a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%A1%A3%E6%A1%88%E9%A6%86" title="互联网档案馆">互联网档案馆</a>）年與<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1968.pdf">1968</a>（<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//web.archive.org/web/20080527185204/http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1968.pdf">页面存档备份</a>，存于<a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%A1%A3%E6%A1%88%E9%A6%86" title="互联网档案馆">互联网档案馆</a>）年，然而 <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20080517213651/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/myths.html#5">U.S. Geological Survey: Common Myths About Earthquakes</a>一文的觀點與之相左。</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://youtube.com/watch?v=3AkTvkQIlok">唐山大地震背后的真相</a>（<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//web.archive.org/web/20121122055930/http://youtube.com/watch?v=3AkTvkQIlok">页面存档备份</a>，存于<a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%A1%A3%E6%A1%88%E9%A6%86" title="互联网档案馆">互联网档案馆</a>）</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2012/10/270633.shtm?id=270633">日本因预测地震仍有困难废除地震预知委员会</a>（<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//web.archive.org/web/20130412085617/http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2012/10/270633.shtm?id=270633">页面存档备份</a>，存于<a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%A1%A3%E6%A1%88%E9%A6%86" title="互联网档案馆">互联网档案馆</a>）</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2011/4/246156.shtm">《自然》文章称地震不可预测或影响日本地震预报政策</a>（<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="//web.archive.org/web/20130412085610/http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2011/4/246156.shtm">页面存档备份</a>，存于<a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E6%A1%A3%E6%A1%88%E9%A6%86" title="互联网档案馆">互联网档案馆</a>）</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="参见">参见</h2>[<a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC&action=edit&section=18" title="编辑章节：参见">编辑</a>]</div> <div role="navigation" aria-label="Portals" class="noprint portal plainlist tright" style="margin:0.5em 0 0.5em 1em;border:solid #aaa 1px"> <ul style="display:table;box-sizing:border-box;padding:0.1em;max-width:175px;background:var(--background-color-base,#f9f9f9);font-size:85%;line-height:110%;font-weight:bold"> <li style="display:table-row"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17_with_transparent_background.png/28px-The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17_with_transparent_background.png" decoding="async" width="28" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17_with_transparent_background.png/42px-The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17_with_transparent_background.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17_with_transparent_background.png/56px-The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17_with_transparent_background.png 2x" data-file-width="2790" data-file-height="2776" /><a href="/wiki/Portal:%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6" class="mw-redirect" title="Portal:地球科学">地球科学主题</a></li> <li style="display:table-row"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/SanFranHouses06.JPG/32px-SanFranHouses06.JPG" decoding="async" width="32" height="25" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/SanFranHouses06.JPG/48px-SanFranHouses06.JPG 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/SanFranHouses06.JPG/64px-SanFranHouses06.JPG 2x" data-file-width="430" data-file-height="330" /><a href="/wiki/Portal:%E7%81%BD%E5%AE%B3" title="Portal:災害">灾害主题</a></li></ul></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="海城大地震">海城大地震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A2%84%E8%AD%A6%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F" class="mw-redirect" title="地震预警系统">地震预警系统</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%AD%A6" title="地震学">地震学</a></li></ul> <div style="clear: both; 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style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="collapsible-title navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r84265675" /><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r84244141" /><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Earthquake" title="Template:Earthquake"><abbr title="查看该模板">查</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Earthquake" title="Template talk:Earthquake"><abbr title="讨论该模板">论</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:%E7%BC%96%E8%BE%91%E9%A1%B5%E9%9D%A2/Template:Earthquake" title="Special:编辑页面/Template:Earthquake"><abbr title="编辑该模板">编</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="地震" style="font-size:110%;margin:0 5em"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="地震">地震</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">地震要素</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E6%BA%90" title="震源">震源</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E6%BA%90%E6%B7%B1%E5%BA%A6" title="震源深度">震源深度</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E5%A4%AE" title="震央">震央</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E4%B8%AD%E8%B7%9D" title="震中距">震中距</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A6" title="震度">震度</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A67%E7%B4%9A" title="震度7級">震度7度</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%9F%A9" title="地震矩">地震矩</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">地震观测</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible uncollapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="collapsible-title navbox-title" colspan="2"><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F" title="Template:地震度量"><abbr title="查看该模板">查</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F" title="Template talk:地震度量"><abbr title="讨论该模板">论</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:%E7%BC%96%E8%BE%91%E9%A1%B5%E9%9D%A2/Template:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F" title="Special:编辑页面/Template:地震度量"><abbr title="编辑该模板">编</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="地震度量" style="font-size:110%;margin:0 5em"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F" title="地震度量">地震度量</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">现代度量</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A6" title="震度">烈度度量</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="中国地震烈度表">中国地震烈度表（CSIS）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="欧洲地震烈度表">欧洲地震烈度表（EMS）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="环境地震烈度表">环境地震烈度表（ESI）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BF%AE%E8%A8%82%E9%BA%A5%E5%8A%A0%E5%88%A9%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="修訂麥加利地震烈度表">修訂麥加利地震烈度表（MMI）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%A2%85%E5%BE%B7%E9%9F%A6%E6%9D%B0%E5%A4%AB%C2%B7%E6%96%BD%E8%93%AC%E9%9C%8D%E4%BC%8A%E5%B0%94%C2%B7%E5%8D%A1%E5%B0%94%E5%B0%BC%E5%85%8B%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="梅德韦杰夫·施蓬霍伊尔·卡尔尼克地震烈度表">梅德韦杰夫·施蓬霍伊尔·卡尔尼克地震烈度表（MSK）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E8%8F%B2%E5%BE%8B%E5%AE%BE%E7%81%AB%E5%B1%B1%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%89%80%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="菲律宾火山地震研究所地震烈度表">菲律宾火山地震研究所地震烈度表（PEIS）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B0%A3%E8%B1%A1%E5%BB%B3%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A6%E7%AD%89%E7%B4%9A" title="日本氣象廳震度等級">日本氣象廳震度等級（JMA）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BA%A4%E9%80%9A%E9%83%A8%E4%B8%AD%E5%A4%AE%E6%B0%A3%E8%B1%A1%E7%BD%B2%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%A6%E5%88%86%E7%B4%9A" title="交通部中央氣象署地震震度分級">交通部中央氣象署地震震度分級（CWASIS）</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">震级度量</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BD%93%E6%B3%A2%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7" title="体波震级">体波震级（mb）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E6%8C%81%E7%BB%AD%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7" title="地震持续时间震级">地震持续时间震级（MD）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E8%83%BD%E9%87%8F%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7" title="能量震级">能量震级（Me）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B0%94%E8%B1%A1%E5%8E%85%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7" title="日本气象厅震级">日本气象厅震级（Mj）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%87%8C%E6%B0%8F%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E8%A6%8F%E6%A8%A1" title="里氏地震規模">里氏震级（近震震級，ML）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E5%B9%94%E6%B3%A2%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7" title="地幔波震级">地幔波震级（Mm）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9D%A2%E6%B3%A2%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7" title="面波震级">面波震級（Ms）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E5%98%AF%E8%A6%8F%E6%A8%A1" title="海嘯規模">海啸震级（Mt）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%9F%A9%E9%9C%87%E7%B4%9A" title="矩震級">矩震級（Mw）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E8%8B%8F%E8%81%94%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E9%99%A2%E8%83%BD%E9%87%8F%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7" title="苏联科学院能量震级">苏联科学院能量震级（M(K)）</a></li> <li><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%B0%BE%E6%B3%A2%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="尾波震级（页面不存在）">尾波震级（Mc）</a>（英语：<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_scale#Duration_and_Coda_magnitude_scales" class="extiw" title="en:Seismic scale">Seismic scale#Duration and Coda magnitude scales</a>）</li> <li><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%9C%89%E6%84%9F%E9%9D%A2%E7%A7%AF%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%A7&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="有感面积震级（页面不存在）">有感面积震级（Mfa）</a>（英语：<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_scale#Macroseismic_magnitude_scales" class="extiw" title="en:Seismic scale">Seismic scale#Macroseismic magnitude scales</a>）</li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">曾用度量</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BF%AE%E8%A8%82%E9%BA%A5%E5%8A%A0%E5%88%A9%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="修訂麥加利地震烈度表">麦加利-坎加尼-希耶伯格地震烈度（MCS）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BF%AE%E8%A8%82%E9%BA%A5%E5%8A%A0%E5%88%A9%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="修訂麥加利地震烈度表">麦加利-伍德-纽曼地震烈度（MWN）</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%BD%97%E8%A5%BF%E2%80%93%E7%A6%8F%E9%9B%B7%E5%B0%94%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E8%A1%A8" title="罗西–福雷尔地震烈度表">罗西–福雷尔地震烈度表（RF）</a></li> <li><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%A4%A7%E6%A3%AE%E5%BA%A6%E9%87%8F&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="大森度量（页面不存在）">大森地震烈度</a>（英语：<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omori_scale" class="extiw" title="en:Omori scale">Omori