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中國人為何湧入股市「賭場」 - 紐約時報中文網

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data-url="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20241022/china-stocks-investing/zh-hant/" style="display: none;"></div><script src="https://d.line-scdn.net/r/web/social-plugin/js/thirdparty/loader.min.js" async="async" defer="defer"></script></li><!-- <li> --><!-- <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="JS_shareForQrcode" data-url="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20241022/china-stocks-investing/zh-hant/" data-headline="%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E4%BA%BA%E7%82%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%B9%A7%E5%85%A5%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E3%80%8C%E8%B3%AD%E5%A0%B4%E3%80%8D"> --><!-- <i class="icon-qrcode"></i> --><!-- </a> --><!-- </li> --></ul><div class="share-btn"><i class="icon-forward"></i></div></div></div></div></div><article class="article-content article-dual font-normal"><div class="article-header"><header><small>新新世界</small><h1>中國人為何湧入股市「賭場」</h1><h1 class="en-title">Why Chinese Are Rushing Into a ‘Casino’ Stock Market</h1></header><div class="byline-row"><div class="byline-box"><div class="byline"><address>袁莉</address><time pudate="2024-10-22 11:04:15" datetime="2024-10-22 11:04:15">2024年10月22日</time></div><div class="share-btn"><i class="icon-forward"></i></div></div></div></div><figure class="article-span-photo"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/business/00nw-stocks/00nw-stocks-master1050.jpg" width="1050" height="735" alt=""><figcaption><span></span> <cite>Lisk Feng</cite></figcaption></figure><div class="row"><section class="article-body"><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">They call China’s stock market a “casino,” yet they are rushing in. They are betting money that the government really does want to finally crawl out of the hole it has dug. They are speculating, looking for short-term gains, with a great degree of uneasiness.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">他們把中國的股市稱為「賭場」,然而卻對其趨之若鶩。他們投入資金,賭的是政府確實終於想讓經濟走出泥潭,而這個經濟困境此前是政府一手創造出來的。他們懷著極為不安的心情投機,尋求短期收益。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/china-economy-finance-minister.html">flurry</a> of policies by Beijing in recent weeks meant to stimulate the domestic <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/business/china-economy-consumption.html">economy</a> has spurred China’s middle class to invest more in stocks, prompting the country’s biggest <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html">rally</a> since 2008.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">中國政府在最近幾週<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20241014/china-economy-finance-minister/">接二連三地</a>出台了旨在刺激國內<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240903/china-economy-consumption/">經濟</a>的政策,激發了中國的中產階級加大對股市的投資,推動股市出現了2008年以來的最大<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20241008/china-stocks-csi-300/">反彈</a>。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">In recent interviews, investors said that doing something, even putting their savings into a market full of risks, gives them a sense of control when their country seems to be going astray. They worry that the government is doing more to prime the market than to help the economy, but for now they are clinging to a familiar, bubbly feeling in an era of deflation.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">在最近的採訪中,投資者表示,在國家似乎走錯道路的時候做點什麼,甚至是將積蓄投入一個充滿風險的市場,讓他們有一種掌控感。雖然他們擔心政府的所作所為更多地是刺激市場,而不是對經濟增長有所幫助,但在目前的通貨緊縮階段,他們仍不願放棄一種熟悉的、充滿泡沫的感覺。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">“We are all ‘<a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://chinaheritage.net/journal/xi-jinpings-harvest-from-reaping-garlic-chives-to-exploiting-huminerals/">garlic chives</a>’ to be harvested by our ruler,” said Wang, a Beijing resident who said he invested more than $150,000. He invoked an online meme that says Chinese people are vegetables waiting to be plucked from the ground. “But if I take the initiative to participate in the market, at least I have some control over my destiny,” he said.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">「我們都是『<a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://chinaheritage.net/journal/xi-jinpings-harvest-from-reaping-garlic-chives-to-exploiting-huminerals/">韭菜</a>』,任由統治者收割,」家住北京的王先生說,他在股市投了100多萬元。他用的「韭菜」一詞是中國網民們描述老百姓就像這種菜,隨時可從地裡收割的說法。「但如果我主動參與到股市中去,至少我能控制自己的命運,」他說。</div></div></div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-0" data-target="{&quot;pos&quot;:&quot;mid1&quot;,&quot;adv&quot;:&quot;&quot;}"><small>廣告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">Mr. Wang was one of 10 Chinese investors I interviewed last week, some by video and others by email and text message exchanges. All of them are professionals or business owners. They have money to invest but are not super rich.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">王先生是我上週採訪的十名中國投資者之一,採訪是通過影片通話、電子郵件或短訊進行的。他們都是專業人士或企業主。他們有錢投資,但都不是超級富豪。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">They all spoke on condition that I use only their surnames for fear of retribution. The government has censored articles and comments critical of its recent measures, which some said is contributing more to the market rally than it will to economic revival.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">他們都要求我在文章中不要透露他們的全名,以免遭到報復。政府已審查了批評其近期措施的文章和評論,一些人說,這些措施刺激股市反彈的貢獻大於推動經濟復甦的貢獻。</div></div></div><figure class="article-inline-photo large"><div class="img-box"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/18/multimedia/00newworld-vqwf/00newworld-vqwf-master1050.jpg" alt="上海證券交易所的工作人員,攝於1992年。中國在20世紀90年代初恢復了股票交易。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/18/multimedia/00newworld-vqwf/00newworld-vqwf-master1050.jpg"></div><figcaption><span>上海證券交易所的工作人員,攝於1992年。中國在20世紀90年代初恢復了股票交易。</span> <cite>Nicholas Kristof/The New York Times</cite></figcaption></figure><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">China reinstituted <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/07/business/china-rushes-from-mao-to-markets.html">stock trading</a> in the early 1990s — part of the country’s economic reform experiment. Potential investors lined up for hours and sometimes days to get into the game.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">中國是在上個世紀90年代初恢復股票交易的,那是中國經濟改革試驗的一部分。為了開戶,想投資的人得排好幾個小時有時甚至好幾天的隊。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">Now there are more than 200 million trading accounts in China’s stock market, and virtually all are for individual investors. But less than a quarter of those accounts are actively trading. China’s stock exchanges have not turned out to be wealth-generating venues for the Chinese public, who have largely avoided the market because it was so volatile.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">如今,中國股市的交易帳戶超過2億個,幾乎全部為個人投資者。但只有不到25%的帳戶是活躍狀態。中國的證券交易所已被證明不是為中國老百姓創造財富的地方,由於波動太大,大多數老百姓避開了股市。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">Because the stock market was heavily controlled, most of China’s most competitive companies were largely unable or unwilling to be listed in their home country. There was little correlation between the market’s performance and China’s economy. The SSE composite index of companies that trade in Shanghai peaked in 2007, far before China’s economic expansion reached its pinnacle. And it lacked China’s highly successful start-ups like Alibaba, which went public in New York in 2014, and Tencent, which listed its initial public offering in Hong Kong in 2004.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">由於中國股市受到政府的嚴格控制,大多數中國最具競爭力的大企業基本上無法或不願意在本國上市。中國股市的表現與國內經濟幾乎沒有關聯。上海交易所的上證綜合指數達到最高點是在2007年,遠早於中國經濟崛起見頂的時間。而且,上證綜合指數不包括中國非常成功的初創企業,如2014年在紐約上市的阿里巴巴和2004年在香港首次公開募股的騰訊。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">Instead, people invested in real estate, which makes up about 70 percent of China’s household assets. While their wealth ballooned with rising housing prices, the government, which owns all land in the country, reaped most of the financial benefit. Now that the housing market has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/business/china-property-crisis.html" title="Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/business/china-property-crisis.html">crashed</a>, the government is luring people into the stock market.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">老百姓主要投資房地產,房地產約佔中國家庭資產的70%。雖然人們的財富隨著房價上漲不斷膨脹,但擁有全國所有土地的政府收穫了大部分經濟利益。現在房地產市場已經<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240524/china-property-crisis/">崩潰</a>,政府正在引誘大家進入股市。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">The investors I interviewed told me they know the risks they are taking in the market, but they feel they have no choice in a country where the government controls the land, the banks and which companies can list on the stock exchanges.