scale</a>）</li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%84%80" title="地震儀">地震儀</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E5%BA%95%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%84%80" title="海底地震儀">海底地震儀</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%BC%B7%E9%9C%87%E5%84%80" title="強震儀">強震儀</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E4%BF%A1%E5%8F%B7%E5%A4%84%E7%90%86" title="地震信号处理">地震信号处理</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E5%8A%A8%E5%9B%BE" title="震动图">震动图</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%AD%89%E9%9C%87%E7%BA%BF" title="等震线">等震线</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E6%8D%95%E6%89%8B%E7%BD%91%E7%BB%9C" title="地震捕手网络">地震捕手网络</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E4%BD%A0%E6%84%9F%E8%A7%89%E5%88%B0%E4%BA%86%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F" title="你感觉到了吗？">你感觉到了吗？（DYFI）</a></li></ul></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">理论研究</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%AD%A6" title="地震学">地震学</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E6%B3%A2" title="地震波">地震波</a>（<a href="/wiki/P%E6%B3%A2" title="P波">P波</a> · <a href="/wiki/S%E6%B3%A2" title="S波">S波</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E9%9D%A2%E6%B3%A2" title="面波">面波</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E5%8B%92%E5%A4%AB%E6%B3%A2" title="勒夫波">勒夫波</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E6%8C%AF%E7%9B%AA" title="自由振盪">自由震盪</a>）</li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E8%BD%89%E6%8F%9B%E6%B3%A2%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90" title="轉換波分析">轉換波分析</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%BD%88%E6%80%A7%E5%9B%9E%E8%B7%B3%E7%90%86%E8%AB%96" title="彈性回跳理論">彈性回跳理論</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%87%E6%BA%90%E6%9C%BA%E5%88%B6%E8%A7%A3" title="震源机制解">震源机制解</a></li> <li><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E5%8F%A4%E7%99%BB%E5%A0%A1%E2%80%94%E9%87%8C%E5%85%8B%E7%89%B9%E5%AE%9A%E5%BE%8B&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="古登堡—里克特定律（页面不存在）">古登堡—里克特定律</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E5%BA%94%E5%8A%9B" title="地应力">地应力</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A0%B4%E5%9D%80%E6%95%88%E6%87%89" title="場址效應">場址效應</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%96%B7%E5%B1%A4" title="斷層">斷層</a>（<a href="/wiki/%E6%B4%BB%E6%96%AD%E5%B1%82" title="活断层">活断层</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E9%80%86%E6%96%B7%E5%B1%A4" title="逆斷層">逆斷層</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E7%9B%B2%E6%96%B7%E5%B1%A4" title="盲斷層">盲斷層</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E6%BD%9B%E7%A7%BB%E6%96%B7%E5%B1%A4" title="潛移斷層">潛移斷層</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E6%9D%BF%E5%A1%8A%E9%82%8A%E7%B7%A3" title="板塊邊緣">板块边缘</a>）</li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%B8%B6" title="地震帶">地震帶</a>（<a href="/wiki/%E7%8E%AF%E5%A4%AA%E5%B9%B3%E6%B4%8B%E7%81%AB%E5%B1%B1%E5%B8%A6" title="环太平洋火山带">环太平洋火山带</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E9%98%BF%E5%B0%94%E5%8D%91%E6%96%AF%E5%B8%A6" title="阿尔卑斯带">阿尔卑斯带</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A5%BF%E6%B4%8B%E6%B4%8B%E4%B8%AD%E8%84%8A" title="大西洋洋中脊">大西洋洋中脊</a>）</li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E8%BF%9E%E5%8F%91%E5%BC%8F%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%B8%A6" title="连发式地震带">连发式地震带</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%95%B0%E5%B8%B8%E9%9C%87%E5%9F%9F" title="異常震域">異常震域</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%A9%BA%E5%8C%BA" title="地震空区">地震空区</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%88%86%E7%82%B8%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94" title="爆炸地震效应">爆炸地震效应</a></li> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">地震類型</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%BA%8F%E5%88%97" title="地震序列">地震序列</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E5%89%8D%E9%9C%87" title="前震">前震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%BE%A4%E9%9C%87" title="群震">群震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%8F%8C%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="双地震">双地震</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E5%9E%8B%E9%80%86%E8%A1%9D%E5%8D%80%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="大型逆衝區地震">大型逆衝區地震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%9D%BF%E5%A1%8A%E5%85%A7%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="板塊內地震">板塊內地震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%85%A2%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="慢地震">慢地震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%81%AB%E5%B1%B1%E6%80%A7%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="火山性地震">火山性地震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B0%B4%E5%BA%93%E8%AF%B1%E5%8F%91%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="水库诱发地震">水库诱发地震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B7%B1%E6%BA%90%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="深源地震">深源地震</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%81%BE%E5%AE%B3" title="地震灾害">次生災害</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%9F%E5%A3%A4%E6%B6%B2%E5%8C%96" title="土壤液化">土壤液化</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E5%95%B8" title="海啸">海啸</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%B1%B1%E5%B4%A9" title="山崩">山崩</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A0%B0%E5%A1%9E%E6%B9%96" title="堰塞湖">堰塞湖</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">防灾對策</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">地震預測</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E8%AD%A6%E7%B3%BB%E7%B5%B1" title="地震預警系統">地震預警系統</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A2%A8%E8%A5%BF%E5%93%A5%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A2%84%E8%AD%A6%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F" title="墨西哥地震预警系统">墨西哥地震预警系统</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%B4%A7%E6%80%A5%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%80%9F%E6%8A%A5" title="紧急地震速报">紧急地震速报</a>（<a