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">我採訪的投資者告訴我,他們知道投資股市的風險,但他們覺得他們別無選擇,因為這個國家的政府控制著土地、銀行,以及哪些公司能在證券交易所上市。</div></div></div><figure class="article-inline-photo large"><div class="img-box"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/multimedia/00newworld-ztwf/00newworld-ztwf-master1050.jpg" alt="北京證券交易所,攝於今年7月。中國股市正在經歷一個上個月開始的反彈。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/multimedia/00newworld-ztwf/00newworld-ztwf-master1050.jpg"></div><figcaption><span>北京證券交易所,攝於今年7月。中國股市正在經歷一個上個月開始的反彈。</span> <cite>Adek Berry/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images</cite></figcaption></figure><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">“It’s even worse than a casino because a casino has rules, while our ‘casino’ has none,” Mr. Wang said. “Furthermore, the ‘owner’ of this casino can step in and play, and they can see our cards.”</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">「股市甚至比賭場還糟糕,因為賭場有規則,而我們的『賭場』沒有規則,」王先生說。「更有甚者,這個賭場的『老闆』能參與賭博,他們還能看到我們的牌。」</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">He said he knew the recent rally might be a “trap,” but he felt he had no choice. “This way, I can find a spot closer to the exit, so when it’s time to escape, I can run out faster than others,” Mr. Wang said.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">他說,他知道最近的反彈也許是個「圈套」,但他覺得自己別無選擇。「這樣做,我能找到一個離出口較近的地方,所以當需要逃離時,我能比其他人跑得更快,」王先生說。</div></div></div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-1" data-target="{&quot;pos&quot;:&quot;mid2&quot;,&quot;adv&quot;:&quot;&quot;}"><small>廣告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">Another investor named Wang, from Shanghai, said he put money into Chinese stocks on Sept. 30. He summed up the prevailing sentiment among the people I talked to: People aren’t investing now because they trust, or have been fooled by, the government. “It’s just one bet where they’re willing to accept the outcome, win or lose,” he wrote in an email.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">另一名來自上海的投資者也姓王,他在今年9月30日把錢投進了股市。他的說法總結了我採訪的人的普遍情緒:大家現在投資不是因為他們信任政府,或者以前被政府騙過。「這只是個他們願意下的賭注,不管輸贏,他們都能接受,」他在一封電子郵件中寫道。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">A software engineer in Shanghai named An said he lost his job and stock options at an online education start-up after the government cracked down on the industry in 2021. Then an apartment he bought wasn’t getting built. When he and other fellow home buyers protested, he was detained by police.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">上海的一名姓安的軟體工程師說,政府2021年打擊了在線教育行業後,他失去了在一家在線教育初創公司的工作和股票期權。後來,他已經付款的一套房一直沒有建成交付。他和其他購房者進行抗議後,他還被警方拘留過。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">When the stock rally started in September, Mr. An said, his wife told him, “Let’s take a gamble.” They kept aside some cash for credit card debts and an emergency fund, and they invested the rest of their money, nearly 90 percent of their cash, into the market. That was more than $300,000. They are worried about inflation soaring over the next few years if Beijing does a big spending program.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">安先生說,股市今年9月開始上漲時,妻子對他說,「我們來賭一把吧。」他們預留了一些用於償還信用卡債務的錢和應急資金,把其餘的錢(也就是他們手中近90%的現金)都投進了股市,總共投了200多萬。他們擔心,如果政府推出大規模支出項目,通貨膨脹率會在未來幾年飆升。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">They reasoned that they might lose money either in the stock market or by doing nothing if inflation eroded the value of their savings. But what if they get lucky?</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">他們的想法是,投資股市可能會虧錢,但什麼都不做也可能虧錢,因為如果通貨膨脹,他們的銀行存款會貶值。但是,如果他們運氣好呢?</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">Another investor I interviewed, Xie, is the founder of a small asset management firm in the eastern province of Shandong. He said he saw the rally as a rare investment opportunity.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">我採訪的另一名投資者是謝先生,他是山東省一家小型資產管理公司的創始人。他說,他認為股市上漲是一個難得的投資機會。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">When Mr. Xie was in elementary school in the 1990s, both of his parents were laid off from their jobs at state-owned companies. They invested their savings in China’s brand-new stock market and experienced a lot of ups and downs. Mr. Xie started trading in college and started managing money for others in 2018.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">20世紀90年代,謝先生上小學的時候,他的父母都從國企下崗。他們用積蓄投資了中國新的股市,經歷了許多漲跌。謝先生從上大學的時候開始炒股,並從2018年開始為他人管理資金。</div></div></div><figure class="article-inline-photo"><div class="img-box"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/multimedia/00newworld-qzgm/00newworld-qzgm-jumbo.jpg" alt="上海曾在1999年出現過股票全盤下跌的情況。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/17/multimedia/00newworld-qzgm/00newworld-qzgm-jumbo.jpg"></div><figcaption><span>上海曾在1999年出現過股票全盤下跌的情況。</span> <cite>Liu Jin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images</cite></figcaption></figure><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">He sensed that government policy was shifting in early September and started building his positions in stocks, thinking there should be money to be made. But he was unsettled by the opportunism that has been overflowing on social media, where some claimed that the SSE index, which has been trading just above 3,000, would reach 10,000.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">今年9月初,他感覺到政府的政策正在改變,所以開始建倉,認為應該有錢可賺。但他對社群媒體上充斥的股票投機者感到不安,網上有人聲稱,目前略高於3000點的上證指數將達到1萬點。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">He thinks the rally will be short-lived. “The financial markets cannot fix the fundamental and long-term issues China faces,” Mr. Xie said, referring to how China has made it increasingly difficult for its citizens to seek wealth and speak freely. He said younger people who are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/09/business/china-stocks-young-investors.html">throwing</a> themselves into investing should be more skeptical.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">他認為這輪反彈將是短暫的。「金融市場無法解決中國面臨的根本性的長期問題,」謝先生說,他指的是政府讓老百姓越來越難以獲得財富和自由表達。他說,<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20241010/china-stocks-young-investors/">蜂擁入市</a>的年輕人應該對股市持更多的懷疑態度。</div></div></div></div></div><div class="big_ad" id="medium-rectangle-ad-2" data-target="{&quot;pos&quot;:&quot;mid3&quot;,&quot;adv&quot;:&quot;&quot;}"><small>廣告</small></div><div class="article-partial"><div class="article-body-item col-lg-5"><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">Cheng was another investor I interviewed who believes that China is facing far bigger problems than a market rally can fix.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">程先生是我採訪的另一名投資者,他認為中國面臨著更大的問題,遠非市場反彈就能解決。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">When Mr. Cheng first wrote to me in February, he said he had just lost more than $500,000 in the stock market.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">程先生曾在今年2月告訴我,他剛在股市上損失了360萬元。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">The owner of a corporate consultancy, he found that the country’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/03/business/china-economy-private-enterprise.html">business environment</a> turned increasingly hostile to the private sector under Xi Jinping, China’s leader. “I’ve never seen anyone play such a good hand so terribly,” he wrote to me about Mr. Xi that month</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">作為一名企業諮詢公司的老闆,他發現,在習近平領導下,中國的<a href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20181008/china-economy-private-enterprise/">商業環境</a>正在變得對民營企業越來越不利。「我從沒見過有人把一手好牌打得這麼差,」他在當月聯繫我提到習近平時寫道。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">In a recent interview, he said that he’s investing in the stock market as if he were playing mahjong.</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">在最近的這次採訪中,他說他投資股市就像打麻將一樣。</div></div></div><div class="row article-dual-body-item"><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">“I’m approaching this with the mind-set of a spectator. I’ve paid for the ticket,” he said, referring to the money he lost earlier this year. “I might as well watch this tragic movie all the way through.”</div></div><div class="col-lg-6"><div class="article-paragraph">「我以旁觀者的心態來看待這件事。我已經買了門票,」他說,他指的是他今年早些時候損失的錢。「我不妨把這部悲劇電影從頭看到尾。」</div></div></div></div><div class="article-body-aside col-lg-3"></div></div></section></div><div class="col-lg-12 row author-info-container"><footer class="author-info"><span><p><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/li-yuan">袁莉</a>為《紐約時報》撰寫「<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/topic/20180823/the-new-new-world/">新新世界</a>」專欄,專注中國及亞洲科技、商業和政治交叉議題。<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/li-yuan">點擊查看更多關於她的信息。</a></p><p>翻譯:紐約時報中文網</p><div data-poster="" class=""><div data-poster="" class=""><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" 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