href="/wiki/%E9%9B%86%E6%88%90%E7%B2%92%E5%AD%90%E6%BB%A4%E6%B3%A2%E6%B3%95" title="集成粒子滤波法">IPF法</a> · <a href="/wiki/%E5%B1%80%E9%83%A8%E6%97%A0%E9%98%BB%E5%B0%BC%E8%BF%90%E5%8A%A8%E4%BC%A0%E6%92%AD%E6%B3%95" title="局部无阻尼运动传播法">PLUM法</a>）</li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%BC%B7%E9%9C%87%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%AD%A6%E5%A0%B1" title="強震即時警報">強震即時警報</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/P-Alert%E8%A7%80%E6%B8%AC%E7%B6%B2" title="P-Alert觀測網">P-Alert觀測網</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%83%88%E5%BA%A6%E9%80%9F%E6%8A%A5%E4%B8%8E%E9%A2%84%E8%AD%A6%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B" title="国家地震烈度速报与预警工程">国家地震烈度速报与预警工程</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/ICL%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A2%84%E8%AD%A6%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F" title="ICL地震预警技术系统">ICL地震预警技术系统</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%AC%A7%E6%B4%B2%E4%B8%8E%E5%9C%B0%E4%B8%AD%E6%B5%B7%E8%AD%A6%E6%8A%A5%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F" title="欧洲与地中海警报系统">欧洲与地中海警报系统</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%9A%AA" title="地震險">地震險</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%B7%A5%E7%A8%8B" title="地震工程">地震工程</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%88%B6%E9%9C%87" title="制震">制震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%98%B2%E9%9C%87%E7%BC%9D" title="防震缝">防震缝</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%89%AA%E5%8A%9B%E5%A2%99" title="剪力墙">剪力墙</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%94%9F%E5%91%BD%E4%B8%89%E8%A7%92" title="生命三角">生命三角</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">相關條目</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/%E5%8E%86%E5%8F%B2%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="历史地震">历史地震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%88%97%E8%A1%A8" title="地震列表">地震列表</a> <ul><li><a href="/w/index.php?title=%E6%96%AD%E5%B1%82%E5%88%97%E8%A1%A8&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="断层列表（页面不存在）">断层列表</a>（英语：<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fault_zones" class="extiw" title="en:List of fault zones">List of fault zones</a>）</li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E5%85%89" title="地震光">地震光</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%9B%B2" title="地震雲">地震雲</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E8%81%B2" title="地聲">地聲</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%A9%E9%AB%94%E9%9C%87%E5%8B%95" title="天體震動">天體震動</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E9%9C%87" title="日震">日震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E6%9C%88%E9%9C%87" title="月震">月震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E7%81%AB%E6%98%9F%E9%9C%87" title="火星震">火星震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E9%9C%9C%E9%9C%87" title="霜震">霜震</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E7%89%9B" title="地牛">地牛</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E9%AF%B0" title="大鯰">大鯰</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E7%A5%9E" title="地震神">地震神</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div><img alt="分类" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/16px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/23px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/31px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="180" data-file-height="185" /> <a href="/wiki/Category:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="Category:地震">地震</a> · <img alt="分类" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/16px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/23px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/Symbol_category_class.svg/31px-Symbol_category_class.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="180" data-file-height="185" /> <a href="/wiki/Category:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E6%A9%9F%E6%A7%8B" title="Category:地震機構">地震機構</a> · <img alt="主题" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/Symbol_portal_class.svg/16px-Symbol_portal_class.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/Symbol_portal_class.svg/23px-Symbol_portal_class.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/Symbol_portal_class.svg/31px-Symbol_portal_class.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="180" data-file-height="185" /> <a href="/wiki/Portal:%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%B8" title="Portal:地球科學">地球科學主題頁</a> · <img alt="专题" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/37/People_icon.svg/16px-People_icon.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/37/People_icon.svg/24px-People_icon.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/37/People_icon.svg/32px-People_icon.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="100" data-file-height="100" /> <a href="/wiki/WikiProject:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87" title="WikiProject:地震">地震專題</a> · <img alt="模板" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Symbol_template_class.svg/16px-Symbol_template_class.svg.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="16" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Symbol_template_class.svg/23px-Symbol_template_class.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Symbol_template_class.svg/31px-Symbol_template_class.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="180" data-file-height="185" /> <a href="/wiki/Template:%E5%90%84%E5%9C%B0%E5%AE%98%E6%96%B9%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E6%A9%9F%E6%A7%8B" title="Template:各地官方地震機構">官方地震机构</a></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r84265675" /><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r84261037" /><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r79005747">.mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}</style></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox authority-control" aria-labelledby="-&#123;zh-cn:规范控制;zh-tw:權威控制;&#125;--&#123;zh-cn:数据库;zh-tw:資料庫&#125;-_frameless&#124;text-top&#124;10px&#124;alt=編輯維基數據鏈接&#124;link=https&#58;//www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q606654#identifiers&#124;class=noprint&#124;編輯維基數據鏈接" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="collapsible-title navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="-&#123;zh-cn:规范控制;zh-tw:權威控制;&#125;--&#123;zh-cn:数据库;zh-tw:資料庫&#125;-_frameless&#124;text-top&#124;10px&#124;alt=編輯維基數據鏈接&#124;link=https&#58;//www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q606654#identifiers&#124;class=noprint&#124;編輯維基數據鏈接" style="font-size:110%;margin:0 5em"><a href="/wiki/Help:%E8%A7%84%E8%8C%83%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6" title="Help:规范控制">规范控制数据库</a> <a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q606654#identifiers" title="編輯維基數據鏈接"><img alt="編輯維基數據鏈接" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/10px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png" decoding="async" width="10" height="10" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/15px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg/20px-OOjs_UI_icon_edit-ltr-progressive.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="20" data-file-height="20" /></a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">各地</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://d-nb.info/gnd/4124846-6">德国</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://id.ndl.go.jp/auth/ndlna/00574866">日本</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://aleph.nkp.cz/F/?func=find-c&local_base=aut&ccl_term=ica=ph231108&CON_LNG=ENG">捷克</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">其他</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0px"><div style="padding:0em 0.25em"> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/10638067">NARA</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>    </div><noscript><img src="https://login.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?useformat=desktop&type=1x1&usesul3=0" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; position: absolute;"></noscript> <div class="printfooter" data-nosnippet="">检索自“<a dir="ltr" href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=地震預測&oldid=84527850">https://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=地震預測&oldid=84527850</a>”</div></div> <div id="catlinks" class="catlinks" data-mw="interface"><div id="mw-normal-catlinks" class="mw-normal-catlinks"><a href="/wiki/Special:%E9%A1%B5%E9%9D%A2%E5%88%86%E7%B1%BB" title="Special:页面分类">分类</a>：<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Category:%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B" title="Category:预测">预测</a></li><li><a href="/wiki/Category:%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC" title="Category:地震預測">地震預測</a></li><li><a href="/wiki/Category:%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%83%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%AA%E8%A7%A3%E5%86%B3%E7%9A%84%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98" title="Category:地球科学中未解决的问题">地球科学中未解决的问题</a></li></ul></div><div 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177.115 1 Template:Navbox"," 7.25% 147.617 1 Template:Reflist"," 5.12% 104.204 2 Template:Navbox_subgroup"," 4.99% 101.474 1 Template:Multiple_issues"," 4.30% 87.547 1 Template:地震度量"," 3.42% 69.587 8 Template:Cite_web"," 3.15% 64.092 11 Template:Dead_link"]},"scribunto":{"limitreport-timeusage":{"value":"1.525","limit":"10.000"},"limitreport-memusage":{"value":7740118,"limit":52428800},"limitreport-logs":"anchor_id_list = table#1 {\n [\"CITEREFAHWG1990\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAcevesParkStrauss1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAggarwalSykesSimpsonRichards1975\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAlexander2010\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAllen1976\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAllen1982\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAllen1983\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAnagnostopoulos1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAnonymous1977\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFApostolidis2008\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFAtwoodMajor1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBakunAagaardDostEllsworth2005\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBakunBreckenridgeBredehoeftBurford1987\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBakunLindh1985\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBakunMcEvilly1979\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBernard1992\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBernardLeMouel1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBolt1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBowmanQuillonSammisSornette1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFBrownKulik1977\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCEPEC2004a\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCEPEC2004b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCalifornia_Earthquake_Prediction_Evaluation_Council2002\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCampbell2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCannavòArenaMonaco2015\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCartlidge2011\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCartlidge2012\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCastellaro2003\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFChi-Yu_King1983\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFChouliaras2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFChouliarasStavrakakis1999\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCiceroneEbelBritton2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFConsole2001\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFCowanNicolTonkin1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFDavies1975\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFDrakopoulosStavrakakisLatoussakis1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFEnriquez2015\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFEvans1997\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFEvison1999\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFFraser-SmithBernardiMcGillLadd1990\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFFreund2000\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGarwin1989\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGeller1991\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGeller1996a\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGeller1996b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGeller1997\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGellerJacksonKaganMulargia1997\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGellerJacksonKaganMulargia1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGersony1982b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGiesecke1983\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGlenn_Richard2001\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFGruszowRossignolTzanisLe_Mouël1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHall2011\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHamada1991\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHamada1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHamada1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHamilton1976\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHammond1973\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHammond1974\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHammond1975\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHammond1976\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHardebeckFelzerMichael2008\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHarris1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHarrisArrowsmith2006\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHayakawa2015\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHeraudCentaBleier2015\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHough2010\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHough2010b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHoughLanger2007\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFHuang2015\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFICEF2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFICEF2011\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFImmèMorelli2012\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJackson1996a\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJackson1996b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJackson2004\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJacksonKagan1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJacksonKagan2006\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJohnston2002\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJohnstonSasaiEgbertMueller2006\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJolliffeStephenson2003\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJones1985\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFJordanJones2010\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKagan1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKagan1997\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKagan1997b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKagan1999\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKaganJackson1991\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKaganJackson1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKaganJacksonGeller2012\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKaganKnopoff1987\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKanamori2003\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKanamoriStewart1978\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKapplerMorrisonEgbert2010\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKerr1978\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKerr1979\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKerr1981\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKerr1981c\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKerr1984\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKerr1989\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKerr2004\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFKerr2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLighthill1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLightonDuncan2005\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLindbergSkilesHayden1981\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLindhLocknerLee1978\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLomnitz1994\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLomnitzNava1983\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLottHartHowell1981\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLottHartVerosubHowell1979\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLudwin2001\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFLuenStark2008\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMabey2001\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMain1999\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMainBellMeredithGeiger2012\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMason2003\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMatthews1997\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMcCannNishenkoSykesKrause1979\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMcEvillyJohnson1974\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMcIntyre2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMcNally1979\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMignan2011\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMignan2013\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMiletiSorensen1990\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMillerPatrickCapatides2011\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMulargiaGasperini1992\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMulargiaGasperini1996a\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFMulargiaGasperini1996b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFOhshanskyGeller2003\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFOtisKautz1979\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFPEP1976\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFPapadopoulos2010\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFPapadopoulos2015\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFPark1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFParkDalrympleLarsen2007\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFPhamBoyerChouliarasLe_Mouël1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFPhamBoyerChouliarasSavvaidis2002\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFPhamBoyerLe_MouëlChouliaras1999\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFRachel_Abercrombie2005\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFReid1910\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFRhoadesEvison1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFRikitake1979\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFRikitake1982\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFRoberts1983\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFRoeloffsLangbein1994\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFRongJacksonKagan2003\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFRundleHollidayGravesTurcotte2012\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSaegusa1999\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSarlisLazaridouKapirisVarotsos1999\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSarlisSkordasChristopoulosVarotsos2016\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSchaal1988\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFScholz2002\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFScholzSykesAggarwal1973\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSchwartzCoppersmith1984\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFShnirmanSchreiderDmitrieva1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSibson1986\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSouthern_SAF_Working_Group1991\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSpenceHerrmannJohnstonReagor1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFStark1997\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFStavrakakisDrakopoulos1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSteinFriedrichNewman2005\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSteinNewman2004\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFStiros1997\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFSykesShawScholz1999\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFT._Bleier_and_F._Freund2005\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFThe_Guardian,_5_April2010\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFThe_Telegraph,_6_April2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFThomas1983\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFThomasLoveJohnston2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFTiampoShcherbakov2012\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFTierney1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFTurner1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFUCERF2008\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFUSGS_Circular_7291976\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFUSGS_staff1990\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFUyeda1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFUyeda1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFUyeda2000\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFUyedaKamogawa2008\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFUyedaNagaoKamogawa2009\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosAlexopoulos1984a\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosAlexopoulos1984b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosAlexopoulosLazaridou1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosAlexopoulosNomicos1981\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosAlexopoulosNomicosLazaridou1986\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosAlexopoulosNomicosLazaridou1988\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosEftaxiasLazaridou1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosLazaridou1991\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosLazaridou1996b\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosLazaridouEftaxiasAntonopoulos1996a\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosLazaridouHadjicontis1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosSarlisLazaridouKapiris1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVarotsosSarlisSkordas2011\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFVidale1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWade1977\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWangChenSunWang2006\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWard1978\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWellsCoppersmith1994\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWhitcomb1977\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWhithamBerryHeidebrechtKanasewich1976\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWoithPetersenHainzlDahm2018\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWoodGutenberg1935\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWyss1991a\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWyss1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWyssAllmann1996\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFWyssBooth1997\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFYoshii1993\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFZechar2008\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFZecharJordan2008\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFZecharSchorlemmerLiukisYu2010\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFZivCochardSchmittbuhl2007\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFZoback1983\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREFZoback2006\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREF夏玉胜1995\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREF张晓东1995\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREF朱令人1998\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREF李宣瑚、王瑜青1995\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREF杨立明2004\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREF王2002\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREF苏有锦2004\"] = 1,\n [\"CITEREF钱钢2008\"] = 1,\n}\ntemplate_list = table#1 {\n [\"-\"] = 1,\n [\"About\"] = 1,\n [\"Authority control\"] = 1,\n [\"Citation\"] = 207,\n [\"Cite book\"] = 1,\n [\"Cite journal\"] = 10,\n [\"Cite journal en\"] = 1,\n [\"Cite web\"] = 8,\n [\"Dead link\"] = 11,\n [\"Disputed\"] = 1,\n [\"Earthquake\"] = 1,\n [\"En\"] = 5,\n [\"Expert\"] = 1,\n [\"Fact\"] = 1,\n [\"Fr\"] = 1,\n [\"Further\"] = 1,\n [\"Harvnb\"] = 2,\n [\"Multiple issues\"] = 1,\n [\"NoteTA\"] = 1,\n [\"OR\"] = 1,\n [\"Portal\"] = 1,\n [\"Refbegin\"] = 1,\n [\"Refend\"] = 1,\n [\"Refimprove\"] = 1,\n [\"Reflist\"] = 1,\n [\"Seealso\"] = 1,\n [\"Wayback\"] = 8,\n}\narticle_whitelist = table#1 {\n}\n","limitreport-profile":[["MediaWiki\\Extension\\Scribunto\\Engines\\LuaSandbox\\LuaSandboxCallback::find","260","17.6"],["?","200","13.5"],["MediaWiki\\Extension\\Scribunto\\Engines\\LuaSandbox\\LuaSandboxCallback::callParserFunction","160","10.8"],["recursiveClone \u003CmwInit.lua:45\u003E","140","9.5"],["dataWrapper \u003Cmw.lua:672\u003E","120","8.1"],["\u003Cmw.lua:694\u003E","120","8.1"],["(for generator)","40","2.7"],["pairs","40","2.7"],["gsub","40","2.7"],["_dumpObject \u003Cmw.lua:568\u003E","40","2.7"],["[others]","320","21.6"]]},"cachereport":{"origin":"mw-api-int.codfw.main-67794785f5-hhfdt","timestamp":"20250228155042","ttl":2592000,"transientcontent":false}}});});</script> <script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"Article","name":"\u5730\u9707\u9810\u6e2c","url":"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C%87%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC","sameAs":"http:\/\/www.wikidata.org\/entity\/Q606654","mainEntity":"http:\/\/www.wikidata.org\/entity\/Q606654","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"\u7ef4\u57fa\u5a92\u4f53\u9879\u76ee\u8d21\u732e\u8005"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Wikimedia Foundation